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Indonesia: Business Survey Quarter I 2019

IM Insights
By IM Insights
7 years ago
Indonesia: Business Survey Quarter I 2019

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  1. QUARTER I-2019 Business Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia reported stronger growth in the first quarter of 2019 compare to previous quarter . The upswing was reflected the Weighted Net Balance (WNB) of 8,65%, up from 6,19% in the previous quarter. The agricultural, plantation, livestock, forestry and fisheries sector was the main driver of growth, predominantly led by food crop activity induced by the upcoming harvesting season. Business Activity Production Capacity, Labour and Financial Condition Business Optimism BUSINESS ACTIVITY INCREASED Inline with the increasing business activity, production capacity and labour utilisation were reported to increase. Businesses also maintained sound liquidity and profitability during the first quarter of 2019, with relatively easy access to credit. Respondent predicted the upward trend of business activity to persist into second quarter of 2019, reflecting an increase in the WNB to 21,42%. The growing business activities were predicted to occur in all economic sectors, especially services sector and manufacturing industry. Inline with the build up optimism in the business activity, labour utilisation and investment activities were also predicted to increase compared to condition in the first quarter of 2019. A. Business Activity Business activity accelerated in the first quarter of 2019. Business Survey The Business Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia showed how business activity accelerated in the first quarter of 2019, as confirmed by an increase in the WNB of business activity to 8.65% from 6.19% in the fourth quarter of 2018 (Graph 1). By economic sector, the main business activity gains were posted by Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing Activities (WNB 2.43%) on the back of seasonal factors at the onset of the harvesting period, for foodstuffs in particular. Furthermore, Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service Activities also expanded business activities (WNB 1.49%) along with Manufacturing (WNB 1.00%). 1
  2. Graph 1 Respondents predicted business activity to continue expanding in the second quarter of 2019 . Business Activity Respondents predicted business activity to continue expanding in the second quarter of 2019, as reflected by a significant increase in the WNB to 21.42%. By sector, the gains come amidst an expansion of Services (WNB 3.84%), Manufacturing (WNB 3.73%) as well as Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service Activities (WNB 3.14%). B. Production Capacity Average production capacity utilisation increased on the previous period. Consistent with increasing business activity, average production capacity utilisation ticked upwards in the first quarter of 2019 to 76.10% from 75.18% in the previous period (Graph 2). By sector, the Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector, maintained the highest level of average production capacity utilisation at 79.91%, contrasting Mining and Quarrying with the lowest, averaging 71.41%. Graph 2 Business Survey Capacity Utilisation 2
  3. C . Financial Conditions and Access to Credit Businesses maintained sound financial conditions in the first quarter of 2019 with relatively unrestricted access to credit. Businesses maintained sound financial conditions in the first quarter of 2019, as indicated by a Net Balance (NB) of corporate liquidity recorded at 26.68%. The majority of survey respondents (61.66%) confirmed normal liquidity dynamics in the reporting period, while 32.51% stated that liquidity had improved and only 5.83% conceded that corporate liquidity had deteriorated compared with conditions in the previous period. Congruent with liquidity dynamics, corporate sector profitability was maintained in the first quarter of 2019 with a NB of 23.73%. Most respondents (61.16%) confirmed that profitability conditions had remained normal in the first period of 2019, while 31.29% of respondents reported an increase and only 7.56% acknowledged a dip in profitability compared with the previous period. Regarding access to bank loans, most respondents stated that credit was still accessible in the first quarter of 2019 despite a moderate decline in the corresponding NB to 6.05% from 6.26% in the previous period. Consistent with the maintained financial standing, the majority of respondents (84.10%) confirmed that access to bank loans remained normal in the reporting period, while 10.97% thought that accessibility had improved and 4.92% argued that access had become more restricted compared with conditions three months earlier. D. Labour Utilisation Labour utilisation accelerated in the first quarter of 2019. An increase in the WNB from 1.94% in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 2.37% indicated that labour utilisation accelerated in the first quarter of 2019 to fuel expanding business activity (Graph 3). By economic sector, the main contributors to increasing labour utilisation were the Manufacturing Industry (WNB 0.70%) congruent with the expansion of manufacturing business activities. Increasing labor utiliastion also confirmed by respondents at Services sector (WNB 0.49%). Respondents predicted labour utilisation to continue increasing in the second quarter of 2019. Based on expectations of expansive business activity, the survey respondents predicted labour utilisation to continue increasing in the second quarter of 2019. Such developments were explained by an increase in the WNB to 4.84% from 2.37% in the first quarter of 2019. By sector, respondents expected Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities as well as Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services to record the highest levels of labour utilisation, with respective WNB of 1.09% and 1.08%. E. Selling Prices Producers reported milder price pressures in the first quarter of 2019 yet predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in the second quarter of 2019. Business Survey Producers reported milder price pressures in the first quarter of 2019, as evidenced by a decline in the WNB to 15.34% from 17.41% in the previous period (Graph 4). By sector, price pressures were primarily observed to ease in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector, with the corresponding WNB decreasing to 1.84% from 4.14% in the fourth quarter of 2018 due to increasing supply during the harvesting season. Respondents predicted an accumulation of inflationary pressures on selling prices in the second quarter of 2019 (WNB 17.66%) due to seasonal factors, namely Ramadan and Eidul-Fitr. The escalation of price pressures was primarily expected to occur in the manufacturing industry, with the WNB increasing to 4.72% from 3.84% in the first quarter of 2019. 3
  4. Graph 3 Labour Utilisation Graph 4 Selling Price F . Inflation Respondents predicted inflation in 2019 at 3.49%. Based on the latest Business Survey, the respondents predicted inflation in 2019 at 3.49% (yoy), which is still within the target corridor of 3.5%±1%. By sector, respondents in Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service Activities anticipated the highest rate, averaging 3.60%, contrasting the lowest rate of 3.44% forecasted by respondents in the Services sector. G. Investment Businesses expanded investment activity in the first quarter of 2019. Businesses expanded investment activity in the first quarter of 2019, albeit at a slower pace than recorded in the previous period. This was demonstrated by a decrease in the WNB of investment to 9.62% in the first quarter of 2019 from 10.51% in the previous period (Table 7 – Appendix). By sector, Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services posted the strongest investment growth (WNB 2.07%), followed by the Manufacturing Industry (WNB 1.79%). Consonant with business optimism, respondents predicted investment activity to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019, as indicated by an increase in the WNB to 13.41% from 9.62% in the first quarter of 2019. By sector, the Manufacturing Industry (WNB 2.60%) as well as Mining and Quarrying (WNB 2.54%) were expected to lead investment activity in the second quarter of 2019. H. Wages On average, wages are increasing in the first semester of 2019. On average, wages/salaries are increasing in the first semester of 2019, with the corresponding NB recorded at 41.66% (Table 8 – Appendix). Respondents confirmed that rising wages/salaries are a corollary of corporate payroll policy in accordance with the minimum provincial wage taking into consideration worker productivity and the business outlook. By sector, respondents in the Manufacturing Industry (NB 50.06%) as well as Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities (NB 47.45%) disclosed plans to raise wages/salaries in the first semester of 2019. According to the Business Survey, foreman/supervisor level salaries averaged Rp4.2 million per month in the first semester of 2019, with employees below that level taking home Rp2.69 million per month. By sector, Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service Activities are currently paying the highest monthly wages/salaries, averaging Rp5.36 million per month for a foreman/supervisor and Rp3.08 million per month for employees below that level (Table 9 - Appendix). The survey also showed how most respondents (68.98%) were not planning to raise wages/salaries in the latter half of 2019, compared to 31.02% who were. By sector, Business Survey 4
  5. businesses operating in the Transportation and Communications sector as well as the Financial , Real Estate and Corporate Services sector planned to raise wages/salaries in the second half of 2019 by 7.98% and 7.45% respectively, as confirmed by 43.15% and 38.18% of respondents (Table 10 - Appendix). I. Profit Margin In line with business expansion, the latest Business Survey confirmed that businesses effectively maintained profit margins in the reporting period, averaging 16.28%, compared with 16.74% in the second semester of 2018 and 16.31% in the first semester of 2018 (Table 11 - Appendix). Nevertheless, the respondents also pointed out that profit margins in the first semester of 2019 have been maintained above the minimum threshold required for business continuity at 11.44%. By sector, Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services businesses posted the widest margins, averaging 18.81%, followed by Mining and Quarrying with an average of 17.40%. J. Sectoral Review Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries Sector Business activity expanded in terms of Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing activities in the first quarter of 2019. Business activity expanded on seasonal factors with the onset of the harvesting period in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector during the first quarter of 2019, as reflected by an increase in the WNB of business activity to 2.43% from -2.06% in the fourth quarter of 2018. By subsector, the main drivers of growth were Food Crops and Fishing activities with respective WNB of 2.28% and 0.19%. Respondents predicted business expansion in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector to continue in the second quarter of 2019. Respondents predicted business expansion in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector to continue in the second quarter of 2019 despite moderating with a WNB of 2.25%, down from 2.43% in the first quarter of 2019. Food Crops and Plantation Crops were anticipated as the key drivers of second-quarter growth, with respective WNB of 0.91% and 0.58%. Congruently, labour utilisation increased as the WNB rose to 0.18% in the first quarter of 2019 from 0.08% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The Food Crops subsector utilised most labour in the reporting period (WNB 0.13%). Respondents also expected labour utilisation to increase, as confirmed by a WNB of 0.78% in the second quarter of 2019. The increase was forecasted to stem from all subsectors, particularly Food Crops (WNB 0.33%) as well as Livestock (WNB 0.15%). Graph 5 Business Survey Business Activity of Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries Sector Graph 6 Business Activity of Mining and Quarrying Sector 5
  6. Mining and Quarrying Sector Respondents confirmed business expansion in the Mining and Quarrying sector during the first quarter of 2019 . Respondents expected business expansion in the Mining and Quarrying sector to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019. Respondents confirmed business expansion in the Mining and Quarrying sector during the first quarter of 2019. Accordingly, the WNB of business activity stood at 0.39%, increasing from -0.97% in the previous period. Furthermore, sectoral expansion translated into greater labour utilisation, as reflected by a bump in the WNB to 0.44% in the first quarter of 2019 from 0.29% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Respondents expected business expansion in the Mining and Quarrying sector to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019, with the WNB increasing from 0.39% to 0.97%. The gains are predicted amidst a surge of labour utilisation, as denoted by a corresponding WNB of 0.30% in the second quarter of 2019. Manufacturing Industry Manufacturing industry performance regained momentum in the first quarter of 2019. Manufacturing industry performance regained momentum in the first quarter of 2019 in line with efforts to meet the seasonal spike in demand during Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, as signalled by an increase in the WNB of business activity from 0.32% in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 1.00% in the first quarter of 2019. The key drivers of manufacturing industry momentum were Food, Beverages and Tobacco (WNB 0.71%), Transportation Equipment, Machinery and Equipment (WNB 0.27%) as well as Paper and Printing (WNB 0.21%). First-quarter developments in the manufacturing industry were confirmed by the Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI-BI), which remained above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion at 52.65% in the reporting period, up from 52.58% in the previous period. By component, Manufacturing Industry performance was induced by rising production volume to meet an influx of new orders. Increasing business activity in the Manufacturing Industry during the first quarter of 2019 prompted a higher level of labour utilisation. The WNB of labour utilisation, therefore, increased to 0.70% from -0.65% in the previous period. The gains were led by the Transportation Equipment, Machinery and Equipment (WNB 0.40%), followed by Fertilizers, Chemicals and Articles of Rubber (WNB 0.25%) as well as the Food, Beverages and Tobacco Industry (WNB 0.21%). Respondents predicted Manufacturing Industry expansion to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019. Respondents predicted Manufacturing Industry expansion to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019, as indicated by a further increase in the WNB to 3.73% from 1.00% in the first quarter of 2019. Businesses in the Food, Beverages and Tobacco Industry (WNB 1.86%) as well as Textiles, Leather Products and Footwear Industry (WNB 0.51%) were expected to stimulate the gains. The PMI-BI also indicated an increase of business activity in the manufacturing industry during the second quarter of 2019 with a reading of 53.21%. By component, the second-quarter growth primarily originated from increasing production volume and inventories to meet growing order volume. Increasing business activity in the manufacturing industry during the second quarter of 2019 is expected to raise labour utilisation, as reflected by an upswing with the WNB recorded at 0.26%. The Food, Beverages and Tobacco Industry (WNB 0.61%) as well as Paper and Printing (WNB 0.13%) were predicted to foster greater labour utilisation in the manufacturing industry. Business Survey 6
  7. Graph 7 Business Activity of Manufacturing Industry Graph 8 Business Activity of Manufacturing Industry vs PMI - BIBS Electricity , Gas and Water Supply Sector The Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector maintained positive growth in the first quarter of 2019. The Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector maintained positive growth in the first quarter of 2019 as the WNB moderated slightly to 0.25% from 0.29% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Availability of production facilities and increasing production capacity to meet stronger domestic demand were the main locomotives of sectoral growth. Congruently, respondents predicted labour utilisation to rise with a WNB of 0.01%, up from -0.06% in the previous period. The respondents expected positive growth momentum in the Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of 2019, the respondents expected positive growth momentum in the Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sector to accelerate as the WNB increased to 0.36% from 0.25%. Consequently, businesses anticipated stable labour utilisation in the reporting period, with the WNB unchanged at 0.01%. Construction Sector Business activity in the construction sector slumped in the first quarter of 2018. Businesses were less active in the Construction sector during the first quarter of 2019, reflected by a WNB dip of 0.08, decrease from 1.15% in the previous period. Respondents attributed the business downturn in the domestic demand for Construction sector to subdued construction project activity at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, labour utilisation was also confirmed to decrease, with the WNB deteriorating from 0.19% to 0.15% in the reporting period. Businesses in the construction sector anticipated performance to improve in the second quarter of 2019 Respondents in the Construction sector anticipated performance to improve in the second quarter of 2019, with the WNB increasing to 1.71%, higher from 0.08% in the previous period, driven by increasing domestic demand for construction services. Furthermore, as business activity accelerates in the upcoming period, construction businesses also expected to utilise more labour in the second quarter, with the WNB of labor in the construction sector increasing from 0.15% to 0.16% in the second quarter of 2019. Business Survey 7
  8. Graph 9 Business Activity of Electricity , Gas and Water Supply Sector Graph 10 Business Activity of Construction Sector Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector Respondents confirmed a positively growth in the trade, hotels and restaurants sector. The Trade, Hotels and Restaurants sector maintained positive growth in the first quarter of 2019 as the WNB moderated slightly to 0.45% from 1.02% in the fourth quarter of 2018 in line with the end of the Christmas and New Year holiday season in the previous period. By subsector, the Wholesale and Retail Trade was the main driver of sectoral growth with a WNB of 0.40%, lower than WNB 0.61% in the previous quarter. Notwithstanding, positive growth of Trade, Hotel and Restaurants sector activities was not expected to significantly affect labour utilisation, with the WNB remain stable at 0.04% as the previous period. The respondents acknowledged that the main absorber of increasing labour utilisation in the reporting period was Wholesale and Retail Trade (WNB 0.07%). Respondents predicted business activity in the trade, hotels and restaurants sector to pick up in the second quarter of 2019. Respondents predicted business activity in the Trade, Hotels and Restaurants sector to pick up in the second quarter of 2019, reflecting a significant upswing in the WNB from 0.45% to 3.10%. Respondents expected all subsectors to post positive growth, led by the Wholesale and Retail subsector (WNB 2.52%). Consistent with business expansion, respondents in the Trade, Hotels and Restaurants sector also expected to utilise more labour in the second quarter of 2019, evidenced by an upsurge in the WNB from 0.04% to 1.09%, with the Wholesale and Retail Trade subsector again dominating the gains (WNB 1.02%). Transportation and Communication Sector Businesses in the Transportation and Communication sector in the first quarter of 2019 remain growth positively. Business in the Transportation and Communication sector reported positive yet slower growth in the first quarter of 2019, as confirmed by a decline in the WNB to 0.63% from 1.17% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Described by subsector, all subsectors to post positive growth, led by the Communication subsector (WNB 0.33%). Nevertheless, survey respondents conceded that the increase on business activities have not significantly impacted labour utilisation, as the WNB declined to -0.06% from 0.25% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Respondents predicted faster business acivity in the Transportation and Communication sector in the second quarter of 2019. Respondents predicted faster business acivity in the Transportation and Communication sector in the second quarter of 2019, with the WNB edging up to 2.32% from 0,63% in the first quarter of 2019. Transportation subsectors posted higher gains in the reporting period, as confirmed by an increase in the WNB to 1.93% from 0.30% in the first quarter of 2019. Congruently, labour utilisation was also predicted to grow in the second quarter of 2019 with the corresponding WNB increasing to 0.20% from -0.06% in the previous period. By subsector, Transportation subsector is expected to lead labour utilisasion in the second quarter of 2019 with a WNB of 0.26%. Business Survey 8
  9. Graph 11 Business Activity of Trade , Hotels and Restaurants Sector Graph 12 Business Activity of Transportation & Communication Sector Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services Sector The Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service sector maintained positive growth in the first quarter of 2019. The Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service sector maintained positive growth in the first quarter of 2019 despite moderating compared with conditions in the previous period. Such dynamics were represented in the WNB of 1.93%, down from 3.06% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The Banking subsector was the main driver of sectoral growth with a WNB of 1.61%, despite moderating compared with a WNB of 1.84% in the previous period. In line with developing business activity, labour utilisation in the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service sector growth positively with a WNB of 0.42%, albeit down from 0.76% in the previous period. By subsector, respondents predicted the improvements to originate from the Real Estate subsector (WNB 0.19%) as well as the Non Bank Financial Institution subsector (WNB 0.12%). Respondents expected the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service sector expansion to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019. The Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Service sector actvities predicted to accelerate in the second quarter of 2019, as indicated by a gain in the WNB from 1.93% in the first quarter of 2019 to 3.14%. The gain comes amidst strong performances by the Banking subsector (WNB 2.22%). Similarly, respondents expected labour utilisation to increase, with the WNB of 1.08%, increasing from 0.42% in the previous quarter, mostly in the Banking subsector (WNB 0.65%). Services Sector Services sector growth moderated. Services sector growth moderated in the first quarter of 2019, reflected by a decline in the WNB from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 1.49%. In line with the business development, however, respondents confirmed a lower growth of labour utilisation in the services sector, with a WNB of 0.49%, down from 1.03% in the previous period. Respondents were upbeat that services sector growth would accelerate in the second quarter of 2019. Respondents were upbeat that services sector growth would accelerate in the second quarter of 2019, reflecting a bump in the WNB from 1.49% to 3.84%. In addition, respondents expected the services sector to utilise more labour in the upcoming period in line with business expansion, indicated by a WNB of 0.95%, up from 0.49% in the previous period. Business Survey 9
  10. Graph 13 Business Survey Business Activity of Financial , Real Estate and Corporate Services Sector Graph 14 Business Activity of Services Sector 10
  11. Table 1 Business Activity (Weighted Net Balance - WNB) 2015 SECTORS Table 2 I II 2016 III IV I II 2017 III IV I II 2018 III IV I II 2019 III IV I II* 2.43 2.25 2.28 0.91 0.11 0.58 -0.10 0.39 -0.05 0.05 0.19 0.33 0.39 0.97 1.00 3.73 0.71 1.86 0.00 0.51 -0.09 0.25 0.21 0.29 0.03 0.33 -0.04 0.11 -0.04 0.07 0.27 0.28 -0.05 0.02 0.25 0.36 0.08 1.71 0.45 3.10 0.40 2.52 -0.11 0.15 0.16 0.43 0.63 2.32 0.30 1.93 0.33 0.40 1.93 3.14 1.61 2.22 0.23 0.25 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.26 0.00 0.40 1.49 3.84 Production Capacity Utilisation (Percentage) S E C T O R S 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 71.74 79.15 78.74 76.76 78.21 77.12 77.63 75.65 74.84 77.01 74.48 71.42 77.04 77.10 75.06 74.87 77.15 Farm Food Crops 80.77 83.60 82.24 77.74 82.39 82.94 79.48 79.48 76.81 81.66 77.00 71.25 81.04 78.20 74.51 74.29 77.57 Non-food Crops 73.26 78.60 77.73 75.06 75.12 74.27 73.09 73.09 78.51 77.41 74.10 69.55 80.13 80.50 76.32 78.41 78.37 Livestock & Products 79.27 86.74 82.76 80.34 86.81 82.29 80.11 76.50 72.41 73.97 76.75 77.28 77.28 81.47 81.08 77.05 79.66 Forestry 63.64 78.89 76.55 76.18 78.57 75.26 78.83 78.83 78.31 76.00 71.21 75.58 75.58 73.57 71.67 71.61 75.53 Fishery Mining and quarrying 61.75 69.68 67.93 77.41 74.44 72.68 74.50 72.82 68.16 69.56 70.85 78.03 76.63 77.08 70.37 73.06 71.08 74.52 76.02 75.04 73.34 73.73 63.41 74.25 71.15 73.71 71.73 75.04 71.71 70.25 73.00 69.96 74.61 71.41 Manufacturing Industry Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery 74.33 75.89 68.46 70.47 71.23 70.33 73.15 74.59 74.02 75.65 74.53 73.37 73.39 75.67 73.91 74.63 75.93 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 75.54 77.35 73.80 76.64 75.92 77.43 75.30 76.58 75.15 76.84 74.13 73.64 73.48 76.64 73.14 76.97 71.64 Textile, Leather products and Footwear 77.38 80.68 76.61 78.15 78.51 79.84 75.50 79.81 78.30 78.68 78.66 76.65 77.27 81.38 83.11 78.72 83.23 Wood products & Other wood products 72.57 75.77 69.77 75.94 70.47 74.24 73.34 76.61 74.05 77.49 75.36 76.76 76.77 76.32 72.43 73.14 73.13 Paper and Printing 74.96 76.75 79.50 78.45 72.58 80.06 72.97 72.97 69.37 75.74 74.97 78.79 79.33 75.00 74.91 76.70 77.59 Fertilizers, Chemicals and Rubber products 74.74 78.63 78.59 76.35 73.32 72.83 77.81 77.81 75.84 74.30 75.63 75.59 75.72 78.58 75.78 75.47 74.28 Cement and Non metalic mineral products 76.16 80.41 85.39 87.29 75.21 77.50 77.11 69.90 73.26 73.17 73.50 70.06 70.06 71.25 75.51 75.02 75.82 Iron and Basic steel 66.88 72.60 64.29 69.29 64.59 65.53 62.55 69.43 68.87 73.79 75.16 69.51 69.92 63.13 63.77 60.55 64.85 Transport equipment, Machinery & Apparatus 73.72 64.26 71.26 68.42 65.52 68.78 68.42 71.55 76.04 74.00 69.67 65.90 65.07 82.64 67.00 73.17 71.07 Other manufacturing products 76.98 76.51 76.55 78.84 75.41 81.56 79.12 80.88 76.18 83.98 77.12 82.56 75.31 76.98 76.62 81.81 75.34 83.70 76.86 80.53 73.69 81.21 72.67 81.14 72.85 80.96 76.09 85.77 79.55 82.12 81.97 81.28 77.69 79.91 73.06 77.82 75.36 75.23 75.75 77.01 76.21 76.28 76.92 77.06 75.99 75.05 76.27 78.40 75.33 75.18 76.10 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply TOTAL Business Survey 11
  12. Table 3 Indicator of Financial Condition and Access to Financing (Net Balance - NB) INDICAT O RS 2015 I II III IV I 2016 II III 2017 IV I 2018 II III IV I II 2019 III IV I Financial condition over past three months: - Liquidity Better 26.08 38.22 26.64 34.60 39.34 40.89 38.94 40.89 41.19 41.75 41.70 41.71 39.29 42.38 32.48 34.83 32.51 Same 63.37 56.46 64.86 60.49 56.07 55.87 57.25 55.56 53.37 54.19 54.46 54.20 56.09 53.74 62.85 60.93 61.66 Worse 10.56 5.32 8.51 4.91 4.59 3.24 3.80 3.55 5.44 4.06 3.84 4.09 4.62 3.88 4.67 4.24 5.83 15.52 32.90 18.13 29.70 34.75 37.66 35.14 37.35 35.75 37.69 37.86 37.62 34.67 38.51 27.80 30.59 26.68 Better 24.51 36.34 24.99 34.11 36.74 41.96 40.19 40.65 42.86 44.11 44.32 45.25 41.35 41.64 31.95 34.03 31.29 Same 65.23 58.26 66.75 60.77 58.40 55.04 56.18 56.05 52.41 53.03 52.77 51.66 54.09 53.73 62.92 60.47 61.16 Worse 10.26 5.40 8.26 5.12 4.86 3.00 3.64 3.30 4.73 2.86 2.91 3.09 4.56 4.63 5.14 5.50 7.56 14.25 30.95 16.73 28.99 31.88 38.96 36.55 37.35 38.13 41.25 41.41 42.16 36.79 37.01 26.81 28.53 23.73 Easy 19.65 22.10 17.08 19.53 24.21 22.51 21.56 21.61 23.58 19.53 19.83 17.56 20.58 11.21 9.88 9.46 10.97 Normal 62.95 62.00 63.18 62.94 58.35 63.18 65.34 63.86 63.13 68.35 69.06 69.18 67.28 83.91 86.13 87.34 84.10 Tight 17.40 15.90 19.73 17.53 17.44 14.31 13.10 14.53 13.28 12.12 11.11 13.26 12.14 4.87 3.99 3.20 4.92 2.26 6.20 -2.65 2.00 6.77 8.20 8.45 7.07 10.30 7.41 8.72 4.30 8.45 6.34 5.89 6.26 6.05 I II III IV Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) - Rentability Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) Access to credit over past three months: Net Balance (% Easy - % Tight) Table 4 Labour Utilisation (Weighted Net Balance – WNB) SECTORS 2016 2017 I II 2018 III IV I II III IV I 2019 II* 0.90 0.48 -0.31 -0.67 0.06 0.09 -0.35 -0.16 0.81 0.87 0.80 0.08 0.18 0.78 Farm Food Crops -0.05 0.45 0.00 -0.08 0.56 0.19 0.04 -0.09 0.50 0.45 0.45 0.03 0.13 0.33 Non-food Crops -0.12 -0.14 -0.13 -0.34 -0.24 -0.09 0.00 0.17 0.14 0.10 0.21 -0.03 0.00 0.10 Livestock & Products 0.19 -0.04 -0.07 -0.07 0.00 0.08 -0.05 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.15 Forestry 0.53 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.31 -0.13 -0.29 -0.20 0.17 0.05 0.02 -0.10 -0.02 0.02 Fishery 0.35 0.21 -0.04 -0.04 0.06 0.04 -0.04 -0.13 -0.07 0.23 0.00 0.09 -0.03 0.19 0.25 -0.86 -1.12 -1.76 0.15 -0.13 0.91 -0.89 -0.02 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.44 0.30 -1.95 -0.02 -1.35 -0.94 -0.49 0.90 -0.87 -1.19 -1.73 -0.02 0.05 -0.65 0.70 0.26 Food, beverages and tobacco -0.07 0.76 -0.41 0.00 -0.13 0.19 -0.59 -0.33 -0.84 0.42 -0.06 0.03 0.21 0.61 Textile, leather products ang footwear -0.52 -0.03 -0.29 -0.29 -0.32 0.04 -0.22 -0.18 0.04 0.30 0.00 -0.08 -0.11 -0.08 Wood products & other wood products -0.15 -0.05 -0.23 -0.23 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.07 -0.04 -0.05 0.04 -0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.09 -0.23 -0.23 -0.16 0.14 0.06 -0.15 -0.14 -0.13 0.13 -0.04 0.04 0.13 Fertilizers, chemicals and rubber products -0.06 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.09 0.30 0.22 -0.09 -0.06 -0.11 0.25 0.00 Cement and non metalic mineral products 0.04 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.05 -0.02 0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.09 Iron and basic steel -0.07 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.11 -0.09 0.02 0.08 -0.03 -0.04 -0.08 -0.04 Transport equipment, machinery & apparatus -1.19 -0.73 -0.19 -0.19 0.18 0.53 -0.19 -0.71 -0.96 -0.55 0.00 -0.34 0.40 -0.49 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 0.13 0.02 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.03 -0.02 -0.06 0.01 0.01 0.23 0.16 0.35 0.22 -0.42 0.00 0.09 0.03 -0.36 0.33 0.11 0.19 0.15 0.16 Trade, Hotel and Restaurant -0.55 0.86 -0.65 0.08 -0.08 0.87 -0.76 0.33 -0.72 1.54 0.02 0.04 0.04 1.09 Wholesale and retail trade -0.48 0.81 -0.29 0.21 -0.08 0.95 -0.69 0.25 -0.43 1.30 0.19 0.78 0.07 1.02 Hotel -0.07 -0.05 -0.07 -0.02 -0.05 -0.08 -0.06 -0.01 -0.05 0.04 -0.01 0.01 -0.06 -0.03 0.00 0.10 -0.29 -0.11 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.08 -0.24 0.20 -0.16 -0.04 0.04 0.10 0.33 0.04 0.18 0.22 0.03 0.16 -0.05 -0.12 -0.17 0.17 0.30 0.25 -0.06 0.20 Transport 0.23 -0.05 0.11 0.27 0.09 0.12 -0.01 -0.06 0.02 0.17 0.40 0.22 0.12 0.26 Communication 0.10 0.08 0.07 -0.05 -0.06 0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.20 0.00 -0.10 0.03 -0.17 -0.05 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Industry Paper and printing Other manufacturing products Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Restaurant Transport & Communication 0.97 0.99 0.38 0.68 1.18 0.87 0.72 0.47 0.53 0.59 0.71 0.76 0.42 1.08 Bank 1.08 0.82 0.13 0.38 1.32 0.67 0.82 0.32 0.39 0.54 0.18 0.51 0.04 0.65 Non bank financial institutions 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.07 0.15 0.07 0.12 0.15 Services allied to financial 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 Real Estate -0.08 0.07 0.00 0.16 -0.16 0.08 -0.17 0.00 -0.07 -0.07 0.31 0.15 0.19 0.10 Business services -0.02 0.12 0.26 0.10 -0.06 0.08 0.00 0.12 0.10 0.04 0.07 0.02 0.06 0.17 1.77 0.54 0.64 0.18 0.76 1.38 0.33 0.55 0.73 0.93 1.19 1.03 0.49 0.95 1.94 2.32 -1.85 1.74 1.25 4.23 0.13 -0.89 -0.88 4.73 3.44 2.37 4.84 Financial, real estate and business services Services TOTAL Business Survey 1.94 12
  13. Table 5 Selling Price (Weighted Net Balance – WNB) 2016 SECTORS I III IV 2.19 1.55 0.02 0.14 0.09 0.39 0.54 4.19 1.13 0.62 0.18 0.66 0.39 0.07 -0.05 1.19 0.02 0.07 1.37 4.20 3.51 0.02 0.67 0.30 0.13 0.17 0.08 -0.43 0.03 0.00 0.41 0.07 1.53 2.95 1.57 0.52 0.33 -0.07 0.59 1.59 3.35 1.67 0.20 0.28 0.42 0.58 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.01 0.17 0.82 3.42 2.98 0.01 0.42 0.59 0.45 0.14 -1.27 -1.27 -0.03 0.00 0.07 -0.04 1.19 2.63 1.73 0.07 0.35 0.14 0.34 1.26 1.66 0.74 0.29 0.16 0.14 0.41 0.08 0.02 -0.19 0.01 0.12 1.67 3.17 2.80 0.04 0.33 0.50 0.40 0.10 -0.48 -0.95 -0.02 0.01 0.29 0.19 1.37 2.61 1.48 0.25 0.24 0.27 0.37 2.51 1.80 0.62 0.07 0.24 0.00 0.73 -0.02 -0.07 0.22 0.01 0.26 0.71 2.71 2.35 0.04 0.32 0.44 0.36 0.08 -0.13 -0.91 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.22 0.43 1.26 -0.05 0.51 -0.26 0.00 1.06 -1.63 3.17 1.63 0.46 0.09 0.27 0.98 0.02 0.15 0.18 0.04 0.29 0.95 4.71 4.37 0.00 0.33 0.49 0.26 0.23 -0.04 -0.68 -0.03 0.00 0.49 0.17 0.82 14.48 12.81 11.90 11.35 10.03 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery Farm Food Crops Non-food Crops Livestock & Products Forestry Fishery Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Industry Food, beverages and tobacco Textile, leather products ang footwear Wood products & other wood products Paper and printing Fertilizers, chemicals and rubber products Cement and non metalic mineral products Iron and basic steel Transport equipment, machinery & apparatus Other manufacturing products Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel and Restaurant Wholesale and retail trade Hotel Restaurant Transport & Communication Transport Communication Financial, real estate and business services Bank Non bank financial institutions Services allied to financial Real Estate Business services Services TOTAL Table 6 2017 II I II 3.23 1.86 0.31 0.68 0.00 0.39 3.34 2.05 0.70 0.07 0.22 0.10 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.35 0.02 0.22 0.79 3.26 2.94 0.03 0.28 0.56 0.37 0.18 -0.53 -0.85 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.10 0.53 I 4.28 2.56 0.41 0.46 0.33 0.52 1.09 4.16 1.48 0.54 0.15 0.65 0.49 0.08 0.28 0.48 0.02 0.15 1.04 4.19 3.80 0.01 0.38 0.30 0.23 0.07 0.13 -0.70 0.05 0.01 0.50 0.27 0.56 2018 II 3.53 0.50 0.54 1.11 0.43 0.95 0.25 5.36 1.64 0.51 0.30 0.31 0.76 0.14 0.03 1.65 0.02 0.19 1.72 5.14 4.55 0.11 0.48 1.31 1.15 0.16 0.90 0.22 0.04 -0.01 0.27 0.39 1.22 13.45 15.91 19.61 III IV 0.66 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.20 0.09 0.39 1.29 1.29 0.44 0.24 0.56 -0.09 0.11 0.10 0.18 0.02 0.30 1.04 2.97 2.70 -0.01 0.27 0.78 0.63 0.16 0.17 -0.30 -0.02 0.00 0.23 0.26 0.78 2.25 1.04 0.52 0.24 -0.07 0.52 2.13 2.09 0.70 0.37 0.14 0.14 0.34 0.09 0.11 0.18 0.02 0.22 0.78 2.83 2.57 0.07 0.20 0.34 0.28 0.06 0.04 -0.46 -0.02 0.00 0.32 0.21 1.34 9.92 12.03 III 2.81 1.43 0.04 0.59 0.10 0.65 0.22 4.16 0.70 0.66 0.29 0.48 0.58 0.05 0.10 1.28 0.03 0.15 1.37 4.79 4.43 0.11 0.25 1.09 0.82 0.27 1.63 0.79 0.08 0.00 0.52 0.24 2.21 IV* 4.14 2.40 -0.19 0.77 0.34 0.82 0.18 3.45 0.91 0.61 0.18 0.39 0.32 0.12 0.04 0.85 0.03 0.16 1.44 4.02 3.72 0.08 0.22 0.92 0.69 0.23 2.11 1.07 0.09 0.01 0.57 0.38 0.99 18.43 17.41 2019 I 1.84 0.81 0.51 0.02 0.18 0.31 0.00 3.84 1.41 0.54 0.14 0.53 0.62 0.06 0.13 0.62 0.02 0.15 1.42 4.40 3.76 0.06 0.58 0.97 0.90 0.07 1.74 0.65 0.12 0.00 0.61 0.36 0.97 15.34 II* 2.38 0.69 0.48 0.48 0.19 0.54 0.74 4.72 1.69 0.65 0.26 0.21 0.51 0.13 0.06 1.20 0.01 0.14 1.84 3.84 3.41 0.04 0.39 0.90 0.74 0.15 1.72 0.83 0.14 0.01 0.54 0.21 1.38 17.66 Annual Inflation Expectations (% of respondents) EXPECTATION FOR 2017 SECTORS EXPECTATION FOR 2018 Q1-2017 Survey Q2-2017 Survey Q3-2017 Survey Q4-2017 Survey Q1-2018 Survey Q2-2018 Survey Q3-2018 Survey Q4-2018 Survey Q1-2019 Survey Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 3.58 3.63 3.58 3.49 3.50 4.04 3.52 3.97 Mining and Quarrying 3.53 3.15 3.21 3.39 3.49 3.68 3.53 3.48 Manufacturing Industry 3.49 3.56 3.59 3.45 3.47 4.25 3.61 4.06 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 3.50 3.54 2.29 3.60 3.32 3.76 3.60 3.58 Construction 3.60 3.46 3.67 3.30 3.33 3.81 3.52 4.14 Trade, hotels and restaurants 3.54 3.56 3.62 3.53 3.42 3.90 3.55 4.01 Transport and Communication 3.51 3.50 1.67 3.39 3.43 3.65 3.51 4.62 Financial, real estate and corporate services 3.69 3.63 3.47 3.60 3.51 3.77 3.56 3.84 Services 3.39 3.54 3.55 3.51 4.03 3.24 3.30 3.45 3.50 3.44 4.04 3.88 3.50 3.54 3.94 3.96 3.54 3.57 3.48 3.38 3.48 3.47 3.47 3.60 3.44 4.0 ± 1 Table 7 3,5 ± 1 3,5 ± 1 Realisation of Investment (Weighted Net Balance – WNB) 2016 2017 2018 2019 SECTORS I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV* I II* Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 0.99 1.58 0.51 1.08 0.67 1.15 0.82 0.85 1.47 1.25 0.87 0.64 1.13 1.50 Mining and Quarrying -0.48 1.79 -0.02 0.06 -0.89 1.29 1.94 1.75 0.43 0.29 0.22 0.51 0.57 2.60 Manufacturing Industry -0.64 1.00 0.95 2.44 -0.21 1.36 1.31 2.44 2.70 2.16 1.57 0.81 1.79 2.54 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.12 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.29 0.29 0.24 0.25 0.17 0.25 0.32 0.30 0.16 0.27 Construction 0.03 0.46 0.83 0.54 0.58 0.49 0.32 0.32 0.22 0.69 0.50 0.53 0.51 0.98 Trade, hotels and restaurants 1.08 1.83 1.42 1.76 1.82 1.88 1.30 1.43 1.11 1.80 1.69 1.26 1.34 1.81 Transport and Communication 0.69 0.78 0.77 0.92 1.15 0.71 0.74 0.60 0.45 0.84 1.00 1.06 0.74 0.58 Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.24 1.83 1.90 2.24 1.82 2.28 2.02 2.32 1.81 2.21 1.98 1.84 2.07 2.05 Services 2.07 1.34 1.34 1.64 1.99 1.13 1.97 0.73 1.18 2.25 2.49 2.48 1.32 1.08 6.10 10.82 7.92 10.88 7.21 10.58 10.66 10.68 9.55 11.73 10.64 9.42 9.62 13.41 TOTA L Business Survey 13
  14. Table 8 Wages / Salaries (% Net Balance – NB) Table 9 Average Wages / Salaries (IDR per Month) Table 10 Business Plan on Wages/Salaries in Semester II-2019 (%) Yes Business Survey No 14
  15. Table 11 Profit Margin (%) Semester I-2017 SECTOR Semester II-2017 Semester I-2018 Semester I-2018 Semester I-2019 Perkiraan Margin Usaha Margin Minimum yg Tidak Mengganggu Kegiatan Usaha Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 20.48% 14.24% 20.76% 13.29% 19.08% 11.95% 18.48% 12.16% 17.09% 13.22% Mining and Quarrying 17.26% 8.99% 19.10% 11.86% 15.62% 9.62% 16.50% 14.29% 18.54% 15.08% Manufacturing Industry 19.34% 13.13% 15.07% 11.54% 15.36% 10.62% 14.79% 9.99% 13.03% 10.35% Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 15.62% 11.56% 15.10% 12.41% 14.96% 11.29% 14.98% 9.40% 15.16% 11.54% Construction 15.90% 9.77% 19.27% 12.81% 16.21% 11.13% 18.28% 12.34% 15.45% 11.59% Trade, hotels and restaurants 19.86% 12.93% 20.45% 14.01% 17.07% 12.10% 17.38% 11.54% 16.60% 12.35% Transport and Communication 23.51% 14.03% 20.92% 13.16% 17.43% 11.06% 17.11% 11.60% 14.40% 9.84% Financial, real estate and corporate services 16.72% 10.02% 16.98% 11.42% 15.17% 9.80% 18.66% 12.00% 18.81% 12.29% Services TOTAL Business Survey 17.83% 10.11% 20.36% 11.17% 15.85% 10.62% 14.50% 9.61% 17.40% 9.60% 18.50% 11.64% 19.28% 12.73% 16.31% 10.91% 16.74% 11.44% 16.28% 11.76% 15
  16. METHODOLOGI Survei The Business Survey has been conducted quarterly since the first quarter of 1993 . In Quarter III-2018, the Survey was extended to 4,444 enterprises spread throughout all regions of the Indonesian archipelago, selected using purposive sampling. Statistically, the respondents have a sampling error of 2% at a 5% level of significance. Data is collated through respondent questionnaires either by hardcopy or by online on BI website. The data is calculated using the net balance method, namely by calculating the difference between the percentage of respondents whose answers increased, those whose answers decreased and those whose answers remained the same. In the case of calculating the net balance of business activity, selling price and labour utilization are calculated using the net weighted balance method. The weight reflected the contribution of each sector to GDP. Since Quarter I-2014, the Survey has been conducted in the last month of the current quarter (one month earlier than usual). In addition, the questionnaire improvement and integrated web-based application both were developed. Business Survey 16