GCC Daily Market Update - 1 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 1 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,823.8 26,149.4 6,950.0 7,533.6 13,189.5 5,481.9 119,528.8 23,098.3 32,887.3 3,480.8 35,965.0 1.4 72.5 19.3 (54.4) (8.2) 8.2 225.7 (193.7) 280.0 (7.2) (68.7) 0.1 0.3 0.3 (0.7) (0.1) 0.2 0.2 (0.8) 0.9 (0.2) (0.2) 5.6 5.8 8.7 (2.0) 2.1 3.2 3.6 1.5 9.9 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.8 8.7 (2.0) 2.1 3.2 3.6 1.5 9.9 5.3 5.6 9,204.6 7,650.1 4,602.2 3,394.4 6,687.8 5,000.0 1,350.7 1,686.1 3,830.4 (123.6) 19.0 (36.5) (45.6) 23.8 (7.7) (1.6) (11.9) (3.3) (1.3) 0.3 (0.8) (1.3) 0.4 (0.2) (0.1) (0.7) (0.1) 8.0 5.9 4.6 0.7 4.4 (1.9) 1.4 5.9 5.3 8.0 5.9 4.6 0.7 4.4 (1.9) 1.4 4.5 5.3 69.1 64.7 3.0 1,339.0 319.6 0.0 0.2 (0.2) 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 (6.3) 0.3 0.2 (0.1) 0.1 (0.8) 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.3 0.6 2.3 (2.7) Global US equity markets ended higher during yesterday’s trading session. The S&P 500 ended rose 0.1% higher, buoyed by gains in Real Estate stocks, however decline in Healthcare stocks capped broad market gains. Persistent weakness in Healthcare shares were largely due to announcement of partnerships to bring down healthcare cost and comments from the US President to control the healthcare expenses in the nation. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended 0.2% lower, amidst strength in EUR. The UK benchmark retreated 0.7%, on the back of strength in the GBP and losses in Mining stocks. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark declined 0.8%, weighed by weakness in Automakers and Financials stocks. The Hang Seng index advanced 0.9%, led by gains in Financials stocks, however Energy stocks fell during the session. GCC GCC equity markets ended mostly lower during yesterday’s trading session. The Saudi Arabian benchmark inched 0.3% higher, backed by gains in Cement stocks as investors expected a stronger 2018, as the government started awarding contracts for its NEOM Project to build a huge business zone. The Dubai benchmark retreated 1.3%, weighed by weakness in Real Estate stocks as Emaar Properties declined 1.7%. Dubai Islamic Bank continued to decline after the announcement of issuance of new shares. Qatar The QE index declined 1.3% during yesterday’s trading session, as investors booked profits following a recent rally in stock prices. The index was pressured by selling amongst foreign institutional investors. Trade turnover and volumes increased during the session, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for about 84% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 42 exchanged hands of which, 33 declined, 7 advanced and 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.8 1.3 4.1 73.0 DSM 20 15.2 1.3 4.2 62.9 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.0 1.7 3.2 1,316.3 UAE (ADX) 15.9 1.3 4.4 41.0 UAE (DFM) 22.6 1.2 5.2 77.5 Kuwait (KSE) 16.3 1.1 5.2 51.5 Oman (MSM) 11.6 1.0 5.2 13.1 Bahrain (BAX) 7.9 0.8 5.8 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar & Oman Invest Doha Insurance Co Mesaieed Petrochem Doha Bank Gulf Int’l Services Top Losers Qatari Investors Group Qatar Insurance Co Qatar General Ins Islamic Holding Group Medicare Group Close Price 8.0 14.0 14.8 33.0 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.0 17.6 15.6 7.8 (20.4) (23.5) (4.9) (6.0) (35.5) 1.3 22.4 2.2 9.1 226.2 17.1 421.6 10.0 252.8 NA 33.7 51.0 46.0 31.1 76.3 (1.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (2.4) (4.2) (3.8) (3.2) (3.1) (3.1) (8.0) (1.9) (6.1) (17.1) 9.2 (39.3) (31.0) 13.6 (47.2) 16.0 124.2 127.5 0.1 27.7 70.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 16.6 33.4 62.3 NA 26.8 Qatar DSM Index 15.0 9,204.6 9,500 9,000 10.0 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 5/Nov 0.0 19/Nov 3/Dec 17/Dec Index Volume (mn) 31/Dec 14/Jan 28/Jan Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,836.1 5,426.1 2,845.2 3,393.6 1,984.2 1,095.9 1,999.0 1D Change (%) (1.6) (0.9) (1.6) (3.4) (1.5) (1.0) (1.0) Buy (%) 41.2 18.7 59.9 12.9 27.2 40.1 Sell (%) 29.8 12.7 42.5 11.9 45.6 57.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 1 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS   US Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate unchanged in the range of 1.25% to 1.5%. The status quo comes on back of Fed’s attempt to stimulate faster economic growth. The Fed’s economic outlook remained relatively upbeat, setting the stage for a rate hike at its next meeting in March-18. (Source: New York Times) Eurozone’s consumer prices increased by 1.3% in January-18, compared to 1.4% increase in December-17. The decrease over the month was driven by slowing inflation in energy sector, which came in at 2.1% in January-18 as compared to 2.9% in December-17. (Source:  Saudi Arabia based International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation has agreed to provide financial aid worth USD 3.0bn to the government of Egypt to finance the import of commodities, the Egyptian Minister of Investment and International Cooperation, Dr Sahar Nasr, stated. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based Riyadh Metro project’s solar panel contract has been awarded to Strukton in partnership with Germany based Wagner Solar Company. The contract includes installation of 4,284 solar panels on a Riyadh Metro depot serving the rail system's lines 4 and 6. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Petroleum Corporation is expected to spend more than USD 500.0bn by 2040 so as to boost its crude oil production capacity to 4.8mn barrels per day (bpd). The current production capacity is around 3.2mn bpd. (Source: Arab News)  Kuwait based investment banking company, NBK Capital Partners, has successfully exited from private debt vehicle, NBK Capital Mezzanine Fund I, worth USD 157.0mn. The fund was providing 17.0% gross Internal Rate of Return on investments in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Turkey. (Source: Trade Arabia) EC.Europe)  Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 8.7% in December-17 as compared to 9.7% in December-16. Over the month the rate was broadly stable. (Source: EC.Europe)  According to European Central Bank’s (ECB) Executive Board Member, Benoit Coeure, the ECB would not rapidly end its bond purchase worth EUR 2.6tn (USD 3.2tn) as inflation is yet to reach its target. (Source: Reuters)  Germany’s total number of persons employed increased by 1.5% YoY to 44.6mn in December-17 and thus the unemployment rate stood at 5.4% during the same period. (Source: Destatis)  Oman government’s multi tranche bond worth USD 6.5bn across international bond markets has received Standard Chartered Bank to act as one of its Joint Lead Managers. (Source: Times of Oman)  Germany’s total retail sales decreased by 1.9% YoY and 1.9% MoM in real terms in December-17. (Source: Destatis)   Australia’s import price index increased by 2.0% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, while the export price index increased by 2.8% QoQ and 2.4% YoY in December-17. (Source: ABS) Oman based special economic zone in Duqm has overall attracted total investments worth OMR 610.2mn in 2017, which was promised by 87 companies that signed land lease agreements with the Special Economic Zone Authority in Duqm. These projects are coming up in a total area of 1.9mn sq. m. (Source: Gulf Base)  Australia’s total building unit’s approvals decreased by 20.0% MoM and 5.5% YoY to 16,891 in December-17. (Source: ABS)   Turkey’s total exports increased by 8.6% YoY to USD 13.9bn while imports increased by 25.4% YoY to USD 23.8bn in December-17. Thus the country’s foreign trade deficit increased by 63.5% YoY to USD 9.2bn during the same period. (Source: Turkstat) Oman based Bank Nizwa has signed a financing agreement with Duqm Development Company LLC to finance Phase 1 of the Duqm Frontier Town project, which would cover an area of 23 hectares. (Source: Gulf Base) QATAR NEWS  Qatar signed a MoU with US to create a basis for cooperation in the field of energy and to facilitate their sharing of technical knowledge, advice, skills and expertise. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar is expected to report an annual growth of 3.1% during 2018, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar's Health committee has requested private sector companies to invest in the medical sector and to work for its development to achive Qatar's National Vision 2030. (Source: OANA News)  Qatar Central Bank reported an increase in its foreign reserves by 5.7% QoQ and 1.8% MoM to QAR 136.9bn in Q4-17. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Commercial Bank Groups’ CEO, Joseph Abraham, stated that the bank is planning to increase its current lending to public sector companies to 16.0% from the current 8.0% in order to diversify its loan book. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Electricity & Water Company has reported 4.8% YoY increase in its net profit to QAR 1.6bn for the financial year 2017. The EPS increased by 4.8% YoY to QAR 14.69 during the same period. (Source: QE)  Qatar Petrolium has recevied exploration rights in five offshore blocks in Mexico by the National Hydrocarbon Commission of Mexico. These blocks includes 3, 4, 6, and 7 in the Perdido basin as part of a consortium comprising Shell company with 60% interest and Qatar Petroleum with a 40% interest. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Petroleum issued a new price list in which premium grade petrol price would increase by dirham 5.0 to QAR 1.85 per litre, super grade would increase to QAR 1.9 per litre and deisel price to increase to QAR 1.85 per litre. This change is effective from 1st February-18. (Source: The GCC NEWS    Dubai based shopping mall company, Majid Al Futtaim, has reported 8.0% YoY increase in its revenue to AED 32.2bn (USD 8.8bn), while the EBITDA increased by 1.0% YoY to AED 4.2bn for the financial year 2017. On constant currency terms, the revenue increased by 14.0% YoY and EBITDA by 5.0% YoY during the same period. (Source: Majid Al Futtaim) Dubai based developer, Nakheel Properties reported 14.0% YoY increase in its net profit to AED 5.7bn (USD 1.5bn) for the financial year 2017. At the end of the year, Nakheel had 4.6mn sq.ft of retail space in operation that led to increased annual revenue from the retail business – which is a key focus for Nakheel. (Source: Nakheel) Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has awarded a consultancy contract worth AED 6.3mn for the designing and construction of two water reservoirs in the country. The first reservoir, with a storage capacity of 120 mn gallons of desalinated water, would be located at Al Nakhli, while the other, with a storage capacity of 60 mn gallons, would be at Al Lusaily area of Dubai. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Anu Dhabi based VPS Healthcare has signed a multi-year partnership agreement with health technology based company, Royal Philips, to install Tasy EMR in all VPS’s hospitals and clinics throughout the UAE, Oman and India. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Saudi government is planning to build and operate 1,600 schools in two phases across the country, under its special project, which will be undertaken in partnership with the private sector enterprises. In the first phase, a total number of 60 schools would be build in Makkah and Jeddah region. (Source: Trade Arabia) Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 1 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2444 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.1900 EUR/QAR 4.5315 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4221 JPY/QAR 0.0334 USD/CHF 0.9313 GBP/QAR 5.1786 USD/CAD 1.2315 CHF/QAR 3.9101 AUD/USD 0.8055 CAD/QAR 2.9570 NZD/USD 0.7365 AUD/QAR 2.9332 USD/INR 63.0875 INR/QAR 0.0577 USD/TRY 3.7554 TRY/QAR 0.9697 USD/ZAR 11.8514 ZAR/QAR 0.3073 USD/BRL 3.1875 BRL/QAR 1.1424 FX Commentary The USD ended flattish against the basket of major currencies yesterday. The USD gained briefly after US Fed interest rates decision and provided a positive outlook on the pace of inflation in 2018. The EUR ended flat, however it had risen earlier in the session following the release of encouraging Eurozone inflation data, keeping the expectations of a swift revision in bond purchases by the European Central Bank. The CAD strengthened against its US counterpart, backed by data showed strong growth in Canada’s economy with GDP rising 0.4% MoM in Novermber-17. The GBP ended higher against the greenback, buoyed by broad-based weakness in USD and continuous optimism surrounding better prospects of Brexit deal. The AUD weakened against the USD, following the release of discouraging Australian inflation data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.44 1.47 1.57 1.77 2.26 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.15 2.23 2.36 2.61 3.02 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.60 1.67 1.89 2.28 2.0% EIBOR 1.20 1.36 1.58 1.87 2.62 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.08 2.30 2.90 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.57% 2.16% 4.56% 3.26% 3.33% 3.40% 2.54% 2.68% 2.73% 2.95% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.3 (5.1) Turkey 167.3 UK 16.8 (1.8) Brazil 146.2 (62.9) 9.5 (5.1) Egypt 266.9 (130.6) 2.35% 2.62% 2.0% 2.02% 1.0% 2.69% 2.76% 2.21% 2.40% 2.83% 2.66% 1.51% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Germany Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (15.7) France 16.8 (2.4) Abu Dhabi 52.0 (5.0) Italy 98.1 (38.0) Bahrain 238.1 (7.4) Greece 333.7 (298.4) Dubai 117.7 (3.6) Russia 107.7 (55.6) Qatar 87.8 (5.4) Japan 19.0 (8.0) Saudi Arabia 78.1 (15.8) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 12:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA 16:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 17:30 Canada Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI 18:00 US ISM Manufacturing Period Survey Prior Jan F 59.6 59.6 Jan 56.5 56.3 Jan-27th 235k 233k Jan - 54.7 Jan 58.6 59.3 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) Dubai Financial Market PJSC YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 59.5 (24.2) 114.9 350.4 9.6 (14.5) 109.7 11.9 12.3 Al Hammadi Development NA NA NA 30.8 186.7 30.4 Warba Bank KSCP NA NA NA 2.0 18.7 (9.6) Bank Sohar NA NA NA 6.5 5.5 (12.2) 407.7 (5.3) (3.8) 54.7 (3.2) (44.4) Tabreed Abu Dhabi Aviation Co Dubai National Insurance NA NA NA 8.1 126.7 (26.4) Alkhaleej Investment 6.1 (12.8) (22.4) 8.4 (48.8) (27.0) Al-Enma'A Real Estate Co NA NA NA (8.6) (8.3) NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 1 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 25th January 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 3.1 5.7 4.8 5.0 0.0 4.2 6.4 4.3 6.4 4.4 5.9 5.0 5.8 4.7 6.1 0.0 11.0 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.9 5.1 4.8 3.5 4.2 3.8 2.7 6.8 6.1 4.0 4.4 4.6 2.8 3.3 6.0 3.1 6.5 4.3 0.0 7.4 5.2 20.7 0.0 3.0 3.8 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.8 2.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 3.9 0.6 1.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 2.1 1.3 2.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 2.5 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.2 7.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.5 44.4 24.1 9.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.6 15.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 11.3 9.8 21.8 11.2 6.6 31.5 15.5 31.6 15.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.7 12.3 5.6 12.9 12.0 (H) ( ) 11.9 26.5 16.6 13.6 18.4 10.8 11.9 19.9 31.1 8.5 35.0 61.9 13.7 32.4 11.3 18.3 51.7 9.9 14.5 2.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.2 12.1 12.3 23.1 14.8 14.2 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 6.0 13.1 5.1 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.7 4.2 1.4 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.0 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.6 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 19.5 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.6 40.0 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 19.0 113.5 43.6 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.9 69.8 22.8 35.1 47.5 11.4 12.7 30.8 17.4 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.2 Stock Price (QR) 33.5 28.6 14.6 33.0 32.5 13.2 41.9 10.1 7.1 101.9 62.3 139.9 7.8 67.5 80.0 154.6 21.1 115.0 6.5 7.3 74.0 73.0 8.7 19.8 6.3 113.5 14.3 200.0 37.1 44.2 66.0 -13.8 13.0 53.5 45.7 58.0 38.5 11.7 8.2 16.9 16.9 38.5 44.5 18.1 63.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4