GCC Daily Market Update - 2 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 2 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,279.6 19,890.9 5,152.7 7,107.7 11,659.5 4,794.6 86,848.0 19,148.1 23,318.4 3,159.2 28,141.6 0.7 26.9 35.9 8.5 124.2 45.7 552.2 106.7 (42.4) NA 485.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 (0.2) NA 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 (0.2) 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.6 5.9 (0.5) 1.6 (1.4) 11.1 0.2 6.0 1.8 5.7 10,596.1 7,100.9 4,526.3 3,653.7 6,848.0 5,793.3 1,296.7 1,640.9 2,989.1 (1.1) (0.9) (22.6) 10.8 15.7 17.2 (7.0) (13.1) 3.7 (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) 0.3 0.2 0.3 (0.5) (0.8) 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) 0.3 0.2 0.3 (0.5) 4.4 0.1 1.5 (1.5) (0.4) 3.5 19.1 0.2 6.2 4.3 3.0 56.8 53.9 3.2 1,205.6 271.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 (3.0) (1.6) 2.0 2.0 1.6 (0.3) (0.6) 1.6 1.5 1.5 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) (0.2) (15.1) 4.7 8.5 Global Most major global indices closed in the green on Wednesday. In US, S&P 500 closed marginally higher, majorly supported by gains in Apple after the index heavyweight reported strong earnings. The index further benefitted from the relatively less hawkish stance adopted by Fed. European shares closed higher after three days of losses with Stoxx 600 index ending up by 0.8%. Basic resources and Industrials led gains in the index, boosted by healthy corporate results and positive manufacturing data from France, Germany and Italy. In Asia, Nikkei added 0.6%, supported by weaker yen. India’s Sensex added 1.8% after Union Budget unveiled a range of incentives for companies and geared towards boosting infrastructure and developing the rural economy. GCC Gulf stocks were mixed in Wednesday’s trade. Saudi Arabia’s index closed nearly flat as global equities and oil prices offered little positive impetus. Banks were weak with 9 of the 12 listed lenders declining. Abu Dhabi’s ADX index fell 0.5% as shares in two of Abu Dhabi's top banks fell, after their earnings release. National Bank of Abu Dhabi slid by 5.0% despite posting results in line with expectations, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank lost 2.2% after announcing a 16% YoY fall in net profit to AED 1bn. In Dubai, the index added 0.3%, buoyed by advances in mid-sized companies. Qatar QE index remained almost flat, after five consecutive days of bearish spell. Substantially weak net buying support from local and foreign retail investors along with Gulf institutions was offset by increased bullish bets by Domestic institutions. Selling pressure was majorly witnessed in the Insurance sector, which closed 0.6% lower. In terms of volumes, Realty and Telecom sector constituted more than 68% of the total traded. Out of 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 21 advanced, 14 declined and 5 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.7 1.6 3.9 62.1 DSM 20 15.7 1.6 3.8 51.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.6 1.6 3.3 1,185.2 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.4 5.4 106.1 UAE (DFM) 12.2 1.3 3.7 116.5 Kuwait (KSE) 23.2 1.2 3.5 180.1 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.2 4.9 10.6 Bahrain (BAX) 10.6 0.4 4.3 1.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Ahli Bank QGMD Medicare Group Zad Holding Co Mannai Corporation Top Losers Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Elec. & Water Co Qatar & Oman Invest. Gulf Intl. Services Qatar Islamic Insurance Close Price 37.5 10.0 65.8 88.4 84.5 1.5 0.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 4.2 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 (3.8) (1.1) 4.6 (0.9) 5.6 (18.0) (4.9) (32.5) 23.6 (3.4) 1.0 11.4 26.0 NA 265.5 21.3 0.0 10.8 8.4 7.8 32.0 226.0 10.1 29.6 53.3 (0.8) (5.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.7) (2.3) (2.2) (1.5) (1.3) (1.3) (1.7) (0.4) 1.0 (4.8) 5.3 (19.8) 18.0 (5.9) (31.2) (19.2) 339.7 18.0 35.7 128.3 5.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 31.5 16.1 27.6 32.8 13.1 Qatar DSM Index 11,500 40.0 10,596.1 11,000 10,500 20.0 10,000 9,500 6/Nov 0.0 20/Nov 4/Dec 18/Dec Index Volume (mn) 1/Jan 15/Jan 29/Jan Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,962.7 6,316.3 3,297.4 4,356.2 2,289.5 1,237.2 2,592.8 1D Change (%) 0.1 0.7 (0.1) (0.6) 0.3 (0.1) 0.6 Buy (%) 40.1 25.7 65.8 9.9 24.3 34.2 Sell (%) 36.0 16.1 52.1 8.4 39.6 48.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 2 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS    The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a range of 0.50% to 0.75%, but painted a relatively upbeat picture of the US economy. The Fed also highlighted that the unemployment rate, currently at 4.7%, was still hovering near its recent low. (Source: Reuters)  UAE national carrier Etihad Airways and German airline Lufthansa announced a deep and wide partnership that includes code sharing, catering and aircraft maintenance. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia may increase its oil investments in the US due to a more fossil fuel-oriented energy policy by the US administration of President Donald Trump, the kingdom's energy minister said. (Source: Arabian Business) US construction spending unexpectedly fell in December-16 by 0.2% MoM to USD 1.18tn as investment in private projects rose marginally and public outlays tumbled. (Source: Reuters)  Questions remain over the US growth outlook due to uncertainty over the new administration's policies, while rising protectionism in advanced economies could affect Asia's prosperity, IMF deputy managing director said. (Source: Reuters)  Authorities are preparing to shift operations from King AbdulAziz International Airport in Jeddah to the new airport, which is in the final stages of construction. The existing terminals are grossly overburdened and the new airport is intended to reduce congestion and streamline operations. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Saudi Arabian telecom operator Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) concluded a deal with a group of Saudi banks for a SAR 7.9bn (USD 2.1bn) loan. It said the new facility has 7 years maturity with 2 years grace period and 5 years repayment period and the facility is unsecured. (Source: Arabian  US private employers added 246,000 jobs in January-17, above economists' expectations, according to the ADP National Employment Report. (Source: Reuters)  Britain expects to be able to adopt the European Union's free trade agreements with around 40 countries after it leaves the bloc rather than negotiate new deals, trade minister Liam Fox said. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS Saudi Arabia will award its first tender to build 700 megawatts of solar and wind energy in September-17, with the cost of power forecast to be the lowest in the world, Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said. (Source: Bloomberg) Business)   GCC governments are expected to spend about USD 330bn on projects, which include major infrastructure contracts awarded in 2016-2019 period, according to an S&P report. The report further added that the investments would create a fertile ground for alternative forms of project finance. (Source: Gulf Times) Almost two-thirds of CEOs in Oman believe their organisations will undergo real change during the next three years and at least 96% said their organisations would continue to focus on certain core competencies to grow their business, such as innovation, according to KPMG’s 2017 Oman CEO Outlook Survey. (Source: Arabian Business)   GCC nations will require a USD 137bn investment in the power sector over the next 5 years to match an 8% average annual increase in power capacity during the period, according to Ventures Onsite. (Source: Gulf Real estate consultancy Cluttons joined hands with the Public Authority for Social Insurance to launch the mixed-use Taminat Complex in Muscat, Oman. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Ooredoo Oman promoted Abdul Razzaq Al Balushias as its Chief Financial Officer to take over from Jorgen Latte who retired on 1st February-17 from this post. (Source: Times of Oman)  Royal Dutch Shell said it will sell its stake in Thailand's Bongkot gas field to Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company for USD 900mn. Times)  Dubai expects to record a USD 680mn (AED 2.5bn) budget deficit in 2017 but this will have a minimal impact on public debt levels, according to Moody’s. Dubai is likely to see its real GDP rise to 2.9% in 2017 from an estimated 2.4% in 2016, the agency further added. (Source: Arabian Business) (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Courts handled cases worth AED 5.85bn (USD 1.59bn) in 2016, up 5% over the previous year. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai developer Nakheel’s annual net profit surged 13% YoY to AED 4.96bn (USD 1.35bn) in 2016. During Q4-16, the developer reported a 22% YoY increase in bottom line, which came in at AED 955mn. Retail revenue grew by more than 70% in 2016, with total operational leasable space rising to 4.3mn sq. ft by the end of 2016. (Source: Arabian QATAR NEWS  Qatar led its Middle East peers in terms of outbound merger and acquisition by value with deals worth USD 13.35bn in 2016. The high value was mainly driven by the USD 11.27bn investment in Russia’s Rosneft Oil Company by a consortium led by Qatar Investment Authority, according to Baker McKenzie. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total value of real estate trading in Qatar for the week ending 26th January-16 was QAR 557.1mn. The majority of the trading took place in Umm Salal, Al Khor, Al Thukhaira, Doha, Al Rayyan, Al Da'ayen and Al Wakra. (Source: QNA)  Residential rents in Qatar fell by an average of between 5% and 10% throughout 9M-16 but stabilised to some extent in Q4-16, according to a report by DTZ. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC) reported a net profit of QAR 1.54bn for 2016 compared to QAR 1.50bn in 2015 while sales increased 4% YoY to QAR 310bn in 2016. (Source: The Peninsula)  Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding reported net profit of QAR 3.8mn compared to net loss amounting to QAR 42.0mn in 2015. EPS amounted to QAR 0.13 for the period ended 31st December-16 compared to a loss per share of QAR 1.48 in 2015. (Source: QNA)  Qatar National Bank entered the ‘Brand Finance Global 500’ rankings for the first time with a brand value of USD 3.8bn. The brand value of Qatar’s largest bank by assets rose 56% YoY driven by its continued robust financial performance and its successful international expansion. (Source: Gulf Times) Business)  Emaar Malls recorded a net profit of AED 1.9bn (USD 510mn) for 2016, up 13% YoY while revenue grew 8% YoY to reach AED 3.2bn in 2016. During Q4-16, the net profit grew 4% YoY to AED 452mn (USD 123mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)    Dubai Islamic Bank appointed banks ahead of a potential benchmarksized US dollar sukuk sale, banking sources familiar with the situation said. (Source: Gulf Times) The CEO of low-cost carrier flydubai expects flat growth in 2017 amid a challenging socioeconomic environment. He said that the airline will remain prudent throughout 2017 as yields are forecast to remain under pressure. (Source: Arabian Business) Grade A and B office rents in Abu Dhabi are expected to fall by at least 10% to 15% during 2017 in the wake of continued contraction in demand, according to real estate firm Core Savills. (Source: Arabian Business)  National Bank of Abu Dhabi became the first bank in the MENA region to introduce real time, cross-border payments on block chain. (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 2 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0799 USD/QAR 3.6412 113.2500 EUR/QAR 3.9321 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2689 JPY/QAR 0.0322 USD/CHF 0.9931 GBP/QAR 4.6203 USD/CAD 1.3049 CHF/QAR 3.6665 AUD/USD 0.7586 CAD/QAR 2.7904 NZD/USD 0.7280 AUD/QAR 2.7622 USD/INR 66.9750 INR/QAR 0.0544 USD/TRY 3.7695 TRY/QAR 0.9660 USD/ZAR 13.4719 ZAR/QAR 0.2703 USD/BRL 3.1281 BRL/QAR 1.1640 FX Commentary USD rose against the basket of major currencies with dollar index up 0.2% in the wake of a stronger than expected ADP report on US private sector employment in January, along with improved national factory activity as shown by ISM data. The greenback however, pared gains after Fed was seemingly less hawkish, citing weak inflationary environment. CAD benefitted from higher oil prices, however closed in red, due to a broadbased recovery in greenback, which also weighed on EUR and JPY. Losses in EUR were capped amidst positive PMI data from Germany and Eurozone. GBP benefited from the political stability offered by the nation’s trade minister, who said that the UK would adopt EU’s FTA after leaving the bloc rather than negotiating new deals. An upbeat January manufacturing PMI report lent further support to the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.72 0.78 1.03 1.71 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.10) 1.29 1.39 1.57 1.85 2.59 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.20 1.73 1.99 2.38 2.0% EIBOR 0.59 0.68 0.99 1.40 2.09 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 NA NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.00% 1.21% 2.83% 3.17% 3.51% 1.93% 2.26% 2.47% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.52% 3.08% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.8 9.5 Turkey 266.7 (0.6) UK 28.1 (8.9) Brazil 246.2 (46.3) Germany 19.6 2.7 Egypt 407.5 (42.2) France 41.8 9.3 Abu Dhabi 170.9 37.5 2.0% 1.50% 1.0% 0.0% 2.39% 2.20% 2.00% 1.75% 1.47% 1.22% 2.66% 2.22% Italy 0.79% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,033.8 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 59.0 (26.5) Bahrain 248.7 (140.0) 60.0 Dubai 137.5 (33.7) Russia 184.7 (54.3) Qatar 80.0 (27.0) Japan 26.5 (8.7) Saudi Arabia 113.6 (68.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 10:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Jan 53.8 Prior 54.2 10:30 Eurozone PPI MoM Dec 0.50% 0.30% 12:30 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Feb-02nd 0.25% 0.25% 12:30 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Feb 435b 435b 13:30 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jan-27th - 385.9b 14:00 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-28th 250k 259k 14:00 US Continuing Claims Jan-21st 2063k 2100k 15:15 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jan-29th - 45.2 01:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Services Jan - 52.3 01:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Composite Jan - 52.8 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Qatar Electricity & Water Co NA NA NA 308.0 (14.4) (30.4) Dlala Holding NA NA NA 1.1 (105.9) (28.8) Commercial Bank Of Kuwait NA NA NA 50.4 142.4 215.1 Sharjah Islamic Bank NA NA NA 127.1 14.0 61.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 2 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 26th January 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 8.6 0.0 7.8 1.6 4.6 4.7 3.2 0.0 4.3 5.7 2.1 5.8 3.4 7.6 5.9 4.9 3.6 4.7 0.0 8.6 3.9 4.7 5.2 6.4 3.2 4.2 4.5 3.2 1.8 6.3 4.4 4.1 4.9 5.6 1.7 3.3 7.3 2.3 6.1 3.2 1.8 6.6 4.2 2.8 0.0 2.2 2.9 5.1 5.4 4.9 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.5 0.8 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.0 2.5 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 1.4 3.4 2.8 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.8 2.6 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 18.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 84.0 13.8 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 12.1 13.4 11.5 28.2 12.4 21.3 7.8 22.7 41.1 12.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.3 14.8 6.3 12.4 14.9 34.9 21.7 19.2 16.4 25.4 11.5 11.5 19.3 17.5 9.1 20.5 3.7 13.6 12.3 14.3 23.9 17.3 14.7 19.4 15.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 24.1 16.0 13.9 12.0 13.3 14.9 EPS (QR) 3.3 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 5.2 14.7 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 0.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.2 4.1 8.0 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.3 11.1 4.1 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.8 7.8 2.9 3.1 BV/Share (QR) 25.5 43.6 9.3 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 10.3 60.3 37.5 71.5 10.0 38.2 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.6 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.0 70.1 20.4 31.9 52.0 24.4 20.9 21.3 34.2 72.5 22.0 39.4 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.6 23.6 25.9 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 38.0 34.8 22.1 38.6 60.9 16.4 42.5 15.9 9.9 109.9 69.7 169.8 10.3 66.0 84.5 183.9 28.1 161.0 9.9 11.6 70.0 84.5 15.0 31.6 119.8 15.7 237.7 56.5 47.5 91.8 20.4 18.0 87.9 41.5 55.0 36.1 15.6 14.8 22.7 108.6 9.5 56.0 24.5 93.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4