MENA Market Report - 16 May

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Monday , May 16, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets started the week on a negative note on the back of debt ratings cut by Moody of MENA countries over the weekend and bearish sentiments seen in global markets towards the close of previous week. Although, the ratings cut weighed on the markets for the day, it is not likely to have a significant impact as oil prices will be a key catalysts for the regional markets going forward. For the day, six out of the eight indexes closed in red while Saudi Arabia and Oman closed mostly flat at the end of the session. Egypt was the worst performer as it was down by 2.0%, after Moody’s cut its outlook to negative from stable, a sign that hoped-for improvements in the economy following massive foreign aid and efforts at reform are still challenging for the country to achieve going forward. UAE markets closed on a negative note as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both down by 1.2% and 0.3% respectively for the day. Dubai was dragged lower by industrial stocks as Drake and Scull International and Arabtec Holding were both down by close to 5.0% each after reporting disappointing earnings for the quarter. Saudi Arabia closed flat for the day, relatively outperformance compared to the region as Moody’s remain positive about the country’s new reform agenda. Qatar was marginally lower by 0.2% for the day, which was dragged lower by 7.2% decline in Medicare Group and 3.4% in Qatari Investors Group. Kuwait and Bahrain also closed down by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while Oman closed flat for the day. International Markets: At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened the week on a positive note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were all up by 1.3%, 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Headlines (WW) UK Home Prices Rise As Landlord Surge Leaves Property Famine (GC) Moody’s Cuts Saudi, Oman, Bahrain Debt Ratings (WW) UK Business Lobby Cuts Growth Forecast, Wage And Retail Outlook Soft (AE) Takaful Emarat Reports 3.3 Million Dirham Net Profit For Q1 2016. (WW) China’s Record $26 Billion Buyout Deals At Risk Of Unraveling (AE) Sharjah Insurance Swings To Net Loss In First Quarter (WW) China April Investment Growth Cools To 10.5% Year-On-Year, Missing Forecasts (AE) Moody’s Affirms Abu Dhabi’s Rating At Aa2 (WW) China April Economic Activity Data Disappoints, Hiking Recovery Doubts (AE) GGICO Records Net Profits Of Dh8M For The First Quarter Of 2016 (WW) Japan’s Abe To Delay Sales Tax Hike (AE) Dubai’s Drake & Scull Q1 Net Profit Falls 61%, Extends Earnings Slump (WW) Global PE Firms Find Sweet Spot In Japan’s Food Sector (AE) Dubai’s Arabtec Q1 Net Loss Narrows As Revenue Rises (WW) Thailand’s Economy Expands More Than Expected In First Quarter (AE) RAK Ceramics First-Quarter Profit Rises 10.8% (CMD) Oil Prices Jump As Goldman Sachs Says Market Flips Into Deficit (EG) Egypt’s Unemployment Rate Eases Slightly To 12.7% (CMD) Gold Advances As Investors Extend Fund-Buying Spree To 14 Days (EG) Egypt’s CIB Reports 17% Rise In Q1 Net Profit (FX) Yen Slips After Initial Rise On China Growth Worries (EG) Egypt Credit Outlook Cut To Negative By S&P On Finance Pressure (FI) Bahrain Privately Places $435 Mln Sukuk (KW) NREC Net Profit Up 9.8% From Q1 2015 (FI) Australian Yield At Record Low Highlights Global Rush Into Debt (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,304.63 -1.2% -1.2% -5.4% 4.9% ˅ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,374.19 -0.3% -0.3% -3.7% 1.6% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 6,692.60 -0.0% -0.0% -1.7% -3.2% ˄ ˄ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,375.70 -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -4.3% ˄ ˄ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 7,373.00 -2.0% -2.0% -5.1% 5.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 9,919.62 -0.2% -0.2% -2.6% -4.9% ˅ ˄ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,109.78 -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -8.7% ˅ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,971.25 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 10.5% ˄ ˄ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 188 590 458 62 192 150 78,534 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 111 170 146 30 70 71 115,024 Saudi (SASEIDX) 251 325 302 1,434 1,546 1,496 408,763 Kuwait (KWSE) 130 166 145 35 43 43 77,958 Egypt (EGX30) 140 296 274 79 120 110 47,219 Qatar (DSM) 10 11 9 82 101 97 122,848 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 0 1 2 0 1 1 17,735 Oman (MSM30) 13 25 23 9 13 14 16,921 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Monday , May 16, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 13.8 PB Previous Current 600 494.7 13.4 12.1 12 10.7 10.0 9.5 8.7 9.3 343.7 8.9 300 8 234.2 223.4 153.8 4 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar 1.3 96.3 93.4 0.8 1.2 Bahrain Oman 1.2 0 0 Dubai Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman 15% 6.2% 5.7% 4.9% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 4% Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 6% Kuwait 4.4% 10.5% 10% 4.5% 2.2% 5% 5.2% 4.9% 1.6% 0% -5% 2% -3.2% -4.3% -4.9% -10% -8.7% -15% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Monday , May 16, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) TAKAFUL EMARAT INSURANCE PJSC 1.84 2.22% 10 18 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 0.84 0.24% 2,464 2,067 Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.45 -4.61% 38,871 57,724 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.54 -4.59% 20,833 11,521 AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.43 -4.03% 10,187 14,873 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 0.63 -3.67% 1,330 854 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.71 -3.29% 12,400 8,903 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 3.40 4.62% 8 28 NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 5.03 -9.86% 4 21 UNITED ARAB BANK PJSC 2.75 3.77% 29 77 INTL FISH FARMING HOLDING CO PJSC 1.56 -9.83% 590 970 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.84 2.44% 35 29 AL KHAZNA INSURANCE CO PSC 0.34 -8.11% 6 2 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 3.45 1.47% 168 576 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.26 -3.83% 59 136 NATIONAL BANK OF ABU DHABI PJSC 8.39 1.33% 103 855 ESHRAQ PROPERTIES CO PJSC 0.78 -3.70% 12,844 10,211 Close DoD % Volume Value Close DoD % Volume Value AL RAJHI CO FOR COOP INSURANCE 25.30 9.52% 1,817 43,981 SAUDI COMPANY FOR HARDWARE 91.75 -4.68% 320 30,095 KNOWLEDGE ECONOMIC CITY CO SJSC 14.45 6.25% 3,559 49,922 AL BABTAIN POWER & TELECOMM 29.30 -3.62% 494 14,732 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL EXPORT CO SJSC 47.20 5.12% 2,137 98,425 ETIHAD ATHEEB TELECOM CO SJSC 4.20 -3.45% 4,448 19,015 RABIGH REFINING & PETROCHEM CO 12.60 4.56% 7,866 96,942 AXA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 18.25 -3.18% 1,755 32,550 ALINMA TOKIO MARINE CO SJSC 21.20 4.43% 8,344 173,135 AL HASSAN GHAZI IBRAHIM SHAKER 25.50 -3.04% 170 4,409 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 50.00 25.00% 1 0 NATIONAL INDUSTRIES GROUP 116.00 -7.94% 3,315 401 MENA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 24.00 9.09% 128 3 KUWAIT CABLE VISION COMPANY 23.50 -7.84% 0 0 NAFAIS HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 174.00 6.10% 0 0 NOOR FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CO 41.00 -5.75% 923 39 AL MASAKEN INTL REAL ESTATE DEV 74.00 5.71% 331 24 LIVESTOCK TRANSPORT AND TRADING 168.00 -5.62% 130 22 HEAVY ENGG INDUSTRIES & SHIP 170.00 4.94% 60 10 MUNSHAAT REAL ESTATE PROJECTS 54.00 -5.26% 2,133 118 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) EGYPTIANS FOR INVESTMENT 2.10 6.06% 3,585 7,314 MEDICAL PACKAGING CO SAE 1.36 -9.33% 7,136 10,204 ISMAILIA DEVELOPMENT AND REAL 4.15 4.27% 51 206 ARAB VALVES CO SAE 1.14 -8.80% 315 377 AL AHLY FOR DEVELOPMENT & INVES 7.13 3.94% 399 2,789 AL OROUBA SECURITIES BROKERAGE 0.64 -8.57% 29 19 ISMAILIA MISR POULTRY CO SAE 2.13 3.90% 1,247 2,605 MODERN WATERPROOFING CO SAE 0.87 -7.45% 1,692 1,532 ARAB MOLTAQA INVESTMENTS CO 17.62 3.89% 61 1,058 AL ARAFA FOR INVESTMENT & CONS 0.13 -7.14% 10 1 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 37.00 6.47% 3,341 119,867 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 99.30 -7.20% 202 20,793 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 87.80 1.50% 14 1,207 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 59.80 -4.93% 176 10,828 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 12.43 1.47% 2,049 25,286 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 59.00 -4.53% 31 1,877 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 76.00 1.33% 22 1,657 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 66.50 -3.62% 34 2,321 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 40.50 1.25% 9 368 QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 51.60 -3.37% 190 9,995 Top Gainers Kuwait DoD % DoD % Top Gainers FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC Top Gainers Egypt Close * Close * Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Monday , May 16, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corp SJSC SA 67,418 84.25 -0.3% 9.8% 7,106 159,645 109.75 59.50 14 1.5 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 43,098 18.20 -0.3% 13.0% 690 3,421 19.10 11.30 19 3.8 4.4% 3 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 34,142 64.00 -0.4% -6.2% 271 4,628 73.25 52.75 14 2.1 6.3% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 31,975 138.60 0.1% -5.0% 27 1,026 166.67 122.50 10 2.0 1.8% 5 Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corp SA 25,682 59.25 0.0% 13.9% 1,151 18,183 69.00 44.70 13 2.0 2.5% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 22,726 42.60 -0.7% -16.5% 148 1,685 70.50 36.60 9 1.5 3.6% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 19,227 17.30 -0.3% 9.8% 2,654 12,245 21.00 12.40 34 1.2 4.0% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,788 101.00 0.5% -9.1% 58 1,613 144.00 88.00 15 2.0 5.0% 9 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 15,246 61.50 0.8% 10.8% 752 12,330 82.00 40.80 - 6.1 0.0% 10 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 15,194 12.40 -0.8% -2.0% 531 1,794 15.75 9.90 10 1.7 8.1% 11 DP World Ltd AE 14,899 17.95 0.3% -11.6% 31 153 23.90 16.40 18 1.7 1.7% 12 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 13,096 17.97 -0.2% 13.0% 183 901 21.78 12.10 28 1.5 2.8% 13 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,810 41.10 3.3% 23.8% 6,981 76,510 48.40 25.70 94 1.7 0.0% 14 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,333 8.15 -0.1% 10.1% 85 189 10.95 6.25 7 0.9 4.9% 15 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 12,282 6.30 -1.1% 10.7% 3,297 5,656 8.28 4.22 11 1.2 2.4% 16 Kingdom Holding Co SA 11,961 12.10 -0.4% -22.9% 692 2,232 23.50 9.80 67 1.7 4.1% 17 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 11,902 8.39 1.3% 5.4% 103 234 11.25 6.86 9 1.0 5.4% 18 Almarai Co SJSC SA 11,736 55.00 -0.9% -6.3% 473 6,937 73.50 40.88 23 3.6 1.6% 19 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,683 21.90 -0.7% -6.2% 681 3,976 30.00 17.55 8 1.1 4.1% 20 National Bank of Kuwait SAK KW 11,588 660.00 0.0% -13.4% 3,757 8,237 828.57 619.05 13 1.2 4.3% 21 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,851 2.78 -0.4% 0.7% 2,518 1,906 3.50 2.02 21 2.3 3.6% 22 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 9,403 23.50 1.1% -5.1% 110 688 37.80 19.00 8 1.2 3.2% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,264 6.08 1.2% -7.7% 308 510 8.91 5.20 7 1.2 7.4% 24 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,882 11.10 0.0% -10.5% 750 2,220 18.15 10.80 8 0.9 6.3% 25 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,348 480.00 1.1% -2.2% 654 1,043 609.09 395.45 17 1.4 3.2% 26 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,164 25.40 0.0% -9.3% 91 617 40.90 20.70 8 1.1 4.1% 27 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,921 90.00 -0.1% 20.0% 13 327 99.50 60.00 12 1.3 3.3% 28 Emirates Integrated Telecom Co PJSC AE 7,817 6.28 -1.7% 23.1% 585 1,001 6.84 4.65 15 3.7 6.8% 29 Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co SJSC SA 7,057 63.50 0.0% -23.3% 300 5,077 127.50 61.00 14 4.0 9.4% 30 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,027 34.10 0.6% -9.3% 589 5,523 47.00 28.60 12 2.3 5.1% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 499,519 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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