GCC Daily Market Update - 13 June

Transcription

1. June 13 , 2022 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq 100 FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,900.9 (117.0) 31,392.8 (880.0) 11,832.8 (437.0) 7,317.5 (158.7) 13,761.8 (437.0) 6,187.2 (171.2) 2,543.1 (28.5) 27,824.3 (422.2) 21,806.2 (62.9) 3,284.8 45.9 54,303.4 (1,016.8) (2.9) (2.7) (3.6) (2.1) (3.1) (2.7) (1.1) (1.5) (0.3) 1.4 (1.8) (4.9) (4.3) (5.7) (2.9) (4.0) (3.6) (1.0) 1.3 2.4 3.2 (1.9) (18.2) (13.6) (27.5) (0.9) (13.4) (13.5) 36.9 (3.4) (6.8) (9.8) (6.8) 12,917.5 12,322.4 9,628.4 3,376.5 7,467.4 4,125.8 1,870.1 804.2 5,002.5 (181.7) (281.5) NA NA (98.7) (8.8) (13.1) (0.7) (22.1) (1.4) (2.2) NA NA (1.6) (0.2) (0.7) (0.1) (0.4) 2.1 (1.3) (2.7) (0.9) (2.6) 0.1 (1.3) (1.7) (4.1) 12.7 11.7 13.4 5.7 8.0 0.1 4.8 8.7 (22.5) 122.0 120.7 8.9 1,871.5 4.3 (1.1) (0.8) (0.1) 22.7 (0.1) (0.9) (0.7) (1.3) 1.2 (2.0) (0.7) 5.2 8.7 1.6 0.1 56.9 60.4 137.3 2.4 (3.5) Source: Refinitiv Eikon QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW Qatar DSM Index P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All Share 15.3 1.5 3.4 131.4 DSM 20 15.3 1.6 3.5 115.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 19.5 2.5 2.6 1,964.0 UAE (ADX) 20.7 2.6 2.0 359.4 UAE (DFM) 13.1 1.1 0.0 4.7 Kuwait (KSE) 12.3 1.6 2.8 197.1 Oman (MSM) 10.9 0.7 5.1 7.5 Source: Refinitiv Eikon Bahrain (BAX) 7.2 1.0 4.4 1.9 QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Global Global equity markets slumped on Friday after a bigger-than-expected US inflation spike in May raised concerns the Federal Reserve may tighten policy for too long and cause a sharp slowdown. On Wall Street, the DJIA fell 2.7%, the S&P 500 lost 2.9% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.6%. European shares extended losses to a fourth consecutive session. All sectors were trading in red with banks weighing the most in the panEuropean STOXX 600 index, which lost 2.7%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index edged down 1.5%, a five-session winning run on Friday, tracking Wall Street’s plunge overnight as investors braced for key US inflation data that will guide the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening path. China stocks rose, with continued strong buying by foreign investors helping benchmark indexes to cast off early losses, while cautious hopes on regulatory easing lifted tech firms in Hong Kong. GCC Stock markets in the Middle East fell sharply on Sunday, mirroring the previous session’s slide in oil prices and global stocks caused by worries that a higher-than-expected US inflation in May will lead to a long-term policy tightening and result in a sharp economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index tumbled 2.2%, dragged down by a sharp decline in financial and energy stocks. Oil giant Saudi Aramco dropped 3%, while Al Rajhi Bank fell 1.2%. No trading happened in Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets as the exchange remained closed. Qatar The Qatari benchmark index lost 1.4% on Sunday. Gulf International Services (+4.4%) and Mannai Corporation (+1.6%) were the top gainers of the day. Out of the 45 traded stocks, 11 advanced, 34 declined. Total traded volume in the market was lower than the previous trading session. The Telecoms index advanced 0.1% and the Banks & Financial Services index decreased by 1.5%. Source: Refinitiv Eikon Qatar Trading Activity Close 1D Change Price Value (%) Top Gainers GULF INTR SERV MANNAI CORP GULF WAREHOUSI QA NAT CEMENT WIDAM FOOD CO Top Losers QA COMM BK QA ISLAMIC BK QATAR FIRST BA QA INDUS MANF BALADNA COMPAN 2.3 9.3 4.9 5.2 3.1 7.1 22.5 1.4 3.7 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.6) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) 4.4 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 (2.7) (2.7) (2.6) (2.6) (2.4) Performance YTD YoY (%) (%) 35.1 96.9 8.4 1.6 (15.1) 5.7 22.7 (10.5) 20.5 23.0 Source: Refinitiv Eikon; Note: Prices are in local currency. 47.3 158.3 (4.1) 3.3 (32.6) 34.4 30.7 (15.4) 28.1 11.7 Vol. (‘000) P/E TTM 45,489.7 90.2 811.1 669.7 280.6 30.1 16.6 12.6 14.6 NA 510.5 1,395.0 1,605.1 606.2 10,840.2 13.5 15.3 7.5 11.7 25.3 14,800 14,400 14,000 13,600 13,200 12,800 12,400 12,000 11,600 16-Mar 12,917.5 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 30-Mar 13-Apr 27-Apr Index Volume (mn) 11-May 25-May 8-Jun Index Value Closing Level 5,358.6 8,706.6 4,926.5 2,715.9 1,880.0 1,179.7 4,290.9 1D Change (%) (1.5) (0.7) (1.1) (0.4) (0.6) 0.1 (0.7) Buy (%) Sell (%) 48.6 47.8 Source: Refinitiv Eikon Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions 17.5 22.9 Qatari – Total 66.1 70.7 Foreign Individuals 18.7 15.9 Foreign Institutions 15.2 13.4 Foreign – Total 33.9 29.3 Source: Qatar Exchange 1
2. June 13 , 2022 GLOBAL NEWS  Stubbornly hot US inflation is fueling bets that the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive in its bid to cool price pressures, with chances of a jumbo-sized interest rate hike seen rising and the policy rate expected to top 3% by year end. (Source: Reuters)  Apple Inc Chief Executive Tim Cook on Friday sent a letter to a group of US lawmakers asking them to pass federal privacy legislation, according to a copy of the letter seen by Reuters. (Source: Reuters)  The Bank of England looks set to raise interest rates next week for the fifth time since December, its steepest run of rate hikes in 25 years, and is likely to keep going in the coming months as inflation heads for double digits. (Source: Reuters)  A think-tank has estimated that British taxpayers are facing an GBP 11bn (USD 13.7bn) hit after finance minister Rishi Sunak failed to heed its advice on how to manage the public finances against the cost of rising interest rates. (Source: Reuters)  Japan's government and central bank said on Friday they were concerned by recent sharp falls in the yen in a rare joint statement, the strongest warning to date that Tokyo could intervene to support the currency as it plumbs 20-year lows. (Source: Reuters)  An aging nuclear reactor in central Japan's Fukui Prefecture will resume operating in August, about two months earlier than scheduled, with the unit expected to help ease tight electricity supply conditions during the busy summer season, its operator said Friday. (Source: Mainichi)  China's tax watchdog said Friday that the country's tax and fee cuts totaled CNY 244bn (about USD 36.4bn) during the first 4M-22. (Source: China Daily)  Tesla Inc has cancelled three online recruitment events for China scheduled this month, the latest development after Chief Executive Elon Musk threatened job cuts at the electric car maker, saying it was overstaffed in some areas. (Source: Reuters)  FDI in Turkey soared 79% YoY in 2021, a report by UN’ trade and development agency UNCTAD showed, as inflows rebounded around the world to pre-pandemic levels. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS  Middle Eastern airlines witnessed a 265% demand rise in April compared to April 2021, bettering the 252.7% increase in March 2022, against the same month in 2021, according to a new report. (Source: Times of Oman)  FDI inflow into the GCC states jumped by two thirds to hit USD 44bn in 2021 from the previous year, which was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The UAE’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has selected Siemens technology for a nationwide network of ultra-fast EV chargers which will help reduce carbon emissions and boost adoption of EVs by addressing range anxiety. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The 24th Water, Energy, Technology and Environment Exhibition and Dubai Solar Show consolidate Dubai’s position as a global platform and a role model for the latest technologies for water, energy and the environment. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange has recorded the highest increase in trading value among the Arab financial markets in May at 292.64% while the Palestine Exchange topped the list in terms of trade volume increase, according to Arab Monetary Fund. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Telecom Co.’s board proposed to increase the company’s capital by 150% through the issuance of bonus shares. STC plan entails increasing capital from SAR 20bn (USD 5.33bn) to SAR 50bn. (Source: Arab News)  ACWA Power Co. has announced the start of operations for the first phase of water desalination at Abu Dhabi’s Taweelah plant. Known as Al Taweelah IWP, the USD 874mn water desalination plant has the capacity to generate 454,600 cu mt per day of desalinated water, ACWA Power said. (Source: Arab News)  China Railway 18th Bureau Group has secured a CNY 6.5bn (USD 970mn) contract from Saudi-based Rua Al Madinah Holding Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Saudi PIF, for the construction of a 5km long tunnel in Madinah. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Cargo throughput volumes at Saudi ports rose by 23.7% hitting a total of 21.04mn tonnes with general cargo registering a 21.86% increase reaching a total of 810,244 tonnes. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Around 16,000 sheep aboard an overloaded ship bound for Saudi Arabia have downed off Sudan’s Red Sea coast, Bloomberg reported quoting the Sudanese Exporters’ Association. (Source: Arab News)  Sheila Al-Rowaily, who worked as a financier with Saudi Aramco, has become the first woman to join the board of directors of Saudi Central Bank. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Real Estate Co.’s rights issue saw 94% subscription, generating SAR 1.5bn (USD 400mn). Better known as Al Akaria, the developer offered 135mn shares, out of which 127mn shares were subscribed. (Source: Arab News)  USD 60bn amount the MENA region could have saved if it had not wasted its food, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. (Source: Arab News)  Oman Air has been awarded the 2022 Passenger Choice Award for Best Seat Comfort in the Middle East by the Airline Passenger Experience Association. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The total bank credit extended by commercial banks in the Sultanate of Oman during the Q1-22 amounted to OMR 23.10bn, compared to OMR 22.68bn during the same period in 2021, an increase of 1.4%. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s FDI inflows increased by USD 1.766bn in 2021, marking a 73% YoY increase and surpassing the global FDI average growth, according to the 2022 World Investment Report issued by the UNCTAD. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain Tourism and Exhibitions Authority has announced plans to lease out two of the five plots within its Bahrain Bay Beach development, one of the authority's key projects in terms of developing the kingdom's tourism infrastructure. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Kuwait Oil Tankers Company is looking for workers from Pakistan, Poland, Bulgaria and Croatia to support its operations. These workers will be recruited through more than one specialized contract in this regard, reports Al-Anba daily. (Source: Arab Times) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s economy is expected to witness growth this year and is forecast to be the fastest growing in the GCC in 2023 and 2024. The real GDP is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2022, followed by 4.5% and 4.4% respectively in 2023 and 2024, according to the latest report of the World Bank. (Source: The Peninsula)  QNB Group has signed a cooperation agreement with Qatar Railways Company, which will enable the bank to promote its brand on Doha Metro’s trains and in three metro network stations. (Source: The Peninsula)  QatarEnergy announced that it has selected TotalEnergies as its first international partner in the North Field East expansion project, the single largest property in the history of the LNG industry. (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. June 13 , 2022 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0545 USD/QAR 3.6400 134.4200 EUR/QAR 3.8384 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2344 JPY/QAR 0.0271 USD/CHF 0.9871 GBP/QAR 4.4932 USD/CAD 1.2781 CHF/QAR 3.6876 AUD/USD 0.7051 CAD/QAR 2.8480 NZD/USD 0.6370 AUD/QAR 2.5666 USD/INR 77.6156 INR/QAR 0.0469 USD/TRY 17.0718 TRY/QAR 0.2132 USD/ZAR 15.8305 ZAR/QAR 0.2299 USD/BRL 4.9865 BRL/QAR 0.7300 FX Commentary The USD climbed to a near four-week high against a basket of currencies on Friday, after data showed US consumer prices accelerated in May, strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve may have to continue with interest rate hikes through September to combat inflation. The US Dollar index rose 0.9% at 104.15. The EUR/USD slipped 0.9% to 1.0515. The GBP/USD traded down 1.4% to 1.2314. The USD/JPY traded up 0.7% at 134.42. The BOJ has been one of the few central banks not to take action on rising prices. The USD/CNY went up 0.3% at 6.7081. The USD/CAD traded 0.7% higher at 1.2781 as investors weighed economic data that could support additional aggressive interest rate hikes by the BoC and the Federal Reserve. The AUD/USD went down 0.7% at 0.7051. The NZD/USD traded down 0.73% at 0.6370. Source: Refinitiv Eikon INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight 1 Week 0.82 0.08 1.28 1.74 3.01 (0.65) (0.57) (0.54) (0.30) 0.68 QAIBOR 0.70 0.75 1.00 1.15 1.85 SAIBOR 1.57 1.63 1.93 3.08 3.52 EIBOR 0.88 0.92 1.25 1.37 2.63 BMIBOR 1.60 1.78 2.53 2.81 3.76 KIBOR 0.81 1.31 1.69 2.00 2.56 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Refinitiv Eikon 3.43% 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.33% 2.0% 4.57% 3.74% 3.58% 3.35% 3.09% 3.17% 3.33% 3.19% 3.22% 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.28% 3.23% 3.20% 1.42% 1.12% 0.81% 2.94% 1.82% 3 Yrs Qatar 5 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year Source: Refinitiv Eikon 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 16.1 2.5 Turkey 795.6 UK 11.0 0.3 Brazil 246.4 27.0 Germany 11.0 1.9 Egypt 796.1 317.2 60.1 15.5 France 0.22% 2 Yrs Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields Source: Refinitiv Eikon, Investing.com US Swap Rates 4.0% SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Abu Dhabi 278.6 21.5 1.5 Italy 139.4 52.7 Bahrain 297.7 2.1 Greece 172.1 54.1 Dubai 119.9 27.7 Russia 12,840.2 12,734.3 Qatar 61.6 16.9 Japan 20.1 0.4 Saudi Arabia 62.1 9.5 Source: Refinitiv Eikon, worldgovernmentbonds.com ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:15 UK Claimant Count Unem Chng May NA -56.9k 07:15 Germany HICP Final YoY May 8.7% 8.7% 07:15 UK ILO Unemployment Rate Apr 3.6% 3.7% 07:15 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun -27.5 -34.3 07:15 Germany ZEW Current Conditions Jun -31.0 -36.5 07:15 Germany CPI Final MoM May NA 0.9% 07:15 Germany CPI Final YoY May 7.9% 7.9% 07:15 Germany HICP Final MoM May 1.1% 1.1% 07:15 UK Employment Change Apr 103k 83k 07:15 UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YoY Apr 7.6% 7.0% 07:15 UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) Apr 4.0% 4.2% 07:15 Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Apr 1.6% 2.5% 07:15 US PPI Final Demand YoY May 10.9% 11.0% 07:15 US PPI Final Demand MoM May 0.8% 0.5% 07:15 US PPI exFood/Energy YoY May 8.6% 8.8% Source: Refinitiv Eikon 3
4. QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 12th June 2022) Company QNB Qatar Islamic Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Doha Bank Ahli Bank Intl. Islamic Bank Rayan Qatar First Bank (QFC) National Leasing Dlala Qatar Oman Inma Banks & Financial Services Zad Holding Company Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Medicare Cinema Qatar Fuel Widam Mannai Corp. Al Meera Baladna Consumer Goods & Services Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industries Qatar The Investors Electricity & Water Aamal Gulf International Mesaieed Investment Holding QAMCO Industrials Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance General Insurance Alkhaleej Takaful Islamic Insurance QLM Insurance United Dev. Company Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Qatar Navigation Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.76 2.56 2.24 2.77 3.43 3.28 3.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 0.79 2.80 3.48 0.00 0.00 3.49 1.64 4.21 0.00 3.21 4.94 2.98 3.86 3.24 5.79 5.61 0.00 4.34 4.54 0.00 4.00 0.00 3.89 4.73 4.09 5.58 0.00 1.95 4.55 3.85 3.62 3.72 5.00 0.00 0.00 3.63 3.81 3.73 3.79 3.39 2.03 3.08 3.14 2.73 P/B Ratio (x) 1.90 2.19 1.22 0.60 1.42 2.08 1.41 1.66 0.69 1.32 0.91 2.40 1.68 3.02 7.16 0.70 2.03 1.62 2.05 2.11 1.96 2.52 1.49 1.94 1.01 1.15 2.98 2.09 1.58 0.91 1.30 2.14 2.09 1.86 2.07 0.76 0.90 0.34 1.84 2.93 3.70 0.77 0.48 0.67 1.04 1.06 0.62 1.08 1.53 1.26 0.65 1.39 2.31 1.21 2.17 P/E Ratio (x) 14.69 15.35 13.50 11.59 15.34 19.06 21.41 7.55 0.00 12.58 103.25 31.83 15.51 25.60 192.69 20.76 27.05 86.55 18.27 0.00 16.63 19.14 25.26 20.32 11.65 14.63 11.56 67.50 13.67 22.33 30.14 17.96 67.50 12.07 13.20 14.25 12.98 16.64 25.29 14.95 18.52 15.15 14.57 11.81 515.75 0.00 14.86 49.18 18.43 33.61 12.77 12.62 15.27 14.05 18.77 June 13, 2022 EPS (QR) 1.32 1.42 0.50 0.23 0.27 0.59 0.22 0.20 -0.04 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.72 0.69 0.01 0.05 0.28 0.03 0.98 -0.37 0.61 0.98 0.07 0.34 0.29 0.34 1.34 0.03 1.33 0.05 0.03 0.15 0.03 0.15 0.36 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.16 0.57 0.30 0.20 0.09 0.29 0.00 -0.21 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.19 0.64 0.38 0.24 0.32 0.31 BV/Share (QR) 10.71 10.47 5.95 4.60 2.89 5.75 3.20 0.72 1.35 1.74 0.93 2.57 4.93 5.56 0.28 1.36 3.66 2.24 9.09 1.54 4.81 7.75 1.19 3.50 3.57 4.67 6.53 1.03 10.74 1.25 1.75 1.36 1.03 1.14 2.58 3.40 2.38 5.86 2.07 2.83 1.77 3.02 3.11 5.36 1.22 0.85 1.86 6.63 1.09 3.47 12.96 3.53 1.58 3.52 2.71 Stock Price (QR) 19.90 22.50 7.14 2.71 4.16 11.45 4.71 1.40 0.93 1.66 0.83 6.31 17.80 2.06 0.96 7.16 3.65 18.07 3.05 9.35 18.21 1.78 3.70 5.18 17.83 2.18 18.45 1.10 2.32 2.75 2.18 2.06 2.45 2.15 2.00 3.84 8.80 5.72 1.48 3.50 1.31 0.91 7.87 1.61 8.85 4.92 3.90 Company QNB ‫الم ف‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اﻻه‬ ‫الدو‬ ‫ال ان‬ QFC ‫اﻷول‬ ‫اﻻجارة‬ ‫دﻻلة‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫إنماء‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المال ة‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫الطب ة‬ ‫السﻼم‬ ‫لدنا‬ ‫الرعا ة‬ ‫الس نما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫مجمع المنا‬ ‫الم ة‬ ‫الخدمات والسلع اﻻستهﻼ ة‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫التح ل ة‬ ‫اﻻسمنت‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫المس ثم ن‬ ‫كه اء وماء‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدول ة‬ ‫مس ع د‬ ‫اس ثمار القا ضة‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫كيو إل إم‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫الخليج الت اف‬ ‫اﻻسﻼم ة‬ ‫التأم‬ ‫المتحدة للتنم ة‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القا ضة‬ ‫مزا ا‬ ‫العقارات‬ Ooredoo ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫اﻻتصاﻻت‬ ‫المﻼحة‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقﻼت‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Refinitiv Eikon; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4