GCC Daily Market Update - 16 August

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,464.6 (1.2) 21,999.0 5.3 5,907.7 (0.4) 7,383.9 30.0 12,177.0 11.9 5,140.3 18.6 106,913.3 (2,624.1) 19,753.3 216.2 27,175.0 (75.3) 3,251.3 13.9 31,449.0 NA (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) 0.4 0.1 0.4 (2.4) 1.1 (0.3) 0.4 NA (0.2) 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9 (0.6) (0.9) (0.5) (0.7) (3.3) 10.1 11.3 21.5 3.4 6.1 5.7 36.8 3.3 23.5 4.8 18.1 9,134.4 7,103.2 4,471.1 3,579.6 6,843.7 4,938.5 1,311.8 1,667.6 3,333.9 (57.4) (22.2) (9.5) (6.4) (15.6) (39.0) (7.3) (5.1) (5.5) (0.6) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.8) (0.6) (0.3) (0.2) (2.9) 0.1 (2.1) (1.5) (0.1) (1.7) (1.2) (0.5) (0.3) (12.5) (1.5) (1.7) 1.4 19.1 (14.6) 7.5 6.1 14.8 50.8 47.6 2.9 1,273.7 288.3 0.1 (0.0) (0.0) (10.5) (2.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (3.0) (4.9) 4.2 0.6 (0.1) (10.2) (11.2) (21.8) 10.6 15.3 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global markets closed higher yesterday, as geopolitical tensions between US and North Korea eased after the latter decided not to launch missile attacks on Guam. US markets closed slightly lower yesterday, reversing its directions following two sessions of gains. S&P 500 index closed 0.1% lower, led by losses in Telecom and Consumer-Discretionary shares. However, gains in Consumer-Staples and Utilities stocks limited broad market losses. The Stoxx Europe 600 index finished 0.1% higher. Airline stocks were among the notable gainers, amid hopes about the new airport slots becoming available to the existing carriers, following the bankruptcy of Air Berlin. UK’s FTSE 100 index received a boost from a weaker GBP. Japan’s Nikkei index rose 1.1%, as yen eased on account of fading geopolitical tensions. GCC GCC markets ended lower yesterday. Saudi’s TASI closed 0.3% lower, led by losses in Media and Insurance sectors. Dubai’s DFM index eased 0.2%, mainly due to a 4.3% drop in Union Properties (the stock accounted for a third of total volumes traded), after the company’s Q2-17 net loss stood at USD 624mn, on account of provisioning charges due to accounting errors. The index got some support from Emaar Properties which rose 0.1%, after the company reported 14.4% YoY increase Q2-17 earnings. Oman’s MSM index underperformed its peer indices, on account of increased selling pressure in Banking and Services & Insurance shares. Qatar QE index continued its downward trajectory, closing 0.6% lower. Trading volume declined, with Banking, Industrial and Telecommunication sectors accounting for almost 80.0% of the total value. Increased selling pressure from Qatari and foreign institutional investors weighed on the overall market performance. The newly-listed Investment Holding dropped 1.7% in its second trading session. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 40 traded, 27 declined, 10 advanced and 3 remained unchanged QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.1 1.3 4.1 46.4 DSM 20 15.8 1.6 3.8 42.1 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 21/May 30 20 9,134.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.6 3.4 873.5 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.3 4.6 29.9 UAE (DFM) 23.8 1.3 4.0 62.1 Kuwait (KSE) 17.9 1.2 5.3 79.0 Oman (MSM) 11.4 1.0 5.5 5.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.7 0.8 6.0 1.3 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar National Cement Qatar & Oman Invest Qatar German Aamal Co National Leasing Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Salam Intl Investment United Development Mazaya Qatar Medicare Group Close Price 71.8 8.6 8.2 11.0 13.6 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 (8.2) (13.6) (18.8) (19.0) (11.4) (10.5) (24.6) (33.0) (22.0) (28.1) 15.9 8.6 16.2 10.4 80.0 (0.6) (0.2) (0.4) (0.2) (1.6) (3.6) (2.6) (2.6) (2.1) (2.0) (24.6) (22.0) (21.7) (24.1) 27.2 (34.0) (27.6) (24.1) (25.7) (14.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 1.9 12.0 5.6 24.5 33.3 NA 11.0 15.6 45.4 NA 14.4 18.8 466.0 157.0 31.0 27.4 11.6 10.0 43.2 33.5 10 0 4/Jun 18/Jun 2/Jul Index Volume (mn) 16/Jul 30/Jul 13/Aug Index Value Closing Level 2,830.7 5,406.9 2,762.3 4,084.2 1,960.4 1,107.7 1,936.0 1D Change (%) (0.6) (1.4) 0.1 (0.4) (1.4) (1.2) (1.3) Buy (%) 66.2 19.8 86.0 8.9 5.1 14.0 Sell (%) 58.0 21.0 79.0 7.3 13.7 21.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2017 and beverages (2.0%), clothing and footwear (1.8%), and transport (1.7%). (Source: Mubasher) GLOBAL NEWS  US retail sales jumped 0.6% MoM and 4.2% YoY in July-17, registering its largest gain since December-16. The data for June-17 was revised higher to 0.3%. Retail sales gained as consumers increased their discretionary spend. (Source: Nasdaq)  UK consumer prices climbed 2.6% YoY in July-17. Excluding energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, core inflation also remained stable, at 2.4% in July-17. However consumer prices fell 0.1% MoM in July-17. (Source: Morningstar)  Japan's industrial production climbed to a seasonally adjusted 2.2% MoM in June-17. The monthly growth in shipments was revised up to 2.5% from 2.3% and the capacity utilization rate rose 2.1%. On yearly basis industrial production growth moderated to 5.5%. (Source: Interactive  Trade Arabia)  The inflation in Kuwait is expected to decline moderately to 2.9% in 2017, impacted by the lower rent inflation as more housing units enter the Kuwaiti market, according to QNB. The report further added that the inflation should accelerate to 4.2% as the country will implement a 5.0% VAT in the first quarter, raising the cost of non-essential goods and services. (Source: Mubasher)  Kuwait is expected to issue a tender to build the estimated USD 1.2bn Dibdibah solar power plant in the Q1-18, said deputy chief executive officer of planning and finance at Kuwait National Petroleum Company. The 32-sq.km plant, is expected be completed by the end of 2020 in Kuwait’s Northwest. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based GFH Financial Group said that it has completed the acquisition of a USD 1.2bn infrastructure portfolio in Africa and Middle East. The acquisition has been funded by USD 315.0mn capital increase taking GFH’s issued and paid up capital to USD 975.0mn. Investor)  Chinese banks extended CNY 825.5bn (USD 123.7bn) in net new yuan loans in July-17, the lowest since November-16, and down from CNY 1.54tn in June-17. Lower new loans lent can be attributed to property curbs that led to cooling in mortgage lending and seasonal effects. (Source: Reuters)   China’s short-term growth outlook has strengthened but there is growing risk of a sharp medium-term adjustment due to reliance on stimulus to meet targets and a credit-expansion path that may be “dangerous”, the IMF said. (Source: Reuters) Turkey’s budget deficit stood at TRY 24.3bn (approx. USD 6.7bn) in the first seven months of 2017, said Finance Minister of Turkey. He added that budget deficit in this period was recorded due to government incentives and actions to support economic growth. From January-17 to June-17, government revenues reached TRY 351.6bn while expenditures were TRY 375.9bn. (Source: Daily News) Saudi Iron and Steel Company (Hadeed) has increased new rebar price by SAR 150.0 per tonne to SAR 2,000.0 per tonne and new wire rod price has been fixed at SAR 2,000.0 per tonne CPT Riyadh, up by SAR 150.0 per tonne, according to Steel Mills of the World report. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Central Bank of Oman has approved the proposed merger between National Finance Co and Oman Orix Leasing Co. National Finance has proposed cash buyout offer, which is equivalent to 1.2x the book value of Oman Orix at the end of March-17, which is equivalent to approximately 173 baisas per share. (Source: Zawya)  Oman Telecommunications (Omantel) acquisition of a minority stake in Kuwait-based Mobile Telecommunications Co (Zain Group) is credit positive because it will help the company to lower operating costs through synergies, said Moody’s Investors. (Source: Muscat Daily) GCC NEWS  The non-oil trade between the UAE and Mexico hit USD 1.3bn during 2016, according to a Ministry of Economy report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE based companies will be able to begin registering for value-added tax (VAT) from the middle of next month, said the director-general of the Federal Tax Authority. He added that the introduction of VAT is expected to result in inflation increasing by 1.4%. (Source: Zawya)  Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased slightly by 0.2% MoM in July-17 due to higher expenses on food and beverages, recreation and culture, transport, and health. CPI inflation rose 0.2% YoY. The index of Food and Beverage, jumped 4.2% MoM and 4.5% YoY. (Source: Gulf Times)  UAE’s 110 listed companies reported net profits worth AED 31.9bn in H1-17. The banking sector's profits account for 59.5% of the same.  Qatar plans to transform all the houses in the country into production hubs of renewable energy, Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation (Kahramaa) president said. He added there is also a project to produce around 500MW of electricity through solar power. QATAR NEWS (Source: Trade Arabia)      Dubai headquartered Oman Insurance Company’s net profit declined by 27.9% YoY in Q2-17 to AED 26.0mn (USD 7.0mn) and it decreased by 12.0% YoY in H1-17 to AED 51.5mn. (Source: Mubasher) (Source: Gulf Times)  US based KBR, has got a project management consultancy (PMC) contract from Occidental of Abu Dhabi on behalf of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, for the management and design services phase of the Dalma Gas Field Development and design and surveys phase of the Hail & Ghasha Islands project in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia) Ashghal has opened the southern part of Doha Express Highway and Hamad Port Road, which forms the vital parts of Qatar’s expressway network and road projects. (Source: Gulf Times)  Abu Dhabi based Manazel Real Estate’s net profit increased 81.0% YoY in H1-17 to AED 56.5mn and revenue for the same period went up 54.0% YoY to AED 412.0mn. (Source: Trade Arabia) Real estate transaction during the period from 6th August-17 to 10th August-17 were worth QAR 203.9mn. The types of real estate traded included plots of land, houses, residential compounds and apartment building. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The QSE has announced a change in the tick size of all listed stocks to one dirham effective 27th August-17. It indicated that the new tick size would replace the currently implemented three layers of tick sizes. Sharjah based Dana Gas has reported net profit increase of 77.0% YoY in H1-17 to USD 23.0mn and gross revenue stood at USD 222.0mn. The result is attributable to a an increase in the profit entitlement from Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and the positive impact of the cost management program, which further optimized operating costs by 7.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Saudi cost of living index (inflation) dropped by 0.3% YoY in July17 due to the drop in recreation and culture by 2.7%, followed by food (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Rashid bin Ali Al Mansoori said that the bourse will talk to all the stakeholders and make sure that the financial of the listed companies are in line with the global best practices. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Hassad Food recently launched an initiative to focus on nonproductive farms, which represent around 50.0% - 70.0% of the total farms and include these in production lines. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1765 USD/QAR 3.6415 110.6700 EUR/QAR 4.2842 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2899 JPY/QAR 0.0329 USD/CHF 0.9725 GBP/QAR 4.6972 USD/CAD 1.2757 CHF/QAR 3.7445 AUD/USD 0.7821 CAD/QAR 2.8545 NZD/USD 0.7236 AUD/QAR 2.8480 USD/INR 63.6225 INR/QAR 0.0572 USD/TRY 3.5353 TRY/QAR 1.0300 USD/ZAR 13.3156 ZAR/QAR 0.2735 USD/BRL 3.1702 BRL/QAR 1.1487 FX Commentary The USD inched higher against the basket of currencies yesterday, as encouraging US retail sales spurred optimism about the growth prospects of the US economy. Moreover, fading geopolitical concerns also supported the greenback. The dollar index finished 0.5% higher yesterday. The EUR traded lower against the USD, as the German GDP data disappointed market participants. The GBP weakened, as the growth in the UK’s consumer price index data came in below expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of England to maintain its accommodative monetary policy. The safe haven JPY eased, despite the domestic industrial production data topping market expectations. The CAD traded lower amid broad based strength in the greenback and on the back of losses in WTI oil prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.31 1.72 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) 1.87 2.03 2.15 2.38 2.88 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.92 1.11 1.32 1.53 2.15 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.80 1.98 2.75 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.19% 1.35% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.88% 3.10% 3.32% 1.82% 2.08% 2.27% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.37% 2.84% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.9 (0.4) Turkey 175.6 (63.6) UK 18.4 (14.7) Brazil 203.2 (27.0) Germany 14.7 (9.7) Egypt 367.7 (49.1) France 20.8 (37.7) Abu Dhabi Italy 141.3 (44.0) Greece 627.4 Russia 151.2 Japan 29.2 3.1 2.0% 1.60% 2.22% 2.04% 1.89% 1.0% 1.44% 1.28% 0.98% 1.16% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.51% 1.78% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 56.7 4.5 Bahrain 235.9 (7.3) (476.5) Dubai 116.9 (9.9) (27.6) Qatar 94.8 (23.0) Saudi Arabia 91.7 3.4 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 14:00 UK Jobless Claims Change Period Survey Jul - 14:30 Eurozone 14:30 Eurozone Prior 5.9k GDP SA QoQ Q2 P 0.60% 0.60% GDP SA YoY Q2 P 2.10% 2.10% Aug-11th 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications - 3.00% 18:00 US Housing Starts Jul 1220k 1215k 14:00 UK Jobless Claims Change Jul - 5.9k Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 11.5 27.6 (31.1) Dana Gas 221.0 (0.9) (17.2) 43.0 65.4 7.5 Gulf Pharmaceutical Kuwait Food Co (Americana) 269.7 (30.8) (27.0) 21.6 (60.6) (51.8) National Real Estate Co NA NA NA 3.7 (7.4) (3.0) Al Sagr National Insurance NA NA NA 6.8 (59.7) 27.6 Gulf General Investment Co NA NA NA (41.0) 90.3 (16.2) 71.6 29.2 12.5 5.1 257.8 (88.0) NA NA NA 1.1 NM (74.7) Foodco Holding Islamic Arab Insurance Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE August 16 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 2.0 5.9 4.9 3.7 0.0 5.0 7.1 2.3 5.8 3.3 5.3 3.8 5.9 4.0 6.1 0.0 9.3 5.2 6.0 5.8 5.4 4.9 0.0 4.4 4.6 3.9 2.1 7.1 5.1 4.3 3.8 4.2 1.9 4.4 6.2 2.5 7.5 4.2 0.0 7.7 5.3 3.9 0.0 3.1 3.5 5.8 5.4 5.3 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.5 2.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 4.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.7 1.2 2.7 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.5 2.6 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 9.8 67.7 31.4 8.9 70.9 10.7 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 10.5 9.9 24.5 11.2 7.2 33.6 15.4 59.8 14.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.7 12.0 5.8 12.5 15.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.8 21.3 17.0 13.7 21.8 9.7 12.0 18.3 27.2 8.4 20.4 17.1 13.3 18.9 9.8 15.7 44.0 10.0 13.1 15.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.3 12.9 11.1 17.3 13.1 13.6 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.6 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.4 10.6 2.4 10.0 0.4 7.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 5.6 12.9 5.1 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 4.3 0.8 14.2 2.2 4.4 6.0 2.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 2.0 4.3 2.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.1 5.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.6 1.6 3.7 2.1 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 42.3 8.7 34.2 24.3 16.9 16.3 19.9 8.7 60.6 36.7 68.1 9.2 37.6 59.5 34.1 65.5 20.7 68.4 6.2 14.0 16.2 111.0 43.0 12.3 19.5 10.3 53.9 11.1 73.6 20.6 31.6 45.7 23.8 20.2 20.8 29.4 70.7 21.9 35.6 46.7 11.2 12.7 30.3 17.1 69.7 5.5 23.2 26.1 15.0 118.6 32.2 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 31.5 30.1 18.2 30.5 49.1 12.7 40.5 13.6 7.4 94.8 56.0 136.5 8.6 75.8 80.0 153.0 25.0 105.1 8.2 8.6 67.2 75.0 11.0 20.5 8.6 91.6 13.2 194.6 47.5 43.0 71.8 15.9 14.3 69.0 33.9 56.6 33.2 12.1 10.4 16.2 89.6 9.0 46.1 17.2 64.5 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4