MENA Market Report - 12 July

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , July 12, 2017 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended on a positive note for the second consecutive session as investors are turning their focus on testimony from the Fed on tightening of rates going forward and second quarter earnings from leading banks. Oil prices rising again is also helping regional investors, who are buying into blue chips, driving regional indexes to the positive territory for the past three sessions. For the day, Saudi Arabia was the best performing index as it was up by 1.5%, extending the weekly performance to + 2.4%, which helped in turning the monthly losses into gains. UAE markets ended on a positive note as Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both up by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively for the day. Saudi Arabia closed marginally higher by 0.1% for the day, extending the gains to 0.6% for the past three days. The index witnessed selling pressure during the last one hour, which minimized the gains recorded during the session. Kuwait closed on a positive note as it was up by 0.4%, third consecutive session of gains. The index has appreciated by 1.5% in the past three sessions, which has helped in recovering the monthly losses into gains and extended the annual gains. Qatar closed higher by 0.4% for the day, adding to the gains of 1.0% recorded on the previous day. The index rose by 1.2% in the past three sessions, however the performance for the year remains negative due to the ongoing diplomatic crisis. Bahrain and Oman closed higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively for the day, in line with the sentiments seen in the broader regional peers. International Markets: US markets closed on a mixed note as DJIA was flat, while Nasdaq was up by 0.3% and S&P was down by 0.1%. European markets closed in red as FTSE, DAX and CAC were down by 0.6%, 0.1% and 0.5% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei and Shanghai are down by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while Hang Seng is up by 0.8%. Headlines (WW) US Banking Group Anticipates Modest Growth in Economy in 2018 (GCC) GCC GDP on a growth path despite oil price decline (WW) Muted inflation, wages keep Fed policymakers cautious (GCC) GCC retail sector expected to rebound in 2018 (WW) Robots set to displace millions of US jobs (GCC) GCC hotels report performance decline in Ramadan (WW) China sets sights on oil benchmark after years of delays (ME) Middle East investment banking fees shrink 15% in the first half of 2017 (WW) UK shoppers spend more on essentials as inflation rises (AE) Dubai office rent spirals down in secondary commercial clusters (WW) British banks' optimism slumps on Brexit uncertainty (AE) UAE tops Arab countries for FDIs in 2016 (WW) Japan current account surplus down 5.9% (AE) UAE exempts VAT on residential real estate, passenger transport (WW) As India's new tax kicks in, concerns about core inflation rise (SA) Deflationary trend continues in Saudi Arabia (WW) Global energy investment in 2016 fell 12% to USD 1.7trln (SA) Saudi Arabia Exceeds Oil-Production Cap for First Time (CMD) Oil Prices Rise Ahead of US Stockpile Data (SA) Strong 2Q boosts Saudi stocks (CMD) Gold inches lower as market awaits rate hike cues (QA) Qatar National Bank Q2 net profit up 3.6%, flags strong funding (FX) Dollar's rise slows as rise in sovereign yields pauses (EG) Egypt’s inflation rises again; expected to keep going up (FX) Pound near two-week low as weak data casts doubt over interest rate hikes (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,439.88 0.6% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,408.66 0.2% 1.1% 1.4% -2.6% ˄ ˅ ˅ 0.3% -0.4% -3.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,245.39 0.1% 0.6% -2.4% 0.5% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) Egypt (EGX30) 6,778.62 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% 17.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ 13,684.27 1.5% 2.4% 2.2% 10.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 9,030.16 0.4% 1.2% -0.0% -13.5% ˅ ˅ ˅ 1,311.82 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 7.5% ˅ ˅ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 5,171.19 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% -10.6% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 215 294 372 66 95 138 79,963 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 30 107 130 17 46 59 131,029 Saudi (SASEIDX) 181 179 184 797 827 896 456,921 Kuwait (KWSE) 100 112 311 52 47 96 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 0 279 296 0 76 84 20,606 Qatar (DSM) 6 11 11 45 78 90 106,161 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 3 4 4 2 2 2 20,195 Oman (MSM30) 9 14 17 6 6 9 14,238 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters ** indicates markets were closed on Sunday. 1
2. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , July 12, 2017 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 13.8 11.8 11.1 9.1 386.2 8.5 300 8 239.3 188.3 4 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.0 Qatar Bahrain Oman - - - 178.1 106.9 87.2 1.4 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Current 489.3 12.2 10.9 12 Previous 600 27% 5.1% 17.9% 6.0% 5.5% 18% 4% 10.8% 9% 4.6% 4.3% 3.6% 3.1% 7.5% 0.5% 0% -9% -2.6% -3.0% 2% -18% 0.0% -10.6% -13.5% 0.0% 0% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , July 12, 2017 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.19 -1.68% 2,294 2,753 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.85 -1.62% 19 36 176 ARAMEX PJSC 5.36 -1.31% 19 104 108 564 AIR ARABIA PJSC 1.04 -0.96% 2,839 2,967 3,817 7,960 DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.16 -0.86% 2,420 2,820 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) UNION CEMENT CO PSC 1.35 -6.67% 4 6 77 INVEST BANK PSC 2.54 -5.51% 43 112 200 610 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.65 -1.54% 3,496 2,290 1,212 1,007 GULF CEMENT CO PSC 0.91 -1.10% 50 46 WAHA CAPITAL PJSC 1.69 -0.59% 1,039 1,761 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEVELOP 6.10 -4.92% 79,320 496,367 SOUTHERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO 54.00 -4.81% 176 9,747 18,358 SAUDI CERAMIC CO SJSC 29.00 -3.45% 338 9,976 58,177 AL SAMAANI FACTORY METAL INDUST 66.50 -3.16% 7 453 66 1,512 SAUDI INDUSTRIAL EXPORT CO SJSC 30.55 -3.11% 285 8,842 DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) 72.00 20.00% 4 0 ENERGY HOUSE HOLDING COMPANY 38.90 -8.48% 47 2 AJWAN GULF REAL ESTATE CO KSCP 73.60 19.57% 0 0 METAL AND RECYCLING CO KSCP 87.00 -8.05% 1 0 GULF FRANCHISING HOLDING CO KSCP 60.00 16.67% 9 1 BURGAN FOR WELL DRILLING TRADIN 89.00 -7.87% 5 0 YIACO MEDICAL COMPANY KPSC 161.00 12.42% 0 0 INTERNATIONAL RESORTS COMPANY 32.50 -5.54% 1,460 49 HAYAT COMMUNICATIONS CO KSCP 81.00 9.88% 335 26 AL-ENMAA REAL ESTATE COMPANY 43.00 -4.65% 2,829 125 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) SAUDI EGYPTIAN INVESTMENT 51.30 9.90% 48 2,371 CAIRO NATIONAL CO 4.84 -9.71% 2 13 SOUTH CAIRO AND GIZA MILLS 49.19 9.58% 4 183 RAYA CONTACT CENTER CO 14.99 -6.60% 80 1,241 SHOROUK FOR MODERN PRINTING 10.36 9.17% 1 10 RUBEX FOR PLASTIC MANUFACT 6.39 -5.95% 5 34 NASR CO FOR CIVIL WORKS SAE 17.93 9.04% 70 1,197 INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING CO 10.46 -4.49% 63 679 ASEC CO FOR MINING SAE 8.85 7.34% 700 5,981 ALEXANDRIA PORTLAND CEMENT CO 10.16 -4.43% 4 42 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATAR OMAN INVESTMENT CO QSC 8.10 2.47% 69 550 QATAR INSURANCE CO SAQ 68.10 -1.32% 180 12,362 WIDAM FOOD CO QSC 55.70 2.15% 32 1,785 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 51.40 -0.97% 1 68 QATAR INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 41.55 1.68% 0 18 UNITED DEVELOPMENT CO PSC 17.07 -0.59% 303 5,181 QATAR FUEL QSC 108.60 1.47% 40 4,321 DLALA BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT 18.96 -0.47% 21 393 BARWA REAL ESTATE CO QSC 32.45 1.23% 105 3,395 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 13.25 -0.38% 8 110 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.12 7.14% 0 15,602 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.11 3.60% 0 1,828 COMMERCIAL BANK OF DUBAI PSC 4.25 2.35% 42 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECOMM 5.25 1.71% DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.10 1.43% Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) FINANCE HOUSE PJSC 1.60 15.00% 2 2 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.77 3.90% 103 ABU DHABI NATIONAL HOTELS CO 3.10 3.23% METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE PSC 0.84 2.38% NATIONAL MARINE DREDGING PSC 4.50 2.22% 5 22 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI RESEARCH AND MARKETING 44.70 9.96% 1,045 44,588 ARAB SEA INFORMATION SYSTEMS CO 12.04 9.63% 16 186 SAUDI STEEL PIPES CO SJSC 15.42 8.30% 1,238 UNITED ELECTRONICS COMPANY JSC 36.90 8.13% 1,638 BAAZEEM TRADING COMPANY CJSC 23.58 7.29% Close (fils) * WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY KSCP Dubai Top Gainers Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Qatar Egypt Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Wednesday , July 12, 2017 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 80,956 101.20 -0.2% 10.6% 4,136 111,617 105.40 76.00 15 1.9 5.9% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,559 17.55 0.6% -6.6% 709 3,387 20.20 17.10 17 3.4 4.6% 3 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 39,358 73.80 1.0% 0.0% 108 2,133 78.90 51.00 0 0.0 0.0% 4 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 32,197 128.50 1.2% -13.2% 239 8,351 157.27 121.70 9 1.7 2.5% 5 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 30,266 10.20 0.0% 2.1% 1,169 3,247 11.55 8.30 10 1.2 4.4% 6 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 28,122 64.90 0.5% 3.0% 2,261 39,137 71.70 48.60 13 2.1 3.5% 7 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 27,305 51.20 0.2% 20.2% 615 8,397 58.00 32.00 11 1.7 3.1% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 26,531 23.88 1.5% 6.6% 1,747 11,127 26.05 14.30 12 1.4 2.9% 9 Almarai Co SJSC SA 18,175 85.20 1.2% 24.4% 177 4,013 98.30 51.50 34 5.3 1.1% 10 DP World Ltd AE 17,513 21.10 0.0% 20.5% 234 1,344 23.85 15.53 18 2.0 1.8% 11 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 17,348 70.00 -0.4% -6.4% 280 5,219 76.00 46.00 75 6.3 0.0% 12 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 15,735 50.50 0.0% 29.5% 788 10,608 53.80 27.80 836 2.3 0.0% 13 Industries Qatar QSC QA 15,723 95.80 0.8% -18.5% 113 2,955 122.00 91.10 18 1.8 4.2% 14 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 15,167 7.78 0.5% 9.1% 1,906 4,037 8.08 6.37 10 1.3 1.9% 15 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 13,407 686.00 0.1% 10.8% 2,102 4,771 723.81 523.81 14 1.3 4.2% 16 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,173 24.70 -0.7% 1.4% 389 2,562 27.10 15.90 10 1.1 3.8% 17 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 12,258 8.10 1.3% -4.6% 150 331 9.00 7.60 7 0.8 4.9% 18 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 10,299 25.75 0.4% 3.0% 40 276 28.40 16.40 10 1.2 2.7% 19 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 10,009 31.15 -0.2% 0.0% 320 2,662 32.10 18.00 11 1.2 3.4% 20 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 10,007 7.07 1.6% 2.5% 1,645 3,167 7.68 5.66 9 1.2 5.7% 21 Kingdom Holding Co SA 9,872 9.99 0.4% -16.4% 68 182 12.95 9.80 69 1.3 5.0% 22 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 9,388 493.00 1.2% 0.4% 3,088 5,037 572.73 400.00 13 1.6 0.0% 23 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 8,743 12.15 0.7% -19.6% 278 917 20.24 10.72 15 1.0 4.1% 24 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 8,717 2.46 0.4% -6.1% 2,482 1,662 3.00 2.38 17 1.9 4.1% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 8,640 10.80 -0.6% 0.0% 920 2,651 11.80 8.55 10 0.9 0.0% 26 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 8,576 5.80 0.0% 0.0% 1 1 11.95 1.57 106 4.6 0.0% 27 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 8,138 40.00 0.4% 6.4% 223 2,422 45.40 33.05 15 2.6 5.0% 28 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 8,130 54.20 1.1% 0.4% 285 4,126 61.75 39.90 12 1.9 5.5% 29 Ooredoo QSC QA 7,890 90.80 -0.2% -10.8% 66 1,635 116.10 88.20 15 1.3 3.9% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,670 5.70 1.4% 2.3% 5,473 8,494 6.29 5.01 9 1.2 7.9% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 560,871 3.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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