GCC Daily Market Update - 10 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 10 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,697.8 24,542.5 6,893.2 7,662.5 12,943.1 5,534.6 100,780.6 22,408.9 30,536.1 3,159.2 35,319.4 25.9 182.3 77.7 96.8 30.9 12.7 1,416.8 (99.8) 133.3 (2.3) 103.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.2 1.4 (0.4) 0.4 (0.1) 0.3 1.9 1.6 4.4 2.0 2.6 0.3 (3.4) (0.3) (0.9) 2.5 0.5 0.9 (0.7) 7.8 (0.3) 0.2 4.2 (12.6) (1.3) 3.0 (4.3) 4.2 8,824.3 7,878.3 4,486.7 2,889.7 4,814.6 4,676.5 1,271.1 1,635.7 3,684.5 (45.9) (134.3) 7.2 (59.1) 9.4 (14.9) (2.2) (9.6) 23.5 (0.5) (1.7) 0.2 (2.0) 0.2 (0.3) (0.2) (0.6) 0.6 (3.2) (4.0) (3.9) (5.7) 0.3 (1.1) 1.0 (2.9) 1.7 3.5 9.0 2.0 (14.3) NA (8.3) (4.6) 2.7 1.3 77.2 71.1 2.7 1,313.0 304.0 2.4 2.1 0.0 (0.7) (0.1) 3.2 3.0 0.2 (0.1) (0.0) 3.5 4.6 (1.1) (0.5) (0.3) 16.3 18.7 (7.5) 0.3 (7.8) Global Most global equity indices ended higher yesterday, driven by gains in Energy shares, as oil prices climbed after the US President backed out from Iran’s deal, which renewed supply concerns from the Middle East nation. All US equity indices ended higher, with Nasdaq outperforming its peers, driven by gains in Technology shares. The S&P 500 index inched 1.0% higher, driven by gains in Financial, Material and industrial shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.6%, amid encouraging corporate earnings data from the regional companies, while the UK’s benchmark outperformed its broader European peer, on account of rising oil prices. The Nikkei index edged 0.4% lower, driven by profit taking by investors and losses in Drug stocks. The Chinese benchmark, ended 0.1% lower, largely on the back of losses in Financial and Property shares. GCC Most GCC equity indices ended lower yesterday, amid geopolitical tensions about the fallout of the Iran’s nuclear deal. The Saudi Arabian benchmark inched 1.7% lower, as Yemen’s attack on Saudi capital weighed on the market. Samba Financial Group inched 2.8% lower, despite recording a 6.0% YoY gain in its Q1-18 results. The Dubai index inched 2.0% lower, weighed by losses in index heavyweight Emaar Properties. On the other hand, the Abu Dhabi’s benchmark rose by 0.2%, supported by gains in Banking and Insurance shares. Qatar The QE index inched 0.5% lower, weighed by increased selling pressure by domestic institutional and foreign institutional investors. Trade turnover and volumes declined during yesterday’s session, with Banking, Telecom and Industrial sectors together accounting for more than 72.0% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 40 exchanged hands of which 31 declined, 10 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.5 1.3 4.6 41.9 DSM 20 13.1 1.4 5.0 31.7 8,800 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.7 1.7 3.3 1,042.3 8,400 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.3 5.4 35.2 UAE (DFM) 9.7 1.1 6.0 68.7 Kuwait (KSE) 14.1 1.2 3.9 30.4 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.0 5.2 3.6 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.3 0.8 6.4 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Dlala Holding Zad Holding Co Islamic Holding Group Al Ahli Bank Industries Qatar Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Navigation Barwa Real Estate Co Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Close Price 12.4 74.0 27.2 30.5 112.0 1.1 3.5 1.2 0.5 1.1 9.9 4.9 4.7 1.7 1.0 (15.6) 0.5 (27.5) (17.9) 15.5 (50.9) 2.8 (56.1) (6.4) 8.6 785.4 37.8 6.0 9.0 33.0 NA 21.2 9.8 173.8 18.5 10.5 33.7 55.5 33.2 6.6 (0.9) (0.8) (1.3) (0.6) (0.1) (7.9) (2.3) (2.2) (1.9) (1.5) (20.7) (25.5) (0.7) 3.8 (27.0) (46.1) (45.4) (17.7) 1.7 (46.4) 0.4 86.5 6.3 212.5 162.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 40.0 39.6 12.8 7.9 42.8 Qatar DSM Index 9,200 20.0 8,824.3 8,000 11/Feb 10.0 0.0 25/Feb 11/Mar 25/Mar Index Volume (mn) 8/Apr 22/Apr 6/May Index Value Closing Level 3,008.4 5,814.2 3,011.7 2,923.9 1,668.0 1,014.2 1,771.3 1D Change (%) (0.7) (0.3) 0.1 (1.7) (1.4) (0.2) (1.3) Buy (%) 39.5 20.9 60.4 11.9 27.7 39.6 Sell (%) 30.0 26.7 56.7 12.9 30.4 43.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 10 , 2018 delivery of ‘Amad’, a very large crude-oil carrier to bringing the total number of VLCCs in its fleet to 46. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  US producer price index rose 2.6% YoY and 0.1% MoM in April-18, driven by a 0.1% MoM increase in energy prices, while PPI ex food, energy and trade items rose 0.1% MoM. (Source: Bureau of Labour Statitics)  European nations led by UK, France and Germany reiterated that they were committed to the Iran nuclear deal and urged US not to obstruct its implementation after President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the pact. (Source: BBC)  European Central Bank Governing Council member Philip Lane stated that it is too early to say whether the Eurozone is being impacted by a slowdown in global demand or just a decrease in the amount of slack in the European economy. (Source: Reuters)  Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has stated that the country will use higher-than-expected tax revenues to boost investment in digitalization in 2018 and would reduce the tax burden for small and medium incomes workers in 2019. (Source: Reuters)  China’s Commerce Minister has announced that the country won’t change its opposition to protectionism in its ongoing bilateral trade negotiations with the US. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of Japan’s board member has stated that the central bank must find ways to gain public understanding and it is ready to withdraw its huge stimulus program if the economy continues to improve. (Source: Reuters)  Chinese producer price inflation increased by 3.4% YoY in April-18, led by higher commodity prices while the consumer inflation in China rose marginally at 1.8% YoY due to higher food prices. (Source: NBS)  Turkey’s growth forecast for FY-18 was revised from 3.5% to 4.4% by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, slower than FY17 growth, considering the slowing effect of fiscal stimulus and diminishing domestic demand due to credit growth limits. (Source: AA)  Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts which is partly owned by Saudi Arabia based Kingdom holdings has set Fort Lauderdale, Florida as its new iconic global destination and includes 90 Private Residences and 130 guest rooms. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Muriya which is a joint venture between Orascom Development Holdings and Omran (tourism development arm of the Omani Government) has announced that it has sold 70.0% of its stake in Jebel Sifah Heights. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain Duty Free Complex’s net profit increased by 25.8% YoY to USD 7.3mn for Q1-18 while the sales increased 15.3% YoY to USD 22.8mn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Al Sahel Resort is planning to develop a new five-star property on the southwest coast of Bahrain, according to a company official . (Source: Trade Arabia)  The National Oil and Gas Authority of Bahrain has given a contract to Netherlands based Smit Lamnalco to supply marine services to the Bahrain LNG Terminal. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based entertainment company Bahrain Cinema Company has recorded a 161.7% YoY increase in net profit to BHD 4.0mn (USD 10.6mn) for Q1-18, mainly due to the increase in income from investments. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Global petrochemical producer, Equate Group which combines the Kuwait based Equate Petrochemical Company and its subsidiaries and Kuwait Olefins Company, has reported a 41.1% YoY increase in the net profit in the Q1-18 to USD 435.0mn due to cost and growth synergies. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar ranked first among the Arab countries and second in the world after Korea with regards to mobile services and applications due higher usage of messenger and VoIP applications, according to Global System for Mobile communication’s Association. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s real estate transactions in Q1-18 stood at QAR 4.0bn, slightly lower as compared to the same period last year, mostly due to a fall in prices of real estate properties, according to a report by consulting firm ValuStrat. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar’s international reserves are expected to reach USD 16.8bn by 2020 from USD 13.8bn in 2017, as country’s economy is growing at a swift pace, according to FocusEconomics. (Source: Gulf Times)  South Africa is seeking Qatari investments to roll out its gas infrastructure plan for its energy requirements as it plans to increase its gas usage from 3.0% to 23.0%, according to Qatar’s ambassador. GCC NEWS    UAE has the highest fiber-to-the-home penetration globally, with a coverage of 94.3%, a significant amount of which is provided by Abu Dhabi based telecom group Etisalat. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai’s seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index declined by 2.5% MoM to 53.9 in April-18, indicating a slowdown in non-oil private sector growth due to slower improvement in business conditions. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Emirates Airlines has reported a 115.3% YoY increase in net profit to AED 2.8bn (USD 762.0mn) for FY-18, benefitted from the decline of the USD against currencies in most of the company’s key markets. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Al Islami Foods, part has sold a minority stake in the company which was owned by Tribonian Law Advisors and BonelliErede Middle East to Japan based Mitsubishi Corporation for an undisclosed amount. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Binghatti Developers has announced that its work on its prime development Binghatti Stars in Dubai Silicon Oasis is progressing at a steady pace and would be delivered by the end of 2018. (Source: (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s Hamad International Airport has increased security screening capacity and reduced queuing time to provide unified transfer experience for its passengers. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Commercial Bank has received an award from global digital payments company, Visa, for highest e-commerce growth through best-in-class products, innovation and constant customer engagement. (Source: Peninsula Qatar) Swiss based global transportation and logistics company MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company is planning to invest AED 4.0bn (USD 1.1bn) to develop of a new container terminal at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Port. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Shanghai Municipal People’s Government deputy director-general at the Foreign Affairs Office city of Shanghai looks forward to co-operate with Qatar in areas such as culture, investment and trade. (Source: Gulf Moody's Investors Service today has officially started its operations in the Saudi Arabia with the focus on developing debt capital market considering the diversification efforts of the economy. (Source: Trade  Trade Arabia)   Arabia)  Times) Qatar based Sidra Medicine has entered into a partnership with world’s largest brain mapping project Enigma, to study brain health and disease among the Qatari population with the aim of advancing personalized medicine in the country. (Source: Gulf Times) Saudi Arabia based National Shipping Company (Bahri) has taken the 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 10 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1881 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.7400 EUR/QAR 4.3265 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3577 JPY/QAR 0.0332 USD/CHF 1.0050 GBP/QAR 4.9441 USD/CAD 1.2854 CHF/QAR 3.6234 AUD/USD 0.7463 CAD/QAR 2.8330 NZD/USD 0.6987 AUD/QAR 2.7177 USD/INR 66.7750 INR/QAR 0.0545 USD/TRY 4.2880 TRY/QAR 0.8492 USD/ZAR 12.5573 ZAR/QAR 0.2900 USD/BRL 3.5926 BRL/QAR 1.0136 FX Commentary The USD fell against a basket of major currencies yesterday, after reaching its strongest level the previous session, due to mild profit booking by investors, following the cancellation of Iran’s deal. Weakness in the USD was also contributed by dismal US producer price data for April-18. The dollar index inched 0.1% lower to settle at 93.058. The GBP rose against the USD, ahead of the outcome of the Bank of England’s meeting later today. The CAD strengthened against the USD, reversing the trend from a nearly seven-week low, as the price of oil surged after the cancellation of Iran’s deal. Moreover, better than expected Canadian building permits data also lifted market sentiments. The AUD inched lower against the USD, despite the Australian government presenting an encouraging budget for the nation. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.71 1.76 1.93 2.35 2.77 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.07 2.21 2.39 2.61 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.92 2.08 2.40 2.81 2.0% EIBOR 1.49 1.75 2.02 2.46 2.92 BMIBOR 1.58 1.80 2.33 2.75 3.30 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.29% 2.53% 4.04% 4.29% 4.52% 2.83% 2.95% 2.98% 3.15% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5.15% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg b Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 22.8 (5.5) Turkey 248.1 UK 18.2 (6.5) Brazil 198.2 16.9 Germany 11.1 0.1 Egypt 329.1 (44.9) France 18.5 (0.4) Abu Dhabi 66.5 (1.9) Italy 95.7 (24.3) Bahrain 373.8 82.5 Greece 346.9 (142.4) Dubai 120.2 (21.1) Russia 142.5 1.7 Qatar 93.8 (9.6) Japan 25.5 (8.5) Saudi Arabia 90.9 (15.5) 2.78% 3.02% 2.98% 2.95% 2.0% 1.62% 2.33% 2.16% 2.01% 3.05% 2.58% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 33.4 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:00 Italy Industrial Production MoM Mar 0.50% (0.50%) 14:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate May-10th 0.50% 0.50% 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims May-05th 219k 211k 15:30 US CPI MoM Apr 0.30% (0.10%) 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve May-04th - 460.4b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Samba Financial Group NA NA NA 1,305.0 6.0 7.6 Jabal Omar Development NA NA NA (128.2) NA NA Kingdom Holding NA NA NA 143.0 10.8 102.5 Savola NA NA NA (84.3) NA NA Alawwal Bank NA NA NA 286.1 (11.7) (12.4) Bank Al-Jazira NA NA NA 245.3 13.6 26.6 Advanced Petrochemicals NA NA NA 97.6 (21.6) (6.1) Mouwasat Medical Services NA NA NA 106.0 18.7 7.6 Kuwait Cement Co NA NA NA 3.0 (47.0) (39.9) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 10 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 2.8 0.0 11.1 3.7 6.8 5.8 5.4 0.0 4.1 7.5 4.1 7.6 4.6 9.0 6.3 6.1 4.4 5.8 0.0 0.0 7.0 8.0 6.1 6.1 0.0 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0 2.4 7.8 8.3 4.4 0.0 6.0 3.9 4.6 7.0 4.2 7.5 5.5 0.0 8.8 6.4 4.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.7 4.2 6.8 6.3 6.2 4.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.6 2.2 0.8 1.8 0.8 2.0 2.2 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.4 3.8 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.9 15.8 35.9 7.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.1 12.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 9.5 10.1 40.2 10.5 4.0 21.7 14.2 18.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 5.4 11.2 12.4 40.5 10.7 18.5 16.6 12.9 15.5 9.3 10.6 16.2 40.3 14.7 31.1 13.2 12.0 21.4 7.9 28.3 45.3 9.6 14.1 12.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 16.3 10.8 9.4 12.9 10.7 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.1 2.3 0.4 3.6 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 5.6 14.5 0.2 5.9 11.1 2.9 9.8 1.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.2 13.8 5.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 6.0 1.0 15.1 2.0 4.1 5.1 2.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 3.7 4.2 1.6 4.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.9 5.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.8 1.6 4.3 2.2 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 23.9 37.7 8.2 27.2 24.0 14.5 15.6 19.5 7.5 58.1 34.5 66.7 8.4 35.3 58.3 32.3 62.9 21.5 65.8 4.5 12.5 16.1 99.1 41.1 12.9 19.8 10.4 53.7 11.2 81.6 21.6 31.0 44.7 24.2 19.6 20.3 24.0 69.2 21.4 31.2 46.6 11.4 12.7 30.0 17.2 70.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 26.6 15.1 118.1 32.2 26.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.5 35.8 12.4 27.2 27.2 11.0 34.3 9.4 5.8 103.5 53.5 145.5 6.6 44.7 63.5 140.0 22.6 138.2 5.6 5.5 61.0 74.0 9.9 17.3 5.6 112.0 16.3 194.5 31.5 38.5 54.0 10.5 12.5 33.7 48.0 50.1 33.2 9.1 6.6 14.2 71.3 9.1 41.0 14.8 55.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4