GCC Daily Market Update - 11 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 11 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,461.4 (3.7) 21,797.8 13.0 5,913.4 (50.9) 7,377.6 (19.4) 12,304.0 7.4 5,113.5 (1.1) 108,451.7 (1,291.3) 19,274.8 (121.7) 27,668.5 145.6 3,365.2 (0.3) 31,687.5 24.8 (0.2) 0.1 (0.9) (0.3) 0.1 (0.0) (1.2) (0.6) 0.5 (0.0) 0.1 (0.4) (0.7) (1.3) (0.7) 2.1 0.5 (1.4) (1.9) (1.1) 0.1 (0.1) 9.9 10.3 21.6 3.3 7.2 5.2 38.8 0.8 25.8 8.4 19.0 8,666.6 7,378.0 4,445.7 3,647.6 6,926.3 5,056.6 1,316.8 1,668.9 3,400.9 (8.9) 17.3 (8.0) 3.2 28.9 9.5 1.2 (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 (1.5) 1.6 (0.5) 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.1 (0.1) 0.7 (17.0) 2.3 (2.2) 3.3 20.5 (12.6) 7.9 6.2 17.1 53.8 47.5 2.9 1,347.3 302.2 (0.7) (1.6) (0.1) 0.8 (10.2) (1.3) (3.3) (3.1) 0.1 (3.3) 3.1 1.3 (3.7) 2.2 (1.6) (5.0) (10.9) (21.4) 17.0 21.0 Global US markets closed mostly lower on Friday, as investors remained cautious about the possible effects of hurricane Irma which was expected to hit the eastern coast of the nation and a likely missile test from North Korea. The S&P 500 index was weighed by negative performance in Energy and Consumer Staples index. Insurance shares reversed their directions to trade higher, despite fears of hurricane Irma. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed 0.2% higher, however, the strength the EUR limited the gains. The UK benchmark inched lower, weighed by losses in Mining shares, as metal prices lost ground following the release of dismal Chinese data. In Japan, the Nikkei index dropped 0.6%, amid strength in the JPY and weakness in Insurance shares. GCC Most GCC markets closed higher yesterday. In Saudi Arabia, Petrochemical and Banking shares led the broad market advances. The DFM index closed 0.1% higher. Drake & Scull climbed 1.1%, following reports that the company’s Chairman has resigned from his position and the election of his predecessor might revive the prospects of the company. Kuwaiti benchmark rose 0.4%, outperforming its peer indices, led by gains in Healthcare and Technology shares. Bucking the trend, Abu Dhabi benchmark dropped 0.2% on account of increased selling pressure in Investment & Financial Services and Consumer shares. Qatar QE index continued to decline for the fifth consecutive session, reaching an 18-month low level. Foreign and Gulf institutional investors were among the net sellers during yesterday’s trading session. Trading value declined, amidst higher volumes with Telecom, Industrials and Banking sectors together accounting for more than 89.0% of the total volumes. Out of 45 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 14 declined, 23 advanced and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.4 1.3 4.4 26.7 DSM 20 15.0 1.5 4.0 21.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.0 1.7 3.2 709.9 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.6 30.8 UAE (DFM) 24.2 1.4 3.9 47.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.2 5.3 87.6 Oman (MSM) 11.7 1.1 5.2 2.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 0.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mannai Corporation Dlala Holding Ezdan Holding Group Mazaya Qatar QGRI Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Aamal Co Qatar Intl. Islamic Widam Food Co Al Khalij Comm. Bank Close Price 70.9 17.2 11.3 9.9 36.0 5.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 8.9 3.1 1.6 1.5 1.1 (11.4) (20.0) (25.5) (27.8) (23.4) (13.8) (24.4) (36.8) (25.8) (21.7) 0.0 138.9 78.0 53.9 0.1 6.7 29.2 14.5 42.4 18.2 55.0 9.9 54.5 63.0 12.0 (1.5) (0.1) (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) (2.6) (1.4) (0.9) (0.8) (0.7) 8.7 (27.7) (13.2) (7.4) (29.4) (3.5) (36.0) (15.5) (3.8) (33.3) 36.6 17.8 12.4 4.1 0.5 12.9 13.9 10.2 NA 10.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,000 30.0 9,500 20.0 8,666.6 9,000 10.0 8,500 8,000 14/Jun 0.0 28/Jun 12/Jul 26/Jul Index Volume (mn) 9/Aug 23/Aug 6/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,679.6 5,150.2 2,613.7 3,920.7 1,846.2 1,064.6 1,887.5 1D Change (%) (0.1) 1.5 0.1 0.1 1.1 (0.4) 0.1 Buy (%) 57.0 28.3 85.3 9.6 5.1 14.7 Sell (%) 52.7 29.7 82.4 6.2 11.4 17.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 11 , 2017 among groups showing initial interest in buying it according to sources familiar with the developments. (Source: Gulf News) GLOBAL NEWS  US wholesale inventories rose 0.6% MoM in July-17. Inventories of non-durable goods increased by 0.2% MoM as a growth in inventories of petroleum and farm products was offset by a decline in inventories of drugs. (Source: Nasdaq)   Canada’s unemployment rate declined by 0.1% percentage points to 6.2% in August-17 over the month. An increase of 110,000 in number of people working part time was offset by 88,000 decline in the number of people working full-time. (Source: Statcan)  First Abu Dhabi Bank has been named ‘Most Innovative Investment Bank’ for the Mena region, at The Banker’s prestigious 2017 Investment Banking Awards. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Germany’s labour cost index grew by 2.3% YoY in Q2-17 driven by increase in costs of gross earnings by 2.9%. Non-wage costs posted a rise of 0.3% YoY. (Source: Market Insider) According to Jeddah Municipality, the 4th and 5th stages of the development of the Jeddah waterfront will be launched by the municipality next month, with the development area of more than 700,000 sq.m. (Source: Zawya)  UK industrial production grew by 0.2% MoM in July-17 driven by increase in manufacturing output which was led by increase in car production by 0.5% MoM. The mining and quarrying output declined by 1.2% MoM led by decline in oil and gas extraction by 1.4%. (Source:  Bahrain based GFH Properties has joined leading property show Bipex as the strategic partner for the 2017 edition to be held in Manama from 26th October-17 to 28th October-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Al Bilad Real Estate Investment Company has announced the completion of ‘Phase One’ of its Water Garden City project, which includes 22 restaurants, each consisting of three floors. The phase also includes 14 residential Sky Garden villas, overlooking the marina. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman's Ministry of Oil & Gas is tendering four onshore hydrocarbon blocks as part of the Licensing Round 2017. The bidding will formally commence on 20th September-17 20 and the deadline for submission of bids for all four blocks is 31st December-17. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Trade Arabia) Market Insider)    The UK economic growth continues to remain below trend amid the Brexit-related uncertainty, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said in its latest monthly GDP estimate. NIESR has forecast 0.4% QoQ growth in Q3-17. The institute expects a growth of 1.7% for 2017 and 1.9% for 2018. (Source: Market Insider) Japan’s core machine orders increased by 8.0% MoM to JPY 853.3bn but it declined by 7.5% YoY. Total values of machine orders, which includes volatile ones for ships and electric power companies, rose by 4.9% MoM and 10.2% YoY to JPY 2,382.2bn. (Source: Market Insider) Turkish Prime Minister said USD 300.0bn of investments will be made in the country in the next 10 years of which USD 100.0bn will be made in Transport sector, USD 100.0bn in the Health technology sector and USD 100.0bn in Information, communication and virtual reality sectors. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  The total value of 21,893 active construction projects in the GCC reached USD 2.4tn of which, urban construction projects were valued at USD 1.8tn at the beginning of September-17 according to BNC Construction Intelligence. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  According to IMF forecasts, lower imports and oil price recovery will allow Qatar’s current account to swing from a deficit of 7.7% of GDP to a surplus of 3.9% in 2017. IMF recently allayed fears of shortages as well as concerns about the state’s ability to implement big infrastructure projects. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s producer price index (PPI) increased by 11.1% YoY but declined by 1.5% MoM in July-17, driven by increase in PPI for mining which grew by 14.5% YoY due to increase in the price of crude petroleum and natural gas, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s industrial real estate market is growing at an aggressive rate as the government is increasingly leveraging its subsidies to SME’s and start-ups. Doha Industrial area that includes light and medium industries is expected to expand to about 13.0mn sq.m of gross leasable area, according to Valustrat report. (Source: The Peninsula)  Bank of America Merrill Lynch has kept its recommendation for Qatar’s external debt to ‘Marketweight’ as the country maintains a strong balance sheet and the fiscal/external break-even oil prices are lower than GCC peers. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Central Bank (QCB) is planning to expand the activities of The Qatar Credit Bureau by adding more members and services like the credit score models exclusively for commercial and SME customers. QCB is also collecting data from commercial credit side for developing new products, finding trustable resources and high quality data. (Source: The number of IPOs in GCC grew from 3 in H1-16 to 13 in H1-17, with a combined value of USD 571mn, according to BMI research. The first quarter of the year was responsible for the larger share of the deals, with 10 taking place, having a combined worth of USD 400.0mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Nearly 300 local and international exhibitors are set to showcase their flagship projects at the world's premier real estate exhibition, Cityscape Global, which starts today in Dubai and is expected to host 40,000 participants. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based developer, Schon Properties, , has sold out i3 - the AED 3.2bn first phase of its mega hospitality project, iSuites at Dubai Investment Park, close to Dubai South, and the Dubai Expo site. (Source: Trade Arabia)    Dubai based, Saudi German Hospital obtained an AED 370.0mn Islamic syndicated loan which will be used for the operation and expansion of the hospital. (Source: Zawya) The number of constructed buildings in Abu Dhabi grew 21.6% YoY in Q2-17, reaching 913. The residential buildings constituted 85.5% of the total completed buildings, while 38 public facilities and 37 industrial buildings were built during the period (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi Investment Council is weighing the sale of approximately 24.0% stake in Abu Dhabi National Insurance Co (Adnic), with Allianz Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties said it has completed the work on Repton School project and has handed the asset over to the operator EKI ahead of the commencement of the 2017/18 academic year. The Peninsula)  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce (MEC) announced that the Qatar Pavilion at Astana Expo 2017 won the first place and Gold Award among more than 100 pavilions of different participating countries. (Source: Gulf Times)  Commercial Bank has announced the launch of a new campaign for its current and savings account holders who stand the chance to win 365 cash prizes, including QAR 1mn in a grand prize draw. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 11 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2066 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.8400 EUR/QAR 4.3938 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3230 JPY/QAR 0.0338 USD/CHF 0.9442 GBP/QAR 4.8177 USD/CAD 1.2159 CHF/QAR 3.8567 AUD/USD 0.8060 CAD/QAR 2.9949 NZD/USD 0.7265 AUD/QAR 2.9350 USD/INR 63.2862 INR/QAR 0.0575 USD/TRY 3.4115 TRY/QAR 1.0674 USD/ZAR 12.9291 ZAR/QAR 0.2817 USD/BRL 3.0872 BRL/QAR 1.1795 FX Commentary The USD traded lower against a basket of currencies on Friday, with the dollar index settling 0.4% in red. Fears of another hurricane and persistent geopolitical tensions from the Korean peninsula continued to weigh on the performance of the greenback. The EUR traded higher against the USD, amid heightening expectations the European Central Bank might taper its asset purchases in its next policy meeting in October-17. The safe haven JPY strengthened against the USD, despite lower than expected Japanese GDP growth data. The GBP inched higher, following the release of encouraging British manufacturing and industrial production data. The GBP also found support after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research reported that the UK’s GDP might have grown at a faster pace. The CAD rose, following the release of upbeat Canadian jobs data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.31 1.70 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.17) 1.95 2.05 2.21 2.41 2.92 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 EIBOR 0.96 1.10 1.34 1.55 2.13 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.03 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 KIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 2.77% 2.97% 3.18% 1.67% 1.92% 2.09% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.24% 1.99% 2.0% 1.28% 2.71% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.4 0.5 Turkey 164.3 (73.0) UK 22.1 (0.5) Brazil 183.3 (52.0) Germany 15.2 (5.4) Egypt 357.5 0.4 France 22.8 (41.5) Abu Dhabi 59.3 16.3 Italy 145.3 (45.6) Bahrain 237.4 8.3 Greece 564.3 (530.1) Dubai 125.7 3.3 Russia 140.7 (31.8) Qatar 91.5 (26.3) Japan 34.5 10.2 Saudi Arabia 86.4 (2.0) 2.0% 1.53% 1.0% 1.05% 1.88% 1.75% 1.37% 1.24% 2.05% 1.52% 2.36% 1.86% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:15 UAE Dubai Economy Tracker SA 07:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM 09:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY 09:30 France 11:00 Italy 11:00 11:00 Period Survey Prior Aug -- 56.30 Jul 0.10% 0.00% Aug P -- 28.00% Bank of France Ind. Sentiment Aug 106 105 Industrial Production NSA YoY Jul -- 5.40% Italy Industrial Production WDA YoY Jul 3.70% 5.30% Italy Industrial Production MoM Jul (0.40%) 1.10% 15:15 Canada Housing Starts Aug 216.0k 222.3k 16:00 Russia Trade Balance Jul 6.5b 8.7b 16:00 Russia Exports Jul 27.4b 29.5b 16:00 Russia Imports 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 03:01 Japan Manpower Survey Jul 20.8b 20.8b Sep-08th -- 58.9 4Q -- 24 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 11 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 0.0 0.0 8.3 2.2 6.2 5.4 4.0 0.0 5.1 7.3 2.5 5.9 3.5 5.6 4.4 6.0 4.0 6.3 0.0 9.5 5.6 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.6 0.0 4.5 4.6 4.0 2.3 7.2 5.6 4.5 3.8 4.3 2.0 4.2 6.4 2.6 7.9 4.4 0.0 8.2 5.6 4.0 0.0 3.2 3.4 6.1 5.6 5.5 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.9 1.9 0.7 2.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 3.9 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.7 2.2 0.5 2.5 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.4 67.2 29.6 8.8 65.3 10.2 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 10.2 9.3 24.2 10.6 6.7 28.5 15.2 59.8 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.4 11.2 5.7 12.0 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 17.4 20.6 16.9 13.2 19.9 9.6 10.9 17.5 27.4 8.2 19.3 18.2 12.9 18.1 9.4 14.6 41.8 9.4 12.3 15.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.4 13.3 10.6 17.0 12.8 12.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.1 29.9 17.2 30.2 45.2 12.0 37.2 12.6 6.5 92.6 54.5 128.0 8.5 70.9 68.0 151.1 25.0 102.1 8.0 8.4 63.0 74.0 9.9 17.8 7.5 88.5 13.1 187.0 43.2 42.3 65.5 16.0 14.0 65.0 36.0 55.0 31.8 11.3 9.9 15.3 86.6 8.4 47.4 16.5 63.1 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4