Central Bank of Malaysia: Monthly Highlights - October 2017

Transcription

1. SIARAN AKHBAR Ref . No.: 11/17/19 EMBARGO: Not for publication or broadcast before 1500 hours on Thursday, 30 November 2017 MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS – OCTOBER 2017 Inflation decreased in October • Headline inflation declined to 3.7% in October due mainly to lower transport inflation at 12.1% during the month (September: 15.8%). - Although RON95 petrol averaged only slightly lower at RM2.18 per litre in October (September: RM2.19 per litre), the higher base of the RON95 price in October 2016 (RM1.80 per litre) compared to September 2016 (RM1.70 per litre) resulted in the lower inflation for transport category. • Core inflation was also lower at 2.3% during the month (September: 2.4%). - The slower inflation for core items was broad-based with lower pervasiveness observed across most categories. Financial markets remained stable in October amid uncertainties in the US • The Malaysian financial market was relatively stable in October 2017 as investors traded cautiously leading up to the announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairman and the 2018 U.S. budget resolution, which paves the way towards tax reforms. • This resulted in relatively small movements in the ringgit and equity markets. • The bond market, however, experienced some upward pressure in yields amid non-resident outflows of RM2.2 billion. Sustained net financing growth continued to support economic activity • Net financing growth was sustained at 6.5% in October (September: 6.6%). The growth of net outstanding issuances of corporate bonds increased to 12.0% (September: 10.9%), while the growth of outstanding loans of the banking system moderated to 4.6% (September: 5.2%).
2. • The moderation in loan growth was due to the business sector (October: 4.1%; September: 5.8%), in part driven by the stronger growth in loan repayments relative to disbursements. Net IIP continued to be positive in 3Q 2017 • Malaysia’s IIP recorded a net asset position of RM21.5 billion, equivalent to 1.6% of GNI as at end-September 2017 (end-June 2017: RM42.3 billion; 3.2% of GNI). • Malaysia’s net asset position supports resilience to a variety of shocks, including potential outflows associated with external liabilities. Banking system capitalisation remained strong • Financial institutions are well-positioned to withstand any adverse macroeconomic and financial shocks, with excess capital buffers of RM135 billion as at October 2017. • More than 75% of total capital continued to be represented by high quality loss absorbing capital in the form of CET-1 capital (i.e. equity, retained earnings and reserves). Bank Negara Malaysia 30 November 2017 Diterbitkan oleh: Jabatan Komunikasi Strategik, Tingkat 14, Blok B, Bangunan Bank Negara Malaysia, Jalan Dato’ Onn, 50480 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Telefon: +60(3) 2698 8044 Faksimili: +60(3) 2693 6919 W eb: www.bnm.gov.my
3. Monthly Highlights October 2017 Inflation decreased in October Headline , core and transport inflation %, yoy 6 %, yoy 30 Core Inflation Headline Inflation Transport (RHS) 4 20 Oct 17 3.7% 10 2 0 0 Oct-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Aug-16 -10 Sep 17 4.3% Core inflation pervasiveness month-on-month Number of items 100 Unchanged Between 0 to 0.3% 50 Higher than 0.3% 0 Decline between 0 to -0.5% Decline lower than -0.5% Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 50 • Headline inflation declined to 3.7% in October due mainly to lower transport inflation at 12.1% during the month (September: 15.8%). – Although RON95 petrol averaged only slightly lower at RM2.18 per litre in October (September: RM2.19 per litre), the higher base of the RON95 price in October 2016 (RM1.80 per litre) compared to September 2016 (RM1.70 per litre) resulted in the lower inflation for transport category. • Core inflation was also lower at 2.3% during the month (September: 2.4%). – The slower inflation for core items was broad-based with lower pervasiveness observed across most categories. Source: DOSM and staff estimate Financial markets remained stable in October amid uncertainties in the US Financial Markets Performance in October Oct-17 6.7 • The Malaysian financial market was relatively stable in October 2017 as investors traded cautiously leading up to the announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairman and the 2018 U.S. budget resolution, which paves the way towards tax reforms. 6.5 • This resulted in relatively small movements in the ringgit and equity markets. YTD 2017 3-year MGS (bps) -4.7 -0.4 Equity (% change) • The bond market, however, experienced some upward pressure in yields amid non-resident outflows of RM2.2 billion. -0.1 Ringgit (% change) 6.0 -6 -2 2 6 10 Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bursa Malaysia 1
4. Monthly Highlights October 2017 Sustained net financing growth continued to support economic activity Net Financing through Banking System Loans and Corporate Bonds Loans Corporate Bonds Net Financing %, yoy 15 Oct 17 6.5% 10 • Net financing growth was sustained at 6.5% in October (September: 6.6%). The growth of net outstanding issuances of corporate bonds increased to 12.0% (September: 10.9%), while the growth of outstanding loans of the banking system moderated to 4.6% (September: 5.2%). 5 Sep 17 6.6% Oct-17 Sep-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 0 • The moderation in loan growth was due to the business sector (October: 4.1%; September: 5.8%), in part driven by the stronger growth in loan repayments relative to disbursements. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Net IIP continued to be positive in 3Q 2017 Malaysia’s Net International Investment Position (IIP) RM billion Net IIP % of GNI 40 % of GNI (RHS) 120 70 20 21.5 20 1.6 -30 0 -20 -80 -130 3Q17 2Q17 2016 1Q17 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 -40 • Malaysia’s IIP recorded a net asset position of RM21.5 billion, equivalent to 1.6% of GNI as at end-September 2017 (end-June 2017: RM42.3 billion; 3.2% of GNI). • Malaysia’s net asset position supports resilience to a variety of shocks, including potential outflows associated with external liabilities. Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Banking system capitalisation remained strong Capital Adequacy Ratios % 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 Oct 17 17.1% Jul 17 83.5% Oct 17 14.1% Oct 17 Aug 17 Jun 17 Apr 17 Feb 17 Dec 16 Oct 16 Aug 16 Jun 16 Apr 16 Feb 16 Dec 15 Oct 15 Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio Tier 1 Capital Ratio Total Capital Ratio Oct 17 13.3% • Financial institutions are well-positioned to withstand any adverse macroeconomic and financial shocks, with excess capital buffers of RM135 billion as at October 2017. • More than 75% of total capital continued to be represented by high quality loss absorbing capital in the form of CET-1 capital (i.e. equity, retained earnings and reserves). Source: Bank Negara Malaysia 2