GCC Daily Market Update - 24 October

Transcription

1. October 24 , 2019 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,004.5 26,834.0 7,889.5 7,260.7 12,798.2 5,653.4 99,785.2 22,625.4 26,566.7 2,941.6 39,058.8 8.5 45.9 14.9 48.3 43.5 (4.3) 1,898.8 76.5 (219.5) (12.8) 95.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 (0.1) 1.9 0.3 (0.8) (0.4) 0.2 0.9 (0.3) 1.8 (2.0) 3.0 (0.4) (5.0) 4.0 1.8 1.3 1.0 19.9 15.0 24.6 7.9 21.2 19.5 9.3 13.0 2.8 18.0 8.3 10,354.6 7,887.4 5,151.8 2,780.1 5,765.6 3,996.5 1,525.2 1,914.5 3,952.8 (21.5) 14.6 15.9 (7.6) (8.5) (10.6) (0.1) 17.2 6.4 (0.2) 0.2 0.3 (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (0.0) 0.9 0.2 (0.1) (2.5) 1.9 (0.0) 1.5 (0.5) 0.6 (0.7) 1.1 0.5 0.8 4.8 9.9 13.5 (7.6) 14.1 8.3 18.3 61.2 56.0 2.3 1,489.9 267.2 1.5 1.8 0.0 8.2 3.9 2.5 3.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 (0.0) 2.6 (1.6) 1.7 3.4 13.0 22.2 (22.0) 16.3 1.3 Global The US market ended on a positive note yesterday, as the investors assessed the recent batch of earnings reports from some of the largest companies. The S&P 500 index gained 0.3%, amid gains in Communication Services and Energy stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.1%, amid gains in Mining and Automobile Stocks. The delay in UK’s departure from EU raised concerns among investors and limited the gains in the index. The FTSE 100 ended on a positive note gaining 0.7%, supported by gains in export oriented shares. The Hang Seng index declined by 0.4%, as the government’s move to boost tourism sector failed to revive investor sentiments in the market GCC GCC stock market closed on a mixed note yesterday, amid fall in oil prices during the gulf trading session. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark ended 0.2% higher, amid gains in Banking and Media & Entertainment stocks. Sahara International Petrochemical (Sipchem) declined by 2.8%, as the company’s Q3-19 net profit declined by 38.0% YoY. Dubai’s index fell by 0.3%, amid drop in Real Estate & Construction and Banking sector. The Abu Dhabi Index inched up by 0.3% due to gains in Banking, Industrial and Real Estate stocks. Qatar The QE index fell 0.2% yesterday. Selling pressure on the part of domestic retail and institutional investors weighed on the benchmark. Trade turnover and volume declined in the bourse with Consumer Goods & Services, Banking & Financial Services and Industrial stocks together accounting for 76.4% of the total trading volume. Out of the 46 listed stocks, 45 exchanged hands, 14 advanced, 24 declined while 7 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.8 1.6 4.1 49.8 DSM 20 14.6 1.5 4.1 36.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 19.7 1.7 3.8 685.4 UAE (ADX) 15.4 1.5 4.8 34.3 9,800 UAE (DFM) 11.6 1.0 4.4 48.8 Kuwait (KSE) 14.2 1.4 3.7 94.2 9,400 28/Jul Oman (MSM) 8.1 0.7 7.5 4.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 11.4 1.0 5.1 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Medicare Group Al Ahli Bank Qatar Indst. Manuf Dlala Holding Qatar National Cement Top Losers Qatar German Co Qatar Cinema & Film Qatari Investors Group Al Khaleej Takaful Qatar Aluminum Close Price 8.0 3.6 3.7 0.7 5.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 1.7 26.0 41.4 (13.8) (33.7) (1.0) 23.3 1,767.1 27.5 27.7 40.0 12.4 (12.2) 18.1 12.1 (38.0) 112.7 NA (7.1) 718.4 15.9 0.7 2.2 1.7 2.0 0.8 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (8.2) (6.8) (2.9) (2.9) (2.5) 21.0 16.2 (40.7) 137.5 (37.9) 44.5 15,444.2 NA 33.7 4.5 17.7 (43.5) 900.7 14.8 127.7 2,308.1 16.8 NA 2,562.9 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 11,000 200.0 10,354.6 10,600 10,200 100.0 0.0 11/Aug 25/Aug 8/Sep Index Volume (mn) 22/Sep 6/Oct Index Value 20/Oct Closing Level 4,075.6 8,352.1 3,060.3 2,859.7 1,487.1 927.2 2,648.9 1D Change (%) 0.1 (1.0) (0.6) (0.4) (0.1) (0.0) (0.3) Buy (%) 25.6 20.9 46.5 14.5 39.0 53.5 Sell (%) 29.2 29.0 58.2 16.8 25.0 41.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. October 24 , 2019 GLOBAL NEWS    The US President announced that the nation is lifting the sanctions imposed on Turkey, after Turkey agreed for a permanent ceasefire in northern Syria. (Source: Reuters) Moody’s Managing Director for Credit Strategy, Colin Ellis said that substantial uncertainties remain around the timing and ultimate outcome of the Brexit. This will probably impact the spending, investment and hiring decisions in the UK for some time, which is a strong credit negative for the nation. (Source: The Irish Times) Saudi Arabia has increased its visa fee by almost 6.0x, making the Haj pilgrimage more costly, according to a media report. A single entry visa will now cost USD 533.0, up from USD 93.0, a multiple entry, 6-month visa would cost USD 800.0 and a one-year visa would cost USD 1,333.0. (Source: News 18)  Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) has signed an agreement with Japan-based MUFG Bank to promote Japanese investments in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia-based transportation company, Bahri has reported 80.5% YoY increase in Q3-19 net profit to SAR 146.7mn (USD 39.1mn), due to high growth in the maritime logistics sector and higher transportation rates. Revenues increased by 6.3% YoY to SAR 1.5bn (USD 394.6mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Germany will not oppose any proposal by the European Union to extend the timeline for Brexit beyond 31st October-19, according to a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel. (Source: The Guardian)  China’s state planner announced that the nation will implement new regulations effective 1st January-20, which guarantee equal market access and protect fair competition in the market. The nation will also set up a punitive damage system for infringements on intellectual property. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain’s Investcorp completed its third UK Industrial and Logistics Program (“UKIL III”) by acquiring a fulfilment center situated in Leeds in the UK, for GBP 16.0mn (USD 20.6mn). UKIL III comprises of 1.0mn sq. ft. of industrial and logistics assets across ten single-let industrial properties. (Bahrain News Agency)  China will boost imports of certain goods including agricultural, consumer and components products to stabilize foreign trade, as per the cabinet. The nation also plans to enhance its policies on tax rebates, trade finance and insurance, and simplify restrictions for capital account transactions. (Source: Reuters)  National Bank of Bahrain (NBB) reported a 1.8% YoY increase in its 9M19 net profit to BHD 56.0mn (USD 148.9mn). Total assets increased by 5.4% YoY to BHD 3.2bn (USD 8.4bn). (Source: Bahrain Stock Exchange)  Kuwait’s State Audit Bureau issued warning against any additional withdrawals of funds from the nation’s General Reserve Fund (GRF) and urged for economic reforms to reduce the government reliance on oil revenues. The GRF’s assets declined by 5.4% YoY to KWD 22.9bn (USD 75.5bn) in Q2-19. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait Projects Company (KIPCO) has successfully completed the issuance of a 7-year KWD 151.0mn (USD 500.0mn) bond under its USD 3.0bn Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) Program. The bond was issued at a fixed rate coupon of 4.229%. (Source: Kuwait Times) GCC NEWS  Etihad Airways and Saudia, have partnered by announcing 12 new codeshare routes for major destinations in Asia and Europe. (Source: Trade Arabia)     Dubai witnessed a 3.0% YoY increase in the foreign trade through air routes to AED 311.0bn (USD 84.7bn) during the H1-19, according to the Director General of Dubai Customs. The emirate’s non-oil foreign trade grew by 5.0% YoY to AED 676.0bn (USD 184.0nm). (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS Dubai-based techno-logistics firm, Trukkin has raised over USD 3.5mn in the recent funding round. The company raised funds from investors like Al-Namlah Family Group, the Al-Madi Family Group, and the Abanumay Family Group. The company plans to use the proceeds to expand its services across the GCC region. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based business set-up advisory firm, Creative Zone has acquired a stake in InsuranceMarket.ae, Dubai-based consumer insurance brokerage company. The acquisition aims to support growth of an ecosystem to support SMEs and entrepreneurs set up and grow their businesses in the UAE. (Source: Arabian Business)  Doha Bank reported 11.0% YoY increase in 9M-19 net profit to QAR 818.5mn (USD 223.4mn), led by robust growth in investment income and control over operating expenses. The total assets increased by 18.1% YoY to QAR 106.7bn (USD 29.1bn). (Source: Gulf Times)  United Development Company (UDC) reported 17.1% YoY decline in 9M-19 net profit to QAR 318.9mn (USD 86.9mn), due to adverse conditions in the real-estate market. The revenue increased by 3.5% YoY to QAR 1.3bn (USD 0.4bn). (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company (Qamco), a 50.0% shareholder in Qatar Aluminium Limited (Qatalum) reported net profit of QAR 60.6mn (USD 16.5mn) for the 10-months ended September19. The revenue was QAR 67.6mn (USD 18.4mn). (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC) reported a 12.2% YoY decline in the 9M-19 net profit to QAR 1.2bn (USD 0.3bn). The revenue declined by 14.8% YoY to QAR 2.0bn (USD 0.5bn). (Source: QEWCx)  Qatar Rail signed Naming Right agreements with Hamad International Airport (Qatar Airways), Qatar National Bank (QNB) and Commercial Bank. The agreement aims to promote their services at the Metro stations and reach broader market segments. (Source: Gulf Times) Nasdaq Dubai listed an USD 750.0mn sukuk issued by the emirate of Sharjah, which is its second sukuk listing in 2019 on the exchange. The total value of all five sukuks issued by the emirate and listed on the exchange has now reached USD 4.2bn, the first being listed in 2014. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi-based Etisalat Group reported a 2.1% YoY increase in 9M19 consolidated net profit to AED 6.7bn (USD 1.8bn). The revenue declined by 1.3% YoY to AED 38.8bn (USD 10.6bn). The aggregate subscriber base increased by 5.0% YoY to reach 148.0mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Average office rents in Abu Dhabi have declined by over 9.0% in YTD September-19, according to real estate consultant, Knight Frank. The Grade A office market in the emirate witnessed a 4.4% decline in rents over the same period. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance announced that the nation’s 10year USD 2.5bn third International sukuk was oversubscribed more than 5.0x with subscriptions worth USD 13.0bn from investors. (Source: Saudi Gazette) Qatar’s cabinet approved draft decision on regulating the conditions and procedures for obtaining licenses for recruiting foreign workers. The amendment aims to modernize controls over the guarantee period granted to employers requiring to recruit domestic workers. The Deputy CEO of Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB) announced the financing of subscriptions to the IPO of Baladna. The bank will finance 65.0% of the total value of shares that the existing and new Qatari customers intend to buy. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. October 24 , 2019 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1160 USD/QAR 3.6415 108.6900 EUR/QAR 4.0639 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2942 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9906 GBP/QAR 4.7128 USD/CAD 1.3072 CHF/QAR 3.6761 AUD/USD 0.6853 CAD/QAR 2.7857 NZD/USD 0.6423 AUD/QAR 2.4955 USD/INR 70.4125 INR/QAR 0.0517 USD/TRY 5.7354 TRY/QAR 0.6349 USD/ZAR 14.6454 ZAR/QAR 0.2486 USD/BRL 4.0364 BRL/QAR 0.9022 FX Commentary The USD weakened against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index declining 0.04% to settle at 97.5. The USD dropped as the GBP and EUR strengthened, after the EU leaders postponed its decision on whether to grant Britain a three-month extension for Brexit. The CAD gained against the greenback, amid gains in oil prices. The JPY fell against the USD, as the Bank of Japan is unlikely to cut the interest rate for October-19, but is expected to lower its forecast for economic growth and inflation for 2019. The TRY inched up against the greenback, after US President announced that Washington has lifted all sanctions against Ankara following the permanent ceasefire in northern Syria. The INR gained against the greenback, amid lower crude oil prices during Asian trading session. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.81 1.85 1.82 1.94 1.97 (0.57) (0.48) (0.44) (0.40) (0.28) QAIBOR 2.33 2.36 2.46 2.60 3.02 SAIBOR NA 2.15 2.23 2.30 2.32 EIBOR 1.90 2.03 2.02 2.29 2.31 BMIBOR 2.12 2.28 2.42 2.55 2.77 NA NA 2.69 2.88 3.31 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 3.04% 3.56% 4.0% 2.20% 2.25% 2.36% 2.55% 1.58% 1.58% 1.67% 1.76% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.0% 2.25% 0.0% Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 4.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5 Years CDS 3.17% 3.12% 3.09% 3.23% 2.0% 1.57% 1.60% 1.69% 1.87% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 17.6 (3.3) Turkey 365.7 (88.5) UK 29.4 (1.6) Brazil 128.0 (46.6) Germany 10.9 (1.9) Egypt 323.7 (10.9) France 1.62% Spreads 6M Change US 20.5 (9.2) Abu Dhabi 47.2 0.0 Italy 113.4 25.0 Bahrain 226.9 (45.1) Greece 174.9 (160.5) Dubai 129.5 (12.8) Russia 76.7 (49.3) Qatar 47.5 (17.8) Japan 23.5 1.7 Saudi Arabia 71.6 (6.8) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:15 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Oct P 50.2 50.1 14:45 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Oct-24th 0.00% 0.00% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-19th 215k 214k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Oct-18th -- 535.4b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 2,032.7 8.4 (0.4) 569.9 40.9 13.3 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. 641.8 (4.4) 6.2 330.7 (3.8) 6.5 Ezdan Holding Group 334.8 (2.0) 6.7 88.5 NA (40.3) Commercial Bank Doha Bank Emirates Telecom Group Co. NA NA NA 299.5 12.3 41.9 12,977.0 (1.3) 0.8 2,286.0 0.2 2.4 (2.0) Ahli United Bank 516.6 8.0 (5.8) 180.9 5.9 Saudi Investment Bank NA NA NA 311.9 (13.7) NA Bank Al-Jazira NA NA NA 256.9 0.7 2.0 40.9 2.0 (10.5) 16.0 (12.1) (18.4) National Bank Of Bahrain Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. October 24 , 2019 th QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As of 17 October 2019) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 3.3 0.0 3.9 0.0 6.2 5.3 7.3 0.0 3.3 4.1 3.1 5.8 3.4 6.1 3.9 5.4 6.6 3.5 0.0 0.0 7.1 6.3 4.1 8.4 0.0 4.7 5.5 2.9 0.0 4.9 4.1 6.9 8.2 4.6 2.4 7.8 4.7 2.9 5.2 4.4 7.3 0.0 6.9 7.3 3.9 3.4 4.0 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.2 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 0.6 2.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 1.0 2.8 2.5 0.4 3.6 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.0 2.4 0.9 1.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 2.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 12.0 10.5 (M) (ç) 9.0 (H) (ç) 6.9 13.3 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 12.3 16.2 12.8 54.8 12.8 4.6 24.9 17.2 17.6 18.7 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 8.8 9.2 16.1 11.3 (M) (ç) 7.0 16.7 33.4 (H) (ç) 12.9 14.7 10.6 14.3 19.0 16.9 8.5 15.3 14.1 14.5 14.7 8.2 38.9 (M) (ç) 10.5 14.2 13.8 35.6 15.5 11.4 14.9 13.8 14.0 14.4 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.4 (M) (ç) 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 1.3 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 (M) (ç) 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 (M) (ç) 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.1 0.7 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.4 6.9 3.8 7.8 0.9 4.0 5.6 3.5 6.7 2.2 8.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 10.1 4.5 1.2 1.9 0.9 5.5 1.1 1.0 8.5 2.2 3.3 4.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 7.2 2.4 3.2 4.9 1.2 1.1 3.0 1.8 7.0 1.1 3.6 3.0 1.6 12.4 3.4 2.8 Stock Price (QR) 3.5 4.5 0.7 2.6 2.0 1.2 3.8 0.7 0.3 15.4 9.7 19.6 0.5 3.3 7.8 15.8 2.3 22.7 0.8 0.4 6.4 13.6 0.7 1.7 0.5 11.0 2.7 0.9 15.7 1.8 3.6 6.1 2.1 1.0 3.2 3.5 6.8 3.4 0.6 0.7 1.4 7.4 1.2 4.9 2.5 6.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4