Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers Index Report - May 2017

Transcription

1. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX A MONTHLY PUBLICATION MAY 2017 REPORT SURVEY MANAGEMENT DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA, ABUJA
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) MAY 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The May 2017 PMI, conducted by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria, was carried out during the period May 8-12, 2017. The respondents were purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria (2 states in each geopolitical zone and the Federal Capital Territory, Fig. 1). A total of 1,740 responses were received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 89.2 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than the data they provided. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives. Survey responses indicate whether there is change or no change in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the previous month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percentage of positive responses plus one-half of the percentage of those reporting no change. The composite PMI is then computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices for manufacturing sector: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for non-manufacturing sector is computed 1
3. from four diffusion indices : business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally declining. The sub-sectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth. For the sub-sectors reporting contraction/decline, they are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest decline. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report Production level, new orders and raw materials inventories growing at a faster rate; employment level recovering from contraction; and supplier delivery time moderating Fig 2: Trends of the five major manufacturing sub-indices The Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.5 index points in May 2017, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Ten of the 16 subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: primary metal; petroleum & coal products; plastics & rubber products; paper products; electrical equipment; appliances & components; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; cement; food, beverage & tobacco products and chemical & pharmaceutical products. The remaining 6 sub-sectors declined in the order: transportation equipment; nonmetallic mineral products; fabricated metal products; printing & related support activities; furniture & related products and computer & electronic products. 2
4. Overall Manufacturing PMI 55 .0 50 point 53.0 Index Points 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 May '17 Mar '17 Jan '17 Nov '16 Sep '16 Jul '16 May '16 Mar '16 Jan '16 Nov '15 Sep '15 Jul '15 May '15 Mar '15 Jan '15 Nov '14 Sept '14 Jul '14 41.0 Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI Table 1: Manufacturing at a Glance Series Index* April Series Index* May Percentage Point Change 51.1 58.5 50.1 47.5 46.6 50.6 37.7 65.1 69.2 45.1 40.0 46.4 52.5 58.7 50.5 49.9 50.7 50.8 37.6 61.3 68.4 46.1 42.3 51.8 1.4 0.2 0.4 2.4 4.1 0.2 -0.1 -3.8 -0.8 1.0 2.3 5.4 Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products 63.4 52.1 53.1 42.8 51.0 48.0 55.9 51.0 52.1 39.8 48.9 50.6 56.1 54.7 53.0 49.7 56.3 48.8 54.4 49.0 48.1 57.7 62.1 60.7 Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment 42.7 51.2 54.1 49.3 64.5 48.9 54.9 45.0 Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventory New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Outstanding Business/Backlog of Work Stock of Finished Goods Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Faster Faster Faster Slower From Contraction Faster Faster Slower Slower Slower Slower From Contraction 2 3 5 2 1 2 27 17 35 2 27 1 -7.3 2.6 -0.1 6.9 5.3 0.8 -1.5 -2.0 -4.0 17.9 13.2 10.1 Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Slower Faster Slower Slower Faster Slower Slower From Expansion From Expansion From Contraction From Contraction Faster 6 2 2 4 2 5 8 1 1 1 1 2 21.8 -2.3 0.8 -4.3 Growing Declining Growing Declining From Contraction From Expansion Faster Faster 1 1 3 11 Direction Manufacturing Sub-Sectors \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment level and inventories. The weights assigned to these variables are 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20% respectively. *The series index is a diffusion index defined as a weighted percentage of high, same and low with 1.0, 0.5 and 0.0 as weights respectively. ** Number of month moving in current direction 3
5. 2 .1 Production Level The production level index for manufacturing sector expanded for the third consecutive month in May 2017. The index at 58.7 points indicated an increase in production at a faster rate, when compared to the 58.5 points in the previous month. Fifteen manufacturing sub-sectors recorded increase in production level during the review month in the following order: primary metal; electrical equipment; petroleum & coal products; cement; chemical & pharmaceutical products; plastics & rubber products; computer & electronic products; food, beverage & tobacco products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; appliances & components; paper products; nonmetallic mineral products; furniture & related products; printing & related support activities and fabricated metal products, while the transportation equipment sub-sector recorded decline in production (Table 2). Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index April 58.5 Series Index May 58.7 63.6 61.5 68.0 55.6 65.4 51.6 64.2 56.8 61.4 41.7 50.0 56.6 28.6 59.3 62.0 64.3 57.1 67.3 64.7 62.5 71.9 51.5 62.4 54.5 55.8 56.7 69.2 63.9 76.7 51.8 62.4 45.5 Percentage Point Change Direction 0.2 Growing -6.5 5.8 -3.3 6.9 6.5 -0.1 -1.8 -2.3 -5.6 15.0 19.2 7.3 48.1 -7.5 0.4 -18.8 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 3 Slower Faster Slower Faster Faster Slower Slower Slower Slower From Contraction From No Change Faster From Contraction Slower Faster From Expansion 5 3 2 3 2 2 8 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 2.2 New Orders New orders index for the month of May stood at 50.5 points, indicating a faster growth in new orders for the second consecutive month. Eight sub-sectors reported growth in new orders in the following order: appliances & components; plastics & rubber products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; paper products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; food, beverage & tobacco products; petroleum & coal products and primary metal. The cement and electrical equipment subsectors remained unchanged, while the printing & related support activities; nonmetallic mineral products; computer & electronic products; transportation equipment; fabricated metal products and furniture & related products sub-sectors recorded declines (Table 3). 4
6. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index April 50.1 Series Index May 50.5 81.8 55.8 49.0 33.3 42.3 48.4 57.5 47.4 51.1 28.3 38.9 50.0 39.3 52.0 58.5 50.0 64.3 50.0 54.9 43.8 50.0 47.1 54.3 48.0 43.0 55.0 53.8 59.7 53.3 42.4 55.9 45.5 Percentage Point Change Direction 0.4 Growing -17.5 -5.8 5.9 10.5 7.7 -1.3 -3.2 0.6 -8.1 26.7 14.9 9.7 14.0 -9.6 -2.6 -4.5 Rate of Change Faster Growing Slower No Change From Expansion Growing From Contraction Declining Slower No ChangeFrom Contraction Declining Faster Growing Slower Declining Slower Declining From Expansion Growing From Contraction Growing From Contraction Growing From No Change Growing From Contraction Declining From Expansion Growing Slower Declining From No Change Trend (Months) 2 5 2 1 4 6 5 8 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time At 49.9 index points, the supplier delivery time index for the manufacturing sector declined for the second consecutive month, though at a slower rate, when compared to the previous month. Eight sub-sectors recorded delayed suppliers’ delivery time in the following order: appliances & components; transportation equipment; fabricated metal products; nonmetallic mineral products; cement; furniture & related products; chemical & pharmaceutical products and food, beverage & tobacco products. The remaining 8 sub-sectors recorded improvement in delivery time in May 2017 in the following order: primary metal; petroleum & coal products; paper products; printing & related support activities; computer & electronic products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; electrical equipment and plastics & rubber products (Table 4). Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY TIME PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index April 47.5 Series Index May 49.9 50.0 46.2 49.0 55.6 61.5 46.9 49.1 46.8 48.9 48.3 61.1 50.0 53.6 45.3 43.5 21.4 35.7 46.2 47.1 56.3 53.1 42.2 48.1 46.4 44.2 60.0 65.4 52.8 73.3 56.5 53.8 40.9 5 Percentage Point Change Direction 2.4 Declining -14.3 0.0 -1.9 0.7 -8.4 -4.7 -1.0 -0.4 -4.7 11.7 4.3 2.8 19.7 11.2 10.3 19.5 Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Rate of Change Slower Trend (Months) 2 From No Change Flat Faster Faster Slower Faster Faster Faster Faster From Contraction Faster From No Change Faster From Contraction From Contraction Slower 1 6 2 4 5 2 2 3 6 1 2 1 3 1 1 2
7. 2 .4 Employment Level Employment level index in May 2017 stood at 50.7 points, indicating growth in employment level after twenty-six consecutive month of contraction in employment. Of the 16 sub-sectors, 7 recorded growth in employment in the following order: primary metal; plastics & rubber products; petroleum & coal products; paper products; appliances & components; cement and fabricated metal products. The electrical equipment and textile, apparel, leather & footwear remained unchanged, while the remaining 7 sub sectors recorded contraction in employment in the following order: computer & electronic products; transportation equipment; chemical & pharmaceutical products; nonmetallic mineral products; food, beverage & tobacco products; printing & related support activities and furniture & related products (Table 5). Table 5: Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index April 46.6 Series Index May 50.7 50.0 44.2 47.0 27.8 34.6 44.3 48.2 50.5 45.5 48.3 44.4 47.4 53.6 45.9 46.0 50.0 57.1 53.8 44.1 37.5 50.0 52.5 48.6 49.0 46.5 60.0 61.5 62.5 63.3 48.8 50.0 40.0 Percentage Rate Point of Trend Change Direction Change (Months) 4.1 Growing From Contraction 1 7.1 9.6 -2.9 9.7 15.4 8.2 0.4 -1.5 1.0 11.7 17.1 15.1 9.7 2.9 4.0 -10.0 Growing Growing Declining Declining No Change Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining No Change Declining From No Change From Contraction Faster Slower From Contraction From Contraction Slower From Expansion Slower From Contraction From Contraction From Contraction Faster Slower From Contraction From No Change 1 1 19 10 2 1 3 1 17 1 1 1 2 22 5 1 2.5 Raw Materials Inventory At 50.8 points, the raw materials inventory index grew for the second consecutive month. The index grew at a faster rate relative to its level in April 2017. Of the 16 sub-sectors, 10 recorded growth in raw materials inventories in the order: petroleum & coal products; plastics & rubber products; paper products; transportation equipment; appliances & components; primary metal; food, beverage & tobacco products; nonmetallic mineral products; electrical equipment and cement. The computer & electronic products, fabricated metal products, and printing & related support activities sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the furniture & related products; chemical & pharmaceutical products and textile, apparel, leather & footwear recorded lower inventories in May 2017 (Table 6). 6
8. Table 6 : Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORIES PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index April 50.6 Series Index May 50.8 54.5 42.3 47.0 50.0 57.7 47.4 56.2 54.7 50.0 40.0 66.7 44.7 50.0 47.3 53.0 50.0 57.1 51.9 45.1 50.0 53.1 50.0 55.8 41.9 53.5 60.0 65.4 63.9 56.7 50.0 45.1 59.1 Percentage Point Change Direction 0.2 Growing 2.6 9.6 -1.9 0.0 -4.6 2.6 -0.4 -12.8 3.5 20.0 -1.3 19.2 6.7 2.7 -7.9 9.1 Growing Growing Declining No Change Growing No Change Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing No Change Declining Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 2 Faster From Contraction Faster Flat Slower From Contraction Slower From Expansion From No Change From Contraction Slower From Contraction From No Change From Contraction From Expansion From No Change 6 1 4 2 2 2 8 1 1 1 2 1 1 18 1 1 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report Business activity and new orders growing at a faster rate; employment level and raw materials inventories growing from contraction in May 2017 Fig 4: Trends of the major non-manufacturing sub-indices 7
9. The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector grew to 52 .7 in May 2017 after 16 consecutive months of contraction. Of the 18 non-manufacturing sub-sectors, 10 recorded growth in the following order: agriculture; transportation & warehousing; educational services; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; utilities; information & communication; water supply, sewage & waste management; accommodation & food services; health care & social assistance; and finance & insurance. The remaining 8 sub-sectors recorded contraction in the order: construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; public administration; management of companies; arts, entertainment & recreation; real estate rental & leasing; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; and wholesale/retail trade (Table 7 and Fig. 4). Table 7: Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Series Index Index April Composite PMI \2 49.5 Business Activity 53.3 Level of new orders/customers/incoming business 50.5 Level of employment 45.5 Inventory 48.6 Average price of Inputs (volume weighted) 63.1 Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work 41.6 New Exports orders 29.2 Imports 33.2 Inventory (sentiments) 41.1 Series Index May Percentage Point Change 52.7 56.2 53.2 50.2 51.4 62.7 45.3 31.6 34.1 43.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 4.7 2.8 -0.4 3.7 2.4 0.9 2.5 52.7 66.7 48.2 42.3 59.8 59.1 50.2 52.7 56.3 47.9 44.2 47.5 48.8 49.1 64.4 57.5 55.0 49.4 4.4 5.1 5.0 4.3 1.7 5.7 -4.9 6.0 3.9 14.6 1.3 -4.6 -4.1 1.9 9.0 -2.6 3.3 3.6 Rate of Change Trend (Months) Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining From Contraction Faster Faster From Contraction From Contraction Slower Slower Slower Slower Slower 1 2 2 1 1 19 35 35 35 35 Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining From Contraction Faster Slower Slower Faster Faster Slower From Contraction Faster Slower Slower From Expansion From Expansion Slower Faster Slower Faster Slower 1 12 4 24 6 3 3 1 2 3 27 1 1 17 3 2 3 17 Direction Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade 48.3 61.6 43.2 38.0 58.1 53.4 55.1 46.7 52.4 33.3 42.9 52.1 52.9 47.2 55.4 60.1 51.7 45.8 \2 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories 8
10. Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 60 .0 50 point Index Points 55.0 50.0 May '17 Mar '17 Jan '17 Nov '16 Sep '16 Jul '16 May '16 Mar '16 Jan 16 Nov '15 Sep '15 Jul '15 May '15 Mar '15 Jan '15 Nov '14 Sept '14 40.0 Jul '14 45.0 Fig. 5: Trend of Non-Manufacturing PMI 3.1 Business Activity The business activity index rose to 56.2 points in May 2017 for the second consecutive month. The index grew at a faster rate, when compared to its level in the previous month. Fourteen sub-sectors recorded growth in the following order: agriculture; transportation & warehousing; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; utilities; educational services; information & communication; health care & social assistance; water supply, sewage & waste management; accommodation & food services; public administration; finance & insurance; real estate rental & leasing; wholesale/retail trade; and repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles. The management of companies sub-sector remained unchanged, while the remaining 3 sub-sectors recorded growth in the order: arts, entertainment & recreation; professional, scientific, & technical services; and construction (Table 8). Table 8: Business Activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index April 53.3 48.6 70.4 39.4 41.0 61.3 57.8 60.0 53.1 56.0 33.3 50.0 58.3 57.8 51.5 61.3 64.0 59.1 47.8 Series Index May 56.2 55.3 73.2 44.1 47.1 60.2 69.5 53.9 58.9 60.2 50.0 46.6 55.0 53.1 50.7 71.7 64.0 57.5 50.8 9 Percentage Point Change 2.9 6.7 2.8 4.7 6.1 -1.1 11.7 -6.1 5.8 4.2 16.7 -3.4 -3.3 -4.7 -0.8 10.4 0.0 -1.6 3.0 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 12 Declining Slower 4 Declining Slower 15 Growing Slower 6 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 3 Growing Faster 2 No Change From Contraction 1 Declining From No Change 1 Growing Slower 3 Growing Slower 2 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 2 Growing Flat 2 Growing Slower 3 Growing From Contraction 1
11. 3 .2 New Orders At 53.2 points, the new orders index grew in May 2017 for the second consecutive month. Of the 18 sub-sectors, 11 subsectors reported growth in new orders in the following order: agriculture; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; transportation & warehousing; utilities; water supply, sewage & waste management; educational services; management of companies; finance & insurance; accommodation & food services; real estate rental & leasing; and information & communication. The repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles sub sector remained unchanged, while the remaining 6 sub-sectors recorded decline in the order: professional, scientific, & technical services; construction; arts, entertainment & recreation; public administration; wholesale/retail trade; and health care & social assistance (Table 9). Table 9: New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index April 50.5 46.3 68.5 47.0 32.1 55.1 59.8 58.0 44.4 56.0 41.7 43.5 54.2 53.1 51.5 55.7 68.0 56.8 45.7 Series Index May 53.2 52.2 72.3 44.1 43.1 60.2 67.1 53.9 49.4 50.9 58.3 42.4 45.0 51.6 50.0 66.3 66.0 62.5 48.0 Percentage Point Change 2.7 5.9 3.8 -2.9 11.0 5.1 7.3 -4.1 5.0 -5.1 16.6 -1.1 -9.2 -1.5 -1.5 10.6 -2.0 5.7 2.3 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 12 Declining Faster 4 Declining Slower 24 Growing Faster 6 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 3 Declining Slower 2 Growing Slower 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 19 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing Slower 2 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing Faster 3 Growing Slower 2 Growing Faster 2 Declining Slower 5 3.3 Employment Level The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 50.2 points, indicating growth in employment in May 2017 after sixteen consecutive months of contraction. Eight subsectors recorded growth in employment level in the following order: transportation & warehousing; management of companies; agriculture; educational services; information & communication; utilities; accommodation & food services; and arts, entertainment & recreation. The real estate rental & leasing sub-sector remained unchanged, while the remaining 9 subsectors recorded decline in employment in the following order: construction; public administration; professional, scientific, & technical services; water supply, sewage & waste management; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; finance & insurance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; wholesale/retail trade; and health care & social assistance (Table 10). 10
12. Table 10 : Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index April 45.5 47.2 50.0 42.4 37.2 51.3 46.1 49.0 42.6 47.4 33.3 37.9 50.0 49.2 41.9 52.8 54.0 40.9 44.3 Series Index May 50.2 51.8 58.0 51.5 38.9 57.4 46.3 47.1 49.4 53.7 58.3 42.4 40.0 50.0 48.6 59.8 52.0 45.0 48.9 Percentage Point Change 4.7 4.6 8.0 9.1 1.7 6.1 0.2 -1.9 6.8 6.3 25.0 4.5 -10.0 0.8 6.7 7.0 -2.0 4.1 4.6 Direction Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining No Change Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Rate of Trend Change (Months) From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 From No Change 1 From Contraction 1 Slower 24 Faster 5 Slower 12 Faster 16 Slower 17 From Contraction 1 From Contraction 1 Slower 16 From No Change 1 From Contraction 18 Slower 14 Faster 3 Slower 2 Slower 2 Slower 18 3.4 Inventory Non-manufacturing inventory index in May 2017 stood at 51.4 points indicating growth in inventories in the review period. The non-manufacturing sector recorded growth in inventory after 3 consecutive months of low inventories. Nine sub-sectors recorded higher inventories in the following order: agriculture; educational services; information & communication; transportation & warehousing; water supply, sewage & waste management; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; health care & social assistance; arts, entertainment & recreation; and accommodation & food services. The public administration subsectors remain unchanged, while the management of companies; construction; real estate rental & leasing; professional, scientific, & technical services; finance & insurance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; utilities; and wholesale/retail trade subsectors recorded lower inventory (Table 11). Table 11: Inventory at a Glance Index INVENTORY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index April 48.6 50.9 57.4 43.9 41.9 64.9 50.0 53.3 46.9 50.0 25.0 40.2 45.8 51.6 43.8 51.9 54.5 50.0 45.6 Series Index May 51.4 51.8 63.4 52.9 40.3 61.5 53.7 45.8 53.2 60.2 25.0 45.5 50.0 40.7 47.2 59.8 47.9 55.0 49.7 11 Percentage Point Change 2.8 0.9 6.0 9.0 -1.6 -3.4 3.7 -7.5 6.3 10.2 0.0 5.3 4.2 -10.9 3.4 7.9 -6.6 5.0 4.1 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Faster 27 Growing Slower 3 Growing From No Change 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From No Change 1 Declining Flat 2 Declining Slower 6 No ChangeFrom Contraction 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Slower 7 Growing Faster 6 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing From No Change 1 Declining Slower 4
13. APPENDICES : HISTORICAL DATA Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 52.5 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 58.7 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 50.5 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 49.9 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 50.7 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 50.8 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 37.6 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 61.3 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 68.4 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.1 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40 42.3 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4 51.8
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 52.7 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 56.2 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 53.2 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 50.2 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 51.4 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 62.7 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 45.3 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 31.6 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 34.1 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employmen t Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month NON-MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1 43.6