Indonesia: Banking Survey Quarter IV 2021

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1. ‘ BANKING SURVEY Quarter IV 2021 New Loans Lending Policy Credit Growth Banking Industry Indicated Faster Growth of New Loans in Q4/2021 The latest Banking Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia revealed how quarterly growth of new loan disbursements accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2021, as reflected by a significant increase in the weighted net balance (WNB) to 87% from 20.9% in the previous period. Broad growth of new loans was indicated by a positive WNB across all loan types. Notwithstanding, survey respondents predicted moderation in the first quarter of 2022, with the corresponding WNB retreating to 52.0%. Respondents predicted slightly tighter lending standards in the first quarter of 2022, as confirmed by a bump in the Lending Standards Index to 3.4% from 2.6% in the third quarter of 2021, with an expectation of higher lending rates at some banks. The latest survey also showed how respondents have remained optimistic concerning credit growth moving forward, predicting 8.7% in 2022 compared with 5.2% credit growth in 2021. Optimism was stoked, amongst others, by economic and monetary conditions as well as relatively manageable credit risk. A. Conditions in Quarter IV 2021 Faster new loan growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021. The latest Banking Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia indicated faster growth (qtq) of new loans in the fourth quarter of 2021, as confirmed by significant increase in the weighted net balance (WNB) of demand for new loans to 87.0% from 20.9% in the previous period (Graph 1). By loan type, survey respondents reported broad gains across all segments, namely working capital loans (WNB 80.0%), investment loans (WNB 68.1%) and consumer loans (WNB 84.1%) (Graph 2). Graph 1 New Loans Growth Graph 2 Loan Growth by Type of Usage By sector, the Banking Survey revealed the strongest growth of new loans was allocated to the Mining and Quarrying sector (WNB 69.7%), followed by Electricity, Gas and Water Supply (WNB 56.1%) as well as Health Services and Social Work Activities (49.0%) (Graph 4). Banking Survey 1
2. Graph 3 Consumer Loan Growth by Type Graph 4 The Highest Growth of Three Economic Sectors B . Predictions for Quarter I 2022 Predictions for Loans A slower pace of new loan growth was predicted in the first quarter of 2022. The banking industry predicted a slower quarterly pace of new loan growth (qtq) in the first quarter of 2022, as reflected by moderation in the WNB to 52.0% from 87.0% in the previous period (Graph 1). According to the respondents, working capital loans would remain a priority in terms of new loan disbursements in the first three months of 2022, followed by investment loans and consumer loans. Regarding consumer loans, housing loans will remain the primary focus, followed by multipurpose loans and automotive loans. By sector, banks will target Wholesale and Retail Trade, the Manufacturing Industry and Financial Intermediaries for new loan disbursements in the first quarter of 2022 (Table 3). Bank Lending Policy Slightly tighter lending policy anticipated in the first quarter of 2022. Consistent with the prediction of moderation, the banking industry is expected to tighten lending policy slightly in the first quarter of 2022, as indicated by an increase in the Lending Standards Index to 3.4% from 2.6% in the previous period (Graph 5). Tighter lending policy will affect (nonhousing) consumer loans and MSME loans (Graph 6), with the banks focusing on lending rates (Graph 8). Graph 5 Banking Survey Lending Standard Index Graph 6 Lending Standard Index by Type of Loan 2
3. Graph 7 % Respondents with Lending Policy Change Graph 8 Bank Lending Policy Change Predictions for Deposits Deposit growth predicted to moderate in the first quarter of 2022. The banking industry predicted weaker deposit growth in the first quarter of 2022, with the corresponding WNB retreating to 17.4% from 78.5% in the previous period (Graph 9). Survey respondents expected broad moderation across all instrument types, including savings deposits (87.0%), demand deposits (18.8%) and term deposits (2.9%) (Graph 10). Graph 9 Prediction for Deposits Growth Graph 10 Prediction for Deposits Growth by Category C. Predictions for 2022 Predictions for Loans Credit growth predicted at 8.7% (yoy) in 2022. The banking industry predicted credit growth at 8.7% (yoy) in 2022, up from 5.2% (yoy) in 2021 (Graph 11), underpinned by optimism in terms of monetary and economic conditions, coupled with relatively manageable credit risk. Predictions for Deposits The banking industry predicted stronger deposit growth in 2022, as reflected by an increase in the WNB to 93.8% from 78.5% in the previous period (Graph 12), based on loose liquidity conditions in the banking system together with an expansion of banking facilities and services. Banking Survey 3
4. Graph 11 Banking Survey Predictions for Loans Growth Graph 12 Predictions for Deposits Growth 4
5. Table 1 Classification of Demand for New Loans (WNB, %) Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Loans in Detail 2018 I IV I 2020 II III IV I II 2021 III IV I II III IV 71,9 90,2 69,8 77,0 68,2 61,0 65,8 65,0 16,7 (19,5) 68,1 25,6 19,7 45,0 18,1 80,0 Investment Loans 73,5 73,8 68,9 83,1 74,7 77,3 63,2 70,3 15,1 (75,1) 28,6 (10,6) 5,4 13,3 34,4 68,1 Consumer Loans 16,6 36,6 26,8 28,0 30,4 54,3 45,9 75,8 (7,6) (68,6) 42,7 0,9 56,1 31,3 49,8 84,1 Housing/Property 31,1 42,9 66,7 54,1 30,2 29,3 24,3 52,1 3,3 (38,7) 64,7 48,9 57,1 58,1 45,6 58,7 Motor Vehicles 21,9 40,3 20,9 6,4 6,0 24,4 4,2 (59,3) 15,8 (25,2) (6,8) (2,5) (35,6) 5,1 7,7 47,2 45,4 73,6 21,3 39,3 52,7 34,2 18,3 (70,0) (40,9) (2,3) 41,5 34,8 (36,1) 82,7 Multi Purpose Loans 22,4 36,7 37,0 32,5 35,4 31,7 29,1 49,8 (5,3) (58,9) (36,6) (21,0) 27,4 36,9 44,5 39,5 Non-collateral loans 0,8 (4,1) 3,3 40,6 12,7 16,9 32,2 33,1 (4,7) (48,0) 28,8 (5,1) 16,8 13,4 41,3 62,9 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 52,4 73,4 52,3 76,4 40,2 43,1 (4,5) 62,1 24,8 (60,8) 49,5 29,3 19,4 55,4 55,7 27,0 Fishing 46,6 38,7 47,5 41,0 (8,2) 51,2 3,6 7,3 33,5 (61,9) 17,7 11,4 24,4 29,6 15,1 19,9 (23,5) 29,0 35,7 26,6 (0,7) 11,5 18,8 34,4 (26,6) (27,5) (7,9) 2,1 (43,6) (26,5) (15,6) 69,7 Manufacturing 45,8 62,6 59,5 58,2 26,0 55,2 49,3 21,9 14,6 (30,9) 8,3 30,8 48,9 48,2 Electricity, Gas and Water 22,5 60,4 80,7 50,6 35,1 10,7 30,4 22,1 10,1 (16,8) 28,0 9,3 (25,8) (15,3) 5,8 56,1 Construction 54,6 52,7 68,6 66,0 26,9 67,9 35,9 52,2 (1,5) (31,4) 16,8 5,8 Wholesale and Retail Trade 44,1 67,9 64,0 68,5 12,3 39,5 17,2 28,7 (6,9) (66,1) 2,1 52,6 50,7 59,6 3,8 38,3 23,1 25,9 0,1 (58,1) (4,2) 0,4 47,2 38,9 58,8 1,4 46,8 27,0 33,5 9,5 (19,2) 3,2 29,3 27,0 20,3 50,9 (2,7) 19,8 8,2 27,3 13,6 (29,0) 40,5 36,0 33,1 17,4 47,2 43,4 58,6 17,2 (22,2) (39,2) (19,8) (10,5) (17,8) 3,1 10,6 12,7 19,1 (3,6) (38,8) (36,9) 24,0 (19,4) 56,8 (2,1) (63,0) (23,7) Credit Card Accomodation, Food and Beverage 47,0 Services Activities Transportation, Storage and 36,1 Communication Financial Intermediaries (10,3) Real Estate, Leasing and Company Services Activities Government Administrative, Defence and Compulsory Social Security Educational Services Health Services and Social Work Activities Public Services, Social Cultural, Entertainment and Personal Act. Personal Services Serving Households International Agencies and Other Extra International Organization Activities that Undefined Group of Debtors III Working Capital Loans Mining and Quarrying Economic Sectors 2019 II Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Communal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Communal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Export Loans Usage Import Loans Orientation Other Loans TOTAL Banking Survey 31,0 18,9 (11,7) 24,2 42,7 27,4 16,2 55,8 29,6 16,1 (13,5) 45,1 20,6 32,1 4,5 29,4 2,8 9,0 20,3 21,0 18,6 42,1 (8,9) (6,3) (56,8) (8,5) (6,7) (0,1) 6,0 12,2 (36,3) 1,1 2,4 46,1 28,1 (53,3) (19,6) (20,8) 15,9 (16,7) 23,1 25,7 27,8 (9,0) 11,6 41,4 36,5 46,4 19,1 (16,2) 35,1 54,8 (5,1) (26,9) 49,6 20,8 23,8 5,7 20,5 (0,7) 7,9 29,7 16,1 (12,8) (12,5) 19,5 0,5 4,0 22,7 (5,8) 6,8 0,2 (8,2) (3,2) (3,6) 18,0 1,9 (0,9) (0,7) (20,9) (19,6) (0,9) 1,3 48,8 42,8 44,6 53,6 63,0 69,7 59,5 46,6 81,2 29,7 8,5 7,0 (6,7) (28,6) 28,1 37,5 (0,2) 55,3 8,1 (2,1) 49,0 5,6 13,9 (4,2) 4,6 (1,9) 15,6 37,7 (17,2) (0,4) 2,5 0,2 22,7 (15,4) 19,9 (4,2) 8,3 (25,9) (45,7) 0,5 (5,4) (17,0) 32,0 (28,3) (8,0) (2,5) (4,9) 9,3 (7,0) (66,5) (6,2) (8,9) (1,2) 33,9 15,6 8,5 65,0 65,7 42,8 56,8 22,8 (47,9) 54,9 36,1 28,0 43,6 37,4 69,0 74,9 31,5 46,5 23,6 67,4 3,5 (83,0) 66,0 25,8 29,0 11,6 14,7 75,0 75,5 79,1 45,3 72,9 36,4 61,3 27,0 (45,8) (12,8) 10,9 23,6 23,7 34,5 61,5 28,0 56,8 45,2 35,0 47,6 58,8 48,3 47,6 (39,9) 56,6 2,8 (3,9) 29,1 7,5 44,8 32,8 14,0 11,4 26,9 53,1 44,2 (0,4) 26,8 (61,0) (2,9) (20,4) (20,9) 17,9 3,5 34,6 65,3 79,3 65,6 76,2 40,1 70,4 55,8 57,9 24,1 (68,2) (17,4) 75,9 90,3 21,2 71,7 57,8 78,3 68,3 70,6 23,7 (33,9) 32,9 50,6 7,1 (1,1) 62,6 26,6 78,1 25,4 30,4 53,9 20,9 87,0 5
6. Table 2 Percentage of Respondents with Below Target New Loans Realization (Deviation >5%) Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Loans in Detail III IV I II III IV I 2021 II III IV I II* 22,5 20,0 22,5 25,0 32,5 32,5 42,5 40,0 42,5 34,2 44,4 47,2 42,9 25,0 25,0 35,0 22,5 27,5 25,0 32,5 35,0 30,0 31,6 44,4 47,2 37,1 Consumer Loans 35,0 27,5 22,5 22,5 22,5 20,0 35,0 17,5 15,0 18,4 25,0 27,8 25,7 Housing/Property 20,0 20,0 25,0 22,5 20,0 27,5 30,0 30,0 30,0 23,7 25,0 19,4 31,4 Motor Vehicles 22,5 17,5 17,5 15,0 20,0 20,0 20,0 25,0 20,0 13,2 19,4 19,4 14,3 Credit Card 5,0 12,5 12,5 10,0 15,0 17,5 12,5 12,5 10,0 18,4 5,6 11,1 17,1 Multi Purpose Loans 27,5 22,5 20,0 10,0 10,0 12,5 15,0 10,0 7,5 13,2 25,0 25,0 20,0 Non-collateral loans 15,0 12,5 10,0 12,5 5,0 10,0 15,0 5,0 2,5 5,3 8,3 16,7 8,6 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 25,0 20,0 30,0 27,5 27,5 32,5 27,5 32,5 25,0 21,1 38,9 25,0 25,7 Fishing 17,5 17,5 15,0 17,5 17,5 22,5 22,5 22,5 15,0 21,1 22,2 22,2 14,3 Mining and Quarrying 27,5 22,5 22,5 27,5 20,0 20,0 25,0 22,5 25,0 28,9 27,8 38,9 37,1 Manufacturing 25,0 32,5 32,5 25,0 30,0 30,0 27,5 32,5 37,5 28,9 27,8 22,2 22,9 Electricity, Gas and Water 25,0 15,0 17,5 25,0 15,0 17,5 25,0 27,5 22,5 23,7 25,0 16,7 25,7 Construction 25,0 22,5 30,0 27,5 30,0 25,0 17,5 25,0 25,0 34,2 38,9 50,0 28,6 Wholesale and Retail Trade 22,5 25,0 32,5 22,5 17,5 25,0 25,0 25,0 35,0 28,9 33,3 30,6 28,6 22,5 20,0 22,5 25,0 27,5 25,0 27,5 20,0 27,5 26,3 22,2 13,9 17,1 25,0 22,5 27,5 20,0 30,0 27,5 30,0 37,5 25,0 31,6 30,6 19,4 22,9 17,5 12,5 25,0 40,0 30,0 25,0 30,0 22,5 20,0 23,7 25,0 16,7 17,1 25,0 22,5 40,0 25,0 22,5 17,5 37,5 27,5 25,0 23,7 36,1 22,2 34,3 5,0 5,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,5 11,1 11,1 2,9 15,0 12,5 27,5 20,0 22,5 12,5 20,0 17,5 27,5 23,7 16,7 11,1 11,4 10,0 17,5 20,0 12,5 22,5 17,5 25,0 30,0 32,5 21,1 11,1 16,7 17,1 25,0 17,5 15,0 17,5 15,0 22,5 20,0 20,0 17,5 15,8 19,4 19,4 20,0 10,0 5,0 15,0 10,0 12,5 17,5 17,5 12,5 20,0 15,8 16,7 13,9 2,9 2,5 5,0 7,5 7,5 7,5 2,5 2,5 - - - 2,8 - - 10,0 12,5 7,5 7,5 10,0 7,5 2,5 7,5 7,5 15,8 13,9 8,3 11,4 10,0 5,0 10,0 5,0 - 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5 5,3 5,6 13,9 11,4 27,5 22,5 27,5 25,0 32,5 25,0 35,0 40,0 30,0 26,3 22,2 19,4 22,9 15,0 22,5 25,0 17,5 17,5 25,0 27,5 22,5 22,5 34,2 36,1 38,9 25,7 15,0 17,5 17,5 17,5 17,5 12,5 20,0 15,0 10,0 15,8 22,2 19,4 20,0 12,5 10,0 12,5 12,5 17,5 15,0 17,5 17,5 22,5 18,4 25,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 20,0 20,0 20,0 10,0 10,0 25,0 25,0 30,0 26,3 33,3 38,9 25,7 57,5 30,0 40,0 50,0 50,0 45,0 65,0 57,5 60,0 57,9 72,2 72,2 60,0 Real Estate, Leasing and Company Services Activities Government Administrative, Defence and Compulsory Social Security Educational Services Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Communal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Communal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Export Loans Usage Import Loans Orientation Other Loans Total *) II 2020 Investment Loans Health Services and Social Work Activities Public Services, Social Cultural, Entertainment and Personal Act. Personal Services Serving Households International Agencies and Other Extra International Organization Activities that Undefined Group of Debtors I 2019 Working Capital Loans Accomodation, Food and Baverage Services Activities Transportation, Storage and Communication Financial Intermediaries Economic Sectors 2018 Commencing in Q2/2021, the survey questionnaire was refined, with the question concerning which loan types have deviated from growth targets thus omitted. Banking Survey 6
7. Table 3 Period Priority of New Loans Disbursement Type of Loans Based on Usage Consumer Loans Loans in Detail 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Working Capital Loans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Investment Loans 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Consumer Loans 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Housing /Property 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Motor Vehicles 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 Wholesale and Retail Trade 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 Accomodation, Food and Baverage Services Activities Transportation, Storage and Communication Financial Intermediaries 3 3 3 3 3 3 Credit Card Multi Purpose Loans Non-collateral loans 3 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction Economic Estimation Sectors per Quarter 3 Real Estate, Leasing and Company Services Activities Government Administrative, Defence and Compulsory Social Security Educational Services 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 Health Services and Social Work Activities Public Services, Social Cultural, Entertainment and Personal Act. Personal Services Serving Households International Agencies and Other Extra International Organization Activities that Undefined Group of Debtors Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Communal Business Credit) Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (Non Communal Business Credit) Non Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Export Loans Usage Import Loans Orientation Other Loans Banking Survey 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
8. Table 4 Period Prediction for Deposits Growth (Weight Net Balance, WNB) Group of Bank Large Banks Medium Banks Estimation per Quarter Small Banks Total Banking Survey Type of Deposit 2018 I II 2019 2020 III IV I II III IV I 2021 2022 II III IV I II III IV I Demand Deposit 25,0 8,0 -2,7 89,7 30,4 90,3 86,9 81,6 6,8 27,1 38,2 86,3 56,8 49,4 36,7 94,1 18,5 Saving Deposit 30,1 58,1 87,4 58,5 46,7 80,1 91,7 88,8 75,0 85,8 60,3 89,6 43,4 70,6 63,7 93,1 87,0 Time Deposit 18,5 59,4 12,0 94,8 56,3 18,1 44,1 79,8 -4,3 41,4 67,4 75,2 -8,9 -35,0 51,9 56,3 2,4 Total 27,1 89,0 88,0 93,4 53,8 95,5 87,7 73,9 10,2 44,3 80,8 88,9 16,7 42,8 76,0 79,0 16,8 Demand Deposit 65,6 89,3 80,6 100,0 68,1 57,6 46,0 -18,3 54,5 73,0 57,8 15,4 16,7 53,3 32,2 42,0 41,3 Saving Deposit 71,6 53,7 89,3 91,8 89,5 91,0 86,0 46,4 78,6 77,8 62,7 51,1 63,8 71,3 73,6 77,1 90,0 Time Deposit 81,9 89,3 77,5 100,0 89,5 37,5 -8,2 -1,5 73,5 53,6 42,1 13,0 38,5 39,5 51,0 51,5 26,6 Total 92,2 100,0 100,0 100,0 69,3 91,8 52,1 38,4 87,8 29,0 67,1 28,9 40,5 7,0 19,6 42,2 46,0 Demand Deposit 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 100,0 100,0 100,0 -100,0 Saving Deposit 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Time Deposit 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 100,0 -100,0 100,0 100,0 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 100,0 -100,0 100,0 100,0 Demand Deposit 25,5 9,6 -1,1 88,2 30,6 89,7 86,1 79,8 7,7 27,8 39,4 85,2 56,2 49,4 36,6 93,5 18,8 Saving Deposit 30,6 58,0 87,4 58,0 46,6 80,3 91,6 88,0 75,1 85,7 60,9 89,0 43,7 70,6 63,9 92,9 87,0 Time Deposit 19,5 60,0 13,2 93,1 55,8 18,5 43,2 78,3 -2,8 41,6 64,8 74,2 -8,2 -33,9 51,8 56,3 2,9 Total 60,0 89,2 88,3 91,7 53,1 95,4 87,1 73,3 11,6 44,0 80,8 88,0 17,1 75,1 78,5 17,4 42,4 8
9. Table 5 Period Prediction for Funds and Loans Interest Rates 2021 III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Cost of Funds 5 ,70% 5,51% 5,67% 5,88% 6,02% 6,25% 5,97% 5,87% 5,54% 5,60% 5,10% 4,70% 4,24% Cost of Loanable Funds 9,16% 9,07% 8,92% 9,28% 9,38% 9,57% 9,16% 8,92% 8,64% 8,29% 7,92% 7,47% 6,94% Cost of Funds 1,63% 1,71% 1,76% 1,96% 2,06% 2,20% 2,13% 2,00% 2,09% 2,22% 2,07% 1,46% 1,22% Cost of Loanable Funds 3,57% 3,45% 3,27% 3,41% 3,72% 4,25% 3,62% 3,78% 3,52% 3,30% 3,28% 2,76% 2,75% IDR USD IDR Working Capital Loans 11,81% 11,43% 11,44% 11,64% 11,37% 11,51% 11,38% 11,37% 11,21% 10,80% 10,53% 10,50% 10,36% Investment Loans 12,12% 11,90% 11,62% 11,81% 11,55% 11,60% 11,58% 11,39% 11,27% 10,81% 10,55% 10,74% 10,76% Consumer Loans 14,58% 14,14% 13,28% 13,93% 12,85% 12,96% 13,18% 13,04% 12,94% 12,96% 12,28% 12,76% 12,76% Working Capital Loans 6,16% 6,02% 5,87% 6,28% 6,32% 6,43% 6,10% 6,17% 6,12% 5,97% 5,40% 5,12% 5,01% Investment Loans 6,43% 6,09% 6,38% 6,77% 6,28% 6,51% 6,18% 6,14% 6,12% 5,88% 5,40% 5,00% 4,93% Consumer Loans 7,01% 7,43% 7,48% 8,37% 7,26% 7,64% 6,91% 6,98% 8,31% 7,43% 6,76% 6,88% 6,39% Housing/ Property 11,25% 11,60% 11,10% 11,37% 11,39% 11,36% 11,30% 11,11% 11,07% 11,13% 10,55% 10,40% 10,43% Motor Vehicles 12,68% 12,73% 12,17% 12,21% 12,04% 12,38% 11,36% 11,29% 11,10% 11,11% 9,99% Credit Card 26,92% 24,63% 25,13% 24,13% 24,98% 23,38% 25,42% 25,54% 25,68% 24,32% 24,04% 23,24% 21,48% Multi Purpose Loans 14,39% 14,38% 13,30% 14,27% 12,81% 12,37% 12,70% 12,68% 12,35% 12,61% 11,87% 11,85% 12,12% Non-collateral loans 20,54% 20,11% 20,47% 19,63% 21,13% 20,01% 20,76% 20,88% 20,23% 20,47% 22,16% 19,27% 19,36% 2018 2019 II* 10,88% 11,33% 2020 2021 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Cost of Funds 5,77% 5,74% 5,62% 5,81% 5,93% 6,02% 6,15% 5,90% 5,79% 5,46% 5,38% 5,21% 4,71% 4,37% 3,95% 3,97% 3,65% Cost of Loanable Funds 9,26% 9,19% 9,16% 9,07% 9,35% 9,45% 9,51% 9,09% 8,81% 8,44% 8,20% 8,13% 7,55% 7,09% 6,76% 6,60% 6,08% Cost of Funds 1,69% 1,76% 1,83% 1,87% 2,05% 2,10% 2,66% 2,09% 1,95% 1,94% 1,85% 1,70% 1,35% 1,24% 1,14% 1,32% 1,03% Cost of Loanable Funds 3,88% 3,74% 3,62% 3,44% 3,47% 3,83% 4,34% 3,58% 3,56% 3,51% 3,26% 3,29% 2,76% 3,28% 2,56% 2,70% 2,24% Working Capital Loans 12,24% 11,78% 11,51% 11,44% 11,69% 11,38% 11,49% 11,37% 11,38% 11,17% 10,72% 10,75% 10,67% 10,39% 10,07% 10,08% 10,30% Investment Loans 11,89% 12,18% 12,02% 11,66% 11,84% 11,51% 11,68% 11,51% 11,48% 11,22% 10,75% 10,62% 10,79% 10,80% 10,29% 10,05% 10,71% Consumer Loans 15,08% 14,50% 14,15% 13,36% 13,96% 12,91% 13,25% 13,15% 13,03% 12,93% 12,93% 12,43% 12,89% 12,74% 12,07% 12,73% 12,90% Working Capital Loans 6,03% 6,17% 6,10% 5,87% 6,11% 6,28% 6,27% 6,08% 6,13% 6,00% 5,87% 5,54% 5,33% 5,03% 4,99% 5,02% 5,10% Investment Loans 6,47% 6,43% 6,17% 6,39% 6,80% 6,26% 6,32% 6,16% 6,12% 6,01% 5,79% 5,45% 5,11% 4,94% 4,78% 4,78% 5,09% Consumer Loans 7,80% 7,03% 7,50% 7,23% 7,98% 7,23% 7,64% 6,86% 6,96% 8,28% 7,45% 6,71% 6,86% 6,39% 6,07% 6,37% 6,20% Housing/ Property 11,78% 11,49% 11,65% 11,17% 11,50% 11,22% 11,43% 11,26% 11,02% 10,98% 11,08% 10,73% 10,60% 10,36% 9,97% 10,09% 9,98% Motor Vehicles 13,26% 12,91% 12,93% 12,67% 12,39% 12,07% 12,42% 11,29% 11,20% 10,94% 10,99% 10,34% 11,27% 11,38% 10,76% 11,02% 10,39% Credit Card 22,59% 26,55% 24,31% 25,14% 23,80% 24,99% 23,62% 25,42% 25,51% 25,64% 24,12% 24,00% 23,21% 21,45% Multi Purpose Loans 15,01% 14,37% 14,07% 13,57% 14,68% 12,77% 12,74% 12,66% 12,61% 12,27% 12,55% 11,90% 11,96% 12,20% Non-collateral loans 21,03% 20,53% 20,54% 19,75% 18,91% 21,22% 19,71% 20,74% 20,90% 20,25% 19,72% 18,96% 19,41% 19,57% USD IDR ISD IDR Others Period Type of Type of Fund and Loans Currency 14,79% 15,15% 2018 I II 2019 III IV Estimation 2018 IDR USD IDR Whole Year Estimation 2022 Type of Type of Fund and Loans Currency IDR Estimation per Quarter 2020 II USD Period 2019 I IDR Realization per Quarter 2018 Type of Type of Fund and Loans Currency USD IDR Cost of Funds I II 2020 III IV Estimation 2019 I II 13,82% 2021 III IV Estimation 2020 I II III IV E s t i ma t i o n Estimation 2021 2022 5,78% 5,67% 5,80% 5,98% 6,00% 6,10% 5,81% 5,66% 5,44% 5,38% 5,22% 4,71% 4,37% 4,15% 4,22% 3,71% Cost of Loanable Funds 9,21% 9,17% 9,00% 9,36% 9,42% 9,47% 9,09% 8,86% 8,41% 8,15% 8,07% 7,44% 6,89% 7,05% 6,21% 5,93% Cost of Funds 1,83% 1,88% 1,90% 2,12% 2,14% 2,25% 2,09% 1,96% 1,95% 1,88% 1,72% 1,35% 1,48% 1,23% 1,47% 1,03% Cost of Loanable Funds 3,89% 3,67% 3,43% 3,51% 3,85% 4,34% 3,61% 3,55% 3,49% 3,30% 3,32% 2,75% 3,49% 2,81% 2,60% 2,02% Working Capital Loans 11,80% 11,50% 11,43% 11,70% 11,38% 11,54% 11,36% 11,22% 11,13% 10,72% 10,73% 10,66% 10,49% 10,07% 9,77% 10,31% Investment Loans 12,16% 12,03% 11,64% 11,82% 11,48% 11,61% 11,52% 11,28% 11,09% 10,73% 10,63% 10,79% 10,89% 10,45% 10,14% 10,59% Consumer Loans 14,53% 14,18% 13,36% 14,04% 12,90% 13,46% 12,47% 12,91% 12,95% 12,98% 12,46% 12,94% 12,93% 11,59% 12,48% 12,87% Working Capital Loans 6,19% 6,14% 5,87% 6,14% 6,28% 6,35% 6,08% 6,15% 5,99% 5,90% 5,55% 5,34% 5,20% 4,95% 4,77% 5,03% Investment Loans 6,46% 6,21% 6,39% 6,82% 6,27% 6,54% 6,15% 6,13% 5,97% 5,83% 5,50% 5,12% 5,02% 5,13% 4,94% 4,95% Consumer Loans 7,11% 7,53% 7,23% 7,98% 7,30% 7,64% 7,34% 6,91% 8,23% 7,41% 6,71% 6,86% 6,32% 7,60% 5,95% 5,57% Housing/ Property 11,50% 11,64% 11,14% 11,54% 11,39% 11,37% 11,26% 11,00% 10,96% 11,07% 10,72% 10,61% 10,39% 10,20% 10,08% 9,86% Motor Vehicles 12,70% 12,93% 12,66% 12,61% 12,10% 12,42% 11,31% 11,28% 10,96% 11,04% 10,38% 11,27% 11,40% 10,88% 11,04% 10,56% Credit Card 26,57% 24,33% 25,14% 23,80% 24,96% 22,76% 25,42% 25,51% 25,64% 24,12% 24,00% 23,21% 21,45% Multi Purpose Loans 14,17% 14,09% 13,38% 14,40% 12,80% 12,84% 12,74% 12,72% 12,27% 12,57% 11,96% 12,00% 12,21% Non-collateral loans 20,55% 20,56% 19,81% 18,89% 21,23% 19,78% 20,72% 19,97% 20,24% 19,71% 18,98% 19,39% 19,57% Others 20,55% 20,56% 19,81% 18,89% 21,23% 19,78% 20,72% 19,97% 20,24% 19,71% 18,98% 19,39% 19,57% 14,51% 14,98% 13,00% *) Commencing in Q2/2021, the survey questionnaire was refined, with the question concerning interest rate realization in the quarter of the survey period thus omitted. **) Also commencing in Q2/2021, the question concerning lending rates on consumer loans was broken down into three loan types, namely housing loans, automotive loans and other consumer loans, replacing credit cards, multipurpose loans and unsecured loans. Banking Survey 9
10. METHODOLOGY The Banking Survey (previously the Bank Loan Survey) has been conducted quarterly since Quarter III 1999 in order to collate early information concerning banking policy in the disbursement of credit, funding and setting interest rates, the supply and demand of new loans as well as to collate comprehensive banking information that is unavailable through the Monthly Reports of Commercial Banks (LBU). The latest survey is conducted in December 2021. The sample is selected using purposive sampling of +40 commercial banks with head offices in Jakarta and a credit share accounting for around 80% of the national total. Data is processed using the net weighted balance method, namely that the answers provided by respondents are multiplied by their respective credit weighting (totalling 100%), with the difference between the percentage of respondents whose answers increased and those whose answers decreased subsequently calculated. Banking Survey The Bank Lending Policy Index is calculated using the weighted net balance (WNB) based on the credit weight of each respondent to total credit and the weight of the response (Tighter (1), Slightly Tighter (0.5), Unchanged (0), Slightly Looser (-0.5) and Looser (-1)), with a minimum WNB of -100 and maximum of 100. A WNB value > 0 indicates tighter lending policy, WNB = 0 is unchanged and WNB < 0 indicates looser lending policy. 10