GCC Daily Market Update - 2 January

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 2 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,673.6 24,719.2 6,396.4 7,687.8 12,917.6 5,312.6 115,333.0 22,764.9 29,919.2 3,307.2 33,812.8 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (244.1) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (0.7) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (0.7) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (0.7) 8,523.4 7,194.2 4,398.4 3,370.1 6,408.0 5,082.2 1,331.7 1,586.9 3,638.4 NA (32.2) NA NA NA (17.1) NA NA (0.2) NA (0.5) NA NA NA (0.3) NA NA (0.0) NA (0.4) NA NA NA (0.3) NA NA (0.0) NA (0.4) NA NA NA (0.3) NA NA 0.1 66.9 60.4 3.0 1,309.3 330.1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Global Most of the global equity markets were closed on Monday on account of New Year holiday. GCC Most of the GCC equity markets remained closed. The Saudi Arabian benchmark declined 0.5%, after Saudi government raised domestic gasoline prices, earlier than expectations to cut its budget deficit. Bus operator Saudi Public Transport Co. gained 3.8%, amid expectations that higher gasoline prices might result in people preferring busses instead of private cars. On the other hand, United International Transport Co fell 1.8% on account price hike news. The Omani benchmark fell 0.3%, on the first trading day of 2018, on the back of increased bearish bets in Services & Insurance and Banking shares. Qatar Qatar stock exchange was closed on account of New Year holiday. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.3 4.3 51.7 DSM 20 13.8 1.3 4.6 39.1 8,500 10.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.6 3.4 940.1 8,000 5.0 UAE (ADX) 15.8 1.3 4.6 68.1 UAE (DFM) 21.3 1.2 4.2 135.4 Kuwait (KSE) 15.7 1.0 5.4 33.4 Oman (MSM) 12.3 1.0 5.2 1.3 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.9 0.8 5.9 2.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers NA NA NA NA NA Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,000 7,500 5/Oct 15.0 8,523.4 0.0 19/Oct 2/Nov 16/Nov Index Volume (mn) 30/Nov 14/Dec 28/Dec Index Value Closing Level NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1D Change (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Buy (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Sell (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 2 , 2018 intermediate to its US affiliate, SABIC Innovative Plastics. GLOBAL NEWS (Source: Trade Arabia)  UK’s house prices increased by 2.7% YoY in 2017, driven by rise in prices of 13.0% in Cheltenham region, which is in southwest England, to an average price of GBP 313,150 (USD 423,000), according to Bank of Scotland Plc’s Halifax division report. (Source: Bloomberg)  Saudi Telecom Company has started the construction works for its network operations centre, which would be the largest center in the Mena region, at the King Abdulaziz Telecom Complex in Al Mursalat district in capital Riyadh. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 in December-17 as compared to 51.8 in November-17 driven by decrease in production and new orders index to 54 and 53.4. (Source: Economic Times)   Singapore’s economic growth rate stood at 3.5% in 2017, driven by strong growth in services industries such as finance and transport, in Q4-17. (Source: Bloomberg) Saudi Aramco has signed a partnership agreement with Dubai based Lamprell, Saudi based Bahri and Korea based Hyundai Heavy Industries to start their International Maritime Industries joint venture. The JV is expected to commence its operations by 2022. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait has announced the start of its membership at the UN Security Council, effective from 1st January-18, amidst many regional and global challenges. The country would have two years of membership and would succeed Egypt in representing the Arab Group in the UN.   State Bank of India has decrease the base rate, a rate below which it does not give loans to prime customers, by 30bps to 8.65%. This would benefit almost 50.0% of all home loan borrowers with debt linked to the base rate. (Source: Economic Times) Turkey’s Foreign Minister stated that the country’s ties with Germany are expected to improve in 2018, as both the countries are planning to normalize their relations with each other. (Source: Hurriyet Daily) GCC NEWS  (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE and Saudi Arabia are the first GCC nations to implement a 5.0% VAT on majority of goods and services effective 1st January-18. (Source: QATAR NEWS  Trade Arabia)   UAE Ministry of Finance has updated the Federal Financial System and will manage all financial transactions related to VAT. All federal entities linked to the system, would be able to perform all VAT related transactions. (Source: Trade Arabia) UAE has blocked Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services after receiving number of queries from local residents. Du and Etisalat have warned that VoIP services would remain regulated in the UAE unless they meet the country’s licensing requirements. (Source: Arabian Business)  Producer Price Index increased by 6.1% MoM and 21.4% YoY to 60.8 points in November-18, driven by mining which rose by 6.9% MoM. Electricity and water decreased by 2.7% MoM during the month. (Source: Gulf Base) The population fell by 1.5% MoM to 2.6mn in December-17, due to the annual vacation, when considerably large number of residents are out of the country. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s Ministry of Education and Higher Education announced that they have received around 37,000 job applicants from various Arab nationalities for academic, administrative and special education posts through its website in the period between 15th December to 31st December-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based property developer, Danube Properties, has awarded 5 construction contract worth AED 381.0mn (USD 104.0mn) in the year 2017. The major contract of AED 221.0mn was awarded to Naresco Contracting LLC to deliver Miraclz Tower near Miracle Gardens at Arjan. The project is expected to be delivered by 2019. (Source: Zawya) Qatar Central Bank is persuading financial institutions to provide financial products and services without minimum balance or charges as part of the national goal to promote financial inclusion and and financial literacy. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Arabia has increased the prices of Octane 91 fuel from SAR 0.8 per litre to SAR 1.4 per litre and Octane 95 from SAR 0.9 per litre to SAR 2.04 per litre. The change in prices is effective from 1st January18. (Source: Arabian Business) Elecronic payment solution provider, QPAY, has received the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI-DSS) version 3.2, which is acknowledged at the highest level of security in the global card industry. (Source: The Peninsula)  Saudi Arabia based financial service provider, Al Rajhi Capital, has initiated the IPO of its Al Rajhi Real Estate Investment Traded Fund worth SAR 1.6bn (USD 431.6mn). The fund would offer 42.7mn units of SAR 10.0 each. (Source: Trade Arabia) Moody’s and Fitch ratings have affirmed their ratings of A2 and A respectively for Qatar International Islamic Bank due to its strong financial position and ability to overcome challenges and market factors. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Postal Services Company (Qatar Post) has introduced its new ecommerce platform, The Turkish Souq, which is a product been developed in the partnership between Qatar Post and Turkey Post. The platform would provide access to 5.0mn Turkish products ranging from clothing to vehicle parts at a delivery rate of QAR 50.0. (Source: Gulf Dubai Electricity and Water Authority’s investments in its R&D unit is expected to reach AED 500.0mn (USD 136.0mn) by 2020, CEO of the company stated. The investments for R&D would be in the field of solar energy, smart grids, energy and water efficiency, and capacity building in these sectors. (Source: Trade Arabia)      (Source: MDPS) The Minister of Transport and Communications announced that the total volume of e-trade in Qatar amounted to QAR 4.0bn at the end of December-17. Out of the total, Qatar Airways’ shipping accounted for 25.0%, followed by cargo services by other Qatari companies which accounted for 14.0%. (Source: The Peninsula) Dubai based contractor, Arabtec’s wholly owned subsidiary, Arabtec Construction has been awarded a contract worth AED 1.0bn (USD279.0mn) from Dubai Properties for Villanova Amaranta and La Quinta residential communities. (Source: Trade Arabia)  GDP increased by 7.4% QoQ and 1.9% YoY to QAR 151.7bn in Q3-17. The nominal Gross Value Added of Mining and Quarrying activities increased by 14.6% YoY to QAR 50.2bn, while Non-Mining and Quarrying activities increased by 4.1% YoY to QAR 101.4bn in Q3-17.    Oman Ooredoo has signed an agreement with Oman Aquaculture Development Company to provide full-range of cloud-based data services. The agreement would be implemented one month after the introduction of Ooredoo’s first locally hosted, enterprise-class Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) virtual server. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Electricity & Water Authority, Shamal Development, Meraas Development and Saudi Electricity Company have awarded 2 substation contracts worth USD 250.0mn to India based contraction company, Larsen & Toubro. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) has awarded a 20 years contract worth USD 1.6bn (INR 100.0bn) to India based chemical company, Aarti Industries, for supply of high value specialty chemicals Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 2 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2042 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.6300 USD/JPY EUR/QAR 4.3851 GBP/USD 1.3533 JPY/QAR 0.0323 USD/CHF 0.9750 GBP/QAR 4.9280 USD/CAD 1.2545 CHF/QAR 3.7349 AUD/USD 0.7805 CAD/QAR 2.9028 NZD/USD 0.7105 AUD/QAR 2.8422 USD/INR 63.1750 INR/QAR 0.0576 USD/TRY 3.7910 TRY/QAR 0.9606 USD/ZAR 12.3828 ZAR/QAR 0.2941 USD/BRL 3.3125 BRL/QAR 1.0993 FX Commentary Global currency markets remained closed yesterday, on account of New Year holiday. Source: Bloomberg SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 1.43 1.48 1.56 1.69 2.11 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 4.0% QAIBOR 2.03 2.17 2.33 2.65 3.02 SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.69 1.90 2.29 2.0% EIBOR 1.21 1.47 1.65 1.80 2.58 0.0% BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.13 2.35 2.93 KIBOR NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.31% 2.24% 2.0% 2.16% 1.97% 1.0% 2.40% 2.34% 2.59% 2.54% 1.46% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2 Yrs 3.30% 3.58% 2.21% 2.33% 2.41% 2.74% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5 Yrs 2.38 5 Years CDS US Swap Rates 2.08% 1.89% 3.03% Qatar 4.38% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 2.28% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 27.3 1.0 Turkey 157.3 (41.0) UK 20.3 (1.8) Brazil 164.1 (79.8) Germany 11.4 (5.5) Egypt 329.2 (78.3) France 19.4 (3.9) Abu Dhabi Italy 120.7 (26.7) Greece 427.5 Russia 133.9 Japan 27.3 0.3 67.0 4.1 Bahrain 286.7 27.5 (217.6) Dubai 129.4 (6.8) (37.4) Qatar 103.4 (14.4) 94.1 (22.0) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:45 Italy Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI Period Survey Prior Dec 58.5 11:50 France 58.3 Markit France Manufacturing PMI Dec F 59.3 11:55 59.3 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec F 63.3 63.3 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec F 60.6 60.6 12:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Dec 57.9 58.2 15:00 Canada MLI Leading Indicator MoM Nov - 0.40% 17:30 Canada Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI Dec - 54.4 17:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Dec F 55 55 18:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Dec-29th - 61.2 20:00 Italy New Car Registrations YoY Dec - 6.79% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE January 2 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 28th December 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 10.6 2.8 5.7 5.4 4.6 0.0 4.9 7.3 2.5 6.3 3.6 7.1 4.7 6.2 4.0 6.8 0.0 11.9 5.6 5.9 6.6 7.1 5.8 4.9 4.1 4.8 4.1 2.9 7.0 6.4 4.5 4.6 4.1 2.8 3.1 6.4 3.1 7.7 4.1 0.0 8.7 5.4 3.9 0.0 3.1 3.7 6.2 6.3 5.9 4.2 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 1.7 0.8 1.5 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 3.5 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 11.0 45.1 24.1 8.1 65.4 10.4 13.4 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 10.1 9.1 22.3 10.4 5.5 27.1 14.5 37.5 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.0 10.7 5.9 11.5 11.6 (H) ( ) 11.5 22.9 14.5 12.3 17.4 10.5 11.2 17.6 29.8 9.4 24.2 66.4 12.9 25.3 9.5 16.9 54.7 8.4 13.2 15.4 M) (‫)س‬ 21.9 11.8 11.0 20.2 13.3 13.0 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 0.7 -0.5 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.3 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 12.5 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.4 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.3 23.4 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 28.0 Stock Price (QR) 35.5 29.0 14.6 28.4 35.8 13.2 37.1 10.8 6.4 98.0 54.5 127.0 8.0 56.7 63.5 144.5 25.0 102.5 6.4 6.7 62.1 77.0 8.5 17.4 6.1 98.0 12.6 181.0 35.0 43.0 62.3 13.2 14.5 53.7 49.0 54.8 32.4 12.3 8.6 14.4 91.0 8.0 43.0 16.1 55.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4