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Bangladesh: Major Economic Indicators - February 2017

IM Research
By IM Research
7 years ago
Bangladesh: Major Economic Indicators - February 2017

Ard, Islam, Mal, Provision, Reserves

Sukuk

Banking

International Trade

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  1. Volume 02 /2017 February 2017 Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update Monetary Policy Department BANGLADESH BANK
  2. Contents Page No . Executive summary 1-2 1. Monetary and credit developments 3 2. Reserve money developments 4 3. CPI and inflation 5 4. 5. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks Financial sector prices a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds b) Interest rate spread 6 6. Capital market developments 9 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit 10 8. Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans b) Outstanding position of SME loans 11 11 9. Industrial production 12 10. Exports a) Annual exports b) Monthly exports c) Category-wise breakdown of exports Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding LCs c) Projected data on opening of import LCs & probable liabilities against BTB LCs 11. 7 8 13 13 14 15 16 16 12. Workers’ remittances 17 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks 17 14. Foreign aid 18 15. Exchange rate movements 19 16. Balance of payments 20 17. Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections b) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) c) Budget financing 21 22 23 Food situations 23 18. Appendix 24 -25 0
  3. Executive Summary 1 . Movement of monetary indicators Broad money (M2) grew by 13.83 percent (y-o-y) in December 2016 which was higher Both broad money(M2) and private sector credit growth picked up in December 2016 than 13.76 percent in the preceding month and also higher than 13.07 percent as compared to the same month of the previous year. Net foreign assets and net domestic assets registered 18.12 percent and 12.41 percent growth respectively in December 2016. Private sector credit recorded 15.55 percent growth in December 2016 which was higher than 15.01 percent of November 2016 and also higher than 14.19 percent in the same month of the previous year. 2. Inflation scenario 12-month average inflation eased while point to point inflation went up in January 2017 The twelve-month average inflation pulled down to 5.44 percent in January 2017 from 5.51 percent in December 2016 mainly due to decrease in non-food inflation. On the other hand, the point-to-point general inflation increased to 5.15 percent in January 2016 from 5.03 percent in December 2016. 3. State of the financial sector Interest rate spread widened marginally in December 2016 The spread between the weighted average interest rates on advances and deposits of all banks stood at 4.71 percent in December 2016 from 4.65 percent of the previous month. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market decreased to 3.48 percent up to 19 February 2017, as compared to 3.54 percent in January 2017. 4. External sector performance Export growth slowed down during the first seven months of FY17 Bangladesh earned USD 20.11 billion export proceeds during July-January, 2016-17 Import growth increased during the first half of FY17 Custom based import during July-December, 2016 increased by 8.18 percent and stood which was 4.36 percent higher than USD 19.27 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to EPB data. at USD 22.61 billion compared to USD 20.90 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-December, 2016 increased by 9.30 percent as compared to July-December, 2015 and stood at USD 23.02 billion. From the sectoral distribution of LCs opening during the mentioned period, it is revealed that LCs opening for the industrial raw materials is the highest at 35.00 percent of total LCs opening followed by consumer goods of 13.25 percent. 1
  4. External sector performance (contd.) An upturn is observed in workers’ remittances inflow in January 2017 Receipts of workers’ remittance in January 2017 increased by 5.29 percent and stood at USD 1.01 billion as compared to December 2016 while it decreased by 12.27 percent as compared to the same month of the previous year. Total receipts of workers’ remittances decreased by 16.92 percent during July-January, 2016-17 as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year and stood at USD 7.18 billion. Current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 0.79 billion during July-December, Current account balance has been continuing on deficit 2016 due mainly to a significant trade deficit and lower income from services, primary from the third month and secondary income accounts compared to July-December, 2015. of FY17 Both total and net reciept of foreign aid decreased marginally during the first half of FY17. The total foreign aid disbursements during July-December, 2016 decreased by USD 0.21 billion or 13.94 percent and stood at USD 1.32 billion as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. Net receipt of foreign aid also decreased by USD 0.21 billion and stood at USD 0.88 billion during July-December, 2016 as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. Forex reserves stood above USD 32 billion as on February 20, 2017 The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 31.72 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.58 billion) as of end January 2017, as compared to USD 32.10 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.98 billion) as of end December 2016. As per the latest available data, gross foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 32.08 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.89 billion) as of 20 February 2017. 5. Developments in the fiscal sector Tax revenue collection picked up remarkably during the first four months of FY17. NBR Tax Revenue collection stood at Taka 49874.68 crore during July-October, 2016 which was 17.77 percent higher than Taka 42350.67 crore during July-October, 2015. 6. Credit disbursement and industrial production The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 19.85 percent and 28.78 percent respectively during July-January, 2016-17 as compared to July-January, 2015-16. Agricultural credit, the general index of industrial production, SME and industrial term loans have increased during the period under review. Outstanding SME loans provided by banks and non-bank financial institutions at the end of September 2016 increased by 16.14 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. Disbursement of industrial term loans during the first quarter of FY17 increased by 2.72 percent and stood at Taka 13044.95 crore and recovery increased by 12.20 percent as compared to the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 268.18 during July-October 2016 recorded an increase of 8.82 percent from the index of 246.44 during July-October 2015. Note: The information furnished in this executive summary and the subsequent pages are provisional and subject to revision. 2
  5. 1 . Monetary and credit developments (Taka in Crore) Outstanding stock Changes in outstanding stock Particulars June 2015 June 2016 R December 2016 P June 2016 over June 2015 December 2016 over June 2016 December 2016 over December 2015 December 2015 over June 2015 December 2015 over December 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A. Net Foreign Assets of banking system 189228.80 233135.60 247248.30 43906.80 (+23.20) 14112.70 (+6.05) 37930.90 (+18.12) 20088.60 (+10.62) 42015.50 (+25.11) B. Net Domestic Assets of banking system 598385.30 683242.30 706805.50 84857.00 (+14.18) 23563.20 (+3.45) 78008.70 (+12.41) 30411.50 (+5.08) 54850.40 (+9.56) a) Domestic credit 701526.50 801280.00 832038.00 99753.50 (+14.22) 30758.00 (+3.84) 91393.60 (+12.34) 39117.90 (+5.58) 66909.80 (+9.93) Public sector 126927.10 130270.70 115018.50 3343.60 (+2.63) -15252.20 (-11.71) -5119.00 (-4.26) -6789.60 (-5.35) -10189.90 (-7.82) 110257.30 114219.60 98638.80 3962.30 (+3.59) -15580.80 (-13.64) -4849.80 (-4.69) -6768.70 (-6.14) -8602.00 (-7.67) 16669.80 16051.10 16379.70 -618.70 (-3.71) 328.60 (+2.05) -269.20 (-1.62) -20.90 (-0.13) -1587.90 (-8.71) Private sector 574599.40 671009.30 717019.50 96409.90 (+16.78) 46010.20 (+6.86) 96512.60 (+15.55) 45907.50 (+7.99) 77099.70 (+14.19) b) Other items (net) -103141.20 -118037.70 -125232.50 -14896.50 -7194.80 -13384.90 -8706.40 -12059.40 787614.10 916377.90 954053.80 128763.80 37675.90 115939.60 50500.10 96865.90 (+16.35) (+4.11) (+13.83) (+6.41) (+13.07) Government (net) Other Public C. Broad money (A+B) i) Currency outside banks 87940.80 122074.50 113153.40 34133.70 (+38.81) -8921.10 (-7.31) 20608.10 (+22.27) 4604.50 (+5.24) 10595.10 (+12.93) ii) Deposits 699673.30 794303.40 840900.40 94630.10 (+13.52) 46597.00 (+5.87) 95331.50 (+12.79) 45895.60 (+6.56) 86270.80 (+13.09) a) Demand deposits 72873.40 90356.20 91292.90 17482.80 (+23.99) 936.70 (+1.04) 15518.90 (+20.48) 2900.60 (+3.98) 9691.50 (+14.67) b) Time deposits 626799.90 703947.20 749607.50 77147.30 (+12.31) 45660.30 (+6.49) 79812.60 (+11.92) 42995.00 (+6.86) 76579.30 (+12.91) Source: Statistics Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P=provisional, R= Revised. Broad money The broad money recorded an increase of Taka 115939.60 crore or 13.83 percent at the end of December 2016 against the increase of Taka 96865.90 crore or 13.07 percent at the end of December 2015. Of the sources of broad money, net domestic assets (NDA) rose by Taka 78008.70 crore or 12.41 percent and net foreign assets (NFA) rose by Taka 37930.90 crore or 18.12 percent at the end of December 2016 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Domestic credit The domestic credit recorded an increase of Taka 91393.60 crore or 12.34 percent at the end of December 2016 against the increase of Taka 66909.80 crore or 9.93 percent at the end of December 2015. Credit to the private sector recorded a growth of 15.55 percent while credit to the public sector decreased by 4.26 percent in December 2016 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Trends of broad money growth (year-on-year) 17.0 Trends of domestic credit growth (year-on-year) 2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 14.0 2016-17 16.0 Percentage 15.0 9.93 3 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Jul. 9.0 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. 12.0 Aug. 11.0 10.0 13.07 12.34 12.0 Sep. 13.0 13.83 12.14 Aug. 13.76 14.0 Jul. Percentage 13.0
  6. 2 . Reserve money developments (Taka in crore) Outstanding stock Changes in outstanding stock Particulars June 2015 June, 2016 R December, 2016 P June 2016 over June 2015 December 2016 over June 2016 December 2016 December 2015 December 2015 over over over December 2015 June 2015 December 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank 177401.30 218904.10 235538.80 41502.80 (+23.39) 16634.70 (+7.60) 39030.80 (+19.86) 19106.70 (+10.77) 40548.80 (+26.00) Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank -28918.80 -25702.80 -44040.60 3216.00 (+11.12) -18337.80 (-71.35) -7747.40 (-21.35) -7374.40 (-25.50) -19478.40 (-115.84) Claims on Govt.(net) 810.50 13373.70 4872.50 12563.20 -8501.20 8194.00 -4132.00 3663.40 Claims on other public 2160.80 2015.50 1926.20 (+1550.06) -145.30 (-6.72) (-63.57) -89.30 (-4.43) (-246.70) -183.80 (-8.71) #REF! -50.80 (-2.35) (-52.45) 2.40 (+0.11) Claims on DMBs 5659.20 6024.40 4885.00 Other items (net) -37549.30 -47116.40 -55724.30 365.20 (+6.45) -9567.10 -1139.40 (-18.91) -8607.90 -1061.30 (-17.85) -14696.30 287.10 (+5.07) -3478.70 -3381.40 (-36.25) -19762.80 Reserve money 148482.50 193201.30 191498.20 44718.80 (+30.12) -1703.10 (-0.88) 31283.40 (+19.53) 11732.30 (+7.90) 21070.40 (+15.14) Currency Issued 98153.90 132305.20 123356.50 34151.30 (+34.79) -8948.70 (-6.76) 22045.80 (+21.76) 3156.80 (+3.22) 10772.40 (+11.90) i) Currency outside banks 87940.80 122074.50 113153.40 34133.70 (+38.81) -8921.10 (-7.31) 20608.10 (+22.27) 4604.50 (+5.24) 10595.10 (+12.93) ii) Cash in tills 10213.10 10230.70 10203.10 50328.60 60896.10 68141.70 17.60 (+0.17) 10567.50 (+21.00) -27.60 (-0.27) 7245.60 (+11.90) 1437.70 (+16.40) 9237.60 (+15.68) -1447.70 (-14.17) 8575.50 (+17.04) 177.30 (+2.06) 10298.00 (+21.19) 2323.89 5986.55 9455.83 3662.66 3469.28 2204.37 4927.57 3345.89 5.30 4.74 4.98 -0.56 0.24 -0.25 -0.07 -0.10 Deposits held with BB Of which: Excess reserves Reserve money multiplier Source: Statistics Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P=provisional, R= Revised. Reserve Money Trends of reserve money growth (year-on-year) Reserve money recorded an increase of Taka 31283.40 crore or 19.53 percent in December 2016 which increased 35.0 by Taka 21070.40 crore or 15.14 percent in December 30.0 4 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. which was 4.74 in June 2016. Dec. 5.0 Nov. Reserve money multiplier stood at 4.98 in December 2016 15.14 10.0 Oct. as compared to December 2015. 19.53 15.0 Sep. by Taka 7747.40 crore or 21.35 percent in December 2016 18.57 20.0 Aug. crore or 19.86 percent while net domestic assets decreased 2016-17 25.0 Jul. Bank’s net foreign assets increased by Taka 39030.80 Percentage 2015. Of the sources of reserve money, Bangladesh 2015-16
  7. 3 . CPI and Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Rate of Inflation at National Level (Base : FY2005-06=100) Twelve-Month Average Basis General Index Inflation Food Index Inflation Point to Point Basis Non-food Index General Inflation Food Non-food Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation 2014-15 December 201.44 6.99 217.13 7.91 181.31 5.60 207.78 6.11 224.29 5.86 186.62 6.48 January 202.43 6.87 218.21 7.68 182.20 5.64 210.12 6.04 226.61 6.07 188.98 6.01 February 203.45 6.76 219.30 7.45 183.13 5.71 210.73 6.14 227.26 6.11 189.58 6.20 March 204.49 6.66 220.44 7.24 184.04 5.78 211.31 6.27 228.12 6.37 189.77 6.12 April 205.54 6.57 221.60 7.03 184.95 5.85 211.51 6.32 228.39 6.48 189.86 6.08 May 206.55 6.46 222.69 6.81 185.86 5.93 208.77 6.19 223.37 6.23 190.06 6.14 June 207.58 6.41 223.80 6.68 186.79 5.99 209.17 6.25 223.43 6.32 190.88 6.15 2015-16 December 213.91 6.19 230.28 6.05 192.94 6.41 220.45 6.10 236.57 5.48 199.78 7.05 January 214.98 6.20 231.09 5.90 194.31 6.65 222.87 6.07 236.42 4.33 205.50 8.74 February 215.96 6.15 231.81 5.70 195.65 6.84 222.58 5.62 235.82 3.77 205.62 8.46 March 216.96 6.10 232.55 5.49 196.97 7.03 223.25 5.65 236.99 3.89 205.64 8.36 April 217.95 6.04 233.28 5.27 198.29 7.21 223.37 5.61 237.15 3.84 205.70 8.34 May 218.89 5.98 233.99 5.07 199.55 7.36 220.15 5.45 231.86 3.81 205.13 7.92 June 219.86 5.92 234.77 4.90 200.74 7.47 220.74 5.53 232.87 4.23 205.19 7.50 2016-17 July 220.82 5.84 235.60 4.76 201.86 7.48 224.13 5.40 237.69 4.35 206.75 6.98 August 221.78 5.77 236.43 4.62 202.99 7.53 226.57 5.37 241.89 4.30 206.93 7.00 September 222.78 5.71 237.43 4.56 204.00 7.48 230.27 5.53 247.88 5.10 207.69 6.19 October 223.80 5.66 238.53 4.53 204.91 7.38 231.85 5.57 250.64 5.56 207.75 5.58 November 224.78 5.60 239.60 4.51 205.79 7.27 231.18 5.38 249.41 5.41 207.81 5.33 December 225.71 5.51 240.66 4.51 206.54 7.05 231.53 5.03 249.29 5.38 208.76 4.49 January 226.66 5.44 241.94 4.70 207.07 6.57 234.34 5.15 251.86 6.53 211.88 3.10 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. The twelve month average general inflation decreased to 5.44 percent in January 2017, continuing a declining trend that goes below the lowest in more than the last 10 years. Although the average food inflation increased to 4.70 percent but the average non-food inflation decreased to 6.57 percent in January 2017 from December 2016. 6.4 12 month average 6.2 Point to point 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5 Jan.17 Dec.16 Nov.16 Oct.16 Sep.16 Aug.16 Jul.16 Jun.16 May.16 Apr.16 Mar.16 4.9 Feb.16 5.0 Jan.16 Percentage However, the point to point general inflation increased to 5.15 percent in January 2017 from 5.03 percent in December 2016, mainly due to increase of food inflation. Food inflation stood at 6.53 percent and non-food inflation stood at 3.10 percent in January 2017 as compared to 5.38 percent and 4.49 percent respectively in December 2016. CPI(Base:FY2005-06=100) Inflation
  8. 4 . Liquidity position of the scheduled banks (In crore Taka) As of end June, 2016 Bank Group 1 As of end December 2016 P Total Liquid Assets Cash in tills + balances with Sonali Bank Ltd. 2 3 Balances with Bangladesh Bank1/ Minimum Required Unencumbered approved securities Total Liquid Assets Liquid Assets 2/ Local Currency Foreign Currency 4a 4b 5 6=(3+4a+4b+5) 7 CRR * Excess Reserve (un-invested cash) State-owned Banks 108038.80 1909.40 16031.24 939.38 253.75 95619.04 114752.81 47739.53 Private Banks (Other than Islamic) 1539.88 7372.31 26280.99 1666.57 3496.03 70602.53 109418.43 78273.86 Islamic Banks 103584.56 2287.18 11178.34 6441.18 711.47 10131.40 30749.57 20636.94 Foreign Banks 29090.97 502.34 2530.39 820.61 3000.42 14452.73 21306.49 7508.51 Specialised Banks 19972.54 0.00 1587.31 0.00 6.32 0.00 1593.63 1587.31 Total 262226.74 12071.22 57608.27 9867.72 7468.00 190805.70 277820.92 155746.14 (+4.34) (+20.74) (+3.55) (+2.69) (+68.68) Source : Department of Offsite Supervision. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional, R= Revised. *CRR is calculated @ 6.5% of total demand and time liabilities. 1/ Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency = CRR + Excess Reserve. 2/ Minimum required liquid assets is the sum of CRR and SLR. Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks stood at Taka 277820.92 crore as of end December 2016 which was Taka 262226.74 crore at the end of June 2016. The minimum required liquid assets of the scheduled banks was Taka 155746.14 crore as of end December 2016. Scheduled banks’ holding of liquid assets as of end December 2016 in the form of cash in tills & balances with Sonali Bank Ltd., CRR, excess reserves, FC clearing account balances with Bangladesh Bank and un-encumbered approved securities are 4.34 percent, 20.74 percent, 3.55 percent, 2.69 percent, and 68.68 percent respectively of total liquid assets. Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets (as of end December 2016) Balances with BB (Foreign Currency), 2.69% Liquid assets & minimum required liquidity 3250 Unencumbered approved securities, 68.68% Liquid assets Minimum Required Liquid Assets 2950 2650 billion taka 2350 Excess Reserve (Uninvested Cash), 3.55% 2050 1750 1450 1150 850 550 Dec.16 Oct.16 Nov.16 Sep.16 Aug.16 Jul.16 Jun.16 Apr.16 May.16 Feb.16 Mar.16 Jan.16 Oct.15 6 Dec.15 250 Nov.15 CRR, 20.74% Cash in tills+balances with SB, 4.34%
  9. 5 . Financial sector prices: a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds1/: Treasury Bills BGTB BB Bill Repo* 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 30-Day Call Reverse Repo* Money Rate 2015-16 July 5.33 6.28 6.62 7.62 8.56 9.75 10.03 10.35 5.25 7.25 5.25 5.67 August 5.41 5.91 6.34 7.11 7.57 8.39 8.57 8.93 5.25 7.25 5.25 5.63 September 5.33 5.58 6.15 6.41 7.31 8.18 8.43 8.98 5.25 7.25 5.25 5.71 October November 5.17 5.54 5.67 6.41 7.35 7.96 7.83 8.20 5.01 7.25 5.25 5.63 2.95 3.74 4.06 4.19 5.08 6.55 8.09 8.47 4.03 7.25 5.25 3.85 December 2.94 3.32 4.11 4.86 5.04 7.23 7.87 8.97 3.38 7.25 5.25 3.69 January 2.81 4.10 4.36 5.81 6.44 7.38 7.44 7.64 2.90 6.75 4.75 3.90 February 2.69 ---- ---- 4.79 5.89 5.95 7.18 7.58 2.88 6.75 4.75 3.73 March 2.87 ---- 0.00 4.97 5.92 6.64 7.57 7.97 2.90 6.75 4.75 3.68 April 3.46 4.51 4.93 5.25 6.16 6.91 7.79 8.19 2.95 6.75 4.75 3.68 May 3.55 4.45 5.04 5.52 6.21 7.02 7.84 8.28 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.67 June 3.96 4.67 5.17 5.97 6.51 7.29 7.97 8.41 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.70 4.72 3.48 3.26 3.12 2.99 2.98 2.97 5.31 ---3.99 3.35 ---3.23 3.14 5.88 ---4.25 4.00 ---3.76 3.53 6.50 5.99 5.31 5.19 4.39 ---4.23 7.05 6.53 ---6.00 5.72 5.91 5.79 7.46 7.10 ---6.89 6.77 6.32 6.65 7.97 7.80 7.69 7.53 7.46 7.64 7.47 8.44 8.24 8.17 7.99 7.91 7.89 7.78 2.93 2.96 2.96 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 3.68 3.65 3.64 3.52 3.56 3.62 3.54 2.91 ---- ---- 5.02 ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.48 R 2016-17 July August September October November December January @ February Source: MPD, DMD Bangladesh Bank . 1/ Weighted average rate. ---- = there was no auction. @ = upto 19 th February, 2017. * The Repo and Reverse Repo rates are re-fixed at 6.75% and 4.75% respectively, with effect from 14.01.2016. The weighted average yield up to 19 February, 2017 on 91-Day Treasury Bills decreased to 2.91 percent as compared to 2.97 percent in January 2017. Yields on 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills in January, 2017 also fell to 3.14 percent and 3.53 percent respectively as compared to that of December 2016. The weighted average yield on 2-Year BGTB increased to 5.02 percent in February 2017 compared to that of January 2017. While, the weighted average yield on 10-Year BGTB in January 2016 increased to 6.65 percent from the yield of December 2016. The weighted average yield on 5-Year, 15-Year and 20-Year BGTB decreased to 5.79 percent, 7.47 percent and 7.78 percent respectively in January 2017 compared to that of December 2016. The weighted average yield on 30-Day BB Bill up to 19 February, 2017 remained the same as January 2017. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market fell to 3.48 percent up to 19 February, 2017 as compared to 3.54 percent in January 2017. u 7 Feb.17 Jan.17 Dec.16 364-Day Nov.16 Oct.16 Sep.16 182-Day Aug.16 Feb.17 … Jan.17 Dec.16 Nov.16 Oct. 16 Sep.16 Aug.16 Jul. 16 Jun.16 May16 Apr.16 3.0 Mar.16 3.8 Jul.16 4.5 Jun.16 5.3 May16 6.0 91-Day Apr.16 6.8 Yield on Treasury Bills Mar.16 Call Money Rate W.ave. yield in percent 7.5 Reverse Repo* 7.3 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 Feb.16 Repo* Feb.16 W. average rate in percent Repo, Reverse Repo & Call Money Rate
  10. b ) Interest rate spread: Sector-wise break down of Interest Rate Spread in the banks All sectors SME Agriculture Large Industries (excluding SME ) All Banks Interest rate on deposits Non-Bank FIs' Services Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread advances advances advances advances advances advances Interest rate on deposits Interest rate on Spread advances 2015-16 July 6.78 11.57 4.79 12.67 5.89 11.27 4.49 9.81 3.03 11.37 4.59 11.97 5.19 10.54 14.70 4.16 August 6.74 11.51 4.77 12.58 5.84 11.22 4.48 9.73 2.99 11.31 4.57 11.96 5.22 10.41 14.52 4.11 September 6.66 11.48 4.82 12.49 5.83 11.20 4.54 9.77 3.11 11.11 4.45 11.36 4.70 10.34 14.45 4.11 October 6.58 11.35 4.77 12.45 5.87 11.04 4.46 9.71 3.13 10.94 4.36 11.50 4.92 10.16 14.32 4.16 November 6.46 11.27 4.81 12.23 5.77 10.98 4.52 9.66 3.20 10.91 4.45 11.44 4.98 10.02 14.16 4.14 December 6.34 11.18 4.84 12.33 5.99 10.86 4.52 9.63 3.29 10.78 4.44 11.10 4.76 9.87 14.03 4.16 January 6.21 11.05 4.84 12.36 6.15 10.49 4.28 9.56 3.35 10.55 4.34 11.04 4.83 9.72 13.90 4.18 February 6.10 10.91 4.81 12.02 5.92 10.39 4.29 9.58 3.48 10.41 4.31 10.92 4.82 9.55 13.72 4.17 March 5.92 10.78 4.86 11.74 5.82 10.51 4.59 9.59 3.67 10.19 4.27 10.80 4.88 9.34 13.51 4.17 April 5.77 10.64 4.87 11.64 5.87 10.36 4.59 9.54 3.77 10.24 4.47 10.80 5.03 9.16 13.27 4.11 May June 5.67 10.57 4.90 11.57 5.90 10.29 4.62 9.49 3.82 9.88 4.21 10.52 4.85 9.01 13.16 4.15 5.54 10.39 4.85 11.48 5.94 10.08 4.54 9.50 3.96 9.80 4.26 10.39 4.85 8.95 13.07 4.12 July 5.48 10.32 4.84 11.35 5.87 10.03 4.55 9.43 3.95 9.77 4.29 10.32 4.84 8.90 12.89 3.99 August 5.44 10.24 4.80 11.21 5.77 9.97 4.53 9.61 4.17 9.75 4.31 10.29 4.85 8.84 12.80 3.96 September 5.39 10.11 4.72 11.04 5.65 9.90 4.51 9.70 4.31 9.62 4.23 10.07 4.68 8.71 12.68 3.97 October 5.33 10.03 4.70 10.90 5.57 9.79 4.46 9.57 4.24 9.46 4.13 10.02 4.69 8.61 12.73 4.12 November 5.29 9.94 4.65 10.86 5.57 9.68 4.39 9.34 4.05 9.33 4.04 10.03 4.74 8.53 12.35 3.82 December 5.22 9.93 4.71 10.79 5.57 9.68 4.46 9.31 4.09 9.32 4.10 9.95 4.73 8.47 12.32 3.85 2016-17 Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank . The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks widened and stood at 4.71 percent in December, 2016 from 4.65 percent in November, 2016. The sectors for which spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks widened in December, 2016 are: Agricultural sector (4.09 percent), large industries sector (4.10 percent) and all other sectors excluding SME (4.46 percent). The spread of all banks narrowed marginally in December, 2016 only for the service sector (4.73 percent). The spread of SME sector in December, 2016 remains same as the previous month at 5.57 percent. The spread of NBFIs widened to 3.85 percent in December, 2016 from 3.82 percent in November 2016. The weighted average interest rate on deposits decreased to 5.22 percent and 8.47 percent respectively for all banks and NBFIs in December, 2016 which was 5.29 percent and 8.47 percent in November, 2016. Institution wise breakdown of spread 5.2 NBFIs 5.0 Banks SME 6.7 Agriculture Large Industries Services 6.2 4.2 8 Dec. 16 Nov. 16 Oct. 16 Sep. 16 Aug 16 Jul. 16 Jun. 16 Dec. 16 Nov. 16 Oct. 16 Sep. 16 Aug 16 Jul. 16 Jun. 16 May. 16 Apr. 16 Mar. 16 Feb. 16 2.7 Jan. 16 3.6 Dec. 15 3.2 May. 16 3.7 3.8 Apr. 16 4.0 4.7 Mar. 16 4.2 5.2 Feb. 16 4.4 5.7 Jan. 16 4.6 Dec. 15 W. Ave. rate in percent 4.8 W. Ave. rate in percent Sector-wise breakdown of interest rate spread 7.2
  11. 6 . Capital market developments: Calender Year Annual capital market developments (DSE) (Taka in crore ) General Index / Enlisted issues Issued Capital Market DSE (Incl. Mutual Turnover during and Debentures Capitalisation Broad Index Funds/Deb.) the Year 2010 445 66436.00 347250.20 400991.28 8290.41 2011 501 87890.50 261673.00 156055.63 5257.61 2012 515 94987.60 240356.00 100108.49 4219.31 2013 529 99978.50 264779.00 95269.21 4266.55 2014 546 105492.60 325925.00 118852.15 4864.96 2015 559 110608.10 315976.00 103139.86 4629.64 Monthly capital market developments (DSE) Enlisted issues (Taka in crore) DSE Broad Index (Incl. Mutual Issued capital Market Turnover during Funds/Deb.) and debentures capitalisation the month (DSEX) January,16 562 110860.70 315307.00 11349.63 4540.89 February,16 562 110982.70 314350.00 8642.15 4511.97 March,16 560 111163.60 303642.00 7997.27 4357.54 April,16 558 111557.40 299985.00 7504.74 4195.70 May,16 558 112116.00 310875.00 8142.22 4419.39 June,16 559 112741.00 318574.93 8138.30 4507.58 July,16 559 113000.40 320736.90 6573.62 4525.35 August,16 558 113039.20 319256.00 9629.30 4526.58 September,16 559 113138.80 328190.90 8689.38 4695.19 October,16 559 113449.00 323633.80 10560.50 4592.18 November,16 559 113900.40 332881.40 14149.83 4801.24 December,16 560 114530.00 341244.10 17780.21 5036.05 Janaury,17 560 114693.00 366811.50 34232.02 5468.34 End Month Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of January Trends in market capitalisation and indices of DSE 3800 5500 Capitalisation in billion taka (LHS) DSEX (RHS) 2017 stood significantly higher at 5468.34 compared to 3600 that of end December 2016. The total market 3400 5000 capitalization of all shares and debentures of the listed 3200 4750 securities at the end of January 2017 also stood higher 5250 4500 3000 4250 2800 4000 at Taka 366811.50 crore from Taka 341244.10 crore at 2600 the end of December 2016. 2400 3500 2200 3250 2000 3000 9 Jan.17 Dec.16 Oct.16 Nov.16 Sep.16 Jul.16 Aug.16 Jun.16 Apr.16 May.16 Feb.16 Mar.16 Jan.16 Dec.15 Nov.15 3750
  12. 7 . Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit Disbursement Recovery 3600 945.31 893.78 770.17 711.63 August 933.15 1083.93 850.00 886.91 3000 September 1238.48 1228.38 1242.68 1205.65 2700 October 1644.19 1475.02 1261.23 1242.04 2400 November 2133.42 1718.80 780.97 835.62 December 2114.37 1787.99 3099.32 2740.63 January 2013.73 11022.65 (+19.85) 1655.57 9843.48 (+13.40) 1192.92 9197.29 (+19.11) 1057.60 8680.08 (+5.66) 600 Recovery 78.70 107.43 112.53 142.74 184.67 164.94 178.51 109.42 123.79 147.22 165.82 122.72 122.25 137.92 163.41 247.61 233.90 121.69 184.06 211.93 1136.06 (+28.78) 168.17 971.57 (+6.28) 130.54 882.16 (+15.01) 115.29 914.16 (+7.93) January July-January Jun. 86.74 105.92 May 51.87 73.48 Apr. 110.69 August September October November December Mar. July 300 Feb. Disbursement R Jan. Disbursement Recovery 2015-16 1500 Dec. 2016-17 1800 Jul. Month 2100 900 (Taka in crore) P 2016-17 1200 Non-farm rural credit disbursement 270 2015-16 250 2016-17 230 210 190 Programmed level for disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit was Tk.17550.00 crore for FY17. In crore taka b. Non-farm rural credit In crore taka July July-January 2015-16 3300 Nov. Disbursement Recovery Agricultural credit disbursement 2015-16R Oct. 2016-17 Sep. Month (Taka in crore) P Aug. a. Agricultural credit 170 150 130 110 May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. Jun. 90 The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit 70 increased by 19.85 percent and 28.78 percent respectively during 50 30 July-January, 2016-17 compared to that of July-January, 201516. The banks disbursed a total of Taka 121.59 billion to both the sectors. The recovery from the agriculture sector and non-farm rural credit increased by 13.40 percent and 6.28 percent respectively during July-January 2016-17 compared to the same period of the preceding year. The position of overdue agricultural credit as percentage of total outstanding improved as it has decreased from 19.42 percent at the end of January 2016 to 18.65 percent at the end of January 2017. Overdue and outstanding credit in agricultural secor (Taka in crore) 2016-17 End Month January P Overdue Outstanding 6785.75 (+7.20) 36388.97 (+11.62) 2015-16 Overdue as % of outstanding 18.65 R Overdue Outstanding 6330.16 (-15.19) 32601.40 (+7.12) Source: Agricultural Credit Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional, R= Revised. 10 Overdue as % of outstanding 19.42
  13. 8 . Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans Yearly (Tk. in crore) Recovery Disbursement Period disbursement of total LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total industrial term loans during July- FY 2013-14 29046.19 9585.93 3679.20 42311.32 28999.63 9423.48 3383.58 41806.69 September, 2016 increased by FY 2014-15 45468.67 9689.37 4625.66 59783.70 32801.39 9897.35 4842.07 47540.81 2.72 percent and stood at Taka FY2015-16 Quarterly The July-September 9492.55 2112.21 1094.92 12699.68 7905.36 2012.77 1154.23 11072.36 13044.95 crore as compared to October-December 13575.32 2237.30 2006.15 17818.78 8203.00 1949.37 1793.16 11945.52 Taka 12699.68 crore during July- January-March 14263.71 2506.26 1494.63 18264.60 9021.12 2029.25 1386.38 12436.75 April-June 11921.17 2493.47 2341.00 16755.64 9087.54 2718.03 965.07 12770.65 8757.30 2393.42 1272.31 12423.03 September, 2015. The recovery of industrial term loans also FY2016-17 July-September End Period September, 2015 September, 2016 9929.23 1977.24 1138.48 13044.95 increased by 12.20 percent and stood at Taka 12423.03 crore Outstanding Overdue during LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total 9912.70 4801.99 1061.89 15776.58 93889.70 21896.97 7697.09 123483.76 (+10.56) (+21.93) (+13.80) (+12.78) 13840.23 5779.51 1373.76 20993.50 (+12.23) (+22.31) (+15.82) (+14.21) #REF! 113120.59 25908.88 8686.27 147715.75 #REF! Source: SME & Special Programmes Department. July-September, 2016 against Taka 11072.36 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate overdue as % of outstanding. LSI=Large Scale Industries, MSI=Medium Scale Industries, SSCI= Small Scale & Cottage Industries. Outstanding amount of industrial term loans at the end of September, 2016 stood at Taka 147715.75 crore which is 19.62 percent higher than the outstanding amount of September, 2015. b) Outstanding position of SME loans The total SME loans by the banks and non-bank financial institutions increased by Taka 22328.65 crore or 16.14 percent and stood at Taka 160659.39 crore at the end of September, 2016 as compared to Taka 138330.74 crore at the end of September, 2015. The increase of different category-wise institution of SME loans at the end of September, 2016 are 21.07 percent in stateowned banks, 14.65 percent in private banks, 6.02 percent in foreign banks, 13.23 percent in specialized banks and 27.51 percent in non-bank financial institutions as compared to that of September, 2015. SME loans as percentage of total loans stood at 23.53 percent at the end of September, 2016 as compared to 22.74 percent of September, 2015. (Tk. in crore) Banks/NBFIs Quarter Ending September, 2015 Private Banks Foreign Specialised Banks Banks Total Loans 112465.72 408056.18 23943.04 SME Loans 24518.29 105881.68 1911.97 (21.80) (25.95) (7.99) Non-Bank Fin. Ins. Total 21111.88 42613.19 608190.01 846.25 5172.55 138330.74 (4.01) (12.14) (22.74) 21377.47 44847.83 629463.30 974.84 (4.56) 5452.61 (12.16) 148792.06 (23.64) 21377.47 46806.86 645455.07 969.93 (4.54) 5680.29 (12.14) 152195.74 (23.58) 110629.20 428209.81 24398.99 December, 2015 SME Loans 29048.70 (26.26) 111428.54 (26.02) Total Loans 112456.56 440554.99 24259.19 March, 2016 SME Loans 28831.04 (25.64) 114851.15 (26.07) Total Loans 116836.68 465050.21 25881.09 22251.27 49309.20 June, 2016 SME Loans 29540.90 (25.28) 120890.72 (26.00) 1971.17 (7.62) 1699.58 (7.64) 6391.11 (12.96) 679328.45 160493.49 (23.63) Total Loans 119061.10 469024.57 25649.95 22251.27 46914.05 682900.94 September, 2016 SME Loans 29685.20 (24.93) 121393.48 (25.88) 2027.01 (7.90) 958.23 (4.31) 6595.47 (14.06) 160659.39 (23.53) 21.07 14.65 6.02 13.23 27.51 16.14 % changes of SME loans at the end of September, 2016 over September, 2015 1887.37 (7.74) 1863.33 (7.68) Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Note:- Figures in brackets indicate SME loans as percentage of total loans. Institution-wise sharing of SME loans (September, 2016) Foreign Banks, 1.26% Specialised Banks, 0.60% The percentage share of SME loans from institutions to total SME loan as of end State Owned Banks Total Loans The revised target for disbursement of SME loans during JanuaryDecember, 2016 is Taka 113503.43 crore. different categories of banking and financial Types of Loans Private Banks, 75.56% September, 2016 is shown in a pie chart. 11 Non-Bank Financial Institutions, 4.11% State Owned Banks, 18.48%
  14. 9 . Industrial production Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry (Base: 2005-06=100) Index Average Index Percentage change Oct '16 Jul-Oct '16 over over Oct '15 Jul-Oct '15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Jul-Oct 2015-16 Jul-Oct 2016-17 100.00% 235.05 267.35 246.44 268.18 13.74 8.82 Wearing apparel 34.84% 260.14 314.45 297.48 321.25 20.88 7.99 Textile 14.07% 128.34 139.31 122.11 134.10 8.55 9.82 Food products Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical 10.84% 8.23% 403.41 297.74 369.60 352.81 395.57 311.94 367.68 369.68 -8.38 18.50 -7.05 18.51 Non-metalic mineral products 7.12% 233.42 313.27 216.86 282.87 34.21 30.44 Leather and related products 4.40% 106.43 158.27 115.13 154.05 48.71 33.81 Chemicals and chemical products 3.67% 89.81 85.97 83.21 92.12 -4.28 10.71 Basic metals 3.15% 163.19 161.26 186.84 174.47 -1.18 -6.62 Tobacco products 2.92% 145.00 136.66 131.52 131.32 -5.75 -0.15 Fabricated metal products except machinery 2.32% 187.34 219.01 190.23 222.81 16.91 17.13 Others* 8.44% 234.63 266.80 229.51 264.34 13.71 15.18 Major Industry Group Weight General Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, *Others means residual items. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 268.18 during JulyOctober 2016 and recorded an increase of 8.82 percent over July-October 2015. 340 320 Monthly Indices The indices those recorded increases during July-October 2016, compared to July-October 2015 are: leather and related products (33.81%), non-metalic mineral products (30.44%), pharmaceuticals & medicinal chemical (18.51%), fabricated metal products except machinery (17.13%), chemicals and chemical products (10.71%), textile (9.82%) and wearing apparel (7.99%). On the other hand, the indices those recorded declining trends during July-October 2016, compared to July-October 2015 are food products (7.05%), basic metals (6.62%) and tobacco products (0.15%). 300 280 240 244.54 Oct/16 Sep/16 Aug/16 Jul/16 Jun/16 May/16 Apr/16 Mar/16 Feb/16 Jan/16 Dec/15 Nov/15 Oct/15 Sep/15 477.04 478.84 465.86 435.95 415.77 431.21 235.05 The general index of small scale manufacturing industry during the first quarter (July-September, 2016) of FY17 increased by 0.38 percent and stood at 478.84 from the index of 477.04 during the fourth quarter (April-June, 2016) 380 of FY16, it also increased by 9.84 percent as 340 compared to the same quarter of FY16. 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Indices 420 238.7 220 540 460 267.35 260 Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries (Base:1995-96=100) 500 Quantum index of medium & large scale manufacturing industries (Base:2005-06=100) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 12
  15. 10 . Exports A. Annual exports (US$ in million) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 22928.22 24301.90 27027.36 30186.62 31208.94 34257.18 (+41.49) (+5.99) (+11.22) (+11.69) (+3.39) (+9.77) B. Monthly exports Month 2015-16 2014-15 July 2625.93 2982.74 August 2758.41 2159.50 September October November December January February March April May June 2374.65 2371.50 2749.34 3204.07 3185.63 2854.22 2831.42 2682.05 3026.99 3592.97 2552.86 1957.55 2417.43 2844.13 2885.15 2512.42 2592.97 2398.50 2841.13 3064.56 34257.18 (+9.77) 31208.94 (+3.39) July-June 2016-17 2015-16 July Month 2534.31 2625.93 August 3303.50 2758.41 September 2241.01 2374.65 October 2712.83 2899.32 3107.13 2371.50 2749.34 3204.07 3312.04 20110.14 3185.63 19269.53 (+4.36) (+8.26) November December January July-January Export target is USD 37000.00 million for FY 2016-17. Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). P=Provisional; R=Revised. Note: Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Merchandise export in January 2017 increased by USD 0.20 billion or 6.59 percent to USD 3.31 billion from USD 3.11 billion in December 2016, according to EPB data which was 2.76 percent lower than the target of 3.41 billion for the said month. Total merchandise export during July-January 2016-17 increased by USD 0.84 billion or 4.36 percent to USD 20.11 billion compared to USD 19.27 billion during July-January 2015-16. Actual performance of merchandise export shipments during July-January 2016-17 was 4.43 percent lower than the target of USD 21.04 billion. Export Growth (year-on-year) 30 2015-16 25 2016-17 2016-17 2015-16 3550 20 3300 (Million USD) 15 10 5 0 -5 3050 2800 2550 Latest available data on category-wise breakdown of exports are shown in the next page. 13 Jun. May Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jul. Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. 2050 Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. -15 Apr. 2300 -10 Aug. Percentage Export performance: Value Trends 3800
  16. C . Category-wise breakdown of exports (US$ In million ) Particulars Changes during FY17 over FY16 FY17 FY16 (Up to January'17) (Up to January'16) In amount In percent 1. Raw Jute 115.79 83.43 +32.36 +38.79 2. Jute goods (excl.carpet) 448.19 411.09 +37.10 +9.02 2.21 1.29 +0.92 +71.32 4. Frozen and Live fish 329.15 331.81 -2.66 -0.80 5. 164.70 161.91 +2.79 +1.72 6. Woven garments 8352.93 8159.53 +193.40 +2.37 7. 8060.30 7601.75 +458.55 +6.03 8. Chemical products 82.36 72.37 +9.99 +13.80 9. Agricultural products* 79.30 99.43 -20.13 -20.25 10. Engin.& Electric goods 282.92 317.09 -34.17 -10.78 11. Others** 2192.29 2029.83 +162.46 +8.00 TOTAL 20110.14 19269.53 +840.61 +4.36 3. Tea Leather Knitwear Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Note:- @ Export volume is currently not avaiable, --- = Not available, * = Includes vegetables, fruits & tobacco, **Others = residual items. Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that, during July-January, 2016-17 exports of tea (71.32%), raw jute (38.79%), chemical products (13.80%), jute goods (9.02%), knitwear (6.03%), woven garments (2.37%) and leather (1.72%) experienced a positive growth compared to that of the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, agricultural products (20.25%), engineering & electric goods (10.78%) and frozen food (0.80%) experienced a negative growth during July-January, 2016-17 compared to the same period of the previous year. Category-wise share of total exports (July-January, 2016-17) Jute goods (excl.carpet), 2.23% Frozen food, 1.64% Knitwear, 40.08% Category-wise share of total exports (July-January, 2015-16) Others, 14.52% Jute goods (excl.carpet), 2.13% Frozen food, 1.72% Others, 14.35% Knitwear, 39.45% Woven garments, 41.54% Woven garments, 42.34% 14
  17. 11 . Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening (US$ in million) Month ………………… ………....FY Custom based import (c&f) Import LCs settlement Import LCs opening 2013-14 40616.40 (+8.92) 2012-13 37289.80 (+0.82) 2013-14 37188.84 (+14.93) 2012-13 32358.52 (-7.05) 2013-14 41818.56 (+16.29) 2012-13 35961.05 (-2.90) Month 2015-16R 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 July 2856.80 2556.10 3437.71 2964.69 3011.64 3655.65 August 3415.70 3458.80 3502.55 3461.55 3631.73 3475.02 September 3197.20 3733.00 2985.45 3369.85 3135.37 3704.30 October 3866.90 3304.00 3268.85 3145.15 3232.57 3142.60 November 3664.60 3059.20 3407.74 3259.60 4468.22 3760.76 December 3898.30 3444.80 3701.52 3390.64 3585.21 3547.28 January 3577.20 3268.80 3351.55 3037.47 3387.16 3501.47 February 3342.50 3202.00 3200.16 2807.87 3125.37 3257.30 March 3632.40 3404.10 3365.75 3351.97 3988.71 4262.45 April 3527.20 3835.50 3154.28 3179.16 3546.88 3518.94 May 4241.80 3899.20 3285.88 3205.56 3599.03 3682.60 June July-June 3816.00 43036.60 (+5.73) 3538.20 40703.70 (+0.21) 3414.76 40076.20 (+4.22) 3281.73 38455.24 (+3.41) 4623.44 43335.33 (+0.62) 3560.39 43068.76 (+2.99) Month 2016-17 P 2015-16 2016-17 P 2015-16 July 2941.50 2856.80 2804.36 3437.71 3097.80 3011.64 August 3796.60 3415.70 4353.94 3502.55 4203.03 3631.73 September October November December July-December 3531.30 4124.70 4221.60 3994.10 22609.80 (+8.18) 3197.20 3866.90 3664.60 3898.30 20899.50 (+6.87) 4451.61 3530.65 3882.78 3565.46 22588.82 (+11.25) 2985.45 3268.84 3407.74 3701.53 20303.82 (+3.64) 3471.54 4119.23 3801.95 4329.31 23022.85 (+9.30) 3135.37 3232.57 4468.22 3585.21 21064.74 (-1.04) P 2015-16 R 2016-17 Source: National Board of Revenue (NBR), Foreign Exchange Operations Department of Bangladesh Bank , NA=Not Available. Note:- 1. Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. R = Data has been revised upto September 2015 as per rivision by NBR. P = Provisional. R= Revised. Custom based import during July-December, 2016 stood higher by USD 1.71 billion or 8.18 percent and stood at USD 22.61 billion against USD 20.90 billion during July-December, 2015. 2016-17 30 20 10 0 -10 15 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Oct. Sep. Aug. -30 Nov. -20 Jul. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-December, 2016 increased by 9.30 percent and stood at USD 23.02 billion compared to USD 21.06 billion during July-December, 2015. 2015-16 40 Percentage Settlement of import LCs during July-December, 2016 increased by 11.25 percent and stood at USD 22.59 billion against USD 20.30 billion during July-December, 2015. Growth of import (year-on-year)
  18. b ) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs Sector-wise comparative statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-December, 2016 and July-December, 2015 are shown below: (US$ in million) July-December, 2016 Sectors / Commodities Fresh LCs opening P Settlement Outstanding of LCs LCs at the end period Percentage changes during July-December, 2016 July-December, 2015 over July-December, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding opening of LCs opening of LCs LCs at the LCs at the end period end period A. Consumer goods 3050.65 2388.18 2109.38 2322.33 2333.09 1587.72 31.36 2.36 B. Intermediate goods 2010.77 1830.70 1736.06 1706.63 1666.98 1496.13 17.82 9.82 16.04 C. Industrial raw materials 8058.32 8042.38 5632.24 8215.54 7665.38 7669.86 -1.91 4.92 -26.57 D. Capital machinery 2448.19 2867.67 5325.86 2396.56 1687.73 5661.48 2.15 69.91 -5.93 E. Machinery for misc. inds. 2497.06 2346.12 1879.89 2017.34 2190.41 2021.14 23.78 7.11 -6.99 F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. 1262.29 1157.28 621.41 1180.98 1439.88 762.04 6.89 -19.63 -18.45 G. Others 3695.58 3956.49 3191.06 3225.36 3320.34 3463.17 14.58 19.16 -7.86 Total 23022.85 22588.82 20495.90 21064.74 20303.82 22661.54 9.30 11.25 -9.56 3381.06 3188.37 3.20 6.76 -29.23 of which back to back 3757.93 3609.76 2256.37 3641.42 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department, Bangladesh Bank. P=Provisional. 32.86 The developments of each sectoral share in total LCs opening during July-December, 2016 and July-December, 2015 are showing in the following pie charts. Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-December, 2015) Sectoral sharing in LC Opening (July-December, 2016) Others , 16.05% Petroleum & petro.products , 5.48% Machinery for misc. industry, 10.85% Capital machinery, 10.63% Consumer goods, 13.25% Intermediate goods, 8.73% Petroleum & petro.products , 5.61% Consumer goods, 11.02% Intermediate goods, 8.10% Others , 15.31% Machinery for misc. industry, 9.58% Industrial raw materials, 35.00% Industrial raw materials, 39.00% Capital machinery, 11.38% Sector-wise detailed statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-December, 2016 and July-December, 2015 are given as Appendix. C) Projected data on opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorised dealer banks (In million USD) Month Opening of import LCs Probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs February'17 3615.04 1332.38 March'17 3712.22 1381.51 April'17 3615.00 1332.23 February-April, 2017 10942.26 4046.12 Source: All authorized dealer banks, compiled by Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Bangladesh Bank. Data on projection of opening of import LCs and probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs sent by the authorised dealer banks are USD 10.94 billion and USD 4.05 billion respectively during February-April, 2017. This liability is 12.61 percent of foreign currency reserves as on 20 February, 2017. 16
  19. 12 . Workers’ remittances Annual and monthly trends of remittances ` (US$ in million) 2013-14 2014-15 14461.14 14228.32 15316.91 (+12.60) (-1.61) (+7.65) Month 2015-16 2014-15 February March April May June 1136.27 1285.58 1191.15 1214.46 1465.88 1189.60 1338.31 1297.49 1321.77 1439.34 14931.16 15316.91 (-2.52) (+7.65) Month 2016-17P 2015-16R July 1005.51 1389.56 August 1183.60 1195.02 by 5.29 percent and stood at USD 1.01 billion as compared September 1056.64 1349.06 to December 2016. However, it decreased by 12.27 percent October 1010.97 1098.45 November 951.37 1142.48 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Total December 958.73 1312.62 receipts of workers’ remittance decreased by 16.92 percent January 1009.44 1150.63 July-January 7176.26 (-16.92) 8637.82 (-1.06) during July-January, 2016-17 and stood at USD 7.18 billion 2015-16 1500 2016-17 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. 900 Jul. July-June 1600 (Million USD) Annual Remittances Monthly Remittances Monthly trends of workers' remittances 2012-13 Receipt of workers’ remittances in January 2017 increased as compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year. Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year. P=Provisional; R = Revised. 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks (a) Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank(BB): The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 31.72 billion (with ACU liability USD 0.58 billion) as of end January 2017. This amount was sufficient to cover 8.4 months of import bills for Bangladesh. (b) Gross foreign exchange balances held by Commercial Banks(CBs): The gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks stood at USD 2.89 billion as of end January 2017 which was higher than that of USD 2.79 billion of end December 2016. It was also higher than the balance of USD 2.56 billion at the end January 2016. (US$ in million) 28265.93 23052.97 April 29106.26 24071.70 May 28802.90 23707.68 30168.22 25025.25 2016-17 2015-16 July 30039.29 25469.08 August September 31165.06 31385.87 26175.34 26379.04 October November December January 31895.31 31370.88 32092.19 31724.17 27058.39 26407.63 27493.31 27139.14 B. Outstanding June stock at the end Month / Year of the month R 7.9 23.0 7.6 21.0 7.3 19.0 17.0 7.0 FX reserve held by CBs 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20 Source : Accounts & Budgeting Department, Bangladesh Bank. 17 Jan.17 March 25.0 Dec.16 23031.52 Nov.16 28058.56 Oct.16 February 8.2 27.0 Sep.16 22042.30 Aug.16 2014-15 27139.14 8.5 29.0 Jul. 16 Month / Year 8.8 31.0 Jun. 16 2015-16 January 33.0 May. 16 (+63.40) Apr. 16 25025.25 (+40.44) Feb. 16 15315.23 (+47.77) Gross FX reserves in billion USD (LHS) Reserve covers months of import (RHS) 35.0 Mar. 16 15315.23 R FX reserves held by BB 2014-15 Jan. 16 A. Outstanding stock at the end of the year 2013-14 Dec. 15 2012-13
  20. 14 . Foreign aid (US$ in million) Net Food Project Total Payment Net Food Project Total Payment Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Aid Aid FY2015-16 Month Foreign FY2014-15 July 0.00 120.15 120.15 96.50 23.65 0.00 192.19 192.19 195.73 -3.54 August 0.00 132.02 132.02 97.50 34.52 0.00 192.07 192.07 41.38 150.69 September 6.46 223.76 230.22 44.03 186.19 9.64 216.03 225.67 85.84 139.83 October 0.00 258.48 258.48 69.19 189.29 0.00 155.11 155.11 68.62 86.49 November 0.00 192.17 192.17 75.79 116.38 0.00 230.72 230.72 79.62 151.10 December 6.15 599.50 605.65 69.90 535.75 10.08 648.81 658.89 67.11 591.79 January 0.00 216.23 216.23 82.12 134.11 0.00 240.23 240.23 73.08 167.14 February 0.00 242.96 242.96 40.50 202.46 0.00 94.39 94.39 42.45 51.93 March 12.56 556.94 569.50 77.26 492.24 5.20 327.97 333.17 78.87 254.30 April 0.00 120.71 120.71 80.59 40.12 0.00 160.38 160.38 67.09 93.29 May 0.00 248.82 248.82 69.30 179.52 0.00 243.90 243.90 66.83 177.07 June 6.74 506.32 513.06 64.53 448.53 12.60 362.94 375.54 38.32 337.22 July-June 31.91 3418.06 3449.97 867.20 2582.77 37.52 3064.74 3102.26 904.94 2197.32 (-14.95) (+11.53) (+11.21) (-4.17) (+17.54) (+22.49) (+6.09) (+6.27) (-16.92) (+20.06) FY2016-17 P Month FY2015-16 July 0.00 128.28 128.28 89.60 38.68 0.00 120.15 120.15 96.50 23.65 August 0.00 158.23 158.23 45.18 113.05 0.00 132.02 132.02 97.50 34.52 September 8.44 212.84 221.28 85.41 135.87 6.46 223.76 230.22 44.03 186.19 October 0.00 239.82 239.82 79.00 160.82 0.00 258.48 258.48 69.19 189.29 November 0.00 158.68 158.68 71.88 86.81 0.00 192.17 192.17 75.79 116.38 December 5.22 412.66 417.88 75.95 341.93 6.15 599.50 605.65 69.90 535.75 July-December 13.66 1310.51 1324.17 447.02 877.15 12.61 1526.08 1538.69 452.91 1085.78 (+8.33) (-14.13) (-13.94) (-1.30) (-19.21) (-36.05) (-6.66) (-7.01) (-15.86) (-2.74) July-December, 2016 decreased by USD 1810 Total Aid Net Aid 1660 0.21 billion or 13.94 percent and stood at 1538.69 1510 Source : Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance, P=Provisional; R = Revised Total foreign aid disbursements during After principle repayment of USD 0.45 billion, the net receipt of foreign aid stood at USD 0.88 billion during July-December, 2016 as compared to USD 1.09 billion of 1360 (Million USD) USD 1.32 billion. Foreign Aid 1324.17 1210 1060 910 1085.78 877.15 760 610 460 310 160 10 the same period of the previous year. July-December, 2016 18 July-December, 2015
  21. 15 . Exchange rate movements 2/: Month FY 2014-15 (Taka/USD) FY 2015-16 (Taka/USD) FY 2014-15 (Rupee/USD) FY 2015-16 (Rupee/USD) Month Avg. Month End Month Avg. Month End Month End Month End February 77.8000 77.8000 78.5517 78.4500 61.9395 68.6160 March 77.8000 77.8000 78.4130 78.4000 62.5908 66.3329 April 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 63.5780 66.5176 May 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 63.7615 67.2030 June 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 63.7549 67.6166 FY 2015-16 (Rupee/USD) Month End FY 2016-17 (Rupee/USD) Month End Month FY 2015-16 (Taka/USD) Month Avg. Month End FY 2016-17 (Taka/USD) Month Avg. Month End July 77.8007 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 64.0061 67.0340 August 77.8000 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 66.3062 66.9813 September 77.8008 77.8000 78.4000 78.4000 65.7418 66.7875 October 77.8215 77.9978 78.4010 78.4161 65.1515 66.8566 November 78.5274 78.9364 78.5417 78.7233 66.8148 68.5260 December 78.7794 78.5000 78.8030 78.7004 66.3260 68.1241 January 78.5008 78.5000 78.8573 79.0741 67.8763 67.8125 Source : Statistics Department & MPD. Note:- 2/ Exchange rate represents the mid-value of buying and selling rates. Bangladesh Taka has depreciated by 0.85 percent against US dollar at the end of January 2017 from its level of end June 2016. Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated by 0.29 percent against US dollar as of end January 2016 compared to its level of end June 2016. Graphical presenatation of exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) and Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar (USD) and BDT against the INR are shown below: 79.26 BDT/ USD 79.08 BDT against USD 78.90 78.72 78.54 78.36 78.18 69.00 INR /USD 68.50 INR against USD 68.00 67.50 67.00 66.50 66.00 1.19 BDT against INR 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 01-06-16 07-06-16 13-06-16 19-06-16 23-06-16 29-06-16 12-07-16 17-07-16 21-07-16 27-07-16 02-08-16 08-08-16 14-08-16 21-08-16 28-08-16 01-09-16 07-09-16 19-09-16 24-09-16 28-09-16 04-10-16 10-10-16 18-10-16 24-10-16 30-10-16 03-11-16 09-11-16 15-11-16 21-11-16 27-11-16 01-12-16 07-12-16 14-12-16 20-12-16 27-12-16 02-01-17 08-01-17 12-01-17 18-01-17 24-01-17 30-01-17 05-02-17 09-02-17 15-02-17 TK. /INR 1.18 19
  22. 16 . Balance of payments (BOP) (US$ in million) Particulars July-December, 2016P July-December, 2015R -4510 -3608 16410 15729 20920 19337 -1705 1824 -1379 1732 3529 3111 -1052 -888 31 38 1083 187 6474 27 6447 6073 926 191 7727 33 7694 7375 Current account balance -793 1852 Capital account 177 266 177 266 2696 779 864 782 184 184 1648 7 112 -10 1120 1294 447 435 -168 697 274 -103 171 -650 172 -375 -203 -287 75 -212 Errors and omissions 177 -458 Overall balance 2257 2439 Reserve assets -2257 -2439 -2257 -2439 2253 2709 -4 270 Trade balance Exports f.o.b(including EPZ) Imports f.o.b(including EPZ) Services Credit Debit Primary income Credit Debit Of which:Official interest payment Secondary income Official transfers Private transfers of which : Workers' remittances ( current a/c. portion) Capital transfers Financial account i) Foreign direct investment(net)* ii) Portfolio investment (net) of which : Workers' remittances ( financial a/c. portion) iii) Other investment(net) Medium and long-term (MLT) loans MLT amortization payments Other long-term loans (net) Other short-term loans (net) Trade credit (net) DMBs & NBDCs(net) Assets Liabilities Bangladesh Bank(net) Assets Liabilities Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Both of exports and imports are compiled on the basis of customs data. P=Provisional; R = Revised. * FDI is calculated as net, deducting disinvestment, repayments of loans & loss. Trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 4.51 billion during July-December, 2016 as compared to the deficit of USD 3.61 billion during July-December, 2015. Current account balance continued with deficit during July-December 2016. Despite the current account deficit, financial account surplus of USD 2.70 billion contributed to an overall surplus of USD 2.26 billion in overall balances during July-December, 2016. The deficit in current account of JulyDecember, 2016 was mainly due to the rise in import payables along with the shortfall in the primary income and income from the service sector as well as slow growth in remittance inflow. 20
  23. 17 . Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections (Taka in crore) Annual tax revenue collections 2009-2010 NBR Tax Revenue Non-NBR Tax Revenue Total Tax Revenue 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 62042.16 79403.11 95058.99 103332.00 120819.86 135700.70 (61000.00) (75600.00) (92370.00) (112259.00) (125000.00) (135028.00) 2848.00 3229.36 3631.58 4120.00 4612.64 4821.57 (2956.00) (3452.00) (3915.00) (4565.00) (5178.00) (5648.00) 64890.16 82632.47 98690.57 107452.00 125432.50 140522.27 (63956.00) (79052.00) (96285.00) (116824.00) (130178.00) (140676.00) Note:- Figures in brackets indicate the target of revenue collection. Customs duties 1 (Taka in crore) NBR Tax Revenue Income others* Tax 3 4 VAT 2 Non-NBR Tax 5=(1+..+4) Revenue 6 Total Tax Revenue Collections 7=(5+6) 8728.06 376.09 9104.15 1030.75 3594.43 1995.34 1321.06 Total Customs duties 1 NBR Tax Revenue Income others* Tax 3 4 VAT 2 Non-NBR Tax 5=(1+..+4) Revenue 6 Total Tax Revenue Collections 7=(5+6) 7941.58 345.18 8286.76 Total 2014-15 2015-16 July 1122.01 3528.60 2459.71 1617.74 August 1261.38 3780.11 2634.03 1952.19 9627.71 610.69 10238.40 1261.00 3576.30 2124.39 1741.88 8703.57 372.20 9075.77 September 1382.36 4835.24 4432.91 2109.32 12759.83 408.38 13168.21 1311.14 3923.21 3807.66 2024.90 11066.91 380.55 11447.46 October 1309.26 4394.23 3307.76 2223.82 11235.07 406.43 11641.50 1034.50 3805.61 3190.48 1697.08 9727.67 309.07 10036.74 November 1569.71 4985.84 3138.55 2820.29 12514.39 462.98 12977.37 1154.11 3870.47 2682.63 1756.95 9464.16 380.04 9844.20 December 1593.82 4488.25 4610.99 2531.17 13224.23 486.57 13710.80 1224.09 4172.53 3808.03 1873.91 11078.56 413.82 11492.38 January 1490.70 4328.79 3447.14 2618.11 11884.74 424.56 12309.30 1184.19 4053.66 2848.94 2320.04 10406.83 398.80 10805.63 February 1483.99 4174.79 3247.01 2485.55 11391.34 425.24 11816.58 1154.04 3845.08 3086.94 2000.58 10086.64 358.88 10445.52 March 1660.76 4680.54 5217.03 2514.77 14073.10 465.53 14538.63 1247.53 4518.21 4827.60 1890.38 12483.72 413.10 12896.82 April 1447.16 4516.18 5348.65 2593.77 13905.76 478.24 14384.00 1418.20 4851.94 3777.81 2122.03 12169.98 427.62 12597.60 May 1833.02 5715.28 4093.18 2711.74 14353.22 518.83 14872.05 1646.02 5309.35 4038.35 2318.22 13311.94 454.84 13766.78 June 1862.41 6018.83 11389.00 2551.03 21821.27 578.92 22400.19 1684.28 4459.81 11289.23 1825.82 19259.14 567.47 19826.61 18016.58 55446.68 53325.96 28729.50 155518.72 (+14.60) 5642.46 (+17.03) 161161.18 (+14.69) 15349.85 49980.60 47477.40 22892.85 135700.70 (+12.32) 4821.57 (+4.53) 140522.27 (+12.03) July 1242.47 3862.23 2683.49 1805.95 9594.14 417.46 10011.60 1122.01 3528.60 2459.71 1617.74 8728.06 376.09 9104.15 August 1737.32 5074.41 2861.17 2754.57 12427.47 523.38 12950.85 1261.38 3780.11 2634.03 1952.19 9627.71 610.69 10238.40 September 1443.81 4999.08 5146.28 2824.75 14413.92 373.37 14787.29 1382.36 4835.24 5146.28 1395.95 12759.83 408.38 13168.21 October 1567.22 5264.70 3710.38 2896.85 13439.15 481.58 13920.73 1309.26 4394.23 3307.76 2223.82 11235.07 406.43 11641.50 July-October 5990.82 19200.42 14401.32 10282.12 49874.68 1795.79 51670.47 5075.01 16538.18 13547.78 7189.70 42350.67 1801.60 44152.27 (+17.77) (-0.32) (+17.03) (+13.12) (+28.05) (+13.66) July-June 2016-17 P 2015-16 R Source: National Board of Revenue and Office of the Controller General of Accounts. P=Provisional, R=Revised; *=include supplementary duties & travel tax. --- = Not Available. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Non-NBR tax revenue includes narcotics & liquor duty, taxes on vehicles, land revenue and stamp duty(non judicial). Growth of total tax revenue collection (year-on-year) Growth of NBR tax revenue 64 NBR 56 Non-NBR 33 Total 40 2015-16 25 32 Percentage 24 16 8 21 17 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Jul. Oct 16 Sep 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Jun 16 May 16 Apr.16 Mar.16 Feb.16 Jan.16 Dec.15 Nov.15 5 Oct.15 9 Sep.15 -8 -16 Sep. 13 0 Aug. Percentage 2016-17 29 48 Total tax revenue collection (NBR & non-NBR) during July-October 2016 stood at Taka 51670.47 crore which was higher by Taka 7518.21 crore or 17.03 percent against the collection of Taka 44152.27 crore during July-October 2015. NBR tax revenue collection stood at Taka 49874.68 crore which was higher by Taka 6137.61 crore or 14.03 percent as compared to the target set by NBR of Taka 43737.07 crore during July-October, 2016. However, this collection was 17.77 percent higher as compared to that of the same period of the previous year. Target for NBR tax revenue collection is Taka 2,03,152.00 crore for FY17 21
  24. b ) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) (Taka in crore) FY Sale Repayment (Principal) Net sale (1) (2) (3) 4=(2-3) (5) 2011-12 18955.35 18476.33 479.02 63917.34 23326.77 22553.93 772.84 64690.18 24309.59 12602.29 11707.30 76397.48 42659.79 13927.13 28732.66 105130.14 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Outstanding at the end of the year (Taka in crore) Months Sale Repayment (Principal) Net sale Outstanding at the end period Repayment (Principal) Sale 2015-16 Outstanding at the end period Net sale 2014-15 January 5069.06 1771.68 3297.38 121733.11 3574.17 970.73 2603.44 92136.44 February 4973.90 1686.33 3287.57 125020.69 3588.31 1044.11 2544.20 94680.64 March 5121.42 1823.71 3297.71 128318.40 4330.71 1429.77 2900.94 97581.58 April 4919.52 1620.06 3299.46 131617.86 4297.36 1352.95 2944.41 100525.99 May 5294.97 1689.91 3605.06 135222.91 3907.07 1473.12 2433.95 102959.94 June 5309.29 1713.47 3595.83 138818.74 3591.17 1420.97 2170.20 105130.14 53712.45 20023.85 33688.60 138818.74 42659.79 13927.13 28732.66 105130.14 (+25.91) (+43.78) (+32.04) (+75.49) (+10.51) July-June 2016-17 (+37.61) 2015-16 July 4932.05 1433.68 3498.37 142317.11 3236.40 1260.12 1976.28 107106.42 August 6327.61 2030.40 4297.21 146614.32 4524.42 1873.51 2650.91 109757.33 September 5390.50 1535.99 3854.50 150468.82 3436.03 1382.23 2053.80 111811.13 October 6104.91 1838.31 4266.61 154735.43 4061.46 1708.75 2352.71 114163.84 November 6106.62 1703.76 4402.85 159138.28 4031.68 1739.52 2292.16 116456.00 December 4881.59 1727.57 3154.02 162292.30 3734.30 1754.57 1979.73 118435.73 33743.28 10269.72 23473.56 162292.30 23024.29 9718.70 13305.59 118435.73 (+46.56) (+5.67) (+76.42) (+37.03) (-66.91) (-88.95) (-82.26) (+32.28) July-December Target for net sale of NSC is Taka 19,610.00 crore for FY 2016-17. Source:- National Savings Directorate. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Monthly net sale of NSC 2015-16 4350 3800 3250 2700 22 Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. 1600 Aug. 2150 Jul. The outstanding borrowing of the government through NSC as of end December 2016 stood at Taka 162292.30 crore which was 37.03 percent higher than that of the previous year. 2016-17 4900 (Taka in crore) The sale of National Savings Certificates (NSC) during July-December, 2016 stood at Taka 33743.28 crore which was 46.56 percent higher than the amount of sale during July-December, 2015. The net borrowing of the government through NSC during July-December, 2016 was Taka 23473.56 crore against Taka 13305.59 crore of July-December, 2015.
  25. c ) Budget financing (Taka in crore) nonNet borrowing Net of the Govt. bank borrowing of the Govt. Total domestic from the banking system from the public financing Year financing 3/ 2/ 1/ 1 Net foreign Outstanding Total financing of GDP@ at Domestic debt current market (end period) price 5 6=(4+5) Outstanding domestic debt as % of GDP@ at current market price 2 3 7 8 9 2009-2010 -4376.00 12256.14 7880.14 10218.86 18099.00 2.27 116823.84 14.65 2010-2011 19175.90 3012.93 22397.03 7470.44 29867.47 3.26 139220.87 15.20 2011-2012 18784.20 2241.10 21025.30 9714.35 30739.65 2.91 160423.25 15.20 2012-2013 17873.00 7724.86 25597.86 15080.19 40678.05 3.39 181183.96 15.11 2013-2014 6627.80 15351.72 21979.52 14224.04 36203.56 2.69 203163.48 15.12 2014-2015R -7370.70 34723.57 27352.87 17067.58 44420.45 2.93 230516.35 15.23 P 4=(2+3) Total financing as % 4326.60 34166.55 38493.15 20213.70 58706.85 3.39 269009.50 15.55 July-December, 2015R -5871.40 13395.99 7524.59 8478.46 16003.05 0.93 238040.94 13.76 July-December, 2016P -15208.00 24302.05 9094.05 6884.97 15979.02 0.81 278103.55 14.18 2015-2016 Source: Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance. P=Provisional ; R=Revised, 1/: Excludes interest, 2/: Excludes saving certificates held by the banks and includes treasury bills & bonds held by the non-bank financial institutions through secondary auctions, T.bills & bonds have been taken at face value. 3/: Total aid disbursement less amortization payment, @: nominal GDP (base 2005-06=100) has been used. Government’s budget financing from domestic sources stood higher at Taka 90.94 billion during July-December, 2016 as compared to that of Taka 75.25 billion of July-December, 2015. Net foreign financing stood at Taka 68.85 billion in the period under review. Therefore, the total budget financing of the government during July-December, 2016 stood higher at Taka 159.79 billion against Taka 160.03 billion during July-December, 2015. However, Govt. borrowing from the banking system fell short from govt.’s repayment and as such net borrowing stood negative at Taka 152.08 billion during July-December, 2016. While, government borrowing from the non-banking sources stood markedly higher at Taka 243.02 billion during July-December, 2016 as compared to that of July-December, 2015. The total budget financing during July-December, 2016 stood at 0.81 percent of projected GDP against 4.70 percent (overall deficit, including grants) as envisaged in the national budget for FY17. 18. Food situations (In lakh metric ton) Actual Net Food grain Imports Year Production Domestic Production Domestic Govt. & Target (Gross) Production* food aid FY2010-11 360.65 FY2011-12 357.25 345.13 348.20 310.62 313.38 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 354.66 358.81 350.88 356.56 FY2014-15 360.50 FY2015-16 R FY2016-17 T Public Public Foodgrain Domestic Distribution Stock Public Private Total 22.04 35.00 4.62 22.91 8.87 10.50 12.40 57.04 22.90 14.26 20.95 12.48 315.79 320.90 4.72 8.56 14.18 21.37 18.90 29.93 14.06 14.34 20.87 22.20 14.97 11.53 360.58 324.52 3.34 49.40 52.74 16.76 18.38 12.86 364.24 358.80 322.92 3.34 42.06 45.40 12.32 20.64 8.56 365.17 R ---- ---- 5.00 40.00 45.00 17.00 27.80 12.96 Particulars R Procurement July-January, 2016-17 P 1. Imports (Rice & Wheat) 2. Procurement (Rice & Wheat)B 3. Distribution (Rice & Wheat) 4. Food Stock (End June) July-January, 2015-16 36.37 12.98 11.38 9.43 24.45 6.90 7.52 15.45 Source : Bangladesh Food Situation Report, FPMU, Ministry of Food & Disaster Management,Govt. of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh. Note : T = Target, P = Provisional, R = Revised, B = Boro. ---- = Data not avaiable. ** Only for Aus and Aman *= After 10% deduction for FY 11 onwards for seed, feed, waste etc. Imports for rice and wheat were higher at 36.37 lakh metric tons during July-January, 2016-17 than 24.45 lakh metric tons during July-January, 2015-16. Imports and procurement combined during July-January, 2016-17 was also higher than that of July-January, 2015-16. Public food distribution of rice and wheat during July-January, 2016-17 was also higher during July-January, 2016-17 at 11.38 lakh metric tons. However, outstanding food stock was 38.96 percent lower at 9.43 lakh metric tons during July-January, 2016-17 as compared to that of July-January, 2015-16. 23
  26. APPENDIX Break-up of fresh opening , settlement and outstanding of import LCs (US$ in million ) Changes during July-December, 2016 July-December, 2015 July-December, 2016 over July-December, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding opening of LCs LCs at the end opening of LCs opening of LCs LCs at the LCs at the period end period end period P Sectors / Commodities A. Consumer goods 3050.65 2388.18 2109.38 2322.33 2333.09 1587.72 +728.32 +55.08 +521.66 Rice and wheat 783.58 581.53 470.57 646.16 625.18 357.21 +137.43 -43.64 +113.36 Sugar and salt 502.19 328.44 556.54 267.60 399.69 333.39 +234.59 -71.25 +223.14 Milk food 137.59 104.48 96.53 97.65 106.77 90.09 +39.95 -2.29 +6.44 Edible oil (refined) 432.65 394.53 340.02 340.24 315.31 310.57 +92.41 +79.22 +29.45 All kinds of fruits 164.14 114.44 59.76 135.24 107.14 43.63 +28.89 +7.30 +16.13 Pulses 285.46 194.17 203.59 177.70 137.25 154.78 +107.76 +56.92 +48.82 Onion 103.51 97.50 33.38 172.38 158.41 35.96 -68.87 -60.90 -2.57 Spices 83.33 79.33 27.66 50.74 60.95 17.11 +32.59 +18.38 +10.55 Second hand clothings 0.15 1.62 0.04 1.11 3.33 2.10 -0.96 -1.71 -2.06 Drugs and medicines(finished) 45.12 36.27 24.41 39.51 32.79 21.97 +5.61 +3.48 +2.45 Others 512.93 455.87 296.88 394.01 386.28 220.92 +118.92 +69.59 +75.96 2010.77 1830.70 1736.06 1706.63 1666.98 1496.13 +304.14 +163.72 +239.93 147.39 97.32 96.61 111.05 128.21 74.15 +36.34 -30.89 +22.45 6.46 7.10 9.72 4.63 4.90 5.76 +1.84 +2.20 +3.96 Clinker & limestone 288.94 287.89 194.33 240.77 272.42 174.18 +48.17 +15.46 +20.15 B. P. sheet 141.21 147.67 164.47 130.62 152.09 175.95 +10.59 -4.42 -11.48 7.27 4.05 7.14 6.93 9.04 2.35 +0.35 -5.00 +4.79 Scrap Vessels 356.09 378.56 376.38 305.58 329.58 349.05 +50.51 +48.98 +27.33 Iron and steel scrap 389.78 324.19 360.43 284.74 254.62 211.52 +105.04 +69.57 +148.91 Non-ferrous metal 115.72 113.88 94.33 139.28 117.19 96.29 -23.57 -3.31 -1.96 Paper and paper board 191.00 158.09 136.25 169.31 155.85 159.46 +21.68 +2.25 -23.21 Others 366.91 311.96 296.40 313.72 243.09 247.41 +53.19 +68.87 +48.99 8058.32 8042.38 5632.24 8215.54 7665.38 7669.86 -157.22 +377.00 -2037.61 Edible oil (Crude) & oil seeds 504.93 496.05 603.07 707.05 523.15 724.09 -202.12 -27.11 -121.02 Textile fabrics (B/B & others) 3427.13 3272.67 1973.65 3367.43 3101.85 2840.53 +59.70 +170.83 -866.88 Pharmaceutical raw materials 308.39 279.12 137.54 256.00 262.38 114.91 +52.39 +16.74 +22.63 Raw cotton 1052.64 1151.80 905.21 1032.56 980.75 1328.74 +20.08 +171.05 -423.53 Cotton yarn 584.21 595.73 419.43 526.72 557.19 459.24 +57.49 +38.54 -39.81 1.55 2.24 2.30 4.68 3.63 2.96 -3.13 -1.39 -0.66 Synthetic fibre & yarn 348.11 325.67 254.46 340.56 320.52 315.44 +7.55 +5.16 -60.98 Chemicals & chem. products 1831.35 1919.10 1336.57 1980.52 1915.91 1883.94 -149.17 +3.20 -547.37 B. Intermediate goods Coal Cement Tin plate C. Industrial raw materials Copra (continued on page-25) 24
  27. APPENDIX Break-up of fresh opening , settlement and outstanding of import LCs (US$ in million ) July-December, 2016 Sectors / Commodities D. Capital machinery P July-December, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding LCs at the LCs at the opening of LCs opening of LCs end period end period Changes during July-December, 2016 over July-December, 2015 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding LCs at the opening of LCs end period 2448.19 2867.67 5325.86 2396.56 1687.73 5661.48 +51.63 +1179.93 -335.62 Textile machinery 352.72 342.73 614.47 371.68 229.56 601.57 -18.96 +113.16 +12.90 Leather / tannery 9.96 15.63 11.16 25.29 4.59 20.57 -15.33 +11.04 -9.41 Jute industry 1.28 11.50 4.14 1.54 3.56 5.91 -0.26 +7.94 -1.77 Garment industry 388.40 350.97 622.24 355.46 265.46 603.03 +32.94 +85.51 +19.21 Pharmaceutical industry 89.62 53.97 98.95 47.46 41.52 48.78 +42.16 +12.46 +50.18 Packing industry 5.68 9.48 10.96 10.28 5.44 10.26 -4.60 +4.04 +0.70 1600.53 2083.38 3963.93 1584.85 1137.60 4371.36 +15.68 +945.78 -407.43 2497.06 2346.12 1879.89 2017.34 2190.41 2021.14 +479.72 +155.71 -141.26 415.21 393.25 294.65 353.19 378.15 412.83 +62.03 +15.09 -118.18 5.84 10.82 44.53 8.51 11.60 63.66 -2.67 -0.78 -19.12 Computer & its accessories 179.62 184.64 96.33 175.47 177.00 101.84 +4.15 +7.65 -5.51 Motor vehicle & motorcycle parts 67.56 50.17 37.83 63.18 63.47 29.83 +4.38 -13.30 +8.01 Bicycle parts 40.98 28.35 28.86 29.97 24.21 18.48 +11.01 +4.15 +10.38 Other iron and steel products 261.35 252.50 202.64 184.86 202.88 224.63 +76.48 +49.61 -21.99 Motor vehicles 531.06 449.51 256.10 411.30 389.83 185.55 +119.76 +59.68 +70.56 Other electronics components 103.46 72.48 99.45 81.83 74.83 75.31 +21.64 -2.36 +24.14 Tractors & power tiller 44.30 39.02 21.31 51.04 43.85 25.51 -6.74 -4.83 -4.20 Others 847.69 865.37 798.18 658.00 824.59 883.52 +189.69 +40.78 -85.34 1262.29 1157.28 621.41 1180.98 1439.88 762.04 +81.31 -282.60 -140.63 Crude 204.84 123.27 187.50 184.25 371.96 325.62 +20.60 -248.69 -138.12 Refined 1057.45 1034.01 433.91 996.74 1067.92 436.42 +60.71 -33.91 -2.51 G. Others 3695.58 3956.49 3191.06 3225.36 3320.34 3463.17 +470.21 +636.15 -272.11 Commercial sector 1683.26 2224.68 1804.61 1298.77 1659.39 2174.36 +384.48 +565.29 -369.75 Industrial sector 2012.32 1731.81 1386.45 1926.59 1660.95 1288.81 +85.73 +70.86 +97.64 22661.54 +1958.12 +2285.00 -2165.64 3188.37 +116.51 +228.70 -931.99 Other industry E. Machinery for misc. inds. Other machineries Marine diesel engine F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. Total of which back to back 23022.85 22588.82 3757.93 3609.76 20495.90 2256.37 21064.74 20303.82 3641.42 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department(FEOD), Bangladesh Bank. Comments and suggestions may be sent to: monjurul.haque@bb.org.bd mnurul.islam@bb.org.bd sadia.sultana@bb.org.bd 25 3381.06