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Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - April 2022

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Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - April 2022

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  1. I           Inflation Monitor April 2022 (Base Year: 2015-16) State Bank of Pakistan Statistics & DWH Department        
  2. II   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from Bloomberg, Trading Economics, IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis                http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/inflation_Monitor
  3.   State Bank of Pakistan Table of Contents 1. Inflation in Brief............................................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Heat-maps of CPI inflation ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 3. Trends in Inflation ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 4. Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages) ............................................................................................................................. 8 5. Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month) ............................................................................................................................. 9 6. Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation......................................................................................................................... 11 7. Weighted Contribution .................................................................................................................................................................. 14 8. Inflation Diffusion Index ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 9. Domestic Commodity Prices ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 10. Inflation in Global Context ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 11. Global Commodity Prices ........................................................................................................................................................ 20 12. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI .................................................................................................................................................... 21 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Table A0: Inflation – Summary ......................................................................................................................................................... 26 Table A1: National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) ..................................................................................... 27 Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) ........................................................................................ 27 Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) ......................................................................................... 28 Table A4: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) – April 2022 .............................................................................. 29 Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2022 ........................................................................... 30 Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2022 ................................................... 31 Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2022 ................................................. 32 Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in April 2022 .......................................... 33 Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in April 2022 .................................. 34 Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2022 ............................................................................ 35 Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2022 .......................................................................... 36 Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2022 .................................................. 37 Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in April 2022 ................................................ 38 Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in April 2022.......................................... 39 Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in April 2022 ................................. 40 Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: April 2022 .......................................................... 41 Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: April 2022 ........................................................... 42 Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: April 2022.................................................................................... 43 Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices ....................................................................................................................... 44 Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted....................................................................................... 45 Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted .......................................................................................... 46 Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted ........................................................................................... 47 Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors .................................................................................................... 48 Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors ........................................................................................................ 48 Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors ......................................................................................................... 49 Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted............................................................................. 50 Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series ..................................................................... 51     III
  4. IV   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series ...................................................................... 52 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent)............................................................................ 53 Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ............................................................................... 54 Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ................................................................................ 55 Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) ........................................................................ 56 Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY).......................................................................... 57 Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM) ....................................................................... 58 Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) ........................................................................ 59 Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY) ...................................................................... 60 Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies ................................................................................................................................... 61 Technical Notes ................................................................................................................................................................................... 61 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan .............................................................................................. 62  
  5. State Bank of Pakistan       Team        Mazhar Hussain Sr. Joint Director mazhar.hussain@sbp.org.pk  Syed Aamir Ali Bokhari Joint Director syed.aamir2@sbp.org.pk  Haider Ali Deputy Director haider.ali@sbp.org.pk V
  7.   State Bank of Pakistan 1. Inflation in Brief 1. National CPI Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 13.4 percent in April 2022 from 12.7 percent in previous month. It stood at 11.1 percent in the corresponding month of last year. However, on monthon-month basis (MoM), National CPI Inflation increased to 1.6 percent in April 2022 from 0.8 percent in previous month. It was recorded 1.0 percent in the corresponding month of last year. 2. Urban CPI Inflation (year-on-year basis) increased from 11.9 percent in March 2022 to 12.2 percent in April 2022. It stood at 11.0 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Urban CPI Inflation (month-on-month basis) increased from 0.7 percent in March 2022 to 1.6 percent in April 2022. It stood at 1.3 percent in the corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI Inflation recorded at 1.0 percent in April 2022 compared to 0.7 percent in the previous month. 3. Rural CPI Inflation (year-on-year basis) increased to 15.1 percent in April 2022 from 13.9 percent in previous month. It was recorded 11.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Rural CPI Inflation (month-on-month basis) increased to 1.6 percent in April 2022 from 1.0 percent in the previous month. Seasonally adjusted (month-on-month) CPI Inflation recorded at 1.5 percent in April 2022 compared to 1.0 percent in previous month. 4. Urban Core Inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis remained same at 10.5 percent in both April 2022 and March 2022. It stood at 9.8 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-onmonth basis, Urban Core Inflation (trimmed) increased to 0.9 percent in April 2022 from 0.8 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.6 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 5. Rural Core Inflation (trimmed) on year-on-year basis increased to 12.8 percent in April 2022 from 11.7 percent in March 2022. It was recorded 10.6 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, Rural Core Inflation (trimmed) stood at 0.9 percent in April 2022 as compared to 0.8 percent in previous month and 0.2 percent during corresponding month of last year. 6. Urban Core (Non-food, Non-energy (NFNE)) Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 9.1 percent in April 2022 from 8.9 in previous month. It stood at 7.0 percent during corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, Urban Core (NFNE) Inflation decreased to 1.1 percent in April 2022 from 1.2 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.9 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 7. Rural Core (Non-food, Non-energy (NFNE)) Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 10.9 percent in April 2022 from 10.3 percent in previous month. It stood at 7.7 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, it increased to 1.2 percent in April 2022 from 1.1 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.7 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 8. WPI Inflation on year-on-year basis increased from 23.8 percent in March 2022 to 28.1 percent in April 2022. It stood at 16.6 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On month-on-month basis, it decreased to 3.2 percent in April 2022 from 3.9 percent in previous month. A deflation of 0.4 percent was recorded during the corresponding month of last year.     1
  8. 2   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 9. SPI Inflation on year-on-year basis increased to 16.5 percent in April 2022 from 15.8 percent in previous month. During corresponding month of last year, SPI Inflation stood at 17.8 percent. On month-on-month basis, SPI Inflation increased to 1.1 percent in April 2022 as compared to 0.6 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.4 percent during the corresponding month of last year.
  9. State Bank of Pakistan   3 2. Heat-maps of CPI inflation Heat map visually elaborates the evolution of inflation. A heat-map for National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (YoY and MoM) and their important sub-indices for the time span of last thirteen months is presented. The observed inflation is compared with the benchmark of inflation target of 8.0 percent for FY22. Green areas indicate low inflation pressures and increasing order of red (light to dark color spectrum i.e. green to orange to brown to red) represents higher and higher inflationary pressures. Heat-map of National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (YoY) National Headline Urban Rural Urban Food Rural Urban Core Rural Apr-21 11.1 11.0 11.3 15.7 14.1 7.0 7.7 May-21 10.9 10.8 10.9 15.3 12.8 6.8 7.6 Jun-21 9.7 9.6 9.7 11.0 9.8 6.7 7.3 Jul-21 8.4 8.7 8.0 9.4 7.3 6.9 6.9 Aug-21 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.2 9.1 6.3 6.2 Sep-21 9.0 9.1 8.8 10.8 9.1 6.4 6.2 Oct-21 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.4 7.2 6.7 6.7 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 11.5 12.3 13.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 12.0 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 10.9 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 15.1 11.9 11.7 13.3 14.3 14.5 15.6 8.6 9.0 11.8 14.6 15.5 17.7 7.6 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.9 9.1 8.2 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.3 10.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates Key <6 8.5 >10   Heat-map of National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (MoM) National Headline Urban Rural Urban Food Rural Urban Core Rural Apr-21 1.0 1.3 0.6 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 May-21 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Jun-21 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -0.8 0.3 0.4 Jul-21 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.7 Aug-21 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 Sep-21 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 3.7 0.4 0.5 Oct-21 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 0.9 1.0 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 3.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 2.9 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 3.1 -0.5 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.6 3.9 -2.3 -0.8 2.2 1.8 3.7 3.3 -3.1 0.4 2.6 2.3 2.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates Key <0.00 0.75 >1.50   Heat-map of National CPI inflation (YoY) Weights General 100.00 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 34.58 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.02 Clothing and Footwear 8.60 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 23.63 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 Health 2.79 Transport 5.91 Communication 2.21 Recreation and Culture 1.59 Education 3.79 Restaurants and Hotels 6.92 Misc. Goods and Services 4.87 Apr-21 11.1 15.9 4.9 11.9 9.7 9.5 9.0 6.5 1.5 4.6 1.6 8.2 10.0 May-21 10.9 14.8 5.0 10.7 8.4 9.6 9.0 14.0 1.5 4.9 1.6 8.6 10.7 Jun-21 9.7 10.5 5.0 10.0 9.1 9.8 9.4 16.4 1.6 6.2 1.8 8.8 10.9 Jul-21 8.4 8.2 3.1 9.5 9.2 9.8 8.6 10.5 2.8 5.9 2.0 8.5 9.4 Aug-21 8.4 10.0 2.1 9.3 8.0 9.6 8.5 8.1 2.8 6.4 2.9 7.3 5.9 <6     Sep-21 9.0 10.2 2.0 9.2 9.8 9.3 8.0 9.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.8 7.4 Oct-21 9.2 8.3 1.9 9.3 12.0 9.2 8.0 14.4 2.8 7.5 2.2 8.3 8.7 8.5 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 11.5 12.3 13.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 10.5 10.3 12.8 14.7 15.3 17.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 5.1 9.8 11.2 11.2 9.7 9.7 10.8 14.8 16.6 15.5 9.0 8.3 7.1 10.4 12.3 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.7 8.5 9.4 9.2 10.1 10.0 10.4 24.4 24.1 23.1 25.0 26.3 28.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 1.6 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.2 9.3 9.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.4 8.3 8.4 11.0 12.6 13.0 14.4 14.6 14.6 10.0 10.6 10.3 10.1 12.4 12.8 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10  
  10. 4   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (YoY) Weights General 100.00 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.42 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.85 Clothing and Footwear 8.01 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 27.03 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.09 Health 2.31 Transport 6.14 Communication 2.35 Recreation and Culture 1.73 Education 4.88 Restaurants and Hotels 7.41 Misc. Goods and Services 4.77 Apr-21 11.0 17.0 6.0 12.7 9.3 8.6 9.4 6.8 2.0 3.2 1.2 8.5 9.8 May-21 10.8 16.3 6.1 11.2 7.9 8.8 9.6 14.2 2.0 3.4 1.2 9.1 10.8 Jun-21 9.6 11.1 6.1 10.5 8.4 8.9 10.3 17.0 2.0 5.1 1.3 9.4 10.9 Jul-21 8.7 9.2 3.8 10.4 8.5 9.5 9.5 11.4 3.8 5.4 1.5 9.5 9.3 Aug-21 8.3 10.6 2.8 10.3 7.2 9.4 9.1 8.8 3.8 5.5 2.5 7.6 6.1 Sep-21 9.1 11.1 2.6 10.0 8.9 9.5 8.7 9.7 3.8 6.3 2.3 8.5 8.0 <6 Oct-21 9.6 9.4 2.1 10.2 11.1 9.1 8.4 15.0 3.8 7.6 1.9 8.6 9.3 8.5 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 12.0 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.2 11.7 13.6 14.5 14.8 16.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 4.8 9.5 12.2 12.4 9.4 9.6 10.5 13.6 15.4 14.2 7.8 7.1 5.6 10.0 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.6 13.5 9.3 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.3 25.7 25.0 23.4 24.8 26.3 28.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.0 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.7 8.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 9.0 9.2 11.4 13.2 13.2 15.0 14.5 14.5 10.1 10.4 10.1 9.6 11.9 12.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (YoY) Weights General 100.00 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.87 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.28 Clothing and Footwear 9.48 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 18.49 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 Health 3.51 Transport 5.56 Communication 1.99 Recreation and Culture 1.38 Education 2.13 Restaurants and Hotels 6.19 Misc. Goods and Services 5.02 Apr-21 11.3 14.7 3.7 10.8 10.7 10.8 8.6 6.1 0.8 7.0 2.9 7.6 10.3 May-21 10.9 13.2 3.8 10.0 9.7 10.8 8.4 13.5 0.8 7.5 2.9 7.6 10.6 Jun-21 9.7 9.8 3.8 9.3 10.7 11.0 8.6 15.5 0.9 8.0 3.6 7.7 10.9 Jul-21 8.0 7.2 2.4 8.4 10.6 10.3 7.7 9.0 1.0 6.9 4.1 6.8 9.5 Aug-21 8.4 9.3 1.4 8.1 9.7 10.0 7.8 6.9 1.0 8.0 4.5 6.9 5.7 Sep-21 8.8 9.3 1.3 8.2 11.6 8.9 7.3 8.2 0.9 7.9 4.1 6.6 6.5 <6 Oct-21 8.7 7.1 1.6 8.2 14.0 9.3 7.5 13.4 1.0 7.3 3.2 7.6 7.9 8.5 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 10.9 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 15.1 8.7 8.9 12.0 15.0 15.9 18.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 5.5 10.1 10.1 9.7 10.0 9.8 11.3 17.5 19.2 18.5 11.6 11.1 10.3 11.0 13.7 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.4 7.8 8.7 8.3 10.0 10.0 10.4 22.3 22.5 22.5 25.4 26.2 27.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 7.5 7.3 7.4 8.5 10.5 11.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.4 5.6 5.1 10.3 11.5 12.6 13.3 14.6 14.7 9.7 10.7 10.8 10.7 13.1 13.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Heat-map of National CPI inflation (MoM) Weights General 100.00 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 34.58 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.02 Clothing and Footwear 8.60 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 23.63 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 Health 2.79 Transport 5.91 Communication 2.21 Recreation and Culture 1.59 Education 3.79 Restaurants and Hotels 6.92 Misc. Goods and Services 4.87 Apr-21 1.0 2.2 -0.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 -1.2 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 May-21 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.3 -1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.7 Jun-21 -0.3 -1.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 Jul-21 1.3 1.8 -0.1 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 4.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.6 Aug-21 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.3 <0.00 Sep-21 2.1 4.0 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.1 1.4 Oct-21 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.5 2.4 0.8 0.7 5.3 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.75 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 3.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 3.9 -3.4 -0.5 2.5 2.3 3.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.7 1.6 2.3 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.6 0.7 2.1 0.6 0.9 6.3 1.3 1.0 3.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.7 0.6 3.5 2.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 0.8 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50   Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (MoM) Weights General 100.00 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.42 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.85 Clothing and Footwear 8.01 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 27.03 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.09 Health 2.31 Transport 6.14 Communication 2.35 Recreation and Culture 1.73 Education 4.88 Restaurants and Hotels 7.41 Misc. Goods and Services 4.77 Apr-21 1.3 3.2 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 -1.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 May-21 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 -1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8 Jun-21 -0.4 -2.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.0 1.8 0.1 0.8 0.9 Jul-21 1.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.2 4.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 Aug-21 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.5 <0.00 Sep-21 2.0 4.0 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 1.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 1.4 Oct-21 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.6 5.3 0.1 1.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.75 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 2.9 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 4.3 -3.0 -1.1 2.3 2.1 4.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.3 1.3 2.9 0.7 1.3 0.9 2.0 2.0 2.6 0.6 -1.6 -2.2 -0.6 1.4 1.8 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.6 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.8 6.6 1.3 0.4 3.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.7 0.6 3.5 2.3 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 0.7 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  11. State Bank of Pakistan   5 Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (MoM) Weights General 100.00 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.87 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.28 Clothing and Footwear 9.48 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 18.49 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 Health 3.51 Transport 5.56 Communication 1.99 Recreation and Culture 1.38 Education 2.13 Restaurants and Hotels 6.19 Misc. Goods and Services 5.02 Apr-21 0.6 1.0 -0.4 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.5 -1.2 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.2 0.2 May-21 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 -1.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.5 Jun-21 -0.1 -0.9 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.1 Jul-21 1.4 1.8 -0.1 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 3.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 Aug-21 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 Sep-21 2.3 4.1 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.3 <0.00 Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Apr-21 Rural 100.00 11.3 Food 45.95 14.1 Non-perishable 40.16 17.2 Perishable 5.79 0.5 Non Food 54.05 8.9 Energy 11.41 13.8 NFNE (Core) 42.64 7.7 HRI 8.61 6.6 Core Excl HRI 34.03 8.0 May-21 10.9 12.8 16.9 -8.2 9.2 16.0 7.6 6.6 7.8 Jun-21 9.7 9.8 12.2 -5.5 9.7 19.8 7.3 6.6 7.5 Jul-21 8.0 7.3 10.3 -9.7 8.7 15.7 6.9 6.1 7.1 Aug-21 8.4 9.1 9.9 5.4 7.7 13.8 6.2 6.1 6.3 Jun-21 9.6 11.0 13.5 -2.5 8.8 21.1 6.7 6.2 7.0 Jul-21 8.7 9.4 12.7 -8.7 8.2 16.1 6.9 6.1 7.3 Sep-21 8.8 9.1 12.3 -6.8 8.5 17.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 Sep-21 9.1 10.8 15.3 -9.6 8.1 17.8 6.4 6.1 6.5 <6 Heat-map of Rural CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Apr-21 May-21 Rural 100.00 0.6 0.0 Food 45.95 0.9 0.2 Non-perishable 40.16 -1.2 1.8 Perishable 5.79 18.5 -10.2 Non Food 54.05 0.3 -0.3 Energy 11.41 -1.3 -2.4 NFNE (Core) 42.64 0.7 0.3 HRI 8.61 1.2 0.0 Core Excl HRI 34.03 0.6 0.4 Jun-21 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 Jul-21 1.4 1.6 0.4 12.1 1.2 3.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 Oct-21 9.6 9.4 13.2 -8.9 9.7 25.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 8.5 Aug-21 0.7 0.8 0.5 3.3 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 <0.00     Oct-21 8.7 7.2 11.2 -12.5 10.0 23.2 6.7 6.6 6.7 8.5 Aug-21 8.3 10.2 12.2 1.7 7.2 12.2 6.3 6.1 6.4 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 3.1 -0.5 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.6 3.6 -3.7 0.2 2.8 2.5 3.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 2.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.3 3.2 1.9 -1.4 -2.3 -0.8 2.0 3.1 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.7 0.9 2.5 0.2 0.9 5.8 1.3 2.0 3.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 3.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.3 2.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates 0.75 <6 Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Apr-21 May-21 100.00 11.0 10.8 Urban Food 36.80 15.7 15.3 Non-perishable 32.34 19.4 19.3 Perishable 4.46 4.6 -0.2 Non Food 63.20 8.2 8.3 Energy 9.47 14.9 16.6 NFNE (Core) 53.73 7.0 6.8 HRI 19.26 6.2 6.2 Core Excl HRI 34.47 7.5 7.2 Oct-21 2.2 2.7 0.5 0.6 2.7 1.0 0.7 5.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.9 1.9 Sep-21 2.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 1.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.6 Oct-21 2.2 2.6 2.0 7.1 1.9 5.2 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.75 >1.50   Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 10.9 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.9 15.1 8.6 9.0 11.8 14.6 15.5 17.7 11.7 12.8 12.8 12.4 13.7 15.8 -5.5 -12.0 6.6 35.8 32.8 34.4 13.0 14.0 13.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 32.0 34.0 32.7 21.9 20.4 19.8 8.2 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.3 10.9 6.6 6.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 8.6 9.5 9.7 10.3 11.4 12.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 12.0 12.7 13.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 11.9 11.7 13.3 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.3 15.5 14.7 11.8 13.0 14.4 -1.9 -8.7 6.3 34.1 28.0 25.6 12.0 13.4 12.8 9.9 10.4 10.2 37.2 41.3 38.1 20.2 18.0 15.7 7.6 8.3 8.2 7.8 8.9 9.1 6.6 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.6 8.1 9.2 9.3 8.7 10.5 11.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 3.1 -0.5 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.6 3.3 -3.1 0.4 2.6 2.3 2.8 1.8 -0.4 1.0 1.4 2.8 0.6 14.5 -21.8 -5.1 13.3 0.5 20.0 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.4 -0.2 0.5 7.0 4.4 1.9 -0.9 -4.0 -1.8 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  12. 6   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Heat-map of Urban CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Apr-21 May-21 Urban 100.00 1.3 0.2 Food 36.80 2.7 1.1 Non-perishable 32.34 0.5 2.5 Perishable 4.46 23.0 -7.1 Non Food 63.20 0.5 -0.3 Energy 9.47 -1.5 -3.2 NFNE (Core) 53.73 0.9 0.2 HRI 19.26 1.6 0.0 Core Excl HRI 34.47 0.5 0.3 Jun-21 -0.4 -1.9 -2.3 -3.9 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 Jul-21 1.3 1.5 0.8 7.3 1.1 3.5 0.8 1.4 0.4 Aug-21 0.5 0.5 0.3 2.0 0.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 <0.00                                               Sep-21 2.0 3.6 4.2 2.6 1.1 4.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 Oct-21 1.7 1.5 1.0 5.2 1.8 6.0 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.75 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 2.9 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.6 3.9 -2.3 -0.8 2.2 1.8 3.7 2.4 0.2 -0.4 0.5 2.6 1.7 15.1 -20.2 -5.4 14.7 -1.1 20.8 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.3 7.6 5.8 -0.4 -2.3 -5.9 -3.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  13.     g: SPI 30 20 10 0 -10 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 25 Feb-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 10 5 0 -5 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 1 0 -1 20 15 10 5 15 2 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 -5 0 Percent 15 Apr-22 Mar-22 Sep-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 20 Apr-22 f: WPI -5 Feb-22 40 -3 Jan-22 -2 Mar-22 -5 Jan-22 0 -1 Dec-21 0 Dec-21 5 Nov-21 1 Nov-21 10 Sep-21 3 Oct-21 15 Sep-21 d: Urban NFNE Dec-21 YoY Oct-21 -5 Aug-21 -3 Jul-21 -5 Aug-21 0 Jul-21 -2 Aug-21 0 Jul-21 -1 Jun-21 0 Jun-21 1 Jun-21 15 2 May-21 b: Urban CPI May-21 3 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 a: National CPI May-21 5 Apr-21 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 10 Apr-21 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Percent   State Bank of Pakistan 3. Trends in Inflation Fig 3.1: Summary of Inflation Trends (in percent) MoM (RHS) 4 3 2 -2 -3 -4 c: Rural CPI 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 e: Rural NFNE 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 7
  14.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 4. Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages)   Fig 4.1: Movements in Price Indices (12 months moving average (12mma) in percent) National Urban Rural WPI SPI 25 20 15 10 5 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 0 Apr-20 8   
  15. State Bank of Pakistan   9 5. Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month) Fig 5.1: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) National CPI Urban CPI Rural CPI WPI SPI 6 5 4 3 Percent 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 Aug-19 Jun-19 Apr-19 -6   Fig 5.2: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) - Urban CPI Basket CPI Food Non-Food NFNE Trimmed 6 5 4 3 Percent 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 Aug-19 Jun-19 Apr-19 -6      
  16.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Fig 5.3: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) - Rural CPI Basket CPI Food Non-Food NFNE Trimmed 6 5 4 3 2 Percent 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 Aug-19 Jun-19 -6 Apr-19 10                
  17. State Bank of Pakistan   6. Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation Monthly Consumer Price Indices, YoY growth rates and inflation build up over June along with seasonally adjusted (MoM) growth rates in CPI (National, Urban and Rural) is summarized in the following graphs (Figure 6.1 to 6.3). 6.1. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (National CPI) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 14 160 12 Percent 150 10 8 140 6 130 4 Apr May Jun Apr Jun Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov 2020-21 2021-22 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation 16 3.0 14 2.5 2.0 Percent 12 10 8 1.5 1.0 0.5 6 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2019-20 2020-21 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov -1.5 Oct 0 Sep -1.0 Aug 2 Jul -0.5 Sep 0.0 4 Aug Percent Oct 2019-20 c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June     Sep Jul Jun May Apr Mar 2021-22 May 2020-21 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 2019-20 Aug 2 120 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100). 170 2021-22 11
  18. Inflation Monitor , April 2022 6.2. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (Urban CPI Basket) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 170 14 160 12 Percent 150 10 8 140 6 130 4 Apr May Jun Jun Mar Feb Jan 2020-21 May 2019-20 Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Jun Apr May Mar 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Aug 2019-20 Aug 2 120 2021-22 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June 3.0 14 2.5 12 2.0 Percent 10 8 1.5 1.0 0.5 6 0.0 4 -0.5 2 -1.0 2020-21 2021-22 2019-20 Mar Jan 2020-21 Feb Dec Nov Oct Sep -1.5 Aug Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Oct 2019-20 Nov Sep Aug Jul 0 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100).   Percent 12 2021-22
  19. State Bank of Pakistan   6.3. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (Rural CPI Basket) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 18 16 160 14 Percent 150 12 10 8 140 6 4 130 2 Apr May Jun May Jun Mar Feb Jan Dec Oct Nov 2020-21 2021-22 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation 16 3.5 14 3.0 2.5 12 2.0 10 Percent 8 6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4 -0.5 2 -1.0 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2019-20 2020-21 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct -1.5 Sep Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 0 Aug Percent Sep 2019-20 c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June     Aug Jun May Apr Mar 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 2019-20 Jul 0 120 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100). 170 2021-22 13
  20. 14   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 7. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall urban CPI inflation increased to 48.5 percent during April 2022 from 45.6 percent in previous month. It was 52.4 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group decreased to 51.5 percent in April 2022 from 54.4 percent in previous month. Weighted Contribution of non-food was 47.6 percent during corresponding month of last year. Table 7.1 provide the historical perspective of weighted contribution of food and nonfood group and their respective sub-indices (Perishable food, Non-Perishable food, Energy, Core Inflation (NFNE), NFNE excluding HRI and HRI) in the overall inflation for urban basket. Table 7.1 Weighted Contribution (in percent) to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) Food Group Period Non-Food Group Overall CPI Food Perishable food NonPerishable food Non-food Energy Core Inflation (NFNE) NFNE excl HRI HRI a=(b+e) b=(c+d) c d e=(f+g) f g=(h+i) h i Apr-21 100.0 52.4 2.1 50.4 47.6 13.0 34.6 23.7 10.9 May-21 100.0 52.0 -0.1 52.1 48.0 13.9 34.1 23.2 10.9 Jun-21 100.0 43.0 -1.2 44.2 57.1 19.4 37.8 25.5 12.3 Jul-21 100.0 40.8 -5.2 46.0 59.2 17.3 41.9 28.7 13.2 Aug-21 100.0 45.7 1.0 44.7 54.3 14.3 40.0 26.4 13.6 Sep-21 100.0 44.7 -5.6 50.4 55.3 18.7 36.7 24.4 12.3 Oct-21 100.0 37.9 -5.1 43.0 62.1 25.4 36.7 24.0 12.8 Nov-21 100.0 38.6 -0.9 39.5 61.4 28.6 32.8 22.7 10.1 Dec-21 100.0 35.0 -3.4 38.5 65.0 30.8 34.2 24.6 9.5 Jan-22 100.0 38.2 2.0 36.2 61.8 28.4 33.4 24.5 8.9 Feb-22 100.0 46.1 10.9 35.2 54.0 18.7 35.3 25.5 9.8 Mar-22 100.0 45.6 8.9 36.7 54.4 15.3 39.1 29.7 9.4 Apr-22 100.0 48.5 9.6 38.9 51.5 12.7 38.7 30.4 8.4 Note: The weighted contribution of sub-indices may not exactly tally with the weighted contribution of overall CPI index due to rounding off For rural basket, the weighted contribution of food group in the overall rural CPI inflation increased to 55.5 percent during April 2022 from 52.6 percent in previous month. It was 57.7 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group decreased to 44.5 percent in April 2022 from 47.4 percent in previous month. Weighted contribution of non-food group was 42.3 percent during corresponding month of last year. Table 7.2 provide the historical perspective of weighted contribution of food (Perishable food, Non-Perishable food) and non-food group (Energy, Core Inflation (NFNE), NFNE excluding HRI and HRI) in the overall inflation for rural basket.
  21. State Bank of Pakistan   Table 7.2 Weighted Contribution (in percent) to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) Food Group Period Non-Food Group Overall CPI Food Perishable food NonPerishable food Non-food Energy Core Inflation (NFNE) NFNE excl HRI HRI a=(b+e) b=(c+d) c d e=(f+g) f g=(h+i) h i Apr-21 100.0 57.7 0.3 57.4 42.3 13.2 29.1 24.1 5.0 May-21 100.0 54.9 -4.6 59.5 45.1 15.2 29.8 24.7 5.2 Jun-21 100.0 47.4 -3.3 50.7 52.6 20.4 32.2 26.5 5.7 Jul-21 100.0 43.4 -8.0 51.4 56.6 20.4 36.2 29.9 6.3 Aug-21 100.0 51.1 3.7 47.4 48.8 17.7 31.2 25.2 6.0 Sep-21 100.0 49.5 -5.2 54.8 50.4 20.8 29.6 24.0 5.6 Oct-21 100.0 40.8 -10.9 51.7 59.2 27.7 31.5 25.3 6.2 Nov-21 100.0 39.2 -4.0 43.2 60.8 30.1 30.8 25.9 4.9 Dec-21 100.0 37.2 -6.9 44.1 62.8 31.2 31.6 27.0 4.6 Jan-22 100.0 43.2 2.7 40.5 56.8 27.7 29.1 25.3 3.8 Feb-22 100.0 51.3 12.4 38.9 48.7 19.2 29.5 25.8 3.6 Mar-22 100.0 52.6 11.2 41.5 47.4 16.7 30.7 27.2 3.5 Apr-22 100.0 55.5 12.7 42.8 44.5 14.6 29.9 26.8 3.1 Note: The weighted contribution of sub-indices may not exactly tally with the weighted contribution of overall CPI index due to rounding off     15
  22. 16   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 8. Inflation Diffusion Index Inflation diffusion index (IDI) is the difference (MoM change) between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e. depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation) in CPI basket for which prices have reported. IDI for urban and rural baskets (CPI, Core and twelve groups) is presented in Table 8.1(a & b) for the last thirteen months. Table 8.1(a) Inflation Diffusion Index for Urban CPI Basket - based on MoM change Groups Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 General 43.3 42.1 47.2 52.2 51.7 57.6 60.1 70.2 63.2 57.6 60.1 60.1 57.3 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 24.4 28.9 30.0 38.9 40.0 55.6 41.1 42.2 34.4 40.0 46.7 34.4 44.4 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 33.3 66.7 33.3 0.0 0.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 66.7 33.3 33.3 66.7 Clothing & Footwear 67.5 55.0 47.5 47.5 45.0 50.0 55.0 80.0 85.0 77.5 77.5 70.0 67.5 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & 20.7 other Fuels -6.9 27.6 58.6 41.4 58.6 72.4 72.4 69.0 13.8 3.4 10.3 17.2 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc. 73.8 81.0 71.4 83.3 78.6 83.3 88.1 90.5 88.1 88.1 90.5 90.5 90.5 Health 77.4 61.3 64.5 54.8 74.2 54.8 51.6 64.5 90.3 71.0 87.1 77.4 74.2 Transport 18.8 25.0 31.3 37.5 46.9 40.6 50.0 93.8 53.1 62.5 62.5 59.4 40.6 Communication 40.0 0.0 20.0 60.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Recreation & Culture 12.0 24.0 64.0 68.0 56.0 48.0 72.0 68.0 24.0 36.0 36.0 68.0 44.0 Education 31.3 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 56.3 81.3 68.8 31.3 37.5 75.0 43.8 Restaurant & Hotels 57.1 85.7 71.4 71.4 57.1 64.3 85.7 85.7 100.0 78.6 92.9 78.6 78.6 Miscellaneous 65.5 79.3 75.9 58.6 69.0 89.7 82.8 96.6 86.2 89.7 86.2 100.0 89.7 NFNE 57.0 51.1 54.9 57.4 56.2 59.1 66.0 80.9 75.3 67.2 69.4 76.6 67.2
  23. State Bank of Pakistan   Table 8.1(b) Inflation Diffusion Index for Rural CPI Basket - based on MoM change Groups Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 General 35.2 32.0 43.9 44.3 41.0 54.1 66.8 61.9 56.1 57.4 59.4 52.0 54.9 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 15.2 13.9 20.3 29.1 27.8 41.8 49.4 29.1 21.5 44.3 45.6 41.8 32.9 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 40.0 60.0 60.0 -20.0 0.0 40.0 80.0 40.0 80.0 60.0 100.0 0.0 80.0 Clothing & Footwear 55.6 74.1 44.4 55.6 25.9 74.1 81.5 96.3 96.3 70.4 92.6 74.1 92.6 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & 17.4 other Fuels -13.0 39.1 73.9 60.9 65.2 91.3 87.0 73.9 17.4 4.3 0.0 26.1 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc. 61.5 61.5 76.9 80.8 61.5 57.7 84.6 88.5 96.2 92.3 92.3 84.6 80.8 Health 64.3 42.9 78.6 14.3 64.3 42.9 57.1 71.4 78.6 64.3 78.6 42.9 71.4 Transport 18.8 37.5 68.8 62.5 43.8 62.5 68.8 81.3 43.8 62.5 62.5 37.5 50.0 Communication 20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Recreation & Culture 30.8 23.1 38.5 30.8 53.8 53.8 61.5 53.8 15.4 38.5 53.8 69.2 30.8 Education 80.0 0.0 60.0 80.0 60.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 60.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 Restaurant & Hotels 42.9 57.1 28.6 28.6 28.6 64.3 78.6 85.7 85.7 78.6 57.1 78.6 57.1 Miscellaneous 58.8 47.1 70.6 41.2 58.8 88.2 88.2 88.2 82.4 94.1 76.5 88.2 94.1 NFNE 55.9 46.3 59.6 53.7 47.8 57.4 71.3 75.0 72.1 67.6 71.3 66.9 74.3     17
  24. 18   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 9. Domestic Commodity Prices Inflation in domestic food commodities (YoY and MoM in percent) for selected essential food items covering both urban and rural CPI baskets is given in table 9.1. Table 9.1 Inflation in Domestic Urban and Rural CPI Food Commodities (in percent) – April 2022 S. No Item Unit Urban CPI Rural CPI YoY YoY MoM MoM 1 Wheat 10 Kg 27.0 -9.1 24.5 -10.2 2 Wheat Flour Bag 20 Kg 12.2 -1.0 16.9 -1.3 3 Rice Basmati Broken (Superior/Average Quality) * 1 Kg 0.6 -1.2 14.4 1.1 4 Beef with Bone (Average Quality) 1 Kg 9.2 1.7 10.8 1.6 5 Mutton (Average Quality) 1 Kg 11.2 1.6 10.9 1.6 6 Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) 1 Kg 93.1 7.3 85.1 -1.1 7 Milk Fresh (Un-Boiled) 1 Liter 21.6 0.7 13.5 0.3 8 Eggs Farm Dozen 42.4 -0.8 46.1 0.8 9 Vegetable Ghee Dalda/Habib Or Other Superior Quality 1 Kg Pouch Each 22.9 2.3 22.0 2.1 10 Pulse Masoor (Washed) 1 Kg -10.2 -0.3 -2.3 -2.6 11 Pulse Moong (Washed) 1 Kg -16.6 -1.6 -14.7 -1.7 12 Pulse Mash (Washed) 1 Kg 5.7 0.8 7.6 0.0 13 Pulse Gram 1 Kg -7.1 -0.7 -3.2 -0.4 14 Potatoes 1 Kg 9.6 16.4 12.3 12.4 15 Onions 1 Kg -39.6 -8.3 -43.5 -14.5 16 Tomatoes 1 Kg 81.5 67.7 60.0 55.5 17 Sugar Refined 1 Kg 18.2 -1.8 16.5 -3.1 18 Garlic (Lehsun) 1 Kg -36.4 -14.8 -28.9 -10.6 19 Ginger (Adrak) 500 Gm 6.7 17.2 3.8 14.3 20 Tea Lipton Yellow Label 190 Gm Packet Each 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 *Superior Quality for Urban CPI Basket and Average Quality for Rural CPI Basket
  25. State Bank of Pakistan   10. Inflation in Global Context In global context, Pakistan’s inflation in comparison with inflation in selected developed and emerging economies is given in figure 10.1. Fig 10.1: Inflation (YoY) in Global Context Pakistan Inflation in comparison with Inflation in Developed Economies* US Euro Area Japan UK Pakistan (RHS) 9 16 8 14 Percent 7 6 12 5 10 4 8 3 2 6 1 4 0 2 -1 0 Percent 32 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 -2 Pakistan Inflation in comparison with Inflation in Emerging Economies* China Thailand India Bangladesh Sri Lanka Pakistan (RHS) Argentina (RHS) Iran (RHS) Turkey (RHS) Nigeria (RHS) 70.0 24 60.0 20 50.0 16 40.0 12 30.0 8 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 0.0 Aug-21 -4 Jul-21 10.0 Jun-21 0 May-21 20.0 Apr-21 4 Sources: Bloomberg, Havor Analytics, Trading Economics, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics * Japan, UK, China, India, Bangladesh, Argentina and Nigeria has not released Inflation data for the months of April, 2022 as per Trading Economics/Bloomberg/Haver analytics. Note for the readers: Inflation rates in countries such as Sri Lanka (29.8%), Argentina (55.1%), Iran (35.6%), Nigeria (15.9%) and Turkey (70.0%) are higher than that of inflation in Pakistan (13.4%).     80.0 28 19
  26.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 11. Global Commodity Prices Global commodity prices and various group indices have a relation with domestic inflation. In this context, changes in major global commodity prices and indices along with price trends are given in table 11.1 and figure 11.1. Table 11.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent) Apr-21 Item/ Group Mar-22 Apr-22 YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Food 40.0 3.9 36.5 11.3 32.6 1.0 Metals 68.6 4.1 37.5 7.9 28.7 -2.5 Energy 155.4 0.0 102.1 24.3 89.7 -6.1 Agricultural 30.6 2.4 28.0 7.0 26.5 1.3 Cotton 42.8 -0.8 54.3 2.0 71.2 10.1   Figure 11.1: Global Commodity Prices Growth (YoY) in Commodity Prices - Nominal US Dollars Rice Wheat Sugar Palm OIl Soyabean Oil 150 130 110 Percent 90 70 50 30 10 -10 -30 Growth (YoY) in Commodity Price Indices - (2010=100) Energy Index Metal Index Food Index 200 150 100 Percent 50 0 -50 Source: World Bank Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 -100 Apr-21 20
  27.   State Bank of Pakistan 12. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because these eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Indices (National CPI, Urban CPI and Rural CPI) from July 2008 to April 2022 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking trading-day or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 12.1 reveals that seasonality in all CPI series has been increasing over the period. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to March and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimate on historical data and that the future data may not necessarily show the same seasonal pattern.     21
  28.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Fig. 12.1 (a): Seasonal Factor of National CPI Average Seasonal Factors of National CPI Seasonal Factors of National CPI 97 Apr-22 97 Jan-22 98 Oct-21 98 Jul-21 99 Apr-21 99 Jan-21 100 Oct-20 100 Jul-20 101 Apr-20 101 Jan-20 102 Oct-19 102 Jul-19 103 Apr-19 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.0 99.96 100.2 100.9 101.1 100.2 99.77 99.52 99.54 99.99 99.45 99.25 Fig. 12.1 (b): Seasonal Factor of Urban CPI Average Seasonal Factors of Urban CPI Seasonal Factors of Urban CPI 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 Apr-22 Jan-22 Oct-21 Jul-21 Apr-21 Jan-21 Oct-20 Jul-20 Apr-20 Jan-20 Oct-19 Jul-19 Apr-19 97 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.7 100.9 100.0 99.70 99.49 99.50 100.1 99.67 99.37 Fig. 12.1 (c): Seasonal Factor of Rural CPI Average Seasonal Factors of Rural CPI Seasonal Factors of Rural CPI 97 97 Apr-22 98 Jan-22 98 Oct-21 99 Jul-21 99 Apr-21 100 Jan-21 100 Oct-20 101 Jul-20 101 Apr-20 102 Jan-20 102 Oct-19 103 Jul-19 103 Apr-19 22 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 99.82 99.73 100.2 101.2 101.5 100.4 99.86 99.56 99.61 99.77 99.12 99.06
  29. State Bank of Pakistan   Figures 12.2 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 12.2 (a): Seasonal Plot of National CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of National CPI FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of National CPI FY22 FY18 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 12.2 (b): Seasonal Plot of Urban CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of Urban CPI FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of Urban CPI FY22 FY18 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 12.2 (c): Seasonal Plot of Rural CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of Rural CPI FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of Rural CPI FY22 180 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100 Jul     FY18 180 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 23
  30.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Seasonally adjusted Index of National CPI for April 2022 stood at 164.51 against 164.50 in original series showing an increase of 0.01 because of seasonal adjustment. Seasonally adjusted Index of Urban CPI for Fig. 12.3 (a): MoM Changes in National CPI April 2022 stood at 162.39 against 162.63 in MoM % Changes in National CPI Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series original series showing a decrease of 0.24 on 4 account of seasonal adjustment. 3 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 -2 MoM Annualize % Changes in National CPI Original Series 50 Seasonally Adjusted Series 40 30 20 10 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 -10 Sep-21 0 Aug-21 It is pertinent to note that in case of MoM inflation, seasonally adjusted rates provide important information. -1 Jul-21 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Rural CPI series stood at 1.52% reflecting an increase during April 2022 over previous month and an increase of 1.63% in origional series. 0 Jun-21 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Urban CPI series stood at 1.02% reflecting an increase during April 2022 over previous month and an increase of 1.60% in original series. 1 May-21 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted National CPI series stood at 1.22% reflecting an increase during April 2022 over previous month and an increase of 1.62% in original series. 2 Apr-21 Seasonally adjusted Index of Rural CPI for April 2022 stood at 167.69 against 167.31 in original series showing an increase of 0.38 on account of seasonal adjustment. Apr-21 24
  31. State Bank of Pakistan   Fig. 12.3 (b): MoM % Changes in Urban CPI MoM Annualize % Changes in Urban CPI Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Seasonally Adjusted Series Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Apr-21 Apr-22 May-21 -10 Mar-22 -2 Feb-22 0 Jan-22 -1 Dec-21 10 Nov-21 0 Oct-21 20 Sep-21 1 Aug-21 30 Jul-21 2 Jun-21 40 May-21 3 Apr-21 Original Series 50 Jun-21 Seasonally Adjusted Series Oct-21 MoM % Changes in Urabn CPI Original Series 4 Fig. 12.3 (c): MoM % Changes in Rural CPI Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Seasonally Adjusted Series Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-22 -10 Mar-22 -2 Feb-22 0 Jan-22 -1 Dec-21 10 Nov-21 0 Oct-21 20 Sep-21 1 Aug-21 30 Jul-21 2 Jun-21 40 May-21 3 Apr-21     Original Series 50 Apr-21 4 MoM Annualize % Changes in Urban CPI Seasonally Adjusted Series Oct-21 MoM % Changes in Urabn CPI Original Series 25
  32. 26   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 List of Tables Table A0: Inflation – Summary CPI General Period National Urban Core Inflation Food Rural Urban Non-Food Rural Urban WPI SPI** Rural NFNE* Trimmed Urban Rural Urban Rural Year-on-Year Apr-21 11.1 11.0 11.3 15.7 14.1 8.2 8.9 16.6 17.8 7.0 7.7 9.8 10.6 May-21 10.9 10.8 10.9 15.3 12.8 8.3 9.2 19.4 16.9 6.8 7.6 10.0 10.3 Jun-21 9.7 9.6 9.7 11.0 9.8 8.8 9.7 20.9 15.4 6.7 7.3 9.4 9.8 Jul-21 8.4 8.7 8.0 9.4 7.3 8.2 8.7 17.3 12.6 6.9 6.9 9.0 8.4 Aug-21 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.2 9.1 7.2 7.7 17.1 12.7 6.3 6.2 7.8 7.8 Sep-21 9.0 9.1 8.8 10.8 9.1 8.1 8.5 19.6 13.8 6.4 6.2 8.7 8.2 Oct-21 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.4 7.2 9.7 10.0 21.2 14.0 6.7 6.7 8.7 8.2 Nov-21 11.5 12.0 10.9 11.9 8.6 12.0 13.0 27.0 17.4 7.6 8.2 9.8 9.5 Dec-21 12.3 12.7 11.6 11.7 9.0 13.4 14.0 26.2 19.3 8.3 8.9 10.8 10.3 Jan-22 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.3 11.8 12.8 13.9 24.0 19.5 8.2 9.0 10.6 10.9 Feb-22 12.2 11.5 13.3 14.3 14.6 9.9 12.2 23.6 18.1 7.8 9.4 9.8 11.3 Mar-22 12.7 11.9 13.9 14.5 15.5 10.4 12.5 23.8 15.8 8.9 10.3 10.5 11.7 Apr-22 13.4 12.2 15.1 15.6 17.7 10.2 12.8 28.1 16.5 9.1 10.9 10.5 12.8 Month-on-Month Apr-21 1.0 1.3 0.6 2.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 May-21 0.1 0.2 -0.03 1.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 Jun-21 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 Jul-21 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Aug-21 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 Sep-21 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 3.7 1.1 1.0 3.2 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 Oct-21 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 1.8 1.9 4.2 3.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 Nov-21 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.1 1.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 Dec-21 -0.02 0.3 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 2.0 1.9 -0.2 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Jan-22 0.4 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.6 -0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.1 Feb-22 1.2 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 0.2 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 Mar-22 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.3 -0.1 -0.2 3.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 Apr-22 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.7 2.8 0.3 0.5 3.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 * Non-Food Non-Energy, ** SPI for all income groups combined    
  33. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A1: National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) Groups Weights MoM change YoY change 34.6 1.0 8.6 Apr-21 2.2 -0.1 1.1 Mar-22 2.3 0.0 1.0 Apr-22 3.7 3.1 2.1 Apr-21 15.9 4.9 11.9 Mar-22 15.3 1.8 9.7 Apr-22 17.0 5.1 10.8 23.6 0.5 -2.2 -0.7 9.7 8.3 7.1 4.1 0.9 1.4 1.6 9.5 13.8 14.7 Health 2.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 9.0 10.0 10.4 Transport Communication 5.9 2.2 -1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 6.5 1.5 26.3 2.6 28.3 1.6 Recreation & Culture 1.6 0.1 1.3 0.4 4.6 9.3 9.7 Education 3.8 0.5 4.7 0.6 1.6 8.3 8.4 Restaurants & Hotels 6.9 0.2 0.9 0.2 8.2 14.6 14.6 4.9 0.4 1.6 0.8 10.0 12.4 12.8 100.0 1.0 0.8 1.6 11.1 12.7 13.4 Food & Non-Alcoholic Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Miscellaneous Overall National CPI Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) MoM change YoY change Weights Groups Apr-21 Mar-22 Apr-22 Apr-21 Mar-22 Apr-22 I. Food Group 36.8 2.7 1.8 3.7 15.7 14.5 15.6 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.4 3.2 2.1 4.3 17.0 14.8 16.0 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels (Food C ) Group II. Non-Food 0.9 5.5 63.2 8.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.9 3.3 0.3 0.3 2.0 6.0 10.4 8.2 12.7 1.5 15.0 10.4 9.6 4.8 15.0 10.2 10.5 27.0 0.7 -2.2 -0.6 9.3 7.1 5.6 4.1 0.8 1.1 1.6 8.6 12.6 13.5 2.3 6.1 2.4 1.7 4.9 0.5 -1.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 5.7 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.4 6.8 2.0 3.2 1.2 10.0 26.3 3.3 8.7 9.0 10.3 28.6 2.0 8.9 9.2 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 13.0 13.0 4.8 100.0 0.6 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.7 1.6 9.8 11.0 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.2 Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurants & Hotels (Non-food Component) Miscellaneous Overall Urban CPI     27
  34. 28   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) Groups Weights I. Food Group Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco Restaurants and Hotels (Food Component) II. Non-Food Group Clothing and Footwear Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels Furnishing and Household Equip. Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation and Culture Education Restaurants and Hotels (Non-Food Component) Miscellaneous Rural CPI     MoM Change YoY Change Apr-21 Mar-22 Apr-22 Apr-21 Mar-22 Apr-22 45.9 40.9 1.3 3.8 54.1 9.5 18.5 0.9 1.0 -0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 2.3 2.5 0.0 1.1 -0.2 1.1 -2.3 2.8 3.1 2.8 0.4 0.5 2.3 -0.8 14.1 14.7 3.7 11.6 8.9 10.8 10.7 15.5 15.9 2.3 15.3 12.5 9.8 11.1 17.7 18.2 5.5 15.4 12.8 11.3 10.3 4.1 0.9 1.7 1.6 10.8 15.6 16.4 3.5 5.6 2.0 1.4 2.1 2.4 5.0 0.5 -1.2 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.0 8.6 6.1 0.8 7.0 2.9 0.6 10.3 10.0 26.2 1.1 10.5 5.6 13.4 13.1 10.4 27.9 0.8 11.0 5.1 13.3 13.9 100.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 11.3 13.9 15.1
  35. State Bank of Pakistan   29 Table A4: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) – April 2022 Items/Contributors Weights A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 Motor Fuel 2 House Rent 3 Milk Fresh 4 Readymade Food 5 Cooking Oil 6 Vegetable Ghee 7 Meat 8 Wheat Flour 9 Fresh Fruits 10 Education 2.91 19.26 7.11 5.52 1.10 1.03 2.04 3.01 1.44 4.88 Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 Tomatoes 2 Liquefied Hydrocarbons 3 Mustard Oil 4 Onions 5 Cooking Oil 6 Vegetable Ghee 7 Pulse Masoor 8 Motor Fuel 9 Gram Whole 10 Fresh Fruits 48.30 Total C. Ranked by Weights 1 House Rent 2 Milk Fresh 3 Readymade Food 4 Education 5 Electricity Charges 6 Wheat Flour 7 Appliances/Articles/Products For Personal 8 Motor Fuel 9 Cotton Cloth 10 Meat 8.19 0.35 0.51 0.01 0.59 1.10 1.03 0.16 2.91 0.09 1.44 19.26 7.11 5.52 4.88 4.56 3.01 2.98 2.91 2.22 2.04 YoY Change Apr-21 Apr-22 9.10 6.21 20.37 10.39 19.23 21.05 10.07 16.92 3.63 1.19 39.23 5.58 12.32 15.01 60.07 58.71 25.64 18.34 30.64 9.24 Weighted Contribution (%) 9.73 8.38 6.93 6.66 6.52 6.24 4.73 4.24 3.96 3.73 61.12 81.49 5.27 24.44 -39.57 19.23 21.05 -10.20 9.10 -3.00 3.63 124.68 78.96 61.72 61.64 60.07 58.71 40.29 39.23 30.85 30.64 3.00 3.18 0.07 1.64 6.52 6.24 0.40 9.73 0.21 3.96 34.95 6.21 20.37 10.39 1.19 29.06 16.92 11.24 9.10 16.56 10.07 5.58 12.32 15.01 9.24 -1.53 18.34 9.52 39.23 12.46 25.64 8.38 6.93 6.66 3.73 -0.55 4.24 2.27 9.73 2.35 4.73 54.49 48.47 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in Urban CPI, which is 12.2 percent in April 2022.        
  36. 30   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Mar-22 Apr-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fresh Fruits Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Cooking Oil House Rent Onions Vegetable Ghee Wheat Flour Milk Fresh Meat Total 1.44 15.17 1.53 -0.29 0.35 -36.53 1.10 5.05 19.26 0.00 0.59 7.01 1.03 8.32 3.01 -1.08 7.11 1.52 2.04 0.81 37.46 B. Ranked by Percentage Change 21.07 14.41 51.53 11.35 1.12 42.83 8.26 3.45 1.27 3.25 20.36 13.85 12.74 12.25 12.11 8.95 8.90 6.32 5.50 5.05 106.03 0.35 -36.53 0.59 7.01 1.44 15.17 1.53 -0.29 1.10 5.05 1.03 8.32 1.07 0.57 0.09 2.11 0.81 1.76 0.01 0.42 8.02 C. Ranked by Weights 51.53 42.83 21.07 14.41 11.35 8.26 6.37 5.67 5.42 4.50 12.74 8.95 20.36 13.85 12.25 8.90 4.18 0.32 2.91 0.02 84.48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tomatoes Onions Fresh Fruits Fresh Vegetables Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Tailoring Gram Whole Motor Vehicles Major Tools & Equipments Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Rent Milk Fresh Readymade Food Education Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Appliances/Articles/Products For l Motor Fuel 19.26 0.00 1.12 12.11 7.11 1.52 1.27 5.50 5.52 0.84 0.25 0.88 4.88 5.65 0.55 1.66 4.56 -13.40 -7.84 -20.79 3.01 -1.08 3.45 6.32 2.98 1.36 0.65 1.18 2.91 -1.95 0.10 0.23 Cotton Cloth 2.22 1.42 2.05 2.94 Meat 2.04 0.81 3.25 5.05 Total 54.49 15.08 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in MoM change in Urban CPI, which is 1.6 percent in April 2022.    
  37. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-21 Apr-22 2.91 19.26 7.11 5.52 1.10 1.03 2.04 3.01 1.44 4.88 0.51 0.35 1.53 1.75 2.22 54.66 9.10 6.21 20.37 10.39 19.23 21.05 10.07 16.92 3.63 1.19 5.27 81.49 11.45 3.35 16.56 39.23 5.58 12.32 15.01 60.07 58.71 25.64 18.34 30.64 9.24 78.96 124.68 19.15 20.32 12.46 9.73 8.38 6.93 6.66 6.52 6.24 4.73 4.24 3.96 3.73 3.18 3.00 2.55 2.50 2.35 74.70 1.33 0.51 0.45 1.11 4.56 0.17 0.07 1.08 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.05 9.46 31.62 42.41 9.97 18.20 29.06 -16.57 0.00 0.00 8.77 10.35 8.53 15.06 1.91 8.50 0.00 -16.31 -19.42 -20.73 -9.67 -1.53 -25.94 0.00 0.00 5.39 1.45 5.75 14.83 7.70 7.47 7.62 -2.59 -1.06 -1.00 -0.94 -0.55 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 -6.42 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Motor Fuel House Rent Milk Fresh Readymade Food Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Meat Wheat Flour Fresh Fruits Education Liquefied Hydrocarbons Tomatoes Fresh Vegetables Transport Services Cotton Cloth Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Condiments And Spices Eggs Potatoes Sugar Electricity Charges Pulse Moong Newspapers Gas Charges Therapeutic Appliances And Postal Services Dental Services Major Tools & Equipments Carpets Dessert Preparation Motor Vehicle Tax Total         31
  38. 32   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Mar-22 Apr-22 1.44 1.53 0.35 1.10 19.26 0.59 1.03 3.01 7.11 2.04 1.07 2.22 0.81 1.00 0.72 43.28 15.17 -0.29 -36.53 5.05 0.00 7.01 8.32 -1.08 1.52 0.81 0.57 1.42 1.76 1.55 0.00 21.07 14.41 51.53 11.35 1.12 42.83 8.26 3.45 1.27 3.25 6.37 2.05 5.42 3.88 4.39 20.36 13.85 12.74 12.25 12.11 8.95 8.90 6.32 5.50 5.05 4.18 2.94 2.91 2.37 1.73 120.16 4.56 1.36 0.51 1.75 1.11 0.42 0.09 0.33 0.61 0.31 0.04 0.39 0.12 0.17 0.07 11.84 -13.40 33.63 7.79 5.69 -1.02 -0.09 3.80 0.22 -4.89 7.07 -1.10 -0.76 -0.09 -0.70 0.00 -7.84 -9.40 -3.75 -0.97 -0.70 -1.00 -3.28 -0.57 -0.25 -0.55 -1.23 -0.07 -0.13 -0.01 0.00 -20.79 -10.35 -1.94 -1.00 -0.43 -0.23 -0.22 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -35.33 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh Fruits Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Cooking Oil House Rent Onions Vegetable Ghee Wheat Flour Milk Fresh Meat Tailoring Cotton Cloth Motor Vehicles Household Equipments Cigarettes Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity Charges Chicken Liquefied Hydrocarbons Transport Services Sugar Solid Fuel Wheat Products Dry Fruits Wheat Milk Powder Gur Fish Pulse Mash Pulse Moong Newspapers Total    
  39. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Mar-22 Apr-22 1.44 1.53 0.35 1.10 0.59 1.03 3.01 7.11 2.04 0.72 5.52 0.64 1.33 0.45 0.09 26.95 15.17 -0.29 -36.53 5.05 7.01 8.32 -1.08 1.52 0.81 0.00 0.84 0.87 -2.38 -3.68 2.11 21.07 14.41 51.53 11.35 42.83 8.26 3.45 1.27 3.25 4.39 0.25 1.87 0.46 1.43 5.67 20.36 13.85 12.74 12.25 8.95 8.90 6.32 5.50 5.05 1.73 0.88 0.74 0.42 0.37 0.32 98.38 1.36 1.11 0.09 0.33 0.61 0.31 0.04 0.39 0.12 0.17 0.14 0.10 0.04 0.10 0.01 4.93 33.63 -1.02 3.80 0.22 -4.89 7.07 -1.10 -0.76 -0.09 -0.70 0.28 0.03 0.77 0.37 8.73 -9.40 -0.70 -3.28 -0.57 -0.25 -0.55 -1.23 -0.07 -0.13 -0.01 0.00 0.15 0.55 0.27 2.31 -10.35 -0.43 -0.22 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 -11.30 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh fruits Fresh vegetables Tomatoes Cooking oil Onions Vegetable ghee Wheat flour Milk fresh Meat Cigarettes Readymade food Milk products Condiments and Spices Potatoes Gram whole Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Chicken Sugar Wheat products Dry fruits Wheat Milk powder Gur Fish Pulse mash Pulse moong Pan prepared Honey Dessert preparation Ice cream Mustard oil Total         33
  40. 34   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Mar-22 Apr-22 19.26 1.07 2.22 0.81 1.00 4.88 1.41 2.98 0.41 1.32 0.94 1.07 0.38 0.40 0.48 38.64 0.00 0.57 1.42 1.76 1.55 5.65 1.01 1.36 0.47 0.26 3.53 1.47 2.00 0.54 2.53 1.12 6.37 2.05 5.42 3.88 0.55 1.36 0.65 4.41 1.37 0.81 0.82 1.84 1.08 0.95 12.11 4.18 2.94 2.91 2.37 1.66 1.24 1.18 1.08 1.03 0.66 0.58 0.46 0.35 0.27 33.04 4.56 0.51 1.75 0.42 0.07 1.88 0.05 1.08 0.02 0.43 0.57 0.13 0.01 0.03 0.02 11.52 -13.40 7.79 5.69 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 3.28 0.33 0.16 0.10 -7.84 -3.75 -0.97 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.58 -20.79 -1.94 -1.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -23.96 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 House rent Tailoring Cotton cloth Motor vehicles Household equipments Education Washing soap/detergents/match Appliances/Articles/Products for Hosiry Readymade garments Personal Effects n.e.c. Drugs and medicines Construction input items Doctor (MBBS) clinic fee Furniture and furnishing Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity charges Liquefied Hydrocarbons Transport services Solid Fuel Newspapers Communication Services Motor vehicle tax Gas charges Postal services Woolen readymade garments Hospitals services Accommodation Services Therapeutic Appliances and Carpets Dental services Total    
  41. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-21 Apr-22 2.38 10.38 2.49 4.48 0.51 3.43 3.80 1.45 1.00 2.09 32.01 21.38 13.48 9.87 9.18 60.03 19.33 11.64 -1.30 0.81 6.87 62.22 12.17 38.47 15.74 169.87 18.82 15.40 39.20 64.64 27.14 13.10 7.66 6.53 4.54 4.22 4.20 4.09 4.06 3.83 3.74 55.97 0.51 0.90 1.00 0.60 2.38 0.01 0.21 0.11 1.45 2.49 9.66 60.03 -43.53 0.81 23.29 21.38 23.71 -2.34 -1.14 -1.30 9.87 169.87 77.72 64.64 63.94 62.22 59.23 45.30 39.49 39.20 38.47 4.22 2.25 3.83 3.30 13.10 0.06 0.48 0.25 4.06 6.53 38.08 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vegetable Ghee Milk Fresh Motor Fuels Solid Fuel Tomatoes Wheat Flour Readymade Food Fresh Fruits Liquefied Hydrocarbons Fresh Vegetables Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tomatoes Onions Liquefied Hydrocarbons Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Mustard Oil Pulse Masoor Gram Whole Fresh Fruits Motor Fuels Total C. Ranked by Weights 10.38 13.48 12.17 7.66 8.61 6.58 5.73 3.12 4.48 9.18 15.74 4.54 3.80 11.64 15.40 4.09 3.47 24.48 14.10 3.48 3.44 29.06 -1.53 -0.34 3.43 19.33 18.82 4.20 2.84 13.41 11.76 2.55 2.49 9.87 38.47 6.53 2.38 21.38 62.22 13.10 45.32 48.93 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in Rural CPI, which is 15.1 percent in April 2022. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10       Milk Fresh House Rent Solid Fuel Readymade Food Wheat Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Cotton Cloth Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee   35
  42. 36   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Mar-22 Apr-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fresh Fruits Tomatoes Vegetable Ghee Onions Fresh Vegetables Cotton Cloth Milk Fresh House Rent Rice Meat Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tomatoes Onions Fresh Fruits Fresh Vegetables Vegetable Ghee Gram Whole Major Tools And Equipments Cotton Cloth Beans Tailoring Total C. Ranked by Weights 16.67 -33.87 10.30 6.50 4.65 2.34 1.16 0.00 0.43 1.08 26.47 62.18 5.60 50.38 6.27 3.95 0.92 0.98 2.72 2.41 24.63 20.97 14.77 14.05 8.43 7.50 5.25 4.55 3.15 3.03 106.33 0.51 0.90 1.45 2.09 2.38 0.11 0.03 2.84 0.09 1.30 11.70 -33.87 6.50 16.67 4.65 10.30 1.74 0.13 2.34 2.83 0.04 62.18 50.38 26.47 6.27 5.60 5.48 4.38 3.95 3.64 3.60 20.97 14.05 24.63 8.43 14.77 0.37 0.07 7.50 0.24 2.74 93.77 10.38 1.16 0.92 5.25 8.61 0.00 0.98 4.55 4.48 -0.20 0.55 1.50 3.80 1.14 0.44 1.10 3.47 -2.39 -2.44 -5.73 3.44 -13.40 -7.84 -14.95 3.43 -1.32 0.63 1.36 2.84 2.34 3.95 7.50 2.49 -2.24 0.12 0.22 2.38 10.30 5.60 14.77 45.32 15.57 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in MoM change in Rural CPI, which is 1.6 percent in April 2022. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10   Milk Fresh House Rent Solid Fuel Readymade Food Wheat Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Cotton Cloth Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee 1.45 0.51 2.38 0.90 2.09 2.84 10.38 8.61 1.55 1.71 32.42  
  43. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) Apr-21 Apr-22 2.38 10.38 2.49 4.48 0.51 3.43 3.80 1.45 1.00 2.09 3.47 0.60 1.71 8.61 1.80 48.20 21.38 13.48 9.87 9.18 60.03 19.33 11.64 -1.30 0.81 6.87 24.48 23.29 10.86 6.58 2.42 62.22 12.17 38.47 15.74 169.87 18.82 15.40 39.20 64.64 27.14 14.10 63.94 26.19 5.73 24.81 13.10 7.66 6.53 4.54 4.22 4.20 4.09 4.06 3.83 3.74 3.48 3.30 3.29 3.12 2.56 71.72 1.49 0.74 2.03 0.57 0.25 3.44 0.02 0.01 0.14 0.02 0.01 0.01 1.65 0.02 0.06 10.46 13.72 12.53 16.51 46.14 -14.66 29.06 0.00 0.00 0.03 2.40 4.89 11.56 0.69 7.84 36.99 -14.82 -18.97 -8.09 -19.50 -26.93 -1.53 -5.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.66 7.99 0.09 7.92 1.63 -1.90 -1.21 -1.15 -0.94 -0.48 -0.34 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -5.98 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Vegetable Ghee Milk Fresh Motor Fuels Solid Fuel Tomatoes Wheat Flour Readymade Food Fresh Fruits Liquefied Hydrocarbons Fresh Vegetables Wheat Cooking Oil Meat House Rent Transport Services Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Condiments And Spices Potatoes Sugar Eggs Pulse Moong Electricity Charges Motor Vehicle Tax Postal Services Accommodation Services Newspapers Garbage Collection Dessert Preparation Communication Services Dental Services Water Supply Total         37
  44. 38   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Mar-22 Apr-22 1.45 0.51 2.38 0.90 2.09 2.84 10.38 8.61 1.55 1.71 1.30 1.28 1.24 0.60 4.48 41.32 16.67 -33.87 10.30 6.50 4.65 2.34 1.16 0.00 0.43 1.08 0.04 1.73 0.00 12.35 -0.20 26.47 62.18 5.60 50.38 6.27 3.95 0.92 0.98 2.72 2.41 3.60 2.42 2.93 2.54 0.55 24.63 20.97 14.77 14.05 8.43 7.50 5.25 4.55 3.15 3.03 2.74 1.90 1.84 1.71 1.50 116.02 3.44 1.46 3.47 2.03 0.57 1.49 1.00 0.25 0.15 1.80 0.74 0.28 0.02 0.14 0.02 16.86 -13.40 33.34 -2.39 0.13 -13.97 0.77 5.58 -0.23 -1.20 3.65 -3.78 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.84 -9.26 -2.44 -1.48 -4.51 -0.38 -0.34 -1.52 -1.76 -0.11 -0.14 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 -14.95 -10.75 -5.73 -1.60 -1.49 -0.34 -0.27 -0.16 -0.15 -0.11 -0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -35.62 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Fresh Fruits Tomatoes Vegetable Ghee Onions Fresh Vegetables Cotton Cloth Milk Fresh House Rent Rice Meat Tailoring Household Equipments Cigarettes Cooking Oil Solid Fuel Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity Charges Chicken Wheat Sugar Eggs Condiments And Spices Liquefied Hydrocarbons Pulse Moong Gur Transport Services Potatoes Pulse Gram Motor Vehicle Tax Accommodation Services Newspapers Total    
  45. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Mar-22 Apr-22 1.45 0.51 2.38 0.90 2.09 10.38 1.55 1.71 1.24 0.60 3.43 3.80 0.96 1.26 0.11 32.37 16.67 -33.87 10.30 6.50 4.65 1.16 0.43 1.08 0.00 12.35 -1.32 1.14 0.65 2.33 1.74 26.47 62.18 5.60 50.38 6.27 0.92 2.72 2.41 2.93 2.54 0.63 0.44 1.42 0.83 5.48 24.63 20.97 14.77 14.05 8.43 5.25 3.15 3.03 1.84 1.71 1.36 1.10 0.73 0.60 0.37 102.01 1.46 3.47 2.03 0.57 1.49 0.25 0.15 0.74 0.28 0.04 0.26 0.25 0.03 0.11 0.01 11.15 33.34 -2.39 0.13 -13.97 0.77 -0.23 -1.20 -3.78 0.19 0.00 0.46 0.25 0.00 1.35 2.04 -9.26 -2.44 -1.48 -4.51 -0.38 -1.52 -1.76 -0.14 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.31 0.15 1.41 -10.75 -5.73 -1.60 -1.49 -0.34 -0.16 -0.15 -0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 -20.28 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Fresh fruits Tomatoes Vegetable ghee Onions Fresh Vegetables Milk fresh Rice Meat Cigarettes Cooking oil Wheat Flour Readymade Food Milk products Tea Gram Whole Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15     Chicken Wheat Sugar Eggs Condiments and Spices Pulse Moong Gur Potatoes Pulse Gram Pan Prepared Fish Dry fruits Honey Milk powder Dessert Preparation Total 39
  46. 40   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in April 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Mar-22 Apr-22 2.84 8.61 1.30 1.28 4.48 1.58 2.27 1.54 1.70 2.13 1.92 0.43 0.63 1.13 1.10 32.94 2.34 0.00 0.04 1.73 -0.20 -0.94 0.89 0.72 2.47 1.11 0.26 0.26 3.34 1.74 0.68 3.95 0.98 3.60 2.42 0.55 1.36 1.09 1.20 1.16 0.96 0.92 2.47 2.30 1.20 0.88 7.50 4.55 2.74 1.90 1.50 1.37 1.33 1.22 1.20 1.09 0.95 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.57 28.34 3.44 1.00 1.80 0.14 0.02 1.65 0.01 0.02 0.54 0.01 0.02 0.37 2.25 0.02 0.40 11.68 -13.40 5.58 3.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.31 3.35 1.34 2.24 0.76 -7.84 -0.34 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.11 -14.95 -0.27 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 -15.30 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Cotton Cloth House Rent Tailoring Household Equipments Solid Fuel Drugs and Medicines Appliances/Articles/Products for Personal Grooming Services Washing Soaps, Detergents and Education Footware Hosiry Construction Input Items Readymade Garments Woolen Cloth Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15   Electricity Charges Liquefied Hydrocarbons Transport Services Accommodation Services Newspapers Communication Services Postal Services Motor Vehicle Tax Woolen Readymade Garments Garbage Collection Dental Services Stationery Marriage Hall Charges Cleaning and Laundering Medical Tests Total  
  47. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: April 2022 Furnishing & Housing, Water, Household Equip. Elec, Gas & other Maintenance etc Fuels Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic & Beverages Tobacco Groups Decrease or no change Subdued increase (Greater Moderate increase than 0% but less than 5%) (5% but less than 10%) Milk Tetra Pack 1 Litre (Milk Pak/Haleeb/Olpers), Cold Drink (Pepsi/Coca-Cola) 1.5 Liter Bottle, Rice Irri-6/9 (Sindh/Punjab), Fish Rahu (Medium Size), Suji, Custard Pan Prepared (Sweet With Beetle Nuts), Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20'S Packet, Rice Basmati 385/386, Pulse Gram, Mineral Water Nestle 1.5 Liter, Groundnuts (Moong Phali) With Shell, Vermicelli (Packet), Curd, Besan, Tea Lipton Yellow Label 190 Gm Packet, Fruit Juice Small Packet 250 Cheetah 50 Size 3-5 Servis, Ladies Full Pant Boy Length 24"/26", Shoe Sponge Chappal Bata, Gents Shoes Repair Full Sole, Shirt Boy Length Servis, Children Shoes Power Lite Bata, 24"/26", Linen, Ladies (Average Quality), Dopatta Cotton (Average Quality), Pullover Gents Oxford/Bonanza, Awami Suit Gents Wash & Wear (Average Quality), Dopatta Geogette (Average Quality), Women Shalwar Kameez (Average Quality), Gents Sandal Bata, Lawn Printed Gul Ahmed/Al Karam, Pant Cloth Wash & Wear (Average Quality), Brassier (Average Quality), Charges For Refuse/Waste Collection, House Rent Combined, Cement Blocks (6"X8"X12"), Synthetic Enamel Ici Balti 3.64 Litre, Sand (Black Pit), Chaddar (Wash-N-Wear) (2X2.5 Meter), Tailoring Charges Awami Suit (Male), School Uniform Boys (Pant & Shirt) 24"/26", School Uniform Girls (Kameez & Shalwar) 24"/26", Tailoring Charges Pant (Men), Vest "Baniyan" For Men Average Quality, Tailoring Charges Simple Suit (Female), Heavy Weight Suiting Lawrance Pur (Average Quality), Pullover Ladies Mason Wage Rate, Electrician Charges, Firewood Whole, Plumber Wage Rate, Bajri, Unskilled Labor Wage Rate, Cement (Local) 50 Kg Bag, Iron Bars (M.S. Bar) 1/2 " 40 Grade, Lpg 11.67 Kg Cylinder, Phenyl Tyfon/Finis 2.75 Litre Bottle, Finis 400 Ml Bottle, Towel Medium Size (3' X 2'), Boot Polish Cherry/Kiwi 42 Ml, Bed Sheet Double With Two Pillow Covers (Superior Quality), Dining Table Wit Glass Top And Six Chairs (Average Quality), Sugar Test (Random/Fasting) Charges Of Both, Ventolin Tablets 2 Mg, Johar Joshanda Instant (Sachet) Packet, Blood Test (Cp) Charges, Gynecologist Fee Per Visit, Dental Surgeon Fee Per Visit, Daonil Tablets 5 Mg, Electronic Bp Checking Apparatus, Train Fare Business Class Per Person, Cot Iron (Charpai), Blanket Single (Sn), Chair Plastic (Chairman) (Average Quality), Bed Sheet Single (Superior Quality), Sewing Machine (Sn) Without Cover, Energy Saver Philips 14 Watt, Plain Carpet, Cleanser Powder Vim 900 Gm Ecg Charges, Glucometer, Dettol Medium Bottle, Flagyl Tablets 400 Mg, Dental Extraction Fee, Amoxil Capsule 250 Mg, Physiotherapist Fee Per Visit, Cost Of Surgery (CSection), Cac 1000 Tablets Sandoz Bottle, Phenergan Syrup 120 Ml Mini Bus Fare Minimum Within City, Car Toyota 1300 Cc Xli, Motorcycle Service Charges, Car Tax 800 Cc To 1500 Cc, Bucket (Balti) Plastic Medium Size, Match Box, Washing Machine With Spinner (Super Asia Or Similar Brand) (Sn), Lota Plastic Medium Size (Average Quality), Sofa Set Five Seater, Refrigerator Dawlance/Pel 10 Cubic Feet Double Door, Dinner Set Plastic 72 Pieces Super Quality, Lederplex Syrup Bottle, Glaxose-D 400 Gm Packet, Entox Tablets, Doctor (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Inderal Tablets 10 Mg, X-Ray (Chest) Charges, Betnovate-N Ointment 10 Gm Tube, Urine Test (Dr) Charges, Ultrasound Abdominal, Panadol Tablets Plain, Train Fare Ac Sleeper Per Person, Bus Fare Minimum Within City, Train Fare Ac Lower Per Person, Auto Rickshaw Fare, Mini Bus Fare Maximum Within City, Taxi Four Seater Fare, Tire Car Mehran Tubeless (General), Car Service Charges, Mobil Oil (Havoline 20W-50), Suzuki Fare Minimum Courier Charges Minimum Within Zone Outside City (Tcs), Internet Charges (Dsl) 1 Mb (Unlimited), Personal Computer With Led Monitor (17") Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, Cable Charges, Urdu Book Ba/B.Sc, English Book Ba/B.Sc, Laptop Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, Display (14'-15'), Mobile Set With Rear Camera And Without Touch Screen, Electricity Charges 51-100 Units, Electricity Charges Upto 50 Units, Electricity Charges 101-300 Units, Electricity Charges Combined, Electricity Charges 301-700 Units, Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Mmbtu , Gas Charges 3.3719 - 6.7438 Mmbtu Health Electricity Charges Above 700 Units, Water Charges Per House, Bricks New 1St Class, Painter Wage Rate, Mobile Call Charges, Telephone Call Charges, Newspaper Daily Dawn, Newspaper Daily Jang, Akhbar-E-Jehan Weekly, Mag The Weekly (Magazine), Miscellaneous Restaurant & Hotels Education Recreation & Culture Commu nication Transport Car Suzuki 800 Cc Without Ac,       more) Chilies Powder National 200 Gm Packet, Turmeric Powder National 50 Gm Ginger (Adrak), Pulse Moong (Washed), Packet, Coriander Seed Powder National Potatoes, Eggs Farm, Peas (Matar), 200 Gm Packet, Chicken Farm Broiler Sugar Refined, Cardamom Small (Live), Jam-E-Shireen Standard Size (Average Quality), Cumin Seed (Zeera) (800 Ml), Pepper Black National 50 Gm Cigarettes Capstan 20'S Packet, Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml Bottle,   Double digit increase (10% or   Led Sony/Samsung 32" Colored, English Book Class Vi, Mathematics Book Class Ix And X (Text Book Board), Lead Pencil Goldfish, Ballpoint Pen Local, Mathematics Book Class Xi (Text Book Board), Exercise Book (With Lines) 80 To 100 Pages, Urdu Book Class Ix And X (Text Book Board), Mathematics Book Class V (Text Book Board), English Book Class Xi Complete Set, English Book Class Ix And X, Pen Ink Dollar 57 Ml Bottle, Recreational Park Charges (Minimum Government College Fee First Year, Tuition Fee Private University Private School Fee English Medium Private College Fee First Year, M.Sc./M.A, Government Medical Average Standard (Class V), Private School Government University Fee M.S.C / College/University Tuition Fee For Fee English Medium Average Standard M.A., Coaching Fee For Class Ix/X Mbbs (1St Year), (Class I), Private School Fee English Science Group, Coaching Fee For Class Medium Average Standard (Class Vi), Government Hostel Accommodation Fee Pizza Chicken Medium Size Burger With Shami Kabab (Average For Intermediate College Per Student, (Average Quality), Quality), Seekh Kabab (Beef) (Average Quality), Cooked Chicken At Average Hotel, Marriage Hall Charges With Furniture, Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Marriage Hall Service Charges With Food Wall Clock Quartz (Average Quality), Toilet Soap Lux 75 Gm, Pampers Hair Cut Charges For Men, Hair Removing Purse Ladies Medium Size (Average (Medium Size), Hair Style Charges Cream (Eu-Cream) 30Ml Tube, Toilet Soap Quality), Face Cream Ponds Medium (At Average Beauty Parlor), Tissue Lifebuoy 115 Gm, Disposable Razor Size (Cold), Lipstick Swiss Miss/Medora Paper Perfumed Box 100 Napkins, Gillette Blue Ii, Electric Hair Straightener (Medium), Tooth Brush (Shield), Artificial Jewelry (Locket Set) (Philips), Blade Treet Ordinary (10 No. (Average Quality), Shampoo Sun Packet), Shaving Cream (Touchme Silk/Pantene 90 Ml Bottle, Suitcase Large/Admiral), Shaving Charges, 41
  48.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: April 2022 Communic ation Transport Health Furnishing & Housing, Water, Household Elec, Gas & Equip. other Fuels Maintenance etc Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Groups Decrease or no change but less than 10%) Double digit increase (10% or more) Pulse Mash (Washed), Chicken Farm Broiler (Live), Gur (Average Quality), Powdered Milk Nido 390 Gm Polybag, Ice Cream Walls Cup (Large Size), Carrot (Gajar), Cold Drink (Pepsi/Coca-Cola) 1.5 Liter Bottle, Fruit Juice Small Packet 250 Chewing Tobacco (Niswar), Almonds (Badam) Kaghazi With Shell (Average Quality), Pulse Gram, Fish Fresh, Curd, Milk Fresh (Un-Boiled), Turmeric Powder Loose, Tea Lipton Yellow Label 190 Gm Packet, Groundnuts (Moong Phali) With Shell, Rusk (Papay) (Average Quality), Rice Basmati Broken (Average Pan Prepared (Sweet With Beetle Nuts), Tobacco Hukka Twisted, Foottware Gents Local (Average Quality), Tailoring Charges Simple Suit (Female), Shirting (Average Quality), School Uniform Girls (Kameez & Shalwar) 24"/26", Dopatta Geogette (Average Quality), Foottware Children Local (Average Quality), Chaddar (Wash-N-Wear) (2X2.5 Meter), Foottware Ladies Local (Average Quality), Lawn Printed (Average Quality), Georgette (Average Quality), Full Pant Boy Length 24"/26", Tailoring Charges Awami Suit (Male), School Uniform Boys (Pant & Shirt) 24"/26", Long Cloth, Linen, Ladies (Average Quality), Pullover Gents (Average Quality), Shirt Boy Length 24"/26", Shoe Electricity Charges 51-100 Units, Electrician Charges, Plumber Wage Rate, House Rent Combined, Bricks New Carpenter Wage Rate, Charges For Electricity Charges Upto 50 Units, Water Charges Per House, Electricity 1St Class, Painter Wage Rate, Electricity Charges 101-300 Units, Refuse/Waste Collection, Sand (Black Pit), Charges Above 1000 Units, Mason Wage Rate, Electricity Charges Combined, Bajri, Unskilled Labor Wage Rate, Electricity Charges 301-1000 Units, Firewood Whole, Coal, Kerosene Oil, Cement (Local) 50 Kg Bag, Lpg 11.67 Kg Cleanser Powder Vim 900 Gm Polybag, Boot Polish Cherry/Kiwi 42 Ml, Energy Saver Philips 14 Watt, Robin Blue Refrigerator Dawlance/Pel 10 Cubic Liquid 75 Ml Bottle, Towel Medium Size Feet Double Door, Finis 400 Ml (2' X 3'), Bucket (Balti) Plastic Medium Bottle, Water Cooler 9/10 Litre Size, Blanket Single (Sn), Sewing Machine Plastic Super Quality, Water Set (Sn) Without Cover, Tube Light Philips 40 (Omroc) 6 Glass, Watt, Washing Machine With Spinner Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml Bottle, Blood Daonil Tablets 5 Mg, Dettol Physiotherapist Fee Per Visit, Doctor Test (Cp) Charges, Cost Of Surgery (C- Medium Bottle, X-Ray (Chest) (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Panadol Tablets Plain, Section), Charges, Dental Surgeon Fee Per Visit, Amoxil Capsule 250 Mg, Johar Joshanda Instant (Sachet) Car Tax 800 Cc To 1500 Cc, Car Suzuki Motorcycle Service Charges, Tire Cycle, Tire Motorcycle Cd 70 (Back 800 Cc Without Ac, Wheel), Chingchi Rickshaw Charges, Minimum, Train Fare Economy Per Person, Mobil Oil (Havoline 20W-50), Motorcycle Honda Cd 70, Bicycle, Tire Car Mehran Tubeless (General), Hi-Speed Diesel, Bus Postal Registration Charges, Mobile Call Internet Charges (Dsl) 1 Mb (Unlimited), Charges, Telephone Call Charges, Mobile Set With Rear Camera And Without Touch Screen, Recreation & Culture Urdu Books Class Ix And X (Text Book Cable Charges, English Books Class Board), Led Sony/Samsung 32" Colored, Ix And X, Personal Computer With English Books Class Xi Complete Set, Led Monitor (17") Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, English Books Class Vi, Private School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class Vi), Private School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class I), Education Restaurant & Hotels Moderate increase (5% than 0% but less than 5%) Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20'S Packet, Cigarettes Capstan 20'S Packet, Newspaper Daily Jang, Government Hostel Accommodation Fee For Intermediate College Per Student, Private Hostel Accommodation Fee For Intermediate College Per Student,   Exercise Book (With Lines) 80 To 100 Pages, Lead Pencil Goldfish, Ballpoint Pen Local, Pets Feed, Urdu Books Class V (Text Book Board), Private School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class V), Vocational Training Basic Computer Short Course Fee (3 Months) , Coaching Fee For Class Ix/X Science Group, Pizza Chicken Medium Size (Average Quality), Chicken Roast (Full) (Average Quality), Toilet Soap Lux 75 Gm, Blade Treet Ordinary (10 No. Packet),     Subdued increase (Greater Ginger (Adrak), Pulse Moong (Washed), Salt Powder Loose, Jam-E-Shireen Chilies Powder Loose, Potatoes, Eggs Standard Size (800 Ml), Peas (Matar), Farm, Sugar Refined, Guava (Amrood) (Average Quality), Cucumber (Kheera), Coriander Seed Powder Loose, Miscellaneous 42 Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Burger With Shami Kabab (Average Quality), Marriage Hall Service Charges With Food (Average Meal), Marriage Hall Charges With Furniture, Cooked Beef At Average Hotel, Tea Prepared Ordinary, Seekh Kabab (Beef) Purse Ladies Medium Size (Average Artificial Jewelry (Locket Set) (Average Quality), Shaving Cream (Touchme Quality), Talcum Powder Viceroy/Black Large/Admiral), Tooth Paste Colgate Cat, Shampoo Sun Silk/Pantene 90 Ml 75 Gm, Suitcase Ragzine Bottle, Hair Removing Cream (Eu-Cream) (24"X16"X6") (Average Quality), 30Ml Tube, Tooth Brush (Shield), Hair Disposable Razor Gillette Blue Ii, Color (Kala Kola), Trunk Medium Size (Average Quality), Shaving Charges, Hair    
  49. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: April 2022 Metal Product, Machinery & Equipments Other Transportable Goods except Metal Products, Machinery and Equipments Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Apparel and Leather Product Ores/Minerals, Elec., Agriculture Forestry & Gas & Water Fisher Product Groups Decrease or no change Stimulant & Spice Crops, Edible Roots / Potatoes, Eggs, Maize, Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Fish Live Fresh or Chilled, Raw Animal Materials / Wool, Poultry, Fuel Wood in Logs, Sorghum / Jowar, Cotton Seeds, Dry Fruits,     Hides, Skins & Fur Skins, Raw, Rice, Millet / Bajra, Natural Gas Liquified, Blankets, Sugar Confectionary, Chocolate, Readymade Garments, Fruit Juices, Dried Fruits & Nuts, Beverages, Other Leather N.E.C, Vegetables & Fruit Juice, Woolen Carpets, Milk & Cream in Solid Form, Processed Liquid Milk, Synthetic Carpets, Ice Cream, Bed Sheets, Dairy Products N.E.C, Towels, Cotton Fabrics, Hosiery Products, Printing Paper, Hard Board, Dyeing Material, Insecticides, Glass sheets, Pesticides, Matches, Other Glass Articles, Plastic Products, Timber, Ceramics & Sanitary Fixture, Bricks, Blocks & Tiles, Vacuum Pumps, Electric Wires,   Double digit increase (10% or more) Raw Milk from Bovine Animals, Unmanufactured Tobacco, Sugar Crops, Wheat, Pulses, Fresh Fruits, Vegetables, Other Oil Seeds, Fiber Crops, Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride, Electrical Energy, Coal not Agglomerated, Spices, Sugar Refined, Other Food Products, Nylon Yarn, Footwears,     Moderate increase (5% but less than 10%) Steel Products, Radio & Television, Fridge,WashM,SewM,Fans,Iron, Engines & Motors, Mineral Water, Blended Yarn, Woven Fabrics, Quilts, Oil Cakes, Other Cereal Flour, Other Fabrics, Coffee & Tea, Tobacco Products, Leather Without Hair, Wheat Flour, Cotton Yarn, Silk & Reyon Fabrics, Paints & Varnishes, Medicines, Mobil Oil, Soaps & Detergents, Auto Tyres, Bed Foam, Cement, Motor Spirit, Diesel Oil, Fertilizers, Kerosene Oil, Chemicals, Furnace Oil, Bicycles, Lighting Equipments, Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles, Lathe Machines, Pipe Fittings, Tractors, Air Conditioners, Steel Bar & Sheets, Concrete Mixture, Cultivators, Chuff Cutter, 43
  50. 44   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices Jun-21 Commodity/Indices Apr-21 Mar-22 Apr-22 Energy 71.8 63.0 112.4 103.4 Crude Oil (US$ per barrel)* 93.9 80.8 163.2 153.3 Energy Index (2010 = 100) Food 466.0 495.0 422.0 431.0 Rice ($/MT) 263.5 281.4 533.1 672.5 Wheat ($/MT)## 17.4 16.2 19.0 19.7 Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ 1,004.4 1,078.1 1,777.0 1,682.7 Palm Oil ($/MT) 1,518.2 1,386.4 1,956.9 1,947.5 Soybean Oil ($/MT) Non-Food Non-Energy 94.5 90.7 141.1 155.3 Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ 119.0 113.5 149.9 146.1 Metal Price Index (2010 = 100) 9,631.5 9,324.8 10,230.9 10,161.4 Copper ($/MT) 2,446.7 2,319.4 3,498.4 3,244.4 Aluminum ($/MT) 214.4 179.8 152.1 151.3 Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) 32,502.6 28,328.4 43,949.7 42,991.1 Tin ($/MT) 17,979.6 16,521.3 33,924.2 33,132.7 Nickel ($/MT) 2,951.9 2,829.0 3,962.2 4,360.4 Zinc ($/MT) 2,191.0 2,011.9 2,344.8 2,380.4 Lead ($/MT) 32.3 28.9 58.2 53.0 Uranium ($/MT)@ 604.8 543.4 938.1 954.0 DAP ($/MT) 393.3 328.1 872.5 925.0 Urea ($/MT) Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium Producer) @ Data has been taken from Cameco website, as it is not available in World Bank dataset. ^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / kilogram = $/MT = US$ per metric tonne. * Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh # Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, Liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From April 1968 to June 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 1-1/16.2/ ## Wheat, US HRW (Hard Red Winter) is not being reported by World Bank. Hence, it has been replaced with Wheat, US SRW (Soft Red Winter). DAP: Diammonium Phosphate      
  51. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period Aug FY18 107.15 107.31 FY19 114.29 113.93 FY20 123.86 125.89 FY21 135.38 136.23 FY22 146.76 147.61 Sep 108.05 113.90 126.86 138.32 150.74 Oct 109.22 116.32 129.16 140.67 153.61 Nov 109.95 116.18 130.90 141.83 158.18 Dec 109.92 115.82 130.45 140.86 158.16 Jan 110.01 116.12 133.04 140.56 158.78 Feb 109.72 117.12 131.64 143.09 160.61 Mar 109.96 119.46 131.69 143.61 161.88 Apr 111.15 120.33 130.59 145.09 164.50 May 111.65 121.05 131.01 145.24 Jun 112.58 121.63 132.08 144.82 Seasonally Adjusted Series 114.18 123.82 113.90 125.95 135.40 136.39 146.84 147.87 Jul Aug 106.99 107.19 Sep 107.67 113.57 126.54 138.01 150.45 Oct 108.23 115.26 127.98 139.37 152.17 Nov 108.81 114.90 129.37 140.10 156.19 Dec 109.83 115.65 130.19 140.50 157.71 Jan 110.24 116.39 133.35 140.90 159.18 Feb 110.40 117.76 132.26 143.69 161.20 Mar 110.56 120.06 132.29 144.21 162.52 Apr 111.16 120.34 130.61 145.11 164.51 May 112.27 121.72 131.73 146.04 Jun 113.35 122.52 133.11 146.05 Jul           45
  52. 46     Inflation Monitor, April 2022   Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period Jul Aug FY18 107.71 107.93 FY19 114.94 114.58 FY20 124.95 126.77 FY21 134.73 135.82 FY22 146.41 147.12 Sep 108.38 114.49 127.72 137.53 150.08 Oct 109.34 117.04 129.75 139.27 152.59 Nov 110.03 116.94 131.05 140.16 156.96 Dec 110.08 116.57 130.57 139.67 157.46 Jan 110.28 117.07 132.77 139.45 157.56 Feb 110.12 118.08 131.32 142.61 159.03 Mar 110.43 120.29 131.49 142.99 160.07 Apr 111.94 121.29 130.60 144.91 162.63 May 112.53 122.11 130.99 145.19 Jun 113.34 122.52 131.89 144.54 Jul Aug 107.39 107.67 Seasonally Adjusted Series 114.66 124.72 114.38 126.65 134.55 135.77 146.27 147.14 Sep 108.04 114.18 127.42 137.25 149.81 Oct 108.53 116.19 128.80 138.25 151.47 Nov 109.14 115.94 129.86 138.84 155.43 Dec 110.19 116.60 130.54 139.56 157.27 Jan 110.57 117.41 133.18 139.89 158.06 Feb 110.83 118.75 131.97 143.24 159.66 Mar 111.09 120.95 132.15 143.64 160.75 Apr 111.79 121.12 130.43 144.71 162.39 May 112.91 122.52 131.42 145.66 Jun 113.97 123.26 132.76 145.60
  53. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period     Jul Aug FY18 106.30 106.37 FY19 113.30 112.96 FY20 122.22 124.56 FY21 136.36 136.84 FY22 147.28 148.34 Sep 107.54 113.01 125.55 139.51 151.74 Oct 109.05 115.23 128.28 142.79 155.15 Nov 109.83 115.03 130.67 144.34 160.03 Dec 109.68 114.70 130.28 142.65 159.21 Jan 109.60 114.68 133.44 142.23 160.62 Feb 109.11 115.68 132.13 143.82 162.99 Mar 109.25 118.21 132.00 144.55 164.62 Apr 109.95 118.89 130.58 145.37 167.31 May 110.33 119.45 131.03 145.32 Jun 111.44 120.29 132.36 145.24 Jul Aug 106.38 106.45 Seasonally Adjusted Series 113.45 122.46 113.16 124.91 136.69 137.34 147.69 148.98 Sep 107.13 112.64 125.20 139.17 151.41 Oct 107.77 113.87 126.74 141.05 153.24 Nov 108.31 113.34 128.64 142.00 157.34 Dec 109.28 114.20 129.66 141.92 158.36 Jan 109.74 114.84 133.61 142.44 160.86 Feb 109.75 116.26 132.71 144.36 163.52 Mar 109.76 118.71 132.51 145.06 165.18 Apr 110.21 119.16 130.88 145.71 167.69 May 111.30 120.51 132.20 146.61 Jun 112.41 121.40 133.65 146.74 47
  54. 48   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 100.15 100.09 100.03 99.98 Jul 100.11 100.03 99.95 99.88 Aug 100.34 100.29 100.25 100.22 Sep 100.92 100.92 100.92 100.94 Oct 101.05 101.11 101.18 101.24 Nov 100.08 100.15 100.20 100.25 Dec 99.79 99.77 99.77 99.76 Jan 99.38 99.46 99.53 99.58 Feb 99.46 99.50 99.55 99.58 Mar 99.99 100.00 99.99 99.99 Apr 99.45 99.45 99.45 99.45 May 99.33 99.28 99.22 99.16 Jun Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 100.30 100.24 100.18 100.13 Jul 100.24 100.17 100.10 100.04 Aug 100.32 100.27 100.23 100.20 Sep 100.74 100.73 100.74 100.74 Oct 100.82 100.87 100.92 100.95 Nov 99.90 99.97 100.03 100.08 Dec 99.74 99.71 99.69 99.69 Jan 99.36 99.44 99.51 99.56 Feb 99.41 99.45 99.50 99.54 Mar 100.13 100.14 100.13 100.14 Apr 99.66 99.67 99.67 99.68 May 99.45 99.40 99.34 99.27 Jun FY22 99.95 99.82 100.20 100.94 101.27 100.29 99.75 99.63 99.61 100.00 Average 100.04 99.96 100.26 100.93 101.17 100.20 99.77 99.52 99.54 99.99 99.45 99.25 FY22 100.09 99.99 100.18 100.74 100.98 100.12 99.68 99.60 99.58 100.15 Average 100.19 100.11 100.24 100.74 100.91 100.02 99.70 99.49 99.50 100.14 99.67 99.37
  55. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period Aug FY18 99.93 99.92 FY19 99.86 99.82 FY20 99.81 99.72 FY21 99.76 99.64 FY22 99.72 99.57 Average 99.82 99.73 Sep 100.38 100.33 100.28 100.24 100.22 100.29 Oct 101.18 101.19 101.21 101.23 101.24 101.21 Nov 101.41 101.49 101.58 101.65 101.71 101.57 Dec 100.37 100.44 100.48 100.51 100.54 100.47 Jan 99.87 99.86 99.86 99.85 99.85 99.86 Feb 99.42 99.50 99.57 99.63 99.68 99.56 Mar 99.54 99.58 99.62 99.65 99.66 99.61 Apr 99.77 99.78 99.77 99.77 99.77 99.77 May 99.13 99.12 99.11 99.12 99.12 Jun 99.14 99.09 99.04 98.98 99.06 Jul     49
  56. 50   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Period Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FY18 0.57 0.15 0.69 1.09 0.66 -0.03 0.08 -0.26 0.22 1.08 0.46 0.83 Original Series FY19 1.51 -0.31 -0.03 2.12 -0.12 -0.31 0.26 0.86 2.00 0.73 0.60 0.48 FY20 1.83 1.64 0.77 1.81 1.35 -0.34 1.99 -1.05 0.04 -0.84 0.32 0.82 FY21 2.50 0.63 1.53 1.70 0.82 -0.68 -0.21 1.80 0.36 1.03 0.10 -0.29 FY22 1.34 0.58 2.12 1.90 2.98 -0.01 0.39 1.15 0.79 1.62 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -0.21 0.19 0.45 0.52 0.53 0.94 0.37 0.14 0.15 0.55 0.99 0.96 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.74 1.06 -0.25 1.73 -0.29 0.46 1.49 1.14 -0.31 1.09 0.65 0.63 0.64 2.43 1.18 -0.82 1.95 0.02 0.23 -1.27 1.15 0.86 0.66 1.05 1.72 0.73 1.19 0.98 0.52 0.29 0.29 1.98 0.36 0.62 0.64 0.01 0.54 0.70 1.74 1.15 2.64 0.97 0.93 1.27 0.82 1.22
  57. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 0.59 1.41 1.98 2.15 1.29 Jul 0.20 -0.31 1.46 0.81 0.48 Aug 0.42 -0.08 0.75 1.26 2.01 Sep 0.89 2.23 1.59 1.27 1.67 Oct 0.63 -0.09 1.00 0.64 2.86 Nov 0.05 -0.32 -0.37 -0.35 0.32 Dec 0.18 0.43 1.68 -0.16 0.06 Jan -0.15 0.86 -1.09 2.27 0.93 Feb 0.28 1.87 0.13 0.27 0.65 Mar 1.37 0.83 -0.68 1.34 1.60 Apr 0.53 0.68 0.30 0.19 May 0.72 0.34 0.69 -0.45 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun     -0.22 0.27 0.34 0.46 0.56 0.97 0.34 0.23 0.24 0.63 1.00 0.94 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.61 1.19 -0.25 1.54 -0.18 0.61 1.76 1.08 -0.22 0.82 0.57 0.52 0.70 2.02 1.14 -0.91 1.86 0.13 0.14 -1.30 1.15 0.76 0.60 1.02 1.35 0.90 1.09 0.73 0.43 0.52 0.23 2.40 0.28 0.74 0.66 -0.04 0.47 0.59 1.82 1.11 2.62 1.19 0.50 1.01 0.68 1.02 51
  58. 52   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 0.54 1.67 1.60 3.02 1.40 Jul 0.07 -0.30 1.91 0.35 0.72 Aug 1.10 0.04 0.79 1.95 2.29 Sep 1.40 1.96 2.17 2.35 2.25 Oct 0.72 -0.17 1.86 1.09 3.15 Nov -0.14 -0.29 -0.30 -1.17 -0.51 Dec -0.07 -0.02 2.43 -0.29 0.89 Jan -0.45 0.87 -0.98 1.12 1.48 Feb 0.13 2.19 -0.10 0.51 1.00 Mar 0.64 0.58 -1.08 0.57 1.63 Apr 0.35 0.47 0.34 -0.03 May 1.01 0.70 1.02 -0.06 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun -0.20 0.07 0.63 0.60 0.49 0.90 0.42 0.01 0.01 0.41 0.99 1.00 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.93 0.87 -0.25 2.00 -0.46 0.23 1.09 1.23 -0.47 1.50 0.76 0.79 0.56 3.05 1.24 -0.68 2.10 -0.15 0.37 -1.23 1.14 1.01 0.74 1.10 2.28 0.47 1.33 1.35 0.67 -0.05 0.36 1.35 0.49 0.44 0.62 0.08 0.65 0.87 1.63 1.21 2.67 0.65 1.58 1.65 1.02 1.52
  59. State Bank of Pakistan   53 List of Figures Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Communication Transport 35 30 10 15 25 5 20 15 5 10 5 0 10 5 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 -15 -10 Education Re cre ation & Culture 20 10 20 10 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 -15 Apr-20 Feb-22 -10 Apr-22 Oct-21 Dec-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Apr-20 -15 Jun-20 -10 -10      
  60.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Communication Transport 35 30 10 15 25 5 20 15 5 10 5 0 10 5 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 -15 -10 Education Re cre ation & Culture 20 10 20 10 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 -15 Apr-20 Feb-22 -10 Apr-22 Oct-21 Dec-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jun-20 -15 Aug-20 -10 Jun-20 -10 Apr-20 54  
  61. State Bank of Pakistan   55 Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 10 20 15 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 20 15 10 15 5 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Communication Transport 30 25 10 15 20 5 15 5 10 5 10 0 5 0 -5 -5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 -15 -10 Education Re cre ation & Culture 20 10 20 10 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 -15 Apr-20 Feb-22 -10 Apr-22 Oct-21 Dec-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 -15 Aug-20 -10 Jun-20 -10      
  62.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 100 80 50 50 60 60 40 40 30 20 40 30 20 20 10 20 10 0 0 12-month ma food price changes 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 100 100 80 12-month ma non-food price changes 70 70 80 60 50 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 40 30 20 20 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (356), Food Items (103) and non-Food Ite ms (253).   80 60 40 80 100 70 80 60 12-month ma price changes   0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 70 80 YoY price changes <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 56 Price intervals in percent
  63. State Bank of Pakistan   57 Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 100 300 MoM price changes 250 80 350 12-month ma price changes (MoM 300 100 80 250 200 60 200 60 150 40 150 40 100 100 20 50 0 0 12-month ma food price changes (MoM) 100 100 350 12-month ma non-food price changes (MoM) 300 80 250 300 80 250 60 200 150 40 60 200 150 40 100 20 50 20 50 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (356), Food Items (103) and non-Food Ite ms (253). 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 100     0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 350 20 50 Price intervals in percent  
  64.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 100 80 50 60 40 100 80 60 50 60 40 40 30 20 20 10 40 30 20 20 10 0 12-month ma food price changes 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 80 12-month ma price changes 70 80 60 80 100 100 80 12-month ma non-food price changes 70 70 80 60 50 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 40 30 20 20 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (244), Food Items (94) and non-Food Items (150). 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 70 YoY price changes <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 58 Price intervals in percent  
  65. State Bank of Pakistan   59 Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 180 160 100 250 80 200 80 60 150 60 40 100 40 20 50 20 0 0 0 MoM price changes 140 12-month ma price changes (MoM) 100 120 100 80 60 40 20 12-month ma food price changes (MoM) 100 12-month ma non-food price changes (MoM) 300 80 250 300 80 250 60 200 150 40 150 20 50 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (244), Food Items (94) and non-Food Items (150).                 60 200 40 100 100   100 350 20 50 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 350 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent  
  66.   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY)   Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 30 100 30 80 25 YoY price changes 25 20 60 15 12-month ma price changes 80 20 60 40 10 40 10 20 5 0 12-month ma food price changes 25 20 5 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 30 100 15 100 30 100 12-month ma non-food price changes 80 20 25 80 20 60 60 15 15 40 40 10 5 0 20 5 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in WPI Basket (110), Food Items (40) and non-Food Items (70). 20 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 10 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 60 Price intervals in percent  
  67. State Bank of Pakistan   Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies Technical Notes 1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI (National, Urban and Rural), WPI and SPI are computed by the following Laspeyres Index formula: Pj  I t   w0j  t j  j  P0  Where It is price index, w 0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket, Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year. 2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2015-16. 3. CPI baskets for urban and rural areas contains 356 and 244 consumers’ items respectively; WPI basket contains 419 items; SPI contains 51 items. 4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows: t  ( It  1) 100 It 12 5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the period from July to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows: t        t   i0 t  12   i0 I ti I t  12  i    1   100    Where v is the serial number of the month of July of current fiscal year in a given time series. 6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows: t  ( It  1)  100 I t 1 7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as follows:  11    I t i  i 0  ~  t  11  1  100     I t 12  i   i0  8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the following two methods i.e. NFNE inflation and trimmed inflation:     61
  68. 62   Inflation Monitor, April 2022 a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following steps: i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average changes in their price indices in a given month. ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and 10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less). iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the rest of the items is core inflation. 9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is worked out as below: Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indices of individual items or subgroups (Iit), i.e. It  w i  I it i The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall inflation is defined as below:  C it   it 12  w i   it  t Where    C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation  it 12  I it 12 ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the I t 12 reference month wi : Weights of ith item  it : Inflation of ith item t : Overall inflation 10. Annualized rate of inflation (based on a month-on-month rate