GCC Daily Market Update - 30 December

Transcription

1. December 30 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,727.0 30,335.7 12,843.5 6,602.7 13,761.4 5,611.8 1,459.7 27,568.2 26,568.5 3,379.0 47,613.1 (8.3) (68.3) 4.6 100.5 (28.9) 23.4 20.4 714.1 253.9 (18.2) 259.3 (0.2) (0.2) 0.0 1.6 (0.2) 0.4 1.4 2.7 1.0 (0.5) 0.6 2.9 2.4 4.7 5.4 3.5 1.7 13.7 4.3 0.9 (0.4) 7.8 15.4 6.3 47.1 (12.5) 3.9 (6.1) 27.6 16.5 (5.8) 10.8 15.4 10,500.1 8,746.8 5,099.0 2,525.0 5,578.5 3,642.1 1,497.4 553.1 5,420.2 (59.3) 31.4 (7.3) 10.4 23.2 17.6 7.3 1.0 16.3 (0.6) 0.4 (0.1) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 2.3 (0.0) 2.7 4.4 2.2 (0.0) 1.3 0.9 3.8 0.7 4.3 0.5 (8.7) (11.2) (8.5) (7.0) (2.9) 26.3 51.1 48.0 2.5 1,879.7 355.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.5 (1.7) 0.5 0.8 7.0 0.1 (0.5) 7.8 6.5 (16.4) 6.0 4.3 (22.3) (20.9) 10.1 23.6 27.5 Global The US equity markets ended lower yesterday, as there was uncertainty regarding the reopening of the economy and the approval of additional pandemic relief checks by the senate. The S&P 500 ended 0.2% lower, amid losses in Real Estate and Energy stocks. The European markets ended higher yesterday, driven by anticipation of a fresh stimulus and optimism around the European Union vaccination program. The Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.8% to end at 401.6. Consumer Non-Cyclical stocks were the notable sector gainers. In Asia, the Nikkei index ended higher yesterday, as investors hoped that the US stimulus package would be expanded. The index was also supported by optimism around the Brexit trade deal. GCC Most GCC markets ended on a positive note yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index increased by 0.4%, amid gains in Utilities and Capital Goods stocks. Dubai’s index increased by 0.4%, with gains in Investment & Financial Services and Banking Stocks. Abu Dhabi index decreased by 0.1%, as losses in Consumer Staples and Industrial stocks weighed on the index. The Kuwaiti Index increased by 0.4%, due to gains in Insurance and Consumer Services stocks. The Bahraini index increased by 0.5%, as gains in Banking and Services stocks lifted the index. Qatar The Qatari index decreased by 0.6% yesterday. Selling pressure on part of foreign retail and institutional investors weighed on the index. Trade turnover and volumes decreased with Banking & Financial Services, Industrial and Consumer Goods & Service sectors together accounting for 76.4% of the total traded volumes. Out of 47 listed stocks, 45 exchanged hands, 33 declined, 8 advanced and 4 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 18.6 1.5 3.7 69.1 11,000 DSM 20 17.9 1.5 3.8 44.9 10,600 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 35.1 2.1 2.4 2,299.9 10,200 UAE (ADX) 21.2 1.4 4.8 89.5 9,800 UAE (DFM) 12.1 0.9 3.9 40.0 Kuwait (KSE) 35.6 1.4 3.5 80.3 9,400 4-Oct Oman (MSM) 11.0 0.7 6.9 3.1 GCC Fundamentals Bahrain (BAX) 14.5 1.0 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.5 1.4 Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Ahli Bank Qatar Islamic Insurance Widam Food Co Al Meera Consumer Gulf International Top Losers Qatari Investors Group Qatar & Oman Invest Qatar Insurance Co Mannai Corporation Inma Holding Company Close Price 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM 3.6 6.9 6.3 20.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 6.9 3.1 (6.6) 34.1 (1.6) 6.9 1,233.8 13.7 2.8 29.5 14.4 (7.1) 508.6 13.3 34.0 22.5 20.3 (2.1) 5,578.4 NA 1.8 0.9 2.4 3.0 5.1 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (2.0) (1.6) (1.5) (1.3) (1.2) 2.3 32.3 (24.1) (1.6) 168.5 1.8 1,221.8 29.2 31.5 1,712.9 22.1 (23.1) 720.3 NA (2.6) 903.1 NA 164.3 731.3 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,500.1 400.0 200.0 0.0 18-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov Index Volume (mn) 29-Nov 13-Dec 27-Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 4,274.3 8,147.5 3,113.1 2,415.4 1,938.8 1,035.6 3,296.2 1D Change (%) (0.4) (0.3) (0.9) (0.8) (0.2) (1.0) (0.3) Buy (%) 38.3 32.1 70.4 11.0 18.6 29.6 Sell (%) 31.0 27.2 58.2 12.2 29.6 41.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. December 30 , 2020 223.6mn). The motive is to set off the formers accumulated losses. GLOBAL NEWS (Source: Mubasher)  The US Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell has announced that the senators would address the US President, Donald Trump’s request of sending USD 2000.0 stimulus checks to the US citizens affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Source: The US News)  The Ruler of Ajman has approved the General Budget of the Ajman Government for 2021 valuing AED 2.1bn (USD 571.8mn) without a deficit. The budget will focus on government’s strategic priorities and improve the emirate’s financial stability. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  The US Treasury Secretary announced that USD 600.0 stimulus checks would be submitted in the citizen’s bank accounts during the week.  As per Saudi Central Bank, the nation’s foreign reserves declined by 8.6% YoY to SAR 1.7tn (USD 457.0bn) while on monthly basis it showed a rise of 2.3% in November-20. The general reserves declined by 14.3% YoY to SAR 420.3bn (USD 112.1bn). The government’s current account fell by 5.6% YoY to SAR 54.6bn (USD 14.6bn). (Source: Mubasher) (Source: Reuters)  The Federal Reserve has announced to extend the last date for Main Street Lending Program by 8 more days due to rise in applications submitted. (Source: Reuters)   As per the President of Germany’s BGA trade association, the nation may see a rise in exports by 13.0% in 2021, indicating to reach the precrisis levels by the summer of 2022. (Source: Reuters) According to official data, the assets of Saudi Central Bank declined by 3.2% YoY and rose by 2.2% MoM to SAR 1.9tn (USD 506.7bn) in November-20. (Source: Mubasher)   The Foreign Minister of Germany has announced that the EU Governments have approved trade deal regulating relations between the 27-nation bloc and UK. This will make way for provisional trade deal from 1st January-21. (Source: Reuters) As per official data, remittances by expatriates in Saudi Arabia increased by 19.6% YoY to SAR 136.3bn (USD 36.3bn) during the first 11 months of 2020. The remittances paid by Saudi citizens declined by 17.5% YoY to SAR 43.8bn (USD 11.7bn). (Source: Mubasher)   According to the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, the banking sector in Turkey reported a rise in net profit by 23.0% YoY to TRY 57.3bn (USD 7.4bn) during the first 11 months of 2020. The total assets increased by 34.8% YoY to TRY 6.1tn (USD 786.7bn). (Source: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has announced to start a firm named the National Security Services Company that aims to provide private securities services in the nation to diversify the former’s business. The firm will provide security consulting, security solutions, and specialized services. (Source: Bloomberg Quint)  Saudi Arabia’s Mulkia Gulf Real Estate REIT has announced to sign a 7 year facility agreement worth SAR 600.0mn (USD 160.0mn) with Saudi Arabia-based Al Rajhi Bank. Around SAR 342.6mn (USD 91.4mn) will be used to clear debt from Bank Albilad, while rest of the fund will be used to buy real estate assets. (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Telecom Company (STC) announced to invest USD 500.0mn in cloud services over the next 5 years. The investment will be in partnership with Saudi Arabia-based eWTP Arabia Capital and Chinabased Alibaba Cloud. The motive of STC is to reinforce digital infrastructure and boost local technology ecosystem. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Telecom Company has announced the launch of three big data centers in Riyadh, Jeddah, and Madinah at an investment of SAR 1.0bn (USD 266.7mn). (Source: Mubasher)  According to Oman Observer, the nation has opened 33 projects and initiatives on a public-private partnership basis which involves investments worth USD 2.5bn. The nation is also promoting USD 700.0mn worth Waste-to-Energy Independent Power Project which uses municipal waste for power generation. (Source: Trade Arabia)  As per Bahrain News Agency, Bahrain-based Tatweer Petroleum Company is expected to sign new agreements with oil companies around the world for offshore oil blocks in early 2021. (Source: Trade Hurriyet Daily) GCC NEWS   The Chairwoman of Dubai's committee for COVID-19 vaccinations, Farida al-Khaja has announced that the emirate is planning to inoculate 70.0% of its population with the COVID-19 vaccine produced by US-based Pfizer and Germany-based BioNTech by 2021 end. The vaccine will be free of cost for the citizens and residents. (Source: Zawya) Dubai-based Etihad Credit Insurance has announced to sign a MoU with India-based, premier export credit agency, ECGC Limited to collaborate and create prospects for mutual strategic projects, identify new business opportunities and developing new partnerships between both the nations. (Source: Khaleej Times)  Dubai-based Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation has awarded contracts worth AED 1.4bn (USD 381.2mn) during 2020 to construct new districts cooling plants and the expansion of its district cooling networks. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  The founder of Hilshaw Group said the group has built a fund of USD 175.0mn to invest in the real estate sector of the UAE. He also expects the nation’s sector to flourish by 2022due to safer environment during the coronavirus pandemic than the rest of the world. (Source: Gulf Today)  The Board of Abu Dhabi-based Agthia Group has approved the issuance of mandatory convertible bonds amounting to AED 450.0mn (USD 122.5mn) to Abu Dhabi-based General Holding Corporation. The amount will be used to acquire Abu Dhabi-based Al Foah Company. Arabia) QATAR NEWS  According to the Planning and Statistics Authority, Qatar’s industrial sector’s Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a growth of over 6.0% MoM due to strong growth in hydrocarbons, petroleum products and basic chemicals in November-20. However on annual basis, PPI was down by 24.6%. (Source: Gulf Times)  According to the Public Works Authority, Qatar’s B Ring Road development project’s first 2 phases will be completed by the end of Q1-21. In the 3rd phase, Al Jazeera Street will be developed. (Source: Gulf (Source: Mubasher)    Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) has announced to receive approvals from the Department of Economic Development and the Securities and Commodities Authority for new dividend policy for 2020-22. The new dividend policy will allow TAQA to pay quarterly dividends in 2021 and 2022. (Source: Mubasher) As per the Managing Director of Wizz Air Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s national airline, will officially launch its operations from 15th January21. (Source: Emirates News Agency) Ras Al Khaimah-based Gulf Cement Company has announced that the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority has approved the capital reduction to AED 410.6mn (USD 111.8mn) from AED 821.1mn (USD Times)  According to the CEO of Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE), Qatar-based QLM Medical and Life Insurance Company will be listed on the QSE in the beginning of January-21. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. December 30 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2279 USD/QAR 3.6415 103.5800 EUR/QAR 4.4714 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3533 JPY/QAR 0.0352 USD/CHF 0.8842 GBP/QAR 4.9280 USD/CAD 1.2818 CHF/QAR 4.1184 AUD/USD 0.7606 CAD/QAR 2.8409 NZD/USD 0.7150 AUD/QAR 2.7697 USD/INR 72.9263 INR/QAR 0.0499 USD/TRY 7.3869 TRY/QAR 0.4930 USD/ZAR 14.7181 ZAR/QAR 0.2474 USD/BRL 5.2046 BRL/QAR 0.6997 FX Commentary The USD decreased against the basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling lower by 0.4% to end at 90.0. The dollar weakened, as investors weighed the likeliness of the expansion of US fiscal stimulus pandemic checks. The EUR increased against the USD, as investors hoped for a gradual global economic recovery which improved the risk sentiment. The GBP increased against the USD, despite investors engaging in profit taking post the Brexit trade deal. The CAD increased against the USD, as oil prices rose on the hope of the US fiscal stimulus would induce demand and economic growth. The AUD increased against the USD, as the risk appetite increased due to mass vaccination programs in several countries and developments in the US fiscal stimulus. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.24 0.34 (0.59) (0.58) (0.57) (0.54) (0.50) QAIBOR 0.69 0.73 0.80 0.95 1.33 2.0% SAIBOR 0.55 0.60 0.66 0.82 0.94 1.0% EIBOR 0.14 0.18 0.25 0.39 0.65 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.77 1.93 2.22 KIBOR 0.69 0.94 1.19 1.44 1.94 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 1.0% 0.21% 1.76% 1.70% 0.68% 0.45% 1.85% 0.95% 2.03% 1.43% 0.0% 2 Yrs 0.0% 0.43% 1.65% 1.26% 0.90% 1.68% 0.94% 0.65% 0.38% 0.13% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.68% 2.81% 3.0% 5 Yrs Qatar 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 16.6 (6.2) Turkey 315.7 (180.5) UK 19.9 (10.6) Brazil 147.2 (113.9) Germany 12.3 (5.8) Egypt 358.5 (148.9) France 17.9 (7.3) Abu Dhabi 40.3 (36.0) Italy 99.4 (71.2) Bahrain 261.5 (98.9) Greece 103.6 (47.4) Dubai 119.7 (88.6) Russia 90.0 (23.4) Qatar 40.9 (35.3) Japan 18.3 (2.8) Saudi Arabia 68.4 (41.7) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg Dec 47.5 46.3 10:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM Dec 0.40% 0.90% 10:00 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Dec 6.40% 6.50% 16:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Nov ($81.5b) ($80.3b) 16:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Nov -- 0.80% 16:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Nov P 0.60% 1.10% 17:45 US MNI Chicago PMI Dec 56 58.2 18:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Nov 0.00% (1.10%) 18:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Nov 21.00% 19.50% 19:00 Russia GDP YoY 3Q F (3.40%) (3.40%) 19:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Dec-28th -- 4.70% 19:00 Russia CPI WoW Dec-28th -- 0.20% 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Services Dec 48.5 48.2 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Composite Dec -- 47.8 NA Italy Bank of Italy to Release 3Q Credit Conditions and Risk Source: Bloomberg 3
4. December 30 , 2020 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 5.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 4.6 3.3 2.3 3.5 1.2 6.6 3.2 4.1 2.5 4.3 0.0 0.0 4.7 5.7 4.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.4 0.1 4.3 3.0 4.7 7.1 3.6 2.7 5.8 6.3 0.0 5.4 4.8 5.9 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.4 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.9 3.1 4.3 3.5 3.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 1.0 2.5 0.8 2.0 1.1 2.5 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.2 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 0.7 2.5 2.8 1.8 2.3 8.7 0.5 2.8 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.9 0.6 2.0 1.6 1.0 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.5 2.7 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 P/E Ratio (x) 13.7 10.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 53.1 9.6 15.5 32.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.3 14.8 13.2 22.2 13.4 30.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 29.6 20.3 54.7 24.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 14.4 17.6 29.3 34.6 54.4 10.6 44.5 25.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 13.2 28.5 19.1 22.2 29.1 65.2 12.9 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 64.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 47.7 29.6 41.0 12.9 34.9 14.6 12.5 15.1 15.8 14.9 18.2 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.4 0.7 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.7 7.5 40.5 10.2 1.0 6.4 1.2 4.5 3.5 7.4 2.2 8.3 0.3 1.4 2.3 6.2 3.3 12.4 1.9 1.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 4.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 5.7 2.5 2.9 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.0 3.7 3.2 1.8 12.3 3.5 4.0 Stock Price (QR) 3.6 4.4 1.8 2.4 5.1 1.8 4.5 1.2 1.7 17.3 9.1 18.0 0.9 1.8 3.0 8.8 20.5 4.0 18.7 2.3 0.7 6.3 15.0 0.9 1.7 0.6 11.0 2.0 1.0 18.0 1.8 3.2 4.2 1.9 1.4 2.4 2.6 6.9 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.7 7.8 1.3 5.1 3.2 7.0 - Company ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4