Chances of an upside shock to oil prices are growing. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.After years of being too high, oil forecasts now appear too low. As supply rolls over we could see prices back at $100, with decade-high geopolitical risks shocking it higher.Spot, or immediate, prices are hard to model as demand is not linearly elastic, but dependent on hundreds of variables. Historical correlations also become irrelevant when sharp moves occur.Oil due for delivery in three to five years is easier to gauge. This should approximate the marginal cost of production for a given level of fut...

This insight aims to highlight new rules governing the Islamic finance sector in Indonesia and the enhanced role of the National Shariah Board, to set out the current state of the market including opportunities for foreign investment and to trace the roots of the industry in the country with the world’s largest Muslim population.New stress test rules for Islamic financial institutionsOn 19 November 2014, the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) issued new rules regarding the development of Islamic finance in the country. This followed an August 2014 initiative to encourage...

Solar Sukuk shows the way forward in alternative financing solutions. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.This article was originally published on 17 March 2015 by Rebecca Clow and Jonathan Lawrence, on K&L Gate Publications. SGI-Mitabu, a joint venture of two Australian solar companies, The Solar Guys International and Mitabu Australia, has revived its plans to fund its Indonesian 250 megawatt solar project with Islamic compliant funding. The solar project will require up to AUD550 million of financing. Commencing in July 2015, the first phase of the project w...

Interview originally published in Australia & New Zealand Property Journal, 3/11/2015ALMIR COLAN, director of the Australian Centre for Islamic Finance (AusCIF), comments on the state of Islamic finance in Australia today, and the economic benefits that more widespread implementation could provide. I started AusCIF a couple of years ago primarily to educate the community and businesses about the rules and opportunities of Islamic finance, specifically in the Australian context. Since then we’ve seen start-ups and new products developed in home financing, investment an...

Nairobi, Kenya: Central business district of Nairobi viewed from the roof of Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC). Image courtesy of Shutterstock. Kenya had its first REIT offer the Stanlib Fahari I-Reit on 25th October 2015. This is the first REIT offering after The Capital Markets (Real Estate Investment Trusts) (Collective Investment Schemes) Regulations, 2013 vide legal notice no. 116 came into effect on18th June, 2013. The same regulations also provide for the rules to govern Islamic REIT’s. This is an important and promising asset class for sharia complaint invest...

Samina Akram, launch of the Women in Islamic & Ethical Finance Forum (WIEFF) in London. July 2015.Last week saw the UK Government launch a special report led by Lord Davies entitled "Improving the Gender Balance on British Boards". The 5 year summary states "There are more women on FTSE 350 boards than ever before, with representation of women more than doubling since 2011 - now at 26.1% on FTSE 100 boards and 19.6% on FTSE 250 boards". The report claims there has been "a dramatic reduction in the number of all-male boards. There were 152 in 2011. Today there are no all-male boards...

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Lessons from the United States. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.Every week, we read about the housing crisis in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  An important recent development is the conversion of the Saudi Real Estate Fund into a real estate bank. The purpose of the fund is to expand homeownership for Saudi Arabians. In any country with low home ownership, the economy tends to perform less well than one with relatively high home ownership.  And, homeownership is a catalyst for economic, social and political cohesion.  When the middle class believe...

You may be aware that we recently put out a white paper based on data provided by Thomson Reuters that seeks to propel Dubai to the forefront of the Islamic asset management industry.Discussed on CNBC Arabiya from minute 3 onwards The full paper is here:http://www.rasmala.com/productfiles/TransformingWhitePaper.pdfKey points: Despite huge international potential, the Islamic asset management sector remains greatly underdeveloped.The industry has failed to take root amongst its core demographic. Total AUMs represent a tiny fraction of global funds and product offering is narrow, p...

Impact Investing: Exploring the potential rewards. Image courtesy of Shutterstock.Impact investing is an exciting and large-scale opportunity for the Islamic investment industry. In many ways, the transition “from compliance to impact” represents a next generation for the industry to enhance its relevance, expand its scale, and demonstrate its authenticity.This article offers four observations on this strategic transition: There is a journey from compliance to impact;Impact investing is best suited for certain contexts;Impact investing requires an expansion of...

The Problem with GDP: Is GDP a reliable measure of the economy and a country's well-being?GDP is a big deal. Public spending targets around the world are linked to it; Indonesia has a 15 year economic plan based on it; and it is one of the primary indicators used by investors. Gross domestic product (GDP), over the last few decades, has become a proxy for economic progress, being used to measure not just economic output, but also the health of nations, with governments rising and falling based on the release of these numbers. Economists are also gushing in their praise. Nobel Lau...