GCC Daily Market Update - 21 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 21 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Value (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) Performance MTD (%) YTD (%) 2,351.2 20,624.1 5,324.7 7,299.9 11,827.6 4,865.0 88,587.7 19,251.1 24,146.1 3,240.0 28,661.6 NA NA NA (0.1) 70.6 (2.6) (242.8) 16.5 112.3 37.9 192.8 NA NA NA (0.0) 0.6 (0.1) (0.3) 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 3.2 3.8 4.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.1 3.4 2.6 3.6 5.0 4.4 9.5 2.2 3.0 0.1 13.4 0.7 9.8 4.4 7.6 10,912.8 7,071.9 4,580.2 3,604.0 6,779.8 5,852.3 1,325.5 1,672.0 3,074.2 (4.2) (68.3) (40.6) (41.9) (11.1) (6.1) 4.2 0.3 (1.5) (0.0) (1.0) (0.9) (1.2) (0.2) (0.1) 0.3 0.0 (0.1) 3.0 (0.4) 0.7 (1.1) (0.8) 1.3 1.7 1.9 3.0 4.6 (1.9) 0.7 2.1 17.9 1.2 8.6 5.6 5.7 56.2 53.4 2.8 1,237.6 270.7 0.4 NA NA 0.0 NA 0.7 NA NA 0.0 NA 0.9 1.7 (11.0) 2.4 0.6 (1.1) (0.0) (25.5) 7.5 9.6 Source: Bloomberg Global Global indices closed on a mixed note on Monday. US stock markets were closed on account of President’s Day. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% mainly due to gains in Mining and Telecommunications firms. While gains in Miners were due to higher metal prices, Telecom stocks got a boost from Deutsche Telekom AG, which gained 2.5% on news that Sprint owner Softbank Corp. was targeting its T-Mobile US Inc. unit for a merger. Progress on Greece talks between IMF and EU further supported sentiments. FTSE 100 ended in the red, with Unilever being the biggest laggard as Kraft Heinz said it has abandoned its proposed merger. In Asia, Hang Seng was up 0.5% mainly due to gains in Banking and Consumer shares. Shanghai Composite also ended in the green on the back of strong earnings report by Chinese Automakers and Coal producers. GCC Most Gulf indices fell on Monday, due to broad based profit booking. Dubai’s benchmark index was down 1.2% mainly due to fall in construction company Arabtec, which has been a victim of sell-off after posting disappointing results for 2016, last week. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark declined 0.9% on the back of a 4.1% drop in Dana Gas after it made a downward revision to its unaudited preliminary results for 2016. Saudi Arabian main index ended in the red mainly due to weakness in the Banking counter. Arabian Cement, on the other hand rose 1.8% after its board recommended a cash dividend of SAR 2 per share for H2-16. Qatar QE index declined marginally, as it witnessed selling pressure in Industrial and Transport sectors. Gulf institutions turned net sellers and there was increased profit booking by their domestic counterparts in the market. Trade turnover expanded amid fall in volumes in the market, where Real Estate, Banking, Telecom and Insurance sectors together accounted for more than three-fourth of the total volumes. Out of 44 stocks listed, 38 stocks exchanged hands of which 21 rose and 17 declined. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 15.4 1.6 3.8 107.2 11,000 DSM 20 15.9 1.6 3.7 76.0 10,500 GCC Fundamentals Qatar DSM Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.5 1.6 3.3 1,005.4 10,000 UAE (ADX) 12.9 1.4 5.3 67.8 9,500 UAE (DFM) 15.1 1.3 3.7 139.0 Kuwait (KSE) 23.2 1.2 3.5 124.7 Oman (MSM) 11.1 1.2 4.9 14.7 Bahrain (BAX) 9.0 0.4 4.2 2.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Medicare Group Qatar Islamic Insurance National Leasing Qatar Elect & Water Co Ezdan Holding Group Top Losers Industries Qatar Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Widam Food Co Qatar Navigation Dlala Holding Close Price 79.9 61.0 15.6 232.0 15.6 7.2 2.0 0.3 3.0 0.2 9.9 3.4 1.8 1.3 1.3 27.0 20.6 1.8 2.2 3.2 (16.6) (10.3) 30.0 12.6 8.5 436.6 34.5 297.4 14.4 88.1 153.1 57.2 16.6 865.6 23.6 117.5 20.7 65.6 94.3 20.0 (2.2) (0.4) (1.0) (1.4) (0.3) (1.8) (1.7) (1.5) (1.5) (1.3) 0.0 (2.1) (3.5) (1.4) (6.9) 10.8 (16.6) 42.6 (0.2) 52.2 195.6 24.1 2.4 17.8 79.7 NA 111.5 12.0 31.1 145.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 9,000 24/Nov 40.0 10,912.8 20.0 0.0 8/Dec 22/Dec 5/Jan Index Volume (mn) 19/Jan 2/Feb 16/Feb Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,059.0 6,332.0 3,356.2 4,374.4 2,411.9 1,338.0 2,620.3 1D Change (%) (0.1) 1.0 (0.4) 0.2 0.7 0.3 (0.2) Buy (%) 30.6 20.8 51.4 16.6 32.0 48.6 Sell (%) 30.6 37.7 68.3 7.9 23.8 31.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 21 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  The British government has no intention of revoking its withdrawal from the EU once the formal exit process has been triggered, Prime Minister’s spokesman said. Ms. May plans to trigger Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by the end of March-17, beginning up to two years of divorce talks. (Source: Reuters)  Germany's producer prices climbed 2.4% YoY in January-17, the fastest pace recorded in nearly five years, following a 1% YoY increase in December-16. (Source: Hellenic Shipping News)  Greece and its international lenders agreed to let teams of experts work out new reforms to Greek pensions, income tax and labour market that would allow Athens to eventually qualify for more cheap loans, euro zone officials said. (Source: Reuters)  Chinese banks had more than CNY 26tn (USD 3.8tn) of wealthmanagement products held off their balance sheets at the end of December-16, a rise of 30% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)  Japanese exports’ growth softened markedly to 1.3% YoY in January17, down from a rise of 5.4% in December-16. (Source: FT) GCC NEWS  DIFC could exceed its target of more than doubling the number of financial firms registered within it by 2024 if interest continues from markets such as China, India and the Middle East. The total listed firms increased 10% YoY to 447 in 2016. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi awarded a 4% stake in its giant onshore oil concession to CEFC China Energy Co for a fee of AED 3.3bn (USD 900mn), stateowned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai school fees are set to increase by up to 4.8% YoY in 2017, according to the new Education Cost Index (ECI) which has been set at 2.4% by Dubai Statistics Centre. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Saudi Arabia National Automotive Manufacturing Company signed an agreement with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) to increase the aluminum content in vehicles produced in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Al Musafir Company, a subsidiary of Al Tayyar Travel Group Holding, is embarking on a strategic partnership with Al Rajhi Bank to provide hotel booking service through Al Musafer Company’s apps and website, granting special discounts for credit cardholders. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Oman’s tourism and hospitality industry is building momentum, with total investment in the sector set to hit USD 1.17bn by 2026, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (Source: Oman Observer)  Port Services Corporation’s board recommended a cash dividend of 55% of the paid up capital to the shareholders. This is subject to the approval of shareholders at its annual general meeting, which is scheduled on 27th March-17. (Source: Times of Oman)  Almost 40 new companies invested a total of BHD 106mn (USD 281mn) in Bahrain in 2016, as a result of the efforts of the Economic Development Board. (Source: Gulf Daily News).  The Central Bank of Bahrain announced that the monthly issue of the Sukuk Al-Salam Islamic securities, Sukuk Al-Salam, has been subscribed by 100%. The expected return on the issue, which begins on 22nd February-17 and matures on 24th May-17, is 2.23 %. (Source: CBB)  Kuwait’s parliamentary financial and economic affairs committee approved a bill that revoked a proposed rise in prices and rates of fuel, electricity and water. (Source: KUNA)  Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) appointed Farouk Bastaki as managing director to replace Bader Mohammed al-Saad. The KIA is one of the world's biggest sovereign funds with assets estimated at USD 592bn, according to SWFI. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  UAE based Dana Gas revised down its unaudited preliminary results for 2016 to a net loss of USD 88mn from previously reported net profit of USD 33mn. (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatar banks’ total assets declined 0.8% MoM to QAR 1,261.9bn in January-17. Credit facilities increased 1.2% MoM to QAR 854.1bn.  DIFC reported a net profit of AED 421mn for the year 2016 with 14% YoY increase in the actively registered companies operating from the centre. (Source: Gulf News)  Total customer deposits of banks in Qatar increased 1.3% MoM to QAR 736.0bn in January-17 mainly due to increase in private sector deposits to QAR 502.9bn. (Source: Qatar Central Bank)  The private banking arm of Singapore’s second-biggest lender OCBC is targeting annual growth of assets of more than 20% from its new office in Dubai, according to its CEO. (Source: Arabian Business)  The establishment of international arbitration centers in Qatar, as provisioned in the new law on arbitration, would go a long way in enhancing the confidence of foreign investors, according to Qatar Arbitration Centre board member Sheikh Thani bin Ali al Thani. (Source:  Ras Al Khaimah property developer, RAK Properties’ net profits increased 9.4% YoY to AED 175mn while revenues increased 6.0% YoY to AED 390mn in 2016. (Source: WAM)  Dubai Holding announced the launch of Dubai Holding Future Investments, DHx, a regionally focused company, to support the growth and development of young innovative businesses in the region. (Source: WAM)  Saudi Arabia boosted oil exports and production in 2016 to the highest monthly averages on record. Exports climbed to 7.65mn bpd on average in 2016 from 7.39mn bpd in 2015 while production rose to 10.46mn bpd from 10.19mn, on average, over the same period. (Source: (Source: Qatar Central Bank) Qatar Tribune)  Nakilat’s net profit declined to QAR 955mn in 2016 from QAR 984mn in 2015 as the decline in oil and gas prices and overcapacity in the shipping industry placed a downward pressure on the shipping markets and asset prices. The company has recommended 10% cash dividend for 2016, to be approved by shareholders at an annual general assembly meeting on 12th March-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Al Khaliji Bank has put in place a medium term strategy that will run until 2018 to further enhance its growth with a focus on minimizing potential risks, according to the bank’s Chairman. (Source: Gulf Times)  Saudi Arabia is preparing to provide 1.5mn housing units in the next five years, Saudi Minister of Housing Majed Bin Abdullah Al Huqail said. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  A pipeline and associated facilities to supply jet fuel to the Hamad International Airport (HIA) from Ras Laffan would be completed probably next year, according to Qatar Petroleum CEO Saad Sherida al-Kaabi. (Source: Gulf Times)  Rania Nashar was named chief executive of Samba Financial Group, becoming the first female CEO of a listed Saudi commercial bank in line with the government's economic and social reforms. (Source: Arabian  The ambitious expansion plans announced by the national carrier, Qatar Airways, will spur demand for jet fuel and the Laffan Refinery 2 is well placed to meet this demand, Qatar Petroleum CEO said. (Source: Bloomberg) Business) Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 21 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value 1.0644 USD/QAR 3.6413 113.1000 EUR/QAR 3.8758 EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2493 JPY/QAR 0.0322 USD/CHF 1.0028 GBP/QAR 4.5491 USD/CAD 1.3106 CHF/QAR 3.6311 AUD/USD 0.7688 CAD/QAR 2.7783 NZD/USD 0.7190 AUD/QAR 2.7994 USD/INR 66.4250 INR/QAR 0.0548 USD/TRY 3.6245 TRY/QAR 1.0046 USD/ZAR 13.0450 ZAR/QAR 0.2791 USD/BRL 3.0878 BRL/QAR 1.1793 FX Commentary The dollar index edged marginally lower in a thin trade due to a holiday in US on account of President’s Day. Statements by Fed member Loretta Mester, citing comfort with raising rates had little impact on the greenback, which has witnessed gains in the past week amidst hawkish stance by Fed officials and a series of positive economic numbers. GBP posted strong gains, after a poor performance in the past week, on concerns of economic growth post disappointing macro numbers. The currency on Monday benefitted from data showing strong order books of British manufacturers. EUR was steady during the day, with volatility low on account of the US holiday. Positive German PPI reading lent some support to the common currency. The yen closed lower against the greenback as Japanese January17 export growth numbers missed estimates. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.69 0.71 0.78 1.05 1.74 EURIBOR (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.11) QAIBOR 1.23 1.38 1.56 1.85 2.59 SAIBOR NA 1.02 1.54 1.85 2.26 EIBOR 0.61 0.73 0.98 1.39 2.05 BMIBOR 0.55 0.73 1.23 1.70 2.18 NA NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 LIBOR KIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 3.41% 3.04% 2.68% 4.47% 1.79% 2.0% 1.93% 1.21% 2.25% 2.44% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 3.05% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 24.6 (1.9) Turkey 241.6 (5.2) UK 29.9 (3.1) Brazil 231.4 (21.3) Germany 25.1 8.2 Egypt 392.8 (7.2) France 67.4 37.7 Abu Dhabi 50.9 (21.1) 193.0 58.4 Bahrain 232.4 (160.4) 2.22% 2.04% 2.0% 2.40% 2.67% 1.58% 2.11% 1.0% 0.0% 0.81% 2 Yrs 1.36% 1.15% 1.61% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 1,065.5 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 82.4 Dubai 125.5 (36.7) Russia 179.0 (51.0) Qatar 75.2 (20.8) Japan 23.9 (10.2) Saudi Arabia 104.3 (54.7) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index MoM Period Survey Prior Dec (0.20%) 0.30% 10:45 France CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jan F 1.60% 1.60% 10:45 France CPI MoM Jan F (0.20%) (0.20%) 10:45 France CPI YoY Jan F 1.40% 1.40% 11:00 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI Feb P 53.5 53.6 11:00 France Markit France Services PMI Feb P 53.9 54.1 11:00 France Markit France Composite PMI Feb P 53.8 54.1 11:30 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb P 56 56.4 11:30 Germany Markit Germany Services PMI Feb P 53.6 53.4 11:30 Germany Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Feb P 54.8 54.8 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55 55.2 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Feb P 53.7 53.7 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Feb P 54.3 54.4 12:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Jan (14.0b) 6.9b 17:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55.3 55 17:45 US Markit US Services PMI Feb P 55.8 55.6 17:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Feb P -- 55.8 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 21 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 2nd February 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 9.4 0.0 8.2 1.7 4.6 4.9 3.2 0.0 4.5 5.9 2.1 6.0 3.5 7.6 6.0 5.0 3.6 4.8 0.0 8.6 5.1 4.5 5.3 6.5 3.4 4.3 4.5 3.4 1.8 6.4 4.4 4.2 5.0 3.3 1.8 3.4 7.4 2.3 6.4 3.3 1.9 6.7 4.4 2.9 0.0 2.3 3.0 5.2 5.4 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.3 1.0 2.3 1.0 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.7 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.5 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.9 16.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.0 80.0 13.8 14.7 (H) (‫)م‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.6 13.1 11.1 27.6 11.9 21.3 7.6 22.0 41.1 12.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.4 13.7 6.6 12.3 14.6 32.7 20.9 19.1 15.8 24.9 11.4 11.4 18.7 17.3 12.7 19.6 3.6 13.3 12.0 13.6 23.0 16.9 14.5 18.7 15.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.6 15.4 13.7 11.9 13.1 14.4 EPS (QR) 3.3 1.9 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 5.2 14.7 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 0.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 5.1 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 8.0 2.5 1.2 1.4 4.3 11.1 4.1 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 3.5 1.8 7.8 2.9 3.1 BV/Share (QR) 25.5 43.6 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 10.3 60.3 37.5 71.5 10.0 38.2 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.6 76.8 8.5 14.3 16.8 106.9 44.3 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.0 75.2 20.4 31.9 52.0 24.6 20.9 21.5 34.2 72.5 22.0 39.4 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.6 23.6 25.9 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 36.0 31.8 21.3 36.6 58.0 16.3 40.8 15.5 9.8 106.0 68.0 164.0 10.1 65.9 83.2 178.5 28.1 160.0 9.9 11.6 69.3 88.4 14.6 29.6 115.5 15.6 222.0 55.5 47.1 91.4 20.2 18.3 84.0 40.5 54.0 34.3 15.0 14.4 22.4 103.0 9.5 54.0 24.1 93.3 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4