GCC Daily Market Update - 15 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 15 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,578.9 23,409.5 6,293.6 7,414.4 13,033.5 5,315.6 110,148.5 22,380.0 29,152.1 3,429.5 32,867.2 (6.0) (30.2) (22.5) (0.8) (40.9) (26.1) 1,288.9 (1.0) (30.1) (18.3) (74.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.0) (0.3) (0.5) 1.2 0.0 (0.1) (0.5) (0.2) 0.1 0.1 0.7 (1.0) (1.5) (3.4) 0.0 1.7 3.2 1.1 (1.0) 15.2 18.5 29.4 3.8 13.5 9.3 41.0 17.1 32.5 10.5 23.4 7,873.8 6,979.3 4,366.4 3,489.0 6,250.1 5,114.7 1,259.9 1,561.1 3,539.6 16.9 17.8 (3.2) 11.3 (0.6) 30.8 (3.0) 3.4 (4.3) 0.2 0.3 (0.1) 0.3 (0.0) 0.6 (0.2) 0.2 (0.1) (3.6) 0.6 (2.5) (4.0) (4.0) 2.1 (1.3) (3.7) 0.3 (24.6) (3.2) (4.0) (1.2) 8.7 (11.6) 3.2 (0.1) 21.7 62.2 55.7 3.1 1,282.9 306.5 (1.0) (1.1) (0.1) 4.0 (5.2) (1.5) (1.9) (2.1) 0.3 (1.7) 0.1 1.3 6.5 1.0 (1.7) 8.2 2.6 (17.2) 11.4 21.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Global Markets ended lower yesterday. US Equity market continued its downward trajectory, amid continuous uncertainty among investors over the updates on US tax reforms. The S&P 500 declined 0.2%, pressured by Energy and Materials stocks. Energy shares inched lower, after IEA released bearish outlook on oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell by 0.6%, as Industrials, Precious Metals and Mining stocks slumped after Chinese data showed slowdown in industrial output in October-2017. The index was also weighed by sharp rally in EUR. In the UK, gains in Retailing shares limited the downside in the broad-benchmark index. The Chinese benchmark fell 0.5%, after data pointed towards lower liquidity in the economy. The Nikkei index ended broadly unchanged, amid weakness in JPY. GCC GCC markets ended mixed yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark rose 0.3% showing some recovery from the impact of recent political turmoil. The index was supported by rally in Transportation, Media and Healthcare Equipment stocks. The Dubai benchmark index gained yesterday with GFH Financial continued to rise after the company disclosed details of its business strategy on Monday. Amanat Holdings dropped 2.4%, after Qatar First Bank’s subsidiary sold its stake in the company. Union Properties settled mostly flat, after reporting a loss in Q3-17, compared to a profit in same period last year. Qatar The QE Index gained 0.2% yesterday. Qatari and foreign institutional investors were among the net buyers during yesterday’s trading session. Ezdan Holding shares fell by 2.3% after S&P trimmed its credit rating to BB with negative outlook. Trade turnover and volumes increased during yesterday’s session, with Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for more than 55% of the total volume. Out of 45 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 21 advanced, 16 declined and 4 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.1 1.1 4.9 52.6 DSM 20 12.6 1.2 5.0 45.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.4 1.6 3.4 866.8 UAE (ADX) 15.7 1.3 4.6 33.1 UAE (DFM) 21.0 1.3 4.1 125.8 Kuwait (KSE) 15.3 1.0 5.5 37.1 Oman (MSM) 11.6 1.0 5.1 3.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.0 0.8 6.2 1.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Cinema & Film Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Dlala Holding Top Losers Medicare Group Salam Intl Invest Islamic Holding Group Ezdan Holding Group Qatari Investors Group Close Price 11.2 26.5 40.7 47.8 15.8 0.7 1.5 2.0 2.3 0.7 6.7 5.8 5.2 5.1 4.3 (46.9) (3.6) (44.8) (5.6) (26.7) (42.0) (5.7) (42.8) (1.5) (25.0) 239.1 14.8 292.6 0.5 184.8 25.4 39.6 17.1 11.3 24.0 50.7 6.1 26.0 7.8 24.3 (3.8) (0.3) (1.4) (0.2) (0.5) (7.0) (5.3) (5.2) (2.3) (2.1) (19.4) (44.7) (57.4) (48.4) (58.5) (15.7) (43.5) (51.8) (47.0) (55.6) 59.9 3.3 15.4 466.9 21.9 21.6 17.3 47.9 10.6 12.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 15.0 9,000 10.0 7,873.8 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 20/Aug 0.0 3/Sep 17/Sep 1/Oct Index Volume (mn) 15/Oct 29/Oct 12/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,521.8 4,299.3 2,415.7 2,788.9 1,396.5 978.3 1,513.6 1D Change (%) 0.1 (0.2) 0.4 3.9 (1.2) 1.1 0.1 Buy (%) 21.2 25.5 46.7 6.9 46.4 53.3 Sell (%) 29.9 22.9 52.8 7.1 40.1 47.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 15 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  Central banks of the US, Europe, England and Japan have pledged to slowly withdraw the huge monetary incentive, while accustoming the investors off easy money and continue to keep them guided about future policy. (Source: Reuters)  Dubai based property platform, Dubizzle, acquired two local companies, Masterkey and Airlist, to offer improved and complete services to real estate industry professionals across the country. (Source: Trade Arabia)  BP is expected to increase the recovery rates of its oilfields in Abu Dhabi to 60%-70% from the current 30%-40%, according to the company’s senior official. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah based Air Arabia has inked a leasing agreement with US based, Air Lease Corporation (ALC), for 6 Airbus A321neo Long Range aircrafts which are expected to be delivered by 2019. (Source: Trade Arabia) UK CPI increased 3.0% YoY and 0.1% MoM in October-17, driven by increase in cost of food which was offset by lower motor fuel prices. Core inflation excluding energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, grew 2.7% YoY during the same month. (Source: Market Insider)  Saudi Arabia’s central bank announced that it has suspended currency exchange house, Saleh Hussain al-Amoudi Sons Co, from conducting business for violations relating to suspected money laundering. (Source:  Germany’s CPI rose by 1.6% YoY but was unchanged on monthly basis in October-17. The harmonized index of consumer prices, rose 1.5% YoY while it fell 0.1% MoM during the same month. (Source: iii)  Saudi budget carrier, Flyadeal, has signed a four year engineering services contract with Lufthansa Technik which would cover complete operations of Flyadeal’s A320 fleet. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China's industrial production rose by 6.2% YoY while retail sales increased by 10.0% YoY in October-17 but the growth rate was slowed down when compared to preceding month due to steps taken to curb excessive debt and factory pollution. (Source: iii)  Bahrain’s non-oil sector growth is expected to remain steady at 3.0% 4.0% per year due to increasing investment spending, particularly in the construction sector, according to the National Bank of Kuwait report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bank of Japan’s Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda stated that the central bank would continue with loose monetary policy easing to safeguard that positive developments in the inflation. He added that inflation expectations are likely to rise steadily. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain based National Oil and Gas Authority, Noga has announced that the repairs of Bahrain Petroleum Company’s AB3 line, which suffered an incident in Buri village are completed and the pipeline capacity is fully restored. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based Alafco Aviation Lease and Finance Company, has inked a deal with Boeing for 20 additional 737 MAX 8s at the 2017 Dubai Airshow. The deal is valued at USD 2.2bn at current prices. (Source: Trade   Eurozone gross domestic product grew 0.6% MoM and 2.5% YoY in Q3-17. The Germany and Spain economy improved by 0.8% MoM each, while France and Italy declined by 0.5% MoM each during the same period. (Source: Market Insider) GCC NEWS  GCC has the world’s largest construction pipeline with almost USD 3.1tn worth of projects planned or under construction in the region, according to MEED Projects. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  UAE military signed a deal worth AED 2.5bn (USD 684.4mn) with U.S. missile maker, Raytheon Co. RTN.N, to buy GBU-10 and GBU-12 Paveway laser guided bomb kits. (Source: Zawya)  UAE signed agreements to purchase artillery from Germany's Rheinmetall RHMG.DE and a transportation contract with Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways. (Source: Zawya)   Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) is developing a fund amounting to USD 100.0mn to invest in early-stage and growth startups in the financial technology sector, the governor of DIFC, Essa Kazim, said. (Source: Zawya) Dubai is expected to deliver a total of 163,840 new properties through 387 real estate projects by 2021, according to FAM properties report. Out of the total, 24 residential and commercial developments are expected to deliver 7,336 units by the end of 2017, followed by 63 (27,360) in 2018, 36 (19,850) in 2019, 12 (17,754) in 2020 and 1 (114) in 2021. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Municipality has inked an energy co-operation agreement with Dubai Land Department to support the Dubai Lamp initiative, which is a research partnership between Philips Lighting and the municipality. The partnership developed 200 lumen per Watt LED lamp and is expected to replace 80.0% of regional lamps. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Fajr Capital, has offloaded its investments in National Petroleum Services (NPS) and invest the proceeds in National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (NESR). The deal is expected to be completed by end of 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Aviation District, has introduced another phase called a Suppliers Complex, to its Aerospace Supply Chain development. It is a landside free zone development of multi-purpose buildings for businesses that are part of the global aerospace supply chain. (Source: Trade Arabia) Reuters) Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar CPI grew by 0.3% MoM and 0.2% YoY in October-17, driven by annual increase in prices of transport (7.8%), food and beverages (4.9%), health (3.6%) and education (0.4%). Housing and utility prices declined 5.4% YoY and 0.4% MoM in the same period. (Source: The Peninsula)  US is planning to build trade plans in order to diversify its exports to Qatar, William Grant, Charge d’Affaires, US embassy in Qatar, said. (Source: The Peninsula)  Emir H H Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has inked a number of agreements and MoU which includes an agreement on Defence cooperation. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatari-Tunisian economic forum has been set up with an aim strengthen the bilateral partnership between both countries and open a new horizons of cooperation to boost bilateral trade volume. (Source: The Peninsula)  S&P downgraded its long term corporate credit rating for Ezdan Holding, to BB from BBB- with a negative outlook. This was due to the company’s financial risk profile impacted by downturn in the country’s operating environment. (Source: Bloomberg)  Qatar First Bank’s subsidiary Astro AD Cayman Ltd has sold its stake in UAE-based healthcare and education investment firm, Amanat Holdings for AED150 mn. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar Petroleum has inked an agreement to acquire a 30.0% participating interest in the contractors interest under the exploration and production sharing agreement for Block 52 offshore of Oman. (Source: The Peninsula)  Commercial Bank’s Transaction Banking Department has been awarded with a contract for cash management from Northwestern University in Qatar (NU-Q) after a competitive tender process with other Qatari banks. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 15 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1828 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.4600 EUR/QAR 4.3072 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3195 JPY/QAR 0.0321 USD/CHF 0.9893 GBP/QAR 4.8050 USD/CAD 1.2731 CHF/QAR 3.6809 AUD/USD 0.7631 CAD/QAR 2.8603 NZD/USD 0.6876 AUD/QAR 2.7788 USD/INR 64.9200 INR/QAR 0.0561 USD/TRY 3.8862 TRY/QAR 0.9370 USD/ZAR 14.3702 ZAR/QAR 0.2534 USD/BRL 3.3152 BRL/QAR 1.0984 FX Commentary The USD weakened against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.7% lower at 93.834. The weakness in the dollar index was primarily driven by the strength in the EUR. The gains were triggered after the German and Eurozone’s GDP data provided a strong assessment of the economic health of the common currency bloc. Better than expected US producer price inflation failed to boost the USD during yesterday’s trading session. The GBP inched higher against the USD, however, remained lower against the EUR, following the release of dismal British inflation data. The commodity-linked currencies remained broadly lower against the USD. The CAD fell, amidst weakness in oil prices, while NZD and AUD were impacted by reports on discouraging Chinese retail sales and industrial production data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.25 1.42 1.88 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.05 2.18 2.23 2.45 2.97 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.48 1.81 2.26 2.0% EIBOR 0.91 1.08 1.31 1.61 2.27 BMIBOR 1.03 1.23 1.75 2.13 2.75 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 QAIBOR KIBOR 1.68% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 UK Germany France 1.87% 2.0% 1.0% 2.08% 1.89% 1.69% 2.57% 2.39% 1.24% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 2.05% 2.24% 2.36% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs US Swap Rates 2.34% 3.71% 4.51% 2.82% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.22% 3.45% 2.14% Source: Bloomberg 2.11% 3.19% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 0.2 Turkey 216.1 8.9 24.5 0.0 Brazil 183.5 (17.4) 11.9 (6.6) Egypt 362.3 17.3 19.6 (12.5) Abu Dhabi 69.0 24.6 Italy 121.1 (44.9) Bahrain 289.3 61.4 Greece 469.0 (218.9) Dubai 142.2 26.8 Russia 140.8 (12.1) Qatar 109.0 45.1 Japan 33.0 7.0 Saudi Arabia 105.5 12.1 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Sep F - (1.10%) 10:45 France CPI YoY Oct F 1.10% 1.10% 12:30 UK Jobless Claims Change Oct - 1.7k 16:30 US CPI MoM Oct 0.10% 0.50% 16:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Oct 0.00% 1.60% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) Emaar Properties YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3.9 NA NA NA 1,510.0 31.9 Gulf Pharmaceutical Ind 353.4 15.4 31.0 22.1 (11.5) 2.3 Dubai Refreshments Co 313.3 18.9 36.6 60.2 70.7 143.7 National Real Estate Co NA NA NA 5.1 45.7 39.1 Gulf Cable & Electrical Ind NA NA NA 1.0 20.5 (6.2) Al Sagr National Insurance NA NA NA 4.7 NA (31.2) 67.2 Renaissance Services 48.4 (1.8) 5.1 (9.4) 157.2 Combined Group Contracting NA NA NA 0.9 0.6 68.4 Alkout Industrial Projects NA NA NA 1.8 36.9 (9.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 15 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.9 6.1 5.8 6.1 0.0 5.0 8.7 2.6 7.2 3.8 6.9 5.9 6.6 3.8 8.1 0.0 13.1 6.5 6.6 7.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 6.6 5.5 4.2 5.4 4.3 4.1 8.1 6.7 4.4 5.4 42.3 3.7 3.8 7.3 5.6 8.9 6.4 0.0 9.8 7.4 4.2 0.0 3.5 4.2 7.1 7.6 6.9 4.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 0.6 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.4 3.1 0.6 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.0 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.6 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 8.7 41.8 26.0 7.8 47.5 9.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 8.5 8.6 19.5 9.8 5.6 21.6 13.7 39.7 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 17.4 9.3 5.2 10.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 22.4 12.8 11.9 12.1 9.1 10.7 17.7 25.3 9.2 18.3 54.2 11.3 19.8 8.3 10.8 42.5 7.4 9.5 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.0 10.5 9.6 16.7 11.4 11.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 28.0 26.9 15.8 27.4 26.0 12.3 34.8 8.2 5.3 95.0 46.0 120.8 7.0 58.0 50.7 136.0 26.5 86.0 5.5 6.1 53.9 68.0 6.4 15.2 5.4 95.8 11.1 175.7 24.3 37.1 59.5 11.2 14.2 40.7 40.0 47.8 28.1 7.8 6.7 12.7 83.0 6.1 38.1 14.1 46.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ال قاب ضة ا س ت ثمار‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4