Turkey: Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index - April 2020

Transcription

1. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index April 2020 | April 2020 April 24, 2020
2. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | April 2020 BUSINESS TENDENCY STATISTICS AND REAL SECTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX Graph 1. Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) and Seasonally Adjusted RSCI RSCI RSCI-SA 150 130 110 90 70 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 01.12 07.11 01.11 50 RSCI = 100: A stable outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI > 100: An optimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. RSCI < 100: A pessimistic outlook to the economic activity by the real sector agents covered by the Business Tendency Survey. Table 1. Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Last Three Months Current Next Three Months Production Overall Order Books Domestic Order Books Export Order Books Total Employment Average Unit Cost Selling Prices (*) Short arrows indicate monthly changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Apart from unit cost and selling prices, blue coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases. 2
3. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | April 2020 Graph 2. Production, Export Orders and Domestic Orders for the Last Three Months (Balance) Production-last 3 months Domestic orders-last 3 months Export orders-last 3 months 50 30 10 -10 -30 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 -8 07.18 -60 01.18 -4 07.17 -50 01.17 0 07.16 -40 01.16 4 07.15 -30 01.15 8 07.14 -20 01.14 12 07.13 -10 01.13 16 07.12 0 01.12 20 07.11 10 01.11 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 Graph 4. Current Stock of Finished Products (Balance) 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 01.12 07.11 01.11 Graph 3. Current Total Orders (Balance) 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 01.12 07.11 01.11 -50 Balance: Difference between percentage of “positive” (increased, will increase, more optimistic, above normal, improved) responses and percentage of “negative” (decreased, will decrease, more pessimistic, below normal, deteriorated) responses. 3
4. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index Graph 5 . Production, Domestic Orders and Export Orders for the Next Three Months (Balance) | April 2020 Graph 6. Fixed Investment Expenditures for the Next Twelve Months and Total Employment for the Next Three Months (Balance) Production-next 3 months Domestic orders-next 3 months Export orders-next 3 months Fixed investment expenditures-next 12 months Total employment-next 3 months 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 -10 -20 -20 -40 -30 Graph 7. Unit Cost for the Last and Next Three Months (Balance) 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 Selling prices-next 3 months Unit cost-next 3 months 01.20 04.20 -10 07.19 -10 01.19 0 07.18 0 01.18 10 07.17 10 01.17 20 07.16 20 01.16 30 07.15 40 30 01.15 40 07.14 50 01.14 50 07.13 60 01.13 70 60 07.12 70 01.12 80 07.11 80 01.11 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 07.12 01.12 07.11 Graph 8. Unit Cost and Selling Prices for the Next Three Months (Balance) Unit cost-next 3 months 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 01.12 07.11 01.11 Unit cost-last 3 monhts -40 01.11 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 01.12 07.11 01.11 -60 4
5. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | April 2020 Graph 9. Factors Limiting Production (%) (*) January 2020 Shortage of material and/or equipment 12.8% Shortage of material and/or equipment 8.5% Financial constraints 8.7% No Limiting Factors 26.4% 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 -20 01.18 -20 07.17 -16 01.17 -16 07.16 -12 01.16 -12 07.15 -8 01.15 -8 07.14 -4 01.14 0 -4 07.13 4 0 01.13 8 4 07.12 12 8 01.12 12 07.11 01.20 04.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 Graph 11. Competitive Position in Foreign Markets Outside EU (Balance) 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 Graph 10. Competitive Position in Foreign Markets Inside EU (Balance) 01.12 Financial constraints 10.4% Others 15.1% 01.11 Others 5.1% 07.11 Shortage of labour force 9.8% Shortage of labour force 8.2% No Limiting Factors 48.7% 01.11 April 2020 Insufficient demand 25.4% Insufficient demand 20.8% (*) In April 2020, 69.2 percent of those enterprises which stated that other factors limited their production, noted that these factors were related to the "Covid-19 Coronavirus Epidemic". 5
6. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | April 2020 Graph 12. General Course of Business (Balance) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 04.20 01.20 07.19 01.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 07.12 01.12 07.11 01.11 -70 The aggregated results of the Business Tendency Statistics computed as weighted averages have been published as part of the " Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Turkey. Starting from May 2007, Business Tendency Survey became a part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and has been co-financed by CBRT and the European Commission. Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu "Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index" . In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys” .      The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. For any views and suggestions: 5
7. Business Tendency Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index | April 2020 Business Tendency Survey Weighted Aggregated Results (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER How has your production developed over the past 3 months? 2019 -13.4 -6.0 -10.9 -0.2 7.0 19.5 4.8 4.8 -2.2 9.1 4.0 8.5 2020 3.6 2.8 -0.4 -23.6 Do you consider your current overall order books to be...? 2019 -26.5 -31.0 -23.4 -18.5 -19.9 -17.2 -26.6 -19.1 -24.4 -20.8 -20.4 -15.4 2020 -17.7 -14.2 -17.3 -51.5 Do you consider your current export order books to be...? 2019 -13.8 -13.8 -8.9 -8.9 -11.2 -6.9 -20.0 -15.0 -13.3 -12.3 -8.0 -8.7 2020 -15.6 -9.1 -18.8 -53.7 Do you consider your current stok of finished products to be...? 2019 6.4 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.6 4.4 3.6 5.2 1.5 1.2 1.6 2020 2.9 5.7 3.3 1.3 How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? 2019 6.5 16.9 21.9 25.6 15.0 11.0 11.5 12.5 9.9 8.1 8.2 8.5 2020 16.9 27.9 14.6 -38.8 How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 3 months? 2019 16.8 13.9 18.2 22.1 22.5 16.3 15.5 12.4 8.6 16.3 19.0 20.6 2020 25.3 22.8 20.3 -0.3 How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? 2019 0.8 3.3 7.4 6.6 7.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 4.5 4.7 3.5 5.2 2020 6.5 8.9 4.2 -13.5 2019 0.4 1.0 Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capacity? 2020 2.1 1.8 How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books ? 2019 3.5 3.7 2020 3.8 3.2 How have your overall orders developed over the past 3 months? 2019 -21.6 -22.1 -9.6 5.7 2020 0.8 2.0 1.5 -23.7 How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 3 months? 2019 10.7 19.2 20.3 29.5 2020 17.5 26.6 10.1 -49.4 Capacity Utilization Rate Manufacturing Industry. They will... 2019 74.4 74.0 74.3 75.0 2020 75.5 76.0 75.3 61.6 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? 2019 -10.3 -4.4 2020 4.7 -10.0 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2019 -1.9 -5.3 2020 -4.1 -14.8 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2019 -0.7 -3.6 2020 -4.3 How do you expect your overall orders to develop over the next 3 months? 2019 9.1 15.9 23.5 22.4 2020 18.1 29.5 15.2 -45.8 How have your export orders developed over the past 3 months? 2019 6.2 -2.7 5.5 12.7 2020 -1.2 7.3 -5.9 -40.3 Do you consider your current domestic order books to be...? 2019 -39.2 -37.5 -35.6 -27.1 2020 -20.8 -17.9 -16.2 -52.7 How have your domestic orders developed over the past 3 months? 2019 -33.1 -29.4 -24.8 -13.3 2020 -1.7 -2.0 3.2 -24.4 How do you expect your domestic order books to develop over the next 3 months? 2019 -1.9 7.9 16.5 12.8 2020 12.1 23.4 9.9 -48.3 How do you expect your domestic market selling prices to change over the next 3 months? 2019 16.5 11.7 17.4 22.8 2020 22.2 24.4 26.6 2.6 2019 -2.3 -1.1 5.9 5.5 of Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months? -1.3 3.9 3.9 -2.4 14.1 -3.7 0.9 -9.2 3.3 8.2 6.4 18.2 16.1 12.8 18.8 17.0 16.1 8.9 11.5 76.3 77.1 76.2 76.6 76.3 76.4 77.2 77.0 -4.1 -2.1 -6.4 -5.9 -7.2 -10.4 -14.4 2020 3.4 5.9 -0.3 -30.1 How has your average unit cost changed over the past 3 months? 2019 42.9 41.5 47.7 50.7 2020 36.7 38.7 37.9 34.9 How do you expect your average unit cost to change over the next 3 months? 2019 42.4 39.7 40.7 44.7 2020 39.9 32.5 39.8 45.1 2019 23.4 23.2 22.6 22.5 2020 13.3 13.1 13.2 13.5 What is your expectation for inflation (producer prices) rate over the next twelve months (as an annual percentage)? -0.3 How do you expect the short term Turkish Lira credit interest rate to change over the next three months? 2019 -5.3 -12.5 -10.3 10.7 2020 -25.1 -13.2 -5.3 1.1 Your opinion about the general course of business in your industry, compared to previous month. 2019 -17.1 -7.3 -4.1 -9.3 2020 8.5 3.4 -12.1 -57.5 12.9 15.6 15.3 11.3 10.2 11.0 4.5 8.7 0.7 10.3 -9.5 1.5 0.3 5.1 13.5 5.3 -32.0 -30.6 -34.8 -29.5 -29.8 -26.0 -26.1 -22.4 -12.0 -0.1 -11.8 -16.1 -12.8 -1.9 -1.9 1.5 8.4 9.7 6.0 5.8 -1.6 4.3 2.1 4.1 22.6 17.4 14.9 10.2 10.8 15.2 15.4 23.2 -4.3 2.2 1.5 2.6 0.6 1.7 6.3 10.8 56.5 46.6 40.4 30.8 34.6 36.4 26.6 31.6 47.9 36.8 37.9 29.3 32.9 43.3 31.5 42.0 23.5 22.7 21.6 20.0 18.4 16.2 15.1 14.0 30.6 4.1 -24.5 -40.4 -41.9 -23.2 -25.5 -24.4 -21.7 -9.8 -10.1 1.9 -2.7 -4.1 2.1 3.5 Note: Weighted and unweighted aggregated results of Business Tendency Survey are published under http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/cbt-uk.html as time-series.