Bangladesh Bank: Fortnightly Trends of Major Economic Indicators - Updates on 30 April 2021

Transcription

1. Monetary Policy Department (FRA Wing) Fortnightly Trends of Major Economic Indicators: Updates on 30 April 2021 As per the latest available data, broad money increased by Tk. 110058.90 crore or 8.01 percent and stood at Tk 1483793.90 crore in March 2021 over end June 2020 against the increase of Tk. 91057.00 crore or 7.47 percent to Tk 1310668.50 crore during the same period of the preceding year. Broad money increased during the reported period due mainly to sharp increase of net foreign assets (NFA). Reserve money stood at Tk 315656.20 crore as on 29 April 2021 which was Tk. 312654.80 crore as on 15 April 2021. Reserve money increased by 11.20 percent as on 29 April 2021 over end June 2020. Domestic credit increased by 4.83 percent and stood at TK. 1370733.70 crore by end March 2021 over end June 2020 against the increase of 7.29 percent to Tk. 1230485.80 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Domestic credit growth subdued over the reported period mainly due to decline of credit to public sector. Credit to public sector marginally decreased by 0.01 percent in March 2021 over end June 2020 against the increase of 19.96 percent during the same period of previous fiscal year. Public sector credit growth declined mainly due to switching of the government’s borrowing from the banking system to national saving certificates. As per the latest available data, government overall borrowing from the banking system decreased by Tk. 5053.26 crore from 01 July 2020 to 29 April 2021 against the increase of Tk. 59936.72 crore during the same period of the preceding fiscal year. However, credit to private sector increased by 5.75 percent in March 2021 over end June 2020 against the increase of 5.58 percent during the same period of previous fiscal year. NBR tax revenue collection during July-March 2020-21 stood at Tk. 176808.37 crore which was higher by Tk. 10687.00 crore or 6.43 percent against the collection of Tk. 166121.37 crore during the same period of the last fiscal year. Inward Remittances increased by 39.00 percent and stood at US$ 20665.85 million during JulyApril 2020-21 against the increase of 11.76 percent to US$ 14867.78 million during the same period of the last fiscal year. The inward remittances have significantly increased due mainly to allowing 2 percent cash incentives for sending it through the banking channels. Exports increased by 8.74 percent and stood at US$ 32072.73 million during July-April 2020-21 against the decrease of 13.09 percent to US$ 29493.84 million during the same period of the preceding fiscal year. Current account balance recorded surplus of US$ 125.00 million during July-March 2020-21 against the deficit of US$ 2651.00 million during July-March 2019-20. Surplus in current account balance emerged from larger inflows of remittances and significantly lower deficit in service accounts and surplus in secondary income. With the support of surplus both in financial and current account balance foreign exchange reserves of BB increased to US$ 44.95 billion as on 29 April 2021 from US$ 36.04 billion as on 30 June 2020. 1
2. As per latest information BB ’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 44.56 billion as on 17 May 2021. Inflation on twelve-month average basis (Base: FY2005-06=100) remained same to 5.63 percent in March 2021 as February 2021 due mainly to increase in food inflation and decrease in non-food inflation. Point to point general inflation increased to 5.47 percent in March 2021 from 5.32 percent in February 2021 due to a sharp increase of both food and non-food inflation. Detailed fortnightly information available up to 30 April 2021 are annexed herewith. 2
3. Annex-1 (continued) Detailed Information on Trends of Major Economic Indicators upto 30 April 2021 I. Money and Credit Particulars 1. Broad money (M2) 2. Reserve money @ 3. Bank deposits # 4. Domestic credit (A+B) A. Public sector (including govt.) (i+ii) i. Net credit to govt. sector ii. Credit to other public sector B. Credit to private sector (Taka in crore) R March 2020 February 2021 1310668.50 1480933.10 1483793.90 (+7.47) (+7.80) (+8.01) N/A *** 312654.80 ** March 2021 315656.20 * (N/A) (+10.14) (+11.20) 1137320.90 1295600.30 1299577.50 (+6.76) (+9.65) (+9.98) 1230485.80 1364504.20 1370733.70 (+7.29) (+4.35) (+4.83) 163906.30 210993.60 210350.30 (+19.96) (+0.30) (-0.01) 133765.00 179511.50 178911.80 (+18.09) (-0.90) (-1.24) 30141.30 31482.10 31438.60 (+29.05) (+7.76) (+7.61) 1066579.50 1153510.60 1160383.40 (+5.58) (+5.13) (+5.75) Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over corresponding end June. P= Provisional, @=excluding F.C. clearing account *Figure is as of 29 April 2021, **Figure is as of 15 April 2021, ***Figure is as of 29 April 2020 is not available due to the general holiday announced by the Government. # Demand and time deposits (excluding inter-bank) P
4. Annex-1 (continued) II. Government Financing (Taka in crore) As on Particulars Flow for the period of 29 April 2020 29 April 2021P 16-29 April 2020 16-29 April 2021 01 July 2019 to 29 April 2020 01 July 2020 to 29 April 2021 1. A. Net outstanding position of govt. borrowing from Bangladesh Bank 46258.13 10060.83 424.43 135.16 12313.40 -34292.67 B. Net outstanding position of govt. borrowing from banking sector(including BB) 168032.42 172769.75 351.25 -359.94 59936.72 -5053.26 February 2020 February 2021P February 2020 February 2021P July-February 2019-20 July-February 2020-21 332634.23 372554.18 (+)2790.89 (+)3711.38 (+)14631.16 (+)31564.84 March 2020 March 2021P July-March 2019-20 July-March 2020-21P 20534.12 (+2.91) 23731.46 (+15.57) 166121.37 (+8.26) 176808.37 (+6.43) As of end 2. Net outstanding position of non-bank borrowing of the govt.* 3. Govt.revenue collection (NBR portion) Flow for the month of Source: Research Department & Statistics Department, BB and National Board of Revenue. Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year P= Provisional * Excludes saving certificates held by the banks and includes T.bills & T.bonds held by non-bank financial institutions. Flow for the period of
5. Annex-1 (concluded) III. External Sector (In million US$) Particulars 1.Custom based import (c&f) 2. Opening of Import L/C R# 3. Settlement of Import L/C March 2021 July-March 2019-20R July-March 2020-21P 4277.20 6161.20 43584.90 46229.90 (-12.60) 5015.37 (NA) 4354.09 (NA) (+44.05) 6793.88 (+35.46) 5856.69 (+34.51) (-4.81) 33255.78 (NA) (NA) (+6.07) 34819.34 (+4.70) 29321.74 (-3.89) April 2020 April 2021 July-April 2019-20R July-April 2020-21P 1092.96 (-23.80) 2067.61 (+89.18) 14867.78 20665.85 (+11.76) (+39.00) April 2020 520.02 April 2021 3134.39 July-April 2019-20R 29493.84 July-April 2020-21P 32072.73 (+502.74) (-13.09) March 2020 R# ` 4. Inward Remittances 5. Exports (-82.86) July-March 2019-20 R (+8.74) July-March 2020-21 -2651.00 6. Current Account Balance 30507.59 125.00 29 April 2020 15 April 2021 29 April 2021 N/A (N/A) 44168.61 (+22.56) 44950.42 (+24.73) March 2020 February 2021 March 2021 a. Twelve month average basis 5.60 5.63 5.63 b. Twelve month point to point basis 5.48 5.32 5.47 7. Foreign Exchange Reserve@ IV. Price Index 1. CPI inflation at national level (Base : FY 2005-06=100) Source: Statistics Department and Accounts & Budgeting Department, BB and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Note: Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over the same period of the preceding year. P=Provisional, @ Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage changes over corresponding end June. NA= Not Available, due to the general holiday; R#=Revised by FEOD due to system generated data from "Online Import Monitoring System" for FY 20 and FY 19. P