GCC Daily Market Update - 21 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,582.1 3.3 23,430.3 72.1 6,308.6 (5.9) 7,389.5 8.8 13,058.7 64.9 5,340.5 21.3 103,911.9 (2,327.6) 22,261.8 (135.0) 29,260.3 61.3 3,392.4 9.5 33,359.9 17.1 0.1 0.3 (0.1) 0.1 0.5 0.4 (2.2) (0.6) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0 (1.4) (1.3) (3.0) (5.7) 1.1 3.6 (0.0) 0.4 15.3 18.6 29.7 3.5 13.7 9.8 33.0 16.5 33.0 9.3 25.3 7,808.2 6,804.2 4,288.9 3,416.7 6,257.7 5,085.2 1,266.0 1,566.1 3,558.1 (19.3) (67.9) 9.6 (6.4) (4.7) (12.2) (6.1) 0.1 6.9 (0.3) (1.0) 0.2 (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.5) 0.0 0.2 (4.4) (1.9) (4.3) (6.0) (3.9) 1.5 (0.8) (3.4) 0.8 (25.2) (5.6) (5.7) (3.2) 8.9 (12.1) 3.7 (1.3) 22.6 62.2 56.1 3.0 1,275.3 309.3 (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) (21.2) 2.6 (0.8) (0.8) (1.6) (1.6) 0.9 1.6 3.9 4.9 0.4 (0.4) 9.8 5.2 (18.4) 10.7 23.3 Global Most of the global equity markets ended higher yesterday. US equities settled mostly higher, with Dow Jones outperforming its peers. The small gains in the S&P 500 index were led by gains in Telecom and Financials stocks. FTSE 100 closed marginally higher, buoyed by gains from Home Builders, however GBP appreciation and weakness in Utility stocks limited the broad market gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended 0.7% higher, as failure of the Angela Merkel’s part to form coalition for the next term weighed on the EUR. The gains in Japanese benchmark was led by pullback in JPY and gains in Industrial stocks. The gains in the Hang Seng index was led by Technology stocks, as the sector was supported by heavy gains in Tencent Holding. GCC Most of the Gulf equity markets ended lower yesterday, affected by escalating geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and its neighboring nations. The Saudi Arabian benchmark ended lower by 1.0%, weighed by losses in Media and Insurance stocks. The Abu Dhabi index outperformed the major Gulf indices, as the market was supported by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, as the company announced plans for the IPO of its distribution unit. The Dubai benchmark edged lower by 0.2%, weighed by selloff in shares of Arabtec Holding and Emaar Properties. However, Aramex rose 2.0%, after appointing a new CEO, with immediate effect. Qatar The QE ended lower by 0.3%, after rising marginally in the preceding trading session. Profit booking by domestic institutional investors, weighed on the overall performance of the market. Trade turnover and volumes increased during the yesterday’s trading session, with Banking and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 70% of the total volume. Out of the 45 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 28 declined, 9 advanced and 2 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 11.8 1.1 5.0 42.2 DSM 20 12.5 1.2 5.0 38.9 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 9,500 15.0 9,000 10.0 8,500 7,808.2 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.1 1.5 3.5 657.3 UAE (ADX) 15.4 1.3 4.7 27.8 UAE (DFM) 21.6 1.2 4.2 98.2 Kuwait (KSE) 15.1 1.0 5.5 38.1 Oman (MSM) 12.2 1.0 5.2 2.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.0 0.8 6.2 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Ins Ooredoo Al Khalij Com. Bank Gulf Warehousing Co Qatar General Ins Top Losers Mannai Corporation Qatar Industrial Manu Medicare Group Qatar National Cement United Development Close Price 44.0 92.0 12.3 37.3 44.0 3.6 7.5 0.3 0.6 3.6 8.9 8.9 2.1 1.6 8.9 (6.4) (9.6) (27.9) (33.5) (6.4) (4.4) 1.8 (29.1) (30.2) (4.4) 52.2 37.0 41.5 53.6 12.8 (5.8) (2.5) (2.7) (3.4) (0.6) (9.9) (6.2) (6.2) (6.0) (4.5) (34.7) (16.8) (34.0) (31.5) (38.1) (31.8) (14.3) (32.1) (29.8) (31.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 10.8 89.4 6.9 9.5 10.8 59.6 15.4 9.7 10.3 59.6 1.2 5.1 11.2 9.1 29.3 17.7 6.3 9.7 289.9 7.5 5.0 8,000 7,500 24/Aug 0.0 7/Sep 21/Sep 5/Oct Index Volume (mn) 19/Oct 2/Nov 16/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,476.5 4,083.8 2,368.2 2,780.4 1,269.7 1,069.2 1,462.7 1D Change (%) (1.1) (3.5) (0.8) (0.6) (2.5) 7.7 (0.8) Buy (%) 44.4 22.3 66.7 6.5 26.8 33.3 Sell (%) 42.1 27.4 69.5 8.0 22.5 30.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  ECB’s President, Mario Draghi, stated that Eurozone economy is experiencing broad-based expansion driven by strong domestic demand but still inflation is yet to reach the target. He further added that ECB's recalibration of its bond-buying program would reduce monthly asset purchases to EUR 30.0bn from current EUR 60.0bn by 2018. (Source: Business Times)  The Saudi insurance market is expected to experience consolidation in the coming period, on account of tighter solvency requirements and as weaker companies merge with stronger rivals, according to Fitch rating services. (Source: Reuters)  Zain Saudi Arabia, signed an agreement with Huawei, a global ICT solutions provider, to enhance and train the distinguished human resources at Zain Saudi Arabia, as the company continue to invest in human capital. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Germany’s PPI increased 2.7% YoY in October-17. PPI for intermediate goods rose by 4.1% YoY while PPI for both, energy and consumer goods, grew by 2.8%YoY during the same period. (Source: iii)  Saudi Arabia would impose standard Value Added Tax of 5.0% on fuel effective form 1st January-18, the kingdom's General Authority of Zakat and Tax stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  RBA's Head of Financial Stability, Jonathan Kearns, stated that purchases and financing by foreigner investors and banking institutions have been noticeable in the current commercial property cycle. He further stated that the central bank is aware about the impact and would continue to monitor risks from property markets and lending. (Source: Market Insider)  Bahrain based national carrier, Gulf Air, has awarded a 15 year contract to Singapore Technologies Aerospace to provide comprehensive component maintenance-by-the-hour support for Boeing 787 aircraft component. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development has inked a loan agreement worth KWD 12.5mn (USD 42.5mn) with Egypt to fund a project that will provide drinking water in the Sinai Peninsula, the company’s Director General said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based SSH, a master-planning, building design, construction supervision and project management firm, has received a contract to design 3 packages for six plots at the Hessah Al Mubarak development in Kuwait City. It includes 82 plots for residential buildings, serviced apartments, offices and other amenities. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bank Nizwa opened its 12th branch in Al Ma’abela Oman. The new branch offers a full range of Shari’a-compliant banking services to individuals, small and medium size enterprises, corporations & government institutions. (Source: Albawaba Business)  Turkey’s non-domestic PPI increased by 4.3% MoM and 25.8% YoY in October 2017, driven by a 36.2% YoY rise in prices of energy sector and 29.7% YoY rise in prices of intermediate goods. (Source: TurkStat)  The Central Bank of Turkey has decided to launch TRY-settled forward foreign exchange sale auctions with the maximum sale position planned up to USD 3.0bn until end of 2017. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS  GCC’s construction sector is expected to reach USD 2.0tn by 2020, driven by Smart Cities and mega-projects which will drive strong demand for professional audiovisual solutions, huge back-end control rooms, according to industry experts. (Source: Trade Arabia)  GCC is expected to welcome 9.0mn Indian tourist by 2021, an increase of 50.0% from the current figures, according to Colliers International report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s industrial production index rose by 7.4% YoY and 6.2% MoM in September-17, mainly driven by increase in production of crude, natural gas, refined petroleum products and rubber and plastics. The mining and quarrying index, which accounts for 83.6%, rose by 8.3% MoM during the same period. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s export to India has amounted to USD 7.6bn, while the trade between the two countries stood at USD 8.4bn for the period 201617. India exports to Qatar reached USD 784.6mn during the same period, according to India’s Department of Commerce data. (Source: Gulf UAE has won a global bid to host the 33rd edition of World LPG Forum in 2020, an event organized by the World LPG Association, according to the senior official at the global liquefied petroleum gas industry. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE signed an agreement with Sri Lanka to increase customs cooperation and mutual assistance along with signing of a MoU to establish a joint consular committee. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Nasdaq Dubai would list Emaar Development to its futures market once the company lists its shares on Dubai Financial Market after its IPO, which is expected to be launched on 22nd November-17. (Source: Times)  Qatar and Japan trade surplus increased 34.9% MoM and 22.5% YoY to JPY 95.6bn (USD 868.4bn) in October-17, driven by increase in Qatar’s export by 12.3% YoY while decline in imports by 39.0% YoY, according to monthly bulletin issued by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. (Source: Mubasher)  Qatar’s foreign investment inflows market is expected to increase by more than USD 5.0bn if seven big listed firms raise their foreign ownership limit to 49.0%, Qatar Stock Exchange’s Products and Marketing Development Director stated. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The economy ministers of Qatar, Turkey and Iran are planning to hold a meeting to discuss on the expansion of trilateral trade, particularly after imposition of sanctions against Qatar by Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries. (Source: Siaset)  Doha Bank has passed the 1st surveillance audit of the ISO20000-2011 re-certification, which was achieved earlier in 2017, which proves that the bank includes IT service management processes, which are aligned with the business strategies of the bank. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Bank has announced the launch of its Global Cashback Programme, which offers up to 30% savings on each purchase made with a Doha Bank credit card. Moreover, cardholders would continue to earn Doha Miles on all credit card spends. (Source: Gulf Times) Trade Arabia)  Dubai based builder, ASGC Group, has been awarded with two new projects in Cairo (Egypt) by Emaar Misr. The projects includes Phase I and II of the new Uptown Cairo project, Levana, and the Crescent project within Cairo’s Mivida development. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based conglomerate company, Al-Futtaim, has inked an agreement with France-based Groupe Renault for assembling and distributing Renault vehicles in Pakistan. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based developer, Aldar Properties, stated that the phase II of Water’s Edge project, has been sold out completely, netting almost USD 218mn in sales. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit declined 9.5% YoY to SAR 48.7bn in Q317. Revenue rose by 11% YoY to SAR 142.1bn, while spending rose by 5% YoY to SAR 190.9bn. (Source: Reuters)  S&P global rating agency affirmed Saudi Arabia’s credit rating of A-/A2 with stable outlook as it expects that the government would take steps to consolidate public finances in the next two years. (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1763 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.6200 EUR/QAR 4.2835 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3265 JPY/QAR 0.0323 USD/CHF 0.9934 GBP/QAR 4.8304 USD/CAD 1.2820 CHF/QAR 3.6657 AUD/USD 0.7550 CAD/QAR 2.8405 NZD/USD 0.6809 AUD/QAR 2.7493 USD/INR 64.5950 INR/QAR 0.0564 USD/TRY 3.9289 TRY/QAR 0.9268 USD/ZAR 14.0464 ZAR/QAR 0.2592 USD/BRL 3.2574 BRL/QAR 1.1179 FX Commentary The USD started the week on a positive note, with the dollar index ending 0.5% higher at 94.104. The gains in the dollar index largely reflected the weakness in the EUR. The EUR inched lower, amid reports that Angela Merkel’s party failed to form a coalition to form government, after her victory in the recent election, which sparked political uncertainty in the largest economy of the common currency bloc. The JPY also lost ground, following the release of disappointing Japanese trade data, which state that exports from the nation grew at a slower than expected pace. Against the safe havens, JPY and CHF, the dollar remained strong, amidst risk-on mode among the investors. The CAD weakened against the USD, as investors assessed the happenings about the NAFTA negotiation talks. Moreover, weakness in crude oil prices, also weighed on the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.29 1.44 1.91 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.05 2.17 2.22 2.45 2.97 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.49 1.81 2.26 2.0% EIBOR 0.97 1.09 1.32 1.60 2.29 BMIBOR 1.03 1.30 1.75 2.13 2.75 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.75% 2 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 1.92% 2.35% 2.24% 2.14% 2.0% 1.0% 2.15% 1.96% 1.77% 2.56% 2.42% 1.28% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.39% 3.65% 2.09% 2.26% 2.36% 2.77% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 4.43% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 3.13% 2.11% 5 Yrs Qatar Spreads 6M Change US 28.3 UK Germany France 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 3.8 Turkey 216.9 7.3 25.6 3.0 Brazil 178.3 (72.8) 11.9 (4.2) Egypt 362.4 4.5 19.8 (12.0) Abu Dhabi 69.7 27.5 Italy 125.2 (41.7) Bahrain 286.4 58.8 Greece 471.3 (249.2) Dubai 141.7 30.0 Russia 135.3 (17.6) Qatar 107.6 45.3 Japan 33.4 7.1 95.6 0.5 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Sep -0.40% 0.10% 08:00 Japan Supermarket Sales YoY Oct - (0.30%) 12:00 Italy Istat Releases Italy Economic Forecasts 12:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Oct - 11.2b 12:30 UK Central Government NCR Oct - 19.3b 12:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Oct 6.5b 5.3b 12:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Oct 7.1b 5.9b 14:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Nov 3 (2) 14:00 UK CBI Trends Selling Prices Nov - 18 16:30 Canada Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Sep 0.60% 0.50% 16:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct 0.2 0.17 18:00 US Existing Home Sales Oct 5.40m 5.39m 18:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Oct 0.20% 0.70% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 21 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 0.0 0.0 11.2 3.9 6.1 5.8 6.5 0.0 5.1 8.7 2.7 7.5 3.9 7.7 7.2 6.8 4.2 8.2 0.0 13.8 7.3 6.4 7.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.1 5.8 4.2 5.5 4.3 4.5 8.1 7.5 4.5 5.4 44.1 3.8 3.4 7.8 5.6 8.8 7.7 0.0 9.8 8.2 3.8 0.0 3.2 4.3 7.3 8.1 7.1 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.4 2.7 0.6 1.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.7 0.5 1.7 1.0 2.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 8.7 41.2 24.7 7.7 46.8 9.7 12.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 8.5 8.4 18.8 9.6 5.1 17.7 13.3 36.0 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 16.5 8.3 5.3 9.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 22.3 12.7 11.8 11.1 9.1 9.7 17.5 25.3 8.9 17.8 59.6 10.6 19.8 8.4 9.0 40.8 7.5 8.7 15.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.8 10.3 9.4 15.7 11.0 11.7 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 28.1 26.5 14.9 26.9 25.6 12.3 34.3 7.6 4.7 94.0 46.0 118.0 6.7 52.2 41.5 132.0 24.0 85.0 5.4 5.8 47.8 70.0 6.2 14.1 5.2 95.5 11.0 173.0 22.4 37.0 53.6 11.2 13.6 39.6 44.0 44.9 28.4 6.5 6.4 12.8 92.0 6.1 37.3 13.8 43.3 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4