GCC Daily Market Update - 3 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,635.7 23,925.0 6,644.5 7,543.2 12,802.3 5,529.2 104,725.7 22,472.8 30,723.9 3,081.2 35,176.4 (19.1) (174.1) (37.5) 22.8 190.1 8.7 442.9 (35.3) (84.6) (1.1) 16.1 (0.7) (0.7) (0.6) 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.4 (0.2) (0.3) (0.0) 0.1 (0.5) (1.0) 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 (0.3) (0.0) 0.0 (1.4) (3.2) 3.9 (1.9) (0.9) 4.1 (9.2) (1.3) 2.7 (6.8) 3.3 8,953.4 8,098.8 4,635.0 3,003.0 4,797.4 4,730.8 1,261.1 1,675.4 3,614.7 (60.9) (59.3) (38.3) (27.8) (3.9) (0.4) 3.2 (6.1) (9.1) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (0.9) (0.1) (0.0) 0.3 (0.4) (0.3) (1.7) (1.3) (0.7) (2.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.3 (0.6) (0.2) 5.0 12.1 5.4 (10.9) NA (7.2) (5.3) 5.2 (0.6) 73.4 67.9 2.8 1,305.6 304.8 0.2 0.7 (0.0) (1.2) 3.3 0.3 1.0 (1.7) (0.1) 1.1 (2.7) (1.1) (0.2) (1.0) (0.2) 9.4 12.3 (6.6) (0.3) (7.7) Global The US equity markets inched lower yesterday, as investors reacted to the US Fed’s remarks that the US inflation is expected to remain near the central bank’s 2% target in the coming period, which would allow it to go ahead with its rate hike measures. All benchmark indices edged lower yesterday, despite gains in shares of Apple. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.6%, on the back of encouraging updates from the regional companies. The UK’s benchmark edged 0.3% higher, continuing its upward trajectory for the fifth consecutive session. Mining stocks were among the notable gainers, as encouraging Chinese manufacturing activity data lifted the demand prospects for metals. The Nikkei index dropped 0.2%, as investors booked profits ahead of the four-day holiday break in the nation. Automakers edged lower, following a discouraging US new vehicle sales report. GCC Most GCC markets ended lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark fell 0.7%, continuing its downtrend. Increased selling pressure in Consumer Durables & Apparel and Capital Goods shares weighed on the overall market performance. Both Emirati markets edged lower, with Dubai underperforming its peer indices. In Dubai, all three stocks of the Emaar group ended lower. On the other hand, the Bahraini benchmark edged 0.3% higher, outperforming its peer indices, on the back gains in Banking and Insurance shares. Qatar The QE index ended 0.7% lower yesterday. Increased net selling pressure from domestic and foreign institutional investors led to the overall losses in the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes dropped, with Telecom and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 62.0% of the total volume. Out of the total 45 listed shares, 41 exchanged hands, 31 declined, 9 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.8 1.3 4.5 57.0 DSM 20 13.3 1.4 4.9 39.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.7 1.8 3.3 1,208.0 UAE (ADX) 12.2 1.4 5.2 24.9 UAE (DFM) 10.2 1.1 5.8 33.9 Kuwait (KSE) 14.2 1.2 3.9 38.6 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.0 5.1 13.7 Bahrain (BAX) 8.0 0.8 6.5 1.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Salam Int’l Invest. Qatar National Cement Qatar Fuel Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar National Bank Top Losers Ezdan Holding Group Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar & Oman Invest. Qatari Investors Group Ooredoo Close Price 5.8 54.8 138.8 11.1 150.5 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 (16.5) (12.9) 36.0 (16.2) 19.4 (44.1) (22.8) 11.0 (44.5) 9.1 31.5 15.4 172.4 8.1 134.5 NA 10.8 12.7 42.3 11.0 9.8 50.0 6.7 33.1 74.1 (0.6) (2.9) (0.4) (1.6) (3.5) (6.0) (5.5) (5.0) (4.6) (4.6) (18.8) (9.0) (15.8) (9.6) (18.4) (36.8) (17.6) (29.3) (42.2) (26.4) 217.0 1.4 18.2 104.5 102.4 29.9 12.0 40.5 16.3 12.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,200 20.0 8,900 8,953.4 8,600 10.0 8,300 8,000 4/Feb 0.0 18/Feb 4/Mar 18/Mar Index Volume (mn) 1/Apr 15/Apr 29/Apr Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,074.9 5,844.7 3,045.7 3,047.2 1,765.8 1,031.7 1,770.4 1D Change (%) 0.2 (0.1) (0.6) (1.5) (3.8) (4.0) (0.4) Buy (%) 56.2 15.0 71.2 11.1 17.7 28.8 Sell (%) 44.4 20.1 64.5 11.3 24.2 35.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS    The US Fed has kept its interest rates steady believing that a recent rise in inflation to near the US central bank’s target of 2.0% would be sustained, leaving it on track to raise borrowing costs in the coming period. (Source: Reuters) US private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs in April-18, led by higher employment in services sector of 160,000, partially offset by a 10,600 job cuts in franchise employment. (Source: ADP) deficit of SAR 95.0bn (USD 52.0bn) in 2018. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi government is delaying payment of some contractors indicating that though the long-running problem has been resolved there seems to be a nascent economic recovery. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority’s Chairman has warned financial professionals that cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin which are speculative investments might end up being a source of fraud. (Source: Arab News)  Citigroup is in the process of obtaining a full banking license in Saudi Arabia to capitalize on Saudi economic reforms as its rival HSBC has won mandates for several privatization programs in the country. Germany’s central bank President is expecting that the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates towards the middle of FY19, as the worries about an end of the Eurozone's economic expansion are excessive. (Source: Yahoo Finance)   European Commission proposed to reduce farm subsidies by 5.0% to EUR 365.0bn (USD 438.0bn) in an effort to reduce cost and promote other policies. (Source: Reuters) Oman has employed more than 26,000 people as a part of its major recruitment drive aimed at tackling high unemployment numbers among locals, according to Ministry of Manpower. (Source: Arab News)   Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% QoQ and 2.5% YoY in Q1-18, while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was stable at 8.5% in March18 lower as compared to 9.4% in March-17. (Source: Eurostat) IMF’s regional director stated that Bahrain needs to accelerate its fiscal adjustment in order to reduce its deficit and to tackle a level of debt that is higher than other GCC countries. (Source: Times of Oman)   Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased by 13.2% MoM to AED 1.5bn (USD 1.1bn) in March-18, led by a higher increase in exports as compared to imports. (Source: ABS) Bahrain was the fastest growing economy in the GCC in FY-17 with real GDP growth of 3.9% during the year and non-oil economy expanding by 5.0%, according to Bahrain Economic Quarterly report. (Source: Trade (Source: Arab News) Arabia)  Bahrain’s banking sector witnessed a 6.4% YoY growth in net profits and a 5.6% YoY growth in total assets in FY-17, according to a report published by KPMG. (Source: Trade Arabia)  National Bank of Bahrain’s net profit increased 33.9% YoY to BHD 19.7mn (USD 52.5mn) for Q1-18, due to higher net interest income from growth in loans and advances along with improved net interest margin from better asset liability management. (Source: Trade Arabia) GCC NEWS  Dubai International Airport witnessed a 4.5% YoY rise in the passenger traffic to 7.8mn in March-18, according to a report by Dubai Airports. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based conglomerate Bin Zayed International has entered into a MoU with Global Crypto Offering Exchange (GCOX) to launch UAE’s first fully-licensed celebrity tokens crypto exchange. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based property developer Nakheel’s net profit has increased by 4.7% YoY to AED 1.5bn (USD 421.0mn) in Q1-18, reflecting ongoing project deliveries and diversification process, according to the company’s Chairman. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based business services provider Transguard Group’s net profit rose 22.0% YoY to AED 2.3bn (USD 628.9mn) led by the company’s ability to retain key accounts along with adding new clients, according to its CEO. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based Emirates District Cooling (Emicool) has received the contract for a district cooling plant serving the Expo 2020, which has a capacity of 60,000 tons of refrigeration. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based developer Sweid & Sweid has achieved more than AED 100.0mn (USD 27.2mn) in sales during the pre-launch phase of the first Banyan Tree Residences property in the Middle East region. (Source: QATAR NEWS  German ambassador has praised the Qatari government as well as major private sector players for their efforts to recalibrate the country’s business environment and tapping new markets after the economic blockade. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Chamber during their meet with delegation from Malaysia showed Qatar’s willingness to help Malaysian businessmen to explore available opportunities in Qatar especially in the Food security and building materials sectors. (Source: Gulf Times)  Minister of Economy and Commerce has advised all ministries and government entities to purchase domestic products to encourage local firms to produce more and reduce the country's dependence on imports. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar's producer price index increased 19.2% YoY in March-18 largely impacted by the price rise of 25.6% YoY in basic according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Development Bank’s Business Development head has announced that there has been a sizeable increase in the number of Qatari entrepreneurs engaged in home-based low-cost commercial activities in the past one year. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Total assets of all listed banks in Qatar increased 8.1% YoY to USD 389.4bn in FY-17, led by growth in corporate lending, cash and equivalents and investment securities, according to KPMG. (Source: Gulf Trade Arabia)    Dubai trade for auto parts and accessories increased by 3.1% YoY to AED 9.9bn (USD 10.8bn) in FY-17, according to Dubai Customs. Japan, South Korea, USA, Germany and China were Dubai’s top country partners. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi based Adnoc Logistics and Services has entered into a contract with Abu Dhabi based plastics solutions provider, Borouge to handle its Ruwais container terminal operations. (Source: Trade Arabia) Northern Emirates (Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah, Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain) have seen the highest fall in rents on an average of 11.0% YoY in Q1-18, according to a report by Asteco. (Source: Arabian Times)  Sidra Medicine is expected to launch a Poison Control Centre to provide toxicology consultation services to healthcare providers in Qatar as well as an In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) facility among several other services. (Source: Gulf Times)  Maritime and Logistics Company Milaha (Qatar Navigation) has launch a direct container feeder service between Qatar and Iraq to contribute to the reconstruction efforts in Iraq. (Source: Peninsula Qatar) Business)  IMF regional director has expressed his views that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to be at least USD 85.0per barrel in 2018 to be able to balance its budget. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s finance minister has announced that its will be able to cut its budget deficit to 7.0% of GDP, and has projected a budget 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1981 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.8400 EUR/QAR 4.3629 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3606 JPY/QAR 0.0332 USD/CHF 0.9988 GBP/QAR 4.9546 USD/CAD 1.2884 CHF/QAR 3.6459 AUD/USD 0.7493 CAD/QAR 2.8264 NZD/USD 0.6995 AUD/QAR 2.7286 USD/INR 66.1650 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 4.1775 TRY/QAR 0.8717 USD/ZAR 12.7067 ZAR/QAR 0.2866 USD/BRL 3.5518 BRL/QAR 1.0253 FX Commentary The USD inched higher against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.1% higher at 92.569. Gains in the greenback came after the US Fed expressed its confidence about its future outlook of the inflation, which provides more room to go ahead with its future rate hike measures. Better than expected APD jobs data also supported the greenback against a basket of currencies. The EUR weakened against the USD, after data indicated that the growth in the common currency bloc slowed during Q1-18. The GBP remained broadly unchanged against the USD, as renewed concerns relating to the Brexit deal more than offset a strong rise in the UK’s construction activity data. The TRY dropped against the USD, after the S&P ratings services reduced the nation’s credit rating further into the junk status. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.75 1.91 2.35 2.77 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.29 2.35 2.46 2.65 3.05 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.92 2.08 2.39 2.79 2.0% EIBOR 1.58 1.78 1.99 2.50 3.12 BMIBOR 1.63 1.93 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.33% 2.49% 3.99% 4.22% 4.44% 2.80% 2.92% 2.97% 3.15% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5.05% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg b Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 28.0 (0.3) Turkey 208.3 UK 18.0 (7.4) Brazil 183.6 8.6 Germany 11.3 (0.9) Egypt 271.6 (81.0) France 19.0 (1.3) Abu Dhabi 65.3 5.3 Italy 89.9 (29.2) Bahrain 345.7 75.5 Greece 327.4 (182.2) Dubai 118.7 (15.7) Russia 136.7 1.7 Qatar 91.0 (12.5) Japan 25.0 (9.1) Saudi Arabia 91.0 7.2 2.76% 3.00% 2.96% 2.92% 2.0% 1.58% 2.28% 2.12% 1.96% 3.03% 2.55% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 8.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 09:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg Period Survey Apr 50.5 15:30 US 16:00 Prior 50.6 Initial Jobless Claims Apr-28th 225k 209k Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-27th - 463.8b 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders Mar F - 2.60% 17:00 US Factory Orders Mar 1.40% 1.20% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) National Commercial Bank NA NA NA 2,987.0 10.5 16.8 Banque Saudi Fransi NA NA NA 1,112.0 0.7 163.0 National Bank Of Bahrain NA NA NA 19.7 33.9 70.5 Saudi Airlines Catering Co NA NA NA 120.3 (0.9) 21.6 0.4 Al Hammadi Co For Dev. QoQ (%) NA NA NA 30.9 10.4 Arabian Cement 199.7 (26.6) (19.5) (6.1) NA NA National Corp Tourism & Hotels 180.7 (5.0) (7.6) 31.1 (6.1) (13.1) Alabdullatif Industrial Inv 163.6 (1.8) (26.2) 7.3 (41.3) 29.7 NA NA NA (38.8) (15.2) 7.6 Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 26th April 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 2.8 0.0 11.2 3.7 6.8 5.6 5.2 0.0 4.0 7.1 4.0 6.9 4.5 8.3 6.0 6.2 4.4 5.8 0.0 0.0 6.7 9.3 6.1 5.4 0.0 4.4 4.6 4.1 3.9 2.2 7.7 8.1 4.4 0.0 5.8 3.5 4.6 6.6 4.0 6.8 4.5 0.0 8.6 5.5 4.4 0.0 3.4 4.0 6.9 5.8 6.0 4.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 2.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.3 2.3 0.8 1.7 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 3.4 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.9 1.5 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 4.8 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.2 24.1 19.0 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 13.3 153.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 10.2 10.4 24.5 11.1 4.3 26.5 14.2 18.2 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 4.6 12.2 13.9 40.5 11.6 19.7 19.7 13.4 17.0 10.0 11.1 17.4 20.0 15.4 27.8 13.5 12.8 20.8 8.3 17.4 29.3 8.5 12.3 13.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.7 11.6 9.6 14.7 11.4 13.0 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.5 0.3 5.8 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 7.7 64.7 45.0 66.7 8.8 38.4 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 4.7 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 31.0 35.9 11.2 26.9 27.0 11.1 36.0 9.6 6.1 106.8 56.2 150.1 7.3 48.0 67.2 137.5 22.6 138.0 5.6 5.7 63.8 70.0 11.1 18.5 5.7 108.0 17.1 197.0 34.6 39.0 55.5 11.5 13.0 37.0 47.5 52.9 36.7 11.1 7.1 14.6 79.6 9.3 42.7 14.6 60.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4