GCC Daily Market Update - 16 January

Transcription

1. January 16 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,289.3 29,030.2 9,035.7 7,642.8 13,432.3 6,032.6 120,938.8 23,916.6 28,773.6 3,090.0 41,872.7 6.1 90.6 2.2 20.5 (24.2) (8.3) (484.5) (108.6) (111.6) (16.8) (79.9) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.2) 1.8 1.7 3.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 5.7 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 3.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 5.7 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.5 10,635.0 8,432.6 5,174.1 2,818.0 6,351.6 4,039.4 1,636.2 2,032.2 4,404.8 (1.7) (42.3) 5.4 15.1 18.4 62.2 15.9 20.5 10.5 (0.0) (0.5) 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.0 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 2.4 64.0 57.8 2.1 1,554.0 286.6 (0.5) (0.4) (0.1) 9.4 (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (3.1) 0.6 (0.3) (2.4) (4.7) (2.4) 2.0 2.1 (2.4) (4.7) (2.4) 2.0 2.1 Source: Bloomberg Global The US Equity market ended on a positive note yesterday, after US-China signed Phase 1 trade agreement. The S&P 500 increased by 0.2%, amid increase Utilities and Healthcare stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined marginally to settle at 419.5, as investors remained on the side-lines ahead of the signing of the trade deal. The German index lost 0.2%, following the release of lower than expected domestic GDP growth data. Automobile stocks were among the notable losers. The Hang Seng Index decreased 0.4%, on back of increased selling pressure in Energy, Financial and Property shares. The Japanese benchmark fell 0.5%, after the US trade official announced that the ongoing tariffs on China will continue until final phase of the deal is reached. GCC Most GCC markets ended on a positive note yesterday, with Oman’s bourse leading the gains. The upward trajectory in the market was on back of robust corporate earnings. In Oman, Bank Muscat and Raysut Cement Co. increased by 2.8% and 7.6%, respectively, after reporting a strong growth in their FY-19 net profit. Dubai's index edged up 0.5%. National Central Cooling Co. rose by 2.1%, after establishing a new entity to consolidate its service businesses. Abu Dhabi's index increased 0.1%, amid gains in Consumer staples, Energy and Real estate stocks lifted the benchmark. Qatar The QE index decreased marginally yesterday. Selling pressure on part of domestic and foreign retail and domestic institutional investors weighed on the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes were on the decrease on the bourse, with Banking & Financial Services, Industrials and Real Estate together accounting for about 79.9% of the total volume. Out of 47 listed stocks, 44 exchanged hands, 22 advanced, 14 declined and 8 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.8 1.6 3.9 DSM 20 15.3 1.6 4.0 58.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 22.7 1.9 3.2 1,141.5 UAE (ADX) 15.8 1.5 4.8 37.0 UAE (DFM) 11.2 1.0 4.1 60.6 Kuwait (KSE) 15.6 1.5 3.4 177.0 Oman (MSM) 6.7 0.7 7.4 12.5 Bahrain (BAX) 13.0 1.0 4.8 1.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 65.7 Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mannai Corporation Vodafone Qatar Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Qatar Islamic Bank Salam Intl. Invst. Top Losers Doha Bank Qatar Gas Transport Qatari Investors Group Qatar Industrial Mfg. Al Khaleej Takaful Close Price 3.3 1.2 0.8 16.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.6 7.8 2.6 5.0 6.3 0.2 2.9 2.4 1.8 3.6 2.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (1.4) (0.8) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) 14.6 0.4 (0.6) 1.7 (1.5) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (41.2) (28.6) (3.9) 2.5 1.8 1,996.0 5.7 4,303.7 33.6 2,769.9 NA 1,791.2 12.7 1,669.3 NA 32.4 1,731.1 12.7 25.0 602.6 13.8 (37.7) 117.8 17.0 (16.0) 56.4 15.3 118.9 193.9 12.6 Qatar DSM Index 10,750 10,600 10,450 10,300 10,150 10,000 20-Oct 10,635.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 3-Nov 17-Nov 1-Dec Index Volume (mn) 15-Dec 29-Dec Index Value 12-Jan Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 4,352.8 8,718.5 2,944.1 2,804.2 1,575.9 894.6 2,553.5 1D Change (%) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 (0.4) Buy (%) 23.1 26.3 49.4 6.6 44.0 50.6 Sell (%) 29.7 32.0 61.7 8.7 29.6 38.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. January 16 , 2020 project aims to reduce the risk of flash flooding in the 79.4km-long Al Ain, Al Sulaimi & Al Tawayya valleys in Al Ain city. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  The US and China have signed the initial trade deal under which some tariffs will be rolled back and China will increase the purchases of US products. The key aspect of the trade agreement is that China will buy at least an extra USD 200.0bn value of US farm products. (Source: Reuters)  The US President said that he would remove all US tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as the two nations complete the Phase 2 part of their trade agreement. He doesn’t expect a Phase 3 pact. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of England interest-rate setter, Michael Saunders warned that UK has a larger risk of entering in a low-inflation trap, if the central bank does not take action soon to boost the economy. The official had voted to cut rates in late 2019. (Source: Nasdaq)  The UK government plans to provide GBP 2.0bn (USD 2.6bn) to support the Northern Ireland government, for nurses’ pay dispute, public services and infrastructure investments. (Source: Reuters)  The Bank of Japan has cut its economic assessment for three of the nation’s nine regions after analyzing conditions across the nation and maintained its view for the other six. (Source: The Guardian)  China’s Premier Li Keqiang said that in 2020, the nation will raise effective investment and keep liquidity reasonably sufficient. Furthermore, the nation will implement proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and prioritize employment. (Source: Reuters)  India is planning to launch a new law to safeguard foreign investment by accelerating dispute resolution between investors and the government by appointing a mediator and setting up fast-track courts. The move aims to attract more foreign capital to boost slower domestic growth. (Source: Nasdaq)  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has raised over USD 19.0bn over the past three years from international investors, according to Reuters calculations. (Source: Reuters)  Sharjah-based developer, Arada reported a 33.0% YoY growth in sales for 2019, boosted by substantial investor interest in the USD 6.5bn largest mixed-use megaproject, Aljada and a stable local market. Total number of units sold by the company increased by 86.0% YoY. Aljida reported a 57.0% YoY increase in total value of sales, while the number of units sold increased by 105.0% YoY in 2019. (Source: Arabian Business)  Sharjah-based Bee’ah has partnered with Abu Dhabi’s National Central Cooling Company (Tabreed) to jointly develop large-scale district cooling projects in Sharjah. (Source: Gulf Today)  Saudi Arabia’s Communication and Information Technology Commission (CITC) disclosed the nation’s plans to award licenses to foreign Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) to open up its telecom sector to further competition. The move aims to increase the nation’s ICT sector’s growth by 50.0% and increase its contribution to GDP by USD 13.3bn in next five years. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) announced that the Board of the Capital Market Authority (CMA) has approved rules to regulate derivatives exchange membership and trading activities on derivatives. The launch of a Derivatives Market in nation follows the start of the Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) to develop future clearing services. (Source: Zawya)  Fitch Ratings stated that fiscal and external deficits and rising indebtedness remain to be the major risks to Oman's BB+/Stable rating, which was affirmed in July-19. The nation’s fiscal deficit declined marginally to 8.4% of GDP in 2019, compared with the forecast of 9.8% in the agency’s last rating assessment. (Source: Zawya)  Bahrain-based asset manager Investcorp, has raised USD 130.0mn to finance real estate projects in India. The funding will target affordable and mid-market housing segments in the top seven cities in India. GCC NEWS  The UAE-Caribbean Renewable Energy Fund (UAE-CREF) announced that it has entered the second cycle of its USD 50.0mn three-year plan to construct climate-resilient renewable energy projects in 16 Caribbean nations. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based Emirates Airlines has signed an agreement with global one-stop travel service provider, Trip.com Group, to expand its presence in the Chinese market. (Source: Gulf News)  As per Property Monitor, the property prices and rents in Dubai will decline further in Q1-20, as the real estate market is getting close to the point of bottoming out. The number of property transactions in Dubai increased by 20.0% YoY to 41,988 in 2019, indicating entry of buyers who were on the edge of a purchase decision. (Source: Zawya)   Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) announced plans to launch a sustainable Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with an initial valuation of between AED 950.0mn to AED 1.0bn (USD 259.0mn to USD 0.3bn). The "green" REIT portfolio will initially include four commercial properties at Abu Dhabi's Masdar city. (Source: Nasdaq) The CEO of Masdar announced that the company has made investments worth over USD 14.0bn in more than 30 nations, and further aims to increase its investment in Egypt and in the US market. Masdar has a total operating capacity of around 5,000 megawatts. (Source: The National)  QATAR NEWS  According to PwC’s latest report on Qatar Banking Sector, the aggregated total assets of the eight listed banks in the nation increased by 5.6% to QAR 1.6tn (USD 0.4tn) in Q3-19 compared to FY18. The aggregated loans and advances grew by 5.8% to QAR 1.1tn (USD 0.3tn) during the same period. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) reported a 10.9% YoY increase in net profit to QAR 3.1bn (USD 0.8bn) in 2019. The bank’s total assets grew by 6.7% YoY to QAR 163.5bn (USD 44.7bn), driven by decent growth in the core banking activities. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatargas announced the delivery of the first Q-Flex cargo of LNG to the ‘Summit LNG’ Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) situated offshore Bangladesh. This is the first commercial open water ship-to-ship transfer connecting a Q-Flex vessel delivering to Petrobangla at their Summit LNG Terminal (SLNG). (Source: Gulf Times)  The CEO of Qatar Airways announced that the airline would report a loss in FY 2019-20, ending on 31st March, but expected to break even in FY 2020-21. The carrier is anticipating a profit in FY 2021-22. He expressed hopes to receive the first delivery of the 737 MAX model by mid-21. (Source: Zawya) (Source: Trade Arabia)   The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is working on selling its stake worth USD 2.0bn in private-equity funds, due to rising push toward direct investments by the sovereign wealth fund, as per people familiar with the matter. The company is working with advisers at PJT Park Hill on the proposed transaction. (Source: Gulf Business) Abu Dhabi General Services Company (Musanada) and the Al Ain Region Municipality have started work on the Package 1 of the Al Ain Rainwater Streams project worth AED 119.3mn (USD 32.5mn). The The Central Bank of Kuwait has issued bonds and related tawarruq worth KWD 240.0mn (USD 792.7mn), with a maturity of three-months and a rate of return of 2.75%. (Source: Zawya) 2
3. January 16 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1180 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.9000 EUR/QAR 4.0712 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3068 JPY/QAR 0.0331 USD/CHF 0.9641 GBP/QAR 4.7587 USD/CAD 1.3042 CHF/QAR 3.7771 AUD/USD 0.6902 CAD/QAR 2.7921 NZD/USD 0.6618 AUD/QAR 2.5134 USD/INR 70.3175 INR/QAR 0.0518 USD/TRY 5.8751 TRY/QAR 0.6198 USD/ZAR 14.3894 ZAR/QAR 0.2531 USD/BRL 4.1831 BRL/QAR 0.8705 FX Commentary The US dollar decreased against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.2% lower at 97.0. The dollar weakened, following the release of discouraging core producer price inflation data in the US. The EUR increased, despite the release of lower than expected Eurozone’s industrial production data for the month of November-19. The GBP strengthened against the USD. However, gains were limited, as the release of dismal British inflation data increased bets that the Bank of England might cut interest rates. The CAD advanced marginally against USD, underpinned by the signing of a Phase 1 trade agreement between USChina. The TRY increased against USD, despite the Turkish budget deficit increasing to historic high levels in December-19. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.53 1.57 1.67 1.84 1.96 (0.57) (0.50) (0.46) (0.39) (0.24) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year QAIBOR 2.04 2.08 2.14 2.30 2.69 SAIBOR NA 1.89 2.06 2.22 2.30 EIBOR 1.39 1.64 1.88 2.02 2.26 BMIBOR 1.92 2.07 2.25 2.38 2.53 NA NA 2.50 2.75 3.19 KIBOR Source: Bloomberg Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5.0% 3.50% 2.5% 0.0% 2.62% 1.84% 2.16% 2.40% 1.56% 1.60% 1.71% 1.79% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US Qatar 2.25% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 17.3 (0.3) Turkey 252.7 (110.7) UK 20.9 (14.1) Brazil 102.9 (27.1) 9.7 (1.8) Egypt 284.3 (14.0) Abu Dhabi 2.70% 2.76% 2.67% 2.63% 2.87% Germany 2.0% 1.63% 1.61% 1.66% 1.75% 1.94% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 0.0% Source: Bloomberg France Spreads 6M Change 19.5 (2.4) Italy 123.0 (43.7) Greece 122.9 (121.3) Russia 62.5 (37.7) Japan 21.4 (0.4) 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 39.6 0.0 181.4 (63.6) Dubai 99.6 (34.5) Qatar 41.6 (9.6) Saudi Arabia 64.3 (7.3) Bahrain Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jan -- -- 16:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Dec 0.30% 0.20% 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan 218k 214k 7:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM Nov 1.00% (4.60%) QoQ (%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Qatar Islamic Bank NA NA NA 840.0 12.0 6.3 Bank Muscat NA NA NA 44.1 (1.7) (7.6) 14.4 Bank Nizwa NA NA NA 3.1 6.4 18.1 1.8 (3.2) 3.5 (0.3) 1.8 NA NA NA 1.7 68.2 (26.4) Phoenix Power Co. 22.6 (10.7) (53.0) (5.1) (12.9) NA Raysut Cement Co. NA NA NA 3.3 NA NA Renaissance Services NA NA NA 2.8 (34.5) 44.9 Alizz Islamic Bank NA NA NA (8.5) NA NA Sembcorp Salalah Power & Wat Educational Holding Group Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. January 16 , 2020 th QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 9 January, 2020) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 3.1 0.0 3.7 0.0 5.6 4.9 7.3 0.0 3.3 4.3 2.9 4.7 3.3 0.0 6.5 3.7 5.5 6.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.1 3.9 7.5 0.0 4.5 5.7 3.6 0.0 4.8 4.4 7.3 9.2 5.0 2.6 7.1 4.6 4.3 5.2 4.6 7.1 0.0 6.8 6.7 3.9 3.6 4.5 3.7 3.6 4.3 5.0 4.4 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.3 0.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 0.7 2.1 1.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 1.0 2.8 1.9 0.5 3.5 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.8 1.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.3 2.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 12.1 10.4 (M) (ç) 9.3 (H) (ç) 7.5 14.3 46.8 (M) (ç) 12.3 15.3 13.5 75.7 13.2 (M) (ç) 5.3 26.3 16.8 17.9 18.5 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 12.8 9.3 18.0 13.8 (M) (ç) 7.5 19.6 32.9 71.6 13.4 14.7 12.5 13.8 20.5 12.4 8.7 15.3 11.2 15.5 14.1 8.4 33.1 31.1 12.2 13.9 12.9 31.4 14.4 12.4 13.6 12.9 13.2 14.7 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (ç) 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (ç) 1.3 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.7 (M) (ç) 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 (M) (ç) 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.3 0.7 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.4 6.9 3.9 7.8 0.9 4.0 1.0 5.5 3.5 6.8 2.3 8.2 0.3 1.0 1.9 10.3 3.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 5.6 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.2 3.4 4.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.5 7.2 2.4 3.3 4.9 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.0 1.1 3.6 3.0 1.7 12.4 3.5 2.9 Stock Price (QR) 3.5 4.9 0.6 2.7 1.9 1.3 4.1 0.7 0.7 15.4 9.3 20.7 0.7 1.0 3.1 8.2 15.6 2.2 22.5 0.5 0.5 6.5 13.9 0.8 1.7 0.6 10.5 2.3 0.8 16.2 1.7 3.4 5.5 1.9 1.1 3.2 2.4 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.7 1.5 7.0 1.1 5.4 2.4 6.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4