MENA Market Report - 4 July

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , July 04, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the session on a weak note as there is lack of clarity on Qatar's decision to accept the demands raised by other Arab states, which has been extended by another two days. Investors are cautious about the whole situation as the outcome is unknown and it could lead to significantly increase in volatility over the next couple of sessions. On the positive side, oil prices inching closer to US$ 50 mark is providing some support but the overall geopolitical environment is suppressing the impact on regional equities. For the day, five out of the eight indexes closed in red, while three closed in green for the day. Kuwait was the worst performer for the second consecutive day as the index lost another 0.7% for the day after losing 2.2% on the previous day. The index is pointing towards further selling pressure as suggested by technical indicators as the broader market has been hovering around the current levels for the past five months. UAE markets ended on a mixed note as Dubai was up by 1.2%, while Abu Dhabi was down by 0.7% for the day. The index was supported by broad based buying especially Emaar, which advanced by 1.9% for the day. Saudi Arabia closed marginally higher by 0.1% for the day, adding to the gains of 0.8% on the previous day. Qatar recovered half of the losses incurred on the previous day as it was up by 1.3% for the day, which was supported by buying from foreign funds. Egypt was down by 0.4% for the day, giving away some of the gains recorded on the previous day. Bahrain and Oman closed in red as they were down by 0.3% and 0.6% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a mixed note as Dow and S&P were up by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while Nasdaq was down by 0.5%. European markets closed in green as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all up by 0.9%, 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei is up by 0.4%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai is down by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. Headlines (WW) USA’s week data to show moderate pace of economic growth (GCC) GCC economic cycle bottoming, region eyes modest recovery (WW) US banks all set to free up their lending (ME) Middle East countries climb in retail development rankings (WW) China factory growth unexpectedly quickens (AE) Soft-landed UAE economy poised for a convincing comeback (WW) China's Cooling Housing Market Set to Weigh on Economy (AE) Canada seeks UAE investments in infrastructure projects (WW) UK is the worst-performing advanced economy in the world (AE) UAE ranks 5th in global retail (WW) UK factories lose pace as exports slow despite weaker pound (SA) Saudi Arabia ranks high in savings index survey (WW) Japan firms most upbeat in three years but labour shortages weigh (QA) Qatar's economic prospects stranded in politics (WW) Asia manufacturing picks up in June but momentum seen slowing into H2 (EG) Egypt’s austerity cuts have been great for foreign investors (CMD) Gold hits seven-week low as dollar firms, Treasury yields climb (EG) Egypt’s economy passed through most tricky phase, reform dangers started fading (CMD) Oil glut set to increase on US shale production (EG) Egypt fuel price hikes fan inflation fears (FX) Yen Erases Gain as Focus Returns to US Data After LDP Defeat (KW) Kuwait’s government finances to remain in surplus (FX) Sterling stumbles after weak UK manufacturing data (OM) Oman's Tight Liquidity Posing Economic Challenges (FI) China opens up USD 10 trillion bond market in liberalisation step (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,424.69 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% -3.0% ˄ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,414.45 -0.7% -0.2% -0.2% -2.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,493.45 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 3.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,565.22 -0.7% -2.9% -2.9% 14.2% ˅ ˅ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 13,431.06 -0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 8.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,936.52 1.3% -1.0% -1.0% -14.4% ˅ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,316.01 -0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 7.8% ˅ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,088.50 -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -12.0% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 258 296 408 120 95 147 79,393 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 217 109 136 64 49 62 132,032 Saudi (SASEIDX) 162 177 189 930 833 918 473,299 Kuwait (KWSE) 47 145 331 28 55 99 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 234 283 311 34 76 84 20,293 Qatar (DSM) 10 11 11 78 79 90 102,288 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 4 4 2 2 2 20,370 Oman (MSM30) 9 15 17 7 7 10 14,073 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , July 04, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 14.3 11.6 11.1 9.0 386.2 8.3 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 Qatar Bahrain Oman - - - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 27% 6.2% 6% Current 489.3 12.2 11.0 12 Previous 600 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 4% 14.2% 18% 5.5% 9% 3.6% 3.1% 7.8% 8.8% 3.9% 0% -9% -3.0% -2.9% 2% -18% 0.0% 0% -12.0% -14.4% 0.0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , July 04, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.47 -2.43% 5,071 12,682 6,521 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.15 -1.74% 6,050 7,019 14,930 6,067 AFKAR S&P UAE UCITS ETF CLASS A 4.12 -0.97% 13 53 2.83% 16,381 17,125 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.14 -0.88% 75 86 1.97% 1,569 1,105 ARAMEX PJSC 5.28 -0.76% 578 3,064 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DANA GAS PJSC 0.66 6.06% 124,509 79,828 NATIONAL BANK OF FUJAIRAH PJSC 3.29 -8.81% 100 345 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.77 3.90% 37 28 ABU DHABI AVIATION 2.60 -6.15% 2 5 INTERNATIONAL FISH FARMING HOLD 1.40 3.57% 177 244 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC 10.50 -2.38% 1,931 20,521 SHARJAH ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 1.29 3.10% 34 43 BANK OF SHARJAH PJSC 1.26 -2.38% 31 40 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 0.67 2.99% 10 6 ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK PJSC 3.58 -1.68% 95 342 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL BAHA INVESTMENT AND DEVELOP 19.08 9.96% 2,106 38,372 AL-OMRAN INDUSTRIAL AND TRADING 23.50 -6.38% 3 79 SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 32.65 9.95% 974 30,369 RAYDAN COMPANY CJSC 23.50 -6.38% 43 1,033 SAUDI AUTOMOTIVE SERVICES CO 16.50 9.33% 1,260 19,910 ABDULLAH SAAD MOHAMMED ABO 13.02 -5.38% 13 178 SAUDI PRINTING AND PACKAGING CO 15.92 5.90% 4,945 76,531 MOUWASAT MEDICAL SERVICES CO 158.00 -5.06% 66 10,665 ALAHLI TAKAFUL COMPANY SJSC 34.00 5.88% 198 6,549 AL ASEEL CO LTD 60.70 -4.45% 34 2,120 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) REAL ESTATE ASSET MANAGEMENT 234.00 19.66% 0 0 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 60.00 -18.33% 49 3 IFA HOTELS AND RESORTS CO KSCP 252.00 19.05% 0 0 KUWAIT NATIONAL CINEMA CO 0 0 1206.0 0 15.01% 2 2 1390.0 0 -16.55% NATIONAL PETROLEUM SERVICES CO KUWAIT REMAL REAL ESTATE CO KPSC 64.50 -14.73% 523 37 ARABI GROUP HOLDINGS KSCP 78.00 8.97% 0 0 AL ARGAN INTERNATIONAL REAL 186.00 -13.98% 12 2 AL MADINA FOR FINANCE AND INVEST 43.20 8.80% 0 0 KUWAIT FOUNDRY COMPANY KPSC -12.41% Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) 290.00 Close * 183 Volume ('000) 57 Value (EGP ‘000) ASEC CO FOR MINING SAE 7.79 9.88% 2 16 NATIONAL COMPANY FOR HOUSING 23.01 -10.00% 3 65 ARAB ALUMINUM CO SAE 14.83 8.16% 102 1,456 RAYA CONTACT CENTER CO 16.44 -5.72% 2 34 EGYPT ALUMINUM CO SAE 36.94 7.99% 140 4,996 CAIRO NATIONAL CO 3.75 -5.60% 4 14 MIDDLE EGYPT FLOUR MILLS CO SAE 39.60 7.22% 123 4,691 SOUHAG NATIONAL COMPANY FOOD 39.04 -4.79% 12 473 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT EGYPT 38.00 6.71% 1 38 CAIRO FOR HOUSING & DEVELOP 11.30 -4.69% 2 23 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR CINEMA AND FILM DISTR 24.55 9.57% 0 0 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 77.40 -3.49% 1 39 OOREDOO QSC 89.30 5.82% 126 10,918 AHLI BANK QSC 33.00 -3.03% 0 1 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 66.70 4.65% 104 6,789 GULF WAREHOUSING CO QSC 44.95 -2.89% 18 820 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 19.07 4.35% 87 1,630 QATAR ELECTRICITY AND WATER CO 188.00 -1.54% 49 9,377 QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE CO QSC 63.80 3.29% 254 15,940 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QSC 16.71 -1.26% 2 41 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DAMAC PROPERTIES DUBAI CO PSC 3.21 7.48% 0 23,347 DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.85 6.00% 0 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.42 4.34% DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.06 MARKA PJSC 0.71 Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers DoD % 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , July 04, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 82,396 103.00 0.0% 12.6% 4,160 114,268 105.40 76.00 16 1.9 5.8% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,447 17.50 0.6% -6.9% 665 3,171 20.20 17.10 17 3.4 4.6% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 41,064 77.00 0.0% 0.0% 743 15,257 78.90 51.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 31,567 127.00 1.2% -14.2% 281 9,599 157.27 122.10 9 1.7 2.5% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 30,419 10.25 -2.4% 2.6% 1,931 5,390 11.55 8.30 10 1.2 4.4% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 29,985 69.20 -0.9% 9.8% 4,625 85,342 71.70 48.60 14 2.2 3.3% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 29,705 55.70 -0.5% 30.8% 3,617 53,723 58.00 32.00 12 1.8 2.9% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 28,887 26.00 2.0% 16.1% 2,471 17,132 26.05 14.30 13 1.5 2.7% 9 Almarai Co SJSC SA 19,839 93.00 -1.5% 35.8% 292 7,244 98.30 51.50 37 5.8 1.0% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 18,587 75.00 1.2% 0.3% 418 8,361 76.00 46.00 80 6.8 0.0% 11 DP World Ltd AE 17,438 21.01 -2.3% 20.0% 291 1,664 23.85 15.53 18 2.0 1.8% 12 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,669 53.50 0.8% 37.2% 4,228 60,315 53.80 27.80 886 2.4 0.0% 13 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 15,404 7.90 1.9% 10.8% 6,411 13,793 8.08 6.22 10 1.3 1.9% 14 Industries Qatar QSC QA 15,288 93.90 0.0% -20.1% 273 6,891 122.00 91.10 18 1.8 4.3% 15 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,866 26.00 0.2% 6.8% 1,648 11,428 27.10 15.90 10 1.2 3.7% 16 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,399 686.00 -0.6% 10.8% 979 2,216 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.2% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,184 8.05 0.5% -5.2% 75 164 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 5.0% 18 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,799 27.00 0.7% 8.0% 604 4,350 28.40 16.40 11 1.3 2.6% 19 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,051 7.10 0.0% 0.0% 2,817 5,446 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.6% 20 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,025 31.20 3.0% 19.5% 550 4,574 32.10 18.00 11 1.2 3.4% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,793 9.91 -0.4% -17.1% 47 125 12.95 9.80 69 1.3 5.0% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 9,097 478.00 -1.0% -2.6% 3,083 4,865 572.73 400.00 13 1.6 0.0% 23 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,944 11.18 1.6% -3.2% 1,667 4,970 11.80 8.55 10 0.9 5.8% 24 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 8,744 12.25 -0.3% -18.9% 351 1,157 20.24 10.72 15 1.0 4.1% 25 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,577 5.80 0.0% 0.0% 1 1 11.95 1.57 106 4.6 0.0% 26 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 8,542 2.41 -2.4% 0.0% 5,071 3,328 3.00 2.41 17 1.9 0.0% 27 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,220 54.80 -2.5% 1.5% 312 4,559 61.75 39.90 12 1.9 5.5% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,146 94.50 5.8% -7.2% 126 3,197 116.10 88.00 16 1.4 3.7% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,871 39.00 1.0% 3.7% 564 5,920 45.40 33.05 14 2.5 5.1% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,658 5.69 1.1% 2.2% 3,022 4,683 6.29 5.01 9 1.2 7.9% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 574,613 3.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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