GCC Daily Market Update - 17 January

Transcription

1. January 17 , 2021 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS (0.40%) (1.40%) 1.40% 1.20 Jan-08th 1.10 US MBA Mortgage Applications -- 16.70% 1.70% US CPI MoM Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.20% Japan Core Machine Orders MoM Nov (6.50%) 1.50% 17.10% 1.00 Japan PPI YoY Dec (2.20%) (2.00%) (2.30%) 0.90 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jan-08th -- 597.4b 597.4b US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-09th 789k 965k 784k UK Industrial Production MoM France CPI YoY US Retail Sales Advance MoM US U. of Mich. Sentiment (0.10%) 1.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Dec 0.00% (0.70%) (1.40%) Jan P 79.5 79.2 80.7 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS  The US President-elect, Joe Biden, has announced to outline an USD 1.9tn stimulus package to distribute the vaccines, provide relief to the households and support SMEs. (Source: Reuters)  The US Fed Vice Chair, Richard Clarida, has announced that the US Central Bank will not increase the interest rates until inflation reaches 2.0%. (Source: Reuters)  As per sources, the US government has announced to reopen its small business pandemic aid program with USD 284.0bn. (Source: Reuters)  The US Small Business Administration has announced to waive off more than 1.1mn Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for over USD 100.0bn. (Source: Yahoo Finance)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed the UK’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AA-' due to accelerating public sector indebtedness of the nation. The outlook is Negative. (Source: Fitch Ratings) 0.70 11-Jan 0.50% 0.80 19-Oct Nov Dec F 1.08 04-Jan Nov 28-Dec Industrial Production MoM 21-Dec Italy UST 10yr Yield 14-Dec Prior 07-Dec Actual 30-Nov Survey 23-Nov Nov ¥1,552.0b ¥1,878.4b ¥2,144.7b 16-Nov Period 09-Nov BoP Current Account 02-Nov Event Japan 26-Oct Region Source: Bloomberg  As per Dubai Economy, the household consumption of the emirate is expected to rise by 4.0% YoY in 2021 due to the launch of COVID-19 vaccine campaign. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia announced that the nation plans to offer investment opportunities worth USD 6.0tn over the next decade. Public Investment Fund of the nation will be supporting 85.0% of the opportunities. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince announced to build a zero-carbon city, at the nation’s NEOM city from Q1-21. The city may contribute USD 38.0bn to the nation’s GDP and create 38,000 new jobs. (Source: Reuters)  As per Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia aims to issue bonds worth USD 5.0bn to cover the financing requirements of the nation. (Source: Mubasher)  As per the General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Arabia’s inflation reached 3.4% in 2020 due to tripling of VAT. The prices of food & beverages and transportation rose by 9.0% and 3.8%, respectively. (Source: Reuters)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Bank of England's Long-Term ForeignCurrency IDR at 'AA-' which is in line with the UK government’s rating. The outlook is Negative. (Source: Fitch Ratings)   As per BDI industry association of Germany, the nation’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021 after contracting by around 5.0% in 2020. (Source: Reuters)  As per the Central Bank of Oman, the total deposits held with other depository corporations increased by 3.5% YoY to USD 62.4bn by November-20. (Source: Times of Oman)  The IMF official said that China is recovering fast ahead of many big economies, however the recovery is still unstable and facing substantial downside risks. (Source: Financial Express)  As per the Central Bank of Bahrain, the point of sale transactions in the nation increased by 0.3% YoY and 5.2% MoM to BHD 233.1mn (USD 619.9mn) in December-20. (Source: Trade Arabia)  According to Kyodo news, the Prime Minister of Japan has announced to widen state of emergency beyond Tokyo in three western districts of Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo in order to curb the spread of COVID-19.  As per Bahrain Economists Society, the re-opening of the King Fahd Causeway may add USD 2.9bn to the nation’s GDP. (Source: Zawya)  The Central Bank of Kuwait announced to issue bonds worth KWD 240.0mn (USD 792.0mn) with a maturity period of 3 months and a rate of return of 1.250%. (Source: Kuwait News Agency) (Source: Yahoo News)   As per the Administrative and Regulatory Reform Minister of Japan, the government may infuse extra stimulus package and also said that the state of emergency could be extended over a month. (Source: Reuters) Turkey has announced a 2021 public investment program valued at TRY 138.5bn (USD 18.5bn), with communication and transportation projects receiving the biggest allocation. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS   The UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure is considering to implement AED 10.0bn (USD 2.7bn) worth of infrastructure projects along the east coast of the nation. (Source: Mubasher) The Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority reported that the UAE's non-oil trade reached AED 1.0tn (USD 281.2bn) during 9M20. (Source: Trade Arabia) As per sources, Oman is planning to raise USD 2.0-3.0bn through the sale of bonds maturing in 10 years and 30 years and also re-opened USD 750.0mn bonds due in 2025. (Source: Reuters) QATAR NEWS  As per S&P, Qatar's intraregional travel, tourism and real estate sectors will be boosted and the prospects of the insurance sector will be lifted due to the end of blockade. There are high probabilities of rise in foreign investments in the nation. (Source: Gulf Times)  As per PSA, Qatar’s CPI fell by 3.4% YoY to 95.93 points in December20 due to price fall in Recreation & Culture by 21.6%. (Source: PSA)  Qatar National Bank has reported a decline in net profit by 16.0% YoY to QAR 12.0bn (USD 3.3bn) in 2020. The total assets were increased by 8.5% YoY to QAR 1.0tn (USD 282.0bn). (Source: Qatar national Bank) 1
2. January 17 , 2021 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ Index Price WTD %Δ 3,768.3 (1.5) 0.3 0.3 MSCI EM DJIA 30,814.3 (0.9) 0.7 0.7 MSCI GCC Nasdaq 12,803.9 (2.3) (0.7) (0.7) FTSE 100 MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 1,358.0 0.3 5.2 5.2 567.4 1.9 3.4 3.4 Dow Jones Islamic 5,493.5 (1.6) 0.9 0.9 6,735.7 (2.0) 4.3 4.3 KSA (TASI) 8,898.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 DAX 30 13,787.7 (1.9) 0.5 0.5 UAE (DFM) 2,702.3 2.9 8.4 8.4 CAC 40 5,611.7 (1.7) 1.1 1.1 UAE (ADX) 5,266.7 2.0 4.4 4.4 BIST 100 1,524.5 (1.0) 3.2 3.2 Qatar (DSM) 10,913.8 2.2 4.6 4.6 Nikkei 28,519.2 1.4 3.9 3.9 Kuwait (KSE) 5,656.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 Sh. Comp 3,566.4 (0.1) 2.7 2.7 Bahrain (BAX) 1,459.4 0.6 (2.0) (2.0) Hang Seng 28,573.9 2.5 4.9 4.9 Oman (MSM) 3,638.8 (1.6) (0.5) (0.5) Sensex 49,034.7 0.5 2.7 2.7 Jordan (ASEGI) 1,722.3 2.7 3.9 3.9 Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 2.5 Hang Seng Nikkei Sensex MSCI EM Sh. Comp DJIA BIST 100 S&P 500 CAC 40 DAX 30 FTSE 100 Nasdaq MSCI EM Hang Seng FTSE 100 Nikkei BIST 100 Sensex Sh. Comp CAC 40 DJIA DAX 30 S&P 500 Nasdaq 1.4 0.5 0.3 (0.1) (0.9) (1.0) (1.5) (1.7) (1.9) (2.0) (2.3) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 5.2 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.7 (0.7) (2.0) Source: Bloomberg 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) 2.9 Qatar (DSM) Kuwait (KSE) UAE (ADX) 8.4 2.2 Qatar (DSM) 2.2 UAE (ADX) 4.4 MSCI GCC 2.0 MSCI GCC 1.9 KSA (TASI) KSA (TASI) 1.8 Kuwait (KSE) Bahrain (BAX) 4.6 3.4 2.4 2.0 Dow Jones Islamic 0.6 Oman (MSM) Dow Jones Islamic (1.6) 0.9 (0.5) Bahrain (BAX) (2.0) Oman (MSM) (1.6) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 4.0 Source: Bloomberg Global The US equity markets ended on a negative note in the previous week, due to civil unrest in the US. Investors observed Democrats call to invoke the 25th amendment to remove President Trump from the White House. However, losses were limited as President elect Joe Biden announced his plans for a USD 1.9tn fiscal stimulus package. The S&P 500 index ended lower by 1.5% amid losses in Communication Service and Technology stocks. The European markets ended lower, due to investor concerns on surging COVID-19 cases in the region. The regional government’s decision to extend and toughen lockdowns also weighed on the markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended the week 0.8% lower at 407.9. In Asia, the Nikkei index ended higher, after the release of the central banks Regional Economic Report which showed majority of the domestic regions demonstrating with better performance. GCC Most GCC indices ended on a positive note in the previous week. The Saudi Arabian index increased by 1.8%. City Cement increased by 11.0% as Saudi crown prince unveiled plans to build a zero carbon city at NEOM. Dubai’s benchmark ended 2.9% higher last week, as increase in Investment & Financial Service and Real Estate & Construction lifted the index. Abu Dhabi benchmark increased by 2.0% First Abu Dhabi Bank increased 3.7% this week, after the bank issued a CNY 1.5bn (USD 232.2mn) five-year bond. Qatar The QE index rose 2.2% in the previous week. Gains in Telecoms and Transportation stocks lifted the index. Buying support from domestic & foreign institutional investors lifted the index. Trade turnover and volume increased with Banking, Industrial and Real Estate sectors together accounting for about 71.0% of the total traded volume. Out of the total 48 traded stocks, 30 advanced, 15 declined and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 11,500 10,913.8 9,500 7,500 Jul-20 Commentary Sep-20 Index Oct-20 50 SMA 100 SMA Nov-20 200 SMA Jan-21 Indicator Price Last Close 10,913.8 MAVG 50 10,428.9 MAVG 100 10,151.8 MAVG 200 9,617.0 6 Month High 10,913.8 6 Month Low 9,322.0 RSI (14 Days) 74.6 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. January 17 , 2021 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 2.28 2.50 4.00 3.51 1.82 2.00 1.56 1.62 1.57 2.66 3.00 2.06 1.83 1.50 2.22 2.08 2.97 2.00 1.00 1.08 0.00 0.14 2 Yrs 0.21 3 Yrs Current 0.42 0.45 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 0.96 0.53 0.00 Source: Bloomberg 3 Yrs Current 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds CDS 5 Years CDS 1.77 1.00 0.50 Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Global Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2021 100.8 (5.2) (0.29) (0.0) (0.1) QGIB 2022 104.2 11.6 0.13 (0.0) (0.2) US 21.0 (1.2) (0.6) (3.4) QGS 2023 105.3 34.4 0.47 (0.0) (0.1) UK 34.0 (1.7) (2.3) (7.3) QGIB 2023 107.5 31.1 0.49 (0.1) (0.1) (2.3) QGIB 2024 108.3 43.1 0.66 (0.1) (0.3) QGIB 2025 110.1 55.1 0.93 (0.1) (0.4) QGIB 2026 111.0 57.1 1.11 (0.2) (0.4) Germany 12.9 (0.2) 0.0 France 31.0 (1.4) (2.3) (9.0) Italy 197.7 (8.9) (11.4) (13.0) QGIB 2028 120.6 71.3 1.48 (0.4) (0.8) Greece 380.9 (20.4) (23.1) (113.4) QGIB 2029 117.8 77.8 1.64 (0.6) (1.1) (25.0) QGIB 2030 169.4 79.4 1.68 (0.5) (1.4) QGIB 2030 116.8 79.4 1.76 (0.6) (1.2) QGIB 2040 154.7 134.1 2.68 (0.3) (3.1) Russia 129.6 (1.6) (0.7) Japan 21.5 0.1 0.2 (5.7) Turkey 333.0 20.8 26.3 (30.8) QGIB 2042 146.8 138.5 2.77 (0.2) (3.2) Brazil 166.3 6.5 8.0 (43.6) QGIB 2046 129.6 148.6 2.95 0.2 (3.4) QGIB 2048 138.5 154.4 3.01 1.7 (2.4) QGIB 2049 134.1 152.9 3.01 1.6 (2.7) QGIB 2050 127.8 147.5 2.96 0.9 (3.0) Egypt 329.7 0.9 (9.3) (78.3) GCC Abu Dhabi 63.2 2.2 2.0 (6.4) Source: Bloomberg, QCB Bahrain 264.5 9.9 8.4 (49.7) US Swap Rates Dubai 131.4 4.0 1.2 (2.9) Tenor Qatar 75.8 6.1 4.6 (9.4) Saudi Arabia 88.4 5.7 3.2 (18.7) 50.7 3.1 2.8 2.8 International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe iTraxx Europe Crossover 257.8 11.4 16.8 16.8 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.226 0.001 (0.013) 6M LIBOR 0.251 0.005 (0.006) 12M LIBOR 0.326 (0.004) (0.016) 2 years 0.205 (0.010) 0.005 5 years 0.523 (0.035) 0.089 10 years 1.085 (0.040) 0.156 30 years 1.574 (0.043) 0.172 CDX North America IG 51.8 2.1 1.5 1.5 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America HY 304.3 12.2 11.0 11.0 Commentary iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 10.6 3.4 3.7 3.7 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 94.5 10.8 5.9 5.9 The US 10-year bond yield decreased in the past week due to healthy demand for USD 38.0bn benchmark 10-year notes and fall in retail sales in December-20. The German 10-year bund yield decreased in the past week, as Italy’s former premier Matteo Renzi withdrew his party’s support to the government creating political uncertainty. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. January 17 , 2021 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 55.1 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 52.4 Brent oil prices closed lower in the last week, driven by expanding lockdowns in China which created concerns about immediate global oil demand. WTI prices closed higher this week, despite a surge in COVID-19 cases globally and lockdown measures introduced in China. Natural gas prices increased in the last week, amid extremely cold climatic conditions in the US increased demand for the commodity. Gold prices fell in the last week, due to strength in the US dollar and the introduction of the new USD 1.9tn COVID-19 relief plan by the new US President. Copper prices decrease in the past week as investors engaged in profit taking activities after a recent rally in its prices. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.7 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,829.9 Silver (USD/t oz.) 24.9 Copper (USD/lb) 360.2 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Natural Gas 1.4 Silver 0.9 WTI Crude Brent 2.4 Gold (1.6) (3.4) Silver (1.9) (3.0) 6.4 Copper (0.3) Copper 7.9 7.8 Brent 0.2 Gold WTI Crude Natural Gas (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 (5.9) (10.0) Source: Bloomberg (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.3620 USD/INR 72.5675 EUR/USD 1.2112 USD/CNY 6.4809 CAD/USD 0.7851 USD/TRY 7.4726 AUD/USD 0.7703 USD/EGP 15.6632 NZD/USD 0.7133 USD/ZAR 15.2313 103.8500 USD/RUB 73.5500 USD/JPY Commentary The USD increased against the basket of major currencies in the last week, with the dollar index settling higher by 0.8% at 90.8. The dollar strengthened following an announcement by US President elect Biden to introduce a fiscal stimulus package of 1.9tn. The EUR decreased against the USD, despite positive economic data on Eurozone industrial production. The GBP increased against the USD, due to comments from the Bank of England’s governor on the problems associated with negative interest rates and the UK Governments plans to open seven large scale vaccination centers. The CAD increased against the USD, caused by an increase in crude oil prices. The AUD decreased against the USD, as investors became more risk averse due to surging COVID-19 cases globally. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) RUB ZAR EGP INR GBP JPY CNY CAD AUD EUR NZD TRY (2.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 (0.1) (0.4) (0.7) (1.1) (1.5) (1.5) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 CNY RUB EGP AUD CAD INR JPY TRY GBP NZD EUR ZAR 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (1.1) (3.5) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4