Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 22 September

Transcription

1. Sep . 22, 2017 KCCI - eBulletin Govt. considering three names to replace Dar The govt. is considering three names to replace Finance Minister Ishaq Dar who is facing a NAB reference in accountability court. In this regard, Prime Minister’s Advisor on Economic Affairs Division is being named as most favorite for the post, followed by former Finance Minister Sartaj Aziz and Advisor to Prime Minister Haroon Akhtar. There is also possibility of addition of more names to the list for the next finance minister. BR. Secrecy, confidentiality made census dubious: Sindh CM Speaking at a meeting at the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Sindh CM Murad Ali Shah has said that the secrecy and confidentiality maintained during the recent census has made it more dubious; even if the census figures being publicised now are actually correct, all stakeholders have serious doubts over the credibility of the census data as the entire process has been carried out in a secretive manner. Daily Times. Govt opposes ‘regime changes’ for foreign currency accounts The federal government has again opposed a private-member bill that seeks the withdrawal of unprecedented immunities enjoyed by foreign currency accounts holders, fearing any such change may lead to the withdrawal of deposits that currently stand at $ 7Bn. The government gave its policy statement in a meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Finance. Senator Saleem Mandviwalla, had moved the bill last year after the federal government backtracked from its announcement to review all the existing laws that allowed people to transfer money abroad and evade taxes. Tribune. PM for deeper, broad-based Pak-US trade ties Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has emphasized the need for having deeper and broad based trade and investment relations between Pakistan and the United States. While speaking at a luncheon gathering arranged by Pakistani business community in New York, the Prime Minister enumerated the economic achievements of Pakistan with highest real GDP growth of the last ten years achieved during the last financial year. He pointed out that major investment initiatives being taken under the CPEC are reflective of the promising business environment of the country and provide tremendous investment opportunities for US companies. BR. Pak authorities must be vigilant once China bans import of hazardous scrap As environmental concerns become a higher priority for Beijing, China plans to ban the import of certain hazardous scrap materials starting Dec’17, following which the trade dynamics are expected to change significantly for Pakistan. The high ups of trade and environment departments need to be vigilant in order to fully gear up to meet this huge challenge. Chinese government has notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) that it would forbid the import of a total of 24 kinds of solid wastes by the end of 2017. The list includes a range of textiles, plastics, as well as waste matter left after smelting in the iron and steel industries. The News. Sindh CM assures industrialists of provincial economic council Sindh CM Shah has supported the idea of setting up a provincial economic council to speed up industrialization and increase job opportunities in the province. The proposal for ‘Sindh Economic Council’ was floated by business community. CM said setting up a provincial economic council was a good idea as it would help to bring all stakeholders on board to sort out industrial issues at a faster pace. Dawn. Nepra likely to approve PKR 1.81 per unit refund Nepra is likely to approve a refund of PKR 1.81 per unit to the consumers of power Discos for Aug.’17 under monthly fuel adjustment formula. In this regard, CPPA submitted the tariff petition to Nepra along with energy purchase data and changes were taken into account. The refund will not be applicable on lifeline consumers, agriculture consumers and KE consumers. BR. SBP urges banks to improve remittance services SBP has urged banks to explore untapped non-traditional corridors to increase remittance flows to Pakistan. SBP deputy governor Jameel Ahmad has said that the banks should improve their service levels in general and for remittance recipients in particular. Governor SBP said that, introduction of innovative remittance products is required to attract new customers. Enhancement of infrastructure and systems and capacity building of human resources should be on-going tasks to improve efficiency. The News. Foreign debt servicing increases by 53% Pakistan’s foreign debt servicing has amounted to $ 8.16Bn in FY17, up 53% from FY16. SBP has reported that the country paid $ \ 6.54Bn in principal and $ 1.62Bn in interest during FY17. This amount can go further up in FY18 because govt. has borrowed $ 4.4Bn at commercial rates in FY17 in an attempt to maintain foreign exchange reserves of the SBP. Dawn. Pakistan to pay dearly for ‘expropriating’ assets of Turkish firm Karkey The government is trying to downplay the international arbitration loss in a rental power project case to Turkish firm Karkey Karadeniz, which claims to have secured an $ 800Mn compensation award. Attorney General of Pakistan (AGP), which coordinated the arbitration proceedings, and the Power Division under the Ministry of Energy separately have confirmed that the arbitration by the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) of the World Bank had gone against Pakistan. However, both of them said in their statements that the amount of the compensation award had not been concluded and was still subject to a mutual settlement. Dawn. Economic Indicators List of Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily Crude (NO'17) Gold (OC'17) Gold (10g) Local Silver (OC'17) Cotton(KHI)-40 kg Kibor-6M 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep 21-Sep PKR PKR Pts. $ Mn $/bbl $/oz PKR $/oz PKR % 105.41 106.00 42,775 -1.61 50.72 1,290.2 44,614 16.94 6,484 6.17% Forex Reserves 15-Sep $ Bn 20.10 0.01% 0.00% -1.32% NM** 0.00% -0.67% -1.04% -1.02% 0.84% 0.00% WoW -2.36% YoY 13.18% 11.80% 24.85% -33.52% -102.10% 154.74% USD-Interbank USD-Open MKT KSE-100 index FIPI Jul-Aug 17 Remittances $ Bn 3.50 Jul-Aug 17 Exports* $ Bn 3.50 Jul-Aug 17 Imports* $ Bn 9.79 Jul-Aug 17 Trade Balance* $ Bn -6.29 Jul-Aug 17 Current Account $ Mn -2,601 Foreign Direct Inv. $ Bn 0.46 Jul-Aug 17 Jul-17 LSM Growth* % 12.98 % 3.41 Jul-Aug 17 Avg. CPI-FY18* Discount Rate % 5.75 Jul-17 WoW= week Sources: KCCI Research, PMEX , NCCPL, KSE, SBP, PBS* ** Not Meaningful on week; Major Currencies GBP, 12-Sep-17, 140.6 145 135 125 EUR, 12-Sep-17, 125.8 115 105 95 Sep-16 USD USD, 12-Sep-17, 105.7 Dec-16 GBP EUR Mar-17 Jun-17 "Do today what should be done. Your tomorrow may never come." Harry F. Banks Chart of the Day G R OW T H I N L A R G E S C A L E M A N U F A C T UR ING OU T P U T ( 1 M F Y 1 3 -1 M F Y1 8) Big industry output grew 13% in July Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) posted a robust growth of nearly 13% YoY in 1MFY18. Production data of 36 items received from the Ministry of Industries contributed 10.51% to LSM growth in Jul’17. The contribution of 65 items received from the provincial bureaus of statistics remained 2.12%. Dawn. 12.98% Petrol shortage ruled out Stakeholders in the oil industry have ruled out any shortage of petrol in the country saying that stocks are enough and imports are already lined up for arrival within this month. Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) CEO has said that the total petrol stocks stand at 200,000 tons while another 220,000 tons of imported petrol is arriving in the next 10 days. Dawn. Global trade ‘rebounds strongly’ in first half of 2017: WTO The World Trade Organization has upped its forecast for global trade growth in 2017 thanks to stronger than expected demand for merchandise in Asia and North America. A previous projection of 2.4% growth for this year has been boosted to 3.6%, WTO has upgraded forecast for 2017 as trade rebounds strongly. Growth would represent a substantial improvement on the lackluster 1.3% increase in 2016. BR. Forex reserves plummet The country's foreign exchange reserves fell sharply by $ 485Mn during last week, mainly due to repayment of external debt. According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country's forex reserves stood at $ 20.09Bn as on Sept. 15, 2017 compared to $ 20.59Bn on Sept. 8, 2017. The SBP's reserves decreased by $ 474.8Mn to $14.28Bn down from $ 14.76Bn a week earlier, mainly due to external debt servicing and other official payments. Reserves held by commercial banks fell from $5.83Bn to $ 5.82Bn, down by $ 10.7Mn. BR. Sep-17 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com Quote of the Day 4.12% 0.39% 1MFY13 1.40% 1MFY14 1MFY15 2.60% 1MFY16 1.72% 1MFY17 1MFY18 Source: KCCI Research, PBS Disclaimer This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' understanding of the news item. The R&D Dept. bears no responsibility for its correctness or accuracy. Contact: res@kcci.com.pk