GCC Daily Market Update - 29 December

Transcription

1. December 29 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,735.4 30,404.0 12,838.9 6,502.1 13,790.3 5,588.4 1,439.3 26,854.0 26,314.6 3,397.3 47,353.8 32.3 204.1 127.9 NA 203.1 66.4 13.3 197.4 (71.9) 0.7 380.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 NA 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 (0.3) 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.6 4.7 3.8 3.8 1.3 12.1 1.6 (0.1) 0.2 7.3 15.6 6.5 47.0 (13.8) 4.1 (6.5) 25.8 13.5 (6.7) 11.4 14.8 10,559.4 8,715.4 5,106.3 2,514.6 5,555.3 3,624.5 1,490.2 552.1 5,403.9 (5.0) (25.3) 10.4 (1.1) 2.8 9.4 (4.1) (1.4) 23.9 (0.1) (0.3) 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 0.3 (0.3) (0.3) 0.4 2.9 (0.4) 2.8 3.9 1.8 (0.5) 0.9 0.7 3.5 1.3 3.9 0.6 (9.1) (11.6) (9.0) (7.5) (3.1) 25.9 50.9 47.6 2.3 1,877.2 357.0 (0.4) (0.6) (0.2) (2.7) 1.0 (0.8) (1.3) (8.5) (0.1) 0.3 7.2 5.4 (19.4) 5.7 4.4 (22.7) (21.8) 6.1 23.2 27.6 Source: Bloomberg Global The US equity markets ended higher yesterday, due to optimism around an economic recovery after the US COVID-19 relief bill was signed by the President. The S&P 500 ended 0.9% higher, amid gains in Communication and Consumer Discretionary stocks. The European markets ended higher yesterday, due to the confirmation of the Brexit trade deal as well as the launch of a vaccination programme across Europe. The UK stock markets were closed yesterday on account of a public holiday. The Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.7% to end at 398.6. Utility stocks were the notable sector gainers. In Asia, the Nikkei index ended higher yesterday, driven by investor optimism of a global economic recovery due to vaccination programmes and the US fiscal stimulus. GCC Most GCC markets ended on a mixed note yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index decreased by 0.3%, amid losses in Telecommunication Services and Pharma, Biotech & Life science stocks. Dubai’s index remained flat, with gains in Telecommunication stocks being set off by losses in Consumer Staples & Discretionary stocks. Abu Dhabi index increased by 0.2%, as gains in Telecommunications and Banking stocks lifted the index. The Bahraini index decreased by 0.3%, driven by losses in Banking and Services stocks. The Omani index increased by 0.3%, due to gains in Financial and Industry stocks. Qatar The Qatari index decreased by 0.1% yesterday. Selling pressure on part of domestic retail and institutional investors weighed on the index. Trade turnover and volumes increased with Consumer Goods & Services, Banking & Financial Services and Industrial sectors together accounting for 89.8% of the total traded volumes. Out of 47 listed stocks, 44 exchanged hands, 20 declined, 23 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 18.7 1.5 3.6 83.8 11,000 DSM 20 18.0 1.5 3.7 44.0 10,600 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 35.0 2.1 2.3 2,255.1 10,200 UAE (ADX) 21.2 1.4 4.8 84.0 9,800 UAE (DFM) 12.1 0.9 3.9 23.5 Kuwait (KSE) 35.3 1.4 3.5 54.6 9,400 1-Oct Oman (MSM) 10.9 0.7 7.0 2.2 GCC Fundamentals Bahrain (BAX) 14.5 1.0 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.5 1.8 Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Qatar Industrial Mannai Corporation Salam International Widam Food Co Top Losers United Development Qatar International Qatar Electricity Barwa Real Estate Co Zad Holding Co Close Price 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM 2.6 3.2 3.1 0.7 6.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10.0 3.2 2.1 2.0 1.6 7.2 (10.1) (0.3) 27.9 (7.5) 5.9 192.9 NA (5.3) 44.2 18.6 (0.6) 420.5 NA 28.6 54,916.7 NA (7.8) 352.4 13.1 1.7 9.1 18.2 3.4 15.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) 10.1 (5.5) 12.8 (3.6) 8.5 11.6 2,104.1 29.5 (5.6) 160.1 15.7 12.9 38.6 13.3 (3.8) 940.2 9.4 12.6 7.1 17.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,559.4 400.0 200.0 0.0 15-Oct 29-Oct 12-Nov Index Volume (mn) 26-Nov 10-Dec 24-Dec Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 4,292.8 8,169.3 3,140.5 2,435.0 1,942.3 1,046.1 3,306.9 1D Change (%) 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 1.6 (0.5) (0.3) 0.3 Buy (%) 38.5 22.9 61.4 15.5 23.1 38.6 Sell (%) 39.6 38.2 77.8 14.0 8.2 22.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. December 29 , 2020  The CEO of Saudi Industrial Development Fund has announced that loans worth over SAR 17.0bn (USD 4.5bn) were approved during 2020 by the fund due to rising performance of the industrial sector. The loans provided are to support promising sectors and boost the nation’s economy. (Source: Mubasher)  The spokesman for the German EU Presidency, Sebastian Fischer, announced that all 27 EU governments will approve the EU-Britain trade deal in writing by 29th December-20. The Ambassadors of EU governments approved the provisional application of EU-Britain trade deal from 1st January-21. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Aramco has announced a strategic alliance with SAP Saudi Arabia to expand the digitalization of its Enterprise Resource Planning systems. The agreement will further integrate new technologies in a rapidly booming technological sector. (Source: Mubasher)  As per sources, by the end of this week, EU and China are considering to enter into an investment deal which will provide the former nation’s firms with better access in the latter’s markets, improve competition conditions and protect the former’s investments in the latter. (Source: Saudi Arabia-based Abdullah Abdul Mohsen Al Khodari Sons Company has announced that 10 government projects worth SAR 994.1mn (USD 265.1mn) have been withdrawn, leading to initial losses of SAR 260.0mn (USD 69.3mn). (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabian Military Industries has announced to acquire Saudi Arabia-based Advanced Electronics Company by the end of Q1-21. The latter will become 100.0% Saudi-owned Company. The deal aims to improve the former’s presence in defense industries market. (Source: GLOBAL NEWS    As per sources, the US House of Representatives, led by the Democrats, have voted to overrule the US President’s veto of a USD 740.0bn defense policy bill. The outcome of the bill will be decided before the weekend by the Republican-led Senate, which will cast its final vote. (Source: Yahoo Finance) Bloomberg Quint)  As per the National Development and Reform Commission, China has expanded the list of industries in which it will seek to encourage foreign investment from 1,108 to 1,235. The new list includes advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and 5G-related technology development. (Source: Reuters)  The President of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, has announced to sign a free trade deal with London, UK. The deal will be completed after official exit of UK from EU. (Source: Reuters)  According to the Labor Ministry of Turkey, the nation will raise its minimum monthly wage by 21.6% gross and about 16.0% net in 2021 to TRY 2,825 (USD 376.2). (Source: Reuters) Mubasher)  The shareholders of Saudi Electricity Company have agreed to treat the SAR 3.4bn (USD 906.7mn) dividend owed to Saudi Aramco as a debt in favor of the Ministry of Finance. (Source: Mubasher)  The Board of Saudi Arabia-based Halwani Bros Company has suggested to increase the share capital by 12.5% to SAR 353.6mn (USD 94.3mn) through one new bonus share for every 8 shares held. The board also said to consider 15.0% cash dividends of the capital. (Source: Mubasher)  GCC NEWS   As per the Gulf News, Assistant Undersecretary - Foreign Trade Affairs at UAE’s Ministry of Economy said that UAE and India have signed an agreement where the former will invest USD 7.0bn in food processing sector of the latter. The high end, value added products will be exported to the countries in the Middle East and UAE. (Source: KNN India) The UAE Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology has announced that it has developed national system for personal protective equipment by collaborating with government and privatesector partners. The system will be operational by the end of Q1-21. Reuters)      Dubai-based DXB Entertainments has announced to hire some advisors to review Dubai-based Meraas Holding’s buyout offer of the former’s Dubai Parks and Resorts. (Source: Zawya) Dubai-based DP World has been selected as preferred bidder to enter into talks with the Government of Angola for 20 years. The plan is to invest USD 190.0mn over the next two decades to rehabilitate existing infrastructure and acquire new equipment and improve the efficiency of the Multipurpose Terminal. (Source: Zawya) Dubai-based Gulf Navigation Holding has appointed Dubai-based BH Mubasher Financial Services as a liquidity provider for the former’s shares traded on the Dubai Financial Market. (Source: Mubasher) Dubai-based Al Mal Capital has announced to raise AED 350.0mn (USD 95.3mn) through the IPO of its real estate investment trust, Al Mal Capital REIT. The latter will list on the Dubai Financial Market in January-21. (Source: Trade Arabia) As per official data, Saudi Arabia’s merchandise trade exchange with Arab countries has fallen by 19.0% YoY to SAR 150.4bn (USD 40.1bn) during the first 10 months of 2020. UAE topped the list of trading partner for merchandise trade and accounted for 41.7% of the total trade exchange value of SAR 62.8bn (USD 16.7bn). (Source: Mubasher) As per Al-Anba daily, Kuwait's Directorate General of Civil Aviation has announced to sign a contract worth KWD 9.2mn (USD 30.1mn) for establishing a new control tower at the Kuwait International Airport. (Source: Times Kuwait) QATAR NEWS  According to the Planning and Statistics Authority, Qatar’s trade surplus rose by over 28.0% MoM to QAR 9.1bn (USD 2.5bn) in November-20 due to significant rise on monthly basis in non-crude oil exports to QAR 1.4bn (USD 384.6mn). The nation’s export to Japan and China increased by 31.3% and 20.3%, respectively. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Petroleum has announced that all kerosene sales to retail consumers at distribution stations and to bulk consumers will be based on international prices from 1st January-21. The company also stated that no new bulk client will be accepted. (Source: MENA FN)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed The Commercial Bank of Qatar’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘A’ on account of strong probability of support from Qatari authorities for regional banks. The Outlook is stable. (Source: Trade Arabia)  According to National Centre for Statistics and Information, Oman’s expatriate worker population declined by over 16.0% YoY to 1.4mn during the first eleven months of 2020 as the nation was affected by coronavirus pandemic and the drop in oil demand and prices. (Source: (Source: Fitch Ratings)  Qatar’s General Tax Authority has entered into a financial services agreement with Qatar National Bank. The former also signed MoUs with 3 Qatar-based banks, Masraf Al Rayyan, Dukhan Bank, and Al Ahli Bank to boost payment of taxes through digital mediums. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar-based Ooredoo and Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings are considering to merge their Indonesian units, Indosat and PT Hutchison 3 Indonesia. The two companies have signed a non-legally binding MoU which is valid till April-21. The motive is to compete against Indonesia-based Telkomsel. (Source: Reuters) 2
3. December 29 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2246 USD/QAR 3.6415 103.8100 EUR/QAR 4.4594 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3482 JPY/QAR 0.0351 USD/CHF 0.8893 GBP/QAR 4.9095 USD/CAD 1.2854 CHF/QAR 4.0948 AUD/USD 0.7579 CAD/QAR 2.8330 NZD/USD 0.7100 AUD/QAR 2.7599 USD/INR 73.0038 INR/QAR 0.0499 USD/TRY 7.4383 TRY/QAR 0.4896 USD/ZAR 14.6426 ZAR/QAR 0.2487 USD/BRL 5.2466 BRL/QAR 0.6941 FX Commentary The USD increased against the basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling higher by 0.2% to end at 90.3. The dollar strengthened, after the US president approved the COVID-19 relief bill averting a federal government shutdown which would have started tomorrow. The EUR increased, as the approval of the US stimulus package and the confirmation of the Brexit trade deal improved risk sentiments. The GBP decreased, despite positive developments in the Brexit trade deal. The CAD decreased, caused by a decrease in oil prices. The AUD decreased, due to an increase in risk sentiments as global economic conditions improve. The TRY increased, supported by central bank rate hike and institutional buying ahead of tax deadline. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.24 0.34 (0.59) (0.57) (0.57) (0.54) (0.49) QAIBOR 0.82 0.85 0.91 1.03 1.43 2.0% SAIBOR 0.55 0.60 0.66 0.82 0.94 1.0% EIBOR 0.14 0.16 0.28 0.44 0.76 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.77 1.93 2.22 KIBOR 0.69 0.94 1.19 1.44 1.94 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 1.0% 0.21% 1.76% 1.70% 0.68% 0.45% 1.85% 0.95% 2.03% 1.43% 1.66% 0.93% 0.64% 0.36% 0.12% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 16.7 (6.1) Turkey 321.8 (174.3) UK 20.0 (10.5) Brazil 147.4 (113.7) Germany 12.2 (6.0) Egypt 359.7 (147.6) Abu Dhabi France 0.0% 2 Yrs 0.0% 0.42% 1.65% 1.25% 0.89% 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.68% 2.81% 3.0% Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 18.0 (7.2) 39.9 (36.4) Italy 100.1 (70.5) Bahrain 262.4 (98.0) Greece 104.9 (46.1) Dubai 124.2 (84.1) Russia 91.2 (22.2) Qatar 40.9 (35.3) Japan 17.3 (3.7) Saudi Arabia 70.9 (40.1) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Dec-25th Survey Prior 16:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence -- 54.2 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Oct 1.00% 1.27% 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Oct 6.95% 6.57% 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Oct -- 232.53 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Oct -- 6.96% 17:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Oct -- 226.8 9:00 Russia Markit Russia PMI Mfg Dec 47.5 46.3 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. December 29 , 2020 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.4 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 5.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 4.6 3.3 2.2 3.5 1.2 6.5 3.2 4.2 2.5 4.3 0.0 0.0 4.8 5.7 4.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.4 0.1 4.3 2.9 4.7 7.1 3.5 2.6 5.8 6.2 0.0 5.6 4.8 5.9 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.4 3.2 3.7 3.3 3.9 3.1 4.3 3.5 3.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 2.5 0.8 2.1 1.1 2.5 0.9 2.6 2.3 0.2 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.7 2.5 2.7 1.8 2.3 8.7 0.5 2.8 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.9 0.6 2.0 1.7 1.0 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.5 2.6 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 10.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 53.7 9.6 15.5 32.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.4 14.8 13.2 22.6 13.4 30.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 29.7 20.3 54.7 24.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 14.3 17.6 29.4 34.7 54.4 10.7 44.9 25.2 (H) (‫)م‬ 13.3 29.0 19.1 22.3 29.3 65.9 12.9 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 63.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 48.0 29.6 41.2 13.1 35.1 14.8 12.5 15.2 15.8 15.0 18.2 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.4 0.7 3.1 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.7 7.5 40.5 10.2 1.0 6.4 1.2 4.5 3.5 7.4 2.2 8.3 0.3 1.4 2.3 6.2 3.3 12.4 1.9 1.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 4.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 5.7 2.5 2.9 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.0 3.7 3.2 1.8 12.3 3.5 4.0 Stock Price (QR) 3.2 4.4 1.8 2.4 5.2 1.8 4.5 1.2 1.7 17.4 9.1 18.1 0.9 1.8 3.1 8.9 20.5 4.0 18.8 2.3 0.7 6.3 15.0 0.9 1.7 0.6 11.1 2.1 1.0 18.2 1.9 3.2 4.2 1.9 1.4 2.4 2.6 6.7 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.7 7.9 1.3 5.1 3.2 7.0 - Company ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4