MENA Market Report - 26 April

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 26, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended the session on a negative note as five out of the eight indexes ended in red, while two in green and one remained closed for the day. US yields rising to 3.0% is resulting in downward pressure in equity markets as investors fear funds outflow in search for higher yields. Hence, the markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming sessions, but index specific activity will continue on the back of positive development and earnings announcements by leading corporates. The weekly performance of the regional markets has been negative with the exception of Egypt. For the day, Saudi Arabia was the worst performer as the index was down by 1.0% during the session. The second consecutive session of losses dragged the index into negative territory for the week, which was weighed down by index heavyweights. UAE markets ended on a negative note as both Dubai and Abu Dhabi were down by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively for the day, led by the real estate sector stocks. Dubai has remained under pressure for most part of the week, which has extended the losses to 1.8% for the week and 2.6% for the month. Qatar and Kuwait were the only two indexes to close in green as they were up by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively for the day, despite the bearish sentiments across the region. Bahrain and Oman were both down by 1.0% and 0.4% respectively for the day, extending the weekly losses. International Markets: US markets closed on a mixed note as DJIA and S&P were up by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while Nasdaq was down by 0.1% for the day. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, CAC and DAX were all down by 0.6%, 0.6% and 1.0% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets opened on a negative note as Hang Seng and Shanghai were down by 0.7% and 0.9%, while Nikkei is up by 0.6%. Headlines (WW) USD 35.8bn added to US economy in 2017 due to National park visitation (ME) Economic confidence in Middle East highest since 2015 (WW) China concerned trade and debt risk may curb economic growth (ME) Middle East, Africa region records mixed hotel performance in Q1 (WW) China gross oceanic product sees steady growth in Q1 (SA) Saudi inflation starts to edge down as VAT impact lessens (WW) China grants fresh outbound investment quotas after 3-year hiatus (SA) Saudi Arabia needs 1.2mn jobs by 2022 to hit unemployment target (WW) Xi aims to boost domestic demand as trade war looms (SA) NCP privatization program to contribute to Saudi Arabia's economic growth (WW) UK productivity worst since industrial revolution (AE) Abu Dhabi's new culture, leisure attractions win over tourists (WW) Japan ship takes ‘first of many’ US gas loads in nod to Trump (EG) Decline in Egypt private sector’s share of bank loans to 63.2% end-2017 (WW) German government cuts 2018 growth forecast to 2.3% (EG) Egyptians abroad remittances reach USD 20bn (CMD) Oil bounces back in volatile trade after US supply data (EG) Egypt has potential to attract 60mn tourists in next 10 years (CMD) Gold, Silver sink as US Dollar resumes rally (QA) Qatar to spend QAR 29bn on new projects in 2018 (FX) The US dollar is breaking out this week, boosted by trade talks and higher rates (QA) Qatar economy proved resilient to blockade (FX) Sterling stuck near five-week lows as dollar bounces on yield rise (OM) Oman to lead GCC in 2019 GDP growth (FI) European shares fall as bond yields rise, metals prices slide (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,026.32 -0.3% -1.8% -2.6% -10.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,671.03 -0.4% -0.8% 1.9% 6.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 8,233.05 -1.0% -0.5% 4.6% 13.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 4,786.61 0.1% -1.1% -4.3% -0.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) Closed Closed 1.9% 3.8% 20.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,109.64 0.2% -0.9% 6.2% 6.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,269.20 -1.0% -2.5% -3.7% -4.7% ˅ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 4,740.72 -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -7.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 180 166 208 66 70 92 81,341 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 59 67 72 34 36 37 1,36,320 Saudi (SASEIDX) 213 183 189 1,181 1,105 1,033 5,25,234 Kuwait (KWSE) 50 62 74 8 197 128 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) Closed 365 342 Closed 113 98 31,477 Qatar (DSM) 13 11 11 91 80 83 1,07,934 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 6 5 2 3 3 21,319 Oman (MSM30) 9 21 18 3 13 12 13,330 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 26, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios 12.8 11.1 12 8 PE (+ve.eps) 15.5 16 12.2 PB 8.2 1.3 2.6 1.8 148.2 109.8 1.2 - - 0.8 0.8 Bahrain Oman - 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi 5.6% 5.9% 5.1% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 3.7% 4% 2.5% 2% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -4.7% -7.0% Bahrain Oman Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% 86.5 86.3 62.3 1.4 0 289.7 254.5 300 1.0 Current 11.2 7.5 4 Previous 600 Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% 20.7% 13.9% 6.9% 6.2% -0.6% -10.2% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 26, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 1.49 -9.40% 0 19,439 11,833 MARKA PJSC 0.29 -8.62% 0 3,285 1,402 DXB ENTERTAINMENTS PJSC 0.42 -8.37% 44,161 19,303 2,361 5,029 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.40 -4.70% 4,801 1,987 6,429 12,891 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 0.80 -4.64% 826 675 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) 0.60 15.00% 3 2 DANA GAS PJSC 0.91 -4.40% 10,788 10,043 UNION INSURANCE CO PSC 1.44 14.58% 10 13 ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 2.14 -4.21% 12 26 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.76 5.26% 11 8 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.66 -3.03% 2,734 1,833 AL QUDRA HOLDING PJSC 1.15 4.35% 168 189 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.06 -2.83% 608 654 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE COMPANY 0.25 4.00% 261 64 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 3.70 -1.89% 1 5 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 109.60 9.12% 882 92,667 SAUDIA DAIRY AND FOODSTUFF CO 113.20 -5.65% 235 27,365 NATIONAL GYPSUM CO SJSC 12.82 4.99% 1,317 16,480 DUR HOSPITALITY CO SJSC 20.66 -3.29% 423 8,892 AL SAMAANI FACTORY METAL IND 46.10 4.12% 9 415 SAMBA FINANCIAL GROUP SJSC 29.45 -3.23% 1,471 44,036 ABDULLAH SAAD MOHAMMED ABO M 12.30 3.74% 2 19 ARAB NATIONAL BANK 32.00 -2.66% 108 3,514 ASEER TRADING TOURISM AND MFG 11.80 3.22% 921 10,700 ADVANCED PETROCHEMICAL CO SJSC 52.20 -2.49% 149 7,898 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) KUWAIT SYRIAN HOLDING CO KSC 30.00 6.67% 897 26 EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 22.90 -34.06% 17 0 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 23.00 6.52% 0 0 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 54.00 -10.00% 0 0 26.90 -9.67% 10 0 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARAMEX PJSC 3.97 2.77% 0 31,832 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 10.65 2.35% 0 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.04 1.92% 1,361 EMAAR MALLS PJSC 2.15 1.86% DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.02 1.49% Close * COMMERCIAL BANK INTERNATIONAL Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP 76.10 6.44% 63 5 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY SENERGY HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 25.00 6.00% 73 2 TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 31.40 -6.05% 5,897 191 AL-ARABIYA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 30.00 5.33% 3 0 AQAR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS CO 74.50 -4.70% 21 2 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Gainers Market Remained Closed Egypt Market Remained Closed Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR NAVIGATION QPSC 53.00 7.53% 194 9,932 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 20.00 -6.75% 567 11,751 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 11.50 4.35% 181 2,034 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QPSC 9.87 -4.26% 247 2,495 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE & REINS 46.00 3.26% 2 71 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QPSC 27.64 -2.32% 4 116 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 10.80 3.06% 109 1,163 INDUSTRIES QATAR QSC 110.50 -2.17% 209 23,363 COMMERCIAL BANK PSQC 35.20 2.81% 371 12,877 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 67.30 -1.55% 21 1,443 Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , April 26, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 96,960 121.20 -1.0% 19.1% 3,414 1,10,345 123.80 94.25 20 2.2 3.5% 2 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 44,480 83.40 -1.5% 21.6% 181 4,021 86.00 65.10 16 2.7 4.8% 3 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 40,848 17.25 -0.9% -1.4% 745 3,499 18.85 15.75 17 3.4 4.6% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 38,443 151.50 0.6% 20.2% 114 4,746 159.00 115.01 10 2.0 4.0% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 36,942 12.45 -0.4% 21.5% 2,533 8,588 12.65 10.05 14 1.3 5.6% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 36,097 83.30 -1.7% 28.9% 2,771 61,561 85.60 61.00 15 2.4 4.8% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 35,733 67.00 -1.8% 21.6% 407 7,269 68.60 38.00 14 2.1 2.5% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 25,088 22.58 -0.1% 7.2% 1,958 11,790 26.05 19.76 14 1.3 3.1% 9 DP World Ltd AE 17,970 21.65 -0.0% -13.4% 195 1,151 27.06 20.30 15 1.7 1.9% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 17,967 108.10 -2.2% 11.4% 209 6,210 115.00 85.00 20 1.9 4.6% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 17,418 55.90 -1.4% 7.3% 263 3,920 58.70 39.50 91 2.5 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 16,495 10.90 2.3% 32.9% 1,124 3,336 11.00 7.95 7 1.0 3.7% 13 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 15,451 747.00 1.4% 7.7% 3,916 9,725 761.90 619.05 14 1.5 3.6% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 15,440 57.90 -1.0% 7.6% 286 4,409 78.64 50.00 27 3.9 1.3% 15 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 15,200 28.50 -3.2% 21.2% 1,471 11,177 29.60 20.50 11 1.3 5.3% 16 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,047 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.00 4.90 75 7.9 0.0% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 12,920 32.30 -2.1% 19.6% 121 1,042 33.50 21.55 12 1.5 4.4% 18 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,984 14.98 -1.4% 19.1% 2,100 8,388 15.36 10.10 11 1.2 4.9% 19 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 11,252 45.40 -0.1% -23.2% 996 12,055 75.60 45.00 - 4.4 0.0% 20 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,852 514.00 0.2% -1.8% 2,412 4,121 590.91 424.55 17 1.7 2.7% 21 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 10,547 5.41 -1.5% -17.3% 6,590 9,707 8.43 5.40 7 0.8 0.0% 22 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,495 32.65 -1.1% 14.6% 277 2,411 33.40 25.30 11 1.2 4.3% 23 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,470 69.80 -0.9% 18.3% 349 6,495 74.50 52.00 16 2.3 4.7% 24 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,049 7.10 0.7% 4.4% 2,674 5,169 7.50 6.50 9 1.1 5.9% 25 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,924 9.03 0.1% 0.0% 304 731 11.30 7.90 50 1.1 0.0% 26 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,352 20.88 -0.3% 9.0% 19,137 1,06,550 21.58 14.00 15 1.5 3.8% 27 Arab National Bank SA 8,307 31.15 -2.7% 25.8% 108 900 33.65 19.15 10 1.3 3.9% 28 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 8,305 2.44 -0.4% -7.9% 974 647 2.90 2.44 17 10.7 2.4% 29 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 8,234 11.30 -0.2% -6.5% 165 511 16.30 6.19 18 1.0 0.0% 30 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,761 2.19 1.9% 2.8% 2,361 1,408 2.70 2.00 14 1.7 4.6% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 6,23,030 3.5% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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