GCC Daily Market Update - 20 July

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 20 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,473.8 21,640.8 5,916.2 7,430.9 12,452.1 5,216.1 107,417.5 20,020.9 26,672.2 3,231.0 31,955.4 13.2 66.0 36.1 40.7 21.7 42.8 1,699.2 21.0 147.2 43.4 244.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 2.1 1.4 4.8 1.6 1.0 1.9 6.9 (0.1) 3.5 1.2 3.3 10.5 9.5 21.6 4.0 8.5 7.3 37.5 4.7 21.2 4.1 20.0 9,502.4 7,229.6 4,594.2 3,582.3 6,793.9 5,043.0 1,319.0 1,649.3 3,353.3 108.6 (25.1) 22.3 4.1 (19.2) (20.9) 4.1 (3.0) 18.0 1.2 (0.4) 0.5 0.1 (0.3) (0.4) 0.3 (0.2) 0.5 5.2 (2.6) 3.8 5.6 0.5 (1.5) 0.7 4.7 2.6 (9.0) 0.3 1.1 1.5 18.2 (12.8) 8.1 5.6 15.4 49.7 47.1 3.1 1,242.0 270.3 0.9 0.7 (0.0) 0.1 (2.1) 1.8 1.6 (0.7) 0.0 (0.8) 3.6 2.3 1.3 (0.0) 0.1 (12.6) (12.3) (17.4) 7.8 7.9 Source: Bloomberg Global Markets across the Atlantic traded higher yesterday, on the back of encouraging earnings results, fueling optimism among the investors. US markets ended higher, with all the three major indices ending at record high levels. Financial stocks attracted much of the market attention, after Morgan Stanley reported better than expected Q2-17 earnings. Healthcare stocks continued trading higher, despite the fading hopes of the passage of the reforms in the sector. Energy stocks picked up, as oil prices traded higher. European indices further benefitted from statement by a key policymaker, whose dovish stance ahead of the upcoming ECB meet, lifted sentiments. In UK, Reckitt Benckiser shares rose after the company reached a deal to sell its food division for USD 4.2bn. However, Mining shares retreated, on the back of losses in metal prices. In Asia, Chinese benchmark rose by 1.4%, driven by coal mining and nonferrous metal sector, after majority of the companies in the sector posted strong earnings yesterday GCC GCC markets traded mixed yesterday. Saudi benchmark traded lower, after index heavy-weight Al Rajhi Bank declined 1.6%, as the stock traded exdividend. Dubai markets inched higher, with Emirates NBD up 0.9%, as the lender reported better than expected Q2-17 earnings. On the other hand, Damac Properties declined for the second consecutive session, after falling by almost 9.0% on Tuesday. Abu Dhabi market rose 0.5%, led by gains in Emirates Telecommunication Co. Qatar Qatari markets outperformed its peer GCC indices, rising 1.2%, helped by gains in Banking shares, as recent earnings posted by the banks showcased resilience towards the ongoing political blockade. Foreign institutions were among the net buyers. Trade turnover and volumes climbed, with Telecom, Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for almost 81.0% of the total volumes. Out of 41 companies traded, 28 gained, 12 fell and 1 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.0 1.4 4.0 91.0 DSM 20 15.7 1.6 3.6 67.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.7 3.3 769.9 UAE (ADX) 16.6 1.4 4.5 34.9 UAE (DFM) 16.6 1.3 4.0 76.2 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 45.1 Oman (MSM) 11.4 1.1 5.4 3.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.2 0.8 5.9 2.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Widam Food Co Qatar German Co Qatar National Cement Qatar National Bank Vodafone Qatar Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar Navigation Salam Int’l Investment Zad Holding Co Barwa Real Estate Co Close Price 63.0 8.2 78.0 143.0 8.9 4.0 0.4 4.0 6.0 0.2 6.8 5.5 5.4 4.4 2.8 (7.4) (19.0) (0.2) (3.4) (4.7) (0.6) 311.7 NA (35.6) 195.3 NA (3.1) 182.1 11.7 4.4 346.5 10.5 (21.0) 3,880.3 NA 61.0 71.9 9.2 76.0 33.6 (1.2) (1.1) (0.1) (0.7) (0.2) (1.9) (1.5) (1.0) (0.9) (0.6) 20.6 (24.8) (16.7) (14.8) 1.1 (3.2) (20.1) (23.1) (11.6) (5.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 2.2 14.3 28.4 13.7 0.003 10.3 5.5 9.9 244.0 9.1 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 23/Apr 30.0 20.0 9,502.4 10.0 0.0 7/May 21/May 4/Jun Index Volume (mn) 18/Jun 2/Jul 16/Jul Index Value Closing Level 2,929.3 5,530.4 2,900.0 4,215.9 2,080.2 1,145.8 2,104.6 1D Change (%) 2.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 (0.5) Buy (%) 40.2 29.5 69.7 9.8 20.5 30.3 Sell (%) 41.5 25.6 67.1 12.8 20.1 32.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 20 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US housing starts surged by 8.3% MoM in June-17 to 1.2mn from the revised May estimate of 1.1mn. Building permits rose by 7.4% to 1.3mn and both single-family and multi-family construction increased over the month. (Source: Morningstar)  Eurozone house price climbed 4.0% YoY in Q1-17 from to a downwardly revised growth of 4.1% YoY in Q4-16. House prices rose 0.4% over the quarter. In the EU28, house prices grew 4.5% YoY in Q117 and increased 0.7% QoQ. (Source: Morningstar)  The Japanese government maintained its view on private consumption, business investment, exports, industrial production and corporate profits, reiterating that the economy is on a moderate recovery. It also added that economy is expected to recover in the short term, supported by the effects of the policies and led by improving employment and income situation. (Source: Morningstar)  Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Zakat and Tax (GAZT) has introduced a public consultation of the Draft Implementing Regulations for Value Added Tax (VAT), which is open for feedback until 19th August-17. This provides a second opportunity to the public to share feedback on the VAT implementation ahead of its introduction on 1st January-18. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Electricity Company’s net profit declined by 0.5% YoY in Q2-17 to SAR 2.2bn led by the rise of consumption expenses and the increase in energy purchased by independent producers. The company’s profits jumped 396.3% YoY in H1-17 to SAR 7.2bn as revenue rose by 1.0% to SAR 13.3bn. (Source: Mubasher)  Riyad Bank’s net profit fell 26.0% YoY in Q2-17 to SAR 848.0mn due to an increase of 28.2% in total operating expenses while total operating income decreased 2.1%. Bank’s net profit dropped 18.3% YoY in H117 to SAR 1.9bn. (Source: Mubasher)  Construction equipment manufacturer Chicago Pneumatic got a major contract from a Kuwait based General Transportation & Equipment Company for the supply of 100 CPLT V15 light towers for a key oil and gas project. GTE clinched the deal after taking part in a tender process in which three other suppliers were involved. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Turkey's external assets rose by 1.8% over the first five months of 2017 and stood at USD 219.4bn as on May-17. The net international investment position (NIIP), which is the gap between Turkey’s assets abroad and liabilities, posted a deficit of USD 419.5bn in May-17 against a negative USD 358.0bn at the end of last year. (Source: AA)   Turkish government's spending on research and development increased by 21.6% YoY to TRY 7.5bn in 2016. The government has allocated TRY 8.2bn on research and development for the year 2017. Kuwait based Equate Group’s president and CEO has announced that its Ethylene Unit 2 (EU2) in Kuwait has resumed normally post a brief shutdown for technical reasons during last week. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Galfar Engineering and Contracting Company has received contract worth OMR 26.2mn (USD 68.0mn) from the Ministry of Transport and Communications for works related to the Al Batinah Expressway project. The work will be completed in 426 days in addition to 30 days for mobilization. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: AA) GCC NEWS        Internet of Things (IoT) solutions market in the GCC region is poised for solid growth and is likely to be worth USD 11.0bn by 2025, according to AT Kearney. The report further added that by 2025, the sector will generate USD 14.5 in economic value for every dollar spent on it. (Source: Trade Arabia) Non-oil sectors will account for more than 80.0% of GDP in the UAE and Saudi Arabia by 2025 due to the initiatives taken by GCC governments to boost private-sector investments, construction of new tourist attractions, expanding airport capacity and digitization that will boost online activities, according to the report of Frost & Sullivan. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Emirates NBD’s net profit increased 5.0% YoY in H1-17 to AED 3.9bn (USD 1.1bn). Net interest income rose 2.0% due to loan growth and recent improvement in margins. The operating performance was also supported by a control on expenses and lower provisions. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Islamic Bank’s net profit rose by 7.0% YoY in H1-17 to AED 2.1bn as its net operating revenue increased 10.0% to AED 3.7bn. Operating expenses remaining nearly flat at AED 1.2bn. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai’s commercial real estate market has experienced a muted growth over the past six months, as per international real estate consultant Cluttons. The consultant however said that the scenario would change with Towers Business Park project which is worth AED 5.0bn and would triple the size of the wider Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) by 2024. (Source: Trade Arabia) The UAE emirate of Fujairah has signed an agreement with Niras to start the construction of the first phase of its ambitious Smart Logistics City project which will built on a 68,000 sq.m area of land. The project will be built in three phases over the next five years. The work on the initial phase will begin by end of 2018. (Source: WAM) National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) has added ‘Aslaf’ to its fleet. The carrier has a capacity of 300,000 dwt and is built by Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) in South Korea. This brings the number of VLCCs in its fleet to 39 while increasing its total fleet size to 86. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Iranian companies are seeking to invest in the Qatari market and to establish partnerships with Qatari companies to boost economic and trade ties between the two countries, said Iran’s Deputy Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Minister of Development Planning and Statistics said that the unilateral illegal land, sea and air siege imposed by the Saudi-led bloc will not deviate it from achieving sustainable development, prosperity and growth. He added that Qatar will organize a meeting of Economical and Social (ECOSOC) Forum on Financing for Development in November-17. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Chamber (QC) said that it has introduced an initiative which is aimed at identifying losses sustained by Qatari companies from the economic blockade. It added that they have published online questionnaire on its website which will aid the compensation Claims Committee in addressing the claims. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Fund for Development (QFD) said that it has started the third phase of His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa City having 700 apartments at a total cost of USD 43.0mn. It added that under the first and second phases 2,324 apartments were built at a total cost of USD 113.9mn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Bank’s net profit grew 1.0% YoY in H1-17 to QAR 716.0mn driven by strength of its core earnings. Total assets grew 5.1% YoY to QAR 91.8bn with net loans and advances expanding 6.8% YoY to QAR 59.2bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  International Bank of Qatar’s net profit jumped 20.0% YoY in H1-17 to QAR 278.0mn led by its corporate banking division. The bank continued to de-risk its balance sheet and reduce its reliance on wholesale interbank funding. The bank’s asset quality remained stable with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.2%. (Source: Gulf Times)  Widam Food report an increase of 22.5% YoY in its net profit to QAR 44.1mn in H1-17. EPS of the company stood at QAR 3.01. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 20 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1545 USD/QAR 3.6415 111.9700 EUR/QAR 4.2041 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3052 JPY/QAR 0.0325 USD/CHF 0.9556 GBP/QAR 4.7529 USD/CAD 1.2606 CHF/QAR 3.8107 AUD/USD 0.7952 CAD/QAR 2.8887 NZD/USD 0.7356 AUD/QAR 2.8957 USD/INR 63.7838 INR/QAR 0.0571 USD/TRY 3.5217 TRY/QAR 1.0340 USD/ZAR 12.9167 ZAR/QAR 0.2819 USD/BRL 3.1488 BRL/QAR 1.1565 FX Commentary The USD rebounded from its 10-month low levels, ending higher yesterday against a basket of currencies. The dollar index rose 0.2% to reach 94.791, buoyed by US housing starts, which rose higher than expectations during June-17. The EUR traded lower against the USD, after a leading European Central Bank policy maker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that the central bank needs to remain accommodative with its stance, although the inflation in the common currency bloc has reached near its target. The CAD bucked the overall trend, posting gains against the greenback. Gains in the currency were driven by better than expected Canadian manufacturing shipment data and higher oil prices. The JPY traded higher against the USD, ahead of the outcome of the Bank of Japan policy meeting. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.19 1.23 1.31 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.15) 1.84 2.00 2.22 2.48 2.96 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.93 1.14 1.31 1.55 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.50 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.12% 1.36% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.88% 3.14% 3.40% 1.82% 2.08% 2.27% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.35% 2.85% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.5 (5.4) Turkey 187.5 (93.2) UK 20.0 (13.0) Brazil 218.1 (38.7) Germany 16.1 (5.6) Egypt 407.4 (31.5) France 21.1 (20.0) Abu Dhabi Italy 143.1 (9.3) Greece 604.0 Russia 166.5 Japan 27.5 2.0% 1.60% 1.90% 2.53% 1.84% 1.0% 0.0% 2.23% 2.06% 0.90% 2 Yrs 1.44% 1.26% 1.11% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 60.9 (1.7) Bahrain 247.2 (29.9) (546.8) Dubai 131.7 (14.9) (18.8) Qatar 101.5 (16.3) (4.0) Saudi Arabia 103.3 14.9 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Period Survey Prior May (0.80%) 2.10% 14:45 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Jul-20th 0.00% 0.00% 14:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate Jul-20th (0.40%) (0.40%) 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul-15th 245k 247k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jul-14th - 410.9b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) Doha Bank Qsc NA NA NA Commercial Bank Qsc NA NA NA United Development Co NA NA NA Widam Food Co YoY (%) QoQ (%) 351.1 (0.9) (3.6) 88.4 (58.4) (3.1) 53.2 (27.0) (76.9) 35.9 146.1 18.1 36.2 31.2 27.8 Qatar General Insurance & Re NA NA NA (3.4) NM NM Saudi Electricity Co NA NA NA 2,232.0 (0.5) (54.8) Emirates Nbd Pjsc 5,385.1 5.4 3.5 2,020.6 5.8 7.9 672.2 (3.4) (3.4) 165.7 79.9 (25.1) NA NA NA 848.0 (26.0) (19.0) Emirates Islamic Bank Riyad Bank Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 20 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 13th July 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 8.2 2.0 5.6 4.8 3.5 0.0 5.0 7.2 2.3 5.8 3.3 5.1 3.7 6.6 3.5 5.7 0.0 8.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.5 3.6 2.1 6.9 5.1 4.1 3.5 4.1 1.8 4.6 5.4 2.4 7.4 4.0 0.0 7.2 5.1 3.7 0.0 3.0 3.4 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.1 1.1 2.1 0.8 2.7 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.4 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.7 4.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.2 2.9 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.7 2.4 0.5 3.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 40.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 8.9 73.8 11.3 15.5 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 10.6 9.9 24.3 11.3 7.2 33.3 14.3 47.5 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.3 11.2 6.2 12.0 15.7 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.2 17.0 14.7 21.1 10.3 10.7 17.6 33.9 9.5 19.4 13.8 15.2 17.9 9.2 15.3 24.0 10.4 12.7 15.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.0 13.1 11.3 14.2 12.5 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.5 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 29.1 24.3 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 68.1 9.6 36.8 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 5.5 22.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 33.0 30.3 19.1 30.5 51.1 13.5 42.1 14.2 7.8 95.5 55.8 136.7 8.6 79.1 81.4 136.3 29.0 112.0 7.8 9.2 58.9 78.0 11.2 21.9 101.0 13.5 206.0 48.8 43.2 71.1 17.3 14.7 70.9 33.0 64.9 34.0 12.6 11.0 17.5 94.1 8.6 47.0 18.5 73.7 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4