GCC Daily Market Update - 27 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 27 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,263.8 19,933.8 4,940.0 7,068.2 11,449.9 4,839.7 77,028.5 19,396.6 21,574.8 3,122.6 25,807.1 NA NA NA NA NA NA 56.3 (31.0) NA 12.4 (233.6) NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.1 (0.2) NA 0.4 (0.9) 3.0 4.2 2.7 4.2 7.6 5.7 4.1 5.9 (5.3) (3.9) (3.2) 10.8 14.4 7.5 13.2 6.6 4.4 7.4 1.9 (1.5) (11.8) (1.2) 10,344.4 7,166.4 4,455.8 3,551.9 5,714.4 5,726.9 1,207.9 1,555.9 2,912.5 (50.4) (24.6) 16.6 26.6 14.2 (4.1) (3.1) (0.2) (0.0) (0.5) (0.3) 0.4 0.8 0.3 (0.1) (0.3) (0.0) 0.0 5.6 2.4 3.4 5.7 2.9 4.4 2.9 4.6 1.4 (0.8) 3.7 3.4 12.7 1.8 5.9 (0.7) 7.9 4.0 55.2 53.0 3.7 1,131.9 247.3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.2 7.4 12.3 (3.3) (6.5) 47.9 43.3 61.1 6.8 14.8 Global Most major global indices were closed on Monday. Japan shares dropped as the yen gained against the dollar. Weak consumer prices and fall in household spending also weighed on the broader index. Indian stocks slid to a one-month low, with benchmark Sensex down as much as 1.1% in morning trading after Prime Minister hinted at raising taxes on stock market income. The index however recovered marginally at close, after the Finance Minister allayed fears on taxes on capital gains. China stocks rose in afternoon trading to erase earlier losses as investors bet on state-backed builders after the government announced a spending plan for public works that include 5,000 kilometers of new highway next year. GCC Gulf stocks were mixed on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s main closed 0.3% lower as the post-budget rally ran out of steam. Saudi Electricity, which was up 8.7% on Sunday on prospects of hike in domestic fuel and electricity prices, fell 2.6% during the session. Zain Saudi, however continued its upward trajectory on news of its mobile transmitter towers’ sale. Dubai’s main index rose 0.8% with amusement park operator- DXB Entertainments gaining 3.9% for the day. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark ended in green due to strong buying in blue chip stocks with Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank up 1.6%. Qatar QE index fell 0.5% as index saw a broad based profit booking for the second day on Monday. Foreign institutions remained bearish in the market and there was strong selling from non-Qatari and Qatari individual investors. While the sell-off was broad based, the pressure was more visible in Telecom and Realty sector. Large and midcap equities were on the decline in the market. Total trade volume rose 35.0% driven by Insurance sector whose trade volume tripled followed by Consumer Goods counter whose volume more than doubled. Out of 44 stocks traded, 41 exchanged hands of which 17 rose, 17 fell and 7 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.0 1.6 4.0 41.7 DSM 20 15.0 1.6 3.9 31.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.7 3.2 1,231.2 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.5 22.4 UAE (DFM) 11.6 1.3 3.9 147.4 Kuwait (KSE) 19.4 1.0 4.2 54.2 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.1 4.2 Bahrain (BAX) 9.9 0.4 4.6 2.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Ins & Re QGMD Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Barwa Real Estate Co Al Meera Cons Goods Top Losers Ezdan Holding Group Qatari Investors Group Islamic Holding Group Qatar & Oman Investm Qatar Insurance Co Close Price 47.3 10.2 20.7 33.3 179.0 3.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 2.0 7.3 3.0 2.5 1.2 1.1 1.7 (25.7) (32.1) (16.8) (18.6) (3.2) (26.8) (32.1) (15.8) (18.6) 0.4 4.2 332.6 NA 96.5 17.9 442.9 13.2 4.2 22.6 15.5 58.5 62.0 10.0 81.8 (0.3) (1.0) (1.0) (0.2) (1.3) (1.7) (1.7) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (2.5) 55.2 (21.2) (18.7) 17.7 (4.3) 55.0 (19.0) (15.8) 14.2 664.6 57.9 20.6 7.1 47.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 23.5 25.4 221.4 27.5 16.9 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 40.0 11,000 10,344.4 20.0 10,000 9,000 29/Sep 0.0 13/Oct 27/Oct 10/Nov Index Volume (mn) 24/Nov 8/Dec 22/Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,871.7 5,841.7 3,268.3 4,319.1 2,274.2 1,203.7 2,520.0 1D Change (%) (0.4) 0.3 0.0 (0.2) (0.9) (1.2) (0.0) Buy (%) 42.4 34.1 76.5 10.1 13.4 23.5 Sell (%) 45.7 22.5 68.2 10.3 21.5 31.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 27 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS     The European Central Bank (ECB) has told Monte dei Paschi that the bank needs to plug a capital shortfall of EUR 8.8bn (USD 9.2bn), higher than a previous EUR 5.0bn gap estimated. The bank has asked ECB to go ahead for a "precautionary recapitalization". (Source: Reuters) Bank of Japan Governor defended his yield curve control policy saying that the policy kept Japan's long-term interest rates from joining the uptrend in global yields and was helping the economy overcome stagnation. (Source: Reuters) Japan's consumer prices rose by 0.5% YoY in November-16 compared to 0.1% YoY gain in October. The core prices which excludes food prices however fell 0.4% YoY for the period. The decline in core consumer prices suggested that the economy still lacks enough momentum to jump-start inflation toward the central bank's 2.0% target. (Source: Investing.com) Japan's jobless rate rose to 3.1% in November-16 compared to 3.0% recorded in October while the availability of jobs improved, according to Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The jobs-toapplicants ratio rose to 1.41 from 1.40 in the previous month. (Source: Reuters)  The Deputy Energy Minister of Russia said that the country's oil exports would rise by almost 5.0% in 2016 to 253.5mn tons, and a slight increase was expected in 2017. (Source: Reuters)  The Chinese Commerce Minister said that the country's non-financial outbound direct investment is expected to hit CNY 1.12tn (USD 161.19bn) in 2016 and FDI into China will total CNY 785.0bn for the period. (Source: Reuters)  The Saudi Capital Market Authority Board approved the final version of the Parallel Market Listing Rules after the draft was published on the CMA’s website. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The bilateral trade between Indonesia and Saudi Arabia is expected to increase to SAR 17bn by 2020 under the new Saudi plans to diversify the economy, governor of Cirebon, a port city in northern West Java, Indonesia said. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) announced that it would issue a request for proposal (RFP) in February-17 to award the second cargo operator’s license at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. (Source: Arab News)  Port of Duqm Company signed three agreements with Oman Engineering LLC (OEL), Gold Fish Company (GFC) and Galfar Engineering and Contracting (GES) for a 25 year land lease agreement for a total of 10.5 hectares of land in the Port of Duqm concession area. (Source: Times of Oman)  Petroleum Development Oman has signed a partnership agreement with Innovation Park Muscat to support Omani entrepreneurs and solve key production and technical challenges. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain's consumer inflation rose 1.9% YoY in November-16. Housing and utility costs, which account for 24% of consumer expenses, rose 3.0% YoY. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which account for 16%, fell 5.1% YoY. (Source: Bahrain's statistics office)  Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz and Gulf Bank announced the successful completion of Markaz 5-year bond issue with a nominal value of KWD 25mn. The bonds are issued in two tranches, one with a fixed interest rate of 5% p.a, while the other offers a floating interest rate of 2.25% above the Central Bank of Kuwait discount rate. (Source: Gulf News) GCC NEWS  The IMF report warned against taxes on money transfer by expatriates, citing that the total remittance in in the entire Gulf region is USD 84.4bn and the 5% tax will only marginally add up to the total income. (Source: Arab Times)  The GCC industrial gases market is forecast to increase at 7.3% CAGR during the forecast period 2016-2022, and reach USD 1.3bn in revenues, a report by Persistence Market Research said. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The GCC mobile-phone market suffered its third consecutive QoQ decline in Q3-16, mainly due to the oil price-induced economic slowdown in the region, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). (Source: Muscat Daily)  Dubai Municipality is investing USD 681.2mn in construction and expansion of markets in the emirate. At present, the municipality manages about 5,000 shops, warehouses and cafeterias in 14 different markets, at a build cost of over USD 272.48mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi's stock market plans to introduce covered short-selling in Q1-17, its chief executive said, as it seeks to boost liquidity and attract more foreign investors. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Abu Dhabi International Airport received 1.86mn passengers in November-16, an increase of 4.4% YoY, it said. Passenger traffic grew 5.3% YoY to 22.3mn passengers for first 11 months of 2016, Operator Abu Dhabi Airports Company said. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Emirates Development Bank has approved a budget of USD 408.7mn (AED 1.5bn) to finance housing loans for Emirati citizens and help establish SMEs in 2017, minister of state for financial affairs and chairman of EDB said. (Source: Arabian Business)  The UAE's Al Habtoor Group will give priority business to members of the local incubation programme Dubai SME, under a new agreement with Mohammed Bin Rashid Establishment SMEs Development. (Source: QATAR NEWS  The demand for loans will remain strong in Qatar, driven by the government’s financing need in preparation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Commercial banking assets are expected to expand by an average of 12.5% YoY over 2017-20, a slowdown from 14.3% YoY over 2011-15 but still offering considerable opportunities, according to a new report by BMI Research. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade surplus in November-16 declined by 8% YoY or about QAR 800mn to QAR 9.6bn, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. However, over the month, the trade surplus 16 increased by nearly QAR 1.9bn, or 25.0%. (Source: The Peninsula)  The total exports of goods (including exports of goods of domestic origin and re-exports) declined 10.1% YoY and 0.1% QoQ in November16 to around QAR 18.7bn whereas the total value of imports of goods in November-16 declined 12.2% YoY and 17.7% QoQ to around QAR 9bn. (Source: The Peninsula)  Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani met in Doha where they discussed regional developments and bilateral ties, diplomatic sources reported. (Source: Anadolu Agency)  The Qatar Investment Authority intends to refinance their debts on Milano Porta Nuova and Varesine, the two complexes acquired in the Lombardy capital. (Source: Italy24)  The Qatar Financial Centre Authority (QFCA) said its ‘job shadowing’ programme will be a regular feature of its local youth development, in a move aimed at nurturing local talents. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar-based Gulf Contracting Company has marked the commencement of the structural concrete works for the first phase of its Al Majed Tower in Lusail City, Qatar. (Source: Construction Week Online) Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 27 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0485 USD/QAR 3.6414 117.1000 EUR/QAR 3.8180 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2312 JPY/QAR 0.0311 USD/CHF 1.0272 GBP/QAR 4.4833 USD/CAD 1.3509 CHF/QAR 3.5450 AUD/USD 0.7192 CAD/QAR 2.6955 NZD/USD 0.6901 AUD/QAR 2.6189 USD/INR 67.2363 INR/QAR 0.0542 USD/TRY 3.5123 TRY/QAR 1.0368 USD/ZAR 14.0112 ZAR/QAR 0.2599 USD/BRL 3.2800 BRL/QAR 1.1102 FX Commentary During the Asian session on Monday, JPY gained against the USD, after US Treasury yields dipped on Friday in response to a release of economic data showing weakness in household income. The AUD, which dipped on Friday to its lowest level since May, following a media report saying Chinese President Xi Jinping was open to growth China's economy falling below 6.5%, closed largely flat yesterday, as volumes were thin, with most major markets closed on account of Christmas. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.71 0.76 1.00 1.69 (0.41) (0.37) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.29 1.38 1.47 1.83 2.44 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.25 1.82 2.04 2.44 2.0% EIBOR 0.52 0.78 0.96 1.44 2.14 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 0.0% 2.50% 0.88% 1.71% 0.64% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.96% 2.96% 2.17% 2.52% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.64% 3.15% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.3 3.0 Turkey 267.8 6.1 UK 33.4 (15.6) Brazil 282.0 (65.1) Germany 22.8 (1.1) Egypt 453.4 (23.3) France 38.2 (12.0) Abu Dhabi 159.4 (25.8) 2.28% 2.08% 2.0% 1.51% 1.93% 1.70% 1.0% 2.46% 2.17% 2.70% 2.59% Italy 1.14% Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 61.9 (41.3) Bahrain 284.4 (111.2) 1,093.3 (96.4) Dubai 142.0 (55.1) Russia 170.2 (89.8) Qatar 78.4 (42.5) Japan 29.1 (16.4) Saudi Arabia 112.6 (71.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 08:00 Japan Housing Starts YoY Nov 9.80% 13.70% 08:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts Nov 0.973m 0.983m 08:00 Japan Construction Orders YoY Nov - 15.20% 08:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Dec - 48.3 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Oct - 191.78 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Oct 0.51% 0.37% 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Oct 5.00% 5.08% 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Oct - 184.8 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Oct - 5.46% 18:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Dec 108.5 107.1 18:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Dec 5 4 02:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM Nov P 1.70% 0.00% 02:50 Japan Industrial Production YoY Nov P 4.70% (1.40%) 02:50 Japan Retail Trade YoY Nov 0.80% (0.20%) 02:50 Japan Retail Sales MoM Nov (0.50%) 2.50% 02:50 Japan Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Nov (0.50%) (1.00%) 07:00 Japan Vehicle Production YoY Nov - (3.90%) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 27 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.7 0.0 8.7 1.7 6.0 4.7 3.2 0.0 4.2 6.4 1.8 6.0 3.4 7.9 6.3 5.0 5.5 5.3 0.0 9.1 4.2 4.8 5.7 7.0 3.2 4.3 4.5 3.4 2.1 6.8 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.4 2.3 2.9 7.9 2.8 6.6 3.2 2.0 7.5 4.4 3.0 2.2 2.8 2.2 5.5 5.3 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.7 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.4 3.1 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 16.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.4 13.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.3 11.9 11.0 27.5 11.5 20.4 7.3 22.1 13.2 11.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.7 13.8 6.2 11.4 13.5 34.3 21.1 19.1 15.2 25.4 10.6 11.1 18.6 17.8 9.4 18.6 4.2 12.5 11.7 13.2 23.7 16.2 13.0 18.7 14.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.4 16.2 13.0 12.1 12.9 14.1 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 31.0 21.0 34.6 62.0 16.8 37.3 15.8 9.8 102.5 62.6 160.3 10.0 63.0 79.0 179.0 27.5 144.1 10.2 11.0 65.0 83.0 13.6 31.1 116.5 15.6 219.4 58.5 44.0 85.7 20.7 18.5 81.8 47.3 50.7 33.3 15.5 13.8 20.1 101.5 9.4 55.2 22.8 94.8 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market informa tion, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4