MENA Market Report - 3 January

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , January 03, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets started the year on a slightly positive note as four out of the eight indexes closed in green, while three ended in red and one remained unchanged for the day. The outlook of regional markets has slightly turned positive however investors will remain cautious due to the regional overhang. For the day, UAE markets ended on a positive note as both Dubai and Abu Dhabi were up by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively during the session. The market breadth in Dubai was skewed towards gainers as advancers were 24 compared to 10 decliners, while 2 remained unchanged for the day. The trading activity was subdued in Abu Dhabi despite the index recording gains of 1.0% during the session. Saudi Arabia ended on a negative note as it was down by 0.3% for the day, marking the second consecutive session of lower closing in the year for the index. The gains in the banking sector index were outweighed by losses in the energy sector stocks, which pushed the overall index lower during the session. Kuwait was the worst performing index as it was down by 1.5% for the day. Egypt closed unchanged for the day, starting the year on a subdued note after recording strong gains in the previous year. Qatar closed higher by 1.1% for the day, continuing the positive trend from the previous week. Bahrain closed lower by 0.7%, while Oman was up by 0.2% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a positive note as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P were all up by 0.4%, 1.5% and 0.8% respectively for the day. European markets closed the session on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were down by 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a positive note as Hang Seng and Shanghai are up by 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, while Nikkei is closed for the day. Headlines (WW) Fed predicts stronger US economy (SA) Saudis, expats start New Year with structural economic reforms (WW) Chinese manufacturing growth slows slightly in December (SA) Saudi gas price hikes show reform is on track (WW) China central bank skips open market operations (AE) VAT contributing to weaning UAE off oil (WW) China to pursue slower but higher quality growth (AE) Focus on global expansion and diversity key to Ajman Free Zone growth in 2017 (WW) Gloomy growth projections cloud hopes for UK economy (AE) Abu Dhabi will offset post-Expo 2020 commercial building decline (WW) UK growth to slow to 1.5% in 2018 (EG) Egypt repaid around USD 30bn in foreign debt in 2017 (WW) Economists divided over prospects of UK interest rate rise (EG) Egypt 2017 trade deficit falls 26% YoY (WW) Japanese economy showing signs of exiting deflation (EG) Egypt just incurred a USD 4bn international debt, but financial troubles growing (CMD) Oil rises in strongest year opening since 2014 (QA) Turkey looks to enhance cooperation with Qatar (CMD) Gold hits more than 3-month high on strong technicals (KW) Kuwait City among top 10 in the region for highest GDP (FX) Dollar begins year on back foot as euro shines (OM) Oman 2018 state budget lifts spending; little to reassure rating agencies (FX) Sterling hits three-month high ahead of manufacturing PMI (BH) Deputy King initiates project to improve Bahrain airport offering (FI) Euro zone bond yields hit 2-month highs as ECB cuts back stimulus (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,411.17 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,441.99 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ˄ ˅ ˅ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,171.74 -0.3% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% ˄ ˄ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 6,312.52 -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% ˄ ˅ ˅ Egypt (EGX30) 15,023.76 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,620.26 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% ˄ ˅ ˅ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,322.04 -0.7% 1.2% -0.7% -0.7% ˄ ˅ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,093.69 0.2% 0.9% -0.1% -0.1% ˄ ˄ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 180 276 226 69 122 95 79,770 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 98 89 91 25 43 43 132,238 Saudi (SASEIDX) 255 182 155 1,174 919 824 447,083 Kuwait (KWSE) 59 81 89 19 53 63 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 196 356 337 38 81 68 22,810 Qatar (DSM) 10 9 9 65 69 66 99,438 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 5 4 3 2 2 2 21,930 Oman (MSM30) 33 19 17 13 13 11 14,303 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , January 03, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 12.9 12 PB Previous 11.1 10.3 10.2 10.3 339.0 8.7 8.7 291.0 300 8 169.1 127.9 4 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.2 - - - 0.8 1.0 61.4 1.4 0 102.3 93.1 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 2% 8% 1.2% 6% Current 600 5.1% 4.8% 4.1% 4% 1% 5.1% 0.0% 4.2% 0% 3.2% -0.1% -0.7% -1% 2% 0.0% Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait -0.8% -1.5% -2% 0% Dubai 1.1% 1.0% 5.8% 5.4% Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , January 03, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) NATIONAL GENERAL INSURANCE CO 1.95 -9.72% 0 21 5,200 GULF NAVIGATION HOLDING PJSC 1.25 -3.85% 0 3,702 38,289 SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.18 -2.48% 4,204 5,024 1.46 -1.35% 2,053 3,018 2.25 -0.44% 2,715 6,123 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.90 8.57% 0 588 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 0.91 5.10% 0 EMAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 5.29 3.93% 7,377 Top Losers EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 7.19 3.60% 4,976 35,152 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.51 3.47% 55,001 27,418 DRAKE AND SCULL INTERNATIONAL Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AXA GREEN CRESCENT INSURANCE CO 0.95 13.10% 0 0 NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 3.50 -6.67% 5 19 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 1.08 9.09% 365 378 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.61 -3.17% 5 3 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.60 7.14% 69,417 40,262 AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 4.65 -3.12% 12 56 ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK PJSC 6.98 2.65% 758 5,221 DANA GAS PJSC 0.79 -2.47% 5,109 4,087 UNION NATIONAL BANK PJSC 3.90 2.63% 1 2 FUJAIRAH CEMENT INDUSTRIES CO 0.95 -2.06% 5 5 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) UNITED ELECTRONICS COMPANY JSC 49.50 5.32% 582 28,086 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEV 11.68 -9.88% 94,051 1,158,712 SAUDI KAYAN PETROCHEMICAL CO 11.06 4.54% 38,571 417,336 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 11.32 -5.51% 14 165 BUPA ARABIA FOR COOPERATIVE INS 93.90 2.18% 159 14,736 AL SORAYAI TRADING AND INDUSTRY 12.72 -4.00% 828 10,754 SAUDI AUTOMOTIVE SERVICES CO 19.24 2.01% 653 12,439 ALDREES PETROLEUM AND TRANS 26.00 -2.80% 762 20,092 BASIC CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES CO SJSC 21.18 1.83% 32 668 LAZURDE FOR JEWELRY CO 18.84 -2.59% 158 3,017 Top Gainers Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) EFFECT REAL ESTATE COMPANY KPSC 27.90 19.23% 25 1 NAFAIS HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 704.00 -19.91% 0 0 SHUAIBA INDUSTRIAL COMPANY KPSC 267.00 10.79% 0 0 KUWAIT AND GULF LINK TRANSPORT 60.00 -8.26% 3 0 60.10 -6.82% 10 1 Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers LIVESTOCK TRANSPORT AND TRADING 245.00 6.99% 0 0 WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP AL ARGAN INTRNL REAL ESTATE 160.00 6.67% 250 39 UNITED REAL ESTATE COMPANY SAKP 75.00 -6.25% 67 5 SALBOOKH TRADING CO KSCP 55.00 3.77% 0 0 IFA HOTELS AND RESORTS CO KSCP 170.00 -5.56% 1 0 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) ORANGE EGYPT FOR TELECO 34.36 9.99% 0 403 UPPER EGYPT FLOUR MILLS SAE 133.56 -8.32% 0 32 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 33.68 9.53% 2 58 MM GROUP FOR INDUSTRY 12.90 -5.98% 72 964 MOHANDES INSURANCE CO SAE 15.30 9.29% 30 434 AL TAWFEEK CO FINANCIAL LEASING 7.36 -5.40% 1,277 9,666 ALEXANDRIA FLOUR MILLS 31.66 9.17% 2 48 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS 30.46 -4.45% 1 41 EL SHAMS HOUSING AND URBAN 9.32 8.62% 1,350 12,087 NOZHA INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL 64.99 -4.43% 3 223 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) MEDICARE GROUP QSC 76.83 9.99% 128 9,385 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 42.56 -2.61% 5 227 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 15.00 7.14% 1 15 INVESTMENT HOLDING GROUP 6.04 -0.98% 861 5,228 AHLI BANK QSC 41.49 6.41% 2 65 MANNAI CORPORATION QPSC 58.94 -0.94% 5 306 AL KHALEEJ TAKAFUL GROUP QPSC 14.00 5.74% 300 4,081 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QPSC 37.19 -0.83% 153 5,732 4,883 MAZAYA QATAR REAL ESTATE DEV 8.95 -0.56% 715 6,418 Top Gainers Egypt DoD % DoD % Top Gainers Top Gainers Qatar Close * Close * Top Gainers GULF WAREHOUSING CO QPSC Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters 46.00 4.57% 109 Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , January 03, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,800 101.00 -0.2% -0.8% 5,640 151,900 105.40 91.25 16 1.9 5.9% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,436 17.50 0.0% 0.0% 562 2,677 18.90 15.75 17 3.6 4.6% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 35,787 67.10 -1.6% -2.2% 178 3,188 78.90 64.50 14 2.2 6.0% 4 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 32,238 127.10 0.9% 0.9% 160 5,596 157.27 115.01 9 1.5 2.5% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 31,004 10.45 2.0% 2.0% 396 1,125 11.55 9.72 12 1.1 4.3% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 29,387 55.10 0.2% 0.0% 476 7,001 58.00 37.00 12 1.8 2.9% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 27,993 64.60 -0.6% 0.0% 2,605 44,883 71.70 61.00 12 2.0 3.5% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 22,822 20.54 -0.6% -2.5% 560 3,068 26.05 19.65 8 1.1 3.4% 9 DP World Ltd AE 20,543 24.75 -1.0% -1.0% 213 1,432 25.00 17.98 20 2.1 1.5% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,249 97.80 0.8% 0.8% 24 638 122.00 85.00 23 1.8 4.1% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,109 51.70 -0.2% -0.8% 206 2,839 57.00 38.50 180 2.3 0.0% 12 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,499 58.50 -0.2% -1.0% 105 1,635 75.60 58.00 404 5.3 0.0% 13 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,489 9.80 0.0% 0.0% 1 2 11.95 1.57 107 7.4 0.0% 14 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 14,169 723.00 -0.7% -0.7% 613 1,473 800.00 609.52 14 1.3 4.0% 15 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,080 52.80 -1.7% -1.9% 505 7,112 78.64 51.80 25 3.8 1.4% 16 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 14,015 7.19 3.6% 3.6% 4,976 9,740 8.95 6.75 9 1.2 2.1% 17 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 12,533 23.50 0.3% -0.1% 94 589 27.10 19.80 10 1.1 4.0% 18 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,408 8.20 0.0% 0.0% 300 670 9.00 7.95 6 0.8 4.9% 19 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,056 579.00 0.5% 0.5% 679 1,305 650.00 467.00 17 1.8 2.7% 20 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,900 27.25 0.7% 0.9% 28 205 28.55 20.05 11 1.2 2.6% 21 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 10,016 12.52 0.0% -0.5% 200 666 12.74 10.10 12 1.0 5.2% 22 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,878 6.98 2.6% 2.6% 758 1,440 7.68 6.55 9 1.1 5.7% 23 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,305 28.95 0.3% 1.6% 62 481 33.40 22.10 10 1.1 3.6% 24 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 8,952 12.29 1.7% 1.7% 275 928 16.58 6.19 17 1.1 4.1% 25 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,850 59.00 0.0% 0.0% 131 2,062 61.90 52.00 15 2.1 0.0% 26 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,499 8.60 -0.8% -3.4% 181 415 12.05 7.90 50 1.0 5.8% 27 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,396 6.24 0.8% 0.8% 2,573 4,371 6.29 5.36 9 1.2 7.2% 28 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,075 91.80 1.2% 1.2% 129 3,258 116.10 78.00 15 1.3 3.8% 29 Masraf Al Rayan QPSC QA 7,962 38.66 2.4% 2.4% 1,035 10,990 45.40 33.32 14 2.3 5.2% 30 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,760 2.19 2.8% 2.8% 3,584 2,137 2.77 2.00 15 1.8 4.6% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 560,211 3.8% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) and regulated by the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority). The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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