GCC Daily Market Update - 31 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 31 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,572.8 23,348.7 6,227.6 7,487.8 13,229.6 5,493.6 108,466.8 22,011.7 28,336.2 3,390.3 33,266.2 (8.2) (85.5) 14.1 (17.2) 12.0 (0.5) 582.8 3.2 (102.7) (26.5) 108.9 (0.3) (0.4) 0.2 (0.2) 0.1 (0.0) 0.5 0.0 (0.4) (0.8) 0.3 2.1 4.2 4.2 1.6 3.1 3.1 5.4 8.1 2.8 1.2 6.3 14.9 18.1 28.0 4.8 15.2 13.0 38.8 15.2 28.8 9.2 24.9 8,196.5 6,945.3 4,456.7 3,629.9 6,561.6 4,982.3 1,276.5 1,635.6 3,518.1 62.1 (11.2) (6.1) (9.8) (46.2) 15.7 (0.3) (0.8) 3.7 0.8 (0.2) (0.1) (0.3) (0.7) 0.3 (0.0) (0.0) 0.1 (1.4) (4.6) 1.3 1.8 (1.8) (3.0) (0.5) (0.1) 2.3 (21.5) (3.7) (2.0) 2.8 14.2 (13.8) 4.6 3.7 21.1 60.9 54.2 3.0 1,277.7 311.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 9.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 7.8 0.7 0.3 5.6 4.6 (0.6) (0.3) 5.1 7.0 0.6 (19.7) 10.9 23.9 Source: Bloomberg Global US markets closed mostly lower yesterday, amid reports that the tax cuts in the nation would take place gradually, as against an instant cut expected by the market. Shares of retailers and health-care companies slipped following a slew of analysts’ stock downgrades. Investors were also cautious ahead of the central bank meet, due on Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1%, as Spanish stocks rose, after the nation’s government took control of the Catalonia region, after its push for independence. The UK’s benchmark fell 0.2%, as the GBP received a boost following better than expected British mortgage approvals data. Housebuilding shares were among the notable losers, following a broker downgrades. The Chinese benchmark declined 0.8%, amid sell-off in the nation’s bond market. Japan’s benchmark was unchanged, after 7th consecutive weekly gains. GCC Most GCC markets closed lower yesterday. In Saudi Arabia, Petrochemical heavyweight SABIC rose 0.4%, after the company’s Q3-17 earnings topped market expectations. However, the nation’s equity benchmark dropped 0.2%, led by losses in Cement shares. Dubai’s benchmark dropped 0.3%, on the back of losses in index-heavyweight Emaar Properties. However, GFH Financial rose 1.2%, after announcing its plans of listing its shares on Saudi stock exchange. Emirates NBD gained 1.2%, after the lender’s net income came in at the higher end of analysts’ expectations. Qatar The QE index outperformed its regional peers, to settle 0.8% higher. Gulf institutional investors were among the net buyers in yesterday’s trading session. Trade turnover and volumes dropped, with Banking, Real Estate and Industrials sectors together accounting for about 86.0% of the total volumes. Ooredoo rose 3.0%, despite reporting lower than expected Q3-17 net income. Out of 45 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 21 advanced, 16 declined and 2 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.8 1.2 4.6 32.4 DSM 20 13.0 1.2 4.8 25.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.5 1.6 3.4 961.7 UAE (ADX) 16.3 1.3 4.5 23.0 UAE (DFM) 23.4 1.3 3.9 52.2 Kuwait (KSE) 18.1 1.2 5.3 54.7 Oman (MSM) 11.4 1.0 5.3 7.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.1 0.8 6.1 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ooredoo Qpsc Masraf Al Rayan Islamic Holding Group Widam Food Co Qatari Investors Group Top Losers Salam Intl Invest Qatar German Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Doha Insurance Co Close Price 88.0 36.4 34.8 61.8 28.6 2.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.6 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 (13.6) (3.2) (43.0) (9.1) (51.1) (9.3) 5.2 (39.1) (3.9) (50.7) 71.5 238.3 4.7 4.1 13.3 7.2 6.7 50.0 11.4 14.0 (0.3) (0.3) (1.9) (0.4) (0.5) (4.3) (4.0) (3.6) (3.5) (3.4) (34.9) (33.5) (1.2) (46.0) (23.1) (35.2) (32.8) (2.9) (45.7) (23.3) 192.3 20.3 7.6 NA 2.5 11.8 17.2 25.9 0.4 9.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 14.7 13.1 64.2 10.7 14.2 Qatar DSM Index 10,000 15.0 8,196.5 9,500 10.0 9,000 5.0 8,500 8,000 3/Aug 0.0 17/Aug 31/Aug 14/Sep Index Volume (mn) 28/Sep 12/Oct 26/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,573.1 4,821.6 2,528.2 3,006.9 1,634.1 1,048.8 1,668.0 1D Change (%) 0.5 (0.8) 0.7 (0.4) 1.5 2.5 (0.6) Buy (%) 39.1 18.4 57.5 6.5 36.0 42.5 Sell (%) 57.3 20.9 78.2 5.7 16.1 21.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 31 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS   US personal income increased by 0.4% MoM in September-17. Personal expenditure increased by 1.0% MoM driven by purchases of durable goods including the replacement of motor vehicles lost in recent flooding from hurricanes. (Source: Nasdaq) UK mortgage approvals decreased by 1.5% MoM to 66,232 in September-17, the lowest since June-17. Consumer credit was broadly unchanged since June-17, rising at an annualised pace of 10.0%. (Source:  Abu Dhabi based developer, National Investment Corporation has announced an expansion program of AED 3.0bn (USD 816.0mn) for its retail venture, Marina Mall Abu Dhabi. It will include entertainment attractions to the enhance visitors' experience. (Source: Trade Arabia)  RakBank has partnered with Ras Al Khaimah Economic Zone (Rakez) to provide banking services to the latter’s 13,000 clients. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia central bank’s net foreign assets decreased by 12.6% YoY to USD 477.6bn in September-17. Foreign bank deposits increased by 1.2% MoM to USD 90.2bn while foreign securities holdings, decreased by 1.2% MoM to USD 328.5bn. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia based Alawwal Bank is planning to redeem its callable sukuk worth SAR 1.4bn at its face value on 26th November-17. The sukuk was issued by the bank in 2012 with an original maturity of 7years and are callable in November-17. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia based cooperative insurance company, Tawuniya, has been affirmed with A- rating with stable outlook by S&P credit rating agency. This was due to its strong performance, coupled with its earnings in 2016 and the H1-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Bank ABC, has successfully closed the financing of an Airbus A320-200 aircraft for DAE Capital. The aircraft will be operated by flyadeal, which is a low cost carrier recently established by Saudi Arabian Airlines. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Bank Sohar’s net profit increased by 46.6% YoY to OMR 19.0mn in 9M-17 driven by its customer centric strategies. Total operating income increased by 3.4% YoY to OMR 54.9mn and its gross loans increased by 9.7% YoY to OMR 2.1bn. (Source: Bank Sohar) Market Insider)  Germany's retail sales increased by 4.1% YoY and 0.5% MoM in September-17. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased by 2.2% YoY and non-food sales increased by 5.8% YoY. (Source: iii)  Germany's adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6% in September-17. Total number of unemployed stood at1.5mn as the end of the month. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s retail sales increased by seasonally adjusted 0.8% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September-17. Sales from large retailers increased by 1.9% YoY. (Source: Morning Star)  Bank of Japan has kept its monetary stimulus program unchanged and has trimmed its inflation forecasts. The monetory policy board believes that it will meet its inflation target in FY-19 (starts in April-19). (Source: Bloomberg)  Turkey’s banking sector’s net profit increased by 28.6% YoY to TRY 37.2bn during 9M-17. Total assets rose 20.5% YoY to TRY 3.1tn in Septemebr-17. (Source: AA)  Turkey’s automobile exports rose by 21.6% YoY to USD 20.8 bn in 9M17. Automobile exports to US surged by 101.2% to USD 967.3mn. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS  QATAR NEWS  Turkey's exports to Qatar rose 29.0% YoY to USD 382.0mn in 9M-17, according to the Aegean Exporters' Association (EIB). Turkey's food exports to Qatar surged 98.0% to USD 114.0mn in the same period. UAE investors have announced USD 2.5bn worth of investments into India in October-17. It includes USD 1.0bn (AED 3.7bn) investment by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, USD 1.0bn (AED 3.7bn) by NRIEmirati Investor’s Group and a further AED 1.7bn investment by Lulu Group. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai government has made around USD 20.0bn worth investments in the development of the emirate's infrastructure and transport during the period from 2006 till 2016. (Source: WAM) Out of the total newly registered firms in Qatar Financial Center (QFC), during 206, 22.0% were from the Asia Pacific region, indicating the strength of QFC’s geographical diversification, the company’s chief executive noted. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Bank has entered into an agreement with India based Centrum Wealth Management Limited, to offer wealth management services to its customers in India. (Source: The Peninsula)  According to the S&P, banks based in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia enjoy the highest capitalisation, based on risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratios calculated. (Source: The Peninsula) Dubai based Emirates NBD has reported an increase in its net profit by 15.0% YoY to AED 6.2bn (USD 1.7bn) in 9M-17. Net Interest Income grew by 9.4% YoY to AED 2.3bn driven by loan growth and sustained improvement in operating margins. (Source: Emirates NBD)  The Minister of Transport and Communication and Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister have agreed to form a joint committee to facilitate trade exchange via air and maritime transport.  Dubai based Emirates Islamic Bank’s net profit surged by 369.8% to AED 498.0mn in 9M-17. Total Income declined by 6.0% to AED 1.8bn mainly due to lower one off gains from the sale of investment properties. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Amala Company has reported a decrease in its net profit by 11.0% YoY to QAR 352.9mn in 9M-17 driven by loss of control of two subsidiaries in the industrial manufacturing division. Gross revenue stood at QAR 1.3bn. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based Union Properties has announced the launch of its investment arm, UPP Capital Investment. The new entity will specialize in direct and indirect real estate investments. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai Carbon along with Innogy International Middle East, a leader in smart living transformation, have launched the first blockchain based crowd investment platform that would allow anyone to invest regardless of investment liquidity. (Source: Trade Arabia) Mannai Corporation has reported an increase in its gross revenue by 26.0% YoY to QAR 4.4bn and gross profit increased by 24.0% YoY to QAR 1.0bn in Q3-17 driven by the acquisition of controlling interests in GFI Informatique. It earned pre-tax profits of QAR 294.0mn in the same period. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ezdan Holding Group has reported an increase in its net profit by 9.3% YoY to QAR 1.4bn in Q3-17. The Group’s earnings per share also increased to QAR 0.53 in Q3-17 as compared to QAR 0.49 in Q3-16.     Nasdaq Dubai listed USD 300.0mn bond of China based Yinchuan Tonglian Capital Investment Operation Company. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes including construction of Binhe New District Industrial Park in Yinchuan. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi’s GDP surged by 6.7% YoY in Q2-17. The non-oil sector contributed 70.2% to the emirate’s GDP, while the oil-sector accounted for 29.8%. (Source: SCAD) (Source: Bloomberg) (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: The Peninsula) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 31 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1681 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.1800 EUR/QAR 4.2536 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3238 JPY/QAR 0.0322 USD/CHF 0.9943 GBP/QAR 4.8206 USD/CAD 1.2833 CHF/QAR 3.6624 AUD/USD 0.7688 CAD/QAR 2.8376 NZD/USD 0.6876 AUD/QAR 2.7996 USD/INR 64.3525 INR/QAR 0.0566 USD/TRY 3.7842 TRY/QAR 0.9623 USD/ZAR 14.0573 ZAR/QAR 0.2590 USD/BRL 3.2805 BRL/QAR 1.1100 FX Commentary The USD started the weak on a negative note, with the dollar index settling 0.5% lower at 94.458. The losses in the USD were triggered following reports that the US President’s former campaign manager might face charges relating to conspiracy against the nation. The EUR strengthened against the USD, as news emerged that the Spanish government has taken control of Catalan region after suspending its President. However, softer than expected German inflation data capped the gains in the common currency. The GBP inched higher, as better than expected UK mortgage data lifted the case for rate hike on the part of Bank of England when it meets later during the week. The CAD advanced against the USD, as persistent strength in oil prices, supported the currency. The CHF rose, following the release of better than expected Swiss leading indicator data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.38 1.85 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.18) 2.01 2.10 2.24 2.46 2.97 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 1.02 1.14 1.32 1.58 2.21 BMIBOR 1.03 1.23 1.75 2.08 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.57% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 UK Germany France 2.0% 1.80% 1.0% 1.08% 2.34% 1.68% 1.50% 1.33% 2.59% 2.04% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.55% 1.99% 2.21% 2.36% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 2.20% 3.30% 4.45% 2.88% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.07% 3.06% 2.04% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 1.0 Turkey 186.8 (25.0) 26.0 3.4 Brazil 174.8 (44.4) 13.1 (5.2) Egypt 347.9 (5.0) 21.7 (13.6) Abu Dhabi 62.0 18.8 Italy 129.6 (42.5) Bahrain 245.8 15.7 Greece 518.6 (416.8) Dubai 152.5 5.6 Russia 127.7 (27.5) Qatar 103.3 42.6 Japan 34.6 8.0 83.5 (6.4) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:45 France CPI YoY Oct P 1.00% 1.00% 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA QoQ Q3 A 0.50% 0.60% 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA YoY Q3 A 2.40% 2.30% 13:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct P 1.30% 1.30% 17:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Oct 121.3 119.8 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Ezdan Holding Group NA NA NA 255.4 (30.2) 22.4 Mesaieed Petrochemical NA NA NA 337.3 49.0 31.6 Aamal Co NA NA NA 112.5 11.2 (10.6) Mannai Corporation NA NA NA 110.3 (10.5) 44.4 (50.8) Zad Holding Co Emirates Nbd NA NA NA 32.2 9.9 5,581.5 8.2 3.6 2,275.6 36.8 12.6 NA NA NA 111.7 NA (32.6) Emirates Islamic Bank Dubai Financial Market Aluminium Bahrain NA NA NA 27.7 (21.7) (36.0) 235.3 35.0 31.2 25.8 80.0 45.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 31 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 26th October 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 0.0 0.0 10.3 2.9 6.2 5.7 5.1 0.0 4.9 8.3 2.6 6.6 3.8 6.1 4.4 6.4 4.0 7.2 0.0 10.4 5.7 6.6 6.7 8.3 5.5 0.0 4.2 4.9 4.1 3.5 7.5 6.6 4.6 5.1 4.2 3.4 3.7 6.9 3.7 8.4 5.4 0.0 9.5 6.6 4.1 0.0 3.4 3.8 6.8 6.5 6.2 4.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.6 2.0 0.8 1.4 0.7 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 2.0 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.1 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 9.3 40.9 27.6 8.3 63.3 9.5 12.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫) س‬ 9.6 9.0 8.7 21.5 9.9 6.2 28.8 14.1 37.5 12.8 (M) (‫) س‬ 10.4 10.5 5.3 11.1 10.2 (H) ( ) 16.0 22.2 15.9 12.4 14.3 9.8 11.0 17.4 20.2 9.2 19.8 54.9 12.1 21.0 7.2 12.0 52.0 7.7 9.7 15.0 (M) ( ‫) س‬ 21.3 11.6 10.1 19.6 12.6 12.1 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫) س‬ (M) (‫) س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.6 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.8 12.9 5.2 0.7 -0.4 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 4.1 0.8 0.2 1.7 1.2 5.7 (M) (‫) س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.3 19.5 8.7 63.1 44.9 71.8 9.2 39.5 59.5 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.2 14.0 17.6 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 55.1 11.1 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 24.3 20.2 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.2 69.7 5.3 23.0 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 26.3 16.7 29.0 34.6 12.1 35.2 9.9 6.4 96.3 48.4 121.8 7.5 65.3 67.5 140.6 25.0 96.7 7.0 7.7 61.0 68.5 7.3 18.2 6.9 95.0 12.3 182.0 28.7 40.0 61.0 11.8 14.2 44.0 40.5 51.1 29.7 9.2 8.2 13.2 85.6 7.0 42.0 14.8 54.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4