MENA Market Report - 14 February

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , February 14, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets closed on a negative note as five out of the eight indexes ended in red, while three in green. For the region, Dubai and Egypt were the two indexes that witnessed selling pressure, while the rest of them remained range bound for the day. UAE indexes closed lower as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both down by 1.7% and 0.1% respectively for the day. Dubai was mostly dragged lower by Arabtec, which was limit down for the day after reporting huge losses, much larger than street estimates. The stock might continue to witness selling pressure but more clarity on details of recent losses might indicate that this is likely to be the end and company is path to start on a clean slate. Egypt was down by 1.4% for the day, extending losses to 2.9% in the past two trading sessions. Saudi Arabia closed on a positive note as it was up by 0.5% for the day, adding to gains from the previous day. Qatar closed up marginally by 0.1% for the day, second consecutive sessions of gains for the week. Kuwait was up by 0.3% for the day, adding to the gains of 0.8% recorded on the previous day. The index is recovering previous week's losses; however the buying activity is more gradual. Bahrain and Oman were both marginally down by 0.1% each for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were up by 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively. European markets also closed on a positive note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were up by 0.3%, 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a slightly negative note as Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were marginally down by 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.02% respectively. Headlines (WW) Global stocks move higher on Trump policy bets (GCC) Over 124,000 jobs available in Mideast in 2016 (WW) Exports prop up Japan Q4 GDP growth, U.S. protectionist risks loom (GCC) Oil price decline becomes a blessing in disguise for GCC economies (WW) Citing Trump and Brexit, EU sees economic risk, sharp drop in UK growth (GCC) GCC countries to keep peg to dollar despite REER rise (WW) S&P tops $20 trillion as 'Trump trade' roars back to life (SA) Saudi govt approves 92 billion riyals support for agriculture, water, environment (WW) Investors await Trump tax plans (SA) OPEC reports big Saudi oil cut, boosting compliance with deal (WW) China stocks rise for 4th session, scale 2-month high as materials firm (SA) Saudi govt approves $24.5bln support to meet Vision 2030 goals (WW) China steel capacity rises in 2016, despite closures (AE) Economic slowdown, UAE fires weigh down GCC's insurance industry (WW) CANADA STOCKS-Futures trade higher on global cues (AE) UAE credit growth projected to remain in single digits in 2017 (WW) Indian retail inflation lowest in at least five years (QA) Qatar ranked in top 15% of countries for productivity potential (CMD) Gold slips as dollar strengthens against yen (QA) Hundreds of Uber drivers in Qatar go on strike after price cuts (CMD) OPEC reports compliance with cuts, raises 2017 oil demand growth forecast (EG) Egypt’s real estate boom has turned from economic safe haven to rubble (FX) Dollar index hits three-week high on hopes of U.S. tax cuts (EG) Egypt inflation hits highest level this decade (FX) Australia dlr struggles near 3-mth high, NZ$ pauses (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,637.55 -1.7% -1.2% -0.1% 3.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,563.98 -0.1% -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,059.55 0.5% 1.3% -0.6% -2.1% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,656.85 0.3% 1.1% -2.6% 15.8% ˄ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 12,740.05 -1.4% -2.9% 0.5% 3.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,670.51 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 2.2% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,307.81 -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 7.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,815.36 -0.1% -0.1% 0.7% 0.6% ˄ ˄ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 666 745 532 217 262 186 86,283 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 282 197 146 96 74 58 119,711 Saudi (SASEIDX) 212 290 247 1,019 1,326 1,085 437,424 Kuwait (KWSE) 499 370 224 169 109 73 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 234 455 334 69 94 77 20,708 Qatar (DSM) 8 8 8 65 65 72 134,949 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 4 3 1 3 2 20,248 Oman (MSM30) 20 15 16 10 9 9 17,210 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , February 14, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 12 14.0 12.7 11.2 PB Previous 489.3 13.3 11.6 9.7 386.2 8.9 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.3 Current 600 1.3 2.3 1.7 1.5 - - 0.9 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 178.1 0 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 8% 27% 5.5% 6% 4.6% 4.1% 9% 3.8% 4% 15.8% 18% 5.1% 3.2% 7.2% 3.0% 0.4% 3.2% 2.2% Egypt Qatar 0.6% 0% 2.1% 2% -2.1% -9% 0.0% 0.0% 0% -18% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , February 14, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AMLAK FINANCE PJSC 1.30 -10.00% 15,501 21,271 32,255 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL 0.53 -10.00% 199,837 111,798 6,181 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.32 -9.85% 12,926 17,994 MASHREQBANK PSC 84.90 -9.31% 1 45 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 1.05 -6.38% 51,244 55,640 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ESHRAQ PROPERTIES COMPANY PJSC 1.10 -10.00% 120,589 140,017 Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.58 1.16% 2,639 6,769 DUBAI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 6.26 0.16% 5,157 EMIRATES NBD BANK PJSC 8.65 0.12% 715 Top Losers Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI NATIONAL INSURANCE CO 2.40 7.50% 228 528 NATIONAL BANK OF ABU DHABI PJSC 9.96 1.41% 520 5,141 RAS AL KHAIMAH CERAMICS PSC 2.38 -9.66% 858 2,151 EMIRATES TELECOMMUNICATIONS 17.80 1.12% 878 15,550 DANA GAS PJSC 0.51 -7.84% 29,574 15,725 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 7.32 0.96% 1,986 14,468 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING HOLD 2.26 -7.08% 6,055 14,205 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.50 0.67% 390 583 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.07 -5.61% 143 158 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI ARABIAN REFINERIES CO SJSC 37.40 4.55% 2,452 89,725 TIHAMA ADVERTISING AND PUBLIC 27.00 -2.96% 1,275 34,944 ETIHAD ATHEEB TELECOMM 3.40 4.41% 4,071 13,550 SAUDI PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 38.60 -2.59% 795 31,094 FAWAZ ABDULAZIZ ALHOKAIR CO SJSC 31.50 4.13% 717 22,140 ALLIANZ SAUDI FRANSI COOPERATIVE 44.50 -2.25% 545 24,552 ALUJAIN CORPORATION SJSC 19.35 3.88% 2,249 42,710 AL AHLIA FOR COOPERATIVE INSUR 6.90 -2.17% 2,520 17,580 RABIGH REFINING AND PETROCHEM 12.55 3.59% 12,157 149,932 AL ALAMIYA FOR COOPERATIVE 27.70 -2.17% 484 13,565 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Top Losers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) KUWAIT NATIONAL CINEMA CO 1120.00 8.93% 35 38 CONTRACTING AND MARINE SERVICES 63.00 -6.35% 146 10 SHUAIBA INDUSTRIAL COMPANY KPSC 310.00 8.06% 15 5 HAYAT COMMUNICATIONS CO KSCP 89.00 -5.62% 138 13 INOVEST BSC 102.00 7.84% 4,302 423 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 47.50 -5.26% 567 28 AQAR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS CO 69.00 7.25% 789 53 AL-SALAM GROUP HOLDING CO KSCP 58.00 -5.17% 4,555 271 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 74.00 6.76% 465 33 ALIMTIAZ INVESTMENT GROUP CO 196.00 -5.10% 15,174 3,054 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 7.79 9.88% 13 95 SOUHAG NATIONAL COMPANY FOOD 54.60 -11.36% 88 5,139 Top Gainers Top Gainers DELTA INSURANCE CO SAE Egypt DoD % DoD % Top Gainers Qatar Close * Close * Top Gainers ABU QIR FERTILIZERS AND CHEMICAL Top Losers 100.83 8.88% 18 1,700 INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING 10.06 -8.95% 67 702 TOURISM URBANIZATION CO SAE 5.96 6.71% 3 15 UPPER EGYPT FLOUR MILLS SAE 102.06 -8.78% 1 86 SHARKIA NATIONAL COMPANY 3.52 4.55% 5 15 ZAHRAA MAADI INVESTMENT & DEV 23.25 -8.60% 3 66 KAFR EL ZAYAT PESTICIDES AND CHEM 27.63 4.34% 18 497 EGYPTIAN IRON AND STEEL CO SAE 4.90 -8.37% 2,783 14,260 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 20.20 4.95% 46 901 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 21.29 -5.12% 48 1,045 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 65.90 2.43% 198 12,882 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 58.10 -2.58% 65 3,855 QATARI GERMAN COMPANY 9.69 2.17% 27 256 QATAR CINEMA AND FILM DISTRIB 28.10 -2.14% 0 8 QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 10.00 2.00% 8 77 QATAR FUEL QSC 158.00 -1.90% 75 11,960 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 69.00 1.45% 103 7,066 QATAR ISLAMIC BANK SAQ 109.20 -1.74% 99 10,920 Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , February 14, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 77,196 96.50 0.0% 5.5% 2,977 76,611 98.50 65.00 16 1.8 4.1% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 42,621 18.00 1.1% -4.3% 878 4,305 20.20 16.05 17 3.7 4.4% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,265 146.90 0.0% 0.0% 133 5,371 157.27 121.36 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 34,665 65.00 0.4% -10.3% 597 10,352 74.00 51.00 15 2.2 6.2% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 28,273 65.25 0.4% 3.6% 960 16,700 67.50 48.60 13 2.1 2.3% 6 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 27,220 24.50 3.2% 9.4% 6,526 42,635 25.30 14.00 48 1.6 0.0% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 22,025 41.30 0.2% -3.1% 226 2,487 46.30 32.00 9 1.4 3.8% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 19,208 115.60 0.8% -1.6% 74 2,343 122.00 94.50 24 2.1 3.5% 9 DP World Ltd AE 16,766 20.20 -0.1% 15.4% 144 794 20.36 15.53 17 2.0 1.5% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 16,666 67.25 0.0% -10.0% 81 1,455 76.00 45.00 82 6.1 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 16,295 13.30 -0.7% 3.5% 3,286 11,899 13.50 10.50 10 1.6 7.5% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,873 7.63 -0.1% 7.0% 5,707 11,855 7.79 5.38 12 1.3 0.0% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,506 68.00 0.0% -0.7% 44 800 70.00 46.13 27 4.1 1.3% 14 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 14,451 10.10 1.4% 1.1% 520 1,429 10.80 7.60 11 1.1 4.5% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,313 720.00 0.0% 10.8% 1,248 2,948 750.00 550.00 14 1.3 4.2% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 13,104 8.66 0.1% 2.0% 715 1,686 9.00 7.10 7 0.9 4.6% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 12,930 41.50 -0.5% 6.4% 846 9,367 43.80 27.80 121 1.8 0.0% 18 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 11,439 21.45 1.2% -11.9% 402 2,300 25.20 15.90 8 1.0 4.2% 19 Kingdom Holding Co SA 11,315 11.45 -0.4% -4.2% 436 1,332 13.15 9.90 83 1.5 0.0% 20 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 11,259 7.39 1.0% 7.1% 1,986 3,996 7.68 5.66 10 1.4 5.4% 21 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 11,066 15.19 0.5% 0.5% 1,146 4,779 20.24 14.20 23 1.4 3.3% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 10,318 600.00 0.0% 11.1% 3,083 6,070 630.00 427.27 15 1.7 0.0% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 9,361 106.40 -1.5% 4.5% 66 1,930 110.00 81.50 16 1.5 2.8% 24 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,248 2.61 1.2% -0.4% 2,639 1,875 3.10 2.46 18 2.2 3.8% 25 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 8,820 22.05 0.2% -11.8% 49 290 25.90 16.40 8 1.1 3.4% 26 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,680 10.85 0.5% -6.1% 805 2,329 11.80 8.55 8 0.9 6.5% 27 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,587 57.25 0.4% 6.0% 161 2,456 59.75 27.50 14 2.0 5.2% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,445 41.00 -0.7% 9.0% 462 5,204 43.35 32.10 15 2.4 4.9% 29 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,437 6.27 0.2% 12.6% 5,157 8,803 6.29 4.90 9 1.3 7.2% 30 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 8,065 25.10 0.4% -3.8% 85 568 27.80 18.00 7 1.1 4.2% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 546,418 3.2% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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