Malaysian Markets Weekly Wrap - Week Ended 10 November

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP : Week ended 10 November 2017  Driven by higher oil prices and a firmer Ringgit, the FBM KLCI touched the week’s intraday high of 1,751 points on Tuesday. The index subsequently closed 0.1% higher for the week.  Key Event Ahead: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 12 – 13 Dec 2017 1. Stock Market Commentary Market Comments Regional After hitting record highs last week, selected regional markets eased on profit-taking activities. Sentiment was also cautious following the softening of global markets. Selected markets such as South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia registered weekly losses of less than 1% each, while the Hong Kong and China ‘H’ Share markets remained well-supported. Wall Street After hitting a new high of 23,563 points on Wednesday amid optimism over the proposed tax reform plan, the Dow eased to close at 23,422 points for a weekly loss of 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq edged down by 0.2% to close at 6,751 points for the week. Europe The STOXX Europe 50 Index declined by 1.8% amid concerns over a slowdown in corporate earnings growth. Selected Markets’ Weekly Performances 1,741 13,027 17,435 % Weekly change +0.1 +0.02 -0.2 % YTD change +6.1 +8.5 +18.2 3,420 6,022 1,689 3,382 6,040 1,701 +1.1 -0.3 -0.7 +18.7 +13.7 +9.5 North Asia Hong Kong China*, H Share MSCI FEXJ# TOPIX (Japan) South Korea Taiwan 29,121 11,746 665 1,800 2,543 10,733 28,604 11,602 660 1,794^ 2,558 10,801 +1.8 +1.2 +0.8 +0.4 -0.6 -0.6 +32.4 +25.0 +37.4 +18.6 +25.5 +16.0 Global Nasdaq Dow Jones Europe** 6,751 23,422 3,178 6,764 23,539 3,237 -0.2 -0.5 -1.8 +25.4 +18.5 +5.5 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 1,742 13,030 17,395 South-East Asia Singapore Indonesia Thailand FBM KLCI FBM EMAS Shariah Index FBM Small Cap Index * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ** STOXX Europe 50 Index # in USD ^ As at 2 Nov 17 Page 1 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Regional Markets Closed Mixed on Profit-Taking Activities
2. Economic Commentary Market Commentary Malaysia - At its recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 9 November 2017 , Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.00% and stated that it may review the current degree of monetary accommodation, given the strength of global and domestic economic conditions. - Industrial production growth moderated to a 3-month low of 4.7% in September from 6.8% in August on the back of slower manufacturing and mining output. Fig 1. Malaysia's Industrial Production Index YoY % 8.0 YoY % 10.0 8.0 4.7% 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Sep-17 6.8% 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Industrial Production Index (LHS) Manufacturing Output (RHS) May-17 Jul-17 Mining Output (RHS) - On a weekly basis, the Ringgit firmed by 1.0% to close at a near 7-week high of RM4.19 against the US$. On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit appreciated by 7.0% against the greenback. U.S. - Based on preliminary estimates, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 97.8 in October from 100.7 in September amid higher inflation and interest rate expectations in the U.S. China - Export growth softened to 6.9% in October from 8.1% in September due to slower exports to the U.S. Likewise, import growth eased to 17.2% from 18.6% over the same period. The trade surplus widened by 33.6% to US$38.2 billion in October from the preceding month. Indonesia - Indonesia’s GDP growth edged up from 5.0% in 2Q2017 to 5.1% in 3Q2017 amid firmer investment spending. Commodity - On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil prices rose by 2.3% to close at US$63.52/brl amid political uncertainties in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices increased by 2.0% to close at US$56.74/brl over the same period. - The CRB Commodity Price Index, which measures a broad range of commodities such as food, metals and raw materials, closed 0.5% higher at 431.36 points. Brent oil price CRB Index Selected Weekly Commodity Prices Level % Weekly change US$63.52/brl +2.3% 431.36 points +0.5% % YTD change +5.6% +2.0% Page 2 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 2.
3. Regional & Global GDP Statistics Source: Bloomberg 2017F 6.8 6.5 5.1 5.2 3.4 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.5 1.5 2.2 2.2 2016 6.7 6.9 5.0 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.0 1.5 1.8 2018F 6.4 6.6 5.4 4.8 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.8 3.5 1.1 2.4 1.8 MARKET BRIEF GDP Growth (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Inflation Statistics Inflation rate (%) China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Taiwan Australia Thailand Japan U.S. Eurozone 2017F 1.6 3.1 3.9 3.8 1.7 0.8 2.0 0.8 2.0 0.7 0.5 2.1 1.5 2016 2.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.4 -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 -0.1 1.3 0.2 2018F 2.2 3.5 3.6 2.5 2.5 1.2 2.0 1.2 2.2 1.4 0.8 2.1 1.4 Source: Bloomberg f=consensus forecast Regional & Global Markets’ Valuations Australia China ‘H’ Shares Hong Kong Shanghai Comp Thailand Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Japan South Korea U.S.(1) Europe Historic P/E(2) (x) 14.60 10.84 12.73 15.86 12.84 14.27 15.28 16.10 14.78 17.51 11.32 17.27(3) 13.93(3) Prospective P/E (x) 16.53 8.98 13.23 14.86 16.81 15.66 15.13 20.45 17.79 15.92 10.94 19.37 15.92 Estimated Dividend Yield (%) 4.26 3.42 3.41 1.93 2.81 3.19 3.76 1.45 2.03 1.87 1.53 1.93 3.83 Source: Bloomberg, 10 Nov 17 (1) S&P500 Index (2) 2007-2016 historical average (3) 1997-2016 historical average Page 3 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
4.  On the regional front, President Trump’s recent visit to China was viewed positively as it could help to alleviate trade tensions between the two nations. China’s move to open up its financial sector by allowing foreign investors to own up to 51% of Chinese firms involved in the securities, funds and futures markets (compared to the 25% limit currently) will also encourage investments into China’s financial markets.  On the local front, the central bank’s statement that it may review its monetary policy suggests that a potential hike in the OPR may be forthcoming sometime next year. In view of rising fuel-based inflationary pressures, a rate hike may help to contain inflation in the coming months. As at 10 November 2017, the local market traded slightly below its historical average P/E ratio: - P/E valuation: prospective P/E ratio of 16.3x was below the 10-year historical average of 16.4x. - Dividend yield: 3.32% was above the 12-month FD rate of 3.11%*. The average P/E ratio of the regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, was above its 10-year historical average: - The average FD rate offered by four key domestic banks Bursa Securities’ Market Valuations FBM KLCI PER (x) Dividend Yield 3mth InterBk 12mth FD ^ 10 Nov 17 1,742 16.28 3.32% 3.43% 3.10% 2007-2016 historical average 3 Nov 17 1,741 16.25 3.30% 3.43% 3.10% 10-yr av.^ 16.43 3.56% 3.27% - Source: Bloomberg Bursa Securities' 10-Year P/E Ratio MSCI FE ex-Japan's 10-Year P/E Ratio 25 20 15 10 Average: 16.4x 5 10 Nov 17 P/E: 14.3x P/E Ratio (x) 10 Nov 17 P/E: 16.3x 20 P/E Ratio (x) * Regional P/E valuations: 14.3x versus the 10-year historical average of 13.5x. 15 10 Average: 13.5x 5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Page 4 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF 3. Market Outlook & Valuations  Global and regional markets eased on mild profit-taking activities last week after hitting multiyear record highs. With 2017 coming to an end, investors are expected to rebalance their portfolios and review the market outlook for 2018.
5. 4 . Bond Market Commentary & Outlook U.S. Treasuries (UST) - For the week ended 10 November 2017, UST yields closed higher on the back of profit-taking activities. The 10-year UST yield rose by 7 basis points (bps) to close at 2.40% over the week. Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) - The MGS benchmark yields ended higher in response to BNM’s hawkish statement on the possibility of increasing the OPR in 2018. The 10-year MGS yield rose by 10 bps to close at 4.06% for the week. Local Corporate Bonds & Bond Funds’ Performance - The bond funds continued to register positive performances amid resilient corporate bonds prices over the week. Foreign Exchange Weekly Changes of Selected Currencies versus the US$ Currency per Weekly % US$ change Ringgit 4.19 +1.0 Japanese Yen 113 +0.6 Singapore Dollar 1.36 +0.1 Australian Dollar 1.30 +0.1 Euro 0.86 +0.1 Thai Baht 33.12 +0.003 Chinese Yuan 6.64 -0.2 Indonesia Rupiah 13,545 -0.3 Korean Won 1,119 -0.4 Dollar Index* 94.39 -0.6 YTD % change +7.0 +3.0 +6.2 +6.1 +10.5 +8.1 +4.6 -0.9 +7.4 -7.6 Source: Bloomberg *An index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Bond Market Outlook - In the medium term, global bond investors will continue to assess the potential impact of the monetary policy outlook of the U.S Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on global bond yields. - In the Malaysian bond market, market participants will be vigilant on the timing and quantum of a potential OPR hike in 2018 following BNM’s hawkish statement at its recent meeting. Investors will also continue to monitor the movement of global bond yields and the pace of further Federal funds rate hikes. Page 5 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET BRIEF Commentary
6. Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields KLIBOR U.S. T Bill U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Note MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp U.S. T Bond MGS 'AAA' Corp 'AA' Corp 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 3 Month Interest Rates 3.43 3.43 1.22 1.17 3 Year 1.78 1.73 3.49 3.49 4.25 4.24 4.45 4.49 5 Year 2.05 1.99 3.76 3.71 4.47 4.45 4.63 4.67 10 Year 2.40 2.33 4.06 3.96 4.74 4.74 4.94 4.98 % change* +5 MARKET BRIEF (in %) +5 +1 -4 +6 +5 +2 -4 +7 +10 -4 * in basis points Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Page 6 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
7. Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds * Local Funds 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark Invest in Local Market Only PIX 0.6664 0.6657 +0.1 PRSF 0.6169 0.6139 +0.5 PSSF 0.2870 0.2869 +0.03 POGF 0.3101 0.3099 +0.1 PRSSQF 0.2650 0.2648 +0.1 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV PSF 0.5440 0.5425 +0.3 PGF 0.4766 0.4762 +0.1 PINDGF 0.5191 0.5197 -0.1 PAGF 0.6449 0.6444 +0.1 PBF 0.6712 0.6712 P SmallCap 0.8838 0.8816 +0.2 PEF 0.2566 0.2560 +0.2 PFSF 0.2919 0.2905 +0.5 PDSF 0.2772 0.2762 +0.4 PSA30F 0.2950 0.2949 +0.03 PBBF 0.7911 0.7922 -0.1 PBGF 0.8083 0.8099 -0.2 PBGSQF 0.2804 0.2803 +0.04 PSSCF 0.3430 0.3420 +0.3 PBMAC 0.2652 0.2652 PBBSQF 0.2640 0.2637 +0.1 PSMACF 0.2911 0.2900 +0.4 PSMAGF 0.2754 0.2742 +0.4 PSTGF 0.2996 0.2965 +1.0 PBDBEF 0.2756 0.2747 +0.3 PSTEF 0.3029 0.3010 +0.6 PAVGEF 0.2923 0.2925 -0.1 PGRBF 0.2785 0.2771 +0.5 PBSCGF 0.2761 0.2744 +0.6 PEMOF 0.2824 0.2814 +0.4 PBMAGRF 0.2797 0.2770 +1.0 PeFAF 0.2561 0.2550 +0.4 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 -0.2 +0.1 +0.5 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 -0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1 +0.2 +0.3 +0.1 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 Local Islamic Funds 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark Invest in Local Market Only PISSF 0.2630 0.2624 +0.2 PISTF 0.3491 0.3501 -0.3 PIOGF 0.2798 0.2805 -0.2 PISEF 0.3783 0.3783 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV P Ittikal 0.8594 0.8617 -0.3 PIEF 0.3467 0.3463 +0.1 PIOF 0.4591 0.4591 PIMXAF 0.2576 0.2572 +0.2 PIDF 0.3665 0.3667 -0.1 PIA40GF 0.3011 0.3006 +0.2 PISVF 0.3069 0.3083 -0.5 PITGF 0.3068 0.3063 +0.2 PITSEQ 0.3107 0.3110 -0.1 PBIEF 0.2667 0.2677 -0.4 PISGIF 0.2462 0.2470 -0.3 PESMACF 0.2740 0.2727 +0.5 PESMAGF 0.3179 0.3154 +0.8 PIENTEF 0.2606 0.2602 +0.2 PIAVGEF 0.2923 0.2882 +1.4 PIGRBF 0.2873 0.2866 +0.2 PIEMOF 0.2971 0.2958 +0.4 PBISCF 0.2558 0.2555 +0.1 +0.02 +0.3 +0.02 +0.02 +0.02 +0.02 -0.4 +0.03 +0.02 +0.1 +0.02 +0.3 +0.02 +0.02 +0.02 +0.04 +0.02 +0.04 -0.01 +0.02 +0.3 -0.4 Public Mutual's Private Retirement Scheme Funds Performance PRS-GRF PRS-MDF PRS-CVF PRS-IGRF PRS-IMDF PRS-ICVF PRS-EQF PRS-SEQF PRS-ISEQF 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 0.2704 0.2793 0.2729 0.3075 0.2921 0.2669 0.3024 0.3143 0.2947 0.2704 0.2793 0.2727 0.3071 0.2906 0.2671 0.3012 0.3138 0.2959 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.5 +0.1 -0.1 +0.1 +0.4 +0.1 +0.2 +0.2 -0.4 +0.1 PFES PRSEC PGSF PFEDF PFEBF PTAF PCSF PFEPRF PSEASF PFECTF PCTF PFETIF PWEF PAUEF PFA30F PINDOSF PBAEF PBADF PBEPEF PBCPEF PBCAEF PBCAUEF PBSGA30EF PBAPENTF PBAREIF PBADBF PBINDOBF PSGEF PBAEGF PBDYNAF PBGEF PSTBLF POEF PBADSQF PNVGF PBAPDF 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 0.3585 0.2866 0.3374 0.3210 0.3078 0.3957 0.3534 0.3040 0.2920 0.3132 0.3601 0.3765 0.2456 0.2784 0.4658 0.2953 0.3371 0.3149 0.3074 0.3538 0.4332 0.2935 0.3113 0.3697 0.3314 0.2823 0.2697 0.3101 0.3456 1.4544 0.3069 0.2881 0.3166 0.2755 0.2839 0.2496 0.3586 0.2883 0.3427 0.3226 0.3072 0.3928 0.3501 0.3032 0.2939 0.3119 0.3567 0.3771 0.2499 0.2777 0.4636 0.3000 0.3353 0.3171 0.3111 0.3496 0.4298 0.2906 0.3129 0.3702 0.3317 0.2816 0.2728 0.3115 0.3420 1.4492 0.3103 0.2891 0.3152 0.2773 0.2814 0.2515 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark -0.03 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 +0.2 -0.1 +0.7 -0.2 +0.9 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2 -0.6 -0.6 +0.4 +0.6 +1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -1.7 -1.5 +0.3 +0.4 +0.5 +0.3 -1.6 -1.7 +0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.2 -1.1 +1.2 +0.4 +0.8 +0.4 +1.0 +0.9 -0.5 +0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.3 -1.1 -1.3 -0.4 +0.3 +1.1 -0.3 +0.4 -0.2 -1.1 -1.2 -0.3 -0.7 +0.4 +0.2 -0.6 -0.5 +0.9 +0.1 -0.8 -0.9 Foreign Islamic Funds PAIF PIADF PIATAF PCIF PIALEF PBIAEF PBIASSF PIOEF PISGEF 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 0.3870 0.3718 0.3948 0.3231 0.4075 0.3340 0.3122 0.3078 0.2493 0.3861 0.3722 0.3952 0.3210 0.4069 0.3339 0.3112 0.3063 0.2501 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.2 +0.4 -0.1 +0.2 -0.1 +0.2 +0.7 +0.9 +0.1 +0.2 +0.03 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.5 +0.1 -0.3 -1.1 Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance P BOND PI BOND PIN BOND PEBF PSBF PIEBF PISBF PIINCOME PBFI PBIBF PBINFBF PIINFBF PSTBF PISTBF PSKF PBBOND PBSKF PENTBF PBASF 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 0.9376 0.9592 1.0061 1.0475 1.0225 1.1344 1.0328 1.0462 1.0508 1.1332 1.0736 1.0751 1.0752 1.0626 1.0412 1.0418 1.0483 1.0163 1.0677 0.9375 0.9586 1.0061 1.0469 1.0221 1.1290 1.0320 1.0458 1.0506 1.1325 1.0730 1.0745 1.0748 1.0619 1.0408 1.0412 1.0477 1.0162 1.0670 % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.01 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.5 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.02 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.04 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.01 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance PMMF PIMMF PeCDF PeICDF PBCMF PBCPF PBICMF PBICPF *Buying price 10 Nov 17 3 Nov 17 1.0194 1.0225 1.0010 1.0011 1.0126 1.0014 1.0104 1.0009 1.0188 1.0219 1.0004 1.0004 1.0120 1.0007 1.0097 1.0003 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. % Weekly Change Fund Benchmark +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 Page 7 of 12 FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Foreign Funds
8. 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 October 2017 Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # 0.7 1.7 0.7 3.2 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.5 1.7 0.9 3.4 3.9 4.0 1.8 0.1 4.5 1.2 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 6.6 6.0 6.2 6.0 7.1 6.8 8.0 6.9 7.6 0.2 -0.8 -0.04 Moderate Moderate Low 6.2 6.3 6.2 Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV Public Islamic Alpha-40 Growth Fund (PIA40GF) Public Islamic Dividend Fund (PIDF) Public Islamic Equity Fund (PIEF) Public Islamic Growth & Income Fund (PISGIF) Public Ittikal Fund (P ITTIKAL) Public Ittikal Sequel Fund (PITSEQ) Public Islamic Savings Fund (PISVF) PB Islamic Equity Fund (PBIEF) 2.6 2.1 2.6 0.5 1.8 2.0 3.7 2.8 Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate 6.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.6 Small & Mid Cap Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Islamic Select Treasures Fund 6.0 High 8.4 3.8 5.9 3.3 8.3 2.7 Moderate High Moderate Moderate High 7.3 8.1 7.1 7.7 8.4 Fund Name I. EQUITY FUNDS Non Regional Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Index Fund Public Optimal Growth Fund Public Regular Savings Fund Public Sector Select Fund (PIX) (POGF) (PRSF) (PSSF) Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV Public Aggressive Growth Fund (PAGF) Public Dividend Select Fund (PDSF) Public Equity Fund (PEF) Public Growth Fund (PGF) Public Industry Growth Fund (PINDGF) Public Savings Fund (PSF) Public Select Alpha-30 Fund (PSA30F) PB Growth Fund (PBGF) PB Growth Sequel Fund (PBGSQF) Islamic Non Regional Funds Invest in Local Market Only Public Islamic Optimal Growth Fund Public Islamic Sector Select Fund Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund (PIOGF) (PISSF) (PISEF) (PISTF) Allowed to Invest in Foreign Markets up to 25%/30% of Fund's NAV Public Focus Select Fund (PFSF) Public SmallCap Fund (P SmallCap) Public Strategic SmallCap Fund (PSSCF) Public Islamic Opportunities Fund (PIOF) Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund (PITGF) Page 8 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Return and Volatility Measures for Public Mutual’s Funds For the 3 Years Period Ended 31 October 2017
9. Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # (PAUEF) (PCSF) (PCTF) (PFA30F) (PFECTF) (PFEDF) (PFEPRF) (PFES) (PFETIF) (PINDOSF) (PRSEC) (PSGEF) (PSEASF) (PBAEGF) (PBADF) (PBAEF) (PBAPENTF) (PBCAEF) (PBCAUEF) (PBCPEF) (PBSGA30EF) 4.5 21.9 15.6 21.2 7.9 12.7 7.1 16.7 7.2 7.9 12.7 10.0 7.9 12.7 8.9 16.5 13.2 18.5 15.5 22.8 9.2 Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Very High High Very High High Very High High High Moderate High Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High 12.0 13.9 14.7 11.2 9.4 10.6 8.4 12.0 9.1 13.7 10.4 10.9 8.1 10.5 7.3 9.7 11.0 12.0 13.2 14.2 11.2 (PAIF) (PCIF) (PIADF) (PIALEF) (PBIAEF) (PBIASSF) 15.3 14.1 13.3 15.1 15.0 14.5 High High High High High High 9.3 10.4 8.6 10.2 9.4 9.5 (PGSF) (PWEF) (PBEPEF) 13.6 3.4 14.0 High High High 9.5 10.1 9.4 (PBF) (PFEBF) (PTAF) (PBAREIF) (PBADBF) (PBBF) (PBBSQF) (PBDYNAF) (PBINDOBF) (PBMAC) 2.8 10.1 17.1 6.2 4.1 4.0 1.9 12.2 7.5 3.7 Low Moderate High Low Moderate Low Low High Very High Low 4.4 7.7 9.5 5.6 7.8 4.3 4.3 9.7 10.6 3.4 (PIMXAF) (PIATAF) 0.8 13.5 Low High 5.5 9.1 Fund Name Regional Funds Public Australia Equity Fund Public China Select Fund Public China Titans Fund Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund Public Far-East Consumer Themes Fund Public Far-East Dividend Fund Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund Public Far-East Select Fund Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund Public Indonesia Select Fund Public Regional Sector Fund Public Singapore Equity Fund Public South-East Asia Select Fund PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund PB ASEAN Dividend Fund PB Asia Equity Fund PB Asia Pacific Enterprises Fund PB China ASEAN Equity Fund PB China Australia Equity Fund PB China Pacific Equity Fund PB Singapore Advantage-30 Equity Fund Islamic Regional Funds Public Asia Ittikal Fund Public China Ittikal Fund Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund PB Islamic Asia Strategic Sector Fund Global Funds Public Global Select Fund Public Worldwide Equity Fund PB Euro Pacific Equity Fund II. BALANCED FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Balanced Fund Public Far-East Balanced Fund Public Tactical Allocation Fund PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund PB Australia Dynamic Balanced Fund PB Balanced Fund PB Balanced Sequel Fund PB Dynamic Allocation Fund PB Indonesia Balanced Fund PB Mixed Asset Conservative Fund Islamic Funds Public Islamic Mixed Asset Fund Public Islamic Asia Tactical Allocation Fund Page 9 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 October 2017
10. III . BOND FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Bond Fund (PBOND) 4.2 Public Enhanced Bond Fund (PEBF) 4.0 Public Enterprises Bond Fund (PENTBF) 4.3 Public Institutional Bond Fund (PIN Bond) 3.9 Public Select Bond Fund (PSBF) 3.7 Public Strategic Bond Fund (PSTBF) 4.1 PB Bond Fund (PBBOND) 4.2 PB Fixed Income Fund (PBFI) 4.3 PB Infrastructure Bond Fund (PBINFBF) 4.3 Islamic Funds Public Islamic Bond Fund (PI BOND) 4.6 Public Islamic Enhanced Bond Fund (PIEBF) 4.3 Public Islamic Income Fund (PI INCOME) 3.6 Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund (PIINFBF) 4.5 Public Islamic Select Bond Fund (PISBF) 4.0 Public Islamic Strategic Bond Fund (PISTBF) 3.8 Public Sukuk Fund (PSKF) 4.3 PB Aiman Sukuk Fund (PBASF) 4.8 PB Islamic Bond Fund (PBIBF) 4.7 PB Sukuk Fund (PBSKF) 4.3 IV. MONEY MARKET FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Money Market Fund (PMMF) 3.4 PB Cash Management Fund (PBCMF) 3.3 PB Cash Plus Fund (PBCPF) 3.4 Islamic Funds Public Islamic Money Market Fund (PIMMF) 3.3 PB Islamic Cash Management Fund (PBICMF) 3.2 PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund (PBICPF) 3.2 V. PRS FUNDS Non Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Growth Fund (PRS-GRF) 2.3 Public Mutual PRS Moderate Fund (PRS-MDF) 3.3 Public Mutual PRS Conservative Fund (PRS-CVF) 3.5 Islamic Funds Public Mutual PRS Islamic Growth Fund (PRS-IGRF) 6.2 Public Mutual PRS Islamic Moderate Fund (PRS-IMDF) 4.3 Public Mutual PRS Islamic Conservative Fund (PRS-ICVF) 3.5 * PB series of funds are highlighted to differentiate them from the Public series of funds # Based on the fund’s portfolio returns as at 29 September 2017 (Source: Lipper) Fund Volatility Class (FVC) 3-Year Fund Volatility Factor (FVF) # Very Low Very Low Very Low n.a. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.9 1.5 1.3 n.a. 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.8 Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Very Low Low 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 Very Low Very Low Very Low 0.1 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Annualised Return = compounded annual rate of return of the fund over the specific period. The Volatility Factor (VF) means there is a possibility for the fund in generating an upside return or downside return around this VF. The Volatility Class (VC) is assigned by Lipper based on quintile ranks of VF for qualified funds. VF is subject to monthly revision and VC is revised every six months. The volatility banding for the “Very Low”, “Low”, “Moderate”, “High” and “Very High” VCs as at 30 June 2017 are 0.000 ≤ VF ≤ 1.870, 1.870 < VF ≤ 6.225, 6.225 < VF ≤ 8.225, 8.225 < VF ≤ 10.735 and VF more than 10.735 respectively. For this period to 31 December 2017 the VCs for the funds are based on the VFs of the respective funds as at 30 June 2017. The fund’s portfolio may have changed since this date and there is no guarantee that the fund will continue to have the same VF or VC in the future. Presently, only funds launched in the market for at least 36 months will display the VF and its VC. Page 10 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FUND PERFORMANCE REVIEW Fund Name 3 Year Annualised Return Ended 31 October 2017
11. Glossary Definition Price Earnings Ratio The Price Earnings Ratio (PER) is the ratio of a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share. The PER of the market is derived from the aggregate market capitalisation divided by the total net profits of the listed companies in the relevant market. Dividend yield is the ratio of a company’s dividend per share to its stock price. The dividend yield of the market is computed as the total gross dividends of the market divided by the aggregate market capitalisation. A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The inflation rate measures the change in the general level of prices for goods and services. Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator which shows the production of output from industrial activities such as mining, manufacturing and utilities. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey-based index that indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are expanding while a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activities are contracting. The consumer confidence index measures the level of consumers’ sentiment regarding the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. An improving trend in the consumer confidence index suggests that consumer spending may be rising. A fiscal deficit arises when a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it collects. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is an overnight interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia. It is the interest rate that a borrower bank has to pay to a lending bank for the funds borrowed. Increasing the OPR will result in higher interest rates for the economy. There are two main yield calculations. (1) Current yield is calculated by dividing a bond’s coupon by its market price or valuation. A bond’s yield moves inversely to its price. (2) Yield-to-maturity is the return attributable to investors if the bond is held to maturity. A government policy that aims to reduce the budget deficit over time. This is implemented through measures to increase taxes and/or reduce government spending. In general, the lower the budget deficit, the lower the potential supply of government bonds to be issued to finance the government’s budget deficit. Dividend yield GDP Inflation IPI PMI Consumer Confidence Index Fiscal deficit OPR Bond yields Fiscal consolidation Page 11 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
12. THE CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT ARE STRICTLY FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND NO PART OF THIS REPORT IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO INVEST IN PUBLIC MUTUAL ’S FUNDS. This Weekly Wrap report summarises the movement of the equity and bond markets as well as the funds’ performance for the period under review and is intended for circulation to the unitholders of Public Mutual. The Market Brief is prepared based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but Public Mutual does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The Fund Performance Review summarises the fund’s weekly performance compared against its benchmark. The fund’s 3-year return together with its volatility class and factor (as at the end of the previous month) are shown to give readers a better perspective of the fund’s longer term performance and its risk. Readers should note that past performance of a fund is not an indication of its future performance. No part of this report may be shared, reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed or published in any manner without the written consent of Public Mutual. Public Mutual does not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report. Page 12 of 12 Copyright © Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.