GCC Daily Market Update - 12 July

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 12 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,425.5 21,409.1 5,709.8 7,329.8 12,437.0 5,140.6 103,182.6 20,195.5 25,877.6 3,203.0 31,747.1 (1.9) 0.6 15.6 (40.3) (8.9) (25.0) 2,085.4 114.5 377.6 (9.6) 31.5 (0.1) 0.0 0.3 (0.6) (0.1) (0.5) 2.1 0.6 1.5 (0.3) 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.9 0.4 2.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 2.7 8.3 8.3 17.4 2.6 8.3 5.7 32.1 5.7 17.6 3.2 19.2 9,030.2 7,245.4 4,408.7 3,439.9 6,778.6 5,171.2 1,311.8 1,587.3 3,264.9 35.0 8.5 10.7 21.9 30.1 12.4 3.6 8.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 (0.0) (2.4) (0.4) 1.4 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.7 (0.1) (13.5) 0.5 (3.0) (2.6) 17.9 (10.6) 7.5 1.8 12.5 47.5 45.0 3.0 1,214.7 266.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.4 4.0 0.1 1.0 0.6 (0.5) 0.1 (2.2) (1.2) (15.1) (14.7) (18.4) 5.5 6.5 Source: Bloomberg Global Politics dominated US markets yesterday. Most US indices opened lower, amidst renewed reports on Russian interference in US presidential elections last year. However, markets turned positive and ended mostly higher, after the Senate delayed its summer break plan, to provide additional time to work on key legislative matters. Continued momentum in Tech stocks helped the Nasdaq outperform its peer indices. The broad based Stoxx Europe 600 closed 0.7% lower as losses in Consumer Staples and Real Estate outweighed strength in Autos and Miners. Banking stocks also benefitted ahead of the meet by EU finance ministers, who would discuss ways to tackle NPA’s in the system. Asian markets traded mostly higher, with Japan’s index up 0.6%, aided by weakness in the JPY in the Asian session. GCC Gulf indices closed higher yesterday, aided by gains in Banking sector over an expected hawkish testimony by the US Fed Chair, due today. Gains in oil prices lent further support to the regional market. In Saudi Arabia, United Electronics continued with its upward trajectory, after its CEO announced plans to increase its revenue through online sales, and spoke of plans to strengthen partnerships with suppliers. The stock had crossed 10% limit on Monday over strong Q2-17 results. Kuwaiti markets traded 0.5% higher, helped by gains in Insurance and Health Care sectors. Qatar Qatari markets traded 0.4% higher, in line with gains in its regional peers. Foreign institutional investors provided majority of the buying support, while selling pressure from Gulf institutional investors declined significantly Buying activity was majorly concentrated in Consumer stocks, with Banking stocks benefitting from anticipated hawkish tone by US Fed chair. Trade turnover and volumes declined, with Telecom and Banking sectors together accounting for more than 65% of the total volumes.. Out of 39 stocks traded, 24 advanced, 11 declined and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.2 1.3 4.2 45.4 DSM 20 14.9 1.5 3.8 38.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.7 3.1 797.3 UAE (ADX) 16.0 1.3 4.7 16.8 UAE (DFM) 15.7 1.3 4.1 53.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.2 5.4 52.1 Oman (MSM) 11.9 1.1 5.6 5.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.1 0.8 6.0 1.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar & Oman Invest Widam Food Co Qatar Industrial Manu Qatar Fuel Barwa Real Estate Co Top Losers Qatar Insurance Co Islamic Holding Group United Development Dlala Holding Al Khalij Com. Bank Close Price 8.3 56.9 42.3 110.2 32.9 0.2 1.2 0.7 1.6 0.4 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 (16.6) (16.3) (5.1) (17.4) (1.2) (24.5) (9.7) (0.6) (22.0) (1.6) 68.7 23.4 32.4 NA 0.4 10.1 40.1 13.4 105.3 8.9 67.2 50.9 17.0 18.9 13.2 (0.9) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (1.3) (1.0) (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (8.9) (16.6) (17.8) (12.2) (22.4) 3.2 (25.7) (11.5) (27.0) (21.2) 180.3 1.3 302.6 20.7 8.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 18.1 55.2 10.1 39.5 11.0 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 16/Apr 30.0 20.0 9,030.2 10.0 0.0 30/Apr 14/May 28/May Index Volume (mn) 11/Jun 25/Jun 9/Jul Index Value Closing Level 2,732.9 5,367.1 2,772.3 3,974.6 1,976.4 1,101.7 2,082.0 1D Change (%) 0.7 0.8 0.5 (1.1) 0.7 (0.1) 0.2 Buy (%) 39.9 19.9 59.8 9.9 30.3 40.2 Sell (%) 49.1 21.6 70.7 12.5 16.8 29.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 12 , 2017 (USD 65.3mn) from Saudi Aramco for the supply of steel pipes. The production will start in the Q4-17. (Source: Mubasher) GLOBAL NEWS  US wholesale inventories climbed 0.4% MoM in June-17 led by auto inventories which climbed by 0.7% over the month. (Source: Reuters)    UK retail sales grew 1.2% YoY in June-17 on a like-for-like basis driven by consumer spending on summer clothing and beauty products. Total sales rose 2.0% YoY during the month. (Source: Market Insider) Saudi Arabia based Herfy Food Services Co announced the distribution of 10.0% dividend, equivalent to SAR 1.0 per share for the H1-17. The company will distribute a total of SAR 64.7mn. (Source: Mubasher)  Japan’s M2 money stock climbed 3.9% YoY in June-17 to JPY 976.6tn. The M3 money stock was up 3.3% from the downwardly revised 3.2% increase in the April-17. The L money stock was up 3.1% YoY in June17 to JPY 1,695.3tn. (Source: Morningstar) Bahrain Defense Force (BDF) will buy USD 22.45bn worth of Sniper Advanced Targeting Pods (ATP) for its F-16 fleet from Lockheed Martin. Deliveries are expected to begin in early 2018. (Source: Trade  Oman based Alizz Islamic Bank said that it has withdrawn from a possible merger with United Finance Company (UFC). (Source: Mubasher) Arabia)  China's total vehicle sales rose 4.5% YoY in June-17 to 2.2mn units while sales for the H1-17 grew 3.8% YoY in June-17 to 13.4mn vehicles. The rise in sales was led by hefty discounts. (Source: Reuters)  Oman Cables Industry (OCAI) net profit fell 51.0% YoY in Q2-17 to OMR 2.3mn (USD 6.0mn) due to increase of competitive pressure on prices and sales, as well as a surge in costs. (Source: Mubasher)  Turkey's retail sales rose 0.3% MoM in May-17 supported by a 3.2% rise in automotive fuel sales. Food sales fell 1.0% and non-food sales fell 0.4%. On a year on year basis, Retail sales grew by 1.2% YoY.  The National Bank of Kuwait’s net profit rose 10.7% YoY in Q2-17 to KWD 79.3mn, mainly due to a rise in net interest income and revenues from Islamic finance. (Source: Mubasher) (Source:Mt5) GCC NEWS   UAE government has decided to exempt residential property and undeveloped land, along with some financial services and local transport from the 5.0% value-added tax (VAT) which is to be introduced from 1st January-18. Supplies (including sales or leases) of commercial properties will however be taxable at the standard VAT rate. (Source: Trade Arabia) According to Real Estate consultancy Cluttons, Dubai's efforts for economic diversification has accelerated business activity in a number of innovative industries and has spurred a new stream of demand for industrial space. H1-17 witnessed increased demand from technology companies like 'Noon.com' and Amazon.com. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar has been ranked 3rd in UN’s Co-ordination of Humanitarian affairs list of major donor countries for 2017. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and Oman signed a MoU, during the visit of Qatar Tourism Authority’s Chief, to boost Qatar’s tourism relations with Oman. (Source: Travelwire news)  Qatari real estate transactions were worth QAR 530.7mn for the period from 4th July-17 to 6th July-17. The types of real estate traded ranged from plots of land, houses to residential compounds and multipurpose buildings. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The Ministry of Transport and Communications (MoTC) and General Authority of Customs (GAC) have signed a MoU to further develop customs clearance services in Qatar. Under the MoU, the two will collaborate to execute the second phase of the customs clearance single-window system and support the deployment and implementation of its first phase. (Source: Gulf Times)  According to Real Estate consultancy firm CBRE, Dubai’s residential market sales price fell modestly to 1.0% QoQ during Q2-17. The report further stated that deflationary pressures are excpected to continue amidst a period of elevated supply deliveries. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai Holding unveiled plans to build Dubai Food Park project worth AED 5.5bn at Dubai Wholesale City. It is expected to increase Dubai’s competitiveness as leading regional hub in the food sector and food stuffs re-exports. (Source: Arabian Business) The North Oil Company (NOC), a joint venture between Qatar Petroleum (QP) and France's Total, will receive an investments of USD 3.5bn over the next five years in Al Shaheen oilfield, whose production will be limited to 300,000 barrels per day. (Source: Gulf Times)   Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) introduced the web application named ‘Shams Dubai Calculator’ to help customers decide on installation of photovoltaic (PV) panels on their rooftops. It will measure the usable area, number of panels and total capacity on a monthly or annual basis. (Source: Trade Arabia) Moody's affirmed the A2 long-term issuer rating of Ooredoo with a stable outlook showing its robust standalone credit profile with around 70.0% of EBITDA generated outside of Qatar in 2016. Oredoo’s credit profile will continue to benefit from the support and rating uplift offered by the Government of Qatar which owns 68.6% of the company through direct and indirect holdings. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Dubai based Marsol International has inked an agreement for 2 years with Oman Oil Company Exploration and Production for provision and management of the marine and offshore activities related to the tanker loading, the company’s director said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) has received increasing American and British funds, since diplomatic crisis, and consequentially the average daily trading value has increased from QAR 250.0mn to QAR 450.0mn per day, said QSE chief executive. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based NBD signed its subsidiary, Emirates NBD Securities as its first General Clearing Member. Emirates NBD securities would provide clearing and settlement services to trading participants of the UAE’s equity markets. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Mannai Corporation said that it has acquired a 17.0% stake, including voting rights, in Gfi Informatique from Boussard & Gavaudan, raising its stake to 81.0%. The purchase was carried out through an off-market transaction and included 11.2mn shares at EUR 8.0 per share. (Source:  Saudi Aramco has got an approval from the government to set up two new companies on an area of 50.0 sq. km. land on oil producing area to develop and operate a new energy industrial city in the kingdom. Mubasher)  (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Egypt based Qarar announced a strategic initiative with Saudi Arabia based Al Yusr Leasing & Financing, wherein Qarar will utilize Al Yusr’s analytics and credit decision capabilities across the customer lifecycle, from application to customer management. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Steel Pipe Company received a contract worth SAR 245.0mn Mannai Corporation has been listed among the top 100 companies in the Arab world in 2017, according to the survey by Forbes Middle East.  QNB Group reported a 7.0% YoY rise in its H1-17 net profit to QAR 6.7bn, as new customer’s deposits rose 15.0% YoY to QAR 562.0bn. Loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 98.3%. Total assets expanded 11.0% YoY to QAR 768.0bn, driven by an 11.0% YoY increase in loans and advances to QAR 552.0bn. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 12 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1497 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.9400 EUR/QAR 4.1866 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2878 JPY/QAR 0.0320 USD/CHF 0.9637 GBP/QAR 4.6895 USD/CAD 1.2915 CHF/QAR 3.7787 AUD/USD 0.7638 CAD/QAR 2.8196 NZD/USD 0.7225 AUD/QAR 2.7814 USD/INR 64.0925 INR/QAR 0.0568 USD/TRY 3.6131 TRY/QAR 1.0079 USD/ZAR 13.5611 ZAR/QAR 0.2685 USD/BRL 3.2545 BRL/QAR 1.1189 FX Commentary The USD traded lower against its key peers, with the dollar index ending 0.3% lower. The USD lost ground after Donald Trump, Jr. revealed emails suggesting that the Russian officials’ intervened in the US Presidential election campaigns. The losses in the USD were, however, capped after the US Fed Governor Lael Brainard supported the central bank’s view to reduce its mighty balance sheet, though at a gradual pace. The GBP traded lower against the USD, after one of the Bank of England’s key policy maker, refrained from commenting about the central bank’s action on increasing interest rates. The JPY traded higher against the USD, reversing its direction, amid broad based weakness in the greenback. The CAD eased against the USD. However, the losses were limited, on the back of gains in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.17 1.19 1.22 1.30 1.75 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) 1.87 2.05 2.27 2.45 2.93 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.96 1.09 1.30 1.55 2.17 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.50 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.32% 1.37% 3.14% 3.34% 3.54% 1.91% 2.17% 2.35% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.56% 2.92% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.3 (2.4) Turkey 203.4 (88.6) UK 22.1 (11.0) Brazil 237.8 (20.2) Germany 16.9 (6.9) Egypt 423.3 (8.1) France 23.7 (20.3) Abu Dhabi Italy 150.4 (11.6) Greece 613.6 Russia 173.2 Japan 28.0 2.0% 1.62% 1.97% 2.58% 1.80% 1.0% 0.0% 2.31% 2.14% 0.86% 2 Yrs 1.39% 1.21% 1.07% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 62.3 0.1 Bahrain 253.9 (23.1) (12.2) Dubai 134.9 (11.0) (60.8) Qatar 113.5 (4.3) (4.0) Saudi Arabia 109.1 20.8 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:30 UK Claimant Count Rate 11:30 UK Jobless Claims Change 11:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16:00 Russia Trade Balance 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Period Survey Prior Jun - 2.30% Jun - 7.3k May 4.60% 4.60% Jul-07th - 1.40% May 8.8b 8.0b Jul-12th 0.75% 0.50% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) 11,632.5 (23.9) 10.1 3,449.9 2.0 7.7 Voltamp Energy Saog 10.6 (1.0) 9.5 0.9 (13.6) 18.1 Smn Power Holding Saog 27.4 19.4 59.4 2.9 16.8 NM (90.6) Qatar National Bank Ubar Hotels & Resorts QoQ (%) 1.1 12.8 (30.3) 0.0 NM 269.5 13.1 7.0 79.3 10.7 (7.1) 57.2 (8.4) (16.0) 2.5 (48.2) (24.7) Al Sharqiya Invest Holding NA NA NA 0.1 29.7 (61.6) Boubyan Bank K.S.C NA NA NA 11.2 14.3 5.2 National Bank Of Kuwait Oman Cables Industry Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 12 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 6th July 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 2.0 5.7 5.0 3.7 0.0 5.4 7.4 2.6 6.2 3.6 5.5 3.8 6.8 3.5 6.0 0.0 8.9 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.5 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.0 2.3 7.3 5.6 4.3 3.8 4.5 1.9 4.8 5.6 2.5 7.9 4.1 0.0 7.3 5.3 3.8 0.0 3.1 3.6 5.5 4.8 5.0 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.9 2.1 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 3.8 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.2 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.6 2.3 0.4 3.0 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.1 39.8 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.3 55.7 11.0 14.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 10.2 8.9 22.9 10.4 6.6 32.3 13.9 47.5 13.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 10.5 5.9 11.4 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 17.9 16.6 13.5 19.0 9.8 9.7 16.4 31.4 8.7 18.5 13.0 14.6 17.1 8.6 14.7 22.6 10.1 12.1 15.5 (M) (‫))س‬ 22.3 12.6 11.2 14.2 12.4 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.6 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 34.9 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 5.5 22.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 27.0 Stock Price (QR) 32.0 29.9 19.0 30.0 51.0 13.2 39.7 13.6 7.6 88.2 54.0 123.0 8.1 72.2 79.0 132.5 29.0 107.4 7.7 9.0 55.0 74.0 11.0 21.2 94.0 13.2 189.3 43.8 41.0 64.9 16.0 13.4 67.7 31.0 62.4 31.8 12.1 10.3 17.0 92.0 8.1 45.0 18.3 73.7 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4