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State Bank of Pakistan: Monetary Policy Information Compendium - March 2018

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6 years ago
State Bank of Pakistan: Monetary Policy Information Compendium - March 2018

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  1. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Consolidated by Statistics & DWH Department STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN
  2. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Tables and Graphs Real Sector  Growth …………………………………………………………………........  Saving and Investment…………………………………………………  Inflation …………………………………………………………………….. 1 3 4 External Sector  Balance of Payments …………………………………………………...  Trade and Foreign Investment………………………………………  Global Economy …………………………………………………………. 8 9 10 Fiscal Accounts and Debt  Revenues, Expenditures, and Fiscal Balances ………………..  Government Domestic Debt ……………………………………........  External Debt ……………………………………………………………...  Total Debt ………………………………………………………………….... 12 13 14 15 Monetary Sector  Monetary and Credit Aggregates ………………………………..…  Private Sector Credit …………………………………………………....  Key Indicators of Monetary Sector…………………………………  Trends In Monetary Aggregates……………………………..……… 16 18 19 20 Financial Markets  Money Market …………………………………………………………....  Foreign Exchange Market ……………………………………………  Capital Market …………………………………………………………....  Financial Soundness Indicators …………………………………… 21 27 29 30 II
  3. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Growth Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector (percent) Groups FY18 Cumulative change during (Jul-Jan) 12-months MA change1 YoY Change(Jan) Weights FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY17 FY16 Overall 70.2 9.4 1.5 7.3 2.6 6.3 3.6 5.6 3.1 Textile 20.9 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 Food, beverages and tobacco 12.4 12.2 -0.1 10.4 1.9 3.3 4.7 11.5 0.6 Petroleum products 5.4 18.0 3.9 8.9 -3.8 9.4 0.3 3.4 -0.5 Iron and steel products 5.4 17.0 28.0 29.9 4.3 33.9 17.5 20.5 -9.3 Non-metallic mineral products 5.4 22.7 -0.2 6.9 9.8 12.0 7.9 4.4 10.0 Automobile 4.6 17.9 9.9 19.6 4.1 21.2 7.1 11.2 16.1 Fertilizer 4.4 12.9 -14.2 -3.3 5.7 -7.3 1.2 1.7 13.9 Pharmaceuticals 3.6 2.1 7.3 6.3 7.1 3.5 8.0 9.2 6.7 Paper and board 2.3 3.1 6.7 8.8 9.5 9.0 11.2 7.2 -1.5 Electronics 2.0 17.3 14.2 38.1 11.9 45.2 15.4 17.0 -1.8 Chemicals 1.7 1.6 -4.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 -3.5 -2.1 8.1 Leather products 0.9 -13.9 -26.4 -7.9 -12.6 -5.3 -21.8 -17.0 6.9 Wood products 0.6 -55.9 -13.9 -14.2 -96.9 -23.8 -96.1 -93.7 -65.8 Engineering products 0.4 13.6 31.9 7.4 -4.0 5.6 1.2 4.0 -14.8 Rubber products 0.3 10.8 -1.2 3.5 1.4 6.6 0.0 -0.1 7.3 MA=Moving Average: These changes are calculated on the basis of 12 month average of LSM index over the 12 month average of preceding year Overall LSM Index Overall LSM Growth (YoY and Cumulative) FY17-YoY 180 16 170 14 FY17- Cummulative FY18-Cummulative 12 160 10 percent 150 140 130 8 6 4 2 120 Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Jul Jan-18 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-14 Oct-14 -4 Jan-14 100 Apr-14 -2 Oct 0 110 Aug Index FY18-YoY Sep 1 Major Crops Production (million tons) FY18T FY17 Cotton2 13.6 Sugarcane 70.3 Rice Wheat 2 T percent change FY17 Over FY16 Area under cultivation percent (million hectares) change FY17 Over FY17 FY16 FY16 Yield FY17 FY16 percent change FY17 Over FY16 (Kg/hectare) FY16 FY15 10.7 9.9 14.0 7.6 2.5 2.9 -14.2 729 581 25.5 73.6 65.5 62.8 12.4 1.2 1.1 7.6 60,482 57,897 4.5 6.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 0.7 2.7 2.7 -0.5 2,514 2,483 1.3 26.5 25.8 25.6 25.1 0.5 9.1 9.2 -1.9 2,845 2,779 2.4 Cotton production is stated in million bales of 375 lbs each. : Target Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Planning Commission of Pakistan. Real Sector 1
  4. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Production Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 2005-06 (percent) Growth FY17P Share Contribution2 Growth FY16 FY15 Growth in Real GDP at basic price (percent) Actual Agriculture of which 3.5 19.5 0.7 0.3 2.1 Important crops 4.1 4.7 0.2 -5.5 -1.6 Other crops 0.2 2.2 0.0 0.6 2.5 6.0 Livestock 3.4 11.4 0.4 3.4 4.0 4.0 Industry of which 5.0 20.9 1.1 5.8 5.2 Manufacturing 5.3 13.4 0.7 3.7 3.9 4.9 10.7 0.5 2.9 3.3 Large-scale Small-scale Construction 8.2 1.8 0.1 8.2 8.2 9.0 2.7 0.2 14.6 7.3 Target 9.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 4.3 4.4 FY13 FY14 5.5 5.7 6.0 FY16 R FY17 P FY18 T 5.1 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 FY15 Growth in Agriculture (percent) Actual Target 9.0 Services of which Wholesale & retail trade Transport Storage and Communications 6.0 59.6 3.5 5.5 4.4 6.8 18.5 1.2 4.3 2.6 7.0 3.9 13.3 0.5 4.8 5.1 5.0 10.8 3.4 0.3 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.6 0.5 9.7 4.8 Real GDP (basic prices) 5.3 100.0 5.3 4.5 4.1 Real GDP (market prices) 5.7 106.2 6.0 5.5 4.7 P R FY15 Finance & insurance General Government Services FY17 FY16 Real GDP (bp, billion Rs) 11,697 11,111 10,632 Nominal GDP (mp, billion Rs) 31,862 29,103 27,443 304 279 271 Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$)1 Consumption 6.0 0.0 FY13 8.0 FY17P Share Contribution 4 Growth 4.0 FY16 FY15 3.0 Target 7.7 7.3 4.8 1.0 2.9 Government 10.7 11.8 1.1 8.2 8.1 Fixed capital formation 8.3 14.7 1.1 6.7 15.8 4.1 10.6 0.4 6.2 12.1 9.0 20.7 4.1 0.7 8.1 28.6 8.0 5.7 1.6 0.1 5.5 4.7 -70.8 -8.5 -3.7 -51.2 -15.8 -0.2 9.1 0.0 -1.6 -6.3 24.0 17.1 3.5 11.7 -1.6 5.7 100.0 5.7 5.5 4.7 3.8 2.0 6.9 0.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 R FY17 P FY18 T Growth in Services (percent) Actual 7.0 6.0 4.6 4.5 5.2 FY13 FY14 FY15 Target 5.7 5.7 FY16 R FY17 P 6.4 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Indirect Taxes 10.9 6.5 0.7 17.6 10.7 Subsidies -1.8 0.7 0.0 -20.3 -21.2 5.3 94.2 5.0 4.5 4.1 8.8 108.0 8.8 7.0 5.1 Total domestic demand FY18 T 5.0 6.4 3 FY17 P 6.4 6.0 79.9 GDP (basic prices) FY16 R 6.8 7.0 8.6 GDP (market prices) FY15 Actual 3.5 Net exports of goods and nonfactor services Exports of goods and non-factor services Imports of goods and non-factor services FY14 9.0 7.1 Changes in stocks 3.5 1.0 7.5 Public plus general government 3.5 3.3 2.0 91.7 Private 3.9 3.6 3.0 8.9 Private 4.0 4.0 Growth in Industry (percent) Expenditure Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 2005-06 (percent) Growth 8.0 0.0 FY18 T 1 GDP in dollar terms is calculated using weighted average exchange rate during the year. 2 Contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP (bp). 3 Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation and change in stock expenditures on real GDP. 4 Contributions in GDP growth are based on total domestic demand except Indirect taxes and Subsidies. T : Target Real Sector 2
  5. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Saving and Investment Saving and Investment (at current market prices) as percent of GDP A. Investment Gross fixed investment Private sector Public Sector incl. general government Actual Trends in Saving and Investment FY17P FY16R FY15 17.2 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.6 14.2 14.0 13.9 11.2 9.9 10.2 10.2 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 14.6 13.1 14.3 14.5 - - - 7.5 -2.6 -2.7 -1.3 -1.1 Investment Savings 18.0 16.0 percent of GDP FY18 Target 14.0 12.0 Change in capital stocks B. National savings C. Domestic savings Saving investment gap (B - A) 10.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 P FY18 T Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors 1 (at Current Market prices) FY17P Percent share in total Percent of GDP Percent of GDP FY16 FY15 Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors1 Agriculture 2.9 26.5 2.9 3.0 Mining and quarrying 0.3 2.8 0.3 0.3 15.0 Manufacturing 1.6 14.5 1.6 1.6 12.0 Construction 0.3 2.6 0.2 0.1 Electricity and gas 0.6 5.3 0.6 0.8 Transport and communication 1.6 14.9 1.8 2.0 Wholesale and retail trade 0.3 2.5 0.3 0.3 3.0 Finance and insurance 0.2 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 Agriculture Manufacturing Ownership of Dwellings Services Ownership of dwellings Services Total 1 1.9 17.8 2.0 2.1 1.2 11.0 1.2 1.1 10.9 100.0 11.0 11.4 as percent of GDP Others 9.0 6.0 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 R FY17 P Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available. P : Provisional; R: Revised; Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan, Real Sector 3
  6. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Inflation (Calculated from price indices with base year 2007-08) CPI Inflation 3.8 Year on Year Mar-17 0.8 0.7 4.9 3.9 Apr-17 1.4 0.4 4.8 3.9 May-17 0.0 0.3 5.0 4.1 Jun-17 -0.4 -0.3 3.9 4.2 Jul-17 0.3 -0.4 2.9 4.1 Aug-17 0.2 0.1 3.4 4.0 Sep-17 0.6 0.7 3.9 4.0 2 Oct-17 0.7 0.6 3.8 4.0 1 Nov-17 0.4 0.5 4.0 4.0 0 Dec-17 -0.1 0.8 4.6 4.1 -1 Jan-18 0.0 0.1 4.4 4.1 Feb-18 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.5 3.8 4.0 4.1 4 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 CPI Food Inflation 3.5 YoY 1.9 1.0 5.0 3.6 1.7 0.3 4.4 3.6 May-17 -0.2 0.2 4.9 3.8 Jun-17 -1.1 -1.2 2.4 3.8 Jul-17 0.0 -1.2 -0.1 3.4 Aug-17 0.4 0.1 1.2 3.2 Sep-17 1.3 1.3 2.4 3.1 2 Oct-17 0.6 0.5 2.2 2.9 1 Nov-17 0.4 0.3 2.4 2.8 Dec-17 -0.6 1.2 3.8 2.9 Jan-18 -1.0 -0.2 3.7 3.0 Feb-18 -1.1 -0.5 0.0 0.7 2.2 3.2 2.9 7 6 percent 5 4 3 0 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Aug-16 Feb-16 -1 (percent change) CPI Non-Food Inflation Feb-17 0.3 0.5 4.6 4.0 Mar-17 0.1 0.4 4.9 4.1 Apr-17 1.2 0.4 5.1 4.2 May-17 0.2 0.4 5.1 4.3 Jun-17 0.1 0.3 5.0 4.4 Jul-17 0.6 0.2 5.1 4.5 Aug-17 0.1 0.2 5.0 4.6 Sep-17 0.2 0.2 4.9 4.7 2 Oct-17 0.8 0.6 4.9 4.8 1 Nov-17 0.4 0.6 5.1 4.8 0 Dec-17 0.2 0.5 5.1 4.9 -1 Jan-18 0.8 0.4 4.9 5.0 Feb-18 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 YoY 12 months moving average 8 7 6 4 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 3 Dec-16 percent 5 Aug-16 CPI - Non Food (62.52 % weight in basket) 12 month moving average 8 Jun-16 3.7 Apr-17 3-year average for February Feb-17 (percent change) 1.5 Mar-17 3-year average for February Oct-16 3 Feb-16 percent 5 Jun-16 0.3 6 Apr-16 CPI - Food (37.48 % weight in basket) Feb-17 7 Apr-16 3-year average for February 12 Month Moving Average 8 Dec-16 4.2 Jun-16 0.9 (percent change) 12M moving 3 4 YoY average Aug-16 MoM SA 0.3 2 Feb-16 MoM Feb-17 1 Apr-16 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. 1 Month-on-Month; 2 Month-on-month changes in seasonally adjusted series; 3 Year-on-Year; 4 These changes are calculated on the basis of 12 month average of CPI over the 12 month average of preceding year. Real Sector 4
  7. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Core Inflation - Non-food non-energy (53.52% weight in basket) (percent change) 12M moving MoM YoY average Core Inflation- Non-Food Non-Energy Feb-17 0.2 5.3 4.9 Mar-17 0.1 5.2 4.9 Apr-17 1.3 5.5 5.0 May-17 0.2 5.5 5.1 7 Jun-17 0.1 5.5 5.2 6 Jul-17 0.7 5.6 5.3 Aug-17 0.1 5.5 5.3 Sep-17 0.1 5.4 5.4 Oct-17 0.9 5.3 5.4 Nov-17 0.3 5.4 5.4 Dec-17 0.2 5.5 5.4 Jan-18 0.8 5.2 5.4 Feb-18 0.2 0.2 5.2 5.0 5.4 3-year average for February percent 12 month moving average 5 4 3 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 2 (percent change) Core Inflation- 20% Trimmed Mean Feb-17 0.2 4.1 3.8 Mar-17 0.2 4.5 3.7 Apr-17 0.8 4.8 3.7 8 May-17 0.2 4.8 3.9 7 Jun-17 0.0 4.2 3.8 Jul-17 0.4 4.0 4.0 Aug-17 0.1 4.2 4.0 Sep-17 0.1 4.1 4.0 Oct-17 0.6 4.0 4.0 Nov-17 0.3 4.2 4.2 Dec-17 0.2 4.7 4.8 Jan-18 0.6 4.6 4.4 Feb-18 0.1 0.1 4.3 4.0 4.4 percent 3 Dec-17 Feb-18 Dec-17 Feb-18 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jun-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 2 (percent change) 12M moving average YoY Apr-17 0.9 0.4 6.0 3.4 May-17 -0.2 -0.2 5.2 3.8 Jun-17 -0.5 -1.1 3.3 4.0 Jul-17 -0.2 -0.6 0.7 3.8 Aug-17 0.3 -0.1 1.0 3.6 Sep-17 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 Oct-17 0.6 0.6 2.3 3.4 Nov-17 0.4 0.8 2.9 3.4 Dec-17 0.4 1.2 3.4 3.5 Jan-18 1.8 1.7 4.7 3.5 Feb-18 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 4.1 3.3 3.4 WPI Inflation YoY 12 months moving average 9 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -9 Oct-17 2.9 Aug-17 6.4 Jun-17 2.4 0.6 Apr-17 5.3 0.7 Feb-17 0.8 Mar-17 Dec-16 0.5 Oct-16 Feb-17 Aug-16 MoM SA 4 Jun-16 MoM 5 Apr-16 Wholesale Price Index (WPI) 12 month moving average 6 percent 3-year average for February YoY Feb-16 Core - 20% Trimmed YoY 8 3-year average for February Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Real Sector 5
  8. Monetary Policy Information Compendium WPI Inflation - Food 5 .9 Apr-17 2.0 0.9 6.5 6.3 May-17 -0.5 -0.5 5.2 6.3 Jun-17 -0.9 -2.0 1.7 6.0 Jul-17 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 5.2 Aug-17 0.4 0.0 0.4 4.8 Sep-17 0.5 0.8 0.7 4.2 -3 Oct-17 0.8 0.8 1.5 3.8 -5 Nov-17 -0.6 0.5 2.0 3.4 -7 Dec-17 0.2 1.5 3.6 3.2 -9 Jan-18 -0.2 0.2 3.3 3.0 Feb-18 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 2.3 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 1.1 May-17 0.1 0.0 5.1 1.8 7 Jun-17 -0.1 -0.3 4.5 2.5 5 Jul-17 -0.7 -0.7 1.9 2.7 3 Aug-17 0.2 -0.2 1.6 2.7 Sep-17 -0.3 0.4 2.3 2.9 -1 Oct-17 0.4 0.5 2.9 3.1 -3 Nov-17 1.2 1.0 3.6 3.5 -5 Dec-17 0.5 0.9 3.2 3.7 -7 Jan-18 3.4 2.9 5.9 3.9 Feb-18 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 5.5 2.8 4.0 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-16 1 Target vs. Actual CPI Inflation WPI Headline Food Non Food FY13 7.4 7.1 7.5 7.3 FY14 8.6 9.0 8.3 8.2 FY15 4.5 3.5 5.3 -0.3 FY16 2.9 2.1 3.4 -1.1 Actual Target 15 12.0 12 9.5 9 8.0 8.0 6.0 6 FY17 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.0 FY17 (Jul-Feb) 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.5 FY18 (Jul-Feb) 3.8 2.2 5.0 2.6 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Real Sector Aug-17 Apr-17 12 months moving average (percent change) CPI percent Average CPI and WPI Inflation percent Apr-17 9 3-year average for February Feb-17 Feb-16 percent YoY Dec-17 6.0 WPI Inflation - Non Food -0.3 Oct-17 0.4 (percent change) 4.8 Aug-17 0.3 1 -1 Jun-17 Mar-17 0.8 3 Apr-17 0.8 5 Feb-17 WPI - Non Food (61.18% weight in basket) Feb-17 7 Dec-16 3-year average for February 12 month moving average 9 Oct-16 6.1 Dec-16 7.0 Aug-16 0.8 YoY Oct-16 1.1 5.9 Aug-16 0.8 Jun-16 MoM SA 0.1 Jun-16 Mar-17 MoM Apr-16 Feb-17 (percent change) 12M moving YoY average Apr-16 WPI -Food (38.82% weight in basket) March 2018 6.0 6.0 3 0 11.0 7.4 8.6 4.5 2.9 4.2 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 6
  9. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 CPI and SPI Inflation by Groups Group-Wise CPI Inflation Feb-18 Groups I . Jan-18 Weights 1 1 MoM YoY 12m MA MoM YoY 12m MA 37.5 -1.1 2.2 2.9 -1.0 3.7 3.0 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 34.8 -1.3 3.4 3.6 -1.2 5.1 3.5 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 1.4 1.4 -17.4 -9.6 1.1 -18.2 -7.2 Restaurant & hotels 1.2 0.1 6.5 5.7 0.6 6.7 5.5 62.5 0.2 4.9 5.0 0.8 4.9 5.0 Clothing and footwear 7.6 0.4 4.6 3.9 0.9 4.3 3.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas fuels 29.4 0.0 4.2 4.9 0.8 4.2 5.0 Furnishing & household equipment maintenance etc. 4.2 0.2 4.1 3.0 0.9 4.0 2.8 Health 2.2 1.1 5.0 10.9 0.4 4.7 11.7 Transport 7.2 1.0 5.6 4.2 1.6 5.7 3.7 Communication 3.2 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.0 1.3 1.4 Recreation and culture 2.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.5 Education 3.9 0.0 12.1 11.4 0.0 12.4 11.3 Miscellaneous 2.8 -0.2 5.9 5.5 1.0 7.2 5.4 100 -0.3 3.8 4.1 0.0 4.4 4.1 MoM Feb-18 YoY 12m MA1 Food group II. Non-food group Overall Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) (percent change) Income groups 1-Mar-18 8-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 WoW2 22-Mar-18 Up to Rs 8000 -0.17 0.11 -0.29 -0.12 -1.2 0.5 1.6 Rs 8001-12000 -0.12 0.14 -0.27 -0.11 -1.1 0.8 1.6 Rs 12001-18000 -0.08 0.16 -0.27 -0.11 -1.0 1.0 2.0 Rs 18001-35000 -0.01 0.18 -0.27 -0.10 -0.9 1.0 2.0 Above Rs 35000 0.16 0.20 -0.24 -0.08 -0.6 1.6 2.3 All 0.03 0.17 -0.26 -0.10 -0.9 1.3 2.2 SPI Inflation-Monthly SPI Inflation-Weekly YoY YoY 52 Week moving average 10 8 8 6 percent percent 12 Month moving average 10 12 4 2 0 6 4 2 -2 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Apr-16 22-Mar-18 29-Jan-18 24-Feb-18 03-Jan-18 08-Dec-17 17-Oct-17 12-Nov-17 21-Sep-17 31-Jul-17 26-Aug-17 05-Jul-17 09-Jun-17 18-Apr-17 14-May-17 23-Mar-17 1 Feb-16 0 -4 Twelve month moving average inflation 2 WoW: Week on Week. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Real Sector 7
  10. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Balance of Payments Balance of Payments Summary (million US$) Current, Capital and Financial Balance (Billion US$) Jul-Feb A) Current account balance (CAB) Trade balance C & F account balance FY18 FY17 FY17 FY16 -10,826 -7,216 -12,439 -4,867 -19,722 -16,213 -26,642 -19,390 Exports 15,963 14,227 21,931 21,965 Imports 35,685 30,440 48,573 41,355 -3,500 -2,707 -4,199 -3,312 Services (net); of which CSF 0 350 550 937 Income (net) -3,148 -3,074 -5,057 -5,334 Current transfers (net); of which 15,544 14,778 23,459 23,169 12,835 12,410 19,351 19,917 7,447 6,312 10,315 7,063 Remittances B) Capital and financial (C&F) account balance ; of which Foreign direct investment (net)1 1,936 1,625 2,630 2,286 Foreign portfolio investment (net) 2,285 686 -235 -429 Other investment assets Other investment liabilities Of which : General government of which: Disbursements Amortization C) Net Errors and omissions Overall balance (A+B+C) SBP gross reserves 2 SBP net liquid reserves -96 -8.0 8,834 5,029 -10.0 2,390 1,292 4,906 3,445 -12.0 4,747 3,888 9,280 6,159 -14.0 2,357 2,596 4,374 2,714 178 456 -1,946 2,652 12,227 18,450 17,081 17,550 16,144 19,446 18,143 FY15 FY16 FY17 Capital and financial account As percent of GDP (RHS) 12.0 4.0 3.5 10.0 3.0 8.0 -4.8 -3.6 -4.1 -1.7 6.0 Exports 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.9 Imports 16.0 15.0 16.0 14.8 2.0 3.3 3.1 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 FDI -6.0 FY14 Capital and Financial Account Balance (Billion US$) 4.0 Capital and financial inflows; of which -4.0 FY13 As percent of GDP 4 Current account balance; of which -2.0 -6.0 -1,253 13,919 3 -4.0 -148 -104 0.0 -2.0 3,898 -1,008 As percent of GDP (RHS) 0.0 46 -396 Overall balance Current Account Balance (Billion US$) Current account balance 2,950 -3,775 CAB 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Items 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 1 Net FDI equals direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad. 2 SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but it excludes unsettled claims on RBI. 3 SBP reserves without CRR and foreign currency cash holding of SBP. 4 For FY17 revised and for FY18 provisional GDP has been used and average exchange rate has been used to calculate GDP in US$. UK 1,786 1,449 23.3 13.9 2,342 2,580 Saudi Arabia 3,263 3,574 -8.7 25.4 5,470 5,968 UAE 2,844 2,780 2.3 22.2 4,328 4,365 Other GCC 1,464 1,510 -3.0 11.4 2,325 2,423 All others 1,765 1,572 12.3 13.8 2,433 2,056 6 Jun 2,525 Apr 19,917 2,453 May 19,351 13.3 Mar 100.0 12.2 Jan 3.4 1,525 Feb 12,411 1,712 FY17 Dec 12,835 USA FY18 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Oct Jul-Feb FY18 FY16 Nov FY17 Workers' Remittances (Billion US$) FY17 Sep FY18 Share JulFeb FY18 Aug Total inflows YoY growth Jul Workers' Remittances5 (million US$) Jul-Feb 5 Only cash, 6 Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. External Sector 8
  11. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Trade and Foreign Investment Trade in Goods -Major Groups (million US$) FY18 FY17 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 Jun Apr May Mar Jan Feb Dec Oct Nov Aug Sep 1000 Jul -3.5 Exports (Billion US$) Export reciepts YoY growth (RHS, in percent) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 -30 Aug-16 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Apr-16 Imports (Billion US$) Import payments YoY growth (RHS, in percent) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 -20 Dec-16 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Oct-16 21,965 12,756 4,436 2,332 1,266 2,156 3,805 1,052 906 347 214 7 3,722 1,853 1,682 41,355 8,360 5,098 2,570 7,097 1,201 1,651 1,356 6,715 1,791 734 4,600 1,600 490 3,663 2,931 10,920 -19,390 Feb-16 21,931 12,454 4,490 2,123 1,140 2,279 3,655 1,110 865 242 183 8 3,612 1,575 2,211 48,573 10,607 6,380 2,765 7,910 1,023 1,325 1,620 7,123 1,875 572 5,419 1,784 517 3,786 3,061 13,729 -26,642 Jun-16 All others Trade Balance FY16 Aug-16 Power machinery Agriculture & other chemicals group Plastic materials Fertilizer manufactured Food group Palm oil Tea Metal group Iron steel (IS) and IS scrap FY17 14,227 8,186 2,941 1,428 749 1,484 2,310 664 556 186 115 6 2,210 993 1,521 30,440 6,768 4,144 1,778 5,053 612 811 1,013 4,566 1,183 398 3,478 1,149 362 2,293 1,858 8,282 -16,213 Trade Balance (Billion US$) FY17 Apr-16 Exports Textile group Knitwear, bed wear Cotton cloth Cotton Yarn Readymade garments Other manufactures group Chemical and pharma Leather items2 Cement Engineering goods Jewellery Food group Rice All others Imports Petroleum group Petroleum products Petroleum crude Machinery group Telecom Electrical machinery FY18 15,963 8,851 3,285 1,427 825 1,645 2,710 952 633 147 132 4 2,766 1,211 1,635 35,685 8,620 4,905 2,493 5,726 867 1,265 1,086 5,289 1,443 543 3,656 1,274 363 3,051 2,491 9,343 -19,722 Share1 Jul-Feb FY18 100 55 21 9 5 10 17 6 4 1 1 0 17 8 10 100 24 14 7 16 2 4 3 15 4 2 10 4 1 9 7 26 Feb-16 Jul-Feb 1 Share (in percent) is calculated as a ratio of cumulative flow of a group (item) to cumulative flow of total exports/imports during Jul-Feb FY18. 2 Includes tanned and manufactured leather. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (million US$) Jul-Feb Memorandum Item: Net overall FDI3 FY17 FY16 Net Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan (Million US$) FY18 FY17 1,941 1,679 15.6 2,731 2,305 66 15 205 1,281 8 78 140 536 756.4 -80.3 46.8 139.1 45 120 216 1,204 13 110 152 1,064 600 -42 230 139 711 58 -82 172 85 373 17 49.0 33.9 62.3 90.8 242.3 -49 296 146 700 33 237 289 249 1,159 27 200 1936 1625 2630 2286 FY18 FY17 800 700 500 400 300 100 Jun May Apr Feb Mar Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug 0 Jul Net inflows: Of which Selected Countries USA UAE UK China Selected Sectors Communication Financial businesses Oil and gas exploration Power Trade YoY growth Jul-Feb FY18 Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. 3 These numbers correspond to net FDI flows given in the balance of payments table and adjusted for net FDI made by Pakistanis abroad. External Sector 9
  12. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Global Economy Policy Rates in Major Economies Policy Rates Current Major economies Policy rate w .e.f Previous policy rate USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka 9 Change (bps) 7 1.75 21-Mar-2018 1.50 25 UK 0.50 2-Nov-2017 0.25 25 Euro zone 0.00 10-Mar-2016 0.05 -5 Japan 0.00 1-Feb-2016 0.10 -10 Canada 1.25 17-Jan-2018 1.00 25 Australia 1.50 2-Aug-2016 1.75 -25 China 4.35 26-Oct-2015 4.60 -25 10 India 6.00 2-Aug-2017 6.25 -25 7 Sri Lanka 8.75 24-Mar-2017 8.50 25 Malaysia 3.25 25-Jan-2018 3.00 25 1 Indonesia 6.50 16-Jun-2016 6.75 -25 -2 Thailand 1.50 29-Apr-2015 1.75 -25 percent USA 5 3 1 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 -1 Source: Central bank websites GDP Growth Rate UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka Q4-17 Q3-17 Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 4 Q4-15 percent USA Source: Central bank websites Key Macroeconomic Indicators USA UK Euro zone Japan Australia China India Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Thailand 1 Inflation (YoY)1 Feb-18 GDP growth2 Q4-2017 2.2 2.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.9 4.4 4.5 1.4 1.4 3.2 0.4 2.5 1.4 2.7 2.0 2.4 6.8 6.7 3.2 2.8 5.9 5.2 4.0 Current account balance3 Fiscal balance3 as a percent of GDP4 -2.7 -4.5 -4.4 -2.8 3.1 -1.0 3.7 -4.9 -1.8 -1.2 1.3 -4.0 -2.0 -3.5 5.1 0.7 2.8 -2.8 -1.9 -2.3 9.7 -2.3 Reserves5 (billion US$) Feb-18 Nominal Real 44.1 123.5 272.9 1199.4 47.2 3161.5 397.2 6.6 385.9 100.2 121.9 204.1 4.0 0.5 6.3 1.0 5.2 4.4 9.5 11.3 3.6 4.6 10.9 4.4 1.8 0.2 5.0 0.6 5.2 1.5 6.2 5.5 2.2 3.2 7.7 4.0 Lending rates6 2 Values of Inflation of Australia pertains to December, 2017; Annual GDP growth, measured as a percentage change over the same quarter of previous year; 3 4 Latest 12 months; The Economist, 5 6 Economic and Financial indicators, March 24, 2018; IMF (IFS) Reserve position data pertains to February, 2018 except China, India, Sri Lanka and Korea pertain to January 2018; IMF (IFS) lending rates data pertains to February, 2018, Euro Zone and Sri lanka pertains to January, 2018, India pertain to September, 2017, Japan pertains to May, 2017, USA pertains to April, 2017, and UK pertains to May, 2016. World Economic Outlook - Real GDP Growth 2016 (IMF estimates) IMF World Bank OECD World output 3.2 3.7 3.0 3.7 Advanced 1.7 2.3 2.3 - US 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 Euro area 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 Japan 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 UK 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 4.4 4.7 4.3 - CPI Inflation Russia -0.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 China 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 India 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.6 ASEAN-5 4.9 5.3 - - USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka 9 percent 7 5 3 1 -1 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Emerging & Developing 2017 Projections Source: Central bank websites Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and Central Bank Websites. External Sector 10
  13. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 World Commodity Price Indices (2010=100) Percent change since Trends in Commodity Price Indices (2010=100) Feb-18 Jan-18 End June - 17 Energy index 80.5 -5.4 33.2 Non-Energy Index 88.5 1.2 8.5 Food Index 93.5 2.2 2.3 Metal price index 96.9 -0.1 22.3 Crude oil price ($/bbl) * 64.4 -0.2 40.2 Cotton spot (US cents/ pound) * 83.0 5.8 17.3 Palm oil ($/m. ton) 663.0 -2.1 -2.1 Soya bean Oil ($/m. ton) 842.0 -2.5 1.8 Energy Metal Food 110 90 70 50 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 30 Source: World Bank Daily Saudi Arabian Oil Prices and Int. Gold Prices Saudi Arabian Light Gold Spot (RHS) 120 192.2 4.4 1.4 Gold spot ($/Oz) * 1326.6 -0.3 6.8 1400 110 25.8 -2.9 -7.2 Sources: Bloomberg for Crude oil price (Saudi Arabian Light), Cotton Spot and Gold spot. World Bank for all other items. ^The measurement unit differs in Sugar which was reported in (US cents/pound) in IMF dataset whereas, it is expressed in US $/kg in data reported by World Bank. Therefore, a conversion has been used (1 US$ / kilogram = 45.359237 U.S. cents / pound). Data for world commodity prices/indices pertain to February, 2018 except wheat prices which pertains to January, 2018. * Average during the current month upto March 27, 2018. The percentage changes have been calculated by taking average prices of current month with the previous month and end June prices. 1300 90 80 70 1200 60 50 1100 40 30 20 1000 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Sugar (US $/kg)^ US$ per barrel 100 US$ per ounce Wheat ($/m. ton) Source: Bloomberg (Updated till March 27, 2018) Capital Market Indices Daily International Cotton Prices Percent change since Mar-18 Feb-18 Jun-17 90 -1.3 15.6 DJ EURO STOXX 3377.2 -1.4 -4.8 UK (FTSE 100) 7094.2 -2.2 -5.0 Japan (Nikkei 225) 21425.6 -2.6 6.9 China (SSEA) 3417.6 -1.0 3.7 France (CAC 40) 5206.1 -1.0 -1.1 Germany (DAX) 12181.4 -2.2 -4.2 80 75 70 65 60 55 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 24646.0 US cents per pound 85 US (DJIA) Source : Bloomberg (Updated till March 27, 2018) -0.4 10.6 2 5 Yr Bond = $1000 M (Coupon rate = 7.25%): Issued - April 8, 2014: Maturity -April 15, 2019 10 Yr Bond = $1000 M (Coupon rate = 8.25%): Issued - April 8, 2014: Maturity - April 15, 2024 30 Yr Bond = $300 M (Coupon rate = 7.875%): Issued - Mar 24, 2006: Maturity -Mar 23, 2036 27-Mar-18 516.2 Updated till March 27, 2018 27-Jan-18 World all (MSCI) 1 27-Feb-18 18.5 27-Dec-17 0.4 27-Nov-17 1199.4 30-Year (2036) 27-Oct-17 Emerging Markets (MSCI) 27-Sep-17 9.5 27-Jul-17 -0.5 10-Year (2024) 27-Aug-17 2108.4 27-Jun-17 World dev'd (MSCI) 27-Apr-17 7.1 27-May-17 -2.8 27-Mar-17 33343.0 percent India (BSE) Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond 2 5-Year (2019) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: Bloomberg (Updated till March 27, 2018) Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, OECD, The Economist and Central Bank Websites External Sector 11
  14. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Revenues , Expenditures and Fiscal Balances Revenues (billion Rs) FY18 BE1 6,171 4,914 Total revenues Tax revenue Growth (YoY) % 23.8 4,013 1,257 29.9 of which: FBR revenues Non-tax revenues Growth (YoY) % Jul-Dec FY18 FY17 2,385 1,991 2,027 1,741 Revenues (billion Rupees) FY17 4,937 3,969 Non-tax Tax Total revenue as % of GDP (RHS) 6,250 19.0 20% 17.0 5,000 20% 16.4 1,730 358 6.2 1,467 249 8.4 3,361 967 3,750 43.4 -31.8 23.0 1,250 77% 82% 15.0 13.0 29% 26% 2,500 23% 18% 11.0 71% 74% 80% 9.0 80% Total expenditures Current Growth (YoY) % of which: Interest payments Defence Development Expenditure & net lending Growth (YoY) % Unidentified Expenditure2 6.5 647 336 10.7 1,348 888 Development 8,400 2,263 616 491 1,681 6,000 15.7 57 FY18 B.E Expenditures (billion Rupees) 13.5 751 393 25.4 20 FY17 FY17 6,801 5,198 3.7 1,363 920 34.6 - FY16 7.0 FY15 Jul-Dec FY18 FY17 3,181 2,790 2,545 2,242 FY13 FY18 BE1 7,651 5,388 FY14 0 Expenditures (billion Rs) 27.9 -78 Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS) 25 7,200 30% 22 24% 4,800 24% 21% 20% 24% 19 3,600 16 2,400 13 1,200 80% 76% 76% 76% 79% 70% 10 FY18 B.E FY17 0 -1,864 -261 -515 FY16 FY17 -799 -251 -152 FY17 FY14 Fiscal balance3 Revenue balance4 Primary balance5 Jul-Dec FY18 -796 -161 -45 FY13 FY18 1 BE -1,480 783 -117 FY15 Overall Balance (billion Rs) As percent of GDP 6 -4.1 2.2 -0.3 Fiscal balance Revenue balance Primary balance -2.2 -0.4 -0.1 -2.5 -0.8 -0.5 -5.8 -0.8 -1.6 Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees) Financing of Fiscal Deficit (billion Rs) FY18 BE1 1,480 Financing Jul-Dec FY18 FY17 796 799 FY17 Primary 850 Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS) 0.0 425 1,864 -1.5 0 -3.0 511 384 241 541 968 412 558 1,322 Non-bank 528 80 151 277 Banking system: of which 390 332 407 1,046 0 -3 893 888 -1,700 -7.5 -2,125 -9.0 -4.5 -850 Direct Sales Customs Q1 232 261 101 31 625 100% Q2 355 316 117 54 842 80% Q3 306 320 125 42 793 60% Q4 451 426 153 71 1,101 40% 1,343 1,323 496 199 3,361 287 314 128 36 765 FBR Tax Collection8 (billion Rs) 376 154 48 965 691 283 83 1,730 26% 79% 58% 56% 14% 15% 61% 40% 36% 25% 20% 37% 21% 27% 35% 29% 12% 0% FY18 B.E 387 674 3% 1% 23% FY17 Q2 FY18P Domestic banking system External FY16 Q1 Privatization proceeds Domestic non-bank FY13 FY17 Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit FED9 Total taxes FY15 Privatization proceeds FY18 B.E - FY17 158 - FY16 -486 - FY15 334 50 FY13 390 Scheduled banks -6.0 -1,275 FY14 SBP -425 FY14 1. External 7 2. Domestic : of which 1 Budget Estimates; Estimated from Budget in Brief 2017-18, MoF; 2 In Fiscal Accounts, these expenditures are named as 'Statistical Discrepancy'; 3 Fiscal balance = total revenue - total expenditure; 4 Revenue balance = total revenue - current expenditure; 5 Primary balance = total revenue - total expenditure + interest payment; 6 GDP(mp) on new basis (2005-2006) has been used to calculate deficit to GDP ratios; 7 It includes the amount of Privatization Proceeds; 8 as reported in fiscal accounts; 9 Federal excise duty; P Provisional Fiscal Accounts and Debt 12
  15. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Government Domestic Debt Debt by Owner - end period stocks (billion Rs) Stock of Debt (by Owner) 1,160 911 3200 163 251 0 National saving schemes (NSS) 3,519 3,424 96 138 Others 1,579 1,512 67 114 5 5 0 0 15,797 14,849 947 890 -490 -670 4,392 -541 -737 747 51 390 0 0 7,944 6,551 1,393 1,491 0 0 0 -213 4,315 Saving schemes 4.Foreign currency instruments Total(1+2+3+4) Government domestic liabilities6 12800 46% 48% 50% 50% 19% 19% 19% 19% 18% 18% 37% 45% 44% 45% 44% 49% 49% 44% 36% 37% 36% 37% 33% 33% 6400 3200 0 67 Source: SBP Interest Payments by Type of Debt Permanent 4,082 233 792 1225 3,629 2,469 1,160 911 1050 2,809 2,765 44 69 875 700 2,674 2,631 43 71 5 5 0 0 15,797 14,849 947 890 444 457 -13 -96 1 Includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs and special USD bonds held by the residents. 2 Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk 3 Years. 3 Includes Rs. 0.013 billion of Treasury Bills on Tap. 20% 9600 billion Rs MRTBs-replenishment 47% 14% 17% 56% 46% 525 Includes Outright Sale of MRTBs, if any. 5 Includes funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds. This reflects provincial governments’ borrowings from banks for commodity operations. 30% 175 FY17 Percent change FY18 over FY17 440 577 -18.3 200 351 60.6 197 152 278 29.6 878 792 1206 10.8 Permanent7 360 Floating 321 Unfunded Total Jun-13 42.5 22% 53% 54% 39% 46% 37% 30% 36% 26% 24% 24% 23% FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Jun-16 Jun-17 Stock of Domestic Debt (as percent of GDP) 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 Jun-12 Indicators of Domestic Debt Sustainability Debt stock as percent of GDP8 21% 0 Debt Servicing (billion Rs) FY17 Unfunded 350 FY12 4 FY18P Floating Source: SBP 6 Jul-Jan Dec-17 5,528 3,851 799 3.Unfunded debt5: of which 51% Sep-17 5,039 390 4 17% Jun-17 Jun-17P Prize bonds MTBs 19% Stock of Debt (by Type) Unfunded Floating Permanent billion Rs Change during Jul-Jan FY18 FY17 Others2 Bai Muajjal 20% 16000 Jan-18P 3 51% 20% Source: SBP, CDNS Debt by Type - end period stocks (billion Rs) 2. Floating debt 17% 15% Dec-17 2,472 4,935 PIBs 23% 18% Jun-16 3,631 1.Permanent debt 23% 23% 6400 5,098 Total(1+2+3) 10% 23% Sep-17 -273 24% 10% Jun-17 -375 23% 24% 9600 10% Mar-17 7,438 3.Foreign currency instruments1 FY13 11% Mar-17 7,062 10% 12800 10% Dec-16 638 SBP Others Dec-16 784 10% Sep-16 FY17 9,909 2.Non-bank NSS Sep-16 FY18 10,693 Commercial banks SBP 16000 Jun-16 1.Bank Jun-17 Change during Jul-Jan P billion Rs Jan-18 P Scheduled banks Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: SBP, MoF Jun-14 43.3 Jun-15 44.4 Jun-16 46.8 Jun-17 Debt Servicing (as percent of) Total revenue 46.6 Total expenditure GDP (RHS) 36 Debt servicing as percent of GDP FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 3 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.8 3.8 30.4 28.7 29.9 24.9 24.4 Tax revenue 41.3 40.7 39.0 30.3 30.4 9 Total expenditure 18.8 20.7 21.8 19.1 17.7 0 Current expenditure 24.8 26.0 26.6 23.6 23.2 P Includes prize bonds; : Provisional 4 27 Total revenue 7 5 18 2 1 0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Source: SBP, MoF Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF). Fiscal Accounts and Debt 13
  16. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 External Debt 1 Debt & Liabilities - end period stocks (million US$) Debt Servicing (million US$) P Items Dec-17 1. Public debt (a+b+c) a) Government debt i)Long term (>1 year) Paris club Multilateral Change Jun-17 during JulDec-FY18 70,511 66,103 4,408 60,603 56,430 4,173 59,445 11,893 55,547 11,973 3,897 -81 Jul-DecFY18P Items 1. Public debt (a+b+c) a) Government debt3 Principal Interest 2,226 5,075 2,154 4,903 1,477 678 3,734 1,169 61 86 27,930 27,605 325 Other bilateral 6,473 5,823 650 Principal 0 0 Euro/Sukuk global bonds 7,300 4,800 2,500 Interest 61 86 11 87 Military debt Commercial loans/credits Local currency Securities (PIBs) Saudi fund for development (SFD) b) To IMF FY17 0 0 0 5,329 4,826 503 c) Foreign exchange liabilities Principal 0 0 0 0 0 Interest 11 87 50 90 20 20 0 500 500 0 Principal 34 72 0 0 0 15 18 1,158 903 882 832 276 72 Interest 3. PSEs non-guaranteed debt3 119 110 233 217 b) From IMF i) Federal government 6,256 0 6,109 0 147 0 9 17 0 0 ii) Central bank c) Foreign exchange liabilities (FEL)2 6,256 6,109 147 Principal 0 0 3,652 3,564 87 Interest 0 0 2,943 2,706 237 1,396 1,214 182 SAFE China deposits NBP/BOC deposits ii) Short term (<1 year) Of which: Multilateral 2.Public sector enterprises(PSEs) a) Guaranteed debt b) Non-guaranteed debt 3.Scheduled banks a)Borrowing i) Long term (>1 year) ii) Short term (<1 year) b)Non-resident deposits (LCY & FCY) 4. Private sector a)Guaranteed debt b)Non-guaranteed debt i)Loans ii)Private non-guaranteed bonds 2. PSEs guaranteed debt Principal Interest 4. Scheduled banks' borrowing3 5. Private guaranteed debt 6. Private non-guaranteed debt3 0 0 273 569 1,547 1,493 55 Principal 131 417 4,703 4,519 184 Interest 141 153 3,462 25 3,303 19 159 5 7. Private non-guaranteed bonds Principal 0 0 0 0 3,437 3,284 153 0 0 1,242 1,216 25 Interest Total Long term external debt servicing (1+2+3+4+5+6+7) 7,236 6,505 731 Principal 2,666 5,968 1,752 4,439 914 1,529 0 0 0 7,236 6,505 731 Interest Memorandum Items 6,233 5,512 721 Short term debt servicing-principal4 (excluding item No.3 below) 885 2,083 12 12 0 1. Government debt 606 1,393 iii)Trade credit and others liabilities 5.Debt liabilities to direct investors-intercompany debt Total external debt (excl. FEL) 991 981 10 2. PSEs non-guaranteed debt 3,498 85,240 3,258 79,528 239 5,712 3. Scheduled banks' borrowing Total external debt & liabilities (1+2+3+4+5) 88,891 83,092 5,799 4. Private non-guaranteed debt 33 43 48,017 82,680 165 1,692 247 648 FY16 FY17P Net flows 5 Indicators of External Debt Sustainability External debt servicing6 as percent of End period debt stock as percent of Jun-12 GDP Reserves Exports Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 P Jun-17 FY12 FY14 FY15 30.9 27.0 25.6 24.2 26.6 27.4 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.7 1.6 2.0 426.8 264.9 550.8 245.5 459.1 260.3 348.3 270.5 319.4 336.5 386.5 378.8 27.9 17.3 53.9 24.0 46.0 26.1 24.8 19.3 18.8 19.8 27.8 27.2 External Debt Servicing (billion US$)* Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$) Debt PSEs debt** Foreign exchange liabilities 78 65 52 39 26 13 FY12 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP Jun-15 Jun-16 Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 91 Jun-12 FY13 Jun-17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 *Only Long term debt servicing included. **PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt. Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP R: Revised; P: Provisional ; 1 External debt data format has been changed, as SBP enhances coverage & quality of external debt statistics by adopting Special Data Dissemination Standard, for more details visit http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Revision-EDS.pdf.2 Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL; 3 Only long term debt servicing included. 4 As per the guidelines available in IMF's External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2003, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term repayment of principle has been reported as Memorandum Items; 5 Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (-) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period. 6 Only long term debt servicing included from FY11 and onwards. Sources: Economic Affairs Division and SBP(S&DWH) Fiscal Accounts and Debt 14
  17. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Total Debt Total Debt Stock (billion Rs) Dec-17P Jun-17 Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 Change during Jul-Dec FY18 I. Government domestic debt 15,437 14,849 13,626 12,193 10,907 588 57.6 II. Government external debt 6,693 5,919 5,418 4,770 4,786 774 25.0 III. Debt from IMF 691 641 633 418 298 50 2.6 IV. External liabilities1 403 374 377 378 324 29 1.5 1,319 1,156 709 539 500 162 4.9 VI. PSEs external debt 325 284 294 253 204 41 1.2 VII. PSEs domestic debt 889 823 568 459 366 66 3.3 VIII. Commodity operations2 672 687 637 564 492 -15 2.5 IX. Intercompany External Debt from Direct Investor abroad 386 342 316 277 336 45 1.4 Total debt & liabilities (I to IX) 26,815 25,074 22,577 19,849 18,214 1,741 100.0 Gross Public Debt (I to III) 22,821 21,409 19,677 17,380 15,991 1,412 85.1 Total Debt of the Government - FRDLA Definition3 20,879 19,635 17,823 15,986 14,624 1,244 77.9 Total external debt & liabilities (II to VI &+ IX) 9,817 8,715 7,747 6,634 6,449 1,101 36.6 Commodity operations & PSEs debt (VI to VIII) 1,886 1,793 1,499 1,276 1,062 93 7.0 Jul-DecFY18P FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 Total Debt Servicing(A+B) 992 1875 1611 1702 1768 Share in JulDec FY18 (percent) 100.0 A. Total interest payment on debt and liabilities (I+II) 806 1410 1290 1347 1183 81.3 75.2 784 1367 1240 1286 1134 79.1 72.9 a. Domestic debt 680 1206 1108 1176 1043 68.6 64.3 b. External debt 104 161 132 110 91 10.5 8.6 22 43 51 61 49 2.2 2.3 a. Domestic liabilities 21 34 42 52 47 2.1 1.8 b. External liabilities1 1 9 9 9 3 0.1 0.5 186 465 321 355 585 18.7 24.8 Dec-17P Jun-17 Jun-16 Jun-15 Jun-14 74.7 78.7 77.6 72.3 72.4 Gross Public Debt 63.5 67.2 67.6 63.3 63.5 Total Debt of the Government - FRDLA Definition 58.1 61.6 61.2 58.3 58.1 Total external debt and liabilities 27.3 27.4 26.6 24.2 25.6 Government domestic debt 43.0 46.6 46.8 44.4 43.3 5.3 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.2 FY17P FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 5.9 5.5 6.2 7.0 6.9 Total revenue 38.0 36.2 43.3 48.6 51.6 Tax revenue 47.2 44.0 56.4 68.9 69.9 Total expenditure 27.6 27.8 31.6 35.2 31.9 Current expenditure 36.1 34.3 38.5 44.1 42.0 V. Private sector external debt Share in DecFY18(percent) Total Debt Servicing (billion Rs) I. Interest payment on debt (a+b) II. Interest payment on liabilities (a+b) B. Principal repayment of external debt and liabilities 4 Share in FY17 (percent) 100.0 Debt stock (as percent of GDP) Total debt and liabilities Commodity Operation and PSEs Debt Debt Servicing (as percent of) GDP Debt Stock (billion Rs) Total external debt & liabilities Total debt & liabilities 27500 25000 22500 20000 17500 15000 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Debt Stock (as percent of GDP) Government domestic debt Gross public debt Total external debt & liabilities Total debt & liabilities Government domestic debt Gross public debt 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Note: R: Revised; P: Provisional;1 External liabilities include Central bank deposits, SWAPS, Allocation of SDR and Non resident LCY deposits with central bank; 2 Includes borrowings from banks by provincial governments and PSEs for commodity operations; 3 As per Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, 2005 (FRDLA) amended in June 2017, "Total Debt of the Government" means the debt of the government (including the Federal Government and the Provincial Governments) serviced out of the consolidated fund and debts owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) less accumulated deposits of the Federal and Provincial Governments with the banking system.; 4This is excluding short term debt repayment. Source: CDNS, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs Division and SBP Fiscal Accounts and Debt 15
  18. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Monetary and Credit Aggregates Monetary Assets of the Banking System (billion Rs) End June 2017 stocksR Cumulative flows since end-June Monetary Assets (M2) - Cumulative Flows since end June Latest week A year ago 16-Mar-18 17-Mar-17 FY17 FY17 Flows 1,500 1,000 602.0 -423.8 -236.9 -405.5 NDA 13,978.8 776.3 825.3 2,161.6 8,955.6 505.3 602.6 1,136.1 0 8,282.1 554.4 737.2 1,087.3 -500 686.5 -53.6 -137.2 49.9 6,011.3 512.7 482.1 998.7 5,197.5 369.8 333.7 747.9 798.6 141.9 145.1 254.7 -988.0 -241.7 -259.5 26.8 14,580.9 352.6 588.4 1,756.0 3,911.3 235.3 232.1 577.5 10,646.9 117.3 356.2 1,174.6 9,381.3 -73.8 392.8 1,184.3 Time deposits with banks 610.3 104.9 -46.9 -77.8 RFCDs with banks 655.3 86.2 10.3 68.1 14,580.9 352.6 588.4 1,756.0 Non-government borrowings: of which Private sector PSEs Other items (net) M2 Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System Currency in circulation Total deposits with banks Demand deposits with banks M2 (billion Rs) Monetary Assets of the Banking System (percent growth) YoY (16-Mar-18) 17-Mar-17 -70.4 -23.5 -40.2 NDA 16.7 5.6 7.0 18.3 12.3 5.6 7.7 14.5 Budgetary borrowing 11.4 6.7 10.2 15.1 Commodity operations 26.7 -7.8 -21.6 7.8 18.7 8.5 9.6 19.9 16.4 7.1 7.5 16.8 PSEs 36.5 17.8 26.7 46.8 3.5 -24.5 -25.6 2.6 11.3 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Net Domestic Assets(NDA) - Cumulative Flows since end June 2.4 4.6 1500 1000 500 0 -500 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Private Sector Credit - Cumulative Flows since end June FY17 FY18 800 13.7 600 Memorandum Items A year ago FY17 billion Rs 400 Latest week 200 16-Mar-18 17-Mar-17 2.94 3.07 3.00 -200 Currency to deposit ratio (percent) 38.52 36.28 36.74 -400 M2 to GDP ratio (percent) 41.58 42.10 45.76 Private sector credit to GDP ratio (percent) 15.50 15.01 16.31 Money multiplier FY18 2500 2000 Private sector M2 FY18 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 FY17 16-Mar-18 Other items (Net) FY17 FY17 -76.9 Non-government sector borrowings Net Foreign Assets - Cumulative Flows since end June Since end June NFA Government borrowings 500 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks billion Rs Commodity operations billion Rs Net budgetary borrowing billion Rs NFA Net government borrowings: of which FY18 2,000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks R ; Revised (All weekly numbers are provisional); Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP Monetary Sector 16
  19. Monetary Policy Information Compendium Monetary Assets of SBP (billion Rs) Reserve Money - Cumulative Flows since end June Cumulative flows since end-June Latest week A year ago 16-Mar-18 FY17 Flows 17-Mar-17 828.9 -435.6 -98.0 -204.1 4,039.0 645.3 498.1 1,098.4 Budgetary borrowing 2,350.1 1,040.7 968.8 907.9 Other items (net) 1,210.8 -459.2 -569.4 102.9 1,533.4 -466.7 -516.4 -0.1 4,868.0 209.7 400.0 Monetary Liabilities of SBP Cumulative flows since end-June Latest week FY17 Flows A year ago 16-Mar-18 17-Mar-17 3,911.3 235.3 232.1 577.5 Cash in tills 264.6 -68.4 -54.0 35.3 Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) 669.3 42.8 221.9 277.6 22.7 YoY (16-Mar-18) -0.1 0.1 3.9 NFA of the SBP -57.9 -52.6 -9.5 -19.8 NDA of the SBP: of which 36.2 16.0 16.9 37.4 40.6 44.3 67.2 62.9 16.1 4.3 10.1 22.5 Other deposits with SBP Budgetary borrowing Reserve money End June 2017 stocks (billion Rs) Cumulative flows since end-June Latest week A year ago 17-Mar-17 8,282.1 554.4 737.2 1,087.3 Federal government 9,072.0 683.9 930.0 1,071.7 2,440.6 1,141.4 1,070.1 710.3 SBP's holdings of MRTBs 2,468.9 1,078.3 932.9 451.3 From scheduled banks (SBs) 6,631.4 -457.5 -140.1 361.4 -789.9 -129.5 -192.8 15.6 -90.5 -100.7 -101.3 197.6 -699.4 -28.8 -91.5 -182.0 From SBP 1 From scheduled banks Memorandum Items Budgetary borrowing on cash basis Weeks Currency in Circulation - Cumulative Flows since end June FY17 8,163.0 603.9 737.6 1,046.0 SBP 2,299.6 1,044.0 964.4 887.9 Scheduled banks 5,863.4 -440.1 -226.8 158.1 FY18 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Budgetary Borrowings - Cumulative Flows since end June FY17 16-Mar-18 FY18 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 FY17 Flows Budgetary borrowing Provincial governments FY17 (percent growth) Details on Government Borrowing for Budgetary Support From SBP Banking System Deposits -Cumulative Flows since end June billion Rs End June 2017 stocks Currency in circulation 894.3 (billion Rs) billion Rs Reserve money billion Rs Net impact of OMOs/discounting FY18 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks FY18 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Weeks Cumulative Budgetary Borrowings during FY18 SBs billion Rs NDA: of which FY17 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 billion Rs End June 2017 stocks NFA March 2018 SBP Total budgetary borrowing 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Weeks 1 Current overdraft ceilings for provinces are: Rs37.2 billion for Punjab; Rs15 billion for Sindh; Rs10.1 billion for KPK; Rs7.1 billion for Baluchistan, Rs4.5 billion for AJK. Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP Monetary Sector 17
  20. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Private Sector Credit Credit to Private Sector Cumulative flows (billion Rs) Loans to Private Sector Businesses (Monthly Flows) 34.3 11.3 20.5 74.9 4.9 11.8 15.6 Electricity, gas and water Wearing apparel, readymade gar. 365.3 58.4 43.3 60.1 Construction 138.6 8.2 11.6 41.0 Commerce and trade 308.2 33.2 15.8 42.7 Transport, storage and comm. 211.0 13.0 -4.7 29.2 Services: of which 220.4 19.0 9.8 28.9 Real estate/renting & business acu. 2. Personal: of which Consumer financing 132.5 16.3 9.1 18.3 504.5 62.7 40.7 71.0 389.5 47.8 42.0 70.5 3. Investment in securities and shares 264.6 -12.3 24.6 15.9 4. Others2: of which 466.2 -41.2 -28.6 36.1 138.9 -8.3 3.0 10.0 Non-bank finance companies 1 From Weekly Monetary Survey's month end position. 2 This also includes credit to some Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWHD), SBP. 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 May Jun Jun -10.2 34.7 Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows) FY16 FY17 FY18 Jun -47.6 89.7 May 304.7 Jun Chemicals & products Non-metallic mineral products FY18 May 151.3 FY17 May 82.8 83.1 Oct 84.8 29.1 Oct 123.5 Sep 695.1 627.6 Sep Textiles Food producus & beverages Jul 12.4 384.3 Jul 1.4 207.2 Aug 9.2 206.3 billion Rs 297.5 2,299.6 Aug FY16 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 billion Rs Manufacturing: of which Apr Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows) Credit to NBFIs (Monthly Flows) FY16 FY17 FY18 16 12 8 billion Rs Agriculture Mar 259.0 Apr 159.7 Mar 147.1 Apr 1,494.7 Fixed investment By Sectors: of which Mar 45.7 Apr 39.7 5.5 Mar 44.7 -6.4 Jan 51.7 Feb 341.9 253.7 Feb Export finance Import finance Feb 365.9 Dec 141.2 Jan 197.6 Working capital: of which Jan 2,467.5 By type Dec 624.9 Dec 747.9 301.0 Oct 337.6 344.8 FY18 Nov 353.9 3,962.2 Nov 5,197.5 1. Loans to private sector businesses FY17 Nov Total credit to private sector 1 FY16 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Sep FY17 Jul Jul-Feb FY17 Aug Jul-Feb FY18 billion Rs End June 2017 stocks 4 0 -4 -8 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Monetary Sector Aug -12 18
  21. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Key Indicators of Monetary Secuor As percent of GDP YoY growth (RHS) Reserve Money Money Supply (M2) 50.0 18.0 44.0 16.0 14.0 30.0 25.0 13.0 50.0 38.0 45.0 20.0 14.0 12.0 40.0 35.0 32.0 15.0 12.0 30.0 25.0 26.0 20.0 10.0 11.0 10.0 15.0 10.0 20.0 FY13 5.0 as % 0.0 of GDP YoY Growth FY07 39.6 15.9 FY08 FY14 FY15 FY16 39.6 FY09 12.5 41.1 FY10 13.2 44.1 FY11 13.7 FY17 8.0 10.0 as % of GDP YoY Growth 45.8 13.7 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 11.3 15.8 11.4 12.9 11.4 9.9 13.7 26.5 15.3 22.5 Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System 5.0 Private Sector Credit 29.0 40.0 28.0 35.0 27.0 30.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 20.0 20.0 16.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 25.0 20.0 12.0 24.0 15.0 8.0 4.0 23.0 10.0 22.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 21.0 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 25.5 33.8 23.9 5.7 25.4 15.5 26.9 12.4 28.1 14.5 0.0 0.0 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 15.0 -0.6 15.0 12.6 14.6 5.9 15.3 11.2 16.3 16.8 Currency in Circulation 13.0 32.0 12.0 28.0 11.0 Total Deposits 35.0 19.0 16.0 30.0 24.0 10.0 20.0 13.0 25.0 9.0 10.0 16.0 8.0 20.0 6.0 7.0 12.0 7.0 as % of GDP YoY Growth -4.0 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 8.7 15.8 8.7 12.4 9.3 17.3 11.5 30.5 12.3 17.3 8.0 15.0 as % of GDP YoY Growth FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 30.9 15.9 30.9 12.6 31.8 12.0 32.5 8.7 33.4 12.4 4.0 YoY growth of end June Stocks Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. Monetary Sector 19
  22. Monetary Sector Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 0 .0 Oct-16 15.0 Aug-16 30.0 Jun-16 45.0 Apr-16 60.0 Feb-16 75.0 Dec-15 90.0 Feb-16 Apr-16 June-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 June-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-16 June-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 June-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 6.0 Feb-16 8.0 Dec-15 10.0 Dec-15 12.0 Oct-15 14.0 Aug-15 16.0 Oct-15 18.0 Aug-15 Total Deposits June-15 39.0 37.5 36.0 34.5 33.0 31.5 30.0 28.5 27.0 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 June-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 June-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 June-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 Nov-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 YoY Growth Oct-15 NDA to NFA Ratio Jun-15 35.0 31.0 27.0 23.0 19.0 15.0 11.0 7.0 3.0 Aug-15 Currency in Circulation June-15 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 Apr-15 Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System Apr-15 8.0 Feb-15 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 June-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 June-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 10.0 Apr-15 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 June-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 June-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 19 17 15 13 11 Feb-15 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 June-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 June-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 Money Supply Feb-15 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 June-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 June-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Dec-15 Oct-15 June-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 12.0 Aug-15 June-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 14.0 June-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 16.0 June-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Trends in Monetary Aggregates 12 MMA Reserve Money 28.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 Credit to Private Sector 24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 Trend in Currency to Deposit Ratio and Money Multiplier Currency to deposit ratio (%) Money multiplier (RHS) 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 Month end stocks data has been used. YoY growth shows growth over same month last year. Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP. 20
  23. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Money Market Policy Instruments (percent) 4.25 23-May-16 25 5.0 1-Nov-08 6.00 18-Oct-08 -100 3.0 12-Oct-12 4.0 1-Nov-08 -100 0.0 4-Aug-07 3.0 22-Jul-06 -300 19.0 24-May-08 18.0 22-Jul-06 100 14.0 17-Nov-16 19.0 3-Jun-11 -500 0.0 18-Oct-08 19.0 24-May-08 -1900 0.0 18-Oct-08 9.0 24-May-08 -900 SLR on DL and TL < 1 year Islamic banks SLR on TL > 1 year Islamic banks Basis points percent DL: Demand Liabilities; TL: Time Liabilities Weighted Average O/N Money Market Repo Rate During MP Period (percent) Volatility in Overnight Money Market Repo Rate during MP period 26-Nov-17 28-Jan-18 27-Mar-18 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 WA O/N repo rate2 5.80 5.79 5.79 5.81 5.98 Standard deviation 0.20 0.16 0.20 0.22 0.12 CoV3 0.034 0.028 0.035 0.038 0.020 up to March 27, 2018 YTD: Year to date 2 Weekly Weighted Average O/N Repo Rate 3 CoV (Coefficient of Variation) is a ratio and is unit free. * up to March 27, 2018 Bi-weekly Cash Reserves Requirement (CRR)4 (billion Rs) Change since Maintenance period ended as on Last MPS 24.5 5.25 25-Jan-185 21.0 5.20 17.5 5.15 14.0 5.10 10.5 5.05 7.0 5.00 3.5 4.95 0.0 4.90 8-Feb-18 Cash required 511.6 515.1 -3.5 -1.2 Cash maintained 518.7 522.2 -3.5 -1.6 7.1 7.2 0.0 -0.4 Excess cash reserves (per day) 8-Feb-18 Amount billion Rs 8-Mar-17 Cash Reserves Requirement 4 5 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Bi-weekly CRR is the proportion of local currency time and demand liabilities (TDL) that scheduled banks are required to maintain with SBP in the form of cash on average during the reserve maintenance period. as % of TDL (RHS) in percent * 27-Mar-18 1-Oct-17 5.75 27-Nov-17 23-Jul-17 Policy rate 23-Jan-18 Period ended on 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.000 26-Nov-17 29-Jan-18 1-Oct-17 27-Nov-17 23-Jul-17 2-Oct-17 21-May-17 24-Jul-17 26-Mar-17 22-May-17 coefficient of variation Period started on 29-Jan-17 1 Mar-17 CRR on TL > 1 year Mar-18 29-Jan-18 SBP repo rate SBP Target rate (Policy) Jan-18 4.50 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Feb-18 SBP repo rate Bi-weekly average CRR on DL and TL < 1 year Daily minimum CRR on DL and TL < 1 year 25 Dec-17 6.25 Oct-17 6.50 Policy and Overnight Money Market Repo Rates SBP reverse repo rate Weekly WA overnight repo rate Nov-17 SBP reverse repo rate 23-May-16 Sep-17 25 29-Jan-18 Aug-17 SBP Target rate (Policy) Jul-17 Change1 23-May-16 Aug-17 w.e.f 5.75 Jun-17 Previous 29-Jan-18 Apr-17 w.e.f 6.00 May-17 Current As on Thursday preceding the last monetary policy decision. Overall Reserve Requirement (billion Rs) 26-Jan-18 26-Jan-18 4000 3500 Cash 778.0 825.0 -47.1 Cash in tills 234.5 235.9 -1.4 Balance with SBP 483.0 524.0 -41.0 Balance with NBP Others7 Excess liquid assets 8 60.4 65.1 -4.7 4652.5 4666.5 -14.0 24.7 24.7 0.0 3068.1 3112.6 -44.5 Source: Off-site Supervision and Enforcement Department, SBP Financial Markets 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Feb-18 -61.1 Jan-18 5516.2 Dec-17 5455.2 Nov-17 Maintained6 2500 Oct-17 -13.1 Sep-17 1888.6 Aug-17 1875.5 Jul-17 for SLR 3000 Jun-17 -3.5 Apr-17 -16.6 515.1 May-17 2403.6 511.6 Feb-17 2387.1 for CRR Securities Banks' Holding of Excess Liquid Assets 23-Feb-18 billion Rs Required reserves Change since Last MPS Mar-17 Maintenance period started as on *up to March 27, 2018 6 Data corresponds to the balances as on that date 7 Includes Section 13(3) deposits and share capital of MFBs. 8 Includes excess securities + cash and other assets maintained. 21
  24. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Use of SBP 's Standing Facilities SBP Repo and Reverse Repo Facility SBP repo 16 71.4 3 Q3 Q4 506.4 747.4 12 9 110.8 259.0 6 7 FY17 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 935.7 504.5 65.6 160.8 204.9 35 10 6 8 11 365.4 11.9 43.4 56.7 253.5 23 2 3 7 11 FY181 391.5 19 68.2 6 Q1 85.8 7 3.5 1 Q2 Q31 263.3 42.4 9 3 52.0 12.7 3 2 1 Mar-18 578.8 Jan-18 5 Q2 Feb-18 89.2 Dec-17 15 Oct-17 922.2 Nov-17 21 Q1 Sep-17 No. 530.3 Jul-17 billion Rs 52 Reverse repo Aug-17 No. 2,754.8 Jun-17 billion Rs FY16 Repo 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-17 Days May-17 Amount Mar-17 Days billion Rs SBP reverse repo Amount * up to March 27, 2018 Updated up to March 27, 2018 Outstanding Open Market Operations* 1,800 1,500 1,200 1,268.9 886.3 Q1 1,082.9 623.8 600 Q2 1,287.6 863.9 300 Q3 1,323.8 1,001.1 0 900 1,267.2 1,505.0 6.0 FY183 1,385.5 393.2 5.9 Q1 1,440.9 1,424.3 Q2 Q33 1,530.5 1,171.1 1,627.0 393.2 OMO Mop-up and Injection Rates*# Mop-up rate 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 *Note: (+) amount means net injection Net Sale 4 Updated up to March 27, 2018 346.5 70.0 90.0 186.5 208.0 208.0 - End-period Outstanding 186.5 70.0 90.0 186.5 208.0 208.0 - Feb-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Nov-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Open Market Operations for GoP Ijara Sukuk - Outright5 (billion rupees) Bai-Muajjal Ready Sales Purchases FY15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY17 Q4 179.9 5 6 179.9 - 90.4 89.5 90.4 89.5 43.0 21.2 43.0 21.2 - - - - 24.6 24.6 FY18 Q36 Financial Markets Aug-17 * black dots represent outright mop-up rates # up to March 27, 2018 Outright Open Market Operations (billion rupees) FY15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY17 FY184 Q1 Q2 Q34 Jul-17 Updated up to March 27, 2018 Jun-17 5.4 (-) amount means net mop-up Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP Injection rate 6.2 May-17 3 * updated up to March 27, 2018 Mar-17 Excluding outright OMO transactions and corridor activity Feb-18 Q4 Mar-18 1,100.00 Jan-18 961.1 Dec-17 Q3 Nov-17 800.0 Oct-17 861.3 Sep-17 Q2 Aug-17 1,147.3 Jul-17 1,094.0 Jun-17 Q1 May-17 886.3 1,505.0 2 (-) net mop-ups Mar-17 1,383.3 1,045.8 percent Q4 FY17 (+) net injections 2,100 Apr-17 End-period Outstanding OMOs Apr-17 FY16 2,400 billion Rs Outstanding Open Market Operations2 (billion rupees) Average Outstanding OMOs As per DMMD Circular No. 17 of 2014 dated October 15, 2014. Updated up to March 27, 2018 22
  25. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Pak Rupee Revaluation (PKRV) Rates1 (%) Yield Curve 27-Mar-18 26-Jan-18 12.0 Last MPS 11.0 27-Mar-18 27-Feb-18 27-Feb-18 26-Jan-18 1-week 6.01 6.05 -4 27 2-week 6.05 6.08 -3 26 1-month 6.10 6.10 0 25 3-month 6.36 6.22 14 38 6-month 6.56 6.26 30 55 9-month 6.64 6.28 36 62 6.0 12-month 6.78 6.31 47 74 5.0 2-year 7.35 7.26 9 60 3-year 7.96 7.80 16 65 5-year 8.55 8.32 23 65 7-year 8.68 8.44 24 53 10-year 8.87 8.62 25 47 20-year 11.12 11.03 9 37 30-year 11.63 11.55 8 32 percent 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 7D 15D 1M 2M 3M 4M 6M 9M 12M 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y Tenors Change (in basis points) since Current 1 It is secondary market yield-to-maturity used by banks to revalue their holding of securities (i.e. mark to market). Tenor-wise KIBOR (%) Daily Movement in KIBOR 3-M 6.50 2 23 3-month 6.46 6.38 8 29 6-month 6.56 6.46 10 36 9-month 6.86 6.72 14 37 12-month 6.91 6.77 14 41 2-year 7.59 7.34 25 83 3-year 8.01 7.70 31 95 Mar-18 6.52 Jan-18 23 1-month Feb-18 1 Dec-17 6.47 Oct-17 6.48 Policy Rate Nov-17 23 2-week Sep-17 26-Jan-18 Jul-17 0 12-M Aug-17 27-Feb-18 Jun-17 6.43 May-17 27-Feb-18 6.43 Mar-17 27-Mar-18 1-week 6-M 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 Apr-17 Last MPS percent Tenors Change (in basis points) since Current * up to March 27, 2018 KIBOR and PKRV Spread (basis points) KIBOR and PKRV Spread Current Spread (RHS) Last MPS 27-Feb-18 27-Feb-18 26-Jan-18 1-week 42 38 4 -4 2-week 43 39 4 -3 1-month 42 40 2 -2 3-month 10 16 -6 -9 percent 27-Mar-18 6-M KIBOR 6-M PKRV 7.00 40 6.80 35 6.60 30 6.40 25 6.20 20 6.00 15 5.80 10 5.60 5 24 8 16 23 3-year 5 -10 15 30 Feb-18 2-year Mar-18 -33 Jan-18 -33 Dec-17 46 Nov-17 13 Oct-17 -5 12-month Sep-17 0 5.20 Aug-17 5.40 -25 Jul-17 -19 -22 Jun-17 -20 44 May-17 20 22 Apr-17 0 9-month Mar-17 6-month bps Change since Tenors * up to March 27, 2018 Sources: SBP and Financial Market Association of Pakistan Financial Markets 23
  26. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Weighted average Lending and Deposit Rates (percent per annum) Incremental1 Outstanding Spread (bps) Banks' WALR and WADR (Incremental) WADR Feb-17 6.95 3.21 375 7.99 3.02 496 9.0 6.0 Mar-17 6.93 3.53 340 7.94 2.99 494 8.0 Apr-17 6.90 3.27 363 7.85 2.98 487 5.0 May-17 6.93 3.06 388 7.87 2.89 498 Jun-17 7.07 3.43 364 7.86 2.84 502 Jul-17 7.03 3.33 370 7.88 2.91 496 Aug-17 6.86 3.12 375 7.91 2.93 497 4.0 Sep-17 6.92 3.57 335 7.83 2.93 490 3.0 1.0 Oct-17 7.01 3.33 368 7.82 2.91 490 Nov-17 7.07 3.45 362 7.81 2.91 490 2.0 0.0 Dec-17 7.04 3.51 353 7.74 2.89 485 Jan-18 7.11 3.18 392 7.72 2.89 483 Feb-18 7.01 3.69 332 7.69 2.92 477 Spread (RHS) Lending Deposit 7.0 4.0 percent 6.0 3.0 5.0 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 2.0 Weighted average rates on incremental (fresh) loans and deposits (including interbank and zero markup) during a month. Real (based on YoY inflation)3 WALR WADR Feb-17 3.15 -0.60 2.74 -1.01 Mar-17 3.04 -0.36 1.99 -1.41 Apr-17 2.96 -0.67 2.12 -1.52 6 4 2 0 2.83 -0.92 3.45 -0.30 2.88 -0.47 3.06 -0.29 -2 -4 Oct-17 3.01 -0.67 3.21 -0.47 Nov-17 3.06 -0.56 3.10 -0.52 Dec-17 2.96 -0.57 2.47 -1.06 Jan-18 2.96 -0.96 2.68 -1.24 Feb-18 2.90 -0.43 3.21 -0.11 Sources: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP & Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Financial Markets Feb-16 Aug-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 0.42 Oct-17 4.12 Dec-17 -0.72 Aug-17 2.98 Jun-17 Jul-17 Apr-17 -1.96 -0.50 Feb-17 1.91 3.14 Dec-16 -1.04 -0.72 WADR Oct-16 2.84 2.91 WALR percent May-17 Jun-17 Real Lending and Deposit Rates (Incremental) Aug-16 Real (based on 12-month MA inflation)2 WALR WADR Jun-16 Months Apr-16 1 WALR WADR Spread (bps) WALR percentage points Months * Using YoY CPI Inflation. 2 Nominal rate less CPI inflation (12-month moving average). 3 Nominal rate less CPI inflation (year on year). 24
  27. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium Real Interest Rates Using YoY CPI inflation Using 12-month moving average CPI inflation SBP Policy Rate SBP Policy Rate Core (20% Trim) Headline 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 percent 2.0 1.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Dec-17 Feb-18 Aug-17 Oct-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Dec-17 Feb-18 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Oct-17 Weighted Average Deposit Rates1 41935 41907 (Incremental) Dec-16 Feb-16 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 0.0 Feb-17 1.0 0.0 Dec-16 2.0 1.0 Oct-16 3.0 2.0 Aug-16 4.0 3.0 Jun-16 4.0 Apr-16 percent 8.0 7.0 Jun-16 Aug-16 Weighted Average Lending Rates1 (Incremental) 8.0 Aug-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 -2.0 Apr-16 -2.0 Feb-16 0.0 -1.0 Apr-16 1.0 -1.0 Apr-16 Oct-16 2.0 0.0 Feb-16 Jun-17 3.0 2.0 Weighted Average Lending Rates1 (Incremental) Weighted Average Deposit Rates1 (Incremental) ######### 333.84703 5.0 4.0 343.3884 340.13965 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Feb-18 Dec-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 -4.0 Jun-16 -3.0 -4.0 Aug-16 -2.0 -3.0 Apr-16 -2.0 Feb-16 -1.0 Aug-16 0.0 -1.0 Apr-16 0.0 Feb-16 percent 1.0 Jun-16 percent Aug-17 4.0 3.0 1.0 percent Apr-17 5.0 4.0 3.0 Jun-17 5.0 4.0 Apr-17 6.0 percent percent 6-M KIBOR 6.0 5.0 Dec-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Feb-18 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 -2.0 Aug-16 -2.0 Apr-16 -1.0 Feb-16 0.0 -1.0 Aug-16 1.0 0.0 6-M KIBOR 1 Core (20% Trim) 2.0 Apr-16 percent Headline Weighted average lending and deposit rates excluding transactions in the interbank and on zero markup. Sources: PBS and Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP Financial Markets 25
  28. March 2018 Monetary Policy Information Compendium T-bill Auction (billion Rs (Realized value); rates in percent) FY/Q/ Settlement date TOTAL 3-Month 3 12-Month 2 3 2 3 Noncompetitive bids4 Target Maturity Offered Accepted Offered Accepted 4,469.6 8,636.7 4,470.1 2,541.1 1,296.4 - 2,693.9 1,492.7 - 3,401.6 1,680.9 - 258.4 Q1 1,200.0 862.6 1,328.5 1,208.0 309.8 282.4 6.48 482.4 454.0 6.48 536.3 471.5 6.97 59.3 Q2 1,225.0 1,146.4 1,996.4 918.3 897.7 443.1 6.34 582.0 264.7 6.36 516.7 210.4 6.39 66.0 Q3 1,650.0 1,588.9 2,980.0 1,470.9 750.1 354.7 6.17 715.4 360.8 6.18 1,514.5 755.4 6.21 83.3 Q4 1,025.0 871.6 2,331.8 873.0 583.6 216.2 5.90 914.1 413.2 5.93 834.1 243.5 5.96 49.8 7,200.0 6,430.7 11,057.0 7,274.7 5,060.0 3,609.8 - 4,414.8 2,807.9 - 1,582.1 857.0 - 271.3 Q1 1,450.0 1,178.0 2,967.4 1,625.6 803.6 368.7 5.86 1,339.1 811.1 5.90 824.6 445.8 5.91 81.2 Q2 1,300.0 1,058.4 1,674.5 1,029.0 1,071.5 784.5 5.99 482.8 194.0 6.01 120.2 50.5 5.95 51.1 Q3 2,550.0 2,522.2 4,205.4 2,813.2 1,725.1 1,142.3 5.99 1,915.1 1,326.3 6.01 565.2 344.6 5.99 74.0 Q4 1,900.0 1,672.0 2,209.7 1,806.9 1,459.8 1,314.3 5.99 677.9 476.4 6.01 72.0 16.2 6.04 65.1 12,225.0 3,900.0 3,600.0 4,725.0 11,769.5 3,681.5 3,605.0 4,483.0 14,134.6 4,432.3 4,519.2 5,183.1 11,746.2 4,220.7 3,475.5 4,050.0 12,780.8 3,453.9 4,226.4 5,100.4 10,583.6 3,341.3 3,192.3 4,050.0 5.99 5.99 6.26 1,281.2 915.3 288.1 77.8 1,123.9 840.6 283.3 - 6.01 6.01 72.7 63.0 4.7 4.9 38.8 38.8 6.03 268.0 109.7 72.0 86.2 3 The amount does not include the non-competitive bids. Latest cut-off available T-Bill Auctions (accepted amount) T-Bill Cut-off rate 6-M 12-M 3-M Total Mar-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-17 Jun-17 percent Policy rate 6.45 6.35 6.25 6.15 6.05 5.95 5.85 5.75 5.65 5.55 5.45 Apr-17 12-M May-17 6-M 2-Mar-17 16-Mar-17 30-Mar-17 13-Apr-17 27-Apr-17 11-May-17 25-May-17 8-Jun-17 22-Jun-17 6-Jul-17 20-Jul-17 3-Aug-17 17-Aug-17 31-Aug-17 14-Sep-17 28-Sep-17 12-Oct-17 26-Oct-17 9-Nov-17 23-Nov-17 7-Dec-17 21-Dec-17 4-Jan-18 18-Jan-18 1-Feb-18 15-Feb-18 1-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 billion Rs 3-M 1,200 1,120 1,040 960 880 800 720 640 560 480 400 320 240 160 80 - - Dec-17 2 Oct-17 These amounts are raised from non-bank institutions and/or individuals at auctions weighted average rate. Cut-off - Nov-17 Up till March 27, 2018 4 - Sep-17 1 Cut-off Jul-17 FY181 Q1 Q2 Q31 Cut-off Aug-17 FY17 Offered Accepted 6-Month 2 5,100.0 FY16 Offered Accepted 2 PIB Auction (billion Rs (Face value); rates in percent)5 FY17 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 7 FY18 Q1 Q2 7 Q3 Cut-off rate6 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate6 Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted Cut-off rate Offered Accepted 3-Year 5-Year 6.4 1029.4 514.0 6.2 493.2 301.0 156.8 0.0 6.4 229.4 112.0 6.4 150.1 101.1 6.4 154.2 20.5 6.4 57.6 20.5 6.9 442.8 231.1 6.7 294.0 211.4 57.4 0.0 6.9 59.2 11.0 6.9 32.1 8.7 6.9 23.9 10.1 6.9 18.3 10.1 7-Year 10-Year 7.9 258.4 124.3 7.8 191.1 119.4 20.3 0.0 7.9 26.4 1.2 7.9 20.5 3.7 7.9 36.1 21.8 7.9 28.2 21.8 15-Year 20-Year 30-Year 44.0 - 4.0 - 6.3 - 54.3 52.6 - 1.6 - 1.5 - 55.7 2.50 0.24 0.0 0.0 Excluding non-competitive bids and short-selling accommodation 6 7 Up till March 27, 2018 Total accepted Cut-off margin8 FY16 Q1 Q2 Q3 100.0 100.0 - 273.3 273.3 - 117.7 117.7 - (50) - Q4 - - - - FY17 FY18 Q39 - - - - 8 This cut-off margin, with the benchmark of 6-Month MTB Auction Weighted Average Yield, is applicable to all accepted bids ; 9 Up till March 27, 2018 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP 800.0 980.8 631.8 300.0 234.6 0.0 200.0 315.3 124.2 150.0 202.6 113.5 150.0 214.1 52.4 700.0 104.1 52.4 300.0 3-year Fixed Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk10 Auction (billion Rs) 3-year Variable Rental Rate GOP Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs; margin in bps) Total offered 1733.3 869.5 200.0 5 Target Target 200.0 "-": Either no bid received or bids were rejected. Quarterly rate are for end-period. Total Total Cut-off fixed accepted rental rate11 Target Total offered 180.0 180.0 71.7 444.1 444.1 167.1 196.7 196.7 71.0 5.6 - Q1 - - - - Q2 71.7 - 167.1 - 71.0 - 5.2 - FY16 Q3 Q4 FY17 Q3 Q4 12 FY18 Q3 10 DMMD Circular No. 02 of 2016 dated February 03, 2016 11 Fixed rental rate will be applicable to entire bids, and for the entire tenor of fixed rental rate ; 12 Up till March 27, 2018 Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP Financial Markets 26
  29. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Foreign Exchange Market Daily Movement of PKR against USD (Rs/USD) PKR against international currencies Latest % App / (Dep) of PKR Jul-Mar4 Last MPS Jun-17 FY18 121 116 FY17 27-Mar-18 26-Jan-18 USD 115.50 110.55 104.85 (9.22) (0.02) 106 Euro 143.51 137.75 119.63 (16.64) 2.50 101 Sterling 163.38 157.41 136.24 (16.61) 7.16 96 1.09 1.01 0.94 (14.38) 7.28 115.15 112.25 106.20 (7.77) (1.45) -0.35 1.70 1.35 - - 79.55 82.89 91.68 (13.23) 110 105 100 95 Mar-18 FY17 115 Jan-18 Jul-Mar FY18 120 Nov-17 Jun-17 26-Jan-18 125 Jul-17 27-Mar-18 4 130 Sep-17 Last MPS Yen/USD (rhs) May-17 % App / (Dep) of USD Latest USD/GBP Jan-17 International exchange rates 2 USD/Euro 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Mar-17 Source: SBP Daily Movement of USD against Major Currencies Sep-16 2.01 Nov-16 Daily NEER Jul-16 Premium (Rs) Updated till March 27, 2018 May-16 USD Kerb Mar-16 JPY Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 111 USD/EUR 1.24 1.25 1.14 (8.17) 2.51 USD/GBP 1.41 1.42 1.30 (8.15) 7.18 JPY/USD 105.59 108.98 111.95 (5.69) 7.30 INR/USD 64.88 63.52 64.66 0.33 (3.60) CNY/USD 6.28 6.32 6.78 (7.34) 3.51 Q1-FY15 103.27 98.58 102.63 100.70 4.32 THB/USD 31.18 31.36 33.96 (8.17) (2.16) Q2-FY15 103.45 100.23 100.48 101.88 2.92 MYR/USD 3.88 3.87 4.29 (9.69) 9.52 Q3-FY15 102.24 100.53 101.94 101.41 1.74 SGD/USD 1.31 1.31 1.38 (4.97) 3.47 Q4-FY15 102.18 101.44 101.78 101.83 0.87 Q1-FY16 104.56 101.69 104.51 102.92 2.02 Q2-FY16 106.10 103.54 104.74 104.97 2.52 Updated till March 27, 2018 PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Quarterly Basis 2 The exchange rates are shown as per country practices PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Fiscal Year Basis High Low Close Average High Low Close Average Volatility C/C3 Q3-FY16 104.99 104.07 104.75 104.79 1.40 Volatility C/C3 Q4-FY16 104.90 104.12 104.83 104.73 0.96 FY12 94.69 85.79 94.55 89.27 2.48 Q1-FY17 104.95 104.26 104.62 104.73 1.29 FY13 99.80 93.70 99.66 96.85 1.67 Q2-FY17 104.91 104.45 104.60 104.79 0.91 FY14 110.50 95.75 98.80 102.88 4.07 Q3-FY17 104.90 104.70 104.85 104.84 0.67 FY15 103.45 98.58 101.78 101.46 2.44 Q4-FY174 104.97 104.72 104.85 104.86 0.24 FY16 106.10 101.69 104.83 104.38 1.72 Q1-FY18 108.25 104.90 105.41 105.44 4.22 FY17 104.97 104.26 104.85 104.80 0.78 Q2-FY18 111.50 105.34 110.42 106.55 3.17 FY184 116.25 104.88 115.50 107.60 2.81 Q3-FY184 116.25 110.50 115.50 110.96 0.98 3 4 Reuters: Average Close-to-Close Daily Volatility (in %) Updated upto March 27, 2018; High/Low rates of M2M. Financial Markets 27
  30. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) Base Year: CY2010 2018 2017 2016 2015 NEER Index 2016 2015 2017 2018 p Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Jan Dec 92.58 - -1.00 -1.72 -1.56 2.72 1.66 -0.44 -3.63 -6.08 -9.32 Mar 91.66 - - -0.73 -0.57 3.76 2.68 0.57 -2.66 -5.14 -8.41 Jun 90.99 - - - 0.17 4.52 3.44 1.31 -1.94 -4.44 -7.73 Sep 91.14 - - - - 4.35 3.27 1.14 -2.11 -4.59 -7.89 Dec 95.10 - - - - - -1.04 -3.08 -6.19 -8.57 -11.73 Mar 94.12 - - - - - - -2.06 -5.20 -7.61 -10.80 Jun 92.18 - - - - - - - -3.21 -5.67 -8.92 Sep 89.22 - - - - - - - - -2.54 -5.90 Dec 86.95 - - - - - - - - - -3.45 Janp 83.95 - - - - - - - - - - Changes in Relative price Index (RPI) Base Year: CY2010 2018 2017 2016 2015 RPI 2016 2015 2017 2018 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Janp Dec 131.44 - -0.34 0.86 1.69 1.68 2.40 3.10 3.59 4.23 4.33 Mar 130.99 - - 1.20 2.04 2.03 2.75 3.45 3.94 4.58 4.69 Jun 132.57 - - - 0.83 0.81 1.52 2.22 2.70 3.34 3.44 Sep 133.67 - - - - -0.02 0.69 1.38 1.86 2.49 2.59 Dec 133.65 - - - - - 0.71 1.40 1.88 2.51 2.61 Mar 134.59 - - - - - - 0.69 1.16 1.79 1.89 Jun 135.52 - - - - - - - 0.47 1.09 1.19 Sep 136.16 - - - - - - - - 0.62 0.72 Dec 137.00 - - - - - - - - - 0.10 Janp 137.13 - - - - - - - - - - Changes in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Base Year: CY2010 2018 2017 2016 2015 REER Index 2016 2015 2017 2018 p Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Jan Dec 121.69 - -1.33 -0.88 0.11 4.45 4.10 2.65 -0.18 -2.11 -5.40 Mar 120.07 - - 0.46 1.46 5.86 5.50 4.04 1.17 -0.79 -4.12 Jun 120.62 - - - 0.99 5.37 5.01 3.56 0.71 -1.25 -4.56 Sep 121.82 - - - - 4.33 3.98 2.54 -0.29 -2.22 -5.50 Dec 127.10 - - - - - -0.34 -1.72 -4.43 -6.28 -9.42 Mar 126.67 - - - - - - -1.39 -4.10 -5.96 -9.12 Jun 124.91 - - - - - - - -2.75 -4.64 -7.84 Sep 121.48 - - - - - - - - -1.94 -5.23 Dec 119.12 - - - - - - - - - -3.36 Janp 115.12 - - - - - - - - - - P: Provisional Source: SBP Financial Markets 28
  31. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Capital Market Performance of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Percentage change during Feb-18 FY-17 FY-16 March FY182 FY17 FY16 End-period KSE TM-100 index 45,004 43,239 46,565 37,784 4.1 23.2 9.8 End-period KSE TM-30 index 22,527 21,756 24,251 21,653 3.5 12.0 0.4 Market capitalization (billion Rs)3 9,111 9,039 9,079 7,158 0.8 26.8 -0.7 182 204 350 208 - - - -27.6 -38.7 -602.9 -517.2 - - - Reflects growth since end of the previous month 3 Average during the period 4 Cumulative net flow during the period KSE -100 Index and Ready Volume KSE-100 index (rhs) 960 840 720 600 480 360 240 120 0 55,400 52,300 49,200 46,100 43,000 39,900 36,800 33,700 30,600 27,500 24,400 21,300 18,200 15,100 12,000 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 Source: PSX , JS Research Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 million shares Volume of Shares Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market (as percent of market capitalization) Sources: PSX and S&DWD, SBP Updated upto March 27, 2018 Source: S&DWD, SBP Updated upto March 27, 2018 55,400 52,300 49,200 46,100 43,000 39,900 36,800 33,700 30,600 27,500 24,400 21,300 18,200 15,100 12,000 Financial Expenses of Corporate Sector 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 CY10 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 KSE-100 index (rhs) as percent of total expenses SCRA Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 million US$ Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA) Net Flows CY15R Upto March 27, 2018 2 CY14 1 CY13 4 CY12 SCRA flows (US$ million) CY11 Ready volume (million shares)3 CY16P Mar-181 Source: PSX and S&DWD, SBP Sources: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and JR Research. Financial Markets 29
  32. Monetary Policy Information Compendium March 2018 Financial Soundness Indicators percent Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017 Dec 2017 Risk weighted CAR1 16 .2 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.8 Gross NPLs to total loans 10.1 9.9 9.3 9.2 8.4 Provision to NPLs 85.0 85.4 83.7 85.3 87.2 Net NPLs to net loans 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 Returns on assets (before tax) 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 Return on assets (after tax) 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 ROE (before tax)2 23.9 21.7 21.9 19.1 19.1 ROE (after tax)2 14.4 14.2 13.1 10.9 11.5 Net interest income/gross income 71.2 70.9 70.7 71.9 72.7 Liquid assets/total assets 53.7 54.0 53.8 54.5 54.0 Liquid assets/total deposits 72.1 73.9 74.9 76.0 76.1 Advances/deposits 46.6 47.5 48.7 48.3 50.1 Note: Figures are based on unaudited Quarterly Report of Condition (QRC) submitted by banks. 1 Data of IDBP,PPCBL, and SME Bank is based on Basel I. 2 Average equity and surplus. Banks' NPLs Banks' Profitability Indicators (percent) Gross NPLs to total loans (RHS) Return on equity (after tax) 1.0 8.0 10.0 0.8 7.0 8.0 0.6 Dec-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Dec-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Mar-16 Dec-17 12.0 Sep-17 1.2 Jun-17 14.0 Mar-17 10.0 Dec-16 1.4 Sep-16 16.0 Jun-16 11.0 Mar-16 1.6 Dec-15 18.0 9.0 Source: FSD, SBP Return on assets (after tax) 12.0 percent 660 640 620 600 580 560 540 520 500 Dec-15 billion rupees Gross NPLs Source: FSD, SBP Source: Financial Stability Department (FSD), SBP Financial Markets 30