GCC Daily Market Update - 23 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,597.1 23,526.2 6,386.1 7,419.0 13,015.0 5,352.8 105,963.6 22,523.2 30,003.5 3,430.5 33,561.6 (2.0) (64.7) 7.5 7.7 (152.5) (13.4) 695.8 106.7 185.4 20.0 83.2 (0.1) (0.3) 0.1 0.1 (1.2) (0.3) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 2.2 (1.0) (1.6) (2.7) (3.8) 2.3 6.2 1.1 1.0 16.0 19.0 31.3 3.9 13.4 10.1 35.6 17.8 36.4 10.5 26.0 7,798.4 6,822.5 4,273.7 3,444.9 6,229.2 5,078.0 1,269.1 1,545.8 3,588.0 29.9 44.1 (36.5) 33.9 (2.8) 1.1 5.4 (5.5) 2.6 0.4 0.7 (0.9) 1.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.4 (0.4) 0.1 (4.5) (1.6) (4.6) (5.3) (4.4) 1.3 (0.6) (4.7) 1.7 (25.3) (5.4) (6.0) (2.4) 8.4 (12.2) 4.0 (1.6) 23.6 63.3 58.0 3.0 1,292.2 313.7 0.8 1.2 (0.0) 10.5 0.9 1.2 2.1 (1.6) 0.8 0.3 3.0 6.5 2.8 1.7 1.2 11.2 7.8 (20.0) 12.2 25.3 Source: Bloomberg Global US equity markets ended mostly lower yesterday, as the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed concerns about elevated valuations in the constantly rising financial markets and its possible adverse effects on the US economy. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones inched lower, while Nasdaq registered modest gain. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended 0.3% lower, on the back of losses in Travel sector, however, gains in the Energy sector capped the losses. The FTSE 100 index was supported by strength in Commodity stocks, however the Home Builder shares declined after the UK’s Chancellor indicated that the government would launch an enquiry in the land banks of the companies to boost the available amount of affordable homes, limited the broad market gains. The Hang Seng index breached the psychological 30,000 mark, on the back of persistent strength in the Technology shares. GCC GCC equity markets rebounded after several bearish sessions, as the investors were encouraged by gains in oil prices. The Saudi Arabian benchmark rose 0.7%, tracking gains in Utilities and Energy stocks. The Dubai benchmark outperformed its key peers, gaining 1.0%, led by gains in index heavy-weight Emaar Properties. GFH Financials was among the gainers with reports of the company being in talks with Saudi Arabian authorities to cross-list its shares on Saudi Arabian bourse. Qatar The QE index gained 0.4% yesterday, as investors shrugged off the reports that the index compiler MSCI might use offshore foreign exchange rates to value Qatar’s market. Trade turnover declined amidst higher volumes during the yesterday’s trading session, with Banking, Industrials and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 65% of the total volume. Gulf International Services advanced 6.3%, amid higher oil prices. Out of the 45 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 28 declined, 9 advanced and 2 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 11.9 1.1 5.0 54.5 DSM 20 12.5 1.2 5.0 48.4 8,500 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.2 1.5 3.5 699.4 8,000 UAE (ADX) 15.3 1.2 4.7 35.5 UAE (DFM) 21.8 1.3 4.1 82.4 Kuwait (KSE) 15.0 1.0 5.6 34.1 Oman (MSM) 12.2 1.0 5.2 4.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.0 0.8 6.2 2.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Ahli Bank Medicare Group Mesaieed Petrochem Ezdan Holding Group Gulf Int’l Services Top Losers Mannai Corporation Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Elec. & Water Doha Bank Barwa Real Estate Co Close Price 28.1 46.1 11.9 6.9 15.3 2.6 4.2 0.9 0.4 0.9 10.0 9.9 8.0 6.8 6.3 (24.5) (26.6) (24.8) (54.1) (50.8) (24.5) 2.8 8.7 (26.8) 143.5 19.7 (21.0) 120.1 13.7 (53.2) 394.7 9.4 (48.1) 2,373.2 NA 52.3 40.5 169.9 26.9 28.0 (5.2) (0.5) (1.7) (0.2) (0.1) (9.0) (1.2) (1.0) (0.6) (0.4) (34.7) (45.1) (25.2) (20.3) (15.8) (31.7) (42.9) (18.3) (15.7) (4.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 4.0 5.1 60.8 17.1 85.5 11.5 203.4 8.6 261.0 8.2 Qatar DSM Index 9,000 7,500 27/Aug 15.0 10.0 7,798.4 5.0 0.0 10/Sep 24/Sep 8/Oct Index Volume (mn) 22/Oct 5/Nov 19/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,491.6 4,154.4 2,396.4 2,862.0 1,310.2 1,015.9 1,465.6 1D Change (%) 0.2 0.3 1.2 (0.5) 3.6 0.7 1.4 Buy (%) 44.4 21.7 66.2 14.1 19.8 33.9 Sell (%) 40.4 18.1 58.5 9.8 31.7 41.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US initial jobless claims declined by 5.1% on a weekly basis to 239,000 for the week ended 18th November-17. Continuing claims rose to 1.9mn for the week ended 11th November-17. (Source: Nasdaq)  US durable good order decreased 1.2% MoM to USD 236.0bn in October-17. Shipments for manufactured durable goods rose by 0.1% MoM to USD 241.0bn, while unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods fell by 0.04% MoM to USD 1,134.6bn during the same period. Arabia)  Dubai based Emaar Development, a subsidiary of Emaar Properties, has completed the listing of its share on Dubai Financial Market, which is priced at AED 6.03 per share. Final allocations were approximately 93.8% to qualified investors and 6.2% to individual and other investors. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Azizi Development announced that it has started the construction work of its Azizi Victoria mega project worth AED 25.0bn (USD 6.8bn). The project is spread over an area of 33.0mn sq. ft. with 105 mid and high rise residential buildings. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi reported an increase in average steel prices by 22.9% YoY, power cable by 20.6% YoY, diesel by 19.3% YoY during October-17. Further the average annual prices of roofing materials and waterproofing products fell 12.6% and 9.7%, respectively, during the same period. (Source: SCAD)  Saudi Arabia’s construction sector has around 4,700 active projects amounting to USD 852.3bn and more than 700 projects in pipeline which are set to start construction works in next few months, according to BNC report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s cost of living index declined 0.2% MoM to 137.5 in October-17, driven by monthly declines in 6 sections, including, transportation (1.0%), house furnishing, equipment, and maintenance section (0.4%), food and beverages (0.3%), restaurants and hotels (0.2%) and clothes and shoes (0.1%). (Source: GaStat)  Saudi Capital Market Authority has approved the Class Action Suit Regulations and agreed to amend the Resolution of Securities Disputes Proceedings Regulations accordingly. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Bahrain Dialysis center is 63.0% completed and is expected to be fully completed by June-18, according to statement by Ministry of Works, Municipalities Affairs & Urban Planning. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain has awarded a contract to Germany based Tilke, an engineering and architecture company, for providing consultancy services for its new exhibition and conference center, which has an area of 308,000 sqm in the Sakhir region. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Census)  Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and economic activity had been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane related disruptions. However, the outlook for the inflation remains bearish and also warned about the likely impact of the rising financial market on the domestic economy (Source: CNBC)  The UK’s autumn forecast statement revealed that the UK government has kept aside an additional GBP 3.0bn over the next two years to help Brexit while reducing the growth forecasts for the next few years due to a significant downward revision to potential productivity growth. (Source: Market Insider)  Total value of the construction work done in Australia grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.7% QoQ to AUD 61.9bn in Q3-17. The value of building work declined by 0.4% QoQ to AUD 27.6bn, while residential work declined by 0.3% QoQ to AUD 18.1bn during the same period. (Source: Market Insider) GCC NEWS  GCC’s SME sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 156.0% in the next five years to reach USD 920.0bn and would employ around 22.0mn people by 2022, according to Mena Research Partners report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total asset value of 48 banks operating in the UAE amounted to AED 2.3tn (USD 720.0bn) in September-17, making it the top GCC nation in the banking sector. Saudi Banking system stood at the 2 nd position with total assets value of USD 609.0bn during the same period. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total profit of the UAE’s banking sector rose 8.0% YoY to AED 28.8bn (USD 7.8bn), the Governor of UAE central bank stated. He further added that the banks have secured very good levels of solvency due to sufficient capital buffers. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE central bank announced that it will reissue the AED 1 coins an honor to the “Mother of the Nation”. The coin would be in circulation with the immediate effect. (Source: Gulf News)  UAE central bank is planning to introduce regulations for crowdfunding in the nation as part of measures to boost financing for SMEs, its governor stated. (Source: Reuters)  UAE based Crescent Enterprises has launched a venture capital arm and is planning to invest around USD 150.0mn over the next three years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority is planning to implement projects amounting to AED 15.0bn (USD 4.1bn) to support Expo 2020, the authority’s senior official stated. (Source: Zawya)   Dubai’s electricity and water generation projects are expected to improve efficiency, increase cost savings up to AED 70.0bn (USD 19.0bn) and help in reducing carbon emission by 235.0mn tons by 2030, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority’s Managing Director and CEO stated. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based MAG Property Development signed an strategic partnership agreement with International Property Show (IPS) for 14th edition of the IPS in 2018, which acts as a platform to showcase properties to local and international real estate markets. (Source: Trade QATAR NEWS  HE the Prime Minister and Interior Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al-Thani, stated that a draft law on the Permanent Residency Law will be presented to the Advisory Council in December17. The law would allow beneficiaries to undertake commercial activities and own residential and investment properties. (Source: Gulf Times)  HE the Minister of Economy and Commerce, Sheikh Ahmed bin Jassim bin Mohamed Al-Thani, is planning to establish a joint Islamic market, based on a free-trade zone between Islamic countries. The zone would be established by removing customs and red tape gradually. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and Japan has begun the mutual visa exemption's procedures for holders of diplomatic and special passports from the two countries and granting of entry permits to airports for 90 days with effect from January-18. (Source: The Peninsula)  Oman’s first budget airline, SalamAir, has joined the network of the Hamad International Airport. The airline will operate 5 times a week between Muscat and Doha. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Electricity and Water Company announced that 93% of the Umm Al Houl power plant is completed. The plant is currently operating at 60% of its electricity and water capacity. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Engineering Business Department of Public Works Authority, Ashghal, has been awarded an ISO 9001:2015 certification for engineering support services from Afnor Groupe, an ISO member dealing with certification and standardization. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1852 USD/QAR 3.6415 111.2200 EUR/QAR 4.3159 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3355 JPY/QAR 0.0327 USD/CHF 0.9820 GBP/QAR 4.8632 USD/CAD 1.2696 CHF/QAR 3.7082 AUD/USD 0.7617 CAD/QAR 2.8682 NZD/USD 0.6883 AUD/QAR 2.7737 USD/INR 64.4250 INR/QAR 0.0565 USD/TRY 3.9183 TRY/QAR 0.9294 USD/ZAR 13.8218 ZAR/QAR 0.2635 USD/BRL 3.2248 BRL/QAR 1.1292 FX Commentary The USD weakened against its key counterparts, with the dollar index ending 0.8% at 93.242. The USD inched lower, after the minutes of US Fed’s latest policy meeting painted a dull picture about the domestic inflationary environment, which raised concerns about the pace of rate hikes during the next year. Moreover, the release of a mixed bag of macroeconomic data also weighed on the USD. The EUR strengthened against the USD, amid broad-based weakness in the greenback and as Eurozone consumer confidence index topped market expectations. The GBP lost ground during the European trading session, after the UK Treasury stated that the government had to set aside GBP 3bn for expenses relating to Brexit and it now expects the British economy to grow at a slower pace during 2018 and 2019. Strength in oil prices, supported the CAD. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.31 1.45 1.93 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.08 2.16 2.21 2.42 2.96 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.49 1.82 2.26 2.0% EIBOR 0.98 1.14 1.33 1.60 2.30 BMIBOR 1.03 1.30 1.75 2.13 2.75 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.73% 2 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 1.91% 2.32% 2.21% 2.11% 2.0% 1.0% 2.15% 1.96% 1.77% 2.53% 2.42% 1.28% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.33% 3.61% 2.04% 2.21% 2.32% 2.74% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 4.40% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 3.05% 2.11% 5 Yrs Qatar Spreads 6M Change US 28.3 UK Germany France 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 3.8 Turkey 213.2 7.1 26.0 1.4 Brazil 175.4 (67.8) 11.4 (4.7) Egypt 362.3 15.5 19.2 (11.9) Abu Dhabi 67.4 24.7 Italy 120.4 (43.4) Bahrain 280.3 52.8 Greece 471.9 (211.3) Dubai 144.0 33.5 Russia 131.4 (19.2) Qatar 106.7 43.6 Japan 32.0 5.8 91.3 (3.5) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:00 Germany GDP SA QoQ Q3 F 0.80% 0.80% 10:00 Germany GDP NSA YoY Q3 F 2.30% 2.30% 10:45 France Manufacturing Confidence Nov 111 111 11:00 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Nov P 55.9 56.1 11:30 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov P 60.4 60.6 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P 58.2 58.5 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Nov P 56 56 12:30 UK GDP QoQ Q3 P 0.40% 0.40% 12:30 UK GDP YoY Q3 P 1.50% 1.50% 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Nov-17th - 426.4b 16:30 Canada Retail Sales MoM Sep 1.00% (0.30%) 16:30 Canada Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Sep 1.00% (0.70%) 03:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov P - 52.8 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 0.9 (27.4) (3.2) (0.0) NA (34.1) Palms Agro Production Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 23 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 0.0 0.0 11.2 3.8 6.1 5.9 6.1 0.0 5.1 8.5 2.7 8.0 3.9 7.7 6.5 6.7 4.0 8.1 0.0 14.0 7.1 6.4 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 6.5 5.8 4.2 5.1 4.4 4.2 7.8 7.3 4.4 5.7 46.2 3.7 3.2 8.0 5.4 8.9 7.2 0.0 9.7 7.9 4.1 0.0 3.4 4.2 7.3 7.9 7.1 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.4 2.8 0.6 1.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.0 2.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 8.7 41.6 25.1 7.7 48.7 9.8 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 8.7 8.5 17.6 9.7 5.1 19.7 13.4 37.5 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 16.2 8.6 5.3 9.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 22.3 13.8 11.5 11.8 9.4 9.9 17.7 23.7 8.5 18.2 64.1 10.4 20.4 8.2 9.6 42.0 7.5 8.9 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.8 10.4 9.3 16.0 11.1 11.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 28.1 26.8 15.2 26.9 26.6 12.3 34.0 8.2 5.0 94.0 47.0 119.4 6.3 52.3 46.1 133.7 25.0 86.0 5.5 5.7 49.5 70.0 6.4 15.3 5.2 95.4 11.9 169.9 23.7 38.5 54.9 10.5 13.0 40.5 47.3 43.9 28.0 6.9 6.6 12.9 85.9 6.5 37.7 13.7 44.1 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4