GCC Daily Market Update - 14 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 14 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,498.4 22,158.2 6,004.4 7,379.7 12,553.6 5,217.6 108,155.5 19,865.8 27,894.1 3,384.1 32,186.4 1.9 39.3 8.7 (21.0) 28.8 8.6 (974.1) 89.2 (78.2) 4.7 27.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 (0.3) 0.2 0.2 (0.9) 0.5 (0.3) 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 (0.7) 4.1 2.6 (1.7) 1.1 (0.3) 0.7 1.4 11.6 12.1 23.5 3.3 9.3 7.3 38.4 3.9 26.8 9.0 20.9 8,427.8 7,379.6 4,453.5 3,654.6 6,924.9 5,016.6 1,306.0 1,664.3 3,433.3 (43.8) (20.4) (16.6) 1.7 18.9 5.9 (1.6) (5.0) (3.9) (0.5) (0.3) (0.4) 0.1 0.3 0.1 (0.1) (0.3) (0.1) (4.2) 1.7 (0.3) 0.5 0.5 (0.7) 0.3 (0.4) 1.7 (19.2) 2.3 (2.0) 3.5 20.5 (13.2) 7.0 5.9 18.1 55.2 49.3 3.1 1,324.2 296.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 (4.6) (5.5) 1.6 2.2 1.9 (0.4) (1.8) 5.0 4.2 0.8 0.4 (4.0) (3.2) (8.4) (17.7) 15.0 17.9 Global US markets continued their upward trajectory to settle at record high level for the second consecutive session, amid persistent optimism about the introduction of tax reforms from the Trump administration. The S&P 500 index edged 0.1% higher, led by gains in Energy and Consumer Discretionary shares, however, losses in Real Estate and Healthcare shares capped the broad market losses. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended slightly lower yesterday, after rising for five straight sessions. The UK’s benchmark declined by 0.3%, as Mining stocks in the index lost ground on account of losses in metal prices. In Japan, the weakness in the JPY continued to support the Nikkei index. The index also found additional support from gains in Financial shares. GCC GCC markets closed mixed yesterday. In Saudi, Almarai and Savola declined 9.1% and 2.0%, respectively, after the latter indicated that it is selling 2% of its stake in the former. Banque Saudi Fransi edged marginally lower, continuing on its previous day’s losses. In Abu Dhabi, Dana Gas rose 1.3%, in an active trade. Kuwaiti benchmark outperformed its peer indices, led by gains in Basic Material and Industrial stocks. Bahraini benchmark edged 0.1% lower, on the back of increased bearish bets in Banking and Services shares. Qatar QE index edged 0.5% lower, continuing on its downward trajectory, ending below its multi month low levels. Persistent bearish pressure from Non Qatari institutional investors continued to weigh on the market performance. Trade turnover and volumes rose, with Banking and Telecom sectors together accounting for more than 80.0% of the total volumes. The index found some buying support in the final minutes of the trading, which limited the broad market losses. Out of 45 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 20 declined, 18 advanced and 3 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.0 1.2 4.5 56.2 DSM 20 14.5 1.4 4.1 44.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.0 1.7 3.2 1,025.4 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.6 64.4 UAE (DFM) 24.2 1.4 3.9 31.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 87.7 Oman (MSM) 11.6 1.0 5.3 3.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 0.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Insur Gulf Warehousing Co Medicare Group Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Navigation Top Losers Zad Holding Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar Elect & Water Aamal Co Qatar Industrial Manu Close Price 37.0 47.7 69.0 36.8 59.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.7 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 (21.3) (14.8) 9.7 (2.1) (38.1) (19.6) (11.7) (24.5) 3.8 (34.1) 1.3 79.4 6.0 412.3 109.1 71.6 52.3 178.5 9.3 41.1 (2.4) (1.7) (5.0) (0.2) (0.9) (3.3) (3.1) (2.7) (2.4) (2.1) (19.7) 3.4 (21.4) (32.0) (7.6) (14.0) (8.2) (17.4) (39.8) (3.3) 0.2 9.1 2.5 12.3 51.5 12.6 312.9 13.1 3.2 9.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 18.7 13.3 28.9 13.5 15.8 Qatar DSM Index 10,300 15.0 9,800 8,427.8 10.0 9,300 5.0 8,800 8,300 18/Jun 0.0 2/Jul 16/Jul 30/Jul Index Volume (mn) 13/Aug 27/Aug 10/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,619.8 5,053.6 2,540.9 3,781.6 1,779.1 1,037.2 1,819.2 1D Change (%) 0.5 (0.3) (0.9) (1.0) (0.7) 0.7 0.8 Buy (%) 51.1 22.2 73.3 6.6 20.1 26.7 Sell (%) 38.4 23.3 61.7 7.4 30.9 38.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 14 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US producer price index increased by 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY in August-17 mainly driven by a surge in the cost of gasoline. (Source: CNBC)  Eurozone employment grew by 0.4% QoQ and 1.6% YoY to 155.6mn in Q2-17. Malta, Spain, Greece and Poland reported the highest quarterly increases. (Source: Market Insider)  Eurozone industrial production increased by 0.1% MoM and 0.4% YoY in July-17. Output of capital goods increased by 0.8% MoM and intermediate goods by 0.5% MoM while energy output decreased 1.2% MoM and non-durable consumer goods output decreased by 0.4% MoM in July-17. (Source: Market Insider)  Oman’s CPI increased 1.0% YoY in August-17 driven by 3.5% rise in prices of furnishings and household equipment, 1.5% increase in Housing, water, electricity, gas and 1.1% rise in other fuels and foods and non-alcoholic beverages. (Source: Oman Observer)  Four consortiums led by global players namely JGC, GS Inima, Acwa, and Tedagua are vying for Oman’s Sharqiyah independent seawater desalination project with a capacity of 17.6mn imperial gallons per day. The plant is expected to start its operations in Q3-19. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China based Dalian Mingyuan Holdings Group Company plans to build 10.0mn tons petrochemical project worth USD 2.8bn to manufacture olefin with methanol at China-Oman industrial park in Oman. . (Source: Trade Arabia)  UK jobless rate declined to 4.3% and number of unemployed decreased by 75,000 QoQ to 1.5mn during the period May-17 to July17. Average earnings including bonus rose by 2.1% YoY and real pay declined by 0.4% YoY for the same period. (Source: Market Insider)  Oman Power and Water Procurement Company is expected to start the tendering process for setting up the Sultanate’s first large scale solar Independent Power Project before the end of 2017, the company’s CEO said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Germany's consumer price inflation rose by 1.8% YoY in August-17. Excluding food and energy, inflation stood at 1.6% and food price growth increased to 3.0%. (Source: Market Insider)  Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects has appointed NBK Capitalled consortium as the advisor and offering manager for the distribution and transfer of its shares in Shamal Azzour Al-Oula K.S.C.  Turkey’s Treasury borrowed TRY 6.3bn (USD 1.8bn) from the domestic market in two separate auctions. The auction included TRY 4.2bn (USD 1.2bn) five-year fixed coupon bonds maturing in 17th August-22 and TRY 2.1bn (USD 617.0mn) ten-year CPI indexed government bonds maturing on 7th July-27. (Source: AA) (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS  Qatar secured 55th position among 130 countries by scoring 63.97 in the World Economic Forum's global human capital index outperforming rest of the countries in the Mena region whose overall average score was 55.91. The report added that relative to its income levels, Qatar has additional opportunities to further boost their human capital performance (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s cabinet has taken the measures to amend some provisions of Law No 4 of 2008 and issue a draft law that makes it mandatory for the lessor to register leasing agreements within 60 days of signing the contract. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s Cabinet approved a draft MoU on facilitating transport and transit traffic between Qatar, Iran and Turkey. The trade route from Turkey via Bushehr port in Iran is expected to help reduce the cost of transporting goods to Qatar and also the travel time. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar reported 1,766 new company registration during August-17, according to Monthly Business Progress Report on the Commerce Sector. This included registration of 1,409 main commercial records and 357 branch commercial records. Limited Liability companies accounted for 61.0% of new commercial records. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is estimated to have injected about USD 40.0bn out of the total USD 340.0bn of its financial reserves in the first two months of diplomatic stir in order to support its economy, according to Moody’s. GCC NEWS  Moody’s Investors Service said that the diplomatic disagreement that took place between Qatar and a number of GCC and Arab countries is credit negative for all GCC countries. (Source: Mubasher)  UAE Cabinet has approved visa on arrival for Indian passport holders with UK and EU residency visa to advance the UAE-India relations in economic, politics, and trade. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai based MAG Property Development has launched AED 4.0bn (USD 1.1bn) worth MAG Eye residential project in Dubai for customers looking for exceptional investment opportunities. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai government raised USD 1.1bn loan that will be used to extend the city's metro rail system, according to sources. This completes the first step of an infrastructure financing programme worth USD 2.8bn, the remainder of which is expected to be obtained via loans guaranteed by export credit agencies. (Source: Zawya)   Dubai Land Department has signed an agreement with China based UC Forward to promote the Dubai’s property market to Chinese investors. It aims to secure AED 1.0bn (USD 272.0mn) worth of investment from Chinese buyers. (Source: Zawya) Abu Dhabi based Dana Gas rejected proposal of Islamic bond holders of USD 700.0mn to restructure the Sukuk, which will mature in October-17. The proposals included an extension of the sukuk's maturity by 3 years, cash paydown to holders of USD 300.0mn and to maintain current rates of periodic profit distribution to investors. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar accounts for more than 10.0% of GCC’s retail e-commerce market, which is expected to touch USD 41.5bn by 2020 led by increase in use of Internet and social media, better access to secure payment gateways and gradual improvement in the delivery system, according to Alpen Capital report. (Source: Gulf Times)  RasGas Company will sign a 15-year agreement with Bangladesh on 25th Septemeber-17 to export 1.8mn tons a year of LNG for the first five years and 2.5mn tons a year for the next 10 after that, said managing director of Petrobangla. The agreement will start in 2018. (Source: Zawya)  RAK Properties is planning to invest AED 1.5bn in 2017 which will be mainly in Hayat Island alongside with other projects, the company’s CEO said. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia’s longest railway running 2,750 km between capital Riyadh and the northern city of Gurayat being built at a cost of SAR 10.0bn (USD 2.7bn) will start its operation on 24th December-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based food maker, Savola Group, will sell 2.0% stake in Almarai for SAR 1.1bn (USD 307.6mn) consisting of 16.0mn shares. Currently it holds 34.5% stake in Almarai. (Source: Zawya) (Source: Reuters)  Qatar’s USD 300bn sovereign wealth fund was less impacted by the Gulf political crisis and the fund would continue its recent policy of targeting hi-tech and infrastructure companies in the US, CEO of Qatar Investment Authority said. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 14 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1915 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.4900 EUR/QAR 4.3388 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3241 JPY/QAR 0.0330 USD/CHF 0.9641 GBP/QAR 4.8217 USD/CAD 1.2172 CHF/QAR 3.7771 AUD/USD 0.7986 CAD/QAR 2.9917 NZD/USD 0.7241 AUD/QAR 2.9081 USD/INR 63.4963 INR/QAR 0.0573 USD/TRY 3.4579 TRY/QAR 1.0531 USD/ZAR 13.1341 ZAR/QAR 0.2773 USD/BRL 3.1353 BRL/QAR 1.1615 FX Commentary The USD traded higher against a basket of currencies yesterday, as data indicated that the US producer price inflation data rebounded during August-17. Moreover, optimism of a possible introduction of tax reforms also supported the USD. The dollar index rose 0.6% to settle at 92.430. The EUR traded lower against the USD, despite the German consumer price inflation met market expectations in August-17. The GBP traded lower against the USD, as the UK’s wage inflation growth came at the lower end of the market expectations. The CAD traded higher, as strength in oil prices supported the currency. Against the safe havens the USD traded higher, as the CHF and JPY weakened against the USD. However, the losses in the CHF were limited, as producer and import prices in Switzerland topped market expectations in August-17. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.32 1.71 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.17) QAIBOR 1.99 2.08 2.23 2.44 2.93 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.87 1.09 1.34 1.55 2.14 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.03 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.35% 0.0% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.4 UK Germany France 2.0% 1.59% 1.0% 1.98% 1.84% 1.51% 1.34% 1.03% 1.21% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.84% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.24% 1.77% 2.00% 2.19% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 2.45% 3.03% 4.27% 1.92% Source: Bloomberg 2.15% 2.81% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 2.79% 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 0.8 Turkey 164.3 (74.8) 23.1 0.5 Brazil 183.5 (52.7) 15.4 (6.0) Egypt 357.5 0.4 22.3 (42.9) Abu Dhabi 58.6 14.8 Italy 142.1 (51.6) Bahrain 238.9 11.1 Greece 524.2 (573.9) Dubai 145.4 (1.5) Russia 138.5 (37.9) Qatar 91.5 (26.3) Japan 35.1 10.8 Saudi Arabia 85.6 (2.7) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Jul F - (0.80%) 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY 09:45 France CPI EU Harmonized MoM Jul F - 4.70% Aug F 0.60% 0.60% 09:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY 09:45 France CPI MoM Aug F 1.00% 1.00% Aug F 0.50% 09:45 France 0.50% CPI YoY Aug F 0.90% 11:00 Italy 0.90% CPI EU Harmonized YoY Aug F 1.40% 1.40% 14:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Sep-14th 0.25% 0.25% 14:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 435b 435b 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-09th 300k 298k 15:30 US CPI MoM Aug 0.30% 0.10% 15:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.20% 0.10% Sep-08th - 423.1b 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 0.9 122.3 (89.7) Boubyan Petrochemicals Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 14 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 8.3 2.3 6.2 5.4 4.0 0.0 5.3 7.7 2.6 6.2 3.6 6.0 4.4 6.0 4.0 6.4 0.0 9.8 5.7 6.3 6.1 6.5 5.9 0.0 4.6 4.6 4.2 2.4 7.5 5.6 4.6 4.0 4.3 2.1 4.1 6.7 2.7 8.0 4.7 0.0 8.3 5.8 4.2 0.0 3.3 3.4 6.3 5.9 5.7 4.2 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.9 1.8 0.7 2.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.6 3.8 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.2 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.7 2.1 0.5 2.4 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.4 66.8 29.5 8.8 63.6 10.2 13.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 9.8 9.0 23.2 10.4 6.3 29.0 15.1 59.8 14.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 11.0 5.6 11.7 13.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 16.9 20.3 16.8 12.6 19.0 9.3 10.9 17.1 26.0 8.2 18.4 18.7 12.3 17.5 9.2 13.9 41.4 9.3 11.9 14.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.8 13.3 10.3 15.9 12.3 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.1 29.7 17.2 30.0 44.0 12.1 36.8 12.6 6.5 90.2 52.1 123.7 8.1 66.8 69.0 150.0 25.0 101.0 7.6 8.2 61.7 71.6 9.3 17.0 7.3 87.3 13.0 178.5 41.3 41.1 65.1 15.2 14.0 62.0 37.0 52.3 31.2 10.7 9.8 15.1 84.0 8.3 47.7 16.0 59.2 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ - Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4