GCC Daily Market Update - 16 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,190.2 18,636.1 4,827.1 6,941.2 10,739.2 4,497.9 78,472.6 16,869.6 22,932.5 3,125.2 28,152.4 6.1 59.6 20.0 25.2 25.8 (2.3) 244.0 (50.4) 165.6 74.5 NA 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 (0.3) 0.7 2.4 NA 0.8 1.1 2.0 3.2 3.9 1.3 4.1 1.8 4.8 4.9 0.4 7.2 6.9 5.1 11.2 (0.0) (3.0) 9.4 (11.4) 4.6 (11.7) 7.8 11,128.2 6,357.6 4,559.9 3,602.5 5,492.3 5,906.7 1,159.3 1,539.8 3,008.1 74.3 (16.7) 32.8 35.1 (6.7) (3.0) 1.6 0.6 8.4 0.7 (0.3) 0.7 1.0 (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.9 0.9 (0.3) 3.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.2 6.7 (8.0) 5.9 14.3 (2.2) 9.3 (4.7) 8.5 7.4 48.4 45.7 2.6 1,340.3 215.2 1.4 1.3 0.0 4.5 1.2 2.9 2.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 13.1 9.3 (10.0) (0.6) (3.4) 28.8 22.7 10.7 26.4 0.6 Global Most major global indices closed higher supported by a sharp uptick in oil prices. In US, all 3 indices closed higher with buying interest witnessed in commodity linked Materials, Industrial, and Energy sectors, however a riskon mode resulted in sell-off in defensive sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples and Telecom. In Europe, the broad based Stoxx 600 closed higher supported by firmer Healthcare stocks after Belgian pharmaceuticals group UCB won a favorable US court ruling. Britain's FTSE 100 outperformed continental European shares, as GBP continued to weaken. In Asia, China’s benchmark closed 2.4% higher led by shares of Brokerage firms, after Hong Kong Economic Journal stated that Shenzhen-Hong Kong trading link, which would allow investors in Hong Kong to invest in Shenzhen stocks, could be announced as soon as this week. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a loss of 0.3% after Japanese growth figures missed expectations. GCC Gulf stocks closed on a mixed note. Saudi’s Index fell 0.3% as banking shares dragged the index lower over concerns of liquidity pressures after King Salman on Sunday ordered a month's extra pay for Saudi military and security personnel actively involved in military operations in Yemen. Dubai’s index rose 1% tracking advances in global indices. Abu Dhabi’s Index climbed 0.7% supported by large-cap Banking stocks. Qatar QE index closed 0.7% higher on Monday, mainly on the back of stronger buying support from Gulf and foreign institutions. Buying interests were majorly witnessed in Telecom (+2.0%) and Insurance (+1.1%) sectors. Most sectors ended in green with high activity witnessed in Ooredoo, Industries Qatar, Qatar Insurance, Barwa, Mazaya Qatar. In terms of volume, Realty and Banking stocks constituted more than 59% of the total traded. Out of the 44 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 26 advanced, 14 declined and 2 stayed unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.7 1.7 3.7 100.0 DSM 20 15.5 1.7 3.7 83.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.0 1.5 3.8 734.7 UAE (ADX) 12.2 1.5 5.3 48.2 UAE (DFM) 12.8 1.3 4.2 188.0 Kuwait (KSE) 19.4 1.0 4.3 35.2 Oman (MSM) 10.3 1.2 5.0 8.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.6 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Commercial Bank Qsc Ooredoo Qsc Doha Bank Qsc Industries Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Top Losers QCFS Zad Holding Co Qatari Investors Group Qatar Islamic Bank Widam Food Co Close Price 44.5 101.0 39.7 115.4 38.5 32.0 87.0 53.5 114.0 65.5 1.5 2.5 1.0 1.7 0.6 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 (3.1) 34.7 (10.8) 3.9 2.3 (24.6) 27.7 (24.4) (14.3) (13.8) 359.9 282.4 334.1 407.0 945.2 21.3 12.6 8.8 17.5 13.6 (3.6) (10.0) (2.8) (3.1) (0.8) (1.5) (0.7) (0.6) (0.4) (0.6) (6.0) 2.6 41.9 6.8 24.1 (23.9) (11.2) 8.1 2.2 7.9 0.4 9.9 151.3 434.0 160.5 13.3 11.4 23.4 12.9 14.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 11,500 15 11,128.2 11,000 10 10,500 5 10,000 9,500 19/May 0 2/Jun 16/Jun 30/Jun Index Volume (mn) 14/Jul 28/Jul 11/Aug Index Value Closing Level 3,021.4 6,565.7 3,356.3 4,500.9 2,780.7 1,259.0 2,593.1 1D Change (%) 0.5 (0.3) 0.5 1.1 0.3 2.0 0.5 Buy (%) 31.4 27.6 59.0 9.2 31.8 41.0 Sell (%) 40.5 27.4 67.9 11.3 20.8 32.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  UAE’s Drake & Scull International reported net loss of AED 216mn in H1-16 compared to net profit of AED 34mn in H1-15 as project cancellations impacted the company’s earnings. Revenue fell 23% YoY in H1-16 due to prolonged volatility in the regional construction sector, the slow progress on ongoing projects and decline in new project awards. (Source: Trade Arabia)  US home builder confidence rose 2 points to 60 in August-16 compared to July-16, according to the National Association of Home Builders. US home builders are becoming more optimistic about the market for single-family homes. An index of their outlook for the market over the next six months rose by 1 point to 67. (Source: WSJ)   London property rents fell by 0.5% YoY in July-16, with landlords opting to rent out rather than sell houses in the wake of the UK's vote to leave EU. Across Britain, rents rose by 1.5% YoY in July-16 which was the slowest rate since 2012. (Source: CNBC) UAE-based Julphar Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries, a generic pharmaceutical manufacturer, reported revenue of AED 759.7mn (USD 206.8mn) in H1-16. The company posted a gross profit of AED 465.7mn and its net profit was AED 133.8mn. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Japanese industrial output grew 2.3% MoM in June-16. On a yearly basis, the output was down by 1.5% for the same period. Two severe earthquakes in April-16 had hampered the production at many facilities in subsequent weeks. (Source: FT) Saudi Arabia’s Al Hammadi Company for Development and Investment announced the signing of Islamic financing facility agreement worth SAR 100mn with Arab National Bank. The loan will be equally divided into specified duration medium-term and revolving short-term Tawaruq financing. (Source: Tadawul)  The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was down 1.3% MoM to 98,062 in July-16, according to The Australian Bureau of Statistics. Sales for passenger vehicles added 0.4% MoM in July-16 and sales for other vehicles fell 0.4% MoM for the same period. (Source: RTT  Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Omar Development signed a MoU with Saudi Bindawood Group, under which Bindawood Group will lease showrooms in Jabal Omar's markets for five years, with a possibility of extension. (Source: Mubasher) News)  Turkey's unemployment rate rose 0.1% YoY to 9.4% in May-16, according to Turkish Statistical Institute- TurkStat. The number of unemployed persons aged 15 years old and over rose by 106,000 to 2.89mn in May-16 compared to the same period in 2015. (Source: Daily Oman Telecommunications Company’s (Omantel’s) board has approved a proposal to distribute an interim dividend of 40% of the paid up capital among its shareholders. The record date for dividend payment is 31st August-16. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s Raysut Cement is upgrading its gas supply station at its plant in Salalah, to enable the facility to receive an additional 40,000m3 of gas per day as fuel, the Chairman said. Upon completion of the upgrade, production capacity of cement will rise to about 130,000 to 140,000 metric tons per annum. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain-based private equity investor Investcorp has acquired Nebulas Solutions, a British cyber security services firm. Nebulas would be combined with Investcorp-owned SecureLink Group which is operational in Benelux and Nordic countries. The combined company will target revenue of EUR 235mn (USD 263mn) in 2016. (Source: Trade  Sabah) GCC NEWS   Property investors in Abu Dhabi witnessed an average gross yield of 5% across the city, according to a report by Chestertons MENA. Although the market has flattened further in Q2-16 and witnessed declines as sales and rental rates, the property yields in Abu Dhabi were at 8.8% during the period. (Source: Construction Week Online) Dubai Financial Group sold its 11.8% stake in Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes Holding to France's Natixis under a debt restructuring deal, according to the Chairman of Dubai Financial Group. The stake is worth around USD 107mn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has awarded a contract worth USD 20.3mn (AED 74.6mn) for a 132/11 kilovolt (kV) substation at Warsan 2. The facility is to be connected to DEWA’s current electricity network. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) also awarded contract for the installation and launching of the main 400 kilovolt (kV) power transformer, in addition to a number of other projects worth AED 197mn (USD 53.63mn) at the Hassyan Clean Coal Power Plant. (Source: Arabia)  QATAR NEWS  Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority has awarded a 5 years facility management services contract for Louvre Abu Dhabi (LAD) to MAB Facilities Management. Under the contract, MAB will be responsible for management and supervision, fire and safety, security, technical maintenance and ICT systems services. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai government owned Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) plans to increase capacity by 50% at its Jebel Ali oil refinery to 210,000 barrels per day and undertake other key projects as part of its fiveyear strategy 2016-21. Other projects include construction of Project Falcon's 19-km jet fuel pipeline extension by 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) has announced saving of 4.8% energy use in July-16 compared to the consumption in July-15. The saving is because of Empower's summer campaign ‘Saving Starts at 24°C’ which aims to reduce district cooling as well as electricity consumption. (Source: Trade Arabia) Kuwait’s United Foodstuff Industries Group reported 40% YoY increase in net profits to KWD 234,000 (USD 775,000) in Q2-16 compared to KWD 167,100 (USD 553,500) in in Q2-15. In H1-16, net profit grew 27.5% YoY to KWD 516,530 compared to KWD 405,080 for the same period in 2015. (Source: Mubasher) Qatar’s annual CPI is up 2.8% YoY in July-16, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. The country’s cost of living based on CPI rose by 0.8% MoM in July-16 compared to June-16, mainly due to costlier transport, recreation and furniture. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar's central bank is offering QAR 3bn (USD 825mn) of government bonds in its first domestic bond sale in 2016. The new offer comprises QAR 1.5bn of three-year bonds, QAR 1bn of five-year debt and QAR 250mn of seven-year debt and QAR 250mn of 10-year debt. (Source Arabian Business)  Moody's has affirmed Ooredoo’s A2 long-term issuer rating reflecting EBITDA margin improvements post-implementation of its rationalization strategy. It affirmed A2 senior unsecured ratings of both Ooredoo International Finance Limited and Ooredoo Tamweel Limited. The outlook on all the ratings has been changed to stable from negative. (Source: Mubasher)  Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) is considering expansion to allow foundations and limited duration companies to function under its umbrella, as part of broadening its platform to suit the local market’s requirements, the Chief Excecutive Officer said. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1214 USD/QAR 3.6402 101.2600 EUR/QAR 4.0821 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2910 JPY/QAR 0.0359 USD/CHF 0.9729 GBP/QAR 4.6995 USD/CAD 1.2924 CHF/QAR 3.7416 AUD/USD 0.7674 CAD/QAR 2.8166 NZD/USD 0.7211 AUD/QAR 2.7935 USD/INR 66.3887 INR/QAR 0.0548 USD/TRY 2.9409 TRY/QAR 1.2378 USD/ZAR 13.3033 ZAR/QAR 0.2736 USD/BRL 3.1864 BRL/QAR 1.1424 FX Commentary USD continued its downward trajectory on Monday, as Friday’s data showing disappointing retail sales and weaker than expected producer prices tempered expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. Federal funds futures implied traders saw a 43% chance the central bank would increase rates at its December policy meeting, down from 47% before Friday's data. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against its peer currencies closed weaker at 95.62. GBP closed lower as Rightmove HPI came in at -1.2%, marking a second straight decline, showing weakness in house prices. JPY edged up as markets showed little reaction to data on Monday showing Japan's economy expanded 0.2% YoY in the Q2-16, well below expectations for 0.7%. AUD continued to rise supported by the country's relatively higher debt yields. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.44 0.51 0.82 1.53 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.05) 1.00 1.15 1.35 1.54 1.90 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.04 2.26 2.54 EIBOR 0.38 0.47 0.72 1.18 1.76 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.93 1.33 1.83 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5.0% 3.95% 1.81% 2.5% 0.58% 0.0% 0.98% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 31.8 UK Germany France 1.0% 1.98% 1.69% 2.0% 0.95% 0.95% 1.42% 1.26% 1.13% 2.63% 1.77% Italy Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 2.23% 1.24% 1.51% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.77% Source: Bloomberg 2.24% 2.23% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 2.25% 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 10.2 Turkey 240.0 (71.8) 33.5 1.5 Brazil 253.8 (237.1) 16.6 (4.3) Egypt 449.3 (51.1) 29.6 (8.1) Abu Dhabi 73.6 (51.4) 128.5 (21.5) Bahrain 392.1 21.1 1,018.0 (497.2) Dubai 161.1 (90.3) Russia 223.7 (128.7) Qatar 99.3 (28.8) Japan 33.5 (18.5) Saudi Arabia 166.5 (15.0) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:30 UK CPI MoM Period Survey Prior Jul (0.10%) 0.20% 11:30 UK CPI YoY 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Jul 0.50% 0.50% Aug 50.2 49.8 12:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Aug 2 (6.8)d 15:30 US CPI MoM Jul 0.00% 0.20% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Tamdeen Real Estate Co Ksc Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 1.56 (40.46) (72.18) 805.53 (37.32) (21.85) (207.64) (2,122.56) (2,218.52) National Real Estate Co NA NA NA 0.00 (99.91) (99.89) Al Ain Ahlia Ins. Co. NA NA NA 23.70 260.69 10.41 Islamic Arab Insurance Com NA NA NA (63.83) 42.92 (34.61) Union Insurance Co NA NA NA (4.45) (146.68) (8,524.88) Foodco Holding Pjsc NA NA NA 1.43 (85.73) (95.76) Privatization Holding Compan NA NA NA 0.77 (19.64) (152.21) Kipco Asset Management Co NA NA NA 0.59 1,560.32 335.69 Drake & Scull International Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 6.8 0.0 7.6 1.6 5.5 4.6 2.7 0.0 3.7 6.1 1.9 5.2 3.2 5.3 4.1 4.7 4.9 0.0 8.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 7.1 2.8 4.3 5.6 3.6 3.2 2.3 6.7 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.7 2.3 3.0 6.5 2.6 5.8 2.5 1.9 7.1 3.6 3.0 0.0 2.3 2.1 5.0 5.6 4.9 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.8 1.0 2.6 1.1 2.8 1.1 2.5 0.9 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.8 4.5 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.8 3.5 2.8 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.0 2.6 0.6 2.9 1.7 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.8 16.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.1 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 50.2 12.8 12.5 11.1 31.0 11.9 23.0 26.9 13.2 11.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.7 14.8 6.9 13.2 13.2 19.0 17.5 8.6 20.7 16.5 23.4 11.8 11.1 16.8 21.9 12.3 19.2 4.5 13.7 12.7 18.3 30.6 14.1 16.2 24.6 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.3 17.3 13.8 10.4 12.6 14.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 42.9 44.0 24.6 39.6 68.1 18.1 38.4 18.8 12.0 114.1 65.2 158.0 11.5 94.1 220.3 32.0 154.0 12.4 11.9 66.0 87.0 13.4 36.4 115.4 89.4 19.4 232.5 53.5 44.9 88.5 24.1 21.5 85.0 45.5 61.6 38.0 20.0 14.6 21.2 101.4 12.2 58.5 24.8 90.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4