Turkey: Survey of Expectations Statistics - December 2020

Transcription

1. SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS STATISTICS December 2020
2. Survey of Expectations Statistics |December 2020 Survey of Expectations Statistics Table 1: Participants Participants Responses Real Sector 8 Business Organizations 1 Holdings 7 Financial Sector 49 Banks 34 Non-Bank Financial Sector 15 Professionals 6 Academy Members 4 Journalists 0 Other Professionals 2 63 Total Annual Inflation Expectations Graph 1: Annual CPI Inflation Expectations (%) End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 12.20 11.20 10.20 09.20 08.20 07.20 06.20 05.20 04.20 03.20 02.20 01.20 12.19 6.00 2
3. Survey of Expectations Statistics | December 2020 Distributions of 12 and 24 Month Ahead Inflation Expectations 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 2: Probability Distribution of 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 3: Distribution of Point Estimates for 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 <9.00 9.00-9.99 10.00-10.99 11.00-11.99 12.00-12.99 ≥ 13.00 0 <9.00 9.00-9.99 10.00-10.99 11.00-11.99 12.00-12.99 ≥ 13.00 24-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 4: Probability Distribution of 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 5: Distribution of Point Estimates for 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 <7.0 7.00-7.99 8.00-8.99 9.00-9.99 10.00-10.99 ≥ 11.00 0 <7.0 7.00-7.99 8.00-8.99 9.00-9.99 10.00-10.99 ≥ 11.00 3
4. Survey of Expectations Statistics | December 2020 Interest Rate Expectations Graph 6: Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding and BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (%) Graph 7: One-week CBRT Repo Aution Interest Rate (%) November-20 Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (End of the Current Month) December-20 18.00 BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (End of the Current Month) 16.00 25.00 14.00 12.00 20.00 10.00 8.00 15.00 6.00 10.00 4.00 2.00 5.00 24-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12.20 11.20 10.20 09.20 08.20 07.20 06.20 05.20 04.20 Graph 8: Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations (%) Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 5 Years (12 Months Ahead) Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 10 Years (12 Months Ahead) 20.00 15.00 10.00 12.20 11.20 10.20 09.20 08.20 07.20 06.20 05.20 04.20 03.20 02.20 01.20 5.00 12.19 03.20 02.20 01.20 12.19 3-Month Ahead Current Month 0.00 0.00 4
5. Survey of Expectations Statistics | December 2020 Exchange Rate Expectations Graph 9: US Dollar Rate Expectations ($/TL) End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 12.20 11.20 10.20 09.20 08.20 07.20 06.20 05.20 04.20 03.20 02.20 01.20 12.19 5.00 GDP Growth Rate Expectations -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 12.20 0.0 11.20 0.0 10.20 1.0 09.20 2.0 1.0 08.20 2.0 07.20 3.0 06.20 3.0 05.20 4.0 04.20 4.0 03.20 5.0 02.20 5.0 01.20 12.20 Graph 11: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2021 (%) 11.20 10.20 09.20 08.20 07.20 06.20 05.20 04.20 03.20 02.20 01.20 12.19 Graph 10: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2020 (%) The Survey of Expectations is conducted on a monthly basis with a panel of 89 participants consisting of 67 experts from the financial sector, 10 experts from the real sector and 12 professionals. Expectations denote the modified mean for each variable. The methodology and results are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu “Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of Expectations Statistics” . Historical results are also released under the menu “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys” . The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. 5
6. Survey of Expectations Statistics | December 2020 Survey of Expectations Aggregated Results (*) Monthly Inflation What is your expectation of the CPI? (%) Annual Inflation Current Month Next Month 2nd Month Ahead 0.90 1.29 0.66 End of the Year (January-December) 14.18 End of the Next 12 10.84 What is your expectation of the US Dollar rate in the interbank foreign exchange market? (Turkish Lira-TRY) (Please indicate in four decimals) End of the Next 24 Months 9.24 End of the Next 5 Years 7.17 End of the Next 10 Years 6.14 End of the Current Month 7.7704 End of the Year 7.7704 End of the Next 12 Months 8.3733 Current Year (January-December) -34.0 Next Year (January-December -22.4 Current Year (January-December) Next Year (January-December 0.5 3.8 3-Month Ahead 16.36 12-Month Ahead 13.22 What is your expectation of the annual current account balance? ( (+)Surplus, (-)Deficit ) ($ Billion) What is your expectation of the GDP growth rate? ( (+) Increase, (-) Decrease ) (%) End of the Current Month What is your expectation of the weighted average cost of the CBRT funding? (%) 16.07 End of the Current Month 16.09 What is your expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market overnight interest rate? (%) End of the Current Month 16.18 3-Month Ahead 16.39 End of the Current 1-Month Ahead 15.55 15.68 What is your expectation of one-week CBRT repo auction interest rate? (%) What is your expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months? (% ) 6-Month Ahead 15.61 12-Month Ahead 13.18 24-Month Ahead 10.71 3-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead 15.53 14.80 12.85 10.95 What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Five Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Ten Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead 12.87 12.49 (*) The figures denote the modified means. 6