GCC Daily Market Update - 15 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 16 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,553.2 22,871.7 6,092.5 7,535.4 12,991.9 5,351.7 106,225.7 21,155.2 28,476.4 3,390.5 32,432.7 2.2 30.7 22.5 (20.8) 9.0 (9.1) 293.4 200.5 17.4 4.4 250.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 (0.3) 0.1 (0.2) 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.3 0.4 3.2 3.9 3.3 1.2 3.7 14.0 15.7 25.3 5.5 13.2 10.1 35.9 10.7 29.4 9.2 21.8 8,341.1 6,937.9 4,518.4 3,657.5 6,622.3 5,138.9 1,274.4 1,659.0 3,510.9 (1.0) (49.8) (7.5) (2.7) (6.2) 10.4 (0.4) 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.7) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.3 (4.7) 2.8 2.6 (0.9) 0.0 (0.7) 1.3 2.1 (20.1) (3.8) (0.6) 3.6 15.2 (11.1) 4.4 5.6 20.9 57.2 51.5 3.0 1,301.5 313.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 8.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 (1.3) 1.6 6.7 1.8 (3.4) (20.3) 13.0 25.8 Source: Bloomberg Global US markets closed higher on Friday, amidst heightening speculations the upcoming quarterly earnings season might remain encouraging and after reports that the Trump administration would not certify Iran’s nuclear program. The S&P 500 index settled 0.1% higher, led by gains in Consumer Discretionary and Materials shares. Financial shares settled marginally higher, after Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported a mixed bag of earnings data. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3%, driven by gains in Mining shares, as metal prices inched higher. The UK’s benchmark fell, on the back of the strength in the GBP, amid hopes the nation might see a smoother exit from the European Union. The Japanese benchmark advanced to settle above the psychological 21,000, while, the Chinese benchmark settled 0.1%, helped by better than expected domestic trade data. GCC Most GCC markets closed lower yesterday. In Saudi Arabia, Almarai rose 3.6%, after indicating that the nation’s sovereign wealth fund has retained its stake in the company, after the bonus issue. However, the country’s equity benchmark settled 0.7% lower, led by losses in blue chips like SABIC, Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi Arabian Mining Co. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark dropped 0.2%. Dana Gas fell 3.8%, after a London High Court judge adjourned hearing of the company’s bonds to mid-November. On the other hand, Omani equity benchmark outperformed its regional peers, led by gains in Financial shares. Qatar The QE index ended marginally lower yesterday. Foreign institutional investors continued to remain net buyers during yesterday’s trading session. Trade turnover and volumes declined, with Banking and Real Estate sectors together accounting for more than 57.0% of the total volume. Out of 45 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 17 declined, 19 advanced and 4 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.9 1.2 4.5 24.9 DSM 20 13.6 1.3 4.7 16.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.6 3.5 573.8 UAE (ADX) 16.6 1.3 4.5 27.3 UAE (DFM) 90.7 1.3 3.9 119.9 Kuwait (KSE) 17.8 1.2 5.2 45.4 Oman (MSM) 12.4 1.1 5.1 4.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.5 0.8 6.2 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Mannai Corporation Widam Food Co Qatar Industrial Manu Al Khalij Com. Bank Medicare Group Top Losers Qatar Islamic Insurance Gulf Warehousing Co Doha Bank Qpsc Salam Intl Investment Commercial Bank Close Price 65.4 64.5 42.9 12.2 71.0 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.3 1.0 6.3 4.0 2.6 2.5 1.4 (18.3) (5.1) (3.6) (28.2) 12.9 (20.3) 0.8 4.0 (32.2) (15.3) 0.0 6.2 121.3 NA 4.0 9.7 6.0 10.3 2.7 30.3 50.5 43.0 28.5 8.0 27.5 (2.5) (1.0) (0.5) (0.1) (0.4) (4.7) (2.3) (1.8) (1.5) (1.4) (0.2) (23.2) (15.6) (27.3) (11.0) (4.5) (22.7) (21.1) (27.4) (23.6) 0.0 9.9 35.3 289.6 61.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 11.9 12.0 9.1 10.9 263.5 Qatar DSM Index 10,000 15.0 9,500 10.0 8,341.1 9,000 5.0 8,500 8,000 19/Jul 0.0 2/Aug 16/Aug 30/Aug Index Volume (mn) 13/Sep 27/Sep 11/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,601.8 5,015.1 2,615.2 3,254.1 1,623.9 1,048.2 1,733.3 1D Change (%) 0.4 1.5 (0.2) 0.0 (0.6) 0.5 0.2 Buy (%) 42.9 15.9 58.8 15.0 26.2 41.2 Sell (%) 54.5 18.5 73.0 10.5 16.5 27.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 16 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US CPI increased by 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September-17 after hurricane Harvey boosted gas prices. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI increased by 0.1% MoM. (Source: iii)  US business inventories increased by 0.7% MoM and business sales also increased by 0.7% MoM in August-17. Wholesale sales increased by 1.7% MoM and manufacturing sales increased by 0.5% MoM. (Source: Nasdaq)    US retail sales increased by 1.6% MoM in September-17 driven by 3.6% increase in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles sales rose by 1.0%. (Source: Nasdaq) Germany’s CPI increased by 1.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM in September17 driven by 3.6% YoY rise in food prices. Energy price inflation also increased, but price increases in the services sector lagged behind at 1.6%. (Source: iii) Germany's business insolvencies decreased by 9.8% YoY in July-17. Local courts reported 1,633 business insolvencies in July-17. (Source: Morningstar)   The Reserve Bank of Australia in its biannual Financial Stability Review said that regulatory measures were constraining some borrowers but would strengthen the resilience of household and bank balance sheets. (Source: News) China’s trade surplus amounted to USD 28.5bn in September-17 as exports rose by 8.1% YoY and imports by 18.7% YoY. (Source: Market Insider)   Turkey's total electric and hybrid car sales increased by 805.6% YoY to 2,763 in the first nine months of 2017. Sales of hybrid cars increased nine fold yearly to 2,717 in the same period. (Source: AA) Turkey and Israel plans to propose natural gas pipeline construction to bring Israeli gas to Europe are at an "advanced stage", according to the adviser to Israel's Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources. (Source: AA)  Saudi Arabia based Arriyadh Development Authority (ADA) has launched the Naming Rights Program of its Riyadh Public Transit Network, currently under construction. Out of total 85 stations of the Riyadh Metro system, 15 will be eligible for well-known national and international companies to bid for, out of which only 10 will be awarded naming rights by ADA. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based Riyad real estate investment trust (REIT) has signed a sale and purchase agreement with the Higher Education Fund to acquire a key building of Saudi Electronic University located in Ar Rabi district of the kingdom for SAR 137.7mn (USD 36.7mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait based KEO International Consultants has won a contract to provide master planning and infrastructure consultancy services for the Dubai Maritime City (DMC), a mixed-use development located in Dubai, which will cover up an area of 2.3mn sq m. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain has been ranked second globally for internet users in a key World Economic Forum report, with the percentage of individuals using internet in Bahrain surging to 98.0% in 2016 from 89.0% in 2015, according to Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain Marina Phase one work is on track with the piling likely to start in January-18 and Phase one is expected to complete by 2020. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s Sohar Port and Freezone has announced that the first phase of its mega expansion plan is set to get under soon. The expansion is part of the freezone's long-term move to grow the vital industrial and maritime hub by as much as 50.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar will handle the operational budget of the Global Dryland Alliance (GDA) for two years and the cost of hosting the headquarters in Doha. GDA aims to deal with food security and other needs in dryland countries around the world, HE the Prime Minister and Interior Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani said. (Source: Gulf Times) GCC NEWS  The value of Dubai’s IT sector trade surged to AED 134.5bn (USD 36.6bn) in H1-17, of which the imports for the same period amounted to AED 86.8bn (USD 23.6bn) and exports and re-exports were valued AED 47.7bn (USD 12.9bn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) has launched its new investment subsidiary, Jumeirah Energy International Silicon Valley Company (JEI Silicon Valley), in California, US, which will primarily look for opportunities linked to research and development (R&D) and innovation. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Economy has signed an agreement with VFS Global, a visa processing and identity services specialist, to extend varied e-services related to business registration and licensing in Dubai, UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Investments (DIC) has announced its support to the Dubai Investment Week 2017 as a strategic partner as it aims to eye opportunities for growth, partnership, innovation and investments across diverse sectors and markets through its support to the event. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah International Airport (SIA) handled 3.1mn passengers in the Q317, an increase of 4.1% YoY. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi media and entertainment hub twofour5 has been ranked 10th on the Forbes Middle East’s list of the 50 Most Active Investors and the second highest accelerator. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Aramco has dismissed reports of shelving plans for the flotation. It said that the USD 2.0tn listing was on track for next year. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Ministry of Economy and Commerce in cooperation with the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in Malaysia, is organising the QatariMalaysian Economic Forum to expand Qatari-Malaysian trade and economic ties. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar’s consumer price index (CPI), increased by 0.1% MoM driven by higher prices for clothing and footwear. CPI however decreased by 0.5% YoY in September-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar remains one of the most attractive markets for investors, with favorable investment opportunities across key sectors according to the Minister of Finance. (Source: Gulf Times)  Hotel reservations or other conditions are not compulsory to obtain different types of on-arrival tourist visas in Qatar. However, visitors can be asked to provide the address of their place of stay in Qatar, the Ministry of Interior said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s real estate market is expected to experience a significant growth in 2018 as many firms are shifting their businesses from the blockading countries to Qatar which acts as a major driving force to the real estate market growth, experts from the industry said. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar National Bank has approached commercial banks to refinance its USD 3.0bn loan due March-18, and expects to complete the deal before the end of 2017. (Source: Reuters)  Arabian Supply Center (ASC) has been signed up by India based Metso, an industrial company serving the mining, aggregates and energy sector. ASC will be the sole entity to distribute Metso’s full range of crushing and screening products to the construction segment in Qatar. (Source: Trade Arabia) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 16 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1850 USD/QAR 3.6415 111.8200 EUR/QAR 4.3152 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3315 JPY/QAR 0.0326 USD/CHF 0.9745 GBP/QAR 4.8487 USD/CAD 1.2468 CHF/QAR 3.7368 AUD/USD 0.7887 CAD/QAR 2.9207 NZD/USD 0.7181 AUD/QAR 2.8721 USD/INR 64.4275 INR/QAR 0.0565 USD/TRY 3.6351 TRY/QAR 1.0018 USD/ZAR 13.2680 ZAR/QAR 0.2745 USD/BRL 3.1460 BRL/QAR 1.1575 FX Commentary The USD traded broadly unchanged on Friday, with the dollar index settling mostly flat at 93.092. The USD inched lower in the early New York trade, on the back of lower than expected domestic inflation and retail sales data, however, the Trump administration’s move to decertify Iran’s nuclear program helped in offsetting earlier losses. The EUR fell against the USD, following the release of broadly in line German consumer price inflation data. The GBP strengthened against the USD, amid reports that the European Union may offer a two-year Brexit transition deal to the nation. The CAD inched lower against the USD, amidst uncertain outlook about the ongoing NAFTA negotiation talks. However, advances in oil prices helped in limiting the losses in the currency. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.35 1.81 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.18) 2.04 2.11 2.21 2.42 2.96 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 1.02 1.13 1.31 1.57 2.19 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.05 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.51% 2 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 UK Germany France 2.0% 1.76% 1.0% 1.06% 2.00% 1.63% 1.45% 1.30% 2.49% 2.00% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 3.50% 1.92% 2.12% 2.29% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 2.25% 3.28% 4.41% 2.82% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.11% 3.06% 1.97% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change (0.4) Turkey 179.0 (57.0) 26.0 3.4 Brazil 183.1 (44.6) 13.1 (14.9) Egypt 346.5 (22.9) 22.4 (56.8) Abu Dhabi 63.2 18.3 Italy 141.1 (52.6) Bahrain 242.8 6.7 Greece 532.0 (439.1) Dubai 151.9 5.0 Russia 130.6 (38.5) Qatar 102.6 37.4 Japan 38.0 10.0 Saudi Arabia 84.9 (3.5) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Aug F - 2.10% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Aug F - 5.40% 07:30 Japan Capacity Utilization MoM Aug - (1.80%) 15:30 Canada Int'l Securities Transactions Aug - 23.95b 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Oct 20.5 24.4 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) Alinma Bank Union National Bank/Abu Dhabi YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 542.0 73.9 11.0 1,373.4 6.3 3.0 406.0 (0.2) (19.1) NA NA NA 46.0 (1.1) 14.6 Bank Muscat Oman Telecommunications Co Human Soft Holding Co Bank Dhofar Sharjah Islamic Bank 139.1 8.5 2.9 19.1 (32.5) 12.5 13.7 18.4 (8.4) 5.9 17.6 (2.8) NA NA NA 12.1 13.0 18.8 386.9 32.5 (5.0) 87.1 10.6 (34.9) Qassim Cement NA NA NA 51.2 (27.2) (3.7) Ominvest NA NA NA 4.5 31.4 (0.9) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 16 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 12th October 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 2.6 6.3 5.5 4.4 0.0 5.0 7.8 2.6 6.4 3.7 6.5 4.3 6.3 4.0 6.4 0.0 9.8 5.7 6.3 6.3 7.5 5.3 0.0 4.1 4.6 4.2 3.0 7.2 5.7 4.4 4.4 4.0 2.6 3.8 6.6 3.1 7.9 5.3 0.0 9.0 6.4 4.1 0.0 3.3 3.6 6.4 6.4 6.0 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.6 3.8 0.6 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.8 1.2 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.7 0.6 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.8 62.8 29.3 8.5 56.3 10.1 13.3 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 9.6 8.7 22.3 10.2 5.8 29.9 14.4 59.8 13.9 M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 11.0 5.5 11.5 11.3 (H) ( ) 17.0 22.8 16.7 12.8 15.6 9.4 10.7 17.9 23.6 8.8 14.8 19.9 12.5 15.1 9.3 12.2 38.3 8.6 10.9 15.0 M) (‫)س‬ 21.3 12.3 10.0 14.8 11.7 12.4 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 M) (‫)س‬ M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 14.0 0.4 5.5 10.6 2.3 10.0 0.4 7.2 M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 -0.4 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 71.8 9.2 38.5 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.4 23.1 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.5 Stock Price (QR) 31.5 27.9 17.0 29.0 39.0 11.9 36.2 11.3 6.6 94.8 51.0 122.5 7.8 61.5 70.0 143.4 25.0 99.8 7.4 8.2 62.0 71.0 8.0 19.0 7.3 97.9 12.9 180.9 34.0 41.8 64.3 13.8 15.0 50.0 39.5 53.0 31.5 9.4 9.1 14.0 85.7 7.8 44.0 15.6 55.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4