GCC Daily Market Update - 18 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 18 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,267.9 19,826.8 5,044.7 7,220.4 11,540.0 4,859.7 82,362.8 18,813.5 22,841.0 3,108.8 27,235.7 (6.8) (59.0) (14.9) (106.8) (14.7) (22.5) 651.1 (281.7) 122.8 5.3 (52.5) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (1.5) (0.1) (0.5) 0.8 (1.5) 0.5 0.2 (0.2) 1.3 0.3 3.7 1.1 0.5 (0.1) 5.4 (1.6) 3.8 0.2 2.3 1.3 0.3 3.7 1.1 0.5 (0.1) 5.4 (1.6) 3.8 0.2 2.3 10,927.8 6,873.5 4,663.1 3,672.3 6,301.1 5,737.2 1,229.4 1,630.1 2,968.4 168.4 49.9 9.7 3.3 77.1 (8.7) 9.0 4.1 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.2 (0.2) 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.7 (4.7) 2.6 4.0 9.6 (0.8) 0.7 3.7 2.1 4.7 (4.7) 2.6 4.0 9.6 (0.8) 0.7 5.0 2.1 55.5 52.5 3.4 1,212.9 262.5 (0.4) 0.1 (0.0) 16.7 (6.5) (0.7) 0.2 (0.2) 1.4 (2.4) (2.0) (2.0) (8.4) 5.5 4.5 (2.0) (2.0) (8.4) 5.5 4.5 Global Most global stocks fell on Tuesday. US stocks retreated on President-elect Donald Trump’s comments showing concern that strong dollar is hurting the economy. S&P 500 index fell 0.3% with Financials and Healthcare stocks leading the losses. UK’s FTSE 100 index slid 1.5% as British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech indicated a ‘hard Brexit’, as she confirmed that Britain would leave the EU single market. Stocks across the rest of Europe also weakened with Financial and Biotechnology stock leading the declines. In Asia, Nikkei closed 1.5% lower weighed by global political jitters and a strong yen that pressured shares of exporters. China’s benchmark rose 0.2% snapping the five-day losing streak with views that recent falls were overdone. GCC Most of the Gulf stocks closed in green on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia's index gained 0.7% driven by strength in the Petrochemical stocks as Brent crude oil futures climbed back over USD 56 per barrel. Banking shares also advanced with Bank Albilad jumping 5.0% after reporting an 8.4% rise in Q4-16 net profit, while National Commercial Bank added 1.5%. UAE stocks rose marginally in lackluster trade as oil prices continued to edge up, stoking increasing confidence of an economic rebound. Du and Dubai Islamic Bank, led gains in Dubai, while in Abu Dhabi, Etisalat and National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) were key gainers. Qatar QE index rose 1.6% in the heaviest volume since late November-16, buoyed by the Banking and Real Estate sector with buying support from Foreign Institutions. Masraf Al Rayan jumped 4% after its board recommended a dividend. Trade turnover and volumes increased substantially, where Real Estate, Banking and Industrials sectors accounted for more than 80% of the total volumes. Out of 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 30 advanced, 7 declined and 3 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.8 1.7 3.8 132.6 DSM 20 15.9 1.7 3.7 120.1 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.4 1.6 3.4 1,044.1 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.5 5.2 75.4 UAE (DFM) 12.0 1.3 3.7 134.9 Kuwait (KSE) 21.8 1.1 3.8 246.1 Oman (MSM) 10.7 1.1 5.0 5.4 Bahrain (BAX) 10.1 0.4 4.6 1.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Doha Bank Qsc Masraf Al Rayan Barwa Real Estate Co Ezdan Holding Group Qatar Islamic Bank Top Losers National Leasing Qatar National Bank Islamic Holding Group The Commercial Bank Vodafone Qatar Close Price 38.0 40.5 35.4 16.3 110.0 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.6 3.3 6.0 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.1 8.7 7.6 6.5 7.9 5.9 7.1 711.6 8.7 33.5 1,309.4 14.7 18.0 1,587.7 14.0 27.7 4,178.3 24.7 42.3 320.3 12.5 16.4 165.1 63.1 32.4 9.6 (0.2) (1.4) (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) (1.2) (0.8) (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) 7.0 1.4 3.4 (0.3) 2.7 47.0 190.5 NA 32.5 81.2 11.4 10.7 16.5 225.4 (10.2) 87.7 31.9 (6.6) 1,706.4 NA Qatar DSM Index 11,000 40.0 10,927.8 10,500 20.0 10,000 9,500 23/Oct 0.0 6/Nov 20/Nov 4/Dec Index Volume (mn) 18/Dec 1/Jan Index Value 15/Jan Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,012.4 6,183.7 3,434.4 4,538.9 2,412.0 1,260.8 2,597.9 1D Change (%) 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.7 3.4 1.5 1.4 Buy (%) 26.2 22.5 48.7 6.6 44.7 51.3 Sell (%) 42.0 10.7 52.7 8.6 38.7 47.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 18 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  British inflation rose, faster than expected, to 1.6% in December-16, to hit its highest level since mid-2014, propelled by the Brexit fueled fall in the value of Sterling, the Office for National Statistics said. (Source:  (Source: Arabian Business)  The IMF lowered its growth outlook for Saudi Arabia on back of lower oil production and capital spending. It said GDP will expand 0.4% in 2017 as against earlier prediction of 2% growth. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabian real estate prices declined 8.7% YoY in 2016, according to the General Authority for Statistics, showing heavy pressure on the economy from government austerity measures in response to low oil prices. (Source: Arabian Business)  At least USD 13.3bn of government projects are at risk of being cancelled in Saudi Arabia in 2017 because of fiscal pressures and changing government priorities, Zawya Projects reported, citing a study by consultants Faithful+Gould. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Binladin Group (SBG) is negotiating with banks for an extension of up to two years on a SAR 10bn (USD 2.7bn) Islamic credit facility used to pay for building work at the kingdom's Grand Mosque in Makkah after delays to the project, banking sources said. (Source: Arabian Reuters)  Eurozone banks expect loan demand to rise in Q1-17, as economic activity continues to expand in the 19-member currency bloc, the European Central Bank said in a quarterly survey. (Source: Reuters)  China's cabinet issued measures to further open the economy to foreign investment, including lower restrictions on foreign investment in banking, securities, investment management, futures, insurance, credit ratings and accounting sectors, the State Council said in a statement. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The UAE’s foreign trade is estimated to reach USD 354bn in 2016, according to a new trade finance report published by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Economic growth in Dubai is forecast to increase to 3.1% in 2017 compared to 2.7% in 2016, according to Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of the Economic Development Committee in Dubai. (Source: Arabian Business)  Average residential sales rates for apartments in Dubai fell 4.6% YoY in 2016 while, the drop for villas was more pronounced at 6.5% YoY, according to CBRE's Dubai Annual Market Update Report. It added that rents in Dubai fell by an average of 1% YoY in Q4-16. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Cement reported a 6.3% YoY increase in net profit to SAR 187mn (USD 49.9mn) for Q4-16, according to a bourse filing. However, it was down from SAR 200mn in Q3-16, due to fall in sales, an increase in power prices, which raised the cost of production, and an increase in financing charges. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Saudi Telecom Co. (STC) said that it had completed procedures for the purchase of the remaining 40% stake in Sale Advanced Co. for SAR 400mn (USD 106.7mn) and will finance its bid with the company's own resources. (Source: Reuters) Business)  The UAE elevators market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8% till 2021, driven by growing disposable income and booming construction market coupled with favourable government initiatives, according to a report from TechSci Research, a global management consulting firm. QATAR NEWS  (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), sees investment opportunities in China's fixed income and real estate markets, as well as smaller Chinese companies, its managing director said. (Source:   Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy company, acquired a stake in Hywind Scotland, a 30-megawatt floating offshore pilot wind farm in the North Sea. (Source: Arabian Business) The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority and Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy company Masdar will begin construction of the 800 megawatt Phase 3 of the AED 50bn (USD 13.6bn) Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai at the end of January-17 following the award of the EPC contract. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai's Majid Al Futtaim, a holding company which owns and operates shopping centres in MENA region, is in talks with banks to obtain a revolving credit facility likely to be in excess of USD 1.5bn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Etihad Airways and Natixis have completed a sale and leaseback for two 2016 vintage Airbus A380 aircraft which are owned by special purpose companies based in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), and are leased to Etihad for a period of 12 years. (Source: Trade Arabia)  First Avenue, the new USD 136mn mall and hotel project being built in Motor City, Dubai, signed up some of the biggest names like KRIS KROS, BurgerFuel, Kababji and SushiArt in casual dining as opening plans gather pace. (Source: Arabian Business)  Aldar Properties announced steady progress across all its real estate projects, with Yas Island’s Ansam and Al Raha Beach’s Al Hadeel moving closer towards completion and handover in 2017. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar's central bank sold QAR 15bn (USD 4.1bn) of conventional and Islamic government bonds on 15th January-17 in its first domestic government debt offer in 2017, a Qatar central bank official said. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA) has been approved as a ‘full signatory’ to the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) multilateral memorandum of understanding (MMoU) concerning consultation and cooperation and the exchange of information. (Source: Gulf Times)  The total trading value in the real estate sales contracts registered with the Land Registry Department of the Ministry of Justice for the week ending 12th January-17 reached in excess of QAR 1.23bn. (Source: Reuters)  Dubai Properties announced the launch of La Quinta, the second phase of the Villanova residential master community in Dubailand. QNA)  Qatar Chamber signed a cooperation agreement with the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) which aims to strengthen cooperation between the two agencies, develop its SME sector, and facilitate exchange of best practices in the SME industry. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways CEO, Akbar Al Baker, predicted that the Qatari airline will be privatized within the next ten years and valued Qatar Airways at, more than USD 10bn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC) and Nebras Power signed a cooperation agreement with Abu Dhabi's renewable energy company Masdar which aims to strengthen mutual cooperation among QEWC, Nebras and Masdar in the development of commercially viable renewable energy projects in Qatar, the UAE and international markets. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Nasser Bin Khaled (NBK) Automobiles, authorized general distributor of Mercedes-Benz in Qatar, achieved significant growth in 2016, a top official said adding that sales of the new E-Class recorded a 12% YoY growth in 2016. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 18 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0743 USD/QAR 3.6407 112.6200 EUR/QAR 3.9112 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2444 JPY/QAR 0.0323 USD/CHF 1.0015 GBP/QAR 4.5305 USD/CAD 1.3043 CHF/QAR 3.6352 AUD/USD 0.7567 CAD/QAR 2.7913 NZD/USD 0.7215 AUD/QAR 2.7549 USD/INR 67.4600 INR/QAR 0.0540 USD/TRY 3.7615 TRY/QAR 0.9679 USD/ZAR 13.4677 ZAR/QAR 0.2703 USD/BRL 3.2116 BRL/QAR 1.1336 FX Commentary USD fell to a six week low against the basket of major currencies as US President elect-Donald Trump showed concern over the strength of dollar with a view that it is hurting the competitiveness of US manufacturing sector with economies like China holding down the value of their currencies. GBP rose supported by higher than expected UK inflation data and as UK PM- Theresa May confirmation that both Houses of Parliament will have a vote on the final terms of Brexit. EUR rose after data showing improvement in both German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiments in January. CAD strengthened to a three-month high against its US counterpart. AUD jumped higher after a period of consolidation. In addition to a weaker USD, the AUD was also supported by a data showing rebound in home loans in November-16. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.69 0.72 0.77 1.02 1.70 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.10) 1.31 1.42 1.58 1.84 2.53 SAIBOR NA 1.24 1.78 2.03 2.41 EIBOR 0.53 0.65 0.95 1.39 2.05 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.20 1.73 2.18 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.5% 0.59% 2 Yrs -11.45% -5.5% 2.37% 2.86% 2.86% 1.54% 5 Yrs 1.93% 7 Yrs 2.28% 10 Yrs 4.44% 2.95% 30 Yrs -15.5% Qatar US Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.0 7.9 Turkey 284.8 37.8 UK 30.1 (6.9) Brazil 250.5 (40.6) Germany 20.7 3.0 Egypt 431.8 (64.2) France 39.3 2.3 Abu Dhabi 150.8 14.7 2.0% 1.46% 1.0% 0.0% 2.21% 2.05% 1.88% 2.46% 2.35% 1.91% 1.65% 1.41% Italy 0.93% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,065.2 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 60.5 (23.9) Bahrain 269.5 (125.3) 98.5 Dubai 145.0 (29.5) Russia 182.3 (47.5) Qatar 85.5 (20.7) Japan 30.0 (2.8) Saudi Arabia 114.6 (54.7) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 12:30 UK Jobless Claims Change 13:00 Eurozone CPI YoY 15:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16:30 US CPI MoM 18:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Period Survey Dec 5.0k Prior 2.4k Dec F 1.10% 1.10% Jan-13th - 5.80% Dec 0.30% 0.20% Jan-18th 0.50% 0.50% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Oman Oil Marketing Company 113.9 26.3 1.2 2.0 (38.9) (19.8) Dur Hospitality Co 109.3 (14.3) (8.5) 23.6 (3.9) (20.5) Saudi Cement 397.0 (17.9) 5.9 187.0 6.4 (6.7) NA NA NA 55.0 (37.8) 28.8 869.3 46.7 2.1 15.3 (53.6) (17.4) NA NA NA 390.0 1.1 25.2 1,108.2 882.4 565.9 719.4 (666.6) 7,476.9 Dallah Healthcare Co NA NA NA 52.0 (4.8) (14.9) Bawan Co NA NA NA 14.2 (15.9) (34.8) Eastern Province Cement Co Aldrees Petroleum And Transp Alinma Bank Jabal Omar Development Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 18 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As of 12th January 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.8 9.2 0.0 8.5 1.7 5.9 4.5 2.9 0.0 4.0 6.2 1.8 5.9 3.2 7.7 6.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 0.0 8.7 4.1 4.8 5.4 6.6 3.2 4.2 4.5 3.2 2.1 6.5 3.7 4.1 4.8 5.6 2.2 3.0 7.5 2.6 6.5 3.2 1.8 6.8 4.3 2.8 0.0 2.3 2.9 5.3 5.3 5.0 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.5 0.8 2.5 1.0 2.6 1.0 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.4 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.2 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 1.4 3.4 2.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.8 2.7 0.6 2.4 1.7 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.3 17.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.7 12.3 11.4 28.0 11.8 21.0 7.2 21.7 14.5 12.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.1 14.0 6.2 11.8 14.4 35.1 21.7 19.2 16.2 25.4 11.2 11.5 19.2 17.9 9.1 20.2 4.2 13.1 12.5 13.5 23.7 17.3 14.3 19.0 15.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.8 15.8 13.5 12.0 13.1 14.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.5 1.8 7.8 2.9 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.0 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.6 23.6 25.9 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 38.1 32.7 23.3 35.3 63.4 16.9 38.8 17.0 10.2 106.4 64.5 166.0 10.2 65.0 78.8 175.9 30.2 154.7 10.2 11.4 65.9 83.2 14.5 31.8 120.0 15.6 234.5 58.4 46.4 89.4 20.9 18.0 88.9 46.3 53.1 34.0 15.5 14.8 22.0 106.5 9.6 55.6 23.7 93.7 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4