Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

Summary: the nature of western representative democracy and vested interests makes Brexit highly unlikely. The only way it is likely is if markets stage a large recovery.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU. The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future. However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

At Ecstrat our focus is on the intersection of politics, governance and markets to determine where the future may lie.

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