GCC Daily Market Update - 4 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,614.5 24,033.4 6,458.8 7,030.5 12,002.5 5,152.1 114,594.1 21,292.3 30,180.1 3,136.6 33,370.6 32.6 389.2 68.0 (26.2) (94.3) (15.2) 152.0 (96.3) 86.7 (26.5) 115.3 1.3 1.7 1.1 (0.4) (0.8) (0.3) 0.1 (0.5) 0.3 (0.8) 0.4 (1.0) (0.3) (1.9) (0.4) (0.8) (0.3) (0.3) (0.8) 0.3 (1.0) 1.2 (2.2) (2.8) 1.0 (8.6) (7.1) (3.0) (0.6) (6.5) 0.9 (5.2) (2.0) 8,721.8 7,799.8 4,585.2 3,100.4 6,633.4 4,775.3 1,290.6 1,647.0 3,582.4 (7.4) 16.3 3.6 (6.6) 29.9 25.1 (4.1) (3.9) 18.7 (0.1) 0.2 0.1 (0.2) 0.5 0.5 (0.3) (0.2) 0.5 1.7 (0.9) (0.0) (0.3) (2.1) 0.0 (2.1) (0.3) (0.9) 2.3 7.9 4.2 (8.0) 3.5 (6.4) (3.1) 3.4 (1.5) 68.1 63.5 2.7 1,332.8 306.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 (9.3) 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 (0.7) 0.4 (3.4) (2.5) (0.8) 0.8 1.2 1.5 4.8 (8.2) 1.8 (7.2) Global US equity markets ended higher yesterday, reversing its direction from previous day’s losses, as investors shrugged the ongoing worries over global trade war and recent declines in Technology sector. The S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, with all sectors closing higher. Energy stocks climbed sharply on back of rise in crude oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.5% on the 1st trading day of Q2-18, weighed by weakness in Industrials stocks. The UK benchmark declined 0.4%, on account of persistent worries over global trade war. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark edged 0.5% lower, weighed by weakness in export-oriented Technology stocks. The weakness was also weighed by dampening investors’ confidence on escalating US-China trade war fears. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended higher during yesterday’s trading session, amidst absence of fresh developments ahead of release of quarterly results by regional companies. The Saudi Arabian benchmark edged 0.2% higher, led by strength in Transportation and Real Estate stocks. The index was also weighed by weakness in Consumer Staples sector. In Abu Dhabi, Waha Capital declined 7.8% after the company went ex-dividend. Omani Banking stocks inched higher after the central bank relaxed rules for capital and credit exposure to boost lending activity in the region. Qatar The QE index edged 0.1% lower during yesterday’s trading session, weighed by selling pressure by foreign and domestic institutional investors. Trade turnover and volumes declined during the trading session, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for about 76% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 44 exchanged hands of which, 22 declined, 16 advanced and 6 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.0 1.2 5.0 61.0 DSM 20 13.0 1.3 5.0 44.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.1 1.7 3.3 1,242.6 UAE (ADX) 11.8 1.3 5.2 28.9 UAE (DFM) 10.9 1.1 5.8 29.1 Kuwait (KSE) 15.2 1.1 5.7 74.0 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.0 5.0 13.7 Bahrain (BAX) 8.7 0.8 6.3 0.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Doha Insurance Co Qatar General Ins. & Re Vodafone Qatar Qatar Fuel Medicare Group Top Losers National Leasing Doha Bank Qatar National Cement Qatar & Oman Invest. Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Close Price 13.6 46.9 8.8 116.8 68.8 1.0 1.9 0.2 2.7 0.7 8.0 4.2 2.6 2.3 1.0 (2.8) (4.3) 9.7 14.5 (1.6) 10.5 26.5 55.0 7.3 7.4 (0.3) (0.5) (1.0) (0.1) (0.1) (2.9) (1.9) (1.8) (1.7) (1.6) (2.1) (7.0) (12.6) (7.5) (18.0) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. (18.3) 0.1 16.1 19.6 1.1 13.4 (7.2) 1,605.5 NA (13.5) 133.9 12.1 (26.3) 24.3 24.1 (44.8) 254.3 (14.4) 545.0 (30.8) 44.2 (25.2) 9.7 (46.0) 1,696.4 175.4 8.0 11.0 24.7 30.7 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 8,721.8 9,000 8,500 10.0 8,000 7,500 7/Jan 0.0 21/Jan 4/Feb 18/Feb Index Volume (mn) 4/Mar 18/Mar 1/Apr Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,860.0 5,553.6 2,939.9 3,177.2 1,845.7 1,105.4 1,805.4 1D Change (%) 0.1 1.2 (0.9) 1.6 0.2 0.9 (0.2) Buy (%) 36.4 20.9 57.3 15.2 27.5 42.7 Sell (%) 31.8 32.1 63.9 12.6 23.5 36.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS    Fed Governor, Lael Brainard, stated that in spite of higher asset valuations the overall risks to the financial system would remain moderate, as important financial reforms have encouraged large banks to build strong capital and liquidity buffers. (Source: CNBC) pod. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah Economic City is planning to establish a National Academy of Aviation Technology, for training around 1,000 aircraft technicians and 350 pilots every year. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based developer Tanmiyat has awarded an USD 163.0mn construction contract to Al Adnan Contracting to construct six towers in Dubailand as a part of its Living Legends project in the emirate. Germany’s retail sales increased by 1.3% YoY while it decreased by 0.7% MoM in February-18. (Source: Destatis) (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman's central bank has reduced the capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks to 11.0% from 12.0% which is expected to increase the volume of additional credit available to OMR 7.8bn (USD 20.3 bn) from OMR 5.2bn. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain's Ministry of Housing has received an application from more than 56 top Bahraini and Saudi companies that are competing to get the contract for two major residential projects in the Wadi Al Sail and Galali areas of Bahrain. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait’s Capital Markets Authority has given its approval to United Real Estate company’s prospectus to issue bonds worth KWD 60.0mn (USD 200.0mn) or KWD 50,000 per bond. The bonds would be issued in two tiers, fixed and floating, with a maturity period not exceeding five years. (Source: Mubasher) Times)  Turkey’s consumer prices increased 10.3% YoY in March-18, driven by a 15.4% YoY increase in furnishing and household equipment prices and 13.4% YoY in transportation prices. (Source: Turkstat). Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait has increased its stake by 5.51% to 15.3% in Heavy Engineering Industries and Shipbuilding. (Source: Mubasher)  Kuwait based Alrai Media Group has received approval to distribute as cash dividends amounting to 24.0% of its capital for FY-17. (Source: China ambassador to US announced that if US imposes further tariffs on Chinese good it will reciprocate with similar tariffs on US goods. (Source: Reuters)  Indian Government has announced that the domestic banks will not get any bailout packages similar to the USD 32.0bn bailout package that was given to State bank of India and banks will have to sell their assets to fund themselves. (Source: Reuters)  Australia’s retail sales turnover increased by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.6% MoM and 2.7% YoY to AUD 26.4bn in February-18. (Source: ABS)  The Reserve Bank of India has given approval to the local banks experiencing losses from bonds trading to spread out their trading losses over four quarters which would save them from raising funds in order to meet provisioning norms on bankrupt cases. (Source: Economic   Turkey’s domestic producer price index increased by 1.5% MoM and 14.3% YoY to a reading of 333.21 points in March-18, driven by increase in mining and quarrying sector by 12.9% YoY and manufacturing sector by 14.8% YoY. (Source: Turkstat) Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  GCC NEWS Qatar’s real estate transactions amounted to QAR 418.3mn between 25th March-18 and 29th March-18, according to Ministry of Justice. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE listed companies have witnessed a 14.4% YoY growth in cash dividend distributed to AED 37.2bn (USD 10.1bn) in FY-17 which is the largest in the Middle East region according to Wam. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar and US Economic Forum focuses on discussing ways to establish combined investment projects for the benefit of private sectors in both the countries. (Source: Gulf times)  UAE’s non-oil private sector economic activity growth eased in March18 as the PMI declined to 54.8 from 55.1 in February-18 on account of stagnant foreign demand for goods and services, according to Emirates NBD. (Source: The National)  Qatar’s public works authority, Ashgal has signed four new contracts, worth QAR 1.5bn to develop 3,508 land plots under the Citizens Residential Projects in Al Wakrah Municipality, Qatar. (Source: Gulf times)   UAE’s Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs has announced that UAE does not believe in protectionism and will support liberalization in order to enhance foreign direct investment. The nation intends to relax legislations with an aim to increase foreign ownership in certain sectors. (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar’s Economic adviser to the Emiri Diwan has announced that the country has offered gas to UAE on a very competitive terms as it believed in the Gulf agreements and integration. (Source: Gulf times)  Dubai government’s investment arm, Investment Corporation of Dubai has raised a USD 1.2bn loan which it will be using to partly refinance its USD 2.5bn five-year loan raised in 2013. (Source: Reuters) Qatar Central Bank Governor has announced that the he central bank has sufficient reserves and in the sovereign fund huge asset base which could help the nation sustain its growth under the blockade for an indefinite period. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar’s Central Bank Governor expects that the much-awaited merger between Masraf Al Rayan, Barwa Bank and International Bank of Qatar which will create a lender with more than QAR 180.0bn (USD 49.5bn) of assets will be completed this year. (Source: Gulf times)  Commercial Bank of Qatar is planning to issue bonds worth USD 1.0bn, which would be traded in the markets around the world, especially in Asia and Australia. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Doha Bank has launched its 3rd branch in Chennai, India. The bank current holds 3 branches in India. (Source: Gulf Times)  Barwa Bank is focusing on achieving the largest possible share of financing infrastructure projects and to provide all possible support to the growth of the country’s economy, the bank’s Chairman and Managing Director stated. (Source: Gulf Times)  Barwa Bank has received an approval to distribute cash dividends accounting for 14.0% of the nominal value of the shares at the rate of QAR 1.4 per share. (Source: Qatar Tribune)    Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has awarded an order valued at USD 90.0mn to build a substation that will assimilate solar power from upcoming phases of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park into the city’s electrical grid. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai based Union Properties has launched a new mixed-use development project in Dubai's Motor City, Zawaya, which is the first phase of its new AED 8.0bn (USD 2.1bn) masterplan for Motor City that was revealed recently. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based industrial investment holding company Senaat has reported an 18% YoY increase in revenue to AED 16.0bn (USD 4.4bn) in FY-17 resulting from the diversified nature of its portfolio according its CEO. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia has committed with US based technology firm, Virgin to bring hyperloop technology to Saudi Arabia as announced by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in his Vision 2030 Hyperloop 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2300 USD/QAR 3.6415 106.6100 EUR/QAR 4.4790 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4087 JPY/QAR 0.0342 USD/CHF 0.9589 GBP/QAR 5.1298 USD/CAD 1.2807 CHF/QAR 3.7976 AUD/USD 0.7685 CAD/QAR 2.8434 NZD/USD 0.7256 AUD/QAR 2.7985 USD/INR 64.5125 INR/QAR 0.0564 USD/TRY 3.9885 TRY/QAR 0.9130 USD/ZAR 11.8213 ZAR/QAR 0.3080 USD/BRL 3.3410 BRL/QAR 1.0899 FX Commentary The USD ended higher against a basket of major currencies yesterday with dollar index ending 0.2% higher at 90.184. Strength in the GBP was led by upbeat UK manufacturing data for March-18 and shifting focus from Brexit to UK economy’s outlook. The EUR weakened against the greenback after the data showed discouraging Eurozone manufacturing growth for March18. The JPY declined, after BoJ Governor termed exiting from ultra-loose monetary policy for near-term as premature. The CAD strengthened against its US counterpart, led by rising oil prices and growing optimism surrounding the NAFTA trade deal. The AUD strengthened against the USD, after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.75 1.88 2.31 2.66 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 2.27 2.32 2.44 2.65 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.90 2.03 2.28 2.67 2.0% EIBOR 1.51 1.62 1.91 2.39 2.84 BMIBOR 1.63 1.90 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.50 KIBOR 2.67% 2.27% 2 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 2.59% 2.73% 2.76% 2.81% 2.0% 1.0% 2.35% 2.17% 2.01% 2.85% 2.61% 1.59% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.46% 3.53% 2.60% 2.72% 2.78% 3.02% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 4.74% 3.40% 5 Yrs Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 27.5 (0.8) Turkey 196.0 16.4 UK 19.2 (7.5) Brazil 167.2 (20.7) Germany 11.9 (2.7) Egypt 272.5 (76.3) France 18.7 (4.2) Abu Dhabi Italy 103.0 (43.0) Greece 360.0 Russia 123.2 Japan 25.7 64.1 5.9 Bahrain 297.7 60.4 (186.2) Dubai 108.1 (23.8) (11.4) Qatar 88.5 (10.1) (13.6) Saudi Arabia 86.6 1.3 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Mar 55.5 56.5 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar 51 51.4 12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 8.50% 8.60% 12:00 Eurozone CPI Core YoY Mar A 1.10% 1.00% 12:00 Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY Mar 1.40% 1.20% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar-30th - 4.80% 15:15 US ADP Employment Change Mar 210k 235k Apr-02nd 16:00 Russia CPI WoW - 0.10% 16:45 US Markit US Services PMI Mar F 54.2 54.1 16:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Mar F - 54.3 17:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar 59 59.5 17:00 US Factory Orders Feb 1.70% (1.40%) 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders Feb F - 3.10% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 0.1 (72.5) (61.7) Hayat Communications Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 29th March 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.3 0.0 11.1 3.3 6.8 5.7 4.9 0.0 4.4 8.0 4.6 6.9 5.0 7.1 5.8 6.0 4.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 7.2 6.4 6.6 6.2 0.0 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.1 2.2 7.7 8.0 4.6 0.0 5.3 3.5 4.9 7.3 4.0 7.5 4.8 0.0 8.4 5.8 4.2 0.0 3.3 4.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 4.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.1 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 3.1 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 4.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 20.1 20.2 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 13.1 164.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 9.1 9.1 24.6 10.1 5.1 27.0 14.6 20.2 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 6.7 11.1 12.2 40.2 12.4 19.2 17.0 12.8 16.7 10.0 11.2 16.5 17.9 16.7 28.2 12.8 11.7 20.7 7.6 16.5 30.1 8.7 11.6 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.9 11.0 10.0 13.8 11.3 12.2 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 40.1 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 6.0 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 31.5 30.0 11.8 27.0 30.2 11.1 35.3 10.3 6.4 97.5 50.0 130.0 7.3 56.2 68.6 142.0 25.2 110.0 5.8 5.8 59.0 101.0 9.7 18.4 6.1 105.1 14.7 188.0 33.9 39.0 56.0 10.3 14.1 37.5 45.0 48.2 33.5 10.5 7.3 14.9 82.5 8.7 40.5 15.3 56.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4