Central Bank of Nigeria: Purchasing Managers Index Report - April 2017

Transcription

1. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX A MONTHLY PUBLICATION APRIL 2017 REPORT SURVEY MANAGEMENT DIVISION STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA, ABUJA
2. PURCHASING MANAGERS ’ INDEX (PMI) APRIL 2017 REPORT 1.0 Introduction The Statistics Department, Central Bank of Nigeria conducts a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria: two states in each of the six geo-political zones, and the FCT (Fig. 1). The survey results are used to compute the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The survey for this month was conducted April 18th to 24th, 2017 with a total of 1,743 responses received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 89.4 per cent. The Bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than that stated by the respondents. The data contained herein further provides input for policy decisions. Fig. 1: Map of Nigeria showing the survey locations 1.1 Data and Method of Presentation The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives. Survey responses indicate whether there is change or no change in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the previous month. For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percent of positive responses plus one-half of the percent of those reporting no change. The composite PMI is then computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices for manufacturing sector: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The composite PMI for non-manufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each. 1
3. A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing /non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally declining. The sub-sectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth. For the sub-sectors reporting contraction/decline, they are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest decline. 2.0 Manufacturing PMI Report Manufacturing PMI for the month of April 2017 showing recovery, production level growing faster; new orders and raw materials inventories growing from contraction; employment level is declining at a slower rate; while supplier delivery time is struggling to catch up. 60.0 Production Level New Orders Supplier Delivery Time Employment Level Raw Materials Inventory 50 point 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 38.0 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Jul '16 Jun '16 May '16 Apr '16 Mar '16 Feb '16 36.0 Fig 2: Trends of the five major sub-indices The Manufacturing PMI stood at 51.1 index points in April 2017, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector after three months of contraction (Fig. 3 and Table 1). Ten of the sixteen subsectors reported growth in the review month in the following order: appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; chemical & pharmaceutical products; cement; nonmetallic mineral products; printing & related support activities; furniture & related products; electrical equipment and plastics & rubber products. The paper products; primary metal; computer & electronic products; fabricated metal products; petroleum & coal products and transportation equipment sub sectors reported decline in the review period. 2
4. Overall Manufacturing PMI 55 .0 50 point Purching Managers' Index 53.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sept '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 41.0 Fig. 3: Trend of Manufacturing PMI Table 1: Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \1 Production level New orders Supplier delivery time Employment level Raw materials/WIP Inventories New Export Orders Output Prices Input Prices Quantity of Purchases Business Outstanding/ Backlog of Work Stocks of Finished Goods Series Index* March 47.7 50.8 45.6 51.3 43.6 49.1 38.5 65.0 68.3 50.1 43.6 45.1 Series Index* April 51.1 58.5 50.1 47.5 46.6 50.6 37.7 65.1 69.2 45.1 40.0 46.4 Percentage Point Change 3.4 7.7 4.5 -3.8 3.0 1.5 -0.8 0.1 0.9 -5.0 -3.6 1.3 55.4 44.1 41.8 47.7 38.9 41.2 51.9 43.3 49.1 35.8 45.6 45.5 63.4 52.1 53.1 42.8 51.0 48.0 55.9 51.0 52.1 39.8 48.9 50.6 8.0 8.0 11.3 -4.9 12.1 6.8 4.0 7.7 3.0 4.0 3.3 5.1 Direction Growing Growing Growing Worsening Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change From Contraction Faster From Contraction From Improving Slower From Contraction Faster Faster Faster From Expansion Faster Slower Trend** (Months) 1 2 4 1 26 1 26 16 34 1 26 26 Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Faster From Contraction From Contraction Faster From Contraction Slower Faster From Contraction From Contraction Slower Slower From Contraction 5 4 1 3 1 4 7 1 1 4 1 1 Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal 49.5 42.7 -6.8 Declining Faster 16 Printing & related support activities 41.0 51.2 10.2 Growing From Contraction 19 Textile, apparel, leather & footwear 46.3 54.1 7.8 Growing From Contraction 1 Transportation equipment 29.5 49.3 19.8 Declining Slower 10 \1 The composite PMI is a weighted average of the following diffusion indices: production level, new orders, supplier deliveries, employment ** Number of month moving in current direction 3
5. 2 .1 Production Level The production level index for manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month in April 2017. The index at 58.5 points indicated an increase in production at a faster rate when compared to the 50.8 points in the previous month. Thirteen manufacturing sub-sectors recorded increase in production level during the review month in the following order: chemical & pharmaceutical products; electrical equipment; transportation equipment; food, beverage & tobacco products; appliances & components; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; cement; nonmetallic mineral products; printing & related support activities; furniture & related products; plastics & rubber products; computer & electronic products and fabricated metal products. The petroleum & coal products sub-sector remained unchanged, while the primary metal and paper products sub-sectors recorded declines in production in April 2017 (Table 2). Table 2: Production at a Glance Index PRODUCTION PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index March 50.8 Series Index April 58.5 83.3 53.7 45.8 53.1 36.1 49.5 57.9 51.7 50.0 44.6 58.3 40.9 20.0 48.6 58.2 25.0 63.6 61.5 68.0 55.6 65.4 51.6 64.2 56.8 61.4 41.7 50.0 56.6 28.6 59.3 62.0 64.3 Percentage Point Change Direction 7.7 Growing -19.7 7.8 22.2 2.5 29.3 2.1 6.3 5.1 11.4 -2.9 -8.3 15.7 8.6 10.7 3.8 39.3 Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Declining No Change Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Rate of Change Faster Trend (Months) 2 Slower Faster From Contraction Faster From Contraction From Contraction Faster Faster From No Change Faster From Expansion From Contraction Slower From Contraction Faster From Contraction 4 2 1 2 1 1 7 2 1 5 1 1 14 1 2 1 2.2 New Orders At 50.1 points, the index grew after three consecutive months of decline. Six sub-sectors reported growth in new orders in the following order: appliances & components; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; food, beverage & tobacco products; cement; printing & related support activities and nonmetallic mineral products. The plastics & rubber products and transportation equipment subsectors remained unchanged, while the remaining eight sub-sectors declined in the order: paper products; computer & electronic products; petroleum & coal products; primary metal; electrical equipment; furniture & related products; fabricated metal products and chemical & pharmaceutical products (Table 3). 4
6. Table 3 : New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index March 45.6 Series Index April 50.1 61.1 46.2 52.5 40.6 38.9 43.8 53.5 43.9 46.6 41.9 37.5 31.8 16.7 37.9 52.6 38.9 81.8 55.8 49.0 33.3 42.3 48.4 57.5 47.4 51.1 28.3 38.9 50.0 39.3 52.0 58.5 50.0 Percentage Rate Point of Trend Change Direction Change (Months) 4.5 Growing From Contraction 1 20.7 9.6 -3.5 -7.3 3.4 4.6 4.0 3.5 4.5 -13.6 1.4 18.2 22.6 14.1 5.9 11.1 Growing Faster Growing From Contraction Declining From Expansion Declining Faster Declining Slower Declining Slower Growing Faster Declining Slower Growing From Contraction Declining Faster Declining Slower No ChangeFrom Contraction Declining Slower Growing From Contraction Growing Faster No ChangeFrom Contraction 4 1 1 3 5 4 7 16 1 4 3 1 14 1 2 1 2.3 Supplier Delivery Time At 47.5 index points, the supplier delivery time index for the manufacturing sector worsened after a month of improvement. Ten sub-sectors recorded worse suppliers’ delivery time in the following order: transportation equipment; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; printing & related support activities; cement; furniture & related products; fabricated metal products; paper products; nonmetallic mineral products; chemical & pharmaceutical products and food, beverage & tobacco products. The plastics & rubber products and appliances & components sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the electrical equipment; petroleum & coal products; computer & electronic products; and primary metal sub-sectors recorded improvement in delivery time in April 2017 (Table 4). Table 4: Supplier Delivery Time at a Glance Index SUPPLIER DELIVERY PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index March 51.3 Series Index April 47.5 50.0 44.4 53.3 59.4 58.3 51.6 51.8 48.3 48.9 58.1 50.0 54.5 53.3 52.1 47.9 50.0 50.0 46.2 49.0 55.6 61.5 46.9 49.1 46.8 48.9 48.3 61.1 50.0 53.6 45.3 43.5 21.4 Percentage Rate Point of Trend Change Direction Change (Months) -3.8 Worsening From Improving 1 0.0 No Change Flat 3 1.8 Worsening Slower 5 -4.3 Worsening From Improving 1 -3.8 Improving Slower 3 3.2 Improving Faster 4 -4.7 Worsening From Improving 1 -2.7 Worsening From Improving 1 -1.5 Worsening Faster 2 0.0 Worsening Flat 5 -9.8 Worsening From Improving 1 11.1 Improving From No Change 1 -4.5 No Change From Improving 1 0.3 Improving Faster 2 -6.8 Worsening From Improving 1 -4.4 Worsening Faster 2 -28.6 Worsening From No Change 1 5
7. 2 .4 Employment Level Employment level index in April 2017 stood at 46.6 points, indicating a slowing decline in employment level after twenty-six consecutive months of decline. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, twelve recorded declines in employment in the following order: computer & electronic products; electrical equipment; cement; fabricated metal products; petroleum & coal products; nonmetallic mineral products; printing & related support activities; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; chemical & pharmaceutical products; plastics & rubber products; food, beverage & tobacco products and paper products. The appliances & components and transportation equipment remained unchanged, while the primary metal and furniture & related products sub-sectors recorded growth during the review period (Table 5). Table 5: Employment Level at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT LEVEL PMI Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Series Index March 43.6 Series Index April 46.6 55.6 38.9 39.2 43.8 33.3 44.8 47.8 42.2 38.6 41.9 37.5 42.4 36.7 47.1 46.9 37.5 50.0 44.2 47.0 27.8 34.6 44.3 48.2 50.5 45.5 48.3 44.4 47.4 53.6 45.9 46.0 50.0 Percentage Point Change Direction 3.0 Declining -5.6 5.3 7.8 -16.0 1.3 -0.5 0.4 8.3 6.9 6.4 6.9 5.0 16.9 -1.2 -0.9 12.5 No Change Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining No Change Rate of Change Slower From Expansion Slower Slower Faster Slower Faster Slower From Contraction Slower Slower Slower Slower From Contraction Faster Faster From Contraction Trend (Months) 26 1 4 18 9 11 21 2 1 16 4 3 3 1 21 4 1 2.5 Raw Materials Inventory At 50.6 index points, raw materials inventory grew after three consecutive months of decline. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, six recorded growth in raw materials inventories in the order: paper products; Cement; plastics & rubber products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; printing & related support activities and fabricated metal products. The computer & electronic products; nonmetallic mineral products; primary metal and transportation equipment sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the remaining six sub-sectors recorded lower in inventories in the order: paper products; Cement; plastics & rubber products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; printing & related support activities and fabricated metal products (Table 6). 6
8. Table 6 : Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index RAW MATERIALS INVENTORIES PMI Series Index March 49.1 Series Index April 50.6 61.1 50.0 49.2 43.3 47.2 50.5 53.1 48.9 43.2 40.5 45.8 40.9 50.0 43.6 54.1 68.8 54.5 42.3 47.0 50.0 57.7 47.4 56.2 54.7 50.0 40.0 66.7 44.7 50.0 47.3 53.0 50.0 Appliances & components Cement Chemical & pharmaceutical products Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment Fabricated metal products Food, beverage & tobacco products Furniture & related products Nonmetallic mineral products Paper products Petroleum & coal products Plastics & rubber products Primary metal Printing & related support activities Textile, apparel, leather & footwear Transportation equipment Percentage Rate Point of Trend Change Direction Change (Months) 1.5 Growing From Contraction 1 -6.6 Growing Slower 5 -7.7 Declining From No Change 1 -2.2 Declining Faster 3 6.7 No Change From Contraction 1 10.5 Growing From Contraction 1 -3.1 Declining From Expansion 1 3.1 Growing Faster 7 5.8 Growing From Contraction 1 6.8 No Change From Contraction 1 -0.5 Declining Faster 4 20.9 Growing From Contraction 1 3.8 Declining Slower 4 0.0 No Change Flat 2 3.7 Declining Slower 17 -1.1 Growing Slower 2 -18.8 No Change From Expansion 1 3.0 Non-Manufacturing PMI Report After 16 months of decline, non-manufacturing is at the brink of growth, business activity and new orders growing from contraction; employment level and raw materials inventories declining at a slower rate in April 2017 Business Activity Employment Level 50 point 54.0 New orders Inventory 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 Fig 4: Trends of the major sub-indices 7 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb '17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Jul '16 Jun '16 May '16 Apr '16 Mar '16 Feb '16 38.0
9. The composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector at 49 .5 after sixteenth consecutive months of decline is at the brink of growth. At 49.5 index points when compared to the 47.1 points in March 2017, this sector is indicating a vanishing decline. Of the eighteen non-manufacturing sub-sectors, eight recorded declines in the following order: management of companies; construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; arts, entertainment & recreation; wholesale trade; health care & social assistance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles and accommodation & food services. The remaining ten sub-sectors: agriculture; utilities; educational services; transportation & warehousing; finance & insurance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real estate, rental & leasing; information & communication; public administration and water supply, sewage & waste management reported growth in the review month (Table 7 and Fig. 5). Table 7: Non-Manufacturing at a Glance Index Composite PMI \2 Business Activity Level of new orders/customers/incoming business Level of employment in your organisation Raw materials/WIP Inventories Average price of yourInputs (volume weighted) Level of outstanding business/ Backlog of work New Exports orders Imports Finished goods Inventories (sentiments) Series Index March 47.1 49.8 46.4 44.0 48.0 62.1 42.7 33.1 34.5 40.6 Series Index April 49.5 53.3 50.5 45.5 48.6 63.1 41.6 29.2 33.2 41.1 Percentage Point Change 2.4 3.5 4.1 1.5 0.6 1.0 -1.1 -3.9 -1.3 0.5 45.5 53.5 46.2 38.0 55.5 52.7 51.1 49.9 46.5 42.5 41.5 56.6 41.9 43.6 51.3 46.6 53.3 45.8 48.3 61.6 43.2 38.0 58.1 53.4 55.1 46.7 52.4 33.3 42.9 52.1 52.9 47.2 55.4 60.1 51.7 45.8 2.8 8.1 -3.0 0.0 2.6 0.7 4.0 -3.2 5.9 -9.2 1.4 -4.5 11.0 3.6 4.1 13.5 -1.6 0.0 Direction Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Rate of Change Slower From Contraction From Contraction Slower Slower Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Trend (Months) 16 1 1 16 3 18 34 34 34 34 Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Growing Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Growing Growing Growing Declining Slower Faster Faster Flat Faster Faster Faster Faster From Contraction Faster Slower Slower From Contraction Slower Faster From Contraction Slower Flat 16 11 3 23 5 2 2 11 1 2 26 2 1 16 2 1 2 16 Non-manufacturing sub-sectors Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade \2 The composite PMI is a simple average of the following diffusion (series) indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and inventories. 8
10. Overall Non-manufacturing PMI 60 .0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 Jul '14 Aug '14 Sept '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 Purchasing Managers' Index 50 point Fig. 5: Trend of Non-Manufacturing PMI 3.1 Business Activity The business activity index rose to 53.3 points in April 2017, from its level of 49.8 points in March 2017. Twelve sub-sectors recorded growth in the following order: agriculture; utilities; transportation & warehousing; educational services; finance & insurance; water supply, sewage & waste management; public administration; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real estate, rental & leasing; information & communication; health care & social assistance and repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles. The professional, scientific, & technical services subsector remained unchanged, while the remaining five sub-sectors recorded growth in the order: management of companies; arts, entertainment & recreation; construction; wholesale trade and accommodation & food services (Table 8). Table 8: Business Activity at a Glance Index BUSINESS ACTIVITY PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index March 49.8 47.8 63.2 43.1 40.4 60.7 53.2 49.0 55.0 48.2 30.0 44.1 64.7 46.1 43.7 50.0 50.0 60.5 53.2 Series Index April 53.3 48.6 70.4 39.4 41.0 61.3 57.8 60.0 53.1 56.0 33.3 50.0 58.3 57.8 51.5 61.3 64.0 59.1 47.8 9 Percentage Point Change 3.5 0.8 7.2 -3.7 0.6 0.6 4.6 11.0 -1.9 7.8 3.3 5.9 -6.4 11.7 7.8 11.3 14.0 -1.4 -5.4 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 16 Growing Faster 11 Declining Faster 3 Declining Slower 14 Growing Faster 5 Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 4 No Change From Contraction 1 Growing Slower 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From No Change 1 Growing From No Change 1 Growing Slower 2 Declining From Expansion 1
11. 3 .2 New Orders At 50.5 points, the new orders index grew in April 2017, after fifteen consecutive months of decline. Of the eighteen sub-sectors, eleven grew in the following order: agriculture; utilities; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; finance & insurance; water supply, sewage & waste management; information & communication; transportation & warehousing; educational services; public administration; real estate, rental & leasing and repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles. The remaining seven sub-sectors recorded decline in the order: construction; management of companies; professional, scientific, & technical services; health care & social assistance; wholesale trade; accommodation & food services and arts, entertainment & recreation (Table 9). Table 9: New Orders at a Glance Index NEW ORDERS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index March 46.4 45.6 53.5 48.6 33.0 52.7 57.4 55.2 52.2 40.4 35.0 37.5 61.8 43.7 44.4 51.4 43.3 50.0 42.1 Series Index April 50.5 46.3 68.5 47.0 32.1 55.1 59.8 58.0 44.4 56.0 41.7 43.5 54.2 53.1 51.5 55.7 68.0 56.8 45.7 Percentage Point Change 4.1 0.7 15.0 -1.6 -0.9 2.4 2.4 2.8 -7.8 15.6 6.7 6.0 -7.6 9.4 7.1 4.3 24.7 6.8 3.6 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 16 Growing Faster 11 Declining Faster 3 Declining Faster 23 Growing Faster 5 Growing Faster 2 Growing Faster 2 Declining From Expansion 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 2 Declining Slower 18 Growing Slower 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing Faster 2 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From No Change 1 Declining Slower 4 3.3 Employment Level The employment level Index for the non-manufacturing sector stood at 45.5 points indicating persistence in slowing decline with recovery mainly driven by; utilities and IT. Thirteen sub-sectors recorded declines in employment level in the following order: management of companies; construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; water supply, sewage & waste management; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; arts, entertainment & recreation; health care & social assistance; wholesale trade; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; accommodation & food services; information & communication; finance & insurance and real estate, rental & leasing. The public administration and agriculture sub-sectors remained unchanged, while the utilities; transportation & warehousing and educational services sub-sectors recorded increase in employment level (Table 10). 10
12. Table 10 : Employment at a Glance Index EMPLOYMENT PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index March 44.0 41.7 47.4 47.2 31.9 50.9 44.7 46.9 43.9 49.1 40.0 41.4 50.0 37.5 43.7 52.9 39.3 55.3 42.4 Series Index April 45.5 47.2 50.0 42.4 37.2 51.3 46.1 49.0 42.6 47.4 33.3 37.9 50.0 49.2 41.9 52.8 54.0 40.9 44.3 Percentage Point Change 1.5 5.5 2.6 -4.8 5.3 0.4 1.4 2.1 -1.3 -1.7 -6.7 -3.5 0.0 11.7 -1.8 -0.1 14.7 -14.4 1.9 Direction Declining Declining No Change Declining Declining Growing Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining Declining No Change Declining Declining Growing Growing Declining Declining Rate of Trend Change (Months) Slower 16 Slower 11 From Contraction 1 Faster 3 Slower 23 Faster 4 Slower 11 Slower 15 Faster 16 Faster 26 Faster 2 Faster 15 Flat 2 Slower 17 Faster 13 Slower 2 From Contraction 1 From Expansion 1 Slower 17 3.4 Inventories/Work in Progress Non-manufacturing inventories/work in progress index in April 2017 stood at 48.6 points from the 48.0 points in the previous month, indicating a slower decline from its level in the previous month. Eight sub-sectors recorded lower inventories in the following order: management of companies; professional, scientific, & technical services; construction; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles; arts, entertainment & recreation; wholesale trade; public administration and health care & social assistance. The electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; information & communication and water supply, sewage & waste management subsectors remain unchanged, while educational services; agriculture; utilities; finance & insurance; transportation & warehousing; real estate, rental & leasing and accommodation & food services subsectors recorded higher inventories in April 2017 (Table 11). Table 11: Raw Materials Inventories at a Glance Index INVENTORY/WORK IN PROGRESS PMI Accommodation & food services Agriculture Arts, entertainment & recreation Construction Educational services Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Finance & insurance Health care & social assistance Information & communication Management of companies Professional, scientific, & technical services Public administration Real estate, rental & leasing Repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles Transportation & warehousing Utilities Water supply, sewage & waste management Wholesale/Retail trade Series Index March 48.0 46.9 50.0 45.8 46.7 57.5 55.4 53.4 48.3 48.2 65.0 43.2 50.0 40.5 42.8 50.7 53.8 47.4 45.6 Series Index April 48.6 50.9 57.4 43.9 41.9 64.9 50.0 53.3 46.9 50.0 25.0 40.2 45.8 51.6 43.8 51.9 54.5 50.0 45.6 11 Percentage Point Change 0.6 4.0 7.4 -1.9 -4.8 7.4 -5.4 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 -40.0 -3.0 -4.2 11.1 1.0 1.2 0.7 2.6 0.0 Rate of Trend Direction Change (Months) Declining Slower 3 Growing From Contraction 1 Growing From No Change 1 Declining Faster 3 Declining Faster 26 Growing Faster 2 No Change From Expansion 1 Growing Slower 2 Declining Faster 5 No ChangeFrom Contraction 1 Declining From Expansion 1 Declining Faster 5 Declining From No Change 1 Growing From Contraction 1 Declining Slower 6 Growing Faster 5 Growing Faster 5 No ChangeFrom Contraction 1 Declining Flat 3
13. APPENDICES : HISTORICAL DATA Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 51.3 49.7 54.0 51.9 52.2 49.8 50.2 53.0 48.9 52.0 49.4 49.5 47.8 48.4 50.7 49.2 51.2 51.2 47.2 45.5 45.9 43.7 45.8 41.9 44.1 42.1 42.5 44.1 46.0 52.0 48.2 44.6 47.7 51.1 55.2 49.7 57.4 55.1 55.1 51.2 50.4 57.4 52.1 56.9 53.6 51.5 49.7 51.0 54.9 52.0 55.4 55.4 49.3 45.0 46.6 42.7 47.9 40.2 43.0 40.5 40.9 42.3 46.9 57.6 51.3 45.2 50.8 58.5 53.0 51.2 57.6 55.3 56.9 51.1 49.3 54.7 48.9 54.1 49.7 50.8 46.2 50.1 52.1 49.3 52.9 52.7 46.2 43.0 43.0 41.8 42.7 37.0 42.4 37.5 38.7 40.3 45.1 51.8 47.9 44.0 45.6 50.1 46.4 49.9 46.4 46.2 45.1 49.7 51.3 43.8 47.8 42.7 44.6 42.0 43.5 43.1 46.8 42.7 47.3 45.2 48.4 52.8 50.6 52.2 50.2 55.6 51.7 57.4 55.6 57.7 53.2 47.9 48.5 48.7 51.3 47.5 46.9 45.9 49.3 46.8 47.2 46.8 51.1 50.0 46.4 48.9 48.0 48.5 48.4 44.8 47.1 48.4 45.5 47.5 46.0 45.0 45.5 42.0 45.7 42.2 43.8 40.4 41.2 42.2 40.6 48.6 45.3 41.7 43.6 46.6 52.9 52.2 55.7 52.4 51.7 48.4 49.3 56.4 47.1 53.9 48.0 53.3 52.6 52.4 49.0 53.1 52.2 52.7 45.8 44.7 47.1 43.0 43.9 39.4 41.4 40.0 40.9 42.9 46.1 51.6 46.3 44.8 49.1 50.6 12 43.6 40.8 45.4 45.9 46.0 44.6 47.7 50.1 38.1 43.0 36.9 40.0 40.1 37.6 40.3 39.8 38.7 38.0 38.3 39.2 37.8 36.3 38.7 35.3 38.5 31.2 26.3 37.3 39.6 37.2 33.1 38.4 38.5 37.7 50.6 48.6 49.3 49.7 53.3 53.6 48.7 54.0 50.1 50.2 51.6 49.2 47.9 49.0 47.5 49.1 46.2 48.6 52.6 53.0 56.4 63.9 59.6 61.4 60.8 64.1 66.5 65.2 65.7 70.4 67.9 69.9 65.0 65.1 54.2 52.7 52.9 56.7 60.9 56.3 55.6 60.9 56.4 54.4 59.0 56.7 55.0 53.1 52.8 53.8 52.8 56.5 56.7 57.0 60.9 67.8 68.4 70.0 64.2 69.8 74.0 71.8 71.2 73.2 71.4 70.9 68.3 69.2 53.3 50.8 55.1 57.1 56.0 51.4 52.5 58.0 48.7 53.0 50.5 53.0 51.7 50.2 51.0 48.3 51.0 54.5 49.9 42.8 41.6 43.6 42.7 39.0 41.6 39.9 42.8 43.5 48.1 52.7 48.4 47.7 50.1 45.1 46.4 45.4 46.9 50.5 50.0 47.5 48.8 50.7 44.5 48.3 44.9 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.5 45.6 46.0 45.1 44.2 38.5 41.2 42.6 37.0 40.2 41.9 38.3 37.1 39.2 45.2 45.3 43.6 43.2 43.6 40.0 Stock of Finished Goods Backlog of Work Quantity of Purchases Input Prices Output Prices New Export Orders Raw Materials Inventory Employment Level Supplier Delivery Time New Orders Production Level COMPOSITE PMI Month MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 47.2 48.6 49.8 51.7 47.6 51.1 45.5 53.7 46.5 48.7 45.6 49.3 45.3 46.1 43.2 46.8 46.9 46.4 46.3 44.4 43.8 41.6 40.1 36.0 39.0 38.3 42.4 39.9 42.0 48.5 46.9 43.9 45.1 46.4
14. Jul '14 Aug '14 Sep '14 Oct '14 Nov '14 Dec '14 Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar '15 Apr '15 May '15 Jun '15 Jul '15 Aug '15 Sep '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '15 Jan 16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 55.0 58.9 54.7 57.3 59.6 53.8 50.6 54.0 48.6 53.7 51.7 50.1 50.0 50.7 50.1 51.9 49.6 53.4 46.9 44.3 45.4 44.3 44.3 42.3 43.2 43.7 41.0 43.4 42.8 47.1 49.4 44.5 47.1 49.5 58.9 60.6 57.1 59.6 62.5 56.2 48.8 54.2 49.7 58.2 52.9 51.5 50.4 52.3 52.1 54.2 52.9 55.9 46.2 43.7 46.3 44.2 44.3 40.2 42.8 43.6 39.9 43.0 43.0 48.2 50.6 45.4 49.8 53.3 55.9 59.8 57.5 59.4 63.6 56.0 50.4 54.7 51.1 56.8 53.1 50.3 51.4 52.4 52.3 54.1 51.6 56.4 46.4 42.0 44.7 42.2 41.3 39.6 42.3 42.0 40.0 42.7 42.3 46.9 49.4 44.9 46.4 50.5 50.2 58.3 49.9 53.9 57.9 51.4 51.2 52.5 45.6 49.1 49.7 46.4 48.6 48.0 47.0 49.3 45.6 50.0 47.0 44.5 43.9 43.3 44.6 42.5 41.9 41.4 40.3 41.5 40.2 43.8 45.6 42.6 44.0 45.5 55.2 57.0 54.3 56.4 54.6 51.5 51.9 54.5 48.0 50.8 51.1 52.0 49.5 50.1 49.1 50.1 48.5 51.5 47.9 47.1 46.5 47.6 46.9 47.1 45.8 47.7 43.9 46.4 45.5 49.5 52.0 44.9 48.0 48.6 13 54.0 56.1 52.8 53.3 57.3 54.5 48.8 54.1 49.8 51.5 51.3 48.5 50.3 50.7 48.7 49.9 51.8 54.7 57.3 53.6 58.5 62.2 62.9 60.7 60.4 60.8 63.1 65.3 66.8 64.0 65.6 65.4 62.1 63.1 46.2 47.0 46.2 46.4 49.6 45.6 43.2 46.0 46.5 46.6 44.1 44.4 43.8 43.0 44.5 43.9 42.8 47.0 44.3 39.6 43.8 43.1 38.1 39.6 38.6 39.4 39.6 40.9 42.4 41.5 43.6 42.9 42.7 41.6 44.0 46.1 40.7 40.8 45.2 43.6 41.1 43.0 39.9 41.1 37.2 36.9 39.1 39.8 42.9 40.3 37.7 41.9 36.2 37.5 34.3 31.8 33.2 33.2 30.0 32.9 28.6 32.8 30.8 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.1 29.2 47.3 46.4 45.2 44.9 47.5 46.5 44.3 44.6 44.2 44.5 39.1 40.4 39.2 38.3 41.4 42.4 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.6 35.0 33.1 35.0 34.7 32.7 34.2 30.2 33.8 34.0 35.5 36.1 34.5 34.5 33.2 Inventories (sentiment) Imports New Exports Orders Backlog of Work Average Input Price Inventory Employmen t Level New orders Business Activity COMPOSITE PMI Month NON-MANUFACTURING PMI DATA SERIES 47.8 48.1 47.6 43.8 48.1 43.8 47.0 46.1 40.2 43.0 44.3 42.7 44.0 44.0 45.9 45.2 41.8 47.2 41.6 43.6 41.1 39.8 40.3 38.5 38.0 39.4 37.9 38.7 41.1 41.6 45.5 38.7 40.6 41.1