GCC Daily Market Update - 19 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 19 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,503.9 3.6 22,331.4 63.0 5,981.1 (6.9) 7,253.3 37.8 12,559.4 40.6 5,229.3 15.4 106,534.6 (1,207.1) 19,909.5 NA 28,159.8 352.2 3,362.9 9.2 32,423.8 151.2 0.2 0.3 (0.1) 0.5 0.3 0.3 (1.1) NA 1.3 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.7 (0.1) (2.4) 4.2 2.8 (3.2) 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.2 11.8 13.0 23.0 1.5 9.4 7.5 36.3 4.2 28.0 8.4 21.8 8,278.8 7,393.4 4,453.0 3,660.5 6,890.4 4,986.8 1,298.5 1,673.1 3,447.2 (96.4) (9.6) 6.4 28.7 (21.3) (10.8) (1.6) (1.9) 7.5 (1.2) (0.1) 0.1 0.8 (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 (5.9) 1.9 (0.3) 0.6 (0.0) (1.3) (0.3) 0.1 2.1 (20.7) 2.5 (2.1) 3.7 19.9 (13.8) 6.4 6.5 18.7 55.5 49.9 3.1 1,306.9 294.9 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (14.4) 2.1 (0.3) 0.0 4.0 (1.1) 0.7 5.7 5.7 3.6 (0.9) (4.1) (2.5) (7.1) (15.5) 13.5 17.9 Source: Bloomberg Global A risk on rally continued across the markets globally, as geopolitical tensions ebbed following no further provocations from North Korea this weekend. Financials and Banks drove gains across the Atlantic, as optimism regarding monetary tapering across the globe gained traction, ahead of the Fed meet today. Favorable US inflation data last week, has raised expectations that Fed would sound hawkish in this meet. Utilities along with other Defensives weighed on the S&P index. The broader Stoxx 600 and most regional bourses in Europe traded higher, following an upgrade in ratings of Portugal to Investment grade after 5 years by S&P. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Index jumped 1.3%, while South Korea’s Kopsi rose 1.3%, supported by a rally in shares of index heavyweight Samsung Electronics. GCC Most major gulf indices closed lower yesterday, with an exception to UAE markets. Dubai’s benchmark benefitted from gains in theme park operator DXB Entertainments, which surged 6.2% yesterday as was the bourse’s top performer. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark edged down 0.1%, hit by declines in most banking stocks as investors booked profits on recent gains. Airport service operator Saudi Ground Services dropped 3.5% after announcing plans to distribute a dividend of SAR 0.65 per share for the second quarter, which is unchanged from that distributed a year-ago. Qatar QE Index continued its downward trajectory, dropping for an 11th straight session after the diplomatic crisis in the regions started showing an impact on the nation’s company. Qatar Insurance (-2.3%) said that it was closing its Abu Dhabi branch because it had not been able to obtain a license. The company used to generate an annual gross premiums of QAR 110mn for the Emirate. The sell-off was broad-based, and most sectors retreated, with an exception to Real Estate. Trade volumes were on the increase in the market, where Banking, Industrials and Telecom sectors together accounted for about 82% of the total trades. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.8 1.2 4.5 45.8 9,500 DSM 20 14.3 1.4 4.1 31.7 9,000 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.1 1.7 3.2 811.4 8,500 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.6 35.9 8,000 UAE (DFM) 24.3 1.4 3.9 61.1 Kuwait (KSE) 18.2 1.2 5.3 69.2 7,500 22/Jun Oman (MSM) 11.6 1.0 5.3 3.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.6 0.8 6.0 4.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Islamic Holding Group Dlala Holding Qatar Islamic Insurance Gulf Warehousing Co. Top Losers QGRI Nakilat Qatari Investors Group Salam Intl. Investment Qatar National Cement Close Price 15.6 43.5 17.2 54.0 46.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 4.2 2.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 (25.9) (28.7) (19.9) 6.7 (17.9) (29.3) 4.3 26.9 (28.1) 23.6 63.8 (23.5) 1,480.2 29.2 (1.3) 0.1 12.7 (14.0) 10.0 12.9 37.2 15.6 37.0 7.9 62.0 (4.1) (0.5) (0.9) (0.2) (1.5) (9.9) (2.8) (2.4) (2.4) (2.4) (21.0) (32.4) (36.8) (29.0) (20.7) (19.2) (29.7) (26.0) (30.6) (20.4) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 8.0 355.2 23.9 7.6 18.4 18.8 10.1 17.0 10.6 10.4 Qatar DSM Index 10,000 15.0 10.0 8,278.8 5.0 0.0 6/Jul 20/Jul 3/Aug Index Volume (mn) 17/Aug 31/Aug 14/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,591.4 5,001.4 2,491.4 3,694.6 1,783.7 1,006.2 1,731.3 1D Change (%) (1.0) (0.2) (1.2) (3.2) 0.1 (0.1) (1.5) Buy (%) 46.8 29.8 76.6 7.6 15.8 23.4 Sell (%) 43.6 27.3 70.9 7.4 21.7 29.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 19 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS   Foreign Investors sold USD 7.3bn in July-17 of US assets, including short-dated instruments in July 2017 after buying a downwardly revised USD 5.9bn in June-17. (Source: Trading Economics) The Canadian government to keep a close watch on how the economy reacts to higher interest rates and the stronger Canadian dollar, before proceeding with more rate hikes, the nation’s deputy governor said.  Arabia)  Bahrain Airport Services the sole operator of ground services at the kingdom's international airport, is implementing an in-house developed cargo handling system, which will cover all operational aspects that help in facilitating air cargo movement. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based NEC Payments, a payments technology company, has been awarded the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standards (PCI DSS v3.2) certification by SISA Information Security WLL, which is a top qualified security assessor. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based NBK Capital has announced the closing of its 2nd mezzanine fund, NBK Capital Partners Mezzanine Fund II, with USD 160.0mn worth in capital commitments. (Source: Mubasher) (Source: Bloomberg)    Eurozone consumer price inflation rose by 1.5% YoY and 0.3% MoM in August-17. Core inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco grew by 0.3% MoM and non-energy industrial goods prices rose by 0.5% MoM during the month. (Source: Market Insider) UK’s seasonally adjusted Household Finance Index (HFI) dropped by 0.6 points over the month to 42.8 in September-17 driven by increase in living costs and subdued pay growth, according to IHS Markit report. HFI provides the earliest indication of actual changes in UK household finances monthly. (Source: iii) Australia’s total number of new motor vehicle sales remained stable on a seasonally adjusted basis to 99,564 in August-17. Sales for sports utility vehicles grew by 0.8% MoM and sales of other vehicles grew by 0.7% MoM. Passenger vehicles registered a 0.4% MoM decline. (Source: QATAR NEWS  Qatar's Water Security Mega Reservoirs Project worth USD 4.7bn is 70.0% completed. The project comprises of 5 mega-reservoirs which would hold 7-day strategic reserve of freshwater for Qatar’s population. (Source: Trade Arabia)  According to BMI research report, burden of funding in Qatari banking system resulting from the ongoing Gulf diplomatic crisis will remain light, as Qatari lenders’ loan might grow strongly driven by largescale public investments into infrastructure. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is expected to remain in strong position to meet domestic funding requirements despite of 3 months blockade, according to the chief economist of Washington-based Institute of International Finance. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Insurance Company’s license to operate its Insurance business in Abu Dhabi will not be renewed due to the prevailing political events in the region, CEO of the company in MENA region said. . (Source: Gulf Market Insider)   Hong Kong’s unemployment rate remained unchanged to 3.1% in three months ending in August-17. On an unadjusted basis, the number of unemployed people increased to 130,000 in the period from June-17 to August-17 whereas unemployment stood at 128,200 in the period May-17 to July-17. (Source: Market Insider) Turkey reported a rise in number of newly established companies by 47.5% YoY to 6,593 in August-17 and the total number of companies that went out of business increased by 105.4% YoY to 1,218 during the month, according to Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges report. (Source: AA) Times)  Qatar Electricity and Water Company announced the allocation of land for 500MW to 1,000MW solar power project in Al Kharsaah, which is about 80km west of Doha. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar University Health and Al Ahli Hospital have inked an MoU to work in partnership in the field of education, research and clinical training. Both institution will offer and participate in various medical activities and perform joint research projects in areas of new scientific and practical results which are applicable to Qatar. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s oil production reached 611,000 b/d in June-17 as compared to 594,000 b/d in May-17. Average Brent crude oil prices declined by 0.5% MoM to USD 52.4/b in August-17, as increasing US production offset falling US crude stockpiles, NBK noted in its monthly report. The report further stated that Qatar’s broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% YoY in July-17. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Airways has announced that it is planning to add 4 additional weekly flights to Sohar, its newest destination in Oman, from 1st October-17. It is aiming to increase the number of weekly flights between Doha and Oman from 52 to 56. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Tourism Authority announced that Qatar will host the International Conference on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Regional Development in October-18. It will be organized by the University of Sheffield with an objective to raise and promote innovation led growth. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Hamad International Airport and Qatar Airways inked a MoU with Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation's, Kahramaa, National Program for conservation and energy efficiency, to achieve long term sustainability and energy conservation in line with the Qatar National Vision 2030. (Source: Gulf Times) GCC NEWS  UAE Excise Tax, which will be effective from 1st October-17, will be collected in e-Dirham only, the Federal Tax Authority announced. The objective behind this was to ensure transparency, efficiency and safety in financial transactions. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE is expected to record a steady rise of 4.4% YoY in trade in 2017, driven by increase in imports by 5.0% YoY and an increase in exports by 3.7% YoY, according to a BMI report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based trade enabler, DP World, will buy maritime business park for USD 180.0mn. The company is also buying Drydocks World ship repair unit. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi based telecom service provider, Etisalat, has introduced first IPX Exchange platform in MENA region to support IPX traffic exchange at the 13th Telecoms World Middle East expo. The exchange will help Etisalat, a higher quality service in terms of flexibility of speed and accessibility. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia is planning to attract bidders for its tender of construction of a 1,600 km long railroad linking the Red Sea with the Arabian Gulf, CEO of Saudi Railway Company said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has introduced the Future Investment Initiative under the patronage of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques which will be held on 24th October-17 to 26th October17 in Riyadh, King of Saudi Arabia said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Aramco’s subsidiary, Sadara Chemical Company, announced the commercial start-up of its toluene di isocyanate (TDI) facility. The production of commercial quantities of TDI marks the full commercial operation of all facilities in the Sadara complex. (Source: Trade Arabia) Bahrain Petroleum Company will soon enter into multiple expansion contracts by the end of 2017, the nation’s oil minister said. (Source: Trade 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 19 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1984 USD/QAR 3.6415 111.5700 EUR/QAR 4.3640 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3525 JPY/QAR 0.0326 USD/CHF 0.9615 GBP/QAR 4.9251 USD/CAD 1.2291 CHF/QAR 3.7873 AUD/USD 0.7958 CAD/QAR 2.9627 NZD/USD 0.7263 AUD/QAR 2.8979 USD/INR 63.6400 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.4906 TRY/QAR 1.0432 USD/ZAR 13.3062 ZAR/QAR 0.2737 USD/BRL 3.1376 BRL/QAR 1.1606 FX Commentary USD ended higher against the basket of major currencies on Monday as investors braced for a potentially more hawkish stance in the upcoming US Fed meeting. Expectation of announcements to monetary tapering are aiding the greenback. Strong gains in US treasury yields also kept the currency buoyant. GBP ended lower against the greenback after BoE Governor Mark Carney commented that any coming interest rate rises would be limited and gradual. EUR gained after Eurozone inflation for August-17 met expectations. CAD weakened against its US counterpart after BoC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane indicated that currency’s strength and strong economic data will be a factor for future interest rate decisions. JPY ended lower against the USD as geopolitical concerns between US and North Korea faded. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.32 1.73 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.17) 2.01 2.10 2.24 2.43 2.93 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 EIBOR 0.96 1.09 1.34 1.55 2.15 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.03 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 KIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 1.39% 2 Yrs 3.0% US 29.4 UK Germany 1.65% 1.0% 1.04% 1.90% 1.55% 1.38% 1.24% 1.90% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 2.05% 2.22% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs 5 Years CDS 2.0% 1.82% 4.28% 2.79% 0.0% US Swap Rates 2.46% 3.28% 1.98% Source: Bloomberg 2.19% 3.06% 2.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.03% 2.83% France Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 0.4 Turkey 163.3 (72.7) 23.2 0.6 Brazil 179.9 0.0 13.4 (7.9) Egypt 357.4 (0.6) 20.6 (43.8) Abu Dhabi 58.6 14.2 Italy 134.8 (64.2) Bahrain 238.9 3.5 Greece 524.1 (14.4) Dubai 143.7 (3.2) Russia 133.4 (40.8) Qatar 91.0 (26.8) Japan 35.0 11.9 Saudi Arabia 82.7 (5.7) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 14:30 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep 86.2 86.7 14:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Sep -- 29.3 14:30 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Sep 12 10 18:00 Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM Jul (1.90%) (1.80%) 18:00 US Housing Starts Aug 1,174k 1,155k 18:00 US Building Permits Aug 1,220k 1,230k 18:00 US Current Account Balance 2Q ($116.0b) ($116.8b) 18:00 US Import Price Index MoM Aug 0.40% 0.10% 18:30 Russia Unemployment Rate Aug 5.10% 5.10% 18:30 Russia Real Wages YoY Aug 3.80% 4.60% 18:30 Russia Retail Sales Real YoY Aug 1.10% 1.00% 05:20 Japan Trade Balance Aug ¥104.4b ¥421.7b 05:20 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Aug ¥404.5b ¥337.4b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 50.6 0.3 (4.4) 10.4 (13.1) (20.9) Alliance Insurance Company Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 19 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 0.0 0.0 8.4 2.3 6.4 5.5 4.1 0.0 5.4 7.8 2.6 6.2 3.7 6.2 4.3 5.9 4.0 6.4 0.0 10.2 5.7 6.4 6.2 7.0 5.9 0.0 4.6 4.7 4.2 2.7 7.7 5.9 4.7 3.8 4.3 2.2 4.0 6.5 2.7 8.2 4.6 0.0 8.3 5.8 4.3 0.0 3.4 3.5 6.4 6.5 6.0 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.9 1.8 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 2.1 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 3.8 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.7 2.0 0.5 2.5 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.1 67.5 29.6 8.7 62.9 10.0 13.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.2 9.6 8.9 22.8 10.3 6.1 29.4 15.2 59.8 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 10.9 5.4 11.6 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 16.8 20.3 16.6 12.6 17.0 9.0 10.4 16.9 26.8 8.2 17.8 18.8 12.7 17.1 9.1 14.1 40.6 9.3 11.9 14.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.1 12.9 10.0 14.5 11.7 12.4 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 29.3 30.0 17.2 29.6 43.5 11.8 36.4 12.3 6.4 88.0 51.0 122.9 8.0 64.5 70.0 151.5 25.0 100.0 7.8 7.9 61.5 70.0 8.6 17.1 7.3 87.3 12.9 178.5 37.0 40.0 62.0 15.6 14.0 60.0 37.2 54.0 30.7 10.9 9.6 15.1 81.4 8.2 46.0 15.6 54.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4