MENA Market Report - 26 March

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 26, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended on a weak note as the global trade war has intensified between the world's two largest economies, which has the potential to impact the global growth. The latest news on supply cut extending in 2019 by one of the prominent OPEC member triggered a rally in oil prices, which pushed the price above the USD 70 per barrel at the end of the previous week. This augurs well for the regional economies, which are still relying on oil prices to support the government's ambitious plan to diversify their respective economies. For the day, four out of the eight indexes closed in red, while two in green and two remained unchanged during the session. UAE markets ended on a mixed note as Dubai was down by 1.1%, while Abu Dhabi was up by 0.8% for the day. Dubai index was skewed towards decliners with 21 losers compared to 7 gainers, while 8 remained unchanged for the day. Saudi Arabia closed flat for the day as the downward pressure in petchems sector stocks were offset by buying interest in banking sector stocks during the session. Egypt closed in red for the second consecutive session as the index was down by 0.5% for the day, however the index is expected to end the month with strong gains to become the best performer in the region. Kuwait closed in red as it was down by 0.5% for the day, continuing the downward pressure from the previous week. Bahrain closed marginally up by 0.1%, while Oman was flat for the day. Qatar closed on a negative note as it was down by 0.8% for the day, in line with the sentiments seen in the broader regional peers. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened in red as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are down by 0.4%, 1.0% and 1.6% respectively. Headlines (WW) US weekly jobless claims up slightly; leading indicator rises (ME) Tourist boom propels Middle East above Europe (WW) China renews pledges to open economy, protect IP rights (SA) Saudi Arabia job market to boom on VAT (WW) Euro zone business boom eases off but growth still solid (SA) Saudi February inflation edges down amid economic weakness (WW) France, Germany and Britain praise Trump rethink on Europe tariffs (AE) UAE free zone exports hit USD 61bn in 2017 (WW) BOJ's tankan seen showing business mood slightly down on strong yen (AE) UAE's new Eibor system to be more efficient and transparent (WW) Japan loses out amid China trade threat that shakes markets (AE) UAE inflation eases in February after jumping on new tax (WW) Germany welcomes US tariff exemption, wants more trade cooperation (AE) Abu Dhabi merges water & electricity authority, energy department (WW) Without water management, India’s 8% GDP growth is a distant dream (QA) Qatar-China bilateral trade hits USD 10.3bn in 2017 (CMD) Oil retreats from a 7-week high as trade war risks weigh on stock market (QA) Qatar’s non-oil exports jump in February; Oman top importer (CMD) Gold shines as trade war fears rattle markets (QA) Qatari Govt narrows building permits 32% in February (FX) Dollar makes risk-off gains as Trump signs new trade tariffs (KW) Kuwait seeks billions of Dollars in foreign investment (FX) Sterling set for biggest weekly rise in 6 weeks; risks lurk (OM) Oil and gas to drive rising Oman GDP (FI) Spanish bond yields near 15-month lows as second ‘A’ rating looms (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,115.16 -1.1% -1.1% -4.0% -7.6% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,615.27 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 4.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,842.63 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 8.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,631.91 -0.5% -0.5% -2.1% 3.5% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 16,984.69 -0.5% -0.5% 9.8% 13.1% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,752.66 -0.8% -0.8% 1.1% 2.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,334.96 0.1% 0.1% -2.6% 0.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 4,802.56 0.0% 0.0% -4.0% -5.8% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 100 219 238 40 89 102 82,913 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 189 70 79 57 39 42 133,689 Saudi (SASEIDX) 187 173 173 1,181 979 936 493,143 Kuwait (KWSE) 40 84 86 31 48 54 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 455 289 335 84 99 91 29,851 Qatar (DSM) 12 11 10 55 88 77 102,964 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 7 6 2 3 3 22,160 Oman (MSM30) 19 15 17 221 10 12 13,350 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 26, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 Previous Current 600 14.2 11.7 12.1 12 8 PB 10.7 10.7 7.7 7.6 4 1.1 1.3 2.5 1.7 140.3 108.2 1.2 - - 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 58.7 1.3 0 250.9 255.4 300 85.2 83.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Oman Average 13.1% 15% 12% 5.9% 6.0% 4.9% Bahrain Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Qatar 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% 8.5% 9% 5.4% 4.9% 6% 3.5% 3% 4% 2.7% 0.2% 0% 2.8% -3% 2% -6% 0.0% -9% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -5.8% -7.6% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 26, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMIRATES REFRESHMENTS PSC 3.29 -9.73% 0 17 842 ARAMEX PJSC 4.33 -3.70% 0 3,959 869 592 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.09 -3.67% 223 248 862 4,527 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 5.89 -2.72% 5,188 30,986 0.47% 2,142 4,596 DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 3.07 -2.28% 2,644 8,212 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DANA GAS PJSC 0.84 8.33% 84,067 67,900 NATIONAL TAKAFUL CO PJSC 0.52 -7.69% 6 3 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 0.71 4.23% 51,081 35,532 NATIONAL BANK OF FUJAIRAH PJSC 3.00 -5.00% 40 123 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC 11.40 2.19% 817 9,219 NATIONAL CORP FOR TOURISM 2.08 -3.85% 19,000 40,310 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.48 0.81% 37 91 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.06 -3.77% 40 43 INTERNATIONAL HOLDING COMPANY 1.45 0.69% 809 1,169 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 3.66 -1.64% 484 1,788 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) TALEEM REIT FUND 10.74 9.87% 1,667 17,096 RED SEA INTERNATIONAL CO 18.48 -3.03% 397 7,457 AL JAZIRA MAWTEN REIT 15.66 4.21% 2,010 30,845 ARABIAN PIPES CO SJSC 13.62 -2.50% 2,808 38,740 NATIONAL AGRICULTURE DEVELOPM 37.70 3.98% 1,329 49,142 BANK ALJAZIRA JSC 12.02 -2.50% 5,387 65,576 AL-OMRAN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADING 15.40 3.90% 5 80 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CO 9.51 -2.42% 648 6,240 COMPANY FOR COOPERATIVE INS 72.10 3.88% 978 69,193 MIDDLE EAST HEALTHCARE CO CJSC 59.00 -2.37% 151 9,001 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) HILAL CEMENT CO KSCP 56.00 19.64% 7 0 KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY 15.00 -20.00% 0 0 WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP 58.00 12.93% 25 1 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 27.90 -18.28% 127 4 45.00 -11.11% 111 5 Close DoD % Volume Value DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.48 2.53% 0 13,807 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.31 2.29% 0 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE & REINS 0.69 1.89% EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 5.30 1.89% EMAAR MALLS PJSC 2.15 Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Egypt Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers AMAR FINANCE AND LEASING CO 35.50 9.86% 4 0 SALBOOKH TRADING CO KSCP KUWAIT FOOD COMPANY KSCP 900.00 8.89% 0 0 AL MASSALEH REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 39.40 -8.63% 3 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 23.00 8.70% 0 0 NATIONAL CLEANING CO KSCP 62.30 -8.19% 393 26 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) EL EBOUR COMPANY FOR REAL EST 9.64 7.99% 0 1,846 EGYPTIAN CO FOR INTERNATIONAL 3.20 -7.19% 14 48 NORTH UPPER EGYPT DEVELOPMENT 6.20 7.26% 175 1,047 SINAI CEMENT CO SAE 13.71 -7.08% 52 740 ISMAILIA DEVELOPMENT AND RE 6.01 6.49% 126 734 ARAB VALVES CO SAE 1.61 -6.21% 67 111 DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING 20.74 6.22% 224 4,502 PAINTS AND CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES 51.93 -5.64% 124 6,645 EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES SAE 19.00 5.74% 4 67 ARAB MOLTAQA INVESTMENTS CO 23.30 -4.42% 16 387 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value AHLI BANK QSC 30.10 8.64% 61 1,765 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 72.57 -9.59% 43 3,248 COMMERCIAL BANK PSQC 29.80 3.02% 123 3,625 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QPSC 57.98 -4.28% 2 111 MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEV 7.78 2.83% 1,500 11,513 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 10.99 -3.55% 12 139 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QPSC 30.50 1.28% 6 180 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 7.32 -3.01% 3,460 25,716 QATAR FUEL CO QSC 114.83 1.04% 186 21,249 QATAR NAVIGATION QPSC 61.11 -2.63% 4 223 Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , March 26, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 91,042 113.80 0.9% 11.8% 3,886 117,933 115.40 94.25 19 2.1 3.7% 2 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 44,641 83.70 2.2% 22.0% 600 13,382 84.00 65.10 16 2.7 4.8% 3 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,151 17.80 -0.3% 1.7% 215 1,042 18.85 15.75 18 3.5 4.5% 4 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 34,569 11.65 2.2% 13.7% 817 2,593 11.70 10.05 13 1.2 6.0% 5 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 33,974 63.70 0.0% 15.6% 398 6,755 65.00 37.00 13 2.0 2.7% 6 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 33,878 133.51 -1.1% 6.0% 129 4,723 151.00 115.01 9 1.6 4.5% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 33,194 76.60 0.7% 18.6% 3,605 73,632 78.20 61.00 14 2.2 5.2% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 22,445 20.20 -0.7% -4.1% 1,352 7,281 26.05 19.76 8 1.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 19,920 24.00 0.0% -4.0% 4 25 27.06 20.30 17 1.8 1.7% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,951 108.00 -0.4% 11.3% 160 4,741 115.00 85.00 20 1.9 4.6% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,515 53.00 -0.6% 1.7% 870 12,290 57.10 39.50 87 2.4 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 15,587 10.30 0.0% 25.6% 466 1,307 10.55 7.95 7 1.0 3.9% 13 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,542 786.00 0.6% 8.0% 3,354 8,808 800.00 640.00 15 1.4 3.8% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,587 54.70 0.6% 1.7% 310 4,524 78.64 50.00 26 3.7 1.4% 15 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 14,507 27.20 1.1% 15.6% 2,763 20,043 27.30 20.50 11 1.2 5.5% 16 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,047 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.20 4.90 73 7.1 0.0% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 12,500 31.25 0.5% 15.7% 119 991 31.55 20.60 12 1.4 4.5% 18 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 12,244 49.40 -0.3% -16.4% 432 5,690 75.60 49.15 341 4.5 0.0% 19 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,312 14.14 -0.1% 12.4% 2,181 8,226 14.18 10.10 11 1.1 5.2% 20 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,309 587.00 -0.3% 1.9% 2,068 4,056 650.00 467.00 18 1.8 2.9% 21 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,171 5.73 -2.7% -12.4% 5,188 8,095 8.43 5.70 7 0.8 0.0% 22 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,560 70.40 0.0% 19.3% 3,238 60,796 70.90 52.00 17 2.4 4.6% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,386 29.20 0.2% 2.5% 142 1,106 33.40 23.40 10 1.1 4.8% 24 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,342 6.60 -0.5% -2.9% 163 294 7.50 6.58 8 1.1 6.4% 25 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,993 9.10 0.2% 0.0% 260 631 11.30 7.90 53 1.1 0.0% 26 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 8,849 2.60 -1.1% -1.9% 12 9 2.90 2.50 18 11.4 2.3% 27 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,112 20.28 -0.3% 5.8% 15,330 82,909 20.86 14.00 15 1.5 3.9% 28 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,936 10.89 -1.9% -9.9% 486 1,454 16.30 6.19 17 1.0 0.0% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,889 71.00 0.0% 8.9% 7,200 136,315 72.60 57.00 34 4.3 2.5% 30 Arab National Bank SA 7,707 28.90 -1.2% 16.7% 502 3,872 29.45 19.00 10 1.2 4.2% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 601,860 3.6% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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