GCC Daily Market Update - 6 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 6 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,587.8 8.0 23,539.2 22.9 6,295.6 59.2 7,560.4 5.0 13,478.9 37.9 5,518.0 7.5 111,292.8 (1,702.1) 22,539.1 NA 28,603.6 85.0 3,371.7 (11.6) 33,654.5 (31.0) 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 (1.5) NA 0.3 (0.3) (0.1) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.9 0.3 1.0 2.4 1.3 (0.6) 1.3 15.6 19.1 29.4 5.8 17.4 13.5 42.4 17.9 30.0 8.6 26.4 8,126.9 6,978.7 4,450.7 3,585.5 6,468.2 5,055.7 1,277.5 1,620.3 3,551.0 (19.3) 22.2 (14.5) (36.7) (80.3) 15.5 (5.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) 0.3 (0.3) (1.0) (1.2) 0.3 (0.4) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) 0.6 (0.6) (1.4) (0.7) 0.9 0.1 (0.1) 0.6 (21.9) (3.5) (1.8) 2.6 13.9 (12.8) 5.1 3.1 22.2 62.1 55.6 3.0 1,269.2 311.8 1.5 1.1 0.0 (8.9) (2.6) 2.4 2.0 1.7 (0.7) (0.8) 1.5 2.6 5.6 (0.1) 1.4 9.2 3.6 (19.9) 10.2 24.4 Global US markets closed higher on Friday, with all three major indices closing at record high levels, despite the release of sluggish US jobs data. Nasdaq index outperformed its peer indices, led by gains in index heavyweight Apple, after the company’s quarterly earnings surpassed market expectations. S&P 500 index rose 0.3%, helped by gains in Health Care and Consumer Discretionary shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3%. However, losses in the Spanish Banking shares limited the broad market gains. The UK’s benchmark rose 0.1%, continuing to gain for the second straight session, after Bank of England’s dovish outlook on the further rate hikes. The Japanese equity markets remained closed on Friday, on account of a public holiday. The Hong Kong benchmark rose 0.3%, led by gains in Tencent Holdings. GCC Most GCC markets closed lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark opened lower, as several top Saudi ministers were detained over the charges of corruption. However, the benchmark closed higher, driven by gains in Banking stocks, including National Commercial Bank and Banque Saudi Fransi. In Dubai, Real Estate shares were among the top losers, amid speculations that a crackdown in the Saudi top ministries might dampen the real estate investment in the region. The Kuwaiti benchmark dropped 1.2%, led by losses in Banking and Financial Services shares. Qatar The QE index fell 0.2%, declining for the second consecutive session. Increased selling pressure from Qatari retail and institutional investors contributed to the overall losses in the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes increased during yesterday’s trading session, with Banking sector alone accounting for more than 52% of the total volume. Out of 45 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 32 declined, 7 advanced and 2 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.7 1.2 4.7 33.1 DSM 20 13.0 1.2 4.8 27.3 9,000 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.3 1.6 3.4 1,062.2 8,500 UAE (ADX) 16.3 1.3 4.5 17.9 UAE (DFM) 23.0 1.3 4.0 63.5 Kuwait (KSE) 16.5 1.1 5.4 57.6 Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.0 5.2 3.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.1 0.8 6.1 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Dlala Holding Doha Bank Qatar Islamic Insurance Masraf Al Rayan Industries Qatar Top Losers Islamic Holding Group Qatar Intl Islamic Qatar National Cement National Leasing Qatari Investors Group Close Price 16.4 28.4 49.0 35.5 96.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 (23.9) (15.6) (3.2) (5.7) (18.3) (24.7) (17.6) (1.2) 5.2 (3.0) 691.4 143.2 3.4 243.1 159.2 31.5 47.1 61.0 9.8 28.3 (1.6) (1.9) (2.0) (0.3) (0.8) (4.7) (3.9) (3.2) (3.0) (2.9) (48.3) (25.0) (22.0) (36.0) (51.7) (43.5) (22.8) (18.4) (33.3) (50.8) 0.1 58.2 583.2 8.7 2.0 11.0 61.6 NA 33.8 14.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 24.9 9.1 11.6 12.8 22.5 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 8,000 9/Aug 15.0 8,126.9 10.0 5.0 0.0 23/Aug 6/Sep 20/Sep Index Volume (mn) 4/Oct 18/Oct 1/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,548.5 4,655.6 2,516.1 2,990.5 1,593.1 1,043.8 1,649.2 1D Change (%) (0.1) (1.3) (0.7) (0.1) (1.1) (0.2) (0.5) Buy (%) 41.2 12.1 53.3 11.5 35.2 46.7 Sell (%) 57.0 21.1 78.1 13.0 8.9 21.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 6 , 2017  US trade deficit increased by 1.6% MoM to USD 43.5bn in September17 driven by increase in imports by 1.2% MoM to USD 240.0bn and exports by 1.1% MoM to USD 196.8bn. (Source: Market Insider)  Saudi Arabia based investment firm, Kingdom Holding, reported an increase in its net profit by 170.0% YoY to SAR 248.0mn (USD 66.0mn) and revenue by 76.0% YoY to SAR 550.0mn in Q3-17. This was driven by increase in hotel and operating revenues, larger dividend income, and income and gains on investments. (Source: Zawya)  Australia’s seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover remained steady over the month in September-17. Sales at department stores increased by 2.1% MoM while clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing decreased by 0.7% MoM. (Source: Market Insider)  Saudi Arabia based investment firm, Kingdom Holding, reported an increase in its net profit by 170.0% YoY to SAR 248.0mn (USD 66.0mn) in Q3-17 driven by increase in hotel and operating revenues, larger dividend income, and income and gains on investments. (Source: Zawya)  Bank of Japan’s Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that economic growth is gathering momentum and is increasing the chances of hitting the 2.0% inflation target. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain based real estate group, Manara Developments, has announced that its 58,885 sq.ft, “The Workshops at Investment Gateway - Bahrain project” is more than 80% complete. (Source: Trade  China’s central bank injected CNY 404.0bn of one-year funds under the Medium-term Lending Facility and kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.2% to stabilize money supply. (Source: Market Insider)  Turkey’s CPI increased by 11.9 YoY and 2.1% MoM in October-17. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 12.7% YoY and transport costs rose by 16.8% YoY. (Source: Market Insider) GLOBAL NEWS  Turkey's foreign currency credit rating was kept steady at BB while its local currency credit rating was rated at BB+ by S&P. It added that strengthened exports positively contributed to the country's GDP and expects the economy to grow by 5.0% in 2017. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS Arabia)  Kuwait based Burgan bank is planning for refinancing its USD 350.0mn loan due in December-17, sources said. The original debt facility was raised in 2015 with a group of seven banks, including regional and international lenders. (Source: Zawya)  Oman and China trade annually is touching OMR 8.0bn and the Chinese government has already pledged an extra OMR 5.0bn to Oman’s Duqm project, China’s ambassador Yu Fulong said. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman based Muscat bourse has reported an increase in its market turnover by 25.5% MoM to OMR 89.5mn in September-17 driven by active trading in the shares of a number of listed companies in the banking and telecommunications sectors. (Source: Times of Oman)  UAE had 7,531 projects worth AED 927.4bn (USD 252.7bn) under construction in September-17, according to BNC Network. Dubai accounted for 40.4% of the total projects to 3,046 with estimated value of USD 118.7bn followed by Abu Dhabi with 971 projects worth USD 104.4bn. (Source: Zawya)  Oman based insurer National Life and General Insurance has received an approval from Kuwaiti authorities to start its operation in the country. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based logistic company, Aramex, has reported an increase in its net profit by 13.0% YoY to AED 81.6mn and revenue by 9.0% YoY to AED 1.1bn in Q3-17 driven by strong performance in cross-border ecommerce and all its geographies and business segments. (Source: Times  Qatar and Turkey are ready to assess each other’s land, sea and air transportation opportunities and to take reasonable steps in strengthening cooperation in the transportation field, Turkey's Minister of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communication said. (Source: AA) of Oman)  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is expected to sign USD 6.0bn loan which has received commitments from a group of 13 banks, sources said. The club loan has been largely oversubscribed, having attracted commitments of worth USD 750.0mn each from a group of 13 banks. (Source: Zawya)  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is planning to introduce a share sale of its stake in fuel service stations and retail convenience stores in December-17. It will list more than 10.0% of its fuel retail business and one or two more businesses later, sources said. (Source: Zawya)  Sharjah based, Air Arabia, reported an increase in its net profit by 27.0% YoY to AED 376.0mn (USD 102.3mn) and revenue increased by 4.0% YoY to AED 1.2bn (USD 315.7mn) in Q3-17. This was driven by continuous demand for value driven product combined with the cost control measures and strong growth strategy. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s recent move to liberalize the oil field sector by increasing transparency and encouraging foreign investment via the revision of key pieces of legislation has made easier multinational corporations to do business in the kingdom without local partners, according to Strategy&, part of the PwC network. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia has exempted few goods and services from 5.0% VAT which includes certain medications and medical equipment, supply of gold, silver and platinum for investment purposes and many others. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia has received proposals from Russian nuclear group, Rosatom, for nuclear power generation and would bid if a tender was announced. (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s more than 250 companies earned QAR 500.0mn in 2016 from international market, through Qatar Development Bank’s (QDB) export agency, Tasdeer said QDB’s CEO. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s public sector deposits with commercial banks increased by 2.5% MoM and 68.4% YoY to QAR 302.6bn in September-17. Total broad money supply (M2) increased by 14.5% YoY to QAR 564.8bn and cash and cash equivalent (including deposits) increased by 17.5% YoY to QAR 797.8bn in the same month. (Source: Gulf Times)  Efforts to stabilise Qatar’s banking system has been “viewed favorably”, Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz) has said and noted the “pressure” on sovereign ratings has been “alleviated”. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Chamber and members of a business delegation from Serbia are focusing on enhancing cooperation and are thus offering opportunities to Qatari businessmen in Serbia, who want to diversify their investments in tourism, hotels, water desalination and sports to work in Serbia. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar has increased liquidity in the building and construction sector and major public sector investments, according to SAK holdings report. It has also injected funds to ensure the completion of major infrastructure projects. (Source: Gulf Times)  The blockade has not impacted the contract awarded to Qatar, according to MEED report. Since June-17, the total value of contract Qatar received were worth USD 3.1bn which accounts for an average of USD 722.0mn a month. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airways has agreed to buy 9.6% stake Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. for HKD 5.2bn (USD 662.0mn) from Hong Kong based Kingboard Chemical Holdings Ltd. The holding company is ready to sell 378.2mn shares to Qatar Airways. (Source: Market Insider) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 6 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1638 USD/QAR 3.6415 114.0700 EUR/QAR 4.2380 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3107 JPY/QAR 0.0319 USD/CHF 1.0007 GBP/QAR 4.7729 USD/CAD 1.2764 CHF/QAR 3.6390 AUD/USD 0.7650 CAD/QAR 2.8529 NZD/USD 0.6907 AUD/QAR 2.7857 USD/INR 64.0475 INR/QAR 0.0569 USD/TRY 3.8875 TRY/QAR 0.9367 USD/ZAR 14.2240 ZAR/QAR 0.2560 USD/BRL 3.3138 BRL/QAR 1.0989 FX Commentary The USD inched higher against a basket of currencies on Friday, with the dollar index rising 0.3% to settle at 94.928. Gains in the USD were triggered after the US ISM services activity index rose to a 12-year high level and US factory orders data topped market expectations. However, discouraging US non-farm payrolls data capped the gains in the greenback. The EUR fell against the USD, amid broad based strength in the greenback. The GBP inched higher against the USD, as better than expected UK services activity data lifted investor sentiment in the GBP. The CAD strengthened against the USD, as stronger than expected Canadian jobs data paved way for another rate hike from Bank of Canada in the coming period. The TRY fell against the USD, after the Turkish inflation data came in at 10-month high level. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.39 1.86 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.05 2.18 2.24 2.48 2.99 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.47 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.98 1.11 1.32 1.58 2.22 BMIBOR 1.03 1.23 1.75 2.08 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.62% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 UK Germany France 2.0% 1.83% 1.0% 1.03% 2.32% 1.64% 1.44% 1.27% 2.56% 2.01% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.55% 1.99% 2.19% 2.34% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 2.18% 3.30% 4.42% 2.82% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.07% 3.04% 1.99% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 0.0 Turkey 199.7 (6.8) 24.6 2.0 Brazil 175.0 (41.8) 12.2 (6.6) Egypt 352.5 6.1 20.3 (13.1) Abu Dhabi 60.0 15.8 Italy 119.1 (43.0) Bahrain 270.3 46.8 Greece 509.7 (278.3) Dubai 134.4 20.8 Russia 135.0 (23.4) Qatar 103.1 39.3 Japan 34.1 7.0 83.7 (9.1) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 10:00 Germany Factory Orders MoM Period Survey Prior Sep (1.10%) 3.60% 11:50 France 11:55 Germany Markit France Services PMI Oct F 57.4 57.4 Markit Germany Services PMI Oct F 55.2 55.2 12:00 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct F 54.9 54.9 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct F 55.9 55.9 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3,151.3 36.1 5.2 242.9 190.6 (31.9) NA NA NA 247.5 37.6 14.4 Savola 5,700.0 (2.5) (15.1) 829.0 378.0 261.5 Agility NA NA NA 17.8 17.4 5.8 Saudi Investment Bank/The NA NA NA 358.4 63.3 0.8 Emaar Economic City NA NA NA 27.0 NA (23.7) 1,143.6 8.9 (0.3) 81.6 13.0 (15.8) Saudi Ground Services Co NA NA NA 160.1 (17.2) 30.9 Al Tayyar Travel Group NA NA NA 132.0 (29.7) (37.7) Saudi Arabian Mining Co Kingdom Holding Co Aramex Pjsc Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 6 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 0.0 0.0 10.6 3.2 6.3 5.6 5.1 0.0 4.9 8.5 2.6 6.8 3.8 6.3 4.5 6.4 4.0 7.8 0.0 11.5 5.9 6.6 7.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.8 5.0 4.2 4.9 4.2 3.5 7.6 6.6 4.3 5.6 42.9 3.3 3.8 7.1 5.2 8.4 5.3 0.0 9.5 6.5 4.0 0.0 3.3 3.9 6.7 6.7 6.3 4.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.6 2.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 3.4 0.6 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 0.6 1.7 1.1 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.3 41.1 27.0 8.1 57.7 9.4 12.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 8.7 8.6 20.6 9.9 6.2 28.3 14.2 37.5 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.7 10.3 5.2 10.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.4 22.4 14.3 12.2 14.1 9.7 11.0 18.4 24.1 9.1 20.2 54.2 11.6 21.2 8.8 13.0 50.4 7.7 10.9 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.3 11.3 10.2 19.0 12.5 12.3 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 26.5 16.4 28.4 31.5 11.9 35.5 9.8 6.0 96.9 47.1 121.0 7.4 63.5 66.3 141.0 25.0 90.3 6.5 6.9 59.6 68.0 7.4 17.2 6.1 96.0 12.4 180.0 28.3 39.5 61.0 10.7 14.0 45.0 40.0 49.0 29.8 9.4 7.9 13.1 88.0 6.8 41.0 15.0 52.4 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4